Rangetrading
BTCUSD 4H KELTNER CHANNEL RANGE TRADING STRATEGYTrading Ranging Markets with Keltner Channel
It is said that the number one account killer in the market is a ranging market. Consolidations are very difficult to trade. However, you can take advantage of the difference in the way the Keltner channel system can be used in combination with other technical indicators.
The price won’t really touch the bands when it bounces between the upper and lower envelopes. When we’re in a ranging market, you’ll often see that the price will fail to touch the bands. The majority of the time the price will hug the middle band.
This anomaly in price behavior requires us to use a secondary technical indicator to find profitable trades.
Since the Forex market spends most of its time in consolidation (around 70% of the time), it’s mandatory to have a range trading strategy to survive in this market.
For range trading, we like to use Keltner Channel bands in combination with a 2-period RSI indicator. We tweaked the RSI settings so we can better identify tops and bottoms within a trading range.
*Note #3: For this Keltner trading strategy we use the 90-10 levels of overbought and oversold readings.
Here are some rules that can guide you to make the best trading decisions:
Keltner envelopes need to turn flat, to signal a consolidation.
The price needs to break below the middle band.
A buy order is triggered once the 2-period RSI goes below 10 indicating oversold conditions.
The protective stop loss can be hidden on the other side of the Keltner band.
For the long side take profit when the RSI reaches the 90 levels.
Bitcoin's Range MovementPlease leave a LIKE and COMMENT if you like the analysis.
Yesterday's decrease caused the price to fall back within the $7150 - $6650 trading range. While it initially found some support above the midpoint of the range, it fell below afterwards. The bearishness is strengthened by the possible bearish cross between the 50- and 200-period moving averages (MA), otherwise known as a death cross.
An almost identical movement occurred on April 11. The price had increased above the resistance of the range, only to fall back inside it shortly afterwards. After the death cross occurred, the price moved upwards all the way to the resistance line, only to drop sharply afterward.
If the same movement transpired this time around, the BTC price would increase and touch the resistance line only to fall towards support afterward.
EURNZD 1D BULL FLAG LONG TRADEBull Flags are a Range pattern and are a repeatable trading chart patterns.
Bull Flag chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
Whatever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Some Clarity on 4H BitcoinMade this chart for clarity.
Purple lines are the HTF ranges we're within.
A break above them on 1D or 1W would make me HTF bullish.
A break below them on 1D or 1W would make me HTF bearish.
While neither happens, I'm neutral - we're just ranging.
Green Xs are where I think a lot of long stops rest. Lots of liquidity in those areas.
Red Xs are short stops. Also lots of liquidity but much of it has been tapped in last few days.
I'm waiting for a setup to form. Out of anytrade in the meanwhile.
If we break 6630 on the 1H, I'll short a possible retest of it, with green Xs as targets, and last high before breakdown as stops.
I'll only enter a long if we smash the purple line - top of our range.
SPY range trading, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders,
SPY had completed a 1-2-3 pattern and is consolidating its price pattern, this is very good technical news as price returned to standard behavior after moving wildly and unpredictably.
The current trade range is 245-265 in the short term, any move above the 265( which our model begins to increase the probability for! ) will provide a bullish short term indication,
moving below the 240-245 will provide the trigger that the market is headed to re-test the 220 lows.
We are currently short term bullish on SPY with PUT options hedging our position, crossing the 265-270 resistance will provide a major trigger to go long equities.
Trade Smartly,
Alon, AlphaOverBeta
CADCHF Price is in a Parallel channel will it continue? This is a full breakdown of my perception of Price action on higher time frames! I take my entries using smaller time frame confirmation and you should too. If you have any questions about this trade or my strategies feel free to ask them in the comment section below!
Good Luck!!!!!!!!!!!
12-Hour Time-Frame On BTCUSD Reveals The ChallengeThe red box is a trading range based on the first large red candle. We are currently trading inside of that candle. The previous 12 hour candle did close below but the current candle has popped up into the range again, so the break below was not confirmed.
MACD is pushing upwards towards the 0 level. If we can get to positive and break above that trading range then the journey back to the long-term blue trendline does not seem so great by the end of the month. The purple vertical line indicates the end of the month. This would paint a strong monthly reversal candle and the bull run will be back on.
With that optimistic view, based on MACD momentum as of right now, we remain bullish.
If the financial markets go through another strong break down, then of course all bets are off and bitcoin may tumble lower with the rest of global financial trading.
Traders may be opening longs here with stop losses placed below the red box. A good risk/reward position.
Range trading: Forex as for 17/03/2020Under that heading we publish signals of the indicator called “Ranger” . It was developed by our experts for intraday trading purposes.
This indicator is based on statistical analysis of the data and provides information about possible maximum/minimum values of the day (just right after the day has started) with certain probabilities.
What does this information give to the trader? Actually, a lot. First of all, trading signals. For example, if during a day the price approaches the upper (lower) mark, it can be concluded that it will not go higher (lower) prescribed mark today with already known probability. So, you can open a position opposite to the current movement, knowing in advance that it will be profitable with a certain probability.
EURUSD
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1067
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.1004
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.0941
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1280
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.1344
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.1406
GBPUSD
Long position 1 [/b
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.2112
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.2026
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.1940
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.2395
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.2481
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.2568
USDJPY
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 105.23
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 104.14
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 103.05
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 107.80
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 108.89
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 109.98
Calculations are based on the historical data and history doesn’t necessarily repeat this particular day. Recall, that mentioned probabilities are not 100% and do not guarantee risk-free trading.
CRUDE OIL - RANGE BETWEEN 28 - 38 - SHORTTTExpecting crude to be ranging from 38 to 28 level. Preferable short term setup. Short all the way at price 35 -38 with a very good risk reward.
Stochastic is approaching high level of 80 in 4H chart. 1D still stuck at low level of 20 indicating the price will not move up much in the short term.
Do remember the trend is your friend but do set your cut loss tight as well.
Happy Trading ! :)
Updates: Saudi Arabia, Russia raise stakes in oil production standoff (link attached)
Read more at:
economictimes.indiatimes.com
Range trading: Forex as for 16/03/2020Under that heading we publish signals of the indicator called “Ranger” . It was developed by our experts for intraday trading purposes.
This indicator is based on statistical analysis of the data and provides information about possible maximum/minimum values of the day (just right after the day has started) with certain probabilities.
What does this information give to the trader? Actually, a lot. First of all, trading signals. For example, if during a day the price approaches the upper (lower) mark, it can be concluded that it will not go higher (lower) prescribed mark today with already known probability. So, you can open a position opposite to the current movement, knowing in advance that it will be profitable with a certain probability.
EURUSD
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1071
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.1011
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.0950
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1197
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.1258
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.1319
GBPUSD
Long position 1 [/b
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.2256
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.2174
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.2091
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.2431
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.2513
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.2596
USDJPY
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 105.92
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 104.80
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 103.67
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 107.69
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 108.81
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 109.94
Calculations are based on the historical data and history doesn’t necessarily repeat this particular day. Recall, that mentioned probabilities are not 100% and do not guarantee risk-free trading.
USDCHF 1D HOW TO TRADE BREAKOUTS - HOW TO SURVIVE HEAD FAKESBreakouts are found using Trendlines - Horizontal Sup/Res Ranges - Channels.
Finding the opportunity to see the 2nd or 3rd breakout increases breakout success.
Use a tighter stop loss on a 15m chart helps reduce risk.
If caught in a head fake - with a lighter stop loss - watch for another breakout setup.
Hold for a longer intraday or daily trend move.
Silver Trading Within A High Volume Node It would appear as if the silver price is being controlled, imagine that... You can see that it's clearly trading within the high volume node to the right more or less. The RSI is also controlled within that range so watch for the RSI to to break range for a true trend change.
Watch out for a break above $18.80 or below $16.60 and then of course wait for confirmation before entering. Please give a like/ Follow me, and checkout my other charts.
This is not trading advice.
Bitcoin Revisits The Range LowsThe BTC price is trading inside a short-term range with the following limits:
Support - $7750
EQ -$7900
Resistance -$8050
Yesterday, it broke out above the resistance level but decreased below it shortly after, a strong bearish sign.
Currently, it is trading slightly below the EQ and has created a symmetrical triangle, which is a continuation pattern. Since it is coming after a decrease, a breakdown is expected that would take the price to the support level once more.
The $7650 area offers an interesting opportunity to look for longs in case the price initiates a failed breakdown and reverses to the other side.
BIG BEN BREAKOUT INDICATOR SHOWS TIMING OF TRADEBig Ben Indicator shows the Asian Session Range
Big Ben Indicator shows 1H pre-London area
Big Ben Indicator shows 1h London Open area
Big Ben Indicator shows pre-London Stop Hunt Breakout
Big Ben Indicator shows Sell Signal as London Opens
Big Ben Indicator shows the Entry Price level
Big Ben Indicator shows adjusting Trailing Stop
Big Ben Indicator shows Take Profit level
EURCHF 15M BIG BEN BREAKOUT INDICATOR DID IT AGAINBig Ben Indicator shows the Asian Session Range
Big Ben Indicator shows 1H pre-London area
Big Ben Indicator shows 1h London Open area
Big Ben Indicator shows pre-London Stop Hunt Breakout
Big Ben Indicator shows Sell Signal as London Opens
Big Ben Indicator shows the Entry Price level
Big Ben Indicator shows adjusting Trailing Stop
Big Ben Indicator shows Take Profit level
GBPCAD 15M BIG BEN BREAKOUT INDICATORBig Ben Indicator shows the Asian Session Range
Big Ben Indicator shows 1H pre-London area
Big Ben Indicator shows 1h London Open area
Big Ben Indicator shows pre-London Stop Hunt Breakout
Big Ben Indicator shows Sell Signal as London Opens
Big Ben Indicator shows the Entry Price level
Big Ben Indicator shows adjusting Trailing Stop
Big Ben Indicator shows Take Profit level
CADCHF 1W RANGE TRADESRanges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
USDJPY 15M BIG BEN BREAKOUT STRATEGY SHORTRule #1 Define the Asian (London) Trading Range
We’re going to use the range definition that takes into consideration only the body of the candles, excluding the wicks.
Note* this trading rule can be adapted as you get more experienced at reading the price action.
Who knows, maybe you’ll be able to discover some price action tendencies around the London open that no-ones was able to see.
The London open breakout strategy works because the Asia trading range tends to attract buy and sell stops above and below the trading range.
The bulk of buying and selling stops becomes an easy target for smart money.
Remember that traders need liquidity to execute their orders.
And, the smart money is always in search of liquidity to fill their large orders. That’s the reason why smart money needs to trigger those stops.
Rule #2: The One-Hour before the London Open Needs to Generate the Breakout
Our backtesting results revealed that momentum really starts to pick up 1-hour earlier than the actual London opening session.
There are some smart ways to trade this burst of momentum.
Let’s see some technical ways to trade the pre-London open.
We don’t need to guess in which way the market will break, we let the market tip his hand and show us the way.
This is where things get interesting.
Let me explain…
During the London session, we’re going to see the most traded volume thus the foreign exchange market should really take off in one direction or another.
From our example, we can note the USD/JPY is a one-sided move.
We didn’t have any interruptions in the momentum activity, and that’s the KEY for this whole trading setup to work.
Let’s now outline the second technical element you want to see with the London setup.
Rule #3 Fade the London Open Breakout (follow the smart money)
Immediately after the London session opens, we want to see the price fading the pre-open move.
If the price move starts fading, we know it was a false breakout
The smart money has used the pre-open move to trigger the stops below the range and now they reverse the tie and start buying.
We want to see price pulling back into the range at the same speed as it went up.
Let me explain…
In simple words, the bullish momentum used to produce the false breakout needs to be equal to the bearish momentum used to fade the pre-open move.
We enter our trade after the first 5-minutes have confirmed that the price is reversing.
Once this trade setup is completed, you should see a price formation that takes the V-shaped form (or inverse V-shape).
Let’s now explore what methods you can use to cash in the profits.
Rule #4 Take Profit or Ride the Trend
We can measure the size of the Asia trading range and project that, from the top or bottom of our range to get our profit target.
But, oftentimes this type of setup can lead to a trading day that can extend in the days to come.
In this example, the better take profit strategy would be to use a trailing stop.
You need to be ready to explore other trading methods to manage your trades.
Now…
Protecting the downside is as important as making money.
Below, we’re going to reveal how to use time as your stop loss.
Sounds interesting?
So, let’s get straight into the matter.
Rule #5 Use a Time Stop Instead of a Price Stop (or you use your TP trading method)
In order to fade the London breakout, you need to use unconventional trading methods.
In this regard, for our stop loss trading strategy we’re going to use a time stop instead of a price stop.
The first time I’ve ever heard about the time stop concept was while reading the Market Wizards book.
Billionaire Hedge Fund manager Paul Tudor Jones one of the greatest traders of our times said:
“When I trade, I don’t just use a price stop, I also use a time stop.”
If you want to get a glimpse into the mindset of the most successful traders and hedge fund managers, please read: Top Trading Quotes of All Time - Learn to Trade.
So, do you want to know how to apply the time stop to the London strategy?
It’s very simple…
If in the first hour after the London open the price didn’t COMPLETELY reverse the pre-opening breakout, we exit the trade.
It’s simple as that, no further explanation is needed.
Ranging Ethereum tradeLast trade was awesome happened as predicted on one of the two outcomes
Now, I believe Ethereum has established (or is currently establishing) a range on the hourly between 210-230. Trading a range is a recipe for losing capital because one develops a FOMO for missing out the break of the range, and hence, is 80% focussed on that while he forgets to focus on the current range. My idea to trade a range depends on the HTF sentiment of the market. I stand bullish on Cryptos upto the summer of 2020. So, I will play the ranges looking for an upward break, unless it reaches a previous/old Swing high, so I tend to set my Bids below the mid-range, i.e. 216-220 for the range marked in this trade, and will release 50% at top of the range, and rinse and repeat till we break upwards. However, if it starts to touch the lower boundary of the range, I will start to reduce my risk on the trade. Remember, the more times a Support/Resistance is touched, the more probable it becomes to break down.
If we break upwards, my target is 250 but do not place bids at 230. I would say 232, to be safe.
Average entry on this trade is at 221
Target is 230 - rinse and repeat with 50% TP at 230
Not a financial advice, and please manage your own risk
BEYOND MEAT 1D RANGE TRADESRanges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.