BTC 2025 I have plotted the yearly OHL. White line shows year open.
If you think BTC is bullish then you buy the year open and hold till EOY or hodl till your heart desires.
Alternatively you could gamble and wait for a dip below year open and buy then. Or perhaps you can wait till there's a dip below year open and then wait for a reclaim back on top of the year open level to start bidding.
Regardless I see a strong bull trend:
12 years of buy year open and hold till EOY = positive return
3 years of buy on year open and hold till EOY = negative return
2015 is an outlier but despite the heavy drawdown the year end gave a positive return.
The probabilities are very skewed and its pretty crazy how complicated we make the LTF analysis and forecasts where the simplest of strategies garners significant gains.
The years following a halving year (2013, 2017, 2021) all have a 100% hit rate of buy year open and hold till EOY. Those years offered a very positive return and marked the top of the "cycle" being followed by a down year.
My personal opinion is you either buy now or buy higher later. We might look back in a few years and lament on how we had so much time to buy sub 100k.
Alts see a similar pattern. The beginning of the year is crucial in determining what lies ahead.
