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AUD/USD 1W analysis 13/07/21Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :) The AUD/USD market showing a lot of bearish signs after failing to hold 0.75 today and it looks like the market might be dropping down in the next week or two . a possible reversal might happen but we need to wait for the conformation on the Market price testing the support line at 0.7401 . on jun 21 i showed the 1D movement of the AUD/USD and explained how the market price is moving in a bearish way and used The Elliot wave theory to try to understand the market movement and we see that did happen in the past weeks where the price dropped from 0.77 down to the 0.74 zone looking at indicators now we see that : 1_The market price trending below both the 10MA and the 20MA (bearish sign) 2_RSI showing at lot of weakness sitting around the 41.13 (at the time this was published) with no divergences between the indicator and the market price. 3_MACD in under a negative crossover , Market price is moving above the MACD (bearish sign ) Support & Resistance points : support Resistance 1_0.745 1_0.7498 2_0.7424 2_0.7521 3_0.7401 3_0.7547 Fundamental point of view : According to DailyFX The AUD/USD has been under pressure of late following renewed virus fears in Australia, along with Federal Reserve hawkishness. The Australian Dollar may potentially have bottomed following a test of September 2020’s swing high at 0.7413. Currently AUD/USD remains below the key 0.5% Fibonacci level at 0.7499, having failed to materially break above during the last few sessions. With virus fears in Australia growing, the Australian Dollar may continue to consolidate near its 2021 lows until the fundamental outlook in Australia improves. The data from Australia showed that the National Australia Bank's Business Confidence Index dropped to 11 in June from 20 in May, compared to the market expectation of 23. Additionally, the Business Conditions Index fell to 24 from 36 and missed analysts' estimate of 33. On a positive note, HIA New Hom Sales increased by 14.8% on a monthly basis in June but this print failed to help the AUD gather strength. Make sure to Follow and Like for more content This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view , not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask Thank you for reading.
Short
by GabiDahduh
1
ETHUSD: Analysing the best & worst case scenarios for near termAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :) Quick glance: ETH has been under selling pressure lately. As of now, it seems to be facing resistance from the BB midline. The trend line on the 4H timeframe has been retested several times. Overall sentiment seems to hint at a probable bullish move. Market in the last 24hrs The last 24 hours witnessed a massive selloff. Stop losses were triggered caused prices to drop sharply, and triggered a further panic selling. Today’s Trend analysis ETHUSD seems to be facing resistance at the trend line.There are 2 likely scenarios for the short term: - Quick move towards the $2200 mark. - Sharp decline towards $1700 It is important to closely observe for confirmations before taking an entry right now. Price volatility remained moderate at approximately 5.1%, with the day's range between $1884.10 — $1982.40. Price at the time of publishing: $1955.31 ETH's market cap: $226.44 Billion Out of 11 Oscillator indicators, 9 are neutral, and 2 are bullish. Out of 15 Moving average indicators, 9 are bearish, 5 are bullish and 1 is neutral. Indicator summary is Neutral for ETHUSD . Volumes have remained low in the past 24 hours. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The analysis is based on signals from 26 technical indicators, out of which 15 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 4Hr candles. Note: Above analysis would hold true if we do not encounter a sudden jump in trade volume . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Mudrex
16
BTC bottom is in? Time to long?Could 28k be the bottom? I mean, china usually bans BTC and then it pumps after that There is a lot of FUD and many people are expecting a 20k btc. Is it possible that china and the whales have already started buying btc back up? Now to TA: A lot of short term bullish indicators We broke out of a falling broadening wedge which was caused by an inverse head & shoulders We haven't hit the target for the inverse H&S yet and it seems like we are creating two double nested bull flags I do think there is a possibility where we drop from here a bit but, BTC looks like it wants to move up from here Could be a good LONG trade to take
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DavidJDM
Support & Resistance analysis for Bitcoin | 4H timeframeQuick glance: On our previous analysis on BTCUSD, we discussed the rise following the dumping. Although, the macro indicators supposedly have negligible impact on crypto, El Salvador's decision to accept Bitcoin as a legal tender sparked off debates about other nations following the same some time in the future. Market in the last 24hrs BTCUSD witnessed a roller coaster ride. There was a sharp rise, then a retracement and followed by a rally. Today’s Trend analysis BTCUSD seems to have a strong momentum. Volume has also shot up. However, the increasing channel of the Bollinger Bands suggest increased volatility. Price volatility remained high at approximately 6%, with the day's range between $36254.00 — $38446.24. Price at the time of publishing: $37849.42 BTC's market cap: $707.14 Billion Out of 11 Oscillator indicators, 8 are neutral, and 2 points to 'SELL' signals, and 1 points to 'BUY' signal. Out of 15 Moving average indicators, 11 are giving a 'BUY' signal, and 3 are giving a 'SELL' signal. Indicator summary is giving a 'BUY' signal on BTCUSD for the shorter timeframe. Volumes have remained low in the past 24 hours. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The analysis is based on signals from 26 technical indicators, out of which 15 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 4Hr candles. Note: Above analysis would hold true if we do not encounter a sudden jump in trade volume . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Mudrex
2
Litecoin price attempting a new supportLTC seems to have found some support on the chart just below the $300 level. The Litecoin price is setting up for a potential run to $339. The price has run into the support of an ascending trendline on the 2-hour chart at $298. For the moment, the trend is holding, and LTC appears to be putting in a bottom above the big figure. Additionally, it is now above a descending trendline at $311, from the 12th of may high at $394.50. As long as the Litecoin price stays above the descending trend line, I expect a rally to $339. This is the level the price bounced to after the previous test of the line. If the price can convincingly clear $339, the next target is $360. Nonetheless, if the trend line at $298 fails, clearly, there may be room on the downside. This would cancel the short term bullish outlook.
Long
by Evanwinter_trade
1
Yearn Finance Price UpdateThe 2-hour chart shows us that YFI is close to breaking below a major trend line. This trend has been in place from the 13th of May low at $60,487. I consider this to be an important level of support, as a clear break has the potential to push the Yearn Finance price back to $50,000. A series of lows from early April provide support around the $50k mark. If the price can stabilize above the trendline, it has a chance to recover. There is some resistance at $70,500, and YFI has failed to break above this area for the last 12 hours. Therefore clearance of $70,500 would suggest the price can continue higher. The first target would be 81,970, where the price stalled on the rally of the 14th of April.
FTX:YFIUSD
by Evanwinter_trade
1
Monero Price analaysisThe test of ascending trend line in. place from March has so far held. This, to me, looks encouraging. The price is running into some resistance at $421. However, I expect this level to be soon cleared, putting XMR on a path to $450. A descending trend line at $450, from the April high, offers resistance. If the Monero price can clear this resistance, there is a good chance it can continue higher, with the ATH being an obvious target on the upside. A close below the ascending trend line at $366 would negate the bullish outlook.
XLong
by Evanwinter_trade
3 Reasons Why Crude Oil Could Head Back to $100 Per BarrellBull and bear markets can rise or fall to levels that even the most respected analysts believe are illogical, unreasonable, and irrational. On April 20, 2020, we witnessed an irrational day where the price of NYMEX crude oil not only dropped below zero for the first time but also fell to a low of negative $40.32 per barrel. NYMEX WTI is landlocked petroleum. The delivery point is at a pipeline in Cushing, Oklahoma. With no storage options, those holding long positions had to sell at any price as the futures contract’s expiration approached. Crude oil became a bearish hot potato as energy demand evaporated during the pandemic. The price fell to a level that few thought possible. The price has been trending higher since last April Crude oil has not traded in the triple digits since 2014 Reason one - OPEC+ has the pricing baton Reason two - Demand and inflation are surging Reason three - The trend is your friend In May 2021, the crude oil futures arena on NYMEX has recovered and was over $100 per barrel, higher than the April 2020 low. Moreover, the path of least resistance remains higher, and we could be on the verge of a move to irrational, illogical, and unreasonable levels on the upside. The price has been trending higher since last April On April 20, 2020, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures reached the lowest price since trading began in the 1980s. The weekly chart highlights the over $100 per barrel ascent of the continuous futures contract from negative $40.32 per barrel to a settlement at $64.90 per barrel on May 7, 2021. NYMEX crude oil has made higher lows and higher highs over the past year, reaching $67.98 per barrel in. early March. After a correction to $57.25 in late March, the price resumed its upward trend. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the crude oil futures market, has been rising with the price over the past weeks, moving from 2.31 million contracts in late March to 2.45 million at the end of last week. Increasing open interest when the price is rising is typically a technical validation of a bullish trend in futures markets. Meanwhile, weekly price momentum and relative strength indicators sit above neutral readings but are nowhere near overbought conditions, leaving room for more gains. Weekly historical volatility below the 30% level reflects that oil prices are back on the staircase to the upside. The energy commodity trends to take the stairs higher and an escalator or elevator lower during corrections or bear markets, as we witnessed in March and April 2020 when it took an elevator shaft to the downside. Crude oil has not traded in the triple digits since 2014 The last time NYMEX crude oil futures traded over the $100 per barrel level was June 2014. As the monthly chart highlights, crude oil has remained below the triple-digit price over the past seven years. The all-time high in MYNEX futures came in 2008, before the global financial crisis when the energy commodity hit a peak at $147.27 per barrel. Three reasons lead us to believe that crude oil could be heading back to a triple-digit price sooner rather than later. Goldman Sachs recently forecast the price could reach the $80 level later this year. Market price action often causes prices to fall far further than analysts believe possible during bear markets, as we learned on April 20, 2020. The same holds for bull markets, where a herd of buying can take prices to levels that seem illogical, unreasonable, and irrational for periods. If you doubt that, look at the price action in digital currencies over the past months. A $100 handle on NYMEX crude oil is not so far-fetched in the current environment. Reason one - OPEC+ has the pricing baton The 2020 US election cycle transferred the oil market’s pricing power from the United States to OPEC+. The shift from years of “drill-baby-drill” and “frack-baby-frack” under the Trump administration to a greener path that includes stricter regulations under President Biden means US output will decline. After suffering under rising US shale production for years, the international oil cartel and Russians can now squeeze the US and other worldwide consumers to pay higher prices. Do not underestimate OPEC+ when it comes to extracting the highest possible price for petroleum as it is the cartel’s stated mission on its website. The terms “steady income” and “fair return” leave no doubt that pushing the price to the highest possible level is the goal. As OPEC+ now controls the marginal barrels that influence the path of least resistance for prices, production policy will aim to fill their coffers with petroleum revenue. Balancing the Saudi budget requires an $80 per barrel price. Russian President Vladimir Putin is not allergic to income and would like to see the flow from the US at the highest possible price after his experience with shale production. Reason two - Demand and inflation are surging Ironically, OPEC+’s power is rising when the oil market could enter an almost perfect bullish storm. Vaccines creating herd immunity to COVID-19 are creating robust and even explosive energy demand. After over a year of social distancing, working from home, or unemployment, people are traveling and returning to work, venturing out, and booking travel. Businesses are operating, causing a substantial demand surge for crude oil. Moreover, the monetary and fiscal policy tools that address the pandemic’s economic fallout are creating inflation. In August 2020, the US Federal Reserve shifted its inflation target from 2% to an average of 2%. The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and historically low interest rates, together with a tsunami of government stimulus, is eroding fiat currency purchasing power. Prices of all commodities are surging. Oil may have already seen an over $100 per barrel rise from the April 20 high, but other markets tell us that we have not seen the highs. Reason three - The trend is your friend The trend in commodity prices is decidedly higher. One would have to be blind not to see the price action unless, of course, they are sitting at the Fed or US Treasury where the economists continue to use their new favorite term “transitory.” Grains prices are at the highest levels since 2012-2013. Lumber reached a new record high at over $1700 per 1,000 board feet last week. Palladium rose to a new all-time peak at $3019 per ounce on May 4. Sugar prices are at multi-year highs, as are coffee prices. Ethanol, a product of corn in the US and sugarcane in Brazil, is at the highest price since 2014, the last time crude oil hit the $100 mark. The Canadian and Australian dollars are rising in value against the US dollar. The C$ and A$ are commodity proxies as the countries are substantial raw material exporters, and rising prices increase their corporate earnings and tax revenues. Even the forlorn Brazilian real has been trending higher over the past weeks. When Brazil is a political and economic mess, the largest economy and most populous South American nation is a substantial commodity producer. The evidence is right in front of our faces; inflation is not on the horizon; it has arrived. The central banks and governments continue to pour fuel on the burning inflationary pressure. The slight uptick in the US unemployment rate to 6.1% last week takes the pressure off the Fed to even “think about thinking about” any QE tapering or hikes in short-term interest rates despite 6.4% GDP growth in Q1, which is likely to continue in Q2. Is a $100 handle on crude oil so far-fetched in the current environment? I think not. Read more articles like this using the link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
Stellar Price AnalysisSince the beginning of 2021, Stellar has seen drops of >45% on 4 separate events. Bulls may then be sure to go deal chasing after the new steep markdown. The image in the more drawn out term stays hazy. We can look to the brief timeframe casings to give us exchanging openings. On the 4 hour chat, we see overhead opposition at $0.45113. The following level on the potential gain is the upper band of the dropping pattern channel at $0.4787. A break if this level on an end premise could give a long chance, shutting the exchange as the value approaches $0.5195. This view would be refuted on a nearby underneath the upper band of the downtrend channel.
X
by Evanwinter_trade
Is Bitcoin Exhausted? Short term drop possibleHello Everyone, Unpopular opinion, but I believe Bitcoin is going to drop. Here's why: I believe we are in an "exhausted state". Now when I say this, I absolutely do not think this bull market is over or even close to over. Bitcoin went up too high too fast and it needs to chill out for a few weeks to a month. From a macro overview, Bitcoin has continued to push higher highs with less volume and the moves have been a lot less dramatic. It has failed to push through $60,000 many times and I believe it is going to take more volume to get past these levels. I also believe Wyckoff or a Distribution phase is being formed on the Daily chart. On a monthly chart, we have 6 green months in a row with no pullback with the volume waning on the March and February monthly candles signaling some sort of exhaustion in the market. Here are some technicals on the Daily/Weekly charts: 1. RSI has lower highs as we're making higher highs in price. This is a bearish signal. 2. Price action: Higher price with lower volume or waning volume. Typically this leads into what is known as Wyckoff or distribution and the price goes down. Again, a bearish signal. 3. There is weak buying momentum on the weekly chart. This indicates weakness in the current direction as Bitcoin has seen 4 waning weeks in a row of buying momentum. In 2017, this indicated a 30% correction. 4. Failure to break above $60,000 and hold. - Indicates people are selling as soon as we have reached the "Top" (Another reason why I am referencing this current state as Wyckoff or Distribution). In the 2017 bull market, the weekly price bounced off the 20MA several times and it has yet to do so. I believe Bitcoin's price will fall to the 20MA and bounce very hard off of it at first. We won't know that we're having confirmed continuation until the price action looks bullish again. Now with all of this being said, we could get a ton of volume to come in and we push to the upper $60ks to $70ks in price, but I do not think it will hold very long, if it holds at all. I would be very careful buying in the blue box territory I have on my chart. Please give me a thumbs up if you liked my analysis and comment your opinion below. And as always, manage your risk, be patient, and good luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
4