AUDUSD trading scalpingAustralian Dollar declines due to increased risk aversion, awaits US Services PMI
The Australian Dollar declines following the soft Purchasing Managers Index data release on Monday. Australia Composite PMI fell to 49.9 in July from 50.2 in June, with Services PMI decreasing to 50.4 from 51.8. The US Dollar lost ground as recent downbeat employment data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
BUY AUDUSD now zone 0.64300-0.64100
↠ Stoploss 0.63900
→ Take Profit 1 0.64600
→ Take Profit 2 0.65300
Priceaction
GBPUSD scalping signalsGBP/USD: Bulls push to test the 1.2840 resistance
Instead of continuing to rise, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is more likely to trade in a range between 1.2740 and 1.2840. Downward momentum has slowed; any further GBP weakness is likely limited to a retest of the 1.2710 level, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
SELL Scalping zone SELL GBPUSD now zone 1.28000-1.28200
↠ Stoploss 1.28400
→ Take Profit 1 1.27700
→ Take Profit 2 1.27000
Good luck everyone
Gold fluctuations in the new weekFundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) gained traction on Monday as the greenback weakened. The market is still digesting the dovish FOMC and a weaker US jobs report. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD) are likely to remain under pressure, acting as a bullish driver for the yellow metal. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could continue to support traditional safe-haven assets like Gold.
Looking ahead, Gold traders will be watching the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Monday for fresh catalysts. The Services PMI is estimated to improve to 51.0 in July from 48.8 in June. In case the data is stronger than expected, the USD could rise and limit the upside in the precious metal.
Technical Analysis:
Gold after NF formed a fairly wide trading range. An upward price range was formed with the price range of 2475 and 2420. The h2 time frame gives an overview of the short-term fluctuations of gold during the day. The 2411 area on Friday formed a critical zone around it with a reaction of 30 prices. so it became a strong reaction zone when gold broke out of the price channel.
Resistance: 2466 - 2475 - 2480 - 2491 - 2502
Support: 2423 - 2412 - 2405 - 2394 - 2385
SELL GOLD 2465 - 2467 Stoploss 2471
BUY GOLD 2415 - 2413 Stoploss 2408
SHIB Up Up Up and Away Only Believers Will be Here to StayPrice has been pushing up for a few days now and this has been great. I am still conducting research and analyzing SHIB, but do have some thoughts currently. I am thinking, SHIB is likely to continue higher after it has a decent pull back. This might happen at the 0.000015 to 0.00002 lvl. There are those that likely bought at 0.000006 or somewhere near here and will likely keep holding as long as price keeps pushing higher. If price starts ranging or has a strong push lower, there will be a lot of people who might get shaken out. Now if and when price starts pushing higher, there will be those that have been holding SHIB for a while, who will likely exit because they want to get away from the regretful feeling of getting in and having to hold for so long, to those that just want to breakeven. After these players are shaken out, I am thinking, that once price starts pushing higher (because the players that want to be in for the long haul will take the price drop as a discount to buy more) price will push back near the 0.00002, the hype might start increasing and people will come in and likely pump it up to around 0.00005. Once this happens, there will likely be another drop, to around the 0.00003 lvl, and then another pump to 0.00005. Once this is cracked, there will be a lot of news about how SHIB could drop another 0, price will pump up a little higher, then FOMO will start hitting the coin. If this happens around or near the BTC halving, price could pull back and then hit 0.00015. This would push SHIB to be the 3rd Crypto by market cap on the list, but that's if the other coins don't have similar moves as SHIB, which I think the other coins market caps will push higher also (which will likely put SHIB around the 7th or 8th position).
These are my thoughts and trading carries a lot of risk. Do your own due diligence before following anyone of taking there advice and manage your own risk according to what suits you.
Have some great trading own there.
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning.
comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways.
Invalidation is below 5100.
bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
EURUSD Analysis week 32Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD gained on Friday after the Greenback was weakened by the poor US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
With the US economic data turning sour, investors extended their losses for two days on growing concerns about a broader recession in the domestic US economy, triggering a flight from risk assets and sending equity indices sharply lower.
Next week, the US will see the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July on Monday. Euro-wide retail sales for the year ending June are scheduled for release early Tuesday. This will give us a clearer picture of the current stage of the currency market.
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD formed a wide range after the NF release with the nearest support resistance in the range of 1.094 and 1.082. On the H4 timeframe, EMA 34 is looking to surpass EMA 89 to escape the short-term downtrend of the past week. Specifically, it proves that the price line has broken out of the downtrend line. The uptrend may face the highest resistance at 1.098 when the price breaks out of the immediate resistance at 1.094. On the other hand, recovery is necessary in an uptrend. The price trend may retest the broken trend zone around 1.083 after some investors take profit. If the downtrend is established, the strong support zone next week will be 1.075.
Resistance: 1.094-1.098
Support: 1.083-1.075
Trading Signals
BUY EURUSD zone 1.075-1.073 Stoploss 1.071
SELL GBPUSD zone 1.098-1.100 Stoploss 1.102
EthereumI'm finding myself gravitating more towards this crypto over Bitcoin, and that's mainly due to Ethereum's price. I'll explain my chart along with what I'm anticipating.
What am I anticipating?
Price is currently breaking a key lower-high on the weekly, which happens to also be the same area as the monthly (key) lower-high. Once that bull candle closes pass those levels at the end of today then the weekly turns bullish.
Normally, price would run into an old key area in order for the retracement phase to begin. I'm looking for bull continuation to spike the A.T.H. and $5000 price point followed by a correction right into my area of interest (A.O.I.).
Do I have a "special" price within the A.O.I.?
I actually do! $2400.
In conclusion, I'm merely a spectator until the bears enter the market to drive price down, and if that doesn't happen due to bull momentum, I'll readjust.
M - 🐻
W - 🐻 *If today's candle closes above the key LH, it turns 🐂*
D - 🐂
H4 - 🐂
SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODULE Here I'm focusing on 1H time frame for gold. today I'm looking for buy opportunity at the breaker block by using the breakout and rejection strategy. Bullish momentum is also very strong and also we are watching the divergence. Without any confirmation we could not place our trade. Let's delve deeper into these level and potential outcomes.
Always put stoploss for your trade.
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion.
comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months
key levels: 2300 - 2536
bull case: Bulls showed weakness during the week before but somehow managed to turn the market around this week on bad looking daily bars. Unusual to say the least. I do think every time the patterns looks bad, it’s more due to the other side stepping aside than one being particularly strong. Anyhow, Market retested the ath again and printed a lower high 14 points lower. It’s the 5th time the bulls tried and failed. Do they get more or will they give up now? I don’t know. I thought the drop that started 2 weeks ago from the ath was decent enough to bring us to 2300 again but they failed at a higher low. So we are in a triangle and in the middle of it. Market is neutral between 2450 - 2490.
Invalidation is below 2290.
bear case: Not much to add because market is neutral. Bears need follow through on Monday to test the bull trend line below at around 2425. There is not much more to read out of this at the moment. Things change when bulls get a strong close above 2536 or bears print lower lows below 2390 again.
Invalidation is above 2536.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2381 and now we are at 2469. The bear channel broke on Tuesday and my invalidation was on point but my outlook was not. Always know your risk and start every trade from a risk point of view and now from a profit point of view. You will most likely never hit 90% winners consistently so get used to losers and don’t let them influence you in a bad way.
short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bearish pattern and added the triangle we are in
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below.
comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here.
current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend.
key levels: 5400-5600
bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months.
Invalidation is above 5600.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good.
short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024.
medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024.
current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500.
chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
I said that below 62300, it’s over for the bulls and also that the down move will probably be faster than the up move. Both happened this week and we will make new lows over the next weeks. As I’m writing this we are at 57817 and falling like a rock. Will look for shorts only from here on and any pullback will probably do. Will see 50000 very soon.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bull trend stalling and market went sideways for a week. Bulls want to touch the bear trend line around 71000 again and bears want to break the bull trend line and drop below 63000 again. Simple as that. Will buy on strong momentum up and only consider shorts once the bull trend line is broken.
comment: Bull trend is done. I don’t think bitcoin will see 70k for a couple of years and we are heading for 50000 over the next days to weeks and then 40000 probably this year. Bulls have a small chance to find more buyers at the previous bull trend line from 2023-10, when adjusted, could fit with the July lows but it’s not a great probability. For that they would need to stop the selling above 56000 and by this selling speed, we would get there by Tuesday/Wednesday. For now we have a very tight bear channel down, which indeed was stronger than the up move, so far.
current market cycle: Trading range or very broad bear channel, since we are making lower highs and lower lows over the last 3 months.
key levels: 53000-70000
bull case: Bulls touched 70000 and boi did those disappointed bulls use that price to sell out of their longs. Market never looked back since and we are 10000 points lower again. Only thing bulls can pray for now, is a higher low above 53000, to keep a trading range going but other than that, nothing. Personally I do think that was the dead cat bounce and below 50000 we will see some real pain for Bitcoin. If bulls manage to get above 66000 again, I was wrong and we move more sideways.
Invalidation is below 53000.
bear case: Market changed directions as quickly as on the way up. Bears are in control again and want to print 50000. If they do, I do believe we won’t get above 63000 on a pullback, due to many bulls having stops there and giving up. If bears fumble it again and let the bull gap down to 52000 stay open, we will continue the trading range inside the given key levels.
Invalidation is above 66000.
outlook last week:
short term: neutral. My best guess is that market is not able to reach 70000 again and reverse over the next days. Obviously too early to talk about shorts but I have no interest in longs above 66000.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 68000 and now we are at 60350. The high was 70015. I was wrong about market won’t print 70000 but right about the reversal. I consider a 15 point miss in Bitcoin pretty amazing.
short term: Market only knows one direction currently. The weekend selling was almost 5000 points so far. Any pullback will be good for me to load on shorts again.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 3000 points above the recent low of 53500. Since market had it’s dead cat bounce, I consider the last bigger pullback to be done and we will get much lower lows over the next months and more shallow pullbacks.
current swing trade: none
chart update: Bull trend line is gone, added tight bear channel and adjusted the broken bull trend line from 2023-10 to be a potential support line next week.
GAIL: This is why People lose moneyThis is one important case study as to why investors lose money in the stock market.
Now if you look at the chart, Here is what you see:
1. 32 Months of pure range-bound consolidation
2. Clearly defined support and resistance zones
3. Five months of consolidation at the resistance zone
4. A beautiful high-volume breakout followed by a retest.
5. This is one textbook setup for a long trade
So, We should go long here, right?
If I zoom out of the chart, Here is what you will see.
- We have a strong resistance zone sitting just above the breakout level.
- The price took a strong rejection from the exact resistance zone.
Also, Observe the volatile consolidation zone that lasted almost 2 Years. That volatile zone may not be passed through in one instant.
What we investors do is draw conclusions based on partial data and predict the price action that is yet to come. What we fail to do is observe the previous price action in its entirety.
Does that mean that GAIL will not rise in value, Absolutely not. It just means that the uncertainty it has on the charts for a mere 10% gain ( breakout to ATH Distance) is super high.
The market is full of opportunities. Why invest in something that already has a foreseeable red flag?
If you liked the read, Would you give us a boost and a follow for our efforts?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Gold retraces to Fibonacci 0.5Fundamental Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) fell sharply to the $2,371 level as geopolitical risks overshadowed market attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting this Wednesday. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June, released on Friday, showed inflation remained steady, close to the Fed's 2% target. However, investors still expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September and could provide a clearer signal after this week's meeting.
On Tuesday, the JOLT Jobs Openings and the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index for June and July are expected to show moderate declines, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.
Technical Analysis
XAU/USD’s recovery from last week’s lows around $2,350 has met stiff resistance at $2,400. This is a key resistance zone as the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart has met resistance from the downtrend since the July 17 high. However, downside efforts have been limited so far.
The intraday RSI shows moderate positive momentum, with $2,380 still holding the downtrend. If the price breaks below this level, the next target would be the July 25 low at $2,350. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,400, the broader bearish structure will be broken and the next target will be $2,430.
Bitcoin Testing and Testing Demand ZoneBitcoin is once again seeking to fall into our equilibrium zone (purple zone). Bitcoin has tested this zone several times, and if we look at the overall structure, Bitcoin continues to bounce within a range.
Our plan remains in place. Remember that markets need to make pauses or retests before taking action. Additionally, we must consider that markets, in general, have been bearish—we are in a bear market. However, the points of interest I have marked are based on historical prices and significant liquidity, so we can expect aggressive movements once the price reaches the indicated zones.
Thank you for your support, and don't fear these bear markets; on the contrary, we should average in and take advantage of the opportunities they offer us.
SWING IDEA - JAMNA AUTOJamna Auto Industries Limited , a key player in the automotive sector, is showing promising technical signals for a potential swing trade opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
Jamna Auto's chart displays a bullish cup and handle pattern breakout, indicating a reversal in the trend.
A bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe signals a potential uptrend reversal.
Trading comfortably above the 50 and 200 EMAs on the weekly timeframe suggests strong bullish momentum.
Breaking out of a consolidation range spanning over two years indicates a shift to a trending market.
Approaching a new all-time high suggests further upward potential.
A sudden surge in trading volumes accompanies the recent price movement, indicating growing market interest.
Target - 150/160
StopLoss - weekly close below 114
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
SWING IDEA - SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIASapphire Foods , a leading player in food and beverage industry, emerges as a potential swing trade candidate.
Reasons are listed below :
Ascending triangle pattern breakout observed, suggesting potential bullish continuation.
Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe, engulfing the previous 13 weekly candles, indicating a strong bullish reversal.
Breakout signals the end of a consolidation phase lasting over 2 years, suggesting a release of pent-up buying pressure.
Trading near all-time high, reflecting robust bullish momentum and investor confidence.
50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly timeframe providing significant support, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Target - 1780 // 2000
StopLoss - weekly close below 1350
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
Bitcoin Is Likely To Bounce And Continue UpwardBitcoin is back on our trusty multi-year support from 2019. I expect a bounce off of this either tomorrow or Thursday. This will likely propel us upward to test the underside of our channel. Once we break that to the upside, our target will approach quickly.
Falling Wedge pattern breakout in AWLADANI WILMAR LTD
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅On 1 Day Time Frame Stock Showing Breakout of Falling Wedge Pattern.
✅Strong Bullish Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement up to the Breakout target of 444+.
✅Can Go Long in this Stock by placing a stop loss below 344-.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND / LIQUIDITY CONCEPTIn this analysis we are focusing on (4H) Time frame for XAUUSD. Here we have two condition. First we are looking for sell and then we are looking for buy from the demand zone. Now we will wait where price go first, if price go first toward supply zone then we look for sell. But in second condition if price go first toward the demand zone then we look for buy. These are the levels of buying and selling. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
This is just my prediction and analysis.