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Rising Wedge

Update on the market crash Duursma, Yuri. summary of the potential market crash 2021-2022 analysis + why •Short↘️🔻(waiting for the right time) written on: 20:26 Thursday, October 28, 2021 (updated on Wednesday November 10th) Central European Time (CET) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) We broke out of a rising wedge a couple of weeks ago. On the 3rd of November, we broke back into the wedge. 2 days later on the 5th, we hit the top of the wedge, following with a rejection to the downside. so we are probably heading towards the bottom of the wedge. The rising wedge closes on $4880. And since there is an extremely high probability that a wedge breaks out towards the downside, the price will drop to arround $4150. However, I think that this event will cause the markets to panic because there are a lot of other factors that are causing problems in the markets. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is at 40.14 on the day of writing this. The mean is at 16.88 and the median is at 15.86. 40.14/16.88*100≈ 238% 238-100= 138% This means that we are 138% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at 218%. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. •long term trendline warren buffet indicator: We are 71% higher then the long-term trend line. •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. •The inflation of the USD is at its highest point since the 90s (also higher then in 2008) (5.4% at the moment). And normally the inflation grows slowly, but this year in particular the inflation has grown with a rapid rate. •evergrande is already starting to miss their payments. They have missed 3 payments so far. The rule is that you get a 30 day period to pay the bills of the missed coupons, when you don't pay back the bills within 30 days, a company defaults. When evergrande defaults, the everything bubble could definitely burst.A gigantic flash sell will happen when Evergrande defaults that can have great consequences for all economy's. But wait, its not only evergrande. its almost every Chinese property company that has massive amounts of debt. No one is talking about that. Debt *always* has to be payed back. •Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a market cap of $144B. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. •A lot of people think that China will help evergrande but most of the bagholders are in the US or Canada so why would China help them? •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash on their hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. •palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. •reverse repo has never been this high. $1.377,197 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •fibonacci extension tells us that $4939.75 could be the end. •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. •Eliotte waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now. so the next wave will be a market correction. •October 29th could be really bad. Its the 28th at the time of writing this (the 29th in China) and evergrande still hasn't payed its coupons from 29 september. Which means that they could be defaulting very soon. they still owe 304 billion usd. *update* they defaulted 2 hours ago on November 10th 2021 (they payed the 118 million that had to pay on the 29th, 10 minutes before they were going to default). they sold 2 private jets. On march 23 they have to pay back 2.1B usd. If they were struggling with 118M, how are they going to pay 2.1B? which means that they can delay the payment to the 23th of april before defaulting. We can easily go down 35-50% to big support levels but I don't think these support levels are going to hold a crash like this.This crash could be a very big one. 80% or more is not even unrealistic at this point. We messed up so now its time to pay for our mistakes... Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go 10% higher to the 5000s, but a crash is inevitable. If it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
8
Tron TRXUSD - Next wave +1000%, Elliott wave + Wedge!- On the chart we can see an incomplete Impulse Elliott Wawe (5th wave). - Rounding bottom or cup and handle is also printing on the chart. - Volume is very bullish and also RSI is prepared for another pump! - Target is 1.618 fib trend-based extension + top of the ascending wedge + 5th elliott wave. - For expected duration of the trade, probability, stop loss, profit target, entry price and risk to reward ratio ( RRR ) - please check my signature below ↓ - Huge bullish volume is also one of the positive signs! - If you want to see more of these ideas, hit "Like" & "Follow"!
KRAKEN:TRXUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
18
REEF ANALYSISHere's a quick look at REEF 4D chart . As we can see, the price has been showing a trend line support and moving in the Rising wedge. It also respecting box patter n and moving nice in box ,breaking upside only .We can see a breakout anytime in any direction . Wait for retest and buy it surely. Definitely one to keep an eye on . The best entry at 0.028$ or after breakout upside and retest. Targets 1 0.03827$ 2 0.045404$ IF YOU LIKE THIS SHOW SOME LIKE AND FOLLOW THAT WILL ENCOURAGE ME THANK YOU
RLong
by YouDo_
1
Will the Euro's current downward trend continue?Investors are concerned about inflationary pressures and their influence on monetary policy and economic recovery. Meanwhile, all US market indexes reached a new high on Friday. The Stoxx 600 stock index in Europe was generally balanced. The EUR is attempting to break out of its rising wedge and retest the October high of 1.6850. If the bulls prevail, the next possible support/resistance level would be 1.75 - 1.77. In contrast to this idea, if the bears seize control of the market, the next 1.45 - 1.40 range might serve as possible support.
by VipForexLive
LINK/USDT : Targeting $100 into Wedge, Located at the bottom !BINANCE:LINKUSDT Hello everyone 😃 Before we start to discuss, I would be glad if you share your opinion on this post's comment section and hit the like button if you enjoyed it ! #LINK is moving in a historical rising wedge since 6th.Dec 2018. Now there are 4 taps on higher trendline and 3 taps on lower trendline, Based on the repetition rules, There can be another retest on lower trendline. But #LINK is already in wedge's scale ! So If It gave us the chance to retest the lower, It'll be our 2nd spot to enter. Now the 1st entry is located above the current resistance line, We can enter #LINK for long-term hold after a breakout above the $35's resistance line ! Also there's another trendline, Which is supporting the movement from below and it's currently affecting the movement on 1D's chart : 📊 Possible Targets : There're mentioned targets on daily chart above, But there'll be more surges after conquering the ATH; The levels are calculated by FIB extension. - $49.60 - $74.10 - $104.80 As we reaches the last target, We might retest the higher trendline neither ! So It's suggested to drive out you holding on mentioned FIB's levels. 📌 Try to use partial entries ! 1st will be a hold above $35 and 2nd entry will be a retest on lower trendline. 🙋🏼‍♂️ Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support us with your likes and comments ! 🔰 Feel free to ask your questions in comments and share your opinion there, I'll be waiting for you (●'◡'●) Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision. Have a good day! @Helical_Trades
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Helical_Trades
70
Shiba Inu SHIBUSDT - Bull flag + Double TOP- SHIBA INU - SHIB - Rank #11 - Token. - On the chart we can spot a huge rising wedge on the LOG scale. - Also the chart is printing a bull flag / bullish pennant! - Crypto market usually ends with a double top / double bottom, so there is still a space to go. - I would not buy Shiba inu, it's just a technical analysis. - For expected duration of the trade, probability, stop loss, profit target, entry price and risk to reward ratio (RRR) - please check my signature below ↓ - If you want to see more of these ideas, hit "Like" & "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
8
CL: On its way to 94.Oil is right now stuck in a rising wedge. This wedge extends to its vertex at point 94.52 at around its rough date of December 12th. This where vertex converge on schematic drawing. I always to confirm my drawings which be subjective in nature with quantitative analyzing. For most wedge pattern this subjective can be confirm with more objective by using area of mathematics called Connectivity Prediction. There is online article in regarding to his model "Delphi: Geometry-based Connectivity Prediction in Triangle Mesh Compression". I have adapted a few paramaters at this model to make it be more appliable to market analasis. You can seen the wedge trend generally is follow rules of a wedge. at wedge support RSI is under 50 to oversold and at wedge resistance RSI is more then 50 to overbought. This is also confirm on other indicators. You can see on chart I buy at 76 and I have added at to my position when price gos down to support. I did exit premature at one point and missed out some profit, but I quickly re-enter. Let's see how or if this works out for us. thank you for reading and following your Miss Bunny. Please spread kindness and love. It feels good and makes our world better. Miss Bunny
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
7
Not Much to Say About AMCOkay so I waited a week for the price action. $34.50s (I call $33 but I was wrong but I was okay with $34 because $36 bounce was unlikely to me) was the bottom and we explode to $44.21 before selling off. Expect a bull pennant this week into next week. If we breakout this bull pennant. Expect $48 the resistant again and creating a rising wedge to the $50s again. I will talk about more later when we reach the $47s+. So this is my rough sketch play out this month. We might go much higher sooner though. Nobody knows. Expect some update later.
NYSE:AMC
by gojira91
0x ZRXUSDT - Elliott Wave + Rising wedge- 0x - ZRX - Rank #101 - Token - ZRX is very bullish on the weekly macro scale. - We have a rising wedge, that greatly holds support. - Bullish volume is higher and RSI is prepared for a pump! - Profit target 1:1 fib extension or top of the wedge - For expected duration of the trade, probability, stop loss, profit target, entry price and risk to reward ratio ( RRR ) - please check my signature below ↓ - If you want to see more of these ideas, hit "Like" & "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
9