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Risk!!!

Bitcoin update, Bull flag The last 24 hours have been quite interesting and informative. We saw a nice breakout from the bullfrog on lower timeframes but as many times seen on bitcoin a clear rejection from the top and a dump back to where we started. I think we can go to 4250$ today if the support don't break if the support breaks then we can go all down to 3800$. If BTC goes up i will see how BTC reacts and take a short position on 4210 - 4240. I trade on Bitmex guys let me know what are your thougts :) Your @dk.kern
BITMEX:XBT
by DavidKern
OIL UKOIL BCOUSDPlease find information in the chart bubbles. good luck and have fun trading! always focus on money management. you can take a lot of 1% losses but your account can only handle a view big losses, right? when you lose 10% e.g. 1000$ of your 10k account then you have 9000 left. the next 10% risk trade is only 900$, so the potential winning gets smaller, too. after that 2nd one being stopped out again you have some 8100$ left! risking again 10% of that is 810$ risk for the 3rd trade. now this one needs to be more than -more- than a 1:2 winner to get you back to breakeven. if lost you have some 7300$ left. with again risking 10% (730$) in the 4th trade this one need to be a 1 : 3.6 winner to get you close to breakeven... hope you see the point. in addition: think of your psychology. what does it do to your trading style when you started with 10000$ account and you only have 5000$ left? are you panicking? are you still trading your proven strategy? are you averthinking things and switching markets or strategies or rules? a good chance you will do stupid tings like that, right? ;)
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by ernstschwarz
2
YEN on a knife's edge. Is the big one around the corner?The global carry trade makes the JPY a good indicator of risk sentiment. When things start to go south you'll see the global carry trade unwind as traders sell USD and buy JPY. Looking at the chart you can see that risk off environments are often punctuated by spikes lower in USD/JPY as there were lately in Oct and Nov. However zooming out and looking at a longer timeframe shows us that the YEN is finely balanced closing right on it's trend line. While I expect it to move lower in the long term as the equity bear market gains steam, for the moment it hasn't broken out and if it can manage to hold and even rally from here the implications would be short term positive for equities.
Short
by The_Pain_Trade
What is the probability of a pullback? Cut your losses smartlyIf people expect an Inverted Head & Shoulders, chances could be very meager in terms of probability. What is the % of chance that we go back to 12xxx? How much time would it take? What would be the bullish triggers, if any? The markets took quite a bit of time and strength to break through the support I've drawn around 11183. If you were long above any support lines and didn't cut, unless you are playing huge bets and that everything is still going according to your original plan, then you should consider cutting quickly any losses from long positions above the support that could become a resistance. Accept the losses, and go again with the trend afresh. You don't want that burden. If anyone tells me that the current daily trend is bullish, then I should reasses my understanding of a bullish trend. Be nimble in cutting losses when it clearly goes against you. There's a lot of readings about risk and money management that are available. Don't let cognitive biases overwhelm you.
FX:GER30
by UnknownUnicorn569872
Gold Projections Using Elliot Wave TheoryHello Traders Here I present to you my wave count on Gold. Gold has been on a steady rise since August completing a full impulse wave cycle and now starting a corrective wave cycle. The last NFP figure falling short at 155K instead of the forecast at 198K alongside with falling wage growth at 0.2% gave way to further upside for Gold. Also the end of the interest rate hike cycle is fueling a more risk averse market sentiment that is pushing Gold prices to an overbought RSI territory. The overbought indication is also reflected on the past two days price action with the bullish momentum stalling @1251.00 price point. In this particular setup I am looking to position short at the corrective wave at point B @1240.00 and trade the last wave until we reach point C @1220 that falls on the prevailing trend line. Alternatively we can position around @1220 level to get an entry in case price finds support on said trend line and ride the next uptrend impulse on the long side. Trade safe, Trade well.
TVC:GOLDShort
by fromzerotospyro
EW ANALYSIS: Risk-Off Sentiment Could Continue; NIKKEI+USDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about Risk-Off mode over NIKKEI225 and USDJPY, where we see a tight positive correlation! As you can see, the main driver for the USDJPY sell-off was NIKKEI225, which may continue later this week, since we have seen an impulsive five-wave decline. In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows and we can already see an a-b-c correction in progress, where wave »c« is still missing, so be aware of a Monday rally towards projected resistance areas, from where we may see another sell-off in the stock market and consequently also in the USDJPY! That said, in the NIKKEI225 futures chart, we are tracking a three-wave a-b-c corection, where 22000 resistance area can be tested, before we may see a sell-off continuation! So, as long as it's trading below 22780 highs, we will remain bearish! If we respect correlations, then it's similar with USDJPY, in which we think that 113 area, specifically 113.25 – 113.35 resistance area can be retested before another sell-off, so while it's trading beneath 114 region, we remain in the bearish mode! Early Monday moves are usually fake, so if we get a Monday rally within projected wave »c«, then this would be a perfect three-wave corrective rise that can be easily covered in the next days, when we expect another sell-off! Trade well! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
SPX: Weakest Technical Support = Bear Downtrend RiskOf the 3 big stock market indexes, the S&P500 or SPX is supported currently with the weakest technical support. This is NOT a fundamental support level. IF there is sudden panic due to some catalyst, and there are many potential catalysts waiting in the wings, this support can easily be moved through. A breakdown of this support level brings the risk for the end of the trading range bear market we've had so far and the start of a bear market downtrend.
SP:SPX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
PURELY TECHNICAL LONG SWING USD/MXNHey everybody so I am a scalper mostly but since finding how easy it is to share analysis with Tradingview I figured Id just post my ideas since I am analyzing them anyways .. So, here is a decent risk to reward swing setup for USD/MXN .. Friday we had a pretty decent selloff .. The daily candle closed with a huge rejection wick off that daily trendline .. I will be seeking long opportunities to reach the weekly trendline resistance.. Enjoy and take at your own risk ... :)
Long
by subliminal_architect
AUDNZD: Trade Update / Risk LessonWhats up guys? This idea is correlated to the one linked below. The difference between those two is the two yellow boxes. In the first i counted the first level as yellow box wrong and so the trade made another move down. I just wanted to give my follow traders a quick update about how the idea now looks with the correct two yellow consolidation boxes. We do not expect price to rise before another move to the downside. And yes we are still in the trade, which is linked below. Remember using always something between 1-2 percent risk keeps you long term in the game and also protects you from these mistakes. I am only 0.5 percent in drawdown from this trade!
Long
by darian_fx
Risk Management On Harrowing TradeThis BTC trade is a little harrowing, I am long from around 4300 with small size. It dumped out with large red volume but green buyers have stepped back in and may produce a reversal. I may have just been too early on the trade rather than wrong outright. I originally had the downward movement marked as an ABC correction but would have done better to wait for a full 5 wave impulse with the end of the impulse marked by large green buying pressure volume. In any case I am not going to average down even though it is still in my buying area because I am not at all sure that the selling volume is dried up. The big red vol bar on the 24th makes it hard to justify that the reversal is in place. Regarding managing risk, I have found that scratching trades like this when they come back to break even is really a bad idea and hurts overall robustness. It is much better to only begin tightening the stop AFTER AND ONLY AFTER the trade is somewhat profitable. I am using the red linear regression line with wide settings for stop tightening if the trade becomes profitable. The point being that it's really important to achieve full target hits rather than getting taking out by too tight a stop. Max risk is at 3428 and if it doesn't get stopped there it will probably take a week or more before I can tighten the stop.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
Psychological trading hack #0002 (educational)In this screencast I share some of my own personal journey which I suspect may resound with many a struggling trader out there. This post is in keeping with the house rules on text-based analyses, and psychological self-analysis is the biggest most important aspect of trading. It is clearly in the category of 'Beyond Technical Analysis' I had been thinking for many days where to start with this journey. This morning I hit on it. It is about me! Not about charts and methods. So that's where I start. I share this for the benefit of all traders and especially new traders. I'm not saying I am right about everybody. I only know about my own journey and I think there may be some 'psychological hacks' in all this, to curtailing much suffering among other traders. Everybody knows that discipline in trading is required, and that is primarily a psychological issue. Proven methodologies for profitability just do not work for a majority of people. So the big factor is 'the people' and what leads them to make bad decisions in trading. I've been tackling it. Join me on the journey. This could be (though not necessarily) the most important journey of all.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Crude oil to see recovery from current levels!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - 2 daily Timeframe - 1 - 2 Months Actions on - A – Activating Event Commodity finds Support @ current levels . Commodity to move towards the @60 level, B – Beliefs Crude Oil needs to consolidate before I look at going long. I will stay on the sidelines until then. Will keep u posted :) FX_IDC:USDWTI Happy trading. Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by SMPTrader
Option Selling Opportunities So Good They're ScaryNov 1. Option Selling Opportunities So Good They're Scary Nov 14. Your account was caught in an extraordinary bout of volatility in the energy markets. In particular, natural gas prices experienced a parabolic move over the past 3 trading sessions... The event resulted in a catastrophic loss to the portfolio. Your account now likely not only has a zero balance - the balance is likely slightly debit. And to think that I got a sell signal the 8 november as I was testing a 4 hour RSI divergence alert system lately (gave up on that already :D), good thing I avoided this. Just looked bad. Now I dare anyone to tell me again my bias causes me to miss out, and I would make alot more money if I was not so biased against every thing, go ahead, I dare you. Tell that to the people that received margin calls and letters telling them they lost all of their money. I bet their TA told them they were very strong resistances. “A combination of late summer heat, nuclear outages, hurricane disruptions, pipeline delays and now a burst of early cold weather has left inventories at critically low levels just as the winter begins,” Goldman Sachs wrote. Volumes of benchmark Henry Hub natural gas futures on the Nymex were a record 1.6 contracts on Wednesday, more than four times the average. The advent of shale production in the past decade subdued the market, however. Some traders made money consistently betting against the market as prices declined. Some traders have maintained short, or bearish, positions in gas and long, or bullish, positions in crude oil and “the unwinding of positions in one of these two commodities could potentially have triggered the opposite effect on the other commodity,” Citigroup said. The market action was so ferocious that an exchange traded note enabling retail investors to place leveraged bets on lower natural gas prices was more heavily traded than the most popular exchange-traded fund linked to US stocks. Copying quotes from the financial times. I guess idiotic retail traders assaulted this commodity and did their usual dumb troll TA thing and they were so many of them that this happened... I guess... Lmao. I just love looking at all these "very very strong resistances" and oscillators giving sell signals. Of course there are also those that followed the move and made money... alot also got destroyed when it dropped 20% right after ^.^ Lmao watching screenshots of these options traders that lost everything thought. They cannot criticize me for being careful and missing out now that they cannot even afford the internet :smart:. Even those that made money are probably just gambling at that point and got lucky this time but will end up in the same boat as the losers. Your TA looks really good when a pipeline explodes and reserves are at their lowest in 15 years. Oh ooof course, people are not going to want gas they are just going to freeze to death out of respect for "very strong resistances" and some troll indicators that get sold to newbs and never worked. Bi-bi-bi-bi...BITCONNECT!!! HAHAHAHAHA. I loooooooooooove BIIIIIIIIIIITCONNECT. BITCONNECT! These greedy people that are not careful, they keep getting rekt. Very important lesson here.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MrRenev