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GOLD Could FALL Before Reaching 1370 level Amid Risk ON AppetiteAs seen, GOLD is trapped in a range bound trading and is currently en route to the crucial resistance level of 1370. However the real question lies whether the GOLD momentum can continue towards this crucial resistance amid a possible and likely RISK ON appetite in the financial markets? Today FED chairman Powell speaks which could cause intense volatility in FX markets, however it seems the market has already priced in of what is to be expected of his speech today. Markets are already in a RISK ON appetite mode amid the resolution of trade war and tariffs being delayed by the president. What is Risk-On Risk-Off Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments; when risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments. SOURCE : www.investopedia.com With the current trade war already coming close to a resolution, RISK ON currencies in this scenario such as AUD, NZD and the EURO could appreciate whereas RISK OFF assets and currencies such as GOLD, CHF and JPY could depreciate. However keep in mind these safehavens are not evenly correlated. For instance JPY could fall if the market are on FULL RISK ON mode whereas CHF could fall slightly given its assets are backed by GOLD itself. On the Topic of GOLD, the yellow metal is precious and perceived by many as a good future investment given its rising longterm value! Therefore fundamentally it remains to be seen what the chairman of FED has to say today and if the US-SINO trade deal can be agreed soon and what are their terms behind the deal. Technically speaking GOLD is headed towards the crucial 1370 resistance level where it has bounced off on a numerous occasions. Currently the price is confined in a rising steep daily channel as shown on the main chart. Should anything drastic happen such as a trade deal being closed to agreed then GOLD may breakout of the channel and head towards the rising trendline beneath. On the flip side if the trade talks are slow, then we can expect GOLD to respect the channel and head towards the 1370 level. After reaching there it could be a possible scenario that it keeps climbing or reverses to the lows depending on the technical and fundamental picture at that time. It remains to be seen what happens. this is just my analysis and not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade signal in the new thread. cheers
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF ShortThis pair is about to reach its current resistance 1.012. Getting ready for possible reversal in case USD index reverses down too and doesn't rise all the way to 100. Shorting this pair @1.005 or near it (depending on how price action plays out later) after Powell's speech later (so far I'm bearish in USD overall). Initial TP is @0.9985-1.00 and SL @1.001. www.bnnbloomberg.ca Daily: Weekly: Confidence: B (will wait for how Powell's speech will go later. Also need to close this trade too before other USD econ news later this week)
Short
by aiza_belle
EUR/USD and the Fed !New channel The price has once again reached a key level on a weekly time frame: at the price of 1,127 a static support has formed, which tends to bounce the price and keeping it within this channel, with resistance at 1,146. Very short, short and medium term The trend remains bearish in the short term, while in the medium term it continues to be strongly bearish: with the macroeconomic scenarios that have been configured, the target area is between 1.10 and 1.08, despite this we believe that this week there may be a price rebound from this area because of the conference that will be held today by the president of FED Powell, who should still reassure the market, supporting the new very short-term monetary policy that will not lead to other restrictions. Consequences This should result in a sale on the US dollar by investors, devaluing the USD against the other majors, and therefore also against the euro (which remains highly unstable currency and will continue to depreciate for most of 2019). Join us for further analysis on: Instagram : www.instagram.com Telegram: t.me Facebook Page: www.facebook.com Web: www.bfcminvest.com
by BFCMInvest
Is this an opportunity on USD/CAD ?The price has invalidated the uptrend in the very short term, going to break down the level placed at 1.317, that was a static support that should have rebounded the price and continue the long trend. After Powell’s words, investors continued to sell the US dollar, making it weaken against all the majors. The Fed has been clear: at this moment it is difficult to think about further increases in interest rates, as the US economy is responding well at these levels (2.25 / 2.50%). At least for the entire first half of 2019 it will be difficult for him to return to his steps. The market will be hostile to a strengthening of the US currency. This pair is particularly uncertain because the Bank of Canada also does not intend to change its monetary policy, so it is very likely that it will continue to proceed sideways for the next few months in the channel between the support at 1,298 and resistance at 1.33. It is advisable to remain flat until the fundamentals change or one of the two levels mentioned above is broken. It should be noted that on a daily tf, the price has reached the dynamic support identified by the EMA200, which seems to have held: it could be a good opportunity to enter the market from here with target the level of minor importance placed at 1.326 with a “buy“ order.
by BFCMInvest
Nasdaq 100: NAS100 Powell Rides to the Rescue Nasdaq 100 NAS100 After an early session fail at the neckline Nasdaq duly found the support it needed but it arrived just above the 6698 line and then shot higher as Powell rode in to the rescue. It's since powered straight to the next target at 6902-6919 after a high at 6917. Thank you Jerry. Thanks to him that IHS completed in a few minutes flat :) It's shot up 3% today and is a little over-extended right now. As with the other indices covered tonight it would be handy if it came off from here, breaking below 6900 to trigger further weakness back to 6795 where it should bounce again (and from the neckline at lowest) in the event of weakness once 6900 is lost. And if we don't get the expected consolidation from current levels it can push higher still to 6955 at likely best overnight before it begins to consolidate from there - if so will have to see how it holds up at 6903-0 on any retests to judge how strong it's likely to be during tomorrow's session. Has to break above 6920 to scalp long to 6955 and then has to break above 6960 to follow long again (in event of no consolidation) to 7096.
FX:NAS100Long
by sumastardon
AUDUSD Short - Bat Formation and Inverted HammerAUDUSD was seen resisted again at a 2-month long resistance level 0.73. A bat formation is formed this time and an inverted hammer has appeared right at point D of the bat formation. As the dollar has retraced significantly after break above 97, it is very likely that the dollar may resume appreciation. Powell has stayed hawkish on rate hike too. Therefore, with a strengthening dollar and a bearish formation, AUDUSD is very likely to create a wave or two of depreciation.
Short
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD bearish below 1,1768- Jerome Powell in the spotlightHello traders, Jerome Powell is going to deliver his first testimony about monetary policy today at 16:00 GMT +2. Either today and tomorrow´s testimony in the senate are going to be crucial in order to catch more interest rate hike signs. Currently EURUSD is facing a clearly bearish medium term trend, unable to clearly break the 1,1768 level, quoting below the 50 SMA and unable to break the 0,386 FIBO neither. ECB is not expected to have interest rate hikes at least untill summer 2019, even though inflation and GDP growth are aproaching targets. While EURUSD remains below 1,1768 the bearish trend will prevail ; lets see Powell´s comments!! Enjoy your trading! Have a look at my previous forecasts: JPM UKOIL
by Adrian_Armentia
Outlook ahead of FOMCHello Traders! We're expecting the Fed's to raise the interest rates by a quarter at 14:00 EST and we're also awaiting on Powell's first speech. My bias remains bearish for the FX:EURUSD but i do expect a push higher prior to the drop to new lows given that the current rate hike is already priced in and what everyone is waiting for is the details on the plans for the year and Powell's commentary. The institutional data we have indicates slight long profit taking activity at the Weekly/Monthly supply which emboldens our short bias. In the case of a push higher im looking for the 1.2340 area to look for shorts but if we have a break & close below 1.2240 i will scale in my shorts from that point forward with a 1st target around 1.2180
Short
by MarioAlzuri