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FED's Easing Cycle Has Opened Path for DXY To HIT 93.00 Level !For the last several months we have seen the USD rise against all major currencies and while this was happening we were technically starting to get warning signs of BEARISH DIVERGENCE in the RSI! Fundamentally the US Economy remained strong back then with little worries regarding the trade war and geopolitical issues. The markets thought that the economy wont be impacted by the trade war in a long run as a trade deal could be reached soon but its been months and the saga still goes on. The US economic data has been under achieving and the FED instead of raising rates to a possible two times this year has switched its course to cutting them. A MAJOR DOVISH SWITCH! As this happened, the USD Index fell from the highs and has now comfortably broken the triangle's lower trendline and the weekly price has also closed below the EMA 50. All this indicates a strong trend switch is now in play and we could see the price potentially drop towards 93.00 where the next trendline is present. 93.00 also is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been respected on numerous occasions. As the time goes, the picture will be more clear and clear but one thing is clear, FED's easing cycle will surely be the main driver for DXY downfall to 93.00! Many predicted that the yellow metal will rise this year and boy they were not wrong as many major central banks have switched to easing cycle. Should the FED keep easing to support the economy we could see the yellow metal reach new highs and SAFEHAVEN FX currencies such CHF and JPY Appreciate against other currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by FX618Analysis
1
1700 per ounce of gold, another crisis signal, Powell's speechFed’s monetary policy vector changes, the pressure between the US and Iran has reached a critical level, the overall high level of investor concern led to the fact that gold almost reached 1140 yesterday. As a result, an increasing number of traders and analysts are turning into purchases. In particular, Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that a breakdown of 1400 opens the way for gold to 1700. We are far from being so optimistic and we will look for points for its sales. In the meantime, analysts are continuing to look for signals about the coming crisis. Earlier, it was the inversion yield curve inversion, the departure of the Real Monetary Proposal to zero, the cycle theory, the decline of America's auto industry. The Fed is changing its approach to monetary policy by changes tightening and so on... Small-cap companies, as well as transport company stocks relative to the SP500 index dynamics, have shown the worst dynamics since 2009 (!). In theory, small-cap companies should grow much more actively than high-cap companies. And we are now seeing a kind of inversion. This inversion, according to analysts, is a disturbing signal and is a harbinger of the coming crisis. Data from the United States came out quite weak. New home sales also disappointed with 626k, missing expectations of 684k, as was the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped 9.8 points to a reading of 121.5 this month, the lowest since September 2017. Jerome H. Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said Tuesday that the downside risks to the US economy grew, but he avoided the topic of lowering rates. So the dollar received some support. Therefore we will use this dollar growth solely for the purpose of selling it more expensively. Today, surges of volatility in pound pairs are quite possible. The Bank of England (BOE) inflation report hearings will hog the limelight this Wednesday. Governor Mark Carney’s testimony will be closely heard, in the face of the recent dovish tilt. Note that the hearings will be on the May inflation report. In addition, data on orders for durable goods and the US trade balance may well lead to the formation of local trends in dollar pairs. Our trading preferences for today: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, euro, and pound. We continue to wait for a gold correction and look for points for its sales. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis as well as medium term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
TRADERSAI A.I. Powered Model Trades for today, TUE 06/25Markets to Look at Consumer Confidence and Powell's Diffidence for Direction Last week's record highs in the markets were driven by the Fed's stand on standing pat on the interest rates. Today's consumer confidence numbers could throw some light onto their rationale. And, Chairman Powell's remarks later today (at 1pm ET) could be what the markets are looking for to determine which direction to run in (or, to just keep meandering around).  Check out below the trading plans indicated for today by our models (not able to post the link here - check on our site) #ES #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Record #Yields
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Top 3 assets to sale, Libra, Trump and PowellDescribing yesterday cannot fail to mention that the markets are still following the current trends. The short dollar is one of them. The Fed's policy was criticized by Mr. Trump again. Also, praising himself Tump could not but notice that June may be turn out to be a fruitful one. The pressure that has been put on the fed carries a goal, the achievement of which is leading to dollar decrease. A sharp easing of monetary policy in the USA could hit the dollar a lot. Fed's interest-rate cut is leading to the short dollar. The USA and Iran relations are particularly fraught, against this background, gold became one of the main "beneficiaries" and settled above $1,400 ( has reached a peak since 2013). Nevertheless, we believe that the current price is a deviation from the norm than an adequate and fair price of gold, taking into account the facts available, rather than expectations and rumors. So, gold selling strategy seems to us quite an interesting and promising one. But you need to be aware that sales are at odds with the current market will, therefore, set small stops. Another interesting and promising position is the sale of the ruble. The information that Russia is planning to spend tens of billions of dollars from the Welfare Fund to revive economic growth (despite the fact that the Fund’s size is already falling rapidly: if its size exceeded 75 billion in 2017, it was less than 59 billion in June 2019). Especially when you consider that last year the Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation was exhausted (more precisely, it was formally attached to NWF, but it changes nothing). The lack of financial resources is so strong that most inviolable stocks are used. And if the oil drops below 35-40, then there will be simply nothing to protect the ruble with. And the last one but not the least one asset for sale is cryptocurrency (in this case it does not really matter what you will sell Bitcoin, Ripple, Ether or something else). Libra cryptocurrency has injected new vitality into the cryptocurrency market. At least, the current price for leading cryptocurrencies and their dynamics so far are clearly hinted at this. We have already noted that we do not share this optimism. In our opinion, no revolution has happened. Libra is a cryptocurrency and electronic money hybrid, rather than a cryptocurrency. Libra will have both an issuer, regulation, and security (all this contradicts the essence and basic concept of Nakamoto). So the current surge in prices on the cryptocurrency market is a great opportunity to make money on sales. But again, do not underestimate the " crowd madness" and should be ready to move against the open position and being "underwater". Today we are waiting for the real estate market, data on business activity and consumer confidence statistics to be announced, as well as Mr. Powell's speech. Our trading preferences for today: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, euro, and pound. We continue to wait for the correction in gold and look for points for its sales. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis and the medium term position.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
1
XAUUSD possible pullback up to @1360. Open sell limit @ 1410-14Gold made a BIG move yesterday at Asian Session, that makes it move 300 pips in less than 3 minutes. I researched that the reason behind of this is the delayed Trade War talks of the United States and China. Now the Investors are shifting their equity into the safe haven assets just like Japanese Yen and one of it is Gold. In long term XAUUSD is being seen as bullish and it might go up to 1600. I would advise to open a sell limit at around 1410 and put a stop loss 100 pips on that area, and target around 400 pips that would make your ratio 4:1 Always use a proper risk management and always set your leverage low so that you wont get tempted to open another trade. Use STOP LOSS, it is not there just for display, it makes you save your account getting burned and being available to trade in the future.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by NathanielRondon
EURUSD still short On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level at which point we took some profit. We will now hold our short position and wait for the outcome of the FED rate decision and Powell's speech on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets
USDJPY still long On our analysis on the 04.06 when USDJPY was at the Fibonnaci support level at 107.894 we advised that we would start to build a long position. The currency pair has since gone up towards 108.8 last week and consolidated at around 108.6 on the back of stronger than expected retail sales last Friday. The markets are rather subdued ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday therefore we will wait for the outcome of the FED rate decision and Powell's speech with a view towards starting to take profit at around 109.
Long
by KQMarkets
1
A new decline for Aud/UsdA new decline is expected for Aud/Usd, in fact in the last sessions the price stabilized between 78.6% and 100% of the Fibonacci retracement. Speaking about the price it was between the support at 0.675 and the resistance at 0.705. Throughout the summer it should continue to lateralize in this channel as, fundamentally, both the Australian central bank and the FED will not distort their monetary policies. At this time, however, investors and analysts are expecting a slight change from Powell. He should cut rates in the July meeting: the market has already discounted this news, causing a retracement of dollar against the other majors. For now we expect a maintenance of this level, with the dollar that should find the necessary strength to reach the main short-term supports against other currencies. Technically, on this pair the price should go back to testing the static support at 0.675. This before the monthly closing in June.
Short
by BFCMInvest
USDJPY - Key Fibonacci Support LevelWe have seen USDJPY drop recently due to an increase in trade tensions between the US and China which has put downward pressure on the dollar and increased demand for the Yen which is a safe haven currency. Additionally, the expected rate cut in the US due to fears over the economy has put added pressure on the currency pair as the benchmark 10-year Treasury's yield is at it's lowest since September 2017 near 2%. USDJPY now sits at the Fibonnaci support level at 107.894 so we will start building a long term long position and we will be closely monitoring the currency pair as Powell Discusses Policy Strategy at the Chicago Fed Conference later today.
Long
by KQMarkets
2
EUR/USD 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORT (AFTER BEAR FLAG PATTERN)The EUR/USD currency pair is moving in a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and prices have just broken out of a counter trend (ascending channel) on the 1-hour timeframe. I expect further downside of the pair after a small consolidation (breather/correction/pause) in the form of a bear flag pattern. However note that prices might skip this stage if bears are looking for "skin" (powerful enough). This should be a good scaling trade and the target is at the bottom of the ascending channel pattern at the price level 1.11870.
Short
by munyaelliott
Selling EURUSD at current levels with Targets at 1.11 and 1.09Here selling EURUSD ahead of the Brexit pantomime. We have completed the retrace since the ECB flows and it is time to start getting back to work on the sell-side in Europe. From a technical perspective, we are trading the remainder to the downside of the 2nd wave. Inside this wave 2 we have just completed an ABCDE pattern and it is time to break to the downside. All cards are in play, best of luck all those trading this one. Thanks.
Short
by ridethepig
2
EurUsd price broke again the resistanceEUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.. It is returning to the side channel that has been stalling since October. This channel is formed by the static resistance at 1.151 and the support just mentioned (1.118). The main trend of this pair has been set down for more than a year. Due to the opposing monetary policies adopted by the respective central banks. In this period, in the short/very short term, after the slowdown declared by the Fed, that will leave the rates unchanged even in tomorrow's session, a slight weakness is expected from the US dollar against the other majors. An upward breach of 1.133 will bring the price to test the subsequent static resistance, set at 1.138. A rejection by that level will bring the price back below 1.12 sanctioning a continuation of the main downtrend that will bring EURUSD to touch the 1.10 psychological support very soon. To summarize EUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of usd/jpy is not able to break upThe price of usd/jpy is not able to break up the static resistance. This because of the macro scenario we can find around the us economy. We can find the minor one around 111.90. From here it is channeled again into a very short/short-term downtrend. That should bring it back to test the dynamic support area. As this movement is one of the most common in this technical scenario. That level coincides with the EMA 200 weekly and passing periods for the approximately 109.90. Moreover, following the macroeconomic scenario that is taking shape on the US dollar, it is very likely that this trend ends on the static support. In this situation we need to be ready to open a new order as a big opportunity, we can identified this level on the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement at an altitude of 109.3. In fact, with the FOMC minutes which were published yesterday and the monetary policy that will be declared at the next meeting of the FED this will certainly remain unchanged. This policy could not even modified to make it more expansive (favoring the pressures of Trump and the markets). Analysts expect a slight short-term devaluation by the US dollar against other majors. In the medium term, is expected a lot of laterality on the major pairs. The USD against the Yen should remain within this lateral channel.  This is formed by the support area set at 109.3 and the resistance set at 112.4. Unless there are sudden changes in the scenario, this is what is expected on USDJPY until the end of the first half of 2019.
by BFCMInvest
The American indices are once again pushing upwardsAll of them break the key short-term resistance. After having passed that period of weakness characterized by bearish sessions, as we expected after Powell's conference. The three downtrends, which were due to start on March 20th post-FED, did not reach the respective support areas where we had hypothesized the target zones. As regards SP500, when price was at 2820, we had identified the possible target at 2640 points. While the descent stopped at around 2780 points. Same thing for DOW JONES, it hit the SL. NASDAQ, which should have retraced from 25750 and 7370 points to reach the support levels set at 25000 and 6900 points, stopping however at 25340 and 7250 respectively.  These descents would have had to last many sessions (forming a mini-trend in the short / medium term ) having been reabsorbed in 4-5 sessions. It is very likely that now the prices will go to reach the successive resistances. Those are placed behind of the absolute maximums to then again suffer a bearish attack. Always towards the key supports mentioned above. To summarize: we expect a continuation of this very short-term uptrend. Targets on the static resistances placed respectively at 2906/2930 points (SP500), 26700 (Dow Jones) and 7660 points (Nasdaq). We enter on a long position on the SP500 with target the first resistance set at 2906 and we keep it in the portfolio for a few sessions. Our opinion the main trend must undergo a reversal because of the fundamental configured scenario.
DJ:DJILong
by BFCMInvest
Focus will shift to additional ECB easing very soonThe removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes. History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. See tradingview for a more detailed review of the Fed. Focus will soon shift back to additional easing from the ECB who are more dovish than Fed so any upside will remain capped in EURUSD. I remain confident in the 1.09 forecast for Q2. We have PMIs tomorrow, inline or overshoots there will be enough to turn the ship south...otherwise we are set for more consolidation. Good luck
Short
by ridethepig
1
"One and Done" ... An update to EURUSD for FEDOn the monetary side, Fed taking the spotlight so let’s start digging into the details… Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy. My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at current levels and with a lingering ECB easing risk premium EURUSD will start the leg lower after we clear Fed and PMIs. From a technical standpoint we are sitting at strong resistance, any kneejerks higher (unlikely) will attract a lot of selling interest. Best of luck all those trading Fed
Short
by ridethepig
2
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points. European Macros  The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects  The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
What the market expects from the fed ?Macro view  The market expected that the FED on this occasion would not change the value of the interest rate. This had already been discounted in previous sessions. At a fundamental level, the US economy is undergoing a slowdown due also to the shutdown and this, together with the unclear monetary policy, is causing uncertainty. Investors want to see if this aggressive monetary policy can continue or if a period of stalemate has begun. The possibility of a rate cut if the situation remains stagnant. Rates  For now it is very likely that interest rates can be resumed in the next FED meetings, as the indicators on which the FOMC is based are aimed at this. The rates can be cut towards the end of 2019 if the market does not liked this monetary tightening. This hypothesis would lead the indices to follow the strongly bearish December trend. Index  At this time DOW JONES, (like SP500 and NASDAQ) tested the respective resistance area and was rejected downwards. The target to which it will aim in the very short term (if Powell makes it clear that there will be further increases soon) will be the area set at 25000 points, then continue towards 24200 if the level just mentioned should have been violated to the downside. The same goes for SP500, which will target 2640 points. The NASDAQ  should go back to testing the 6900.
DJ:DJIShort
by BFCMInvest
What will happen in the fed? No rate hikesTarget No rate hikes and this is the effect on the eur/usd pair: the price is heading towards the resistance area placed at 1.14.So what will happen in the fed? No rate hikes today. The American interest rate will be published, which will almost certainly remain unchanged. It is very likely that the euro will strengthen further against the dollar, moving between 1.14 and 1.144. From here, after Powell's speech, we think it is a good point to reposition ourselves short. The first target on the support set at around 1.12 ( the next one will be 1.10 ) Monetary policy issues What do investors expect from today's fed conference? Investors expect to understand the intentions of the Fed's next moves and its monetary policy: the market, with the stable and positive US economy, expects Powell to resume the aggressive policy adopted throughout 2018. This again means huge investments and speculations in favor of the US dollar.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Wait For GOLD to Retrace to 1270.00 Level Before Going LONG!Its no doubt that Gold is bullish in a longer term view, however for those of you who prefer a greater risk to reward ratio it might be favorable to wait for the yellow metal to retrace towards the 1270.00 level before executing a LONG trade. Have a look at the main chart, where the steep upward channel has been broken and pierced the daily 50 EMA and currently its on the path to form a H & S pattern on daily TF. If broken, the yellow metal could test the ascending long term trendline beneath and potentially offer a chance to go LONG with a greater RR chance. Fundamentally speaking, the FOMC meeting scheduled tomorrow will decide the fate of yellow metal in a short term view. A dovish FOMC update has already been priced in by the markets and a particular point to focus on tomorrow's meeting will be the DOT plot and unwinding of the FED balance sheet. Many analyst still feel the FED will hike rates one more time in JUNE and currently the market has priced in 0 rates hikes this year instead of 2 as predicted at the end of last year. Therefore it remains to be seen what happens all in all for you patient GOLD BULLS its advisable to wait for the price to retrace before going LONG for a chunky risk to reward ratio. cheers This just represents my analysis for this pair and its not a signal of any type. although i am already SHORT on the yellow metal, shall the LONG chance arrive i will post the details of entry in a new thread.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
An update to the EURUSD chart after a retrace from ECBThe latest rebound from the bottom of the channel has given a soft recovery. We are approaching key resistance areas and for those who are bearish on the USD you will need a constructive break above 1.13 to show anything meaningful in this recovery. I don't subscribe to the view that we have seen the highs in Dollar and expect these flows to continue well into the summer 2019. I am positioned as most of you already know for 1.09 and even 1.06/1.05 if we see maximum pain with a no-deal Brexit. For those who are trading the longer-term perspective , I would encourage you to view the monthly chart attached, this is a view I have maintained since last year and still expect a higher low to develop over the 1.03 lows from 2017. This will mark a very interesting buying opportunity, as the noise of a European collapse will have reached maximum volume and most will be screaming for a break of parity. Nevertheless, we will be talking more about this in a few months. All the best to those who are trading live.
Short
by ridethepig
The day after DraghiYesterday, Mario Draghi announced a new round of long-term and favorable conditions loans for the banking system. The new series of operations will be launched from September 2019 and will end in March 2021. The operations will be carried out every three months and each will have a two-year maturity. In addition, the ECB has confirmed what analysts had expected despite the last meeting at the end of 2018 (which suggested that in September 2019 there could have been a rise in rates), that is: there will be no change in the monetary policy adopted in the last years, keeping fixed interest rates at least until the end of 2019, but it is very likely that this policy will also be maintained during 2020. All of this, leaves macro analysis unchanged, it is likely that for the next few weeks the EURUSD will be laterally between 1.12 and 1.14, and then proceed in its main bearish trend with final target at 1.08 as soon as Powell resume monetary tightening. However, we expect a devaluation of the US dollar until March 20: our first target is 1.14 in the short term and then the area between 1.10 and 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
Gold: still safe (BUY)Up and Down The price having started going upward to test the resistance placed in area $ 1350 has created a series of sales which brought it back down again, with a retest of the static support located at 1280 $. Both technically and fundamentally the scenario has not changed: the trend remains bullish and would be invalidated in the medium term only if the static holder at $ 1265 is violated downwards, and there was a daily closing below it. Technical and fundamental From a technical point of view, the main EMAs are open upwards (uptrend) and the ichimoku cloud is supporting the price, obviously taking tf into consideration from the daily up. From a fundamental point of view, the uncertainty that revolves around the Fed and its monetary policy in 2019, expected softer than expected, is doing devalue the US dollar, which in the coming weeks / months, will be the crucial factor that will bring this commodity to test the area of about $ 1400 by the end of the first half of 2019.
TVC:GOLDLong
by BFCMInvest