of Fibonacci RetracementsIn this article, we delve into the intricacies of the Springboard Effect of Fibonacci Retracements , drawing parallels between the trading world and the physics of a springboard.
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The Springboard Analogy:
Imagine a scenario with four different springboards, each with varying degrees of stiffness. Now, drop an identical weight from the same height onto each board. The resulting bounce illustrates the concept of retracement and extension in the context of momentum trading.
Barely Any Springs (0.236 Retracement):
A bounce at the 0.236 retracement level is seen as a potential trend failure. Buyers may step in, but the bounce is likely weak. Traders shift focus to shorter-term scalping opportunities, targeting other fib levels within the retracement as potential resistance.
Few Springs (0.328 Retracement):
Here, the bounce on the 0.328% retracement is viewed with caution. While a good bounce may occur, traders remain vigilant about a potential double top, closely monitoring candlestick reactions and utilizing the CCI to identify divergence if momentum falters.
Moderate Springs (0.5 Retracement):
A bounce at the 0.5 retracement level signifies continued bullish momentum. Buyers are willing to enter at a relatively lower point, maintaining optimism. Targeting the 1.272 extension, traders consider this a bullish signal. Aligning with nearby resistance or front-running the level becomes a strategic move.
Lots of Springs (0.618 Retracement):
This scenario represents a strong market extension. A bounce at the 38.2% retracement level indicates a plethora of buyers eager to enter the market promptly. This serves as a positive sign, suggesting a robust extension. The target? The 1.618 extension, potentially aligned with a nearby resistance level.
The Springboard Effect provides traders with a tangible framework for interpreting retracements and anticipating market extensions. By aligning retracement levels with the stiffness of a springboard, traders gain insights into the potential strength or weakness of a continuation. Whether aiming for robust extensions or preparing for short-term scalps, understanding the nuances of the Springboard Effect adds value to a trader's toolkit.
Embrace this strategy, and may your trades be propelled to new heights.
Pullbacktrade
#AUDJPY buying opportunityLet's take a look at the AUDJPY 4-hour timeframe chart and explore the potential buying opportunity in this pair.
Price yesterday successfully broke above the short-term bearish channel, aligning with the higher timeframe market structure, which adds to the possibility of the price intending to move higher.
Currently, the price is situated at today's Pivot area, which has been providing support since this morning. Additionally, we are above the 1-hour, 30-minute, and 15-minute EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) of 200, all of which together offer crucial support for the price.
Moreover, this recent bearish move can be interpreted as a pullback to the broken channel line.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
#GBPJPY buying opportunityHello, traders and friends. Let's analyze the GBPJPY 1-hour timeframe chart and explore a potential buying opportunity in this pair.
Yesterday, the price successfully broke above a Daily bearish channel that had been pushing the price lower since August 21st. This impulsive breakout to the upside suggests the potential for the price to move higher, possibly reaching at least the high established yesterday.
Another factor supporting our belief in a potential buying opportunity is the bearish corrective move that followed the breakout, indicating no strong overall bearish bias in the price for now.
There are several bullish confluences that reinforce our bias, including:
The bearish channel's upper line, now acting as support.
A demand area on the 1-hour timeframe, coinciding with a static support zone.
The price is currently above the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 30-minute 200EMA, all of which serve as critical support levels.
The price is currently at the 38% Fibonacci level, and if it reaches the support line, the 50% Fibonacci level will also provide significant support.
To consider a long position, we recommend waiting for the price to break the short-term bearish trendline to the upside or looking for candlestick confirmation around the supporting area.
by the way If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
#EURGBP buying opportunityHello, traders. Let's examine the EURGBP chart, where the price is currently completing a pullback to the broken short-term bearish trendline after a change in market structure towards the upside. This provides us with an opportunity to position ourselves in alignment with the higher time frame.
When you review the Daily timeframe, you'll notice a bullish impulsive move that has occurred. Since reaching the recent high, we've been experiencing a bearish corrective move until yesterday. The price reached a critical support area and formed a bullish engulfing candle, which closed above the high of the previous doji candle. This suggests that the bearish momentum may be coming to an end.
Following the formation of the daily bullish engulfing candle, on the 4-hour timeframe, we observed a downward move. The price retraced to approximately 50% of the previous day's candle and approached the 200 EMA. These factors provide significant confluence for considering a buy position from this area.
Furthermore, the price is currently testing the daily pivot area. Since the price opened above the pivot and is now testing it from above, this indicates that the price may continue its bullish momentum.
1COV added to model portfolioCovestro has just been added as a 12.5% position to our model portfolio.
Some comments:
1. 7/8 qualifiers of Minervini's trend template are met and the stock is in a confirmed phase 2 uptrend.
2. Stochastic RSI are indicating an entry coming our of an oversold position.
3. This is a pullback entry following a healthy pullback over the last 2 weeks under low volume which allows for a low risk entry.
4. Relative strength of 1COV as measured against the SP500 is very high which makes that a momentum trade.
Here is the link to our updated model portfolio:
www.tradingview.com
BTCUSDT Looking Bearish in the Short TermMultiple indicators have signaled bear as well as overbought conditions for Bitcoin on the 15m chart. This makes sense because Bitcoin has just experienced a pump within a short period of time. Usually, this means a retracement will follow as market participants will be compelled to take profits which means selling in the shorter term, a potential dip may be an opportunity to buy as we are likely to go higher in the longer term.
All TradingView ideas are meant to be for educational purposes only.
HPAL - At Support - Pullback TradeI identified this stock as a probable candidate for a breakout trade (Refer to the previous post linked here)
And we did see a breakout and run up to 540-550 levels.
Now the stock has come back to the breakout level, the previous resistance area which now would serve as a support area( 455-463)
and this week a hammer-like candle is also formed in the support area, portraying a good opportunity for a pullback trade.
The structure of the stock is still very positive and this could be a great risk to reward swing to positional trade.
The initial target is recent highs i.e. 540-550 and the further target is around 600 levels.
Close below 450 would negate the trade.
#CHFJPY bullish continuation*please be sure to remember that today we have FOMC meeting and they are going to announce funds rate and their policies for coming meetings with a high possibility of a lot of movement in all pairs.
As you can see in the chart price broke above short-term bearish trendline with strong 4H time frame Marubozu like candlestick which revels buyers strength.
This bearish move since the completion of 4H time frame candle can be interpreted as pullback to test the broken trendline and its possible to be looking to buy in this area.
UNH on watch for continuation after pullback LONGUNH after earnings with a mild beat in mid July, price shot up for one week then went
sideways and then pulled back in the past week. Price is now at 497 and under
the dynamic resistance of the first deviation line above the mean VWAP. The dual
time frame shows a good pattern with the shorter TF of 3 minutes in green above the
longer TF of 45 minutes in black. The short TF is above the 50 level.
Overall, I think the pullback is about over. I will take a long trade with a buy stop of
500.25 setting the stop loss below what will become dynamic support of the blue
line at 499.5. This is a tight stop and low risk owing to the positioning of the trade
about a support level. I will target 515.00 for a risk to reward ratio of 0.75 to 15
or 1:20 which is outstanding. I may take a call option striking $510 out a couple of months
if it would not draw down by the cash portion of my overall portfolio more than 3%. This
option premium is about $9000 but I think the potential profit is about the same.
AAPL Buy Long on Pullback?AAPL has been rock solid this year as illustrated by the daily chart. It is no
surprise that AAPL is Warren Buffets's biggest holding. The earnings were a
top line beat with revenue flat. New iPhone sales are off. The TSLA idea
of dropping price to boost demand and trying to maintain margins will
come into effect. The dip this week is remarkable given the range of those
red candles. Based on VWAP bands, AAPL is overbought and overvalued but
not badly so. Price has dropped under the longest moving average (HMA140)/
This is a small pullback I will use the opportunity to purchase a call option
striking over the money at $205 for mid-November as an intermediate
term veto that AAPL will march consistently higher. Because of this pullback
the options contract will be a bit cheaper and easier from which to achieve
a realized profit.
BULZ - Technology ETF ( AI revolution )LONGBULZ is a 3X leveraged version of the Cathie Wood ETFs. As shows on the
2H chart BULZ broke out of the fair value channel of the anchored VWAP bands
in bullish momentum Not a coincidence. In three months it has gained over 110%
or 35% per month compounded. The MACD indicator shows the lines peaking over
the histogram a cross of them is pending. The mass index indicator shows a signal
into the reversal zone and falling as if about to trigger. This is a VWAP breakout
at its best. It jumped 7 % in one day and now needs a pullback reset.
My trading plan is simple. I will watch for a pullback to the blue line one standard
deviation above the mean VWAP. I expect a bounce off that dynamic support. The trade
will be a long-duration one until the technology sector cools off. Any future pullbacks to
the blue VWAP will have an incremental add to the position. Any pops in price over the second
VWAP line above the mean ( a line not visible here) will be used to signal a sell of a portion
of the position. All in all, this will compound realized profits while underway.
Pullback Buy in RDFNRDFN is a stock we bought in my Alpha Stocks service on June 27 when it broke out above resistance at 11.50.
It rallied 50% over the next three weeks but has now pulled back to a level where I would consider adding to or taking a new position.
Redfin is a powerful stock, but it also has a history of 15-20% pullbacks throughout its up moves. As of Friday morning, the stock is 20% off its high with support at the 21-day exponential moving average which has contained this surge thus far.
Traders may consider buying here with a stop loss near $13.
BNBUSDT Potential Bear ActionPotential bearish scenario to this asset. Price action is suggesting a further drawdown to the 239USDT demand region as the actual pullback seems to be accomplished. The reciprocal AB=CD pattern projection is reinforcing this idea, as a Head and Shoulders pattern is likely in formation. Thus, on this hypothetical 30m scenario, the price can made a ranging interacting w/ the neckline. Chaikin Money Flow hidden divergence & below zero + Awesome oscillator twin peaks in formation + Fisher Transform bear crossing.
EU 15 min ShortDaily internal Structure is bullish. 4H internal structure is bearish. 15 min swing structure bearish. I believe this is going to be a 4H pullback then once the 4H internal structure is bullish we can target the 4H swing high
Only going to entry after I see confirmation of price going lower
BTBT- 500% YTD Pullback for Long EntryBTBT, a stock with cryptocurrency mining activities, has been on a long sustained trend up
this year of 500% reflecting the crypotcurrency recovery and resurgence. In the past week,
it has pulled back and is now setup for an entry. This stock is similar to RIOT and MARA but
with a lower price and market cap. It had been trending along the second deviation line above
the long-term VWAP anchored at the beginning of the year. The pullback to the first deviation
the line above VWAP allows for an opportunistic long entry. The ascending amplitudes of the K
/D line excursions on the MACD indicator are confirmatory for the bullish momentum. I will take
a long trade here expecting a 50-100% return over the slow trading of the remainder of the
summer. I believe this will further diversity the portfolio by exposure to the crypto sector.
MULN trading the volatility LongOn the 30 minute chart, MULN has pulled back from a brief uptrend. I see things suitable for
an entry. I have added to the chart, the anchored VWAP lines serving as dynamic support and
resistance. The mean VWAP will be my designated stop loss while lines one and two
standard deviations above that are the first and second targets.
Overall, the long trade is projecting a ROI of 27% compared with the stop loss
of 11%. This trade could play out in only one day given MULN's volatility. The zero-lag
MACD shows a line cross impending and confluent with the zero horizontal line. The
relative volatility oscillator shows the magnitude of the shifts in that regard. From my
perspective, no matter the fundamentals of the financial health of MULN, the volatility
of the price action and technicals can be played long with high potential profit.