Get started

Risk!!!

!!! DJI 1937 DO YOU BELIEVE IN COINCIDENCES ??? DEJA VU ???In the late 1937 after the great depression huge money printing have happened in order to stimulate the economy... Many successful investors and portfolio managers have mentioned that we have been in the last cycle of the business cycle ! According to one of the most successful money managers Ray Dalio we have been in a similar perdion as the late 30s period. After looking at charts it turned out that we are in TOO SIMILAR situation. Sell off have occurred after a huge rally that sell of has formed bearish cypher pattern. RSI have been showing overbought condition with bearish divergence. The bull trap has occurred after that with new hopes new believes for the bright future... But all of a sudden bad things start to happen and they GRIND ON slowly but surely. Just thinking about it... Hopefully there is some more room to go but all of that money printed all of that huge debt, slowing economic growth, trade tensions negative bond yields, few EU economies close to a recession it seems to me that thing might become really really BAD. Gold has appreciated significantly in the last 4 months... Be prepared. GOOD LUCK
DJ:DJI
by TG_Advisory
3
Signs of homemade inflation a few months away...For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. => Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade) ...assuming we can clear risks on the US & China trade front then the stage looks set for a test as low as 1225 before any further meaningful upside ... would expect this to begin happening with an earnings recession towards Q3/Q4 this year. Good luck to those on the sell side here, we are being aggressive with the trigger in attempt to outsmart the beginning of a very large leg ahead of inflation data next week from the US.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
Leveraged Loans | Corporate Risk Premium Crisis?Many of you may not be familiar with leveraged loans and the ETFs that have become available to investors through funds over the last few years, but they are important to understand in order to have an edge over the rest of the markets these days - whether that's traditional equities, commodities, derivatives or crypto - as wealth preservation will be a big theme during 2019/2020. Investors have been driven into leveraged loans and related products sharply since the Financial Crisis as a result of record low interest rates in developed markets caused by experimental monetary policy; investors have been desperate for yield! And so we have seen very low risk premium spreads between "risky" junk paper and "risk free" treasury paper as a result of distortions in the marketplace. This spread is currently in the single digits, but during the Financial Crisis - when credit flow started to freeze - the spread skyrocketed into the 40 point range! Treasuries have only room to go lower in the event of a credit crisis and so one can imagine that risky corporate paper will be the victim of such a scenario as companies no longer get access to cheap credit. This will put huge pressure on corporate yields, resulting in defaults and deeply discounted paper. FYI: The Quantity Theory of Credit is my theoretical and empirical inclination. Anyway, keep an eye on leveraged loans and the ETF carrying them. Due to the way these ETFs are held by funds they also carry significant redemption risks, which can cause a run on the funds that issue them and cause funds to panic sell to meet redemption requests from investors. I'm sure there are a few strategies one could devise to take advantage of such a scenario ;)
AMEX:BKLN
by Trader6127
don't worry about your losses what happens if you have a 1:1.5 risk reward ratio(means if you win you won 1/5% of your balance if you lose you lost1% of your balance) and doing 2 trade via any strategy that you prefer in a day (means your open trades should not be more than 2 at the same time). at the end of the month, you do 40 trades so we see below what happens(20 days * 2 trades = 40 trade in a month): ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- if you win 40 trades and lost no trades you make 60% in a month (40*1/5)-(0*1)=60-0=60% if you win 35 trades and lost 5 trades you make 47/5% in a month (35*1/5)-(5*1)=52/5-5=47/5% if you win 30 trades and lost 10 trades you make 35% in a month (30*1/5)-(10*1)=45-10=35% if you win 25 trades and lost 15 trades you make 22/5% in a month (25*1/5)-(15*1)=37/5-15=22/5% if you win 20 trades and lost 20 trades you make 10% in a month (20*1/5)-(20*1)=30-20=10% if you win 15 trades and lost 25 trades you miss -2/5% in a month (15*1/5)-(25*1)=22/5-25=-2.5% if you win 10 trades and lost 30 trades you miss -15% in a month (better change your strategy) (10*1/5)-(30*1)=15-30=-15% if you win 5 trades and lost 35 trades you miss -27/5% in a month (better change your strategy) (5*1/5)-(35*1)=7/5-35=-27/5% if you win no trades and lost 40 trades you miss -40% in a month (better change your strategy) (0*1/5)-(40*1)=0-40=-40% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now we average results: (60+47/5+35+22/5+10-2/5-15-27/5-40)/9=10% On average you can make 10% a month At the first sight you may tell yourself how I am going to be rich with only 10% monthly so please attention to below and see what happens if you start with 5000$ 1) 5000*1/10=5500$ 2) 5500*1/10=6050$ 3) 6050*1/10=6655$ 4) 6655*1.10=7320$ 5) 7320*1.10=8052$ - - 12) 15,692$ - - 24) 49,248$ - - 36) 154,563 - - 48) 485,086$ - 56) 1,039,825$ Congratulations!!! Now you are a millionaire after about 4/5 years of hardworking patience and discipline This why we should not be afraid of our losses GOOD LUCK Abolfazl Abedi
Education
by abolfazlabedi
Bitcoin update, Bull flag The last 24 hours have been quite interesting and informative. We saw a nice breakout from the bullfrog on lower timeframes but as many times seen on bitcoin a clear rejection from the top and a dump back to where we started. I think we can go to 4250$ today if the support don't break if the support breaks then we can go all down to 3800$. If BTC goes up i will see how BTC reacts and take a short position on 4210 - 4240. I trade on Bitmex guys let me know what are your thougts :) Your @dk.kern
BITMEX:XBT
by DavidKern
OIL UKOIL BCOUSDPlease find information in the chart bubbles. good luck and have fun trading! always focus on money management. you can take a lot of 1% losses but your account can only handle a view big losses, right? when you lose 10% e.g. 1000$ of your 10k account then you have 9000 left. the next 10% risk trade is only 900$, so the potential winning gets smaller, too. after that 2nd one being stopped out again you have some 8100$ left! risking again 10% of that is 810$ risk for the 3rd trade. now this one needs to be more than -more- than a 1:2 winner to get you back to breakeven. if lost you have some 7300$ left. with again risking 10% (730$) in the 4th trade this one need to be a 1 : 3.6 winner to get you close to breakeven... hope you see the point. in addition: think of your psychology. what does it do to your trading style when you started with 10000$ account and you only have 5000$ left? are you panicking? are you still trading your proven strategy? are you averthinking things and switching markets or strategies or rules? a good chance you will do stupid tings like that, right? ;)
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by ernstschwarz
2
YEN on a knife's edge. Is the big one around the corner?The global carry trade makes the JPY a good indicator of risk sentiment. When things start to go south you'll see the global carry trade unwind as traders sell USD and buy JPY. Looking at the chart you can see that risk off environments are often punctuated by spikes lower in USD/JPY as there were lately in Oct and Nov. However zooming out and looking at a longer timeframe shows us that the YEN is finely balanced closing right on it's trend line. While I expect it to move lower in the long term as the equity bear market gains steam, for the moment it hasn't broken out and if it can manage to hold and even rally from here the implications would be short term positive for equities.
Short
by The_Pain_Trade