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GDP is Bad and You Should Feel BadThe GDP number of 2.7% growth is being propped up by net exports, while consumption is at a cycle low. This is horrible for earnings expectations and risk assets. Net exports were at a low in prior quarters, making the economy look worse off than it was. Now the economy is actually worse off than it is and the metric is instead making it look better. This is why the NBER doesn't use "two quarters of negative GDP" to date recessions. There are too many false signals. Don't fall for the GDP meme. The pain is coming.
FRED:GDPC1Short
by coinhoIio
💲Amount of Return Necessary to Restore to Original Equity Value💲In today's educational post, I would like to share with you a post on: Amount of Return Necessary to Restore to Original Equity Value 10% - 11.1% 20% - 25% 30% - 42.85% 40% - 66.66% 50% - 100% 60% - 150% 70% - 233% 80% - 400% 90% - 900% 100% - ☠️ 💲Remember, never risk more than 0.5%-2% of your capital on one positions 💲Never lose money you can't lose 💲Take care of yourself and your capital <3
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by InvestMate
5
Catching a Falling Knife with AMD on the 30 minute chartBetting on a price increase after a sharp price decrease is called "catching a falling knife". In fact, you may have heard someone say, "don't try to catch a falling knife." The analogy is meant to sound dangerous because it is very risky to buy a stock that is dropping rapidly. The hope is that if you time it right, you will get in at the bottom and make big profits. The opposite is true as well, but catching a knife thrown upward sounds like an even worse idea. I would like to suggest that it's possible to profit from a knife-catching strategy if you manage your risk and timing properly. In the chart for AMD, I've marked the opportunities to catch a falling (or rising) knife, which have been occurring on a daily basis for the past week. For AMD, a price bottom has typically been forming after the price has dropped significantly over the previous day. And a top has formed after the price has risen significantly over the previous day. Sometimes it's not clear if a bottom or top has formed such as on October 25. In that case, it's a coin flip (50% chance of being right). The key to success in this strategy is to set a tight stop loss and to buy or sell short during the pre-market (yellow-shaded area). There were at least 6 excellent opportunities last week to do this. Unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention to AMD until the morning of Friday, October 28. I saw the opportunity and realized that there was no way my order would have a chance to go through when the market opened if the price was making a dramatic move. I bought a half hour before the market opened (9:00 AM Eastern) and set my stop loss below the low reached post-market the previous day. Once the market opened, the price was already climbing and I got out before 10:00 AM Eastern. My risk-reward ratio was 1:5. That is, I risked 1 dollar for every 5 dollars I profited. Not too shabby. It appears that Monday is going to be another great opportunity, and I will be watching the pre-market closely. I will be setting a stop loss at 62.30 and a take profit of around 59.50. Although I will be watching for the right time to get out, which is usually when the price reverses, and I chicken out as I did on the 28th. Monday's trade will be going against the larger trend which I believe is heading to 73 by the end of November. See the link to my longer-term analysis of AMD. This is not a 100% fool-proof strategy, and the conditions that make this look easy can change completely and without notice. Also, the volatility can stop you out too soon. Take a look at October 22 for an example of where I would have been stopped out and lost out on the subsequent big move. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions. I'd like to add that developing these analyses is a powerful educational tool for the one doing the analysis (namely me). It helps me formulate my thoughts and plan my trades so that I can make the best decisions possible. I'm training my brain to eventually do this automatically when I glance at a chart. It's a skill that I hope will benefit me for the rest of my life. I hope you enjoyed reading as much as I did writing. Give some thought to publishing your own ideas. I highly recommend it. Have a profitable week!
NASDAQ:AMD
by cdnbuzzard
Nasdaq NQ hovering @wma200/mma50/June low zone;Diamond again?Nasdaq, si,liar to SPY has made 2 diamond patterns in May & June leading to a reversal with positive Rsi divergence. Could it be repeating similar set-up this Sept-Oct? It is currently hovering around the mma50+wma200+June low zone. Sometimes prices break a little below the diamond pattern first eating away the cut-losses before a reversal. If NQ makes another new low after Thursday’s economics data, it will be bad news. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by xtremerider8
BTC returns to mean/pivot@19500;Bollinger squeezing for big MoveBTC keeps returning to the pivot line at 19500 which also acts as a support. It is also barely holding the base of the triangle as support. Bollinger Band is squeezing for a big move soon. As for now, the Head & Shoulder pattern neckline is still not yet broken, suggesting much lower prices if the neckline breaks. We just have to wait which way it breaks. If current double support holds, we may be seeing 22k next. If SPY continuous to break below the June low this week after major economic data on Thursday, there is a big chance BTC support will also fail. Then the17k to 16K zone is the next support. Not trading advice.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by xtremerider8
EDUCATION WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown ExplainedHey traders , is it drawdown . The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time . Imagine you started to trade with 10,000 $ account . At the end of the year , your account size reached 15,000 $ . 1 However , at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000 $ . It was the absolute minimum for the one - year period . At some point , your net loss was -4,000 $ or 40 % of your account balance . The account drawdown is 40 % . ! Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy . Usually , 50 % and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk . There are 3 types of drawdown to know Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated with the negative total value of opened trading position ( s ) at present . Once you start trading with 10,000 $ deposit , you open several trading positions . Being opened , with the constant price movements , your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative . For examples , with 3 active trades : EURUSD ( -500 $ at present ) ; GBPUSD ( + 200 $ at present ) ; GOLD ( -100 $ at present ) your current account drawdown is -400 $ or 4 % of your deposit . Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading position ( s ) at present for a certain period of time . While some of your trades remain active , some are already closed . Imagine the same deposit - 10,000 $ . On Monday you opened 6 trades , 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed . Your total loss from your closed trades is -500 $ . Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5 % . Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by dr_heidary
WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown Explained 📚 Hey traders, In my videos, I frequently use the term "drawdown". Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples. The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time. Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account. At the end of the year, your account size reached 15,000$. However, at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000$. It was the absolute minimum for the one-year period. At some point, your net loss was -4,000$ or 40% of your account balance. The account drawdown is 40%. ❗️Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy. Usually, 50% and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk. There are 3 types of drawdown to know. Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated with the negative total value of opened trading position(s) at present. Once you start trading with 10,000$ deposit, you open several trading positions. Being opened, with the constant price movements, your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative. For examples, with 3 active trades: EURUSD (-500$ at present); GBPUSD (+200$ at present); GOLD (-100$ at present) your current account drawdown is -400$ or 4% of your deposit. Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading position(s) at present for a certain period of time. While some of your trades remain active, some are already closed. Imagine the same deposit - 10,000$. On Monday you opened 6 trades, 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed. Your total loss from your closed trades is -500$. Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5%. Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from the highest value of the deposit before a new maximum is reached. Starting to trade with 10,000$ you are already trading for 5 years. Your account were growing rapidly and at some moment it reached 25,000$. Then the recession started. You faced a dramatic loss of 12,500$ before you started to recover. That was the maximum observed loss for the period. Your maximum account drawdown was 50%. ❗️Different types of drawdown give a lot of insights about a trading strategy. Its proper assessment will help to spot a high risk strategy and to find a conservative one. Constantly monitor your account drawdown and always check the numbers. What is your highest account drawdown? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
15
High Risk & High Reward - LUNA CLASSICHello Team, As we can see LUNC is forming a massive falling wedge after a huge run up (Bullish Formation : *Upon Breakout). A strong volume resistance break to the upside from this falling wedge can have massive upside potential. We are looking to start adding small positions as we continue lower. Key Notes: This is a very high risk play due to being a highly skeptical trading pair; only for small position sizing. Fundamentals to follow: Bitcoin Strength/Weakness USD/Stock Market Strength/Weakness : Strong Correlation Previous Posted LUNA/C Trade: 1000%+ Run to the upside
Long
by GenesisGo
1
>1%Hello everyone Today I want to discuss with you a serious issue of risk management. Surely each of you has heard about the 1% rule: do not risk more than 1% of your capital in one transaction. The rule is well-known and quite useful, it is better to lose 1% than the entire capital. Beginners, although they know this rule, rarely follow it and this is a big problem. I think this is the main problem of beginners, people think that the problem is strategy, but FOREX trading is a game of probability. The Probability Game Not every trader understands what probability is. Most are afraid to study this question because they are afraid of long mathematical formulas. Do not be afraid, you need to study! And even if you don't want to do it, there is an easier way. In simple words: probability is something that happens more often than usual, but not always. Not clear? Let's take any pattern. By the method of research and observations, experienced traders decided that this pattern is often found on the market and it can be traded, while trading this pattern does not promise 100% results. This means that if you trade this pattern infinitely many times, you will be in the black at a distance. At a distance… We're getting close. Distance is a series of transactions. Whatever pattern you choose, whatever strategy you have, you need distance, you need to make a series of trades so that the pattern works out in order to understand whether this strategy is really profitable. But if you risk everything or almost everything in one trade, what distance will you have? Exactly. Without a series of trades, you will not be able to profit from the pattern, without risk management and following the 1% rule, you will not be able to make a series of trades, because your capital will disappear very quickly. Do you think that 1% is too little? Professional traders risk an even smaller percentage in transactions. The goal is to stay in the game as long as possible and that's when you'll be super profitable. Traders who risk less than 1% in transactions get huge profits at a distance, so don't worry about profits, think about losses, how to reduce and avoid them. Demo account The biggest advantage of a demo account, in my opinion, is that it is free and every trader can train to follow risk management for free and as much as he wants. I advise you to set aside a month for trading on a demo account with the right risk management. Set a goal not to open trades with a risk of more than 1%. And no matter what your strategy is, just follow the rule. I assure you, you will see the difference. Analyze, study, train and victory will find you. good luck! Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Education
by Lingrid
6
Some helpful trading tips ✅✅Trading Advise from Richard Dennis who turned a $400 trading account into $200 million. 1. Whatever method you use to enter trades, the most critical thing is that if there is a major trend, your approach should assure that you get in that trend. 2. A good trend following system will keep you in the market until there is evidence that the trend has changed. 3. When you have a position, you put it on for a reason, and you’ve got to keep it until the reason no longer exists. 4. You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the extreme. Don’t think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do. 5.  Trading decisions should be made as unemotionally as possible. 6. Trade small because that’s when you are as bad as you are ever going to be. Learn from your mistakes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by cryptobrainbox
Stop Loss Alone is not Risk Management - What is Your SystemTo be successful, you must develop consistency in your trading. You can achieve this by creating a system to trade. One that provides an edge to fit your lifestyle and personality. Discipline is required to stick to your system so that you can measure results (wins and losses) over a large number of trades. A simple journal helps you to measure your trades. This provides edge and success unfolds over time, requiring a strong mindset to create, adhere and measure. Goals are achievable through steps that are part of the process. Things to consider when developing your system are: Market Phase, Price Structure, Areas of Value, Areas of Entries as well as Exits, Multi Time Frame Analysis, Trend Lines, Support and Resistance, Dynamic Support and Resistance etc. Pro Tip: Trade clean and don't clutter your charts. Trade around a couple of levels with a single indicator. Be PATIENT to let trades come to you once you have made a trading plan. And when the market enters your zone, be READY to take action and trigger your entry based on rules. If you're a new trader or a struggling trader, feel free to reach out and ask me a question. If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Education
by imr4nkh8n
Trading Psychology | How to Perceive Your Trades 👁 Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss a common fallacy among struggling traders: overestimation of a one single trade. 💡The fact is that quite often, watching the performance of an active trading position, traders quite painfully react to the price being closer and closer to a stop loss or, alternatively, coiling close to a take profit but not being managed to reach that. Fear of loss make traders make emotional decisions: extending stop loss or preliminary position closing. The situation becomes even worse, when after the set of the above-mentioned manipulation, the price nevertheless reaches the stop loss. Just one single losing trade is usually perceived too personally and make the traders even doubt the efficiency of their trading system. They start changing rules in their strategy, then stop following the trading plan, leading to even more losses. ❗️However, what matters in trading is your long-term composite performance. A single position is just one brick in a wall. As Peter Lynch nicely mentioned: “In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.” There are so many factors that are driving the markets that it is impossible to take into consideration them all. And because of that fact, we lose. The attached chart perfectly illustrates the insignificance of a one trading in a long-term composite performance. Please, realize that losing trades are inevitable, and overestimation of their impact on your trading performance is detrimental. Instead, calibrate your strategy so that it would produce long-term, consistent positive results. That is your goal as a trader. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
15
'Spidey sense' tingling? Depends how you know what you know.Safe experience lull you into a false sense of security, even when you know about a clear and present danger. That's what experts on risk and decision making** say about the role of our personal experience in our risk perception. Take 9/11 for example. Many, suddenly concerned about the risk in flying, opted to drive instead. However, in reality the risk of injury or death while driving is multiple times that of flying. Why was driving perceived as safer? Studies of decision making say that a big factor is the *way* people get most of their information. When that information comes from repeated personal experience (like car trips) it is given a bigger weight in the decisions we make. The catch is when the typical experience shows no danger simply because the threat is very rare, novel (for us) or out of our awareness. It's August 25th, 2022 and, stock indexes are levitating, held up by some unseen force. The "Doom and Gloom" on you tube is starting to ring hollow. We know the risks: inflation, dollar, rates, etc. etc. etc. I won't bore you further with my mundane perspective of, what has been for me, a mundane market. You already know the punchline cleverly hidden in the chart on the right (a 3 day chart of VIX). Out of curiosity, was I the only one caught off guard? If you were asked, out of the blue, to draw the 3 day VIX, would it look like that? and lastly- The best explanation I have is the one offered above. What would you add? or subtract? -Trade Safe. **The research on decisions from experience is extensive but these are good points of departure: Thinking Fast and Slow , D. Kahneman. Chapter 30. Rare Events The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable Paperback – January 1, 2008. pp 76-78 Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choices. Psychological Science . 15. 534-539. Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E., and Erev, I. (2004). The Effect of Safe Experience on a Warnings’ Impact: Sex, Drugs, and Rock-n-Roll ." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 106, no. 2 (July 2008): 125-142. Barron, Greg, Stephen George Leider, and Jennifer N. Stack. "
SP:SPX
by gb50k