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RIG

RIG if pattern confirm OP up to $5Cup and handle pattern still on the going, but I change the objective price up to $4.9X to $5.06 MACD confirms the bearish movement, so we can expect the price goes lower, also StochRSI shows that we're on the bottom of the oscillation, so we can wait a few more days for the rising movement and the probabilty of a bullish trend if C&H pattern is confirmed. I think we can achieve the objective price before the next earnings results on august 2nd. Anyway: this is not an investment advice. but I'm in and I'll wait to see this. I think this is the same pattern for (with different objectives of course): NASDAQ:CDEV NYSE:CPE
NYSE:RIGLong
by v2c_cha
THE WEEK AHEAD: TSLA, RIG, X, EWZWith the vast majority of options-liquid earnings plays in the rear view mirror, premium selling becomes a search for just plain Jane high implied volatility underlyings. This week, TSLA, RIG, X round out out the top implied volatility single names; EWZ, the exchange-traded fund top implied volatility play. Here are some possible nondirectional setups, which are naturally preliminary ... . TSLA: The July 20th 225/330 short strangle is paying 10.15 with a 71% probability of profit metric and break evens at 214.85/340.15. Its defined risk counterpart, the 220/230/330/340 iron condor, is paying 2.66 at the mid with a probability of profit of 62% and break evens at 227.34/332.66. Ideally, I'd like to see a 70% probability of profit plus credit received greater than one-third the width of the wings, however, but would be hesitant to bring in the wings on this underlying, since it has a tendency to move big. RIG: The July 20th 14 short straddle is paying 1.87 with break evens at 12.13/15.87. Throw on a couple of cheap long wings to convert it into an iron fly -- the 11/14/14/17, and you bring in buying power reduction quite a bit over naked without giving up a huge amount of credit: it's paying 1.61 versus a max loss of 1.39 with break evens at 12.39/15.61. With iron flies, I like to see the setup pay at least 1/4 of the width of the longs (here, 6-wide), so this looks like a good, small buying power effect play. X: The July 20th 32/42 short strangle is paying 1.69 with a 69% probability of profit, break evens at 31.18/42.82. The corresponding 29/32/42/45 iron condor: .82 with break evens at 31.18/42.82. As with the Tesla play, I would like to see more out of the defined risk setup -- one-third the width of the wings in credit ... . EWZ: The July 20th 34/42 short strangle is paying 1.13 with a probability of profit of 69% and break evens at 32.87/43.13; the 31/34/42/45 iron condor, .75 with 33.25/42.75 break evens and a 66% probability of profit. Alternatively, the July 20th 33 short straddle is paying 3.88 with 34.12/41.88, with the corresponding 31/38/38/45 iron fly paying 3.50 with a 3.50 max loss metric and break evens of 34.50/41.50. As with the RIG iron fly, the cheap longs bring in buying power effect quite a bit over naked without giving up a ton in credit received ... .
N
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: RIG, CRON, IQ, CZR EARNINGS; OIH/XOPEARNINGS: RIG (30/54) announces on Monday after market close; CRON (18/98), Tuesday before market open; and CZR (45/58) and IQ (22/64) on Thursday after market close. RIG Setups: Given its size (8.93/share as of Friday close), only a short straddle makes sense for a nondirectional play. Unfortunately, the March 9 only pays .96, making a 25% max take profit a marginal trade. The April 9 pays more (1.44) with a 25% max of .36, which doesn't exactly rock my socks. CRON Setups: Pictured here is a 16 delta short strangle in the April expiry which is preliminarily paying 1.87 at the mid (.93 at 50% max) with a delta of .55 and a theta of 3.68. The March 16 delta at the 17/28 was paying .93 (.46 at 50%) with a delta of .84 and a theta of 4.74. For those of a defined risk bent, I'd probably go out to April for more room to be wrong: the April 18th 14/17/30/33 brings in 1.10 preliminarily (.55 at 50%), delta 4.26, theta 1.05. CZR Setups: Like RIG, CZR is on the small side (9.15 as of Friday close). The March 9 short straddle is paying 1.12; the April, 1.52 (another non-sock rocker). IQ Setups: In spite of its sexy background volatility, single strikes aren't available in either the March or April monthlies, making this underlying particularly pesky to work a nondirectional like a short strangle or iron condor with "surgical precision." Consequently, I could see taking a bullish assumption shot either via short put -- the April 20 (30 delta) is paying 1.13 with a downside break even of 18.87 (a 13.4% discount over current price), or the April 25 short straddle that pays 6.38 with a 39 long delta metric and break evens of 18.62/31.38. A May 25 short straddle may be available next week post-February opex, which would present a flatter delta metric for the 25 short strad than the April setup. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS The top five ranked by implied: UNG (51/57), OIH (22/31), XOP (17/30), EWZ (13/30), and USO (15/30). Although ranks are generally at the low end of their 52 week-ranges given the volatility spike we experienced in December, I'll continue to sell nondirectional premium (short straddles, generally) in my petro go-to, XOP, albeit using a smaller numbers of contracts than when background volatility was higher.
NASDAQ:CRON
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: TEVA, BIDU, RIG, XOPBIDU (44/42), RIG (33/56), and TEVA (49/53) announce earnings this week, with TEVA looking for a March to April volatility contraction of about 15%, BIDU, approximately 7.7%, and RIG, 6.9%. Instead of looking to play these pre-announcement for a volatility contraction (the contraction percentages aren't that compelling), I'll look to potentially short put/acquire/cover instead,* particularly since all of these underlyings have been hammered of late and are at the low end of their 52-week ranges. Pictured here is a Plain Jane, TEVA 20-ish delta 16 short put in the April expiry; it's paying .51 with a break even of 15.49. The more aggressive 30 would be at the 17 strike and is currently paying .79 with a 16.21 break even. On margin, the 16 short ties up about 320 to put on, the 17, 340, with respective returns on capital of 16% and 23% at max. The break evens represent a 15% discount over current price for the 16 short put; an 11% discount for the 17. The BIDU April 18th 155 (25 delta) is paying a 4.55 credit with a break even of 150.45, a potential 14.7% return on capital at max and a 11.4% discount over current price if assigned. As with TEVA, there is little point in holding shares if you don't have to, since it does not pay a divvy. If you end up in-the-money, roll as is and proceed to sell calls against to reduce cost basis. If you're not into tying up 31.00 in buying power on Baidu, there is RIG. Unfortunately, due to its size, you're going to have to go closer to the money to make it worthwhile in dollar and cents terms: the April 15th 8 short put (40 delta) is paying .57 with a break even of 7.43 -- a 35.6% potential return on capital at max and a 10.3% discount over current price if assigned. On the exchange-traded fund front, not much is hopping from a premium selling standpoint with VIX dropping into the 15's from its 2018 year-end highs of 36+, so I'll be looking to hand sit and keep powder dry for a higher volatility environment to get into nondirectional setups in broad market instruments. That being said, I will continue to sell premium in XOP, where the 30-day implied is over twice that of the broader market (34.1% versus SPY 15%). * -- The natural alternative should you not be interested in acquiring shares would be to roll the short put out in time "as is" if it hasn't worked out and then proceed to cover with a short call. The last two dividends were a paltry .07, so I could see not wanting to tie up buying power to be in the shares unless you absolutely have to.
NYSE:TEVA
by NaughtyPines