Smart Money Positioned to LONG RBOB - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Long
(RBOB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in RBif we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs max short of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who is causing the OI increase?". In this case, OI is increasing as Commercials add to long positioning, which is bullish.
ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed until ADX rollover). This is a significant "end of trend" indication.
Front Month Premium - bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
RB
11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook
#US30 #WeeklyOutlook
Last week did as expected by continuing to take out highs. We were busy Sunday to Wednesday and stalled out on early market closure because of the holiday. Next week should be busy with a lot of news and we may also get some early reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. We have news to watch out for everyday up until Friday at 11am when Powell speaks. However, we don’t have #NFP until next Friday. So #powell, #UnemploymentClaims, #PCE, #gdp, #Consumerconfidence, will be the big news releases to watch out for
#BullishCase: The bullish case is to take the PWH on each of the time frames. There are -POIs above us that are still our HTF draw. In the case of US30 we also have a W-RB(rejection Block)/D-OB that is just above the last PWH.
#BearishCase: The bearish case is the LTF -LP($) from the 1H TF. If we trade through this swing low with impulse, then I will aim for the PDLs from Thursday and Friday.
1H chart
4h chart
D chart:
W chart
GASOLINE Head and Shoulders likely to turn long-term bearishGasoline (RB1!) has been rising since the March 2020 bottom on a straight Channel until late February 2022 where war and inflation worries turned it parabolic as illustrated by the use of the Fibonacci Channel extensions. Following the June 06 market top, a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern was formed that hit (and so far rebounded on) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a level touched for the first time since December 23 2021.
A break below the Support, should target the lower extension of the 1D MA300 (green trend-line), if not a retest of the Shoulder Resistance and potentially rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) would initiate the 1D MA300 drop.
This trend-line has been Gasoline's Support since December 08 2020. This however may be the perfect opportunity to break it finally as the H&S pattern typically end such parabolas in fashion to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level. Interestingly enough, that happens to be currently on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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RBOB - (RB) Gasoline The SPR release was a non-event, why would it be.
Less asphalt is preferable.
Heavy Sours are not ever going to relieve Price.
The exception is DOT projects.
_____________________________________________
April to June as the Flip for unleaded fuel production.
Refineries lead this transition and switch over to summer-
blend production in March and April.
In the warmer months, gasoline has a greater chance of evaporating.
Refiners reduce the chance of gas evaporation in your car during the s
summer by producing gasoline blends that have lower Reid vapor pressure,
or lower volatility.
This isn't going to affect price this year.
______________________________________________
The Variant will, demand for Gasoline
Liquid fuels will increase by 3.5 million b/d in 2022 to average 100.5 million.
Given demand is well below 100 Million, we doubt this.
War Drum will likely have the desired effect and those are rapidly building
Globally as China has become an Isolationist.
Russia is keen on pushing back against an attempt to regain the upper hand in
NATO for the purposes of putting Putin in a corner.
2022 has the potential to be a very challenging year on many fronts.
Price volatility will increase dramatically as Energy moves in far greater swings.
________________________________________________
There is a rather Large Daily GAp Above.
RB - RBOB Unleaded GasIn_Flay_Shun - EX - Food & Energy isn't working out too well.
Unleaded Gasoline:
The Trend it is said - IS Your Friend
October 25, 2021 3.476
October 18, 2021 3.416
October 11, 2021 3.36
October 04, 2021 3.285
September 27, 2021 3.271
September 20, 2021 3.28
September 13, 2021 3.262
September 06, 2021 3.273
August 30, 2021 3.237
August 23, 2021 3.243
August 16, 2021 3.272
August 09, 2021 3.269
August 02, 2021 3.256
July 26, 2021 3.232
July 19, 2021 3.247
July 12, 2021 3.227
July 05, 2021 3.216
June 28, 2021 3.185
June 21, 2021 3.153
June 14, 2021 3.161
June 07, 2021 3.128
May 31, 2021 3.119
May 24, 2021 3.112
May 17, 2021 3.118
May 10, 2021 3.051
May 03, 2021 2.981
April 26, 2021 2.962
April 19, 2021 2.945
April 12, 2021 2.939
April 05, 2021 2.945
March 29, 2021 2.941
March 22, 2021 2.954
March 15, 2021 2.94
March 08, 2021 2.857
March 01, 2021 2.796
February 22, 2021 2.717
February 15, 2021 2.588
February 08, 2021 2.548
February 01, 2021 2.495
January 25, 2021 2.478
January 18, 2021 2.464
January 11, 2021 2.403
January 04, 2021 2.336
December 28, 2020 2.33
December 21, 2020 2.311
December 14, 2020 2.247
December 07, 2020 2.246
November 30, 2020 2.211
November 23, 2020 2.194
November 16, 2020 2.202
RBOB - (RB) GasolineThe price for 42,000 gallons of NY Hub Unleaded Gasoline continues to move higher.
Every Dip is bought.
Weekly Volumes witnessed the Sell Week of 10/17.
The Dip, of course, was bought.
It is simply following the trajectory of Crude Oil... or is it.
When RB was trading below $2.20 - the price of at the pump Unleaded...
Yeah, naw, it wasn't too much less than it is now.
Per Mile Taxes ahead.
CHAINLINK / BITCOINHello, FRIENDS! I think many OF YOU interested in different coins.
Today, let's also look at LINKBTC💥. This coin had great growth potential 💪🏻.
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Playing with altvines is like Russian roulette
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⏳Now we are looking at the Bitcoin hourly chart.⏳
Globally, the trend has not changed. 🔥The price stay on dynamic support.💪🏻
❗❗❗10 500 - the level, that the PRICE didn't break this year.🙅🏻♀️
And now I suggest you do nothing, but just watch! I can’t give you any trading signals.
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OUR SMALL CHAT ABOUT TODAY"S MOVE👇🏻
💥BITCOIN in ♒ Elliott Waves🌊Hello, friends!!!😘 Thank you for supporting my transaction yesterday !!!💪🏻💪🏻 (who didn't understand what I'm talking about, the link is attached below👇🏻).
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I can more often show you my real entry points into a deal with BTC !!!
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Let's look the price for a couple of hours and I'll make a new update for you.🎥
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❗Most likely we left the bottom🦘Hello, friends! 💋I hope everyone have good mood🌞
Let's look at the daily chart of the 🦘AUD / USD🦘
Most likely we left the bottom. (❗ Such drop price hasn't been since 2008 ❗).
So we can expect a price increase to the levels, that I noted on the chart.📊
What can you say, guys?🧐
💪🏻Real forecast??? Or do you have a different vision?
✍🏻Share with me in the comments!
And of course, stay with me💓
Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
🔺 TRIANGLES 🔺Hello, my dear friends!💋 Let's get a little developed👩🏻🎓 Today we a talking about 🔺 TRIANGLES 🔺.
These figures 🔺 of technical analysis are distinguished by some “deceit”, therefore they are assigned to a separate category.❗
This is due to the fact, that during their formation it's rather difficult to unambiguously determine in which direction the price impulse will follow - up or down.🤷🏻♀️ Among such figures, symmetrical, ascending and descending triangles are popular among many traders.
Of great importance ❗is the trend preceding the formation of the figure.
So,🔥 if the uscending triangle was preceded by a bullish🐃 trend, then the trend will most likely not change its direction.🔥
On the picture above, the blue 💙 lines - indicate the most probable scenario of the price movement after completion of the formation of the Ascending Triangle.
In green 💚 - a slightly less likely scenario that shouldn't be ruled out.
Thus, in most cases, the “Rising Triangle” is seen by traders as a bullish pattern.🐃 The appearance of this figure usually indicates consolidation before the resumption of the upward movement of prices.❗
💥 Other features of this figure :💥
🔺the upper resistance level passes through two or more local peaks approximately equal in height;
🔺the reliability of the figure increases in proportion to the duration of the previous uptrend;
🔺the lower resistance line consists of at least two consecutive minima, with each subsequent one must be higher than the previous one;
🔺often during the formation of this figure there is a decrease in trading volumes;
🔺the moment of breaking the resistance line should preferably be accompanied by an increase in trading volumes;
🔺after breaking through, the line of resistance of the figure becomes a line of support;
🔺the approximate purpose of further price movement usually corresponds to the width of the triangle formed by the upward movement.
👉🏻The “descending triangle” is often regarded by traders as a bearish🐻 pattern:
This pattern is formed on a downtrend 👇🏻, in most cases indicating its continuation. At the same time, as we can see in the figure near, sometimes when you exit this figure, the price moves in the opposite direction.
In its features, this figure is similar to the “Ascending Triangle” formed on the bull trend and, in fact, is its mirror image.🤲🏻
The "symmetrical 🤲🏻 triangle" is a relatively neutral figure:
However, for example, if the formation of the "Symmetric 🤲🏻Triangle" was preceded by an uptrend, then this pattern will signal a high probability of continued bull dominance in the market. The same for downtrend.
💥 Other features of the figure: 💥
🔺a triangle is considered reliable and indicates a high probability of the continuation of the trend, if the trend lasted for at least several weeks before its formation;
🔺to build this figure, at least four points are needed - two for the resistance line, two more for support (a more reliable triangle is formed by six points - three for the top line, and three for the bottom);
🔺as the triangle forms and the range narrows, the trading volume should decrease;
🔺the approximate purpose of price movement is usually determined by the width of the triangle.
❗❗❗ Traders should be very careful when working with a triangle, especially with a symmetrical one. Each time when forming such a figure, two likely scenarios of price movement should be taken into account at once.
Guys, I try very hard for you💓💓, I carefully select the material, I want to express my thoughts as clearly as possible! 💋💋I like to teach, I get pleasure of it😘 !!!
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✍🏻Write me in the comments if everything is clear to you, maybe you have any questions!🧐
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Always Yours Rocket Bomb🚀💣
My previous works!👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
💥BITCOIN to the moon 🚀🚀Hello, guys!👊🏻 Glad to see you on my daily Bitcoin review !!!😘
The price has broken through the descending channel. And confidently moving up .🚀
We can waiting for the price increase on the height of the channel 😉
I put the levels on the chart .📊
I'll try to make a video today for you with more detail !!!🎥
In meantime, you can read my new training post👩🏻🎓😘
Link below👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
✍🏻Write your thoughts in the comments
Stay in touch💋
Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
Drop price inside the channel is possible 👇🏻Welcome, guys.💓 Are You interested in gold?🧐 Let's take a look at the daily chart! ⌛
👉🏻We can see, that the price is moving in uscending channel.
🔥 In the near future, we can observe a price drop inside the channel to the level of 1650 - 1600. 🔥
❗Do you think, that gold can break through this channel and go down👇🏻?
Share your vision and plans in the comments✍🏻
Stay with me💋
Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
TRADING VS HOLDING The profitability of cryptocurrencies over a long period is very attractive. So why just not invest in cryptocurrencies according to the <> strategy and keep them a couple of years? 🤔
💥It's hardly possible to give an unequivocal answer to that question, since everyone has their own strategy, psychology, and risk appetite.💥
👍🏻 Some arguments in favor of trading: 👍🏻
👉🏻 not all cryptocurrencies live for a long time, and those assets that are now leaders can become outsiders after only a year or two;
👉🏻 investing in a Buy & Hold strategy is justifiable if there is significant free capital, that can be diverted from circulation for a long period of time.
❗❗ You can increase your profitability if you combine the holding strategy with active trading (or at least re-balance the portfolio from time to time).
👉🏻Giving preference only to long-term investment, it's impossible to acquire trading skills, which, by the way, can become an additional source of income.
👉🏻As for the arguments in favor of the Buy & Hold strategy, the image illustrates them most clearly🤣
Thus, trading allows you to profit in the short term, and long-term investment doesn't require frequent activities, as well as the study of various indicators and trading strategies.
However, in both cases, a rational choice of assets, discipline and balanced decision-making are required.
In any case, if you choose one of the strategies or their combination, you can't do it without knowledge and skills.
Therefore, I always urge you to develop, learn something new, and people who have long been on the market - don't stop self-development. 💪🏻💪🏻
Guys, if you liked my post, put me 👍🏻 and write your thoughts in a comments✍🏻
Don't forget to subscribe, if you aren't already😆
And of course, stay with me, dear💓💓💓
Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BRITISH POUND / AMERICAN DOLLAR Hello, friends! 👋🏻
💥Just a quick overview of the British Pound / American Dollar!💥
☝🏻Targets can be found on the chart.📊
Below👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 I'll put a link on my EDU post.
I made it on the Bitcoin's chart, but sence still the same🙌🏻
If you find my post useful, please put me like and subscribe💓💓💓
I'm very glad to be helpful for you😘😘😘
Stay with me 💋
Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
Clean up with Reckitt BenckiserBuy Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L)
Reckitt Benckiser Group plc is a manufacturer and marketer of health, hygiene, post-natal and home products. The Company's segments include ENA and DvM. The ENA segment consists of Europe, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Israel, North America, Australia and New Zealand. The DvM segment consists of North Africa, Middle East (excluding Israel) and Turkey, Africa, South Asia, North Asia, Latin America, Japan, Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Health, Hygiene, Home and Portfolio Brands categories are split across the geographical segments of ENA and DVM. Its range of hygiene products includes disinfectant cleaners, automatic dishwashing detergents, pest control, depilatory products and acne treatments. The Company's portfolio of brands includes Durex, Mucinex, Scholl, Strepsils, Cillit Bang, Clearasil, Dettol, Harpic, Lysol, Mortein, Veet, Air Wick, Calgon, Vanish and Woolite.
Market Cap: £44Billion
Reckitt Benckiser has had an indifferent few months. So often it’s a mainstay of investors portfolios with its predictable growth and solid stream of income. In recent months the share price has been in consolidation mode and not really offered investors very much. In recent weeks a bullish channel has formed, and we are beginning to see investors return on spells of weakness. The latest move from the lower end of the channel could be the beginning of a fresh move higher towards resistance at 7175p
Stop: 5980p
Target 1: 6710p
Target 2: 7165p
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How to use a SIGNAL So if you have been following my trades you may have noticed that I have been learning some new trading things. Like last weeks lesson, learning how to use a signal. Got the trade setup down great I think. Waiting patiently for the right market conditions. I just need to wait for a signal.
I think I will use price when it crosses the red 89 hour sma.