Get started

Psychology

TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY TLRY had a strong bull rally soon after it went public but formed a buy climax (tail). Since it has been correcting down to test the bull breakout. The selling pressure is not great and is accelerating, possibly setting up a wedge bull flag soon. If the bull gap from around $35 stays open it will increase the chances of bull trend continuation. If it is is filled, prices will likely test the tight trading range below and is more likely to enter a trading range.
NASDAQ:TLRY
by tradersmentality
Psych Hack #0006 - Dissonance TheoryIn this screencast I explore dissonance theory. Some don't know that trading is very little to do with charts and indicators - and terribly more to do with psychological matters that affect our decision-making. Seems a bit strange as my charts are usually covered in indicators. I share lessons learned. I explore what the mind does when an alternative perspective or evidence emerges. Disclaimer (required by Tradingview): This content is for educational purposes only. There is shared experience here based on exploration and study of psychological phenomena affecting decision-making and risk management. No guarantees are made that my knowledge or experience is right - and therefore should not be relied upon in real trading environments.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Notes on PsychologyWhere are hedge fund managers pricing their fibonacci's? Quick notes: Fibonacci major resistance at 61.8% - good sign RSI back to par Stochastic crossover below lower threshold MACD may swing back to crossover but need more information. Resistance at 50d moving average Using 1h chart because things are happening VERY QUICKLY on this stock. Psychologically at 50 cents is a natural barrier because we know that prices are not completely logical and they fluctuate around psychology where large fund managers will set exit and entry limit prices to make sure they are 'limiting their risk/downside" SO WHERE DO THEY PUT THEIR MARKS? 50 cents on the chart had natural resistance and on the most recent climb we can see resistance jumps in increments Resistance at .50, .60, .70, .80 Then we heard good news about their trials and it DOUBLED from .8 to ~1.6 which a DOUBLE is that good for a fund manager!? YES!! SELL SELL SELL SELL PANIC PANIC FOMO LOOSE MONEY EVERYONE SELLS "GREAT! now we just made double our money, sold everything, now it has dropped back to our original price or just about ~.9 (let's increase it just a bit to not be predictable about our .8 resistance), and now let's double it again ! Now we have made quadruple our money in 10 days! WEEEE" A favorite buy back is at a 61.8% retracement, while the volatility here shows that it can easily drop all the way down to .74 at the 78.6% fibonacci... it is unlikely and we will see consolidation until the big guys have their shares and then we will see this cycle repeat itself right back up to 1.8 or even 2! AND THEN MAJOR RESISTANCE SELL SELL SELL PANIC RINSE & REPEAT.
ALong
by antifragilemachine
Bitcoin: Comparison with 2015.. Are the bulls being trapped?Yesterday I made the case that presuming the end of the bear may be a bit premature. Comparing the weekly chart to the weekly chart of 2015 shows this as well. I'm comparing this weeks candle to the candle of the 29th of June. Now here is where I'm being a bit premature, as this weeks candle is still young and bitcoin being bitcoin could close anywhere between 0 and infinity. But for arguments sake, let's assume that this candle will close above 4600. Keep in mind that if this is not the case, everything I say from won't really be true anymore. The reason for comparing this weeks candle to that 2015 candle is that they are both the first candles to print a bullish level 2 signal (blue L2 on the chart). Comparing the candles, the current candle definitely looks more bullish, but also prints an exhaustion signal (red dot). This give me more reason to be cautious to the bullish side. The bullish L2 signal in 2015 resulted in a minor pullback to just below the ribbon. The ribbon then remained neutral (grey), and turned bullish (blue) after the indicator printed a second bullish L2 signal. That was the start of the next bull market (to me at least..) in 2015. I'm looking for something similar to happen this time: for the first bullish L2 signal to fail to turn the ribbon bullish and the market to pullback. To where? Well, I don't know. And nobody really does.. Will that pullback take us to new lows? Perhaps, and there are a number of cases to be made in its favour. The first and foremost is the amount of hope that the space still has. The catharsis this upmove caused is evident I think.. This does not mean we won't go higher, just that this hope (unfortunately) needs to be crushed before the bear is over. And this sets up for nasty bull traps.. Looking at 2015 you can see that trap laid out clearly, with a drop of about 33% after the first L2 signal printed. If it goes lower, how low will it go? Again, I don't know. I won't bore you with the obvious levels, truth is, it can spike anywhere between 3000 and 500, perhaps even lower. It may be the final axe coming down, and how much force that axe needs to break the hope is unclear. The only clear thing, I do not fancy being on the receiving side of that blade. Waiting it out here seems to be the wisest option.. Will this time be different? How many reasons can you think of why it will be different? How bad do you want it to be different? "Check yo'self, before you rek yo'self" a wise man once said...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
NZDUSD - Retracement Before More Downside MovementWith the DXY in a crucial area laying in line with the 78.6 % Fibonacci level as well as a potential head & shoulder pattern, we may see this pair shoot to the upside. However, we have breached the descending trend line and closed above. This may be a false breakout or we will see a break & retest to push price higher for the USD. If the latter occurs, we should see NZDUSD plummet. Looking at the daily timeframe on NZDUSD, we saw a fakeout spiking 70 pips above the descending trend line, however we saw previous resistance met, looking left, and saw a sharp decline to the downside. We then came up to test resistance which we then rejected, ( this was also a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If you drop down to the 4HR timeframe, you will be able to see a double spinning top / doji formation off this zone showing price exhaustion and a potential reversal. At the time of writing this article, we are currently respecting the ascending trend line and a minor support level. I have the 61.8%/78.6% Fibonacci marked up in blue as my desired entry to short this pair. Being in a pennant, we are currently consolidating and we can expect a breakout. I favour short, however I will look for a break & retest of the descending trend line incase DXY weakens which will then allow us to short USD pairs as well as buy Gold. The EMA's have also recently crossed over as well as dropping down to the 4HR, we can see they are touching each other now and we can expect a new downside leg. The creation of a new range of lower lows and lower highs, rejection of trend line and resistance as well as the Fibonacci retracement are all used for confluence or more confirmation. I will remain patient and look for a high probability , high risk/reward trade. Psychology and risk management is key to being consistent and profitable. Have a great week !
Short
by KeownArcher
2
Important: Macro Market Cycle - T.A VersionHey Everyone! First, here's a static picture of the chart we'll be discussing. Something I do very often is get lost in the charts, comparing old data to new, recycling old methods and even memeing technical analysis like the Wall Street Cheat Sheet based off psychology. Today, I decided instead of overlaying the two like I would usually do, was to just re create it. With some simple, yet effective technical analysis to understand why each of those points are labelled what they are. After diving into it, The following is very clear : 1) That this is only a possibility, it's a simple interpretation of a chart that is based off psychology. We could still be at any given point of this chart on the grand scheme of things. I've picked this time zone based off when $BTC/$USDT pairing became available on Binance. 2) That simple technical analysis lined up with emotion, made much more sense as to why the traders at the time would feel the emotions that they did. 3) That the general feeling in the market right now is that of a possible disbelief, which would mean the bottom may well just be in based off a psychological point of the market Let's zoom into each of these points and understand them more. On the way up.. Disbelief , after finally rallying ~ a head and shoulders formed and completed, sending price dropping quickly. buyers quickly jumped in and a healthy double bottom/adam and eve pattern followed.. leaving a nice big wick on the bigger time frames. After forming another small head and shoulders and dropping, buyers quickly stepped in at support, and price sky rocketed in Disbelief . See image here: Hope , after breaching above the previous high, price found a top just shy of a round number and then proceeded to form a successful bullflag.when sent price back up, which then formed a healthy double bottom/adam and eve pattern, which then found support above previous resistance and sky rocketed again. Once buyers were exhausted, another head and shoulders pattern completed sending price sky diving quickly. Traders had Hope that support would hold and the rally could continue, support was held and price bounced very quickly. See image here: Optimism , After finding a local top, price created yet another bullflag, sending price higher creating a new high. Once found, price started to form an inverse head and shoulders and completed it, sending price sky rocketing once again. Another local top was found, and a bullflag was painted, however it was a very erratic one, big movements within each candle, yet it was successful and price jumped yet again breaching the previous high. Once above, it failed to stay above and sharp volume sent price down quickly, but buyers stepped in and kept the candle body higher than the previous high's candle body, giving great Optimism for traders. Once price was back above the high, and found support, price again, sky rocketed. See image here: Thrill , After buyers were exhausted, a volatile sell off happened, which recovered and became yet another bullflag that completed. Once price reached the previous high, it formed another bullflag completed, found support above resistance, which would have sent a Thrill down bulls spines as their investment was now heading completely parabolic. See image here: Euphoria , The parabolic curved reached it's peak, everyone was in a state of Euphoria but most were blinded by greed. See image here: On the way back down.. Complacency , A higher high and low were finally reached. The brutal sell offs had finally stopped. Support will hold.. right? The majority were in a state of Complacency . See image here: Anxiety , After forming the higher high and higher low, we're struggling to get back above the first support we failed, What do I do now? What is going to happen? Am I going to make a mistake? What if price rockets after I sell? What if I don't sell and price drops. At this stage, the majority were feeling a lot of Anxiety . The head and shoulders that has been forming was looking to complete.. I had to convince someone I lived with at the time, it was finally time to sell before. He literally suffered from both FOMO and FONS at the same time. Denial , Support just failed. Most stared at their portfolios in Denial that we were heading down much further yet. Supports failing one after another. The momentum was so great and swift that most did not know how what the right move was. Denial that they hadn't sold earlier at the clear signals to exit. And were failing to see what was playing out right infront of them, a bearish pennant, and two failed double bottoms / adam and eves. See image here: Panic , Support failed, which turned resistance.. price can't seem to get back above.. but also won't drop below the current support.. a state of panic follows.. people began to Panic sell, and others were Panic buying thinking they were catching a falling knife chasing a dead cat bounce.. to only have price continue to drop past previous supports. See image here: Capitulation , No supports held long, emotions are high.. words like ponzi, scam, manipulation etc were used to describe the market movements as some were coming to terms that they had been in Denial and did not want to lose further funds so they sold to save the last of their portfolios finally surrendering to Capitulation . Price dropped 40% in less than a week. See image here: Anger , A dead cat bounce followed Capitulation . Climbing nearly 100% in exactly two weeks. It hit resistance hard but failed to get over, sending price back down, creating yet another double bottom / adam and eve and inverse head and shoulders which failed and sent price diving. Once a local bottom was found, buyers in large volume appeared in April, there was buzz back in the market. Joe Perl and I assumed April would be a target/local/temporary bottom for Bitcoin based off a large descending wedge that was also playing out. However, months went on, and lower highs kept forming and slightly higher lows also. Until a Death Cross on the 3 day chart seemed to be enough to throw us off the edge, sending us further down. Reaching $3,200USD. Price has since inclined and broken above long term trend descending resistance. See image here: Depression , With very few people left in the market in comparison to the major bull run, most with wounds of massive losses in both loss of profit and loss of funds left the market. and still call it a ponzi, scam etc. Some suffering from deep Depression , and a few even taking their own lives who were highly over invested or apart of elaborate scams.. I believe we're currently going through this phase. sooner or later, we'll start to reach a state of disbelief. I feel we're getting to that point now with many calling the market bottom, and many thinking we're going to leg down again. See image here: Once we reach Disbelief again, the cycle can start again. Just because we end a bear market though, does not mean we'll automatically resume a bull market. Something a lot of traders need to learn is "Price vs Time". There is no schedule other than Bitcoin's halving that may change price. Everything else comes down to supply vs demand. I hope breaking this meme psychology chart down shows you just how psychology, sentiment, technical and fundamental analysis impacts the chart. But, regardless of the all the fundamentals.. The chart never lies. Thanks for taking the time to read this. If you wish to join my community, check out my discord here: discord.gg There is a 'Paid/Premium' section to it also, which can be found here: 'https://www.bearbull.market/premium' If you wish to follow me on Facebook, find me at: https:www.facebook.com/tradertroy for my thoughts on the market/trading. And also https:www.facebook.com/cryptobearbull for my business page. My Twitter handle is: @Daemon_Crypto If you're reading this, then you already have access to my TradingView. And lastly, if you want to join a genuine Cryptocurrency community on Facebook, check out https:www.facebook.com/groups/cryptoforblokes
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by The_Paradoxed_Prophet
1
CADCHF - Can The Bears Override The Bulls ? Okay, so not a pair I usually trade or analyse but it was requested and I humbly accepted. So we can see bulls are in control at the moment, I see an upside move of around 80 pips before we can see a good reversal zone met. I will be looking for the descending trend line to be respected between the 71%-88.6% Fibonacci zone. This will also be a good rejection from the weekly key and we can look for bearish candle stick patterns to indicate a reversal and then our next Lower High will be confirmed. This will then be anticipating a Lower low to continue the downtrend and we can see price drop of around 250 pips. Stop losses will be just above the weekly key. Instagram: keownarcher
Short
by KeownArcher
1
Bitcoin Daily Update - Day 49 (0.3816 BTC) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge When there is a nice pump in the crypto markets I like to look for laggards. The best one that I am seeing right now is Bitcoin Cash. Many will be thinking that it simply will not bounce because it is such a piece of shit fundamentally, however that is not my perception. I do think it is a complete piece of shit, but I also think it will bounce with the market. It is one of the most emotional coins out there - meaning the holders are doing so out of emotion and the stayers away are doing so because of emotion. Where there is emotion there is an opportunity to profit imo. Bitcoin Cash is a prime example of this. I really like the idea of taking profit on the positions that are moving in my favor and reallocating that into coins that appear to be lagging behind. That was essentially what I was able to do with LTC and then ETH. Hopefully the third time is also a charm! This brings up an important topic for me. I believe in technical analysis so much that I am comfortable disregarding the ticker. Who cares what the ticker is if the chart looks bullish af? I certainly don't. There is limitations once the market becomes too illiquid but I do not feel like that is the case with BCH. Hopefully I will change my mind sometime later this year due to a mass exodus. The overall bankroll is still not looking pretty but the unrealized profit currently sits at +0.333 BTC. I am very hopeful that this run can bring me back above 1 BTC for my trading challenge. If that happens then I will be in a very good position to get back into the green by shorting the bounce once it becomes exhausted. All we need is a little momentum and completing this challenge is still very well within reason! Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 6,300 XRP / 0.522 BTC Price: $0.307 Stop: $0.2959 Risk: 3.61% Partial Take Profit Order: $0.35 Unrealized Profit: +0.02911 BTC Long LTCH19 Exposure: 12 LTC / 0.113 BTC Price: 0.00946 Stop: 0.0111 Realized PnL: +0.0607 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0177 BTC *Entered stop order to add 23 LTC at 0.01291 with 0.01164 stop loss Long XBTM19 Exposure: $4,232 / 1.07 BTC Enter: $3,586 Stop: $3,586 Realized PnL: +0.0085 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.1009 BTC Long ETHUSD #1 Exposure: 11.64 ETH / 0.43 BTC Enter: $122 Stop: $128 Realized PnL: +0.0374 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.071 BTC Long ETHUSD #2 Exposure: 12 ETH / 0.444 BTC Enter: $116.63 Stop: $128 Unrealized PnL: +0.0888 BTC Long BCHUSD Exposure: 3.5 BCH / 0.1302 BTC Enter: $125.55 Stop: $125.55 Unrealized PnL: +0.018 BTC Open Order Stop Order to Long BCHH19 Exposure: 11 BCH / 0.4366 BTC Enter: 0.0384 Stop: 0.0399 Risk: 11.4%
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 39 (0.3077 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It has been a while since the last update to the trading challenge and that is for good reason. It is not because I am losing motivation or getting discouraged, it is because these markets have been locked in ranges and I have been patiently waiting for a trend. With very little entering / exiting being done I did not see the need for a daily post. My intention is to record my trading results in real time, and I have realized that daily updates are not needed to accomplish that goal. The challenge did not start how I wanted and I was beating myself in the moment. However in hindsight I do not feel back about my performance at all. I have been trading crypto, FOREX and SPXUSD primarily and I would be highly impressed by anyone who made money in those markets thus far in 2019. Crypto was sideways, FOREX was very chopping and provided many false signals / whipsaws (at least for USD pairs). The S&P slicing right through $2,650 on tiny volume still makes 0 sense to me. Now that I have some positions moving in my favor I am hopeful that we can get this challenge out of the gutter. I am expecting a big rally in crypto due to alts bouncing from major horizontal support and total market cap supporting above $100B. I have built a good amount of long exposure, relative to remaining bankroll, and I still have ~33% on the sidelines waiting to add if the positions continue to move in my favor. Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 1,200 XRP / 0.104 BTC Price: $0.299 Stop: $0.27784 Risk: 7.07% Long LTCH19 Exposure: 43 LTC / 0.40678 BTC Price: 0.00946 Stop: 0.00947 Long WTIUSD Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.1966 BTC Price: $55.30 Stop: $51.39 Risk: 7% Long XBTM19 Exposure: 0.311 BTC Enter: $3,392 Stop: $3,224 Risk: 4.9% Long XBTUSD Exposure: $5,000 / 1.384 BTC Enter: $3,612.50 Stop: $3,584 Risk: 0.78% Open Order Order to add to XRPUSD Long Stop Entry: $0.32267 Stop Loss: $0.2839 Risk: 11.8% Exposure: 0.29 lots / 2,929 XRP / 0.2548 BTC Order Entered to long ETHUSD Stop Entry: $125.9 Stop Loss:$108.9 Risk: 13.6% Exposure: 4.8 ETH / 0.1538 BTC Order to open long on BCHUSD Stop Entry: $131.26 Stop Loss; $112.95 Risk: 13.94% Exposure: 3.05 lots / 3.05 BCH / 0.107 BTC Watchtower XAU Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter. XAG Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry. ETHBTC Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support. Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry. BCHUSD Notes: Breaking through ~ 6 week TL, like how daily MA’s are coming together in Consensio. $400 is obvious target, however looking at W SAR & 24 W MA in $300 neighborhood as area to scale out. Can get back in if break W SAR.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 31 (0.3718 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Over the past week or two I have not seen any setups that interest me. I am wanting to get this challenge back on track and my hands were tied while there were not any desirable entries. Doing this challenge publicly makes me feel anxious to get back into positions but I know that becoming impatient is the last thing I can afford to do right now. To ensure that is not happening I have been significantly decreasing exposure and trying my best to wait for the best possible setups. Once I see a setup that I really like then I am waiting an extra day before entering and then I am preferring to use stop entries to make sure market is moving in my favor. Trading can be a fickle bitch and it is very much a game of: what have you done lately? It is one thing to not be results oriented while trading, but if taken too far that can clout judgement and cause delusional beliefs in one's ability. I try my best to always remain objective and that requires constantly examining / learning from my mistakes. There were certainly some significant mistakes that were made over this past month that I am paying close attention to. January Worst Dressed Trade USDTRY I got overconfident and overexposed myself before the trade moved in my favor. I love starting small to test the market and make sure that it is heading in my favor, then only adding once I have increased confidence in the trend. In this case I started with closer to 50% of my desired position size than 5%. On one hand I do not want to be results oriented, because this did have a very high probability of success and when trading hyperwaves buying a pullback to phase 3 is the best entry. 85% of hyperwaves in phase 3 go onto complete the cycle. On the other hand this one was a bit funky and I firmly believe it was a mistake to enter the position size that I did that early on in the game. The large majority of my losses over the past month have come from being bullish the dollar and bearish the stock market. I am tentatively starting to turn bearish the USD and I am staying tf away from the stock market until I understand more what is going on there. Gold, Silver and Palladium are very, very interesting right now. I am expecting a 1 - 4 week pullback from here and will be hoping to find high probability long entries during that time. Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 1,000 XRP / 0.081 BTC Price: $0.30791 Stop: $0.27784 Risk: 9.76% Short USDJPY Exposure: 0.04 lots / 1.1782 BTC Price: $108.79 Stop: $110.056 Risk: 1.06% Pending Orders (1) LTCH19 stop buy entered on 1/30 Exposure: 27 LTC / 0.24867 BTC Price: 0.00921 Stop: 0.00824 Risk: 10.53% (2) Stop order to long WTIUSD entered on 1/31 Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.195 BTC Price: $55.26 Stop: $51.39 Risk: 7% Watchtower XAU Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter. XAG Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry. ETHBTC Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support. Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 28 (0.3718 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge My short on Gold was stopped out on 1/25 and that brings the losing streak to ten in a row. I have booked ten losing trades in a row before, probably more times than I can count on one hand, however I cannot remember the last time that I was this surprised / frustrated by the markets. Starting with the S&P 500 short: I was as confident as I could reasonably be that $2,600 - $2,650 would hold as resistance. The rapidly decreasing volume and confluence of overbought indicators provided strong confirmation. Watching the price cut through that area like a knife through butter was and is very hard for me to wrap my head around. If there was a volume spike it would make sense, but there was not and I am still left scratching my head. USD:TRY Long: Coming into 2019 I had labeled this my most confident long out of a list of ~ 20 markets I planned to trade this year. There wasn't really a close second, this was the trade that I was most excited about. I started small and intended to bet huge. I didn’t get the chance to add on nearly as much as I planned and this trade has still been my most costly of the year. From highest hopes to biggest loser is very frustrating. To add insult to injury it looks like there is a high chance that I got stopped out on a shakeout before the breakout. XAU:USD Short: Those two trades above confused me more than any trade I took in 2018 and this one might take the cake. I still cannot believe that Gold closed above $1,300 and it makes me wonder if the selloff this summer was a massive shakeout before the next breakout. There was a ton of built up resistance at that area and the price was extremely overbought by the time it got there. It got so overbought that it formed a 5 month parabolic advance. I patiently waited for that to breakdown before entering my short. That rally on Friday was absolutely mind boggling. After breaking down the parabolic advance it goes on to make a +1.71% move in one day and close the daily above: the 8 year bear TL, the 4 year bull TL that we broke down in July which was expected to act as resistance on a throwback as well as $1,300 horizontal resistance. When this type of crazy volatility occurs it is likely foreshadowing the next big move. Markets love to shakeout traders before making a big move and I certainly just got shook the fook out! Instead of licking my wounds it is time to stay on red alert and be ready to trade either side of the markets. The following is a very common pattern: tight consolidation -> shakeout -> massive trend. Taking a relatively small loss before capitalizing on a big trend is a large part of what profitable trading is all about. However, if the shakeout causes me to become gun-shy or trepidatious then it could cause me to miss the following trend and that mentality is disastrous. Times like this remind me of a quote from my late father: “Sometimes the lights get turned out and there is seemingly nothing that you can do to turn them back on.” During times like this all I can do is focus on diligently managing risk and maintaining a strong belief that the wins will eventually take care of themselves. I am decreasing my position size as a way to preserve my bankroll while I attempt to get some wins back under my belt. The lights have been turned out on me and that is a very unfortunate way to stay 2019, however: “It is always darkest before the sun shines” If handled correctly then times like this can provide the lessons / energy / focus / humility that is needed to take my game to the next level! Open Positions Long: USDCAD *1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Price: $1.33032 Stop: $1.3149 Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.21 lots Margin: 0.057 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC Closed Positions Short: XAUUSD * STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots * STOP LOSS TRIGGERED on 1/25/19 Enter: $1,284.73 Stop: $1,297.34 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.05 lots Margin: 0.016 BTC PnL: -0.018191 BTC ROI: -3.16% Watchtower XAU Alert: Close > $1,300 + weekly close > bear TL I had drawn from ATH. Notes: I have re adjusted the bear TL to as high as it can go. Weekly close above $1,305 is a buy signal. Close > $1,355 would be signal to add. Weekly cloud at $1,262 looks like a great entry. XAG Alerts: Descending Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s USDTRY Patterns: Looks like Bulkowski Big W is forming Confirmation: Watching for weekly close > $5.45 & confirmation of inverted hammer at $5.75 S&P 500 Alerts: Notes: L MA on weekly has rolled over and is expected to act as strong resistance at $2,700. Also watch bear TL that connects 10/1 to 12/3. Apple Notes: Expecting bounce from 200 W MA and target is $191. Earnings expected 1/29. Daily Cloud is very bearish. Watching for daily GC + L MA roll up. BTC Notes: Watching for Stochastics on daily, 3D and weekly to be in confluence. Until then I am expected further chop. Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Weekly close below symmetrical triangle triggered short entry. Passing due to how rapidly the daily parabolic SAR’s are accelerating downward, which is a strong indicator to me that it is oversold / ready for a bounce. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. 3d on r7 and daily on r9 while stochastics are returning to oversold territory. Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA & 3D TDST)
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Sawcruhteez
3
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 24 (0.39 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I am currently in Las Vegas for the Unconfiscatable Conference and I didn’t have intentions of making another update until returning home. However the stop loss on my USD:TRY long was triggered and because of that I felt the need to make another post. I had high hopes for that trade. I was expecting it claw out of it’s unrealized loss and go onto makeup for a large portion of the deficit that I got myself into with the string of losses that started this challenge. That position easily could have netted me 1+ BTC over the coming weeks / months. Instead it broke down $5.25, triggered my stop and capitalized on a loss of 0.3425 BTC. That puts me into a deep hole and it will make it very difficult to complete this challenge on time. Now the challenge will be to get back to breakeven in the next three months. If I can do that then I believe it is still possible to complete the original goal of +1,000% in less than 6 months. A big part of the motivation for starting this challenge is to inspire others who have gotten completely rekt throughout this bear market and what better way to do that then to get completely rekt myself?! If it wasn’t for this challenge I would likely take a few weeks off and deposit another ~ 1.5 BTC. Instead I am going to roll up my sleeves, decrease my risk and get back to work. Open Positions Short: XAUUSD * STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots Price: $1,284.73 Stop: $1,297.26 Projected Risk: 0.97% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.05 lots Margin: 0.016 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.004 BTC Long: USDCAD *1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Price: $1.33032 Stop: $1.3149 Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.21 lots Margin: 0.057 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC Closed Positions Long: USDTRY Enter: $5.55804 Exposure: $16,000 Leverage: 100:1 PnL: -0.3425 BTC ROI: -7.81% Watchtower . BTC Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA) LTCUSD: Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
by Sawcruhteez
4
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 17 (1.203 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Today I was stopped out of my XRP long and that is my 8th losing trade in a row since beginning this challenge. Combine that with 0 wins and I find myself in a large hole. Judging by the number of likes and views that this has been getting people are noticing and losing interest very quickly. That is okay though because this right here is what separates the doers from the tryers: When the going gets tough, the tough get going If you understand standard deviation then you know that losing streaks are to be expected, but at what point do you point the finger at yourself instead of at the variance? I try to focus on the process instead of the results, however when the results are this poor I am forced to take a step back to see if there was anything under my control that I could have done differently. There are a number of things that I will do differently moving forward but the biggest factor that jumps out at me is not zooming out enough. I was trading Consensio on the daily and completing disregarding the weekly and monthly charts. If I would have started with a longer term view then I would have been able to avoid a number of the losing positions that I entered. Following a string of losses most are inclined to increase leverage / relative risk and that is the absolute last thing that should be done. There will be a strong impulse to try to win back what was just lost but that needs to be avoided at all cost. Therefore I really like taking my risk down a notch until I get on the right side of the market for a few trades. That helps me to refocus, which is absolutely vital. Instead of focusing on winning my money back I am focused on making good trades. When starting this challenge I was targeting 0.1 BTC - 0.15 BTC risk per position. Now that my bankroll for this challenge has been almost sliced in half, I am going to target 0.025 BTC - 0.05 BTC risk per position. This helps me to feel confident that I am controlling my emotions. If I continue my losing streak then I will continue to scale down my risk. I will only look to ramp it back up once I capitalize on of few wins and start to get some mojo back. To add insult to injury I have been very interested in shorting NFLX leading up to this earnings report. It is phase 7 in a hyperwave and all the new was expected it to beat earnings by 30%+. Therefore buy the hype, sell the news. If they miss slightly then that would be an even better selling opportunity. However, I wasn't diligent enough in my preparation. The exchange I use doesn't offer NFLX so I tried to do a last minute transfer to a different BTC exchange that does. The transaction didn't confirm until after markets closed and now I may have missed my entry (markets falling in afterhours trading). When it rains it pours and that is why it is important to own a quality umbrella. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.374 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Has been super frustrating watching this position move against me. Open Orders Short XAU:USD *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Long USD:CAD *1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach. Closed Positions LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. *1/17/19 STOPPED OUT: On a wick that only occured on 2 out of 6 major exchanges. Very frustrating. Enter: 0.00009135 Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Realized PnL: -0.1327 BTC ROI: -7.16% / -107% Watchtower NFLX Notes: "Netflix beats on subscriber growth but misses slightly on revenue" gives me a $200 target based on VRVP and the 200 W MA BTC Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA) LTCUSD: Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Sawcruhteez
GBP/AUD LIQUIDITY FILL -ARE WE READY TO SEE 1.8000?It appears that once again the price was dumped into the psychological level: 1.7650 (in the midst of large fundamental talks) before price rallied 250 PIPS to the upside & potentially wiping out many traders short profits on the day. What happened here? Why is this a common theme in the foreign exchange markets? Why is it that so many people lose? Does this style of playing on the emotions and psychology of the masses in effect make the larger institutions money? or is it all a FAD? - Who knows? Maybe we need to open our eyes a little more. Anyway, the price action is as clear as can be and for as long as the pair trades above 1.7750 (weekly SUPP) then I expect buyers to step in, price to rise and some temporary faith to be restored in the hearts of those giving up the most energy to let their 'voices be heard' throughout the Brexit talks, votes and whatever other manipulation of the masses is occurring in the here and now. I always remain chart focused with a 10% outlook over fundamentals. After today I would be very surprised if GBP/AUD sinks into new weekly lows! We have a barrier at 1.7875 that we need to take out, a minor intraday dip may well form to around 1.7800-1.7820 then price may start to accelerate as many stops will be lurking just above 1.7925.
Long
by QW-Trading
GBP/NZD 250 PIPS WILL BE MADE - HIGH PROBABILITY / LOW RISK It appears that once again the price was dumped into the psychological level: 1.8650 (in the midst of large fundamental talks) before price rallied 250 PIPS to the upside & potentially wiping out many traders short profits on the day. The price action is as clear as can be and for as long as the pair trades above 1.9208 (weekly SUPP) then I expect buyers to step in, price to rise and some temporary faith to be restored in the hearts of those giving up the most energy to let their 'voices be heard' throughout the Brexit talks, votes and whatever other manipulation of the masses is occurring in the here and now. I always remain chart focused with a 10% outlook over fundamentals. After today I would be very surprised if GBP/NZD sinks into new weekly lows! Many stops will be lurking just above 1.92408.
Long
by QW-Trading