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Risk!!!

YEN on a knife's edge. Is the big one around the corner?The global carry trade makes the JPY a good indicator of risk sentiment. When things start to go south you'll see the global carry trade unwind as traders sell USD and buy JPY. Looking at the chart you can see that risk off environments are often punctuated by spikes lower in USD/JPY as there were lately in Oct and Nov. However zooming out and looking at a longer timeframe shows us that the YEN is finely balanced closing right on it's trend line. While I expect it to move lower in the long term as the equity bear market gains steam, for the moment it hasn't broken out and if it can manage to hold and even rally from here the implications would be short term positive for equities.
Short
by The_Pain_Trade
What is the probability of a pullback? Cut your losses smartlyIf people expect an Inverted Head & Shoulders, chances could be very meager in terms of probability. What is the % of chance that we go back to 12xxx? How much time would it take? What would be the bullish triggers, if any? The markets took quite a bit of time and strength to break through the support I've drawn around 11183. If you were long above any support lines and didn't cut, unless you are playing huge bets and that everything is still going according to your original plan, then you should consider cutting quickly any losses from long positions above the support that could become a resistance. Accept the losses, and go again with the trend afresh. You don't want that burden. If anyone tells me that the current daily trend is bullish, then I should reasses my understanding of a bullish trend. Be nimble in cutting losses when it clearly goes against you. There's a lot of readings about risk and money management that are available. Don't let cognitive biases overwhelm you.
FX:GER30
by UnknownUnicorn569872
Gold Projections Using Elliot Wave TheoryHello Traders Here I present to you my wave count on Gold. Gold has been on a steady rise since August completing a full impulse wave cycle and now starting a corrective wave cycle. The last NFP figure falling short at 155K instead of the forecast at 198K alongside with falling wage growth at 0.2% gave way to further upside for Gold. Also the end of the interest rate hike cycle is fueling a more risk averse market sentiment that is pushing Gold prices to an overbought RSI territory. The overbought indication is also reflected on the past two days price action with the bullish momentum stalling @1251.00 price point. In this particular setup I am looking to position short at the corrective wave at point B @1240.00 and trade the last wave until we reach point C @1220 that falls on the prevailing trend line. Alternatively we can position around @1220 level to get an entry in case price finds support on said trend line and ride the next uptrend impulse on the long side. Trade safe, Trade well.
TVC:GOLDShort
by fromzerotospyro
EW ANALYSIS: Risk-Off Sentiment Could Continue; NIKKEI+USDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about Risk-Off mode over NIKKEI225 and USDJPY, where we see a tight positive correlation! As you can see, the main driver for the USDJPY sell-off was NIKKEI225, which may continue later this week, since we have seen an impulsive five-wave decline. In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows and we can already see an a-b-c correction in progress, where wave »c« is still missing, so be aware of a Monday rally towards projected resistance areas, from where we may see another sell-off in the stock market and consequently also in the USDJPY! That said, in the NIKKEI225 futures chart, we are tracking a three-wave a-b-c corection, where 22000 resistance area can be tested, before we may see a sell-off continuation! So, as long as it's trading below 22780 highs, we will remain bearish! If we respect correlations, then it's similar with USDJPY, in which we think that 113 area, specifically 113.25 – 113.35 resistance area can be retested before another sell-off, so while it's trading beneath 114 region, we remain in the bearish mode! Early Monday moves are usually fake, so if we get a Monday rally within projected wave »c«, then this would be a perfect three-wave corrective rise that can be easily covered in the next days, when we expect another sell-off! Trade well! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
SPX: Weakest Technical Support = Bear Downtrend RiskOf the 3 big stock market indexes, the S&P500 or SPX is supported currently with the weakest technical support. This is NOT a fundamental support level. IF there is sudden panic due to some catalyst, and there are many potential catalysts waiting in the wings, this support can easily be moved through. A breakdown of this support level brings the risk for the end of the trading range bear market we've had so far and the start of a bear market downtrend.
SP:SPX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
PURELY TECHNICAL LONG SWING USD/MXNHey everybody so I am a scalper mostly but since finding how easy it is to share analysis with Tradingview I figured Id just post my ideas since I am analyzing them anyways .. So, here is a decent risk to reward swing setup for USD/MXN .. Friday we had a pretty decent selloff .. The daily candle closed with a huge rejection wick off that daily trendline .. I will be seeking long opportunities to reach the weekly trendline resistance.. Enjoy and take at your own risk ... :)
Long
by subliminal_architect
AUDNZD: Trade Update / Risk LessonWhats up guys? This idea is correlated to the one linked below. The difference between those two is the two yellow boxes. In the first i counted the first level as yellow box wrong and so the trade made another move down. I just wanted to give my follow traders a quick update about how the idea now looks with the correct two yellow consolidation boxes. We do not expect price to rise before another move to the downside. And yes we are still in the trade, which is linked below. Remember using always something between 1-2 percent risk keeps you long term in the game and also protects you from these mistakes. I am only 0.5 percent in drawdown from this trade!
Long
by darian_fx
Risk Management On Harrowing TradeThis BTC trade is a little harrowing, I am long from around 4300 with small size. It dumped out with large red volume but green buyers have stepped back in and may produce a reversal. I may have just been too early on the trade rather than wrong outright. I originally had the downward movement marked as an ABC correction but would have done better to wait for a full 5 wave impulse with the end of the impulse marked by large green buying pressure volume. In any case I am not going to average down even though it is still in my buying area because I am not at all sure that the selling volume is dried up. The big red vol bar on the 24th makes it hard to justify that the reversal is in place. Regarding managing risk, I have found that scratching trades like this when they come back to break even is really a bad idea and hurts overall robustness. It is much better to only begin tightening the stop AFTER AND ONLY AFTER the trade is somewhat profitable. I am using the red linear regression line with wide settings for stop tightening if the trade becomes profitable. The point being that it's really important to achieve full target hits rather than getting taking out by too tight a stop. Max risk is at 3428 and if it doesn't get stopped there it will probably take a week or more before I can tighten the stop.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
Psychological trading hack #0002 (educational)In this screencast I share some of my own personal journey which I suspect may resound with many a struggling trader out there. This post is in keeping with the house rules on text-based analyses, and psychological self-analysis is the biggest most important aspect of trading. It is clearly in the category of 'Beyond Technical Analysis' I had been thinking for many days where to start with this journey. This morning I hit on it. It is about me! Not about charts and methods. So that's where I start. I share this for the benefit of all traders and especially new traders. I'm not saying I am right about everybody. I only know about my own journey and I think there may be some 'psychological hacks' in all this, to curtailing much suffering among other traders. Everybody knows that discipline in trading is required, and that is primarily a psychological issue. Proven methodologies for profitability just do not work for a majority of people. So the big factor is 'the people' and what leads them to make bad decisions in trading. I've been tackling it. Join me on the journey. This could be (though not necessarily) the most important journey of all.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Crude oil to see recovery from current levels!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - 2 daily Timeframe - 1 - 2 Months Actions on - A – Activating Event Commodity finds Support @ current levels . Commodity to move towards the @60 level, B – Beliefs Crude Oil needs to consolidate before I look at going long. I will stay on the sidelines until then. Will keep u posted :) FX_IDC:USDWTI Happy trading. Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by SMPTrader
Option Selling Opportunities So Good They're ScaryNov 1. Option Selling Opportunities So Good They're Scary Nov 14. Your account was caught in an extraordinary bout of volatility in the energy markets. In particular, natural gas prices experienced a parabolic move over the past 3 trading sessions... The event resulted in a catastrophic loss to the portfolio. Your account now likely not only has a zero balance - the balance is likely slightly debit. And to think that I got a sell signal the 8 november as I was testing a 4 hour RSI divergence alert system lately (gave up on that already :D), good thing I avoided this. Just looked bad. Now I dare anyone to tell me again my bias causes me to miss out, and I would make alot more money if I was not so biased against every thing, go ahead, I dare you. Tell that to the people that received margin calls and letters telling them they lost all of their money. I bet their TA told them they were very strong resistances. “A combination of late summer heat, nuclear outages, hurricane disruptions, pipeline delays and now a burst of early cold weather has left inventories at critically low levels just as the winter begins,” Goldman Sachs wrote. Volumes of benchmark Henry Hub natural gas futures on the Nymex were a record 1.6 contracts on Wednesday, more than four times the average. The advent of shale production in the past decade subdued the market, however. Some traders made money consistently betting against the market as prices declined. Some traders have maintained short, or bearish, positions in gas and long, or bullish, positions in crude oil and “the unwinding of positions in one of these two commodities could potentially have triggered the opposite effect on the other commodity,” Citigroup said. The market action was so ferocious that an exchange traded note enabling retail investors to place leveraged bets on lower natural gas prices was more heavily traded than the most popular exchange-traded fund linked to US stocks. Copying quotes from the financial times. I guess idiotic retail traders assaulted this commodity and did their usual dumb troll TA thing and they were so many of them that this happened... I guess... Lmao. I just love looking at all these "very very strong resistances" and oscillators giving sell signals. Of course there are also those that followed the move and made money... alot also got destroyed when it dropped 20% right after ^.^ Lmao watching screenshots of these options traders that lost everything thought. They cannot criticize me for being careful and missing out now that they cannot even afford the internet :smart:. Even those that made money are probably just gambling at that point and got lucky this time but will end up in the same boat as the losers. Your TA looks really good when a pipeline explodes and reserves are at their lowest in 15 years. Oh ooof course, people are not going to want gas they are just going to freeze to death out of respect for "very strong resistances" and some troll indicators that get sold to newbs and never worked. Bi-bi-bi-bi...BITCONNECT!!! HAHAHAHAHA. I loooooooooooove BIIIIIIIIIIITCONNECT. BITCONNECT! These greedy people that are not careful, they keep getting rekt. Very important lesson here.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MrRenev
"The Great Rotation"-Harsh but a Garden Variety CorrectionLooking back historically at previous corrections throughout the broad market indices. We are looking at a W pattern with Bollinger bands. You can see the previous corrections from Gov't shutdown in 2011, Oil rout of 2015-2016, and now as I call the "Great Rotation". Earnings were going to be the grand escalator to take out new high's in the S&P. Unfortunately, many of the mega-cap stocks were already priced for perfection and anything less than a stellar quarter and amazing guidance was going to lead as a unraveling of many of these heavy weights. It seems that even the retailers have been a bit tepid even though many experts are saying that the US consumer is as strong as its ever been. My case that we are not going into a full bear market, not quite yet at least, interest rates have not softened, Gold has not pick it up (off of a fear trade), and the volatility Index (VXX) has stalled for the 2nd time a the 40 mark, a large technical resistance for the VXX. Then what turns the market? My theory is that all the economic data that we have been receiving lately and the lack of any threat of major inflation, I feel the Fed will pause in December and kick the can down to Jan-Feb of 2019 to look at raising rates. I think that will be the catalyst to ensure that our markets still have a relatively accommodating Fed. (Check out Jim Grant's CNBC Interview from 11/20/2018). Take this opportunity do your research and find values in equities that have been oversold and keep your stops tight. Happy Trading & Happy Thanksgiving! -KG
SP:SPXLong
by KryptonicG
1
Why I do not do risk management and never will.First, the whole concept is idiotic. If I was an educator and someone came to me and asked about "risk management" "how much time should I spend on it" "what risk management should I have", I'd just slap them :D Here is your risk management plan "don't be an idiot" now go play. Here is what (correct...) trading is: via information gathering (patterns that repeat themselves + news + experience/instinct), you choose to go long or short on a currency/stock/crypto/etc. You have a vague idea of the minimum winrate to expect how much $$$ you are putting on the table and how much you are going to get out of this (can't really know these numbers exactly just have a vague idea I think backtesting the "worse case scenario" and this giving at least 50/50 is what we need, as far as I know there are not really any mechanical systems that work out there out of quant funds that gather terabytes of data on a daily... and even them don't really know for sure and sometimes lose... if there was ... there wouldn't be for long idk I think we'd know about it). You also consider the best and worse case scenarios. I see no "risk management" part of trading. The whole thing is risk x to z money with a to b probability to make t to v money with c to d probability. How is there a "risk management" facet? Is there a "swimming" part I should not ignore in the front crawl? Lol wut? "Oh ye it's not all about moving your arms in the front crawl you know, there is also a swimming part". "I am not the best trader but I am really good at risk management" <=== On par with "dot com stocks can keep going up forever because the internet allows for infinite productivity it's so abstract I am so smart (not) muuuh bags" and "Bitcoin will go to 5 million $ maths and economic laws do not apply to this new thing" on the level of stupidity. Just like the little messages we keep seing "careful trading carries a high level of risk". Anyone that needs this message is too stupid to trade. So anyway, what this guy said about pigs it is true. You keep risking half a percent or whatever, you will grow, but you'll wait your whole life to get from 5000$ to millionaire. At some point, you have been trading for a while and you found a gem, or you took hundreds of trades from the same strategy and you know you are good enough to get an 80% winrate (because there is no mecanical system afaik and you are going to have to be a discretionary trader to succeed), you know you can handle some big risk (poker player for example, or just don't care about money) you want to take a big leap, you are going to have to risk big. Why do alot of people become successful but never make it really big? They took the leap forward on a few thousands, but then they stopped once they got to big amounts because not warriors but little crying chihuahuas with tiny balls and just stay at that level or start teaching to make more (the 10% that are not straight up lying scammers), and ye of course the little chihuahas that get into teaching all keep repeating how you should not risk more than 1%. All the famous billionaires Ray Dalio, George Soros, Warren Buffet, they all risked big and took big losses. Ray Dalio even had it so bad, he fired every one from his fund until only 1 person was left in it: himself :D, he had to ask his father for money haha so he might have took it a little too far. Oh quite interestingly, the big players that took huge losses took the biggest losses on short position. Sure they're very profitable and all, but doesn't mean you should go crazy either... When you short, you must be prepared for spikes of 200%, it has happened in the past (does not apply to currencies they're a little different), whereas long you cannot lose more than 100%. My belief is: - never ever go crazy on shorts, no matter what. - do not ever go big ever until you took hundreds of trades (or less if you position trade...) and are seasoned, really know what you are doing, not "I think because I backtested this" - having theorical experience is not enough, unless you are a supercomputer. You must have ACTUALLY traded for a while, with real money. - when you are totally confident, if you want to accelerate that growth a little, besides improving and doing more research of course, consider upping your risk, move it from 0.5% to 3%, then 5%. going from 0.5% risk to 5% for a while means an exponential explosive difference, 20 wins with 0.5% risk equals 10% growth, with 5% risk it equals way more than 10 times more, it equals 165% returns. etc. - Obviously always consider the worse case scenario... Anyone that says "it never can" should be gunned down on sight (not an actual call to violence), but seriously they are too stupid to trade. - Be like a spider. Be very very very patient, for years. But when the time to strike comes, just go for it. - Make sure you can handle the maximum possible loss (which should be capped if you never go big on shorts). For me as long as I have enough left to live and bounce back, I don't care about big risks, anything over what I stricly need to survive is bonus money menat for playing. If you do not have this mentality, do not risk that much. - Most people that get into this game as fresh noobs directly want to start as countertrend traders AND risk big asap too. This is how they all get destroyed and we get these terrible stats, or become legends in 5% cases, and then get destroyed later on because they actually just got lucky. Then they either quit, or start risking very small, the exact opposite of what I think every one should be doing: never quit. Start very small, and when you have enough experience and are at the absolute top of your game, with no distractions, then you up the risk give that account a big boost. *** This is not financial advice, if you go risk everything on 1 bet and end up broke, not my problem. Now go play!
NASDAQ:IXICEducation
by MrRenev
Could Ethereum bring back the Crypto Markets?As usual I have no crystal ball. Overnight and into this morning, I've been watching the order-book action on Coinbase . What was striking was the amount of volume being exchanged on Ethereum compared to BTC. In essence BTC volume appeared to be quieter than Ethereum. I'm talking about he 'buckets' of trades - not the actual amounts of money. See my 44 second clip of this morning (linked not sure it will show). It sort of makes sense cuz Ethereum is far cheaper than BTC if you wanna get throw your money in now. Price is near the bottom and that's attractive for your neighbour next door. One thing has been proven in all markets is that when all hope is gone, that's often a time when it's best to buy (go long) - a t your own risk of course . I'm long on BTC and ETHUSD with acceptable stop-losses on the 1h time frame. This is not an invitation for others to follow. Disclaimers : The representations herein are indicative, not predictive and do not imply any past, present or future performance of the individual making the representation. Under no circumstances does any graphical or other representation imply, encourage or recommend the buying or selling of securities, or the making of any kind of investment or trade. No guarantee of accuracy is provided for reported facts. No insight into practical aspects of trading or investment is provided. There are no cloaked, or implied meanings or expectations to be received. Gambling in financial markets is strongly discouraged . Trading or investing in securities, crytpocurrencies or tokens of any kind carries serious and/or catastrophic financial risks. Those who lack the knowledge, skill and experience in those markets should avoid taking those risks. You are responsible for your own due diligence. Should you take financial risk by acting on this representation or any interpretation of it, you do so entirely at your own risk. This declaration is consistent with UK and European law on representations, implied contracts and the common law in relation to negligence.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by Captain_Walker
BENEFITS AND RISKS OF TRADING 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY BENEFITS AND RISKS OF TRADING 101 a) Market Action Market Action is determined as the summary of data showing the trading activities in the market, which determines the differentiation between the price of the currency on which profit or loss can be generated. The rate of change in profit and loss is provided in Market action summary. This can enable the investors to determine which FOREX they should sell or buy in the market. b) Liquidity 1. Market liquidity determines the extent to which a market, it can be a real estate or a trading market, which can allow selling and buying of assets at stable prices. In the trading market, the liquidity of securities is considered as ease of selling and buying the securities without affecting the price of the assets. 2. While trading in a FOREX market with a high volume, the bid price offered by a buyer on each share and the asking price on which seller is willing to sell shares, if based on the same or close amounts than the market highly liquid. 3. The difference between the prices is considered as the spread. The market liquidity usually affects when the difference or spread between the ask prices and bid prices increase. c) Leverage Traders determine margin and leveraging as the two important aspects of leveraging. The loan provided by a broker is considered as a margin, which enables traders in leveraging the securities and funds through the account to accomplish large trade activities. However, it is necessary to open and get an approval on a margin account. The FOREX market usually uses 2:1 leverage, this means that investor can buy almost double of the amount they hold in their trading account. This means that if the investor has $50,000 then they can purchase $100,000 of currency in case their trading account leverage is 2:1. d) Economic risks Economic risk arises due to the changes in macro economic conditions. These risks are much capable that they can introduce changes in investments of shareholders and bondholders in the market. These changes can be the result of changes in government regulation, exchange rates, and political stability. International investment carries more investment risk as compared to domestic investment. The main reason that economic risk can adversely affect the corporate investments is due to the fact that economic risks can violate the economic sustainability. Happy trading :)
BEducation
by SMPTrader
2