Where is the support for #BTC?📊Where is the support for #BTC?
🧠From a structural point of view, a short structure is built at the 1h level, and we are at the upper edge of the resistance zone at the large cycle level. The callback is very reasonable. The support area can focus on the lower edge of the resistance zone, and the target area of the short structure is also here.
Let's see👀
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
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$BTC-Incoming dip from POC @ $91K to 50% FIB @ $83K 🧠🧐My thought process is that after using Macro 1 day charts plotting Fib from 11/5 to current along with Volume Profile for the same date range, Bollinger bands, RSI, MACD we have a strong bearish wave coming. Definite confirmation to further downside. Historically this a bearish week going back decades. The bullish gaps BTC created further adds to the current downside momentum...timing is everything with trading markets.
🔻We should expect a solid week of bearish until at least after Cyber Monday. A run up past $100K before end of year is looking more unlikely by the day. Alts are following their pattern = was slow behind BTC to flip to bullish & now slow to flip to bearish so EXPECT MORE DECLINES!
⚠️‼️If using leverage stay near 5x to reduce your risk to volatility.
👉👀Chart Breakdown = Using the tools mentioned above we have a clear indication that the price will decline inbetween the Volume Profile POC (Point Of Control) @ $91.2K & FIB 50% @ $83.1K. If the price fills the 1st Bullish Gap/Volume Profile Gap @ $85.2K the support could establish and the dip stops.
🦃 Happy Holidays, take a week off from trading...Socialize, Eat, Drink, don't worry...the markets will be here when you get back.
Overlap resistance ahead?EUR/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.48814
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.5078
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.45564
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Gold plunges as Trump 'trumps' seasonalsLast week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December , given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that.
Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead.
The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460.
note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce.
Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio.
MS
The Importance of Measuring Trading Performance with "R"In today’s fast-paced trading environment, having an effective and clear method to track performance is essential for success. This article is tailored for short-term traders who typically manage 1–3 positions at a time and are looking for practical strategies to evaluate their trading outcomes. Unlike diversified stock portfolios or hedge funds that deal with long-term asset management, this guide focuses on the everyday realities of prop and retail traders.
Not everyone will agree with the concepts I discuss in this article, but this is how I track trading performance and how many other successful retail and prop traders track theirs. This is what I do, and it’s what I suggest. Let’s explore why tracking performance in terms of dollars risked versus dollars gained—using a metric called “R”—is a superior method compared to traditional measures like percentages or pips.
Why Percentages and Pips Fall Short
Most trading blogs and forums emphasize percentage or pip returns, but these metrics don’t tell the full story. Every trader operates under unique circumstances, influenced by their account size, risk tolerance, and trading style. A trader managing $1,000 doesn’t face the same challenges as one handling $100,000. For this reason, dollar-based performance tracking, specifically through “R,” provides a more accurate and relevant measure of trading effectiveness.
What is “R” and Why Does It Matter?
“R” is a measure of your risk-to-reward ratio across all trades. It reflects how much you make relative to how much you risk. For example:
If you gain $100,000 in a year and lose $50,000, your R-value is 2R ($100,000 ÷ $50,000).
A 2R track record means you’re making $2 for every $1 you lose, while a 3R track record means $3 for every $1 lost.
A solid R-value is a strong indicator of trading proficiency. It provides a quick, meaningful snapshot of performance, and investors or prop firms evaluating your track record will prioritize this metric. A high R-value demonstrates effective risk management and profitability.
Percent Risk vs. Fixed Dollar Risk
Risking a percentage of your account, such as 2% per trade, is a popular strategy but isn’t ideal for short-term traders. While it works well for diversified portfolios or hedge funds managing multiple assets, short-term traders focusing on a few positions should prioritize fixed-dollar risk. Here’s why:
Relevance: A 100% gain on a $300 account isn’t as significant as a 50% gain on a $10,000 account. Dollar gains give a clearer picture of actual performance.
Leverage: Forex trading allows traders to control large positions with smaller deposits. A trader with $1,000 and one with $10,000 can both manage similar position sizes due to leverage, making percentage returns less relevant.
The “Pillow Test”: Your ability to sleep at night often determines how much risk you’re truly comfortable with. For instance:
With a $1,000 account, risking 2%—$20—might feel inconsequential, comparable to the price of two beers and a pizza in some countries. This could lead a trader to feel comfortable risking 5% or even 10%.
However, with a $100,000 account, risking 10%—$10,000—might be enough to keep you awake at night. For most traders, myself included, this level of risk is intolerable.
This example highlights the limitations of percentage-based models. They fail to account for individual perceptions of money and risk. Dollar-based risk management and the R-value system, by contrast, adapt to the trader's mindset and circumstances.
Why Account Balances Can Be Misleading
Account balances don’t necessarily reflect a trader’s true trading capital. Many professional traders keep a minimal amount in their trading accounts and maintain the rest in safer, in a bank account or even in long term investments.
For example, a trader might control a 100k position with just $5000 in their trading account, but this does not mean that 5k is all their capital.
This strategy minimizes risk while leveraging the power of Forex trading.
Avoiding the Pitfall of Tying Up Capital
There’s no need to keep all your trading capital in one account. Thanks to leverage, traders can manage large positions with smaller deposits. Successful traders often withdraw profits monthly, maintaining a predetermined account balance and reallocating funds to other investments or savings. This approach underscores the irrelevance of account size in tracking performance. What truly matters is your dollar risk per trade and your overall R-value.
The Personal Nature of Risk Tolerance
Every trader has a unique risk tolerance shaped by their experience, confidence, and financial situation. A seasoned trader comfortable with their edge might take larger risks than a beginner. This variability further emphasizes the importance of measuring performance through R-values. Instead of comparing percentages or pips, traders can focus on their individual risk-reward balance and optimize their strategy accordingly.
Ultimately, risk tolerance is deeply personal. For some, losing a few hundred dollars on a small account feels negligible, but for others, the same few hundred, even if the account is considerably larger may become emotionally and psychologically taxing. This is why measuring returns in terms of dollars risked versus dollars gained is more practical and relevant.
Calculating Your R-Value: A Practical Example
Let’s break it down with a simple example:
Number of trades: 20
Fixed risk per trade: (amount varies by trader)
Winning trades: 9 (45%)
Losing trades: 11 (55%)
Gains: 33R
Losses: 11R
Overall R-value: 3R (33 ÷ 11)
This means that for every dollar risked, the trader earned $3 on average. Notably, the trader had more losing trades than winning ones but still achieved profitability due to effective risk-reward management.
Final Thoughts: The Power of “R”
Measuring trading performance in terms of R provides a comprehensive and meaningful view of your effectiveness as a trader. It transcends the limitations of percentages and pips, accounts for individual differences in risk tolerance, and aligns with the realities of leveraged trading. By adopting this approach, traders can better track their progress, refine their strategies, and present a compelling case to potential investors or prop firms.
BTCUSDT- Upward movement!!BTCUSDT- Upward movement!!
Last week after Bitcoin finished the Triangle we saw another impulsive leg up just like I've said in the outlook.
So now we could see another impulsive leg up after it finished the small correction into the Daily FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the corrective downmove to finish before you take a long.
Gold will continue to grow upward after the correction!Gold will continue to grow upward after the correction!
A few moments ago price declined to the support level, which coincided with the support zone, and some time traded near this level. Then Gold turned around and started to grow to a resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, making a gap as well. When the price reached the 2730 level, it tried to break it but failed, and then some time traded between this level. Later Gold finally broke this level and rose to 2790 points, after which turned around and started to decline. In a short time, it fell to the 2730 level, broke it, and then continued to fall. Price tried to return, but failed and dropped to the 2610 support level. Gold broke this level and then reached the trend line, after which turned around and started to move up near this line. Soon, the price broke the 2610 support level and rose almost the resistance level. At the moment, the price continues to grow, and I expect that XAUUSD will make a correction to the trend line and then rebound up to the resistance level. After this, the price can break it and continue to grow. That's why I set my goal at 2760 points.
ALT SEASON BREAKOUT! XRP to $1.78 & higher! Ripples & WavesBITSTAMP:XRPUSD
Keeping it simple, Alt season is here!!!
You can see it in the ripples & waves of the XRP Chart as they emanate outward from what seems to have been a massive buy bomb! and from the looks of It, it appears it was the direct hit we needed to finally propel XRP through the stratosphere !!
It seems by all metrics that we are set and ready for market expansion for the ALT coin market. XRP only moves with the broader crypto market, so a breakout in alts, means breakout for XRP. What's more, the only 2 possible moves left for XRP both lead to an imminent breakout. There could be a retest back down to $1.20 - $1.09 area, then we experience the parabolic breakout from there or, we break straight out from our current price levels of around $1.45.
Either way, exciting times are ahead. careful with leverage, protect your portfolios and just ride the waves...... 🌊
Alikze »» BRETT | Ascending Channel - 1W🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending Channel - 1W
📣 COINEX:BRETTUSDT It is moving in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame.
🟢 It has had several positive reactions with demand at the bottom of the ascending channel.
🟢 Given the current momentum that is in the supply area and the middle of the ascending channel.
💎 If the current area is broken, it can grow to the 0.41 area.
⚠️ Given the recent zigzag correction at the bottom of the channel, it has encountered buying pressure candles that can be considered the LVL Invalidation range as invalidating the bullish trend analysis. ⚠️
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GALA short updatewell you see if it keeps respecting this trend line from the 6 hr timeframe it can go up to the 1.618 which you see the target but that will take a few days maybe but it is a good time now to go long and then take again profit around that level we had before. Cause you see it did build some higher lows there and should go up even more and if you hold longer and move your stop loss accordingly you can ride maybe till this 1.618. If you see the trendline break get out of the trade and take your profits. Hope this helps.
DOT - analysisWe have here two possible scenarios. I preffer the first one which is drop to 7.6$ and then UP. This would be supported by 50MA. Sceond one is no big drop and again UP to remove shorters at 11.5$. Because I dont know what will happen I oppened smaller long position and I will be adding more if the price will go lower - still the trend is UP. Regards.
#BITCOIN ⟶ Will it hit 100,000 soon?Hello guys. I hope you are well!!
6 days ago, at a price of 92K, I gave a signal for BITCOIN growth and targets 1 and 2 were achieved
I hope you took your profit
#BITCOIN can continue to grow to targets 100228.83, 101866.40 and 103841.86
In case of a drop, we have two key support levels for the price to return
First support: 97399.60
Second support: 95621.65
This is just my suggestion and should not be the basis for making decisions alone. Good luck and be profitable!!
Looking for sell continuation on EURUSD Market Broke and retested the 1.05000 are on tThursday and Friday. WEe now have a retest of this area on Asian Open. I am looking for a slight upward movent for market to cross my 1HR 75MA to the upside later today or tomorrow. After which I will look for a brek of 1HR 75MA to the downside,
Once this happens I will be liooking for entries on the break of !HR 14MA to the downside. I would expect mutiple entries this week.
Failing tHta I would wait for a break of 1.05600 level to initiate sells on the crossing of 1HR 14MA.
Good luck Guys
Polkadot DOT price has been “resurrected”Even “marketing promising deadens” such as CRYPTOCAP:DOT are coming back to life)
The price of OKX:DOTUSDT has entered the sales zone of $10.30-12.20, so be careful and attentive.
Those who like to “tickle” their nerves and patience can bribe #Polkadot from $12.40 to $17.40
Well, the true holders can "believe and wait" for #DOT again at $42, though per which route and when is an open question.
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Lingrid | BITCOIN Eyes 100,000 LevelThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target level. BINANCE:BTCUSDT has formed a consolidation zone following another surge. The price action has been respecting a downward trendline, but it recently broke through this line. Prior to the breakout, the price took liquidity below the equal lows. On the daily timeframe, the market formed a long-tailed bar, suggesting that it may reach the 102,000 mark. If the price prints an impulse candle, it is likely to reach this psychological level. I expect the market to continue moving higher, with possibilities of pullbacks or sideways movement at these levels.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Solana Hits Previous High And Something Else.Traders,
In the same day that BTC has almost tagged 100k, Solana has hit its previous high. But there is something else showing me that Solana will have a tough time moving higher from here. It's that blue trendline. That started all the way back in mid-October of last year. Solana had remained above it until June of this year when the market could confirm that Bitcoin was going to continue its sideways to down price action until U.S. election time. The day after the election, as I expected, Solana broke its channel to the upside. It has now catapulted to its previous high on rumors of ETF filings today. But its run straight into the intersection of our blue trendline with the level of the previous high, making this area of confluence remarkably difficult for the bulls to beat. Will these ETF rumors be a sell the news event? I mean, you have to know that big money and insiders already knew. I expect them to dump on retail like they always do, take some profits, and then re-enter once retail knows they've been had again and start to fold. I can see the price coming back down to $205 or so. But Solana is white hot riding on the back of meme coins lately, so it's also possible that we just ride under the $260 price for a week or two accumulating before making any more big moves up or down. I don't have strong conviction with either option but I do believe the least likely scenario is the third option, a straight breakthrough of our previous high.
✌️ Stew