Opening (IRA): TAN Jan 17th 33 Short Put... for a 1.01 credit.
Comments: Adding to my TAN position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on. Here, going Plain Jane short put, since there isn't a great advantage to going monied covered call here because the IV skew isn't between the call and put sides isn't significant.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 31.99
Max Profit: 1.01
ROC at Max: 3.16%
50% Max: .52
ROC at 50% Max: 1.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
Optionsstrategies
Opening (IRA): TQQQ August 16th 73 Monied Covered Call... for a 70.80 debit.
Comments: High IV at 55%. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against in the August 16th monthly to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I looked at doing something in the 45 DTE wheelhouse, which would be the August 30th expiry, but it was less liquid than the monthly, so opted to go shorter duration, with the plan being to roll out to the September monthly should we get further weakness and/or a test of 73. Otherwise, I'll look to just take profit at my standard 50% max.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 70.80
Max Profit: 2.20
ROC at Max: 3.11%
50% Max: 1.10
ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
USDJPY rises sharply, supported by rising channel !USDJPY is showing significant upside momentum today, trading firmly within a well-defined bullish channel on the 4-hour chart and currently trading at 153.89. This bullish move reflects a stronger USD influence, fueled by recent events surrounding former President Donald Trump.
Despite the steady push from technical factors, USDJPY may face resistance near 154.00. This area may act as a short-term hurdle, as the pair’s upside momentum may slow down once it reaches this level. A minor pullback within the channel is expected, which would help confirm the ongoing trend. This pullback could take USDJPY down to the support zone around 153.000, testing both the 34 and 89 EMAs for further strength.
If the pullback is successful, USDJPY is expected to continue its upward trajectory, heading towards the upper boundary of the channel. The next important resistance zone lies above 156,000, which aligns with the top of the channel, representing a crucial level to watch for further gains.
"BTCUSDT Aiming for 82,000 USDT ResistanceCurrently, BTCUSDT is trading within a very solid long-term price channel. With the current price fluctuating around 75,672 USDT and showing minimal change compared to yesterday, the bullish momentum remains strong.
It is anticipated that BTCUSDT could soon progress toward the potential resistance level of around 82,000 USDT at the upper boundary of the price channel.
Ethusdt broke the channel, towards the new peak?Currently, Ethusdt is having a spectacular breaking out of a long decrease channel, signaling the potential to reverse the trend of increasing. After Breakout from the upper border of the channel, the price of ETH has increased sharply and is currently fluctuating around 2,908 USDT.
With the current motivation, Ethusdt can target higher levels around US $ 3,100 in the short term. This is a potential goal if ETH continues to maintain a strong increase.
XAUUSD: Buyers Dominate!Dear traders!
Today, gold prices have made an impressive recovery, rising more than $48.4 to $2,708.8/ounce, marking a strong move with an increase of more than 1%. This recovery is reinforced by the weakness of the US dollar, along with the news that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% this Thursday. Although future interest rate cuts may face challenges if former President Trump returns, this trend opens up many positive opportunities for gold in the short term.
As seen from the 1-hour chart, the uptrend is forming and is being consolidated after the correction. In addition, the current gold price is reacting at the support zone of the two EMAs (34 and 89), creating a notable area. Therefore, Victor personally appreciates that based on the current momentum, if the price breaks the short-term resistance level near $2,710, the possibility of gold prices continuing to increase to higher levels in the coming time is high.
At the time of writing, the realization phase is forming, Victor is waiting for confirmation with the aim of strengthening further.
ETHUSDT: Promising Growth Potential!ETHUSDT is currently maintaining a strong uptrend, hovering around 2840 USDT, up more than 4.44% on the day! Notably, the Flag in Uptrend pattern is forming on the chart, signaling a great growth opportunity.
Upcoming Targets: The first target will be the resistance zone of 3400 USDT, and if the bullish momentum holds, ETH may reach 4500 USDT!
Do you think ETH will conquer these heights? Leave your comments below! Happy trading!
Opening (IRA): SMH October 18th 220 Covered StraddleComments:
Third highest 30-day IV (46.1%) on my options highly liquid ETF board behind BITO and TQQQ.
There are two different aspects to this trade, the first being the 220 monied covered call with the short call at the -75 delta. I had to route this as two separate trades and got filled for covered call aspect for a 213.35 debit.
The same strike short put is at the +21 delta strike, I got filled for a 5.05 credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 428.30
Break Even: 213.35 for the covered call; 214.95 for the short put
Max Profit: 6.65 (for the monied covered call) + 5.05 (for the short put) = 11.70
ROC at Max: 2.73%
50% Max: 5.85
ROC at 50% Max: 1.37%
Generally speaking, I'll look to take profit at 50% max; otherwise, I'll look to roll out the short straddle as a unit to maintain net delta at or below +50 (100 delta for the shares, -75 for the short call, + 25 for the short put).
11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision.
While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck).
⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located.
⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925.
⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election.
The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry.
There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV.
Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this.
⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too.
10/28 SPX
10/21 SPX
10/14 SPX
10/28 QQQ
10/14 QQQ
Gold prices to fall steadily by the end of 2024Gold prices are trending down today, falling below the critical $2,700 level and currently hovering around $2,659.
The main driver behind gold's decline is the surging USD, coupled with investor expectations that tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine may ease. Additionally, previous profit-taking and short-selling activity have further "sunk" this asset.
If this trend continues, gold may test lower support levels around $2,603, after revisiting the 0.786 Fibonacci level and declining in line with the Elliott Wave 5. Investors are advised to seize short-selling opportunities while closely monitoring market movements in the coming period!
Bitcoin Approaches Important Support Zone, Waiting for New BreakBitcoin is currently trading around $69,962 after a slight correction and touching the support zone between $68,102 and $68,976. This price zone has proven to be a strong support zone in the short term. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is in a consolidation and accumulation phase after the previous strong rally, with the 34 EMA and 89 EMA acting as dynamic support levels.
If the price holds the support zone and does not break below, Bitcoin could continue to fluctuate and form a short-term bottom pattern in this area before retesting the resistance level at $70,182. If this level is broken, a further uptrend could emerge with a target towards the $72,718 zone.
However, in a negative scenario, if the price breaks below the current support zone, BTC could face further downward pressure towards lower support levels. Investors need to closely monitor fluctuations and macro news that affect the market.
BTCUSD price analysis: Prospects of intact price increaseBTCUSD is currently trading around 67,957, continuing the recent decline. Despite the pressure on Bitcoin, the long -term prospect is still positive, because it continues to move in the parallel channel.
Looking at the technical indicators, we see that BTC has maintained its position on EMA 34 and EMA 89, signaling the potential for reversing. It is expected that, after checking the lower boundaries of this main canal and the ema, the price increases may continue. This can cause Bitcoin to aim for higher goals, capable of reaching new high levels over 73,000.
What do you think about this view? Do you believe that Bitcoin has enough power to maintain its position in the price increase or is there a stronger risk of decline?
Gold price today: Continuing momentum!Ben hello everyone.
Today, gold price is tending to decrease, after not passing the resistance vertices of 2790-2750, the price has begun to decrease and currently trading at $ 2728. This decline takes place before important events such as the US presidential election and the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
As seen on the 2 -hour chart, it can be seen that gold price is still reacting around EMA 34 and the discount has not been broken, showing that the downtrend has not ended. Due to these factors, according to Ben's personal opinion, it is expected that gold price will continue to decrease in the near future, which is likely to reach about $ 2708 lower than $ 2709.
Hedging Price Risk in Silver in a Pivotal Week This is a big week for financial markets, a long-anticipated election in the US is likely to have widely varying impacts across major asset classes. Safe haven assets such as silver stand to benefit from the uncertainty.
There is also an FOMC meeting scheduled on 7/Nov (Thu) where the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. A lower rate environment also serves as tailwind for silver.
Finally, the Chinese parliament is expected to announce details of fiscal stimulus on 8/Nov (Fri). Fiscal stimulus in China also stands to benefit silver through higher investment demand as well as industrial demand.
In what should fundamentally be a strong week for silver, prices have entered the week on a bearish note following a 3.4% decline last week. While fundamental outlook for Silver remains bullish, this eventful week may drive unwanted volatility. Indeed markets are expecting large moves in silver prices with silver options IV near a 1-year high.
Source: CME Group CVOL
Investors can strategically deploy CME silver weekly options along with a long position in silver to capitalize on the fundamental increase while remaining protected against volatility.
BULLISH FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK FOR SILVER
Mint Finance covered some of silver’s bullish fundamental drivers in a previous paper .
In brief, robust growth from the photovoltaic (PV) sector is driving high demand. PV installations are surging, with global solar installations up 29% year-over-year, driven by aggressive climate policies and energy transition goals. This increase has directly boosted silver consumption, essential for PV production.
At the same time, silver markets have stayed in a supply deficit for the past four years. Silver miners have struggled to keep pace with the rapidly increasing industrial demand.
China’s massive stimulus package—its largest since the pandemic—also plays a crucial role, freeing up liquidity to revitalize its struggling economy. This stimulus supports sectors like PV and electronics, key industries for silver usage, while bolstering consumer confidence, which translates into heightened demand for silver in electronics and jewellery.
Investment demand for silver has started to pick up pace. Since July, U.S.-listed silver ETFs have seen over $942 million in inflows, particularly after the Fed’s rate cuts, which makes non-yielding assets like silver more attractive.
HIGHER SILVER JEWELLERY DEMAND IN INDIA
The recent festival season in India saw high demand for silver as buyers opted for it over gold. Silver sales by volume are expected to have increased 30-35% YoY while gold sales fell by 15% according to data from the Indian Bullion & Jewellers Association.
Rising investor interest in silver is partly due to its relative affordability compared to gold, which is trading at an all-time high. While high gold prices are dampening demand, especially for physical gold and jewellery, silver remains more accessible, supporting increased investment.
Rising investment demand, particularly for jewellery, risks pushing silver further into deficit. While jewellery demand for silver had been modest in recent years, 2022 saw a significant increase. According to the Silver Institute, jewellery demand is projected to grow by 4% in 2024 (but below 2022 levels), with actual demand potentially exceeding this due to the strong seasonal trend. Increased demand would further tighten silver supplies, likely driving prices higher over the next year.
UPCOMING FOMC MEETING AND CHINA STIMULUS TO DRIVE SENTIMENT
China’s parliament has started it five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. A substantial fiscal stimulus plan is likely to support silver prices.
Recent economic data from China has also shown a recovering industrial sector as China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. In case the trend continues, stronger industrial demand also stands to push silver prices higher.
SILVER IN THE MIDST OF CORRECTION DURING UPTREND
Silver continued its bullish momentum from September into October but has corrected sharply over the past week. During the rally earlier this year, when silver prices corrected, they were able to find support at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. With Silver presently just above the 38.2% level, it may find support here.
Silver’s performance in the past two months has closely aligned with monthly pivot points. In both September and October, prices tested these pivot levels before moving higher. However, recent tests have shown smaller deviations from the pivot compared to prior months, suggesting that volatility could push prices slightly lower during this month’s test.
There is strong reason to believe that the general bullish trend is likely to continue into next year. According to a poll at the LBMA precious metal conference, delegates expect silver prices to rise to USD 45/oz over 2025, reflecting a 37% increase from present levels. Precious metal analysts were highly optimistic about silver, stating that higher industrial demand combined with continued supply deficit was likely to drive strong gains.
SEASONALITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE GAINS IN NOVEMBER
Silver prices closed out October with a 4.6% increase but are currently nearly flat for November. Historically, November has been a mixed month for silver, with an average price increase of 1.88% since 2000, though with high standard deviation. Notably, only 42% of Novembers have shown positive gains.
Despite this variability, past performance shows periods where silver either consistently declined or consistently rallied over multiple Novembers. Over the last two years, November has seen significant growth in silver prices; if this recent trend persists, silver could experience strong gains this month.
SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND ELECTIONS
Certain safe haven and risk assets (gold, silver, BTC) stand to benefit from a Trump presidency. Historically, elections have impacted silver prices in varying ways. Following the Trump victory, silver stands to benefit.
Looking at silver’s historical performance in the two weeks following elections since 1980, prices increased by an average of 0.7% when a Republican replaced a Democrat president.
The Democrat-to-Republican shift has led to price rallies in two-thirds of cases.
SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND FOMC MEETINGS
As mentioned, lower rates have a positive impact on non-yielding investment assets such as silver while also boosting industrial demand during periods with loose monetary policy. During the Fed easing cycles in 2001, 2007, and 2019, silver reacted positively to Fed rate cuts in 68% of cases (performance measured 1 week after FOMC meeting with monetary easing) with an average of 0.9% appreciation on the CME Silver front month contract.
Source: CME FedWatch
CME FedWatch tool is suggesting that a 25-basis point rate cut is most likely at the upcoming meeting on 7/Nov with a probability of 98%. As the outcome is largely anticipated, the impact of the meeting on silver prices may be minimal.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Silver remains bullish with strong fundamental drivers including the rapid growth in the PV industry and strong investment demand.
This week, several major events are expected to drive significant volatility in the silver market. While these events are generally anticipated to boost silver demand, prices may remain unstable and could see short-term declines.
Silver is currently trading near its support levels, but increased event-driven volatility this week could lead to significant price swings. In late October, for example, silver briefly surged nearly 4% above usual resistance levels during short bursts of volatility. Although trading volume remained concentrated near the support level, the risk of sudden, sharp moves remains. This could result in a long silver position being prematurely closed out.
With a long position in silver futures at risk from near-term event risks, investors can deploy CME weekly options to hedge a long position from near-term volatility which increases tail risk.
In the following hypothetical trade setup, investors can combine a long position in CME micro silver futures expiring in December (SILZ4) at an entry of 32 with a protective put using CME silver weekly options expiring on 8/Nov (Fri) (SO2X4) at a strike level of 31 (delta 20, premium of 0.087/oz or USD 435) offers a compelling trade setup while remaining hedged against near-term volatility.
Using a delta-20 put option keeps the position fully delta-hedged for the week, as the delta of the long micro silver position aligns with the option’s delta at 20. Since each micro silver contract is one-fifth the size of a full contract, this setup effectively maintains the hedge.
In case prices dip below 30.64 by Friday due to volatility from the election, FOMC meeting, and China parliamentary meeting, the put option would offset any losses from the futures leg.
In the later part of the month, the outlook for silver is likely to be bullish given the fundamental factors highlighted above, in case prices rise, the position would become profitable above 32.44, offsetting the premium paid for the short-term option.
The scenarios in which the position loses:
1) In case prices remain between 30.64 and 32.44
2) In case prices fall below 30.64 following the put option expiry on 8/Nov
The scenarios in which the position profits:
1) In case prices fall below 30.64 before the put option expiry on 8/Nov
2) In case prices rise above 32.44 at any point
It should be noted that it would be prudent to set a stop loss on the long futures position following options expiry at 31 to minimize losses in case of a decline after options expiry.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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Gold Dips After Rally: Is This the Perfect Buy Opportunity?Hello wonderful friends!
Today, gold prices are showing signs of correction after a period of strong growth, currently hovering around the support level of 2750 USD. Profit-taking pressure after the recent surge has dragged gold prices lower, but the precious metal has maintained its growth momentum for the fourth consecutive month thanks to safe-haven demand.
In Ben's view, gold may enter a consolidation phase, fluctuating between 2750 - 2716 USD before entering a tense period with the US election and the important Fed meeting. Moreover, geopolitical factors and uncertainty ahead of the election results will continue to support gold, while investors seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity to "buy on correction".
Short analysis GBP/USD todayGBP/USD has just broken the channel in the long term, confirming the current decline. If the momentum continues, the main support levels for monitoring Fibonacci are:
1,2809 (Fibo 0.382): The first closing support level.
1,2662 (Fibo 0.618): The important support level, may have a stronger purchase force.
1,2425 - 1,225 and 1,2042: Lower target if the decline continues.
1 hour XAUUSD analysisGold price chart (XauUSD) in the current 1 hour frame reveal a potential picture with key price areas as follows:
Strong support area: The area around $ 2,730 has proved the role of a "wall" of solid support, where the price many times found the thrust up. This price is creating great expectations for investors to buy, hoping to take advantage of the increase in this area.
Signs of weakness of the downtrend: Trendline reduces the green color that has been slightly broken, referring to that selling pressure shows signs of slowing down. However, in order to officially confirm the price increase signal, the chart should show that the price exceeds the next resistance threshold.
Expect the upper resistance area: If the purchasing force appears and pushes gold prices up, the first resistance levels to be observed will be $ 2,747, followed by $ 2,758 and 2,760 USD. These are the "walls" of the price that the buyer needs to conquer to strengthen the trend of short -term increase.
Potential trading strategy: Investors can consider the purchase strategy if they see clear recovery signals from the $ 2,730 support area. The goal will be the above resistance areas. But if the price does not hold this support level and decreases deeper, the short -selling strategies may be considered with the expectation of the price continued to go down.
Options Trading Advanced Series 1In this video, I dive into two advanced options trading strategies: the Long Iron Butterfly and the Short Iron Condor. These setups are designed to capitalize on sideways market movement. Using the TradingView Option Simulator, I demonstrate how each strategy works, discuss the potential outcomes, and share tips on optimizing them for better results.
EURUSD at Key Support – Bullish Rebound Ahead?Hello Ben's great friends!
Currently, EURUSD is fluctuating about 1,0878 in the early morning session in Asia. The US dollar decreased slightly when traders prepare for the US presidential election and the possibility that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, supporting some support for the main currency pair.
Moreover, based on technical analysis, the price is approaching the strong support area (suitable for EMA 34.89). If this support level is maintained, it can act as a platform to increase prices.
What do you think about this view? Let me know your ideas.
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Ready to Strangle a BreakoutIntroduction: Why Natural Gas is Poised for Volatility
Natural Gas markets are showing signs of a potential volatility surge as recent data from the United States Natural Gas Stocks Change (USNGSC) displays a rare narrowing of the 21-day Bollinger Bands®. This technical setup often precedes sharp market moves, suggesting an upcoming breakout.
Given the importance of fundamental shifts in natural gas inventory data, any unexpected change in USNGSC could significantly impact Natural Gas Futures (NG1!), leading to price movements in either direction. This Options Blueprint Series explores a strategy to capitalize on this anticipated volatility: the Long Strangle Strategy. By setting up positions that profit from sharp directional moves, traders may capture gains regardless of the direction in which the price moves.
Understanding the Long Strangle Strategy
A Long Strangle involves purchasing a call option at a higher strike price and a put option at a lower strike price. This setup allows traders to profit from significant price movements in either direction.
The chosen strategy for this analysis includes:
Expiration: February 25, 2025
Strikes: 2.5 put at 0.28 and 2.7 call at 0.29
This setup is ideal for capturing potential breakouts, with limited risk equal to the total premium paid. Unlike directional trades, a Long Strangle does not require forecasting the direction of the move, only that a substantial price change occurs before expiration.
Technical Analysis with Bollinger Bands®
The 21-day Bollinger Bands® applied to USNGSC have narrowed significantly, often an indicator that the market is building up pressure for a breakout. Historically, this type of setup in fundamental data can drive volatility in Natural Gas Futures.
When the Bollinger Bands® width narrows, it indicates reduced variability and increased potential for data changes, awaiting release. Once volatility resumes, a dramatic shift can occur. This technical insight provides a solid foundation for the Long Strangle Strategy, aligning the timing of options with the potential for amplified price movement in Natural Gas.
Contract Specifications for Natural Gas Futures
To effectively plan and manage risk in this trade, it’s crucial to understand the contract details and margin requirements for Natural Gas Futures (NG).
o Standard Natural Gas Futures Contract (NG):
Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $10 per tick.
o Micro Natural Gas Futures Contract (optional alternative for smaller exposure):
Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $1.00 per tick.
Margin Requirements
The current margin requirement for a single NG futures contract generally falls around $2,500 but may vary with market conditions. $250 per contract for Micro Natural Gas Futures.
Trade Plan for the Long Strangle
The Long Strangle strategy on Natural Gas involves buying both a put and a call option to capture significant price movements in either direction. Here’s how the trade is set up:
o Expiration: February 25, 2025
o Strikes:
Long 2.5 Put at 0.28 ($2,800)
Long 2.7 Call at 0.29 ($2,900)
o Cost Basis: The total premium paid for the strangle is 0.57 (0.28 + 0.29) = $5,700 per strangle position.
Profit Potential
Profits increase as Natural Gas moves sharply above the 2.7 call strike or below the 2.5 put strike, accounting for the 0.57 premium paid.
With substantial price movement, gains on one option can offset the total premium and yield significant returns.
Risk
Maximum risk is confined to the total premium paid ($5,700), making this a capped-risk trade.
Reward-to-Risk Analysis
Reward potential is substantial to the upside and downside, limited only by the extent of the price move, while risk is capped at the initial premium cost.
Risk Management and Trade Monitoring
Effective risk management is key to successfully executing a Long Strangle strategy, particularly when anticipating heightened volatility in Natural Gas. Here are the critical aspects of managing this trade:
Defined Risk with Prepaid Premiums: The maximum risk is predetermined and limited to the initial premium paid, which helps manage potential losses in volatile markets.
Importance of Position Sizing: Sizing positions appropriately can help balance exposure across a portfolio and reduce excessive risk concentration in a single asset. Using Micro Natural Futures would help to reduce size and risk by a factor of 10 (from $5,700 down to $570 per strangle).
Optional Stop-Loss: As the risk is confined to the premium, no stop-loss orders are required.
Exit Strategies
For a Long Strangle to yield substantial returns, timing the exit is crucial. Here are potential exit scenarios for this strategy:
Profit-Taking Before Expiration: If Natural Gas experiences a significant price swing before the February expiration, consider taking profits which would further reduce the exposure to premium decay.
Holding to Expiration: Alternatively, traders can hold both options to expiration if they anticipate further volatility or an extended price trend.
Continuous Monitoring: The effectiveness of this strategy is closely tied to the persistence of volatility in Natural Gas. Keep an eye on Fundamental Updates in USNGSC as any unexpected changes in natural gas stocks data can lead to sharp price adjustments, increasing the potential for profitability.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
ETHUSDT Price Analysis November 5, 2024Ethereum (ETH) recently experienced a bearish breakout below the main trendline on the 4-hour chart, signaling potential downside momentum in the near term. Currently, ETHUSDT is trading around 2.421, with both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA acting as resistance above, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
What do you think about this analysis? Do you see Ethereum recovering or is it likely to continue falling?
BNBUSDT: Potential Downside Direction Ahead !In today's trading session, BNBUSDT is facing clear bearish pressure after breaking the important support zone around $573. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 show that the downtrend is strengthening, and the price has now continued to fall to the $560 area, below the important moving averages, marking a weak signal in the short term.
It is expected that BNBUSDT may continue to correct to the next support levels at $548 and $534 if the selling pressure does not decrease. Moreover, if there is no support signal from positive news or strong price action bounce from the support zone, BNB is likely to fall deeper in the coming period.
SOLUSDT: Strong Correction – Recovery Opportunity?On the daily chart of SOLUSDT, we can see that after a sharp increase and approaching the resistance zone around $180, SOL is now under pressure to correct and reverse. This correction comes amid increasing risk-off sentiment among investors due to the uncertain global economic situation. Moreover, inflation remains high, while central banks around the world, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are still maintaining tight monetary policies.
However, SOLUSDT is still fluctuating around the support zone from the long-term uptrend line. If SOL holds the current support zone and gains buying momentum, there is a high possibility that the price will bounce back and retest the resistance zone of $180.
Good luck everyone!