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Probabilities

GBP/JPY- Trend Changing PatternMy focus this morning is on the GBPJPY, we have seen a strong reaction to the breakdown low that happened on 03 May 2024. The reaction gave us a bullish wave structure on the H1 timeframe, the concluding factor is that wave structure 4 failed to make an HH 5 (200.652). Instead of an HH 5, the price made an LH 5 in an uptrend. The price then proceeded to break structure 4, known as a trend-changing pattern. Knowing this information determined our directional bias for the GBPJPY. So far, we have seen a retracement to the LH 5 (200.652), which has now become a structural point because it made a LL. Yesterday the price formation indicated that the Sellers are slowly coming into the market above the 200.652, we saw sharp rejections twice yesterday and a trade below the 200.65 and 200.50 today will be a sell indication for us. The invalidation point is a break above the 200.95, above here selling is no longer an option for us. Think in Probability: As traders, you must be careful to align your behavior and expectations with the following principles: - Anything can happen - An EDGE is only an indication of one thing happening over another - There is a random distribution between wins and losses - You don't need to know what will happen in order to make money in trading.
Short
by Charts247TradingAcademy
7
How To Trade Probability Ranges The Critical Rule of 1/3Using the Rule of Thirds to Master Probabilities in trading and investing ranges -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stocks typically remaining in consolidation ranges 70% of the time while trending the remainder. Using the rule of thirds, we can use statistics, prior price action and the probabilities of success to determine when to enter trades where the odds are stacked in our favor. 1) We start by finding a stock that is in a consolidation range, and identify the nearest important support and important resistance levels based on your targeted trading timeframe. 2 ) We take the range between the support and resistance levels and divide it into thirds, so we have three zones within the consolidation range. 3) When going long, you want to BUY the stock when it is within the bottom third or the zone from support to the 1st third level. Once you buy, your objectives are to hold during the middle third of the range, and sell during the top third. When you buy in the first third, this gives you a 66 percent chance of success. If you buy in the second third of the range, you only have a 50/50 chance of success. Going long in the top third of the range, gives you only a 33% chance of success because you are already close to the resistance level. When going short, the sequence and odds are reversed. You sell during the top third of the range, hold during the middle third and exit in the bottom third. This again gives you a 66% chance of success when you enter in the top third, 50/50 chance if you enter in the middle third, and a 33% chance of success if you enter in the bottom third as you are already close to the support zone. ****Using this simple trick, you can quickly evaluate trades based on probabilities and selectively enter trades where the odds of success are the highest and avoid likely losing trades. The rule of thirds also also gives you the confidence to continue to hold trades based on previous important ranges, and provides clear levels where the stock is likely to either reverse or start trending. Hope It Helps to your Trading & Investing Success Marc
FTX:MATICUSDEducation
by PowerIndicators
9
ES SPX At A CRITICAL Probabilities Zones...2008 Again or 5150 ?In this key video, let's review what could happen to the ES SPX at critical zones and Probabilities in the coming week. First, keep an eye on the fear factor - the VIX index. If we have a flush down, then I expect the algos to come in and squeeze the ES, SPX and cryptos back up. Even in a bear market we have violent squeezes around round numbers like 4000 where the manipulate the markets with flushes and squeezes. Second, watch the dollar ($DXY) - if it goes back down, it will support risk on assets and thus support the ES and SPX around the 3800 level. See my prior video on the VIX index for a refresher on risk on and risk off assets. Remember trading is all about probabilities and there are no absolutes in trading. Stay flexible and go with the order flow. Hope its helps Have a great week everyone Marc
CME_MINI:ES1!
by PowerIndicators
5