Peloton at support? Peloton
Short Term
We look to Buy at 8.60 (stop at 7.82)
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Previous support located at 8.60. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 11.02 and 13.49
Resistance: 11.30 / 14.70 / 20.00
Support: 8.60 / 5.00 / 2.00
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PTON-BUY
$PTONIn its most recent quarter, Peloton reported 2.3 million connected fitness subscribers. These members purchased a Peloton exercise machine and paid $39.99 per month to access Peloton's live and recorded exercise classes.
Overall, subscription revenue totaled $281 million in the fourth quarter.
Compare that to Peloton's total revenue of $936 million in the quarter, and it shows the bulk of its sales come from products.
That could be a challenge for the company because the products it sells can last for several years. That means once Peloton saturates its total addressable market -- estimated by management at 75 million households -- its sales could drop off significantly.
Peloton would then have to rely on existing customers upgrading older machines every few years.
The good news is that the subscription side of the business will bring in recurring revenue at higher margins. Indeed, the gross profit margin of the subscription business was 63.3% in the latest quarter compared with 56.8% a year earlier. And there is the potential to increase prices on subscribers over time as the company adds content. There is also the potential to improve the gross margin on the subscription segment as Peloton adds more members.
The cost of creating the content will be roughly the same, but it will be spread out over a larger audience.
Peloton has taken a big hit over the past month moving from $112 down to the mid $80s but in saying that, It looks like it’s found some support on the daily chart.
Whether it will hold or not, that’s another question.
Only time will tell.
Going into next week this should be on watchlist.
If price is able to hold it gives a good opportunity for a long but if it breaks below support, it also gives a good opportunity to go short.
Keep your eyes on this one.
Watchlist this.
PTON Daily TimeframeSNIPER STRATEGY (new version)
It works ALMOST ON ANY CHART.
It produces Weak, Medium and Strong signals based on consisting elements.
NOT ALL TARGETS CAN BE ACHIEVED, let's make that clear.
TARGETS OR ENTRY PRICES ARE STRONG SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS.
ENTRY PRICE BLACK COLOR
TARGETS GREEN COLOR
STOP LOSS RED COLOR
DO NOT USE THIS STROTEGY FOR LEVERAGED TRADING.
It will not give you the whole wave like any other strategy out there but it will give you a huge part of the wave.
The BEST TIMEFRAMES for this strategy are Daily, Weekly and Monthly however it can work on any timeframe.
Consider those points and you will have a huge advantage in the market.
There is a lot more about this strategy.
It can predict possible target and also give you almost exact buy or sell time on the spot.
I am developing it even more so stay tuned and start to follow me for more signals and forecasts.
START BELIEVING AND GOOD LUCK
HADIMOZAYAN
$PTON - Long Above 117 It should be noted that ARKK purchased 135,000 PTON today. Looking at the chart, it looks primed for a small breakout upside. With more lockdowns being enacted we could see the 122 area, which is historical support/resistance. I plan on taking calls or buying shares above 117, selling just shy of 122.
$PTON - Parabolic Curve Top $130-$150? But Couple of checkpointsI recounted the parabolic curve of $PTON where the Base 4 is ended at $103 as shown in the chart.
However a spike from Base 4 is not mandatory in parabolic curve pattern but indicators and pattern are strong enough for the last spike.
But there are couple of checkpoints for the stock to reach $130-$150 :
1) Stimulus Package
2) Trump's health
If these two marked with Green Tick then $PTON stock can hit between $130-$150 in this couple of weeks.
Trade with caution, stop-loss & Risk Management.
Good Luck.
Peloton (PTON): The Apple and Netflix of the Fitness IndustryIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content!
I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
What is Peloton Interactive (PTON)?
- Peloton is a home fitness company that offers fitness products such as an indoor cycle, and a treadmill, as well as live workout content
- Peloton is similar to Apple (AAPL) in that it promotes the establishment of a hardware-based ecosystem
- It’s also similar to Netflix (NFLX) in that it offers various fitness content in subscription form
Financials
- They initially anticipated $1.72 billion in revenue for 2020, which has been modified to $1.74 billion due to their explosive growth
- This means that PTON demonstrates a 89% year-over-year growth in revenue
- Out of their total revenue, 79% consists of sales of connected fitness products, and 20% from their subscription service
- PTON is one of the few stocks that has benefited from the pandemic.
- With an increasing number of people staying indoors, wanting to exercise, demand for Peloton’s products and services skyrocketed.
- Due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19), they have managed to be profitable for the fourth quarter with an Earnings per Share (EPS) at 27 cents.
- While they are not extremely profitable yet, as PTON is a growth stock, the fact that they have $500 million in cash proves that they will be financially stable for the short term.
Business Analysis
- The fitness machines sold by Peloton are not normal indoor cycles and treadmills with screens attached
- These fitness machines, which cost $2,245 and $4,295, apply cutting-edge technology that allow users to meticulously control the angle and resistance.
- Moreover, these products provide accurate data on the user’s athletic performance.
- The hardware provided by Peloton Interactive are optimized for the contents they provide.
- PTON’s instructors are 30 of the most famous fitness influencers on social media.
- As such, they could expand their streams of revenue to paid advertisements, and ecommerce opportunities, diversifying the business.
- They offer two subscription plans:
- A ‘Connected Fitness’ plan based on the hardware they offer
- And a digital membership that is offered separately
- Connected Fitness allows users to participate in live cycling sessions, and receive immediate feedback from the instructor
- The number of users subscribing to Connected Fitness is skyrocketing, with a 94% increase in users compared to that of the last quarter
- The number of subscribers for Connected Fitness surpassed 1 million in 2020 May
- The digital membership subscription does not require a Peloton hardware, and offers various types of content besides running and cycling, such as yoga, meditation, and boot camps.
- Their customer churn rate remains extremely low at 0.65% every quarter, while the number of users continue to grow every quarter
Technical Analysis
- We can see that prices have been in a phase of accumulation for a long time since later 2019
- As prices traded within a descending parallel channel, we saw a sharp breakdown caused by the market drop, which was triggered by the Corona Virus (COVID-19)
- Unlike other companies that were severely affected by the virus, the pandemic was an opportunity for Peloton to grow.
- As a result, we saw prices break through the $40 resistance zone, and rally in a parabolic trend
- Along the way, it has undergone a phase of re-accumulation, before reaching its all-time high at $91.17
- Currently, we have seen prices cool off, bouncing at $79.34 where the 0.236 Fibonacci support and parallel channel trend line support converge
- The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is also a good indicator of PTON's bullish trend, as well as strong support.
- Based on fundamentals, unless we see a corrective confirmation below $80, we could anticipate new all-time highs for PTON.
Conclusion
Peloton is on its way to completing a hierarchical process of 'hardware-software-content-community' funneling users into their ecosystem. This ecosystem that Peloton is designing has been attempted by many, but successfully done by only a few. With the development of each elements and growth as a whole, we could expect a huge augmentation in the barrier to entry.
One thing to note about growth stocks such as PTON is that the essence of the business is rooted on tech. To say Peloton Interactive (PTON) is another fitness-related company like Fitbit (FIT) is to compare Amazon (AMZN) to bookstores and Tesla Motors (TSLA) to automotive companies.