🧊The Iceberg Illusion In TradingThe iceberg illusion in trading refers to the perception gap between what people think trading is and what it actually means. Many people see trading as a simple way to make quick profits and accumulate wealth, with the idea that all one has to do is buy low and sell high. However, the reality is far more complex. Under the surface of what appears to be a straightforward process lies a world of risk, stress, and uncertainty. Trading is not just about making money, it requires discipline, patience, and a deep understanding of the markets. Those who don't understand the true nature of trading may face financial loss, depression and failure, much like the hidden dangers beneath the surface of an iceberg. Success in trading often requires much more than just a basic understanding of market trends and patterns, and those who dive in without being fully prepared may face dire consequences.
🔷 Above the Iceberg
Above the iceberg, people often see the glamorous and attractive side of trading, characterized by success, wealth, and financial independence. They imagine traders as confident and knowledgeable individuals, making smart decisions and reaping the rewards of their investments. The image of traders making large profits in a short amount of time is one that is often perpetuated by media and popular culture. People often see the stock market as a fast-paced, exciting place where opportunities for financial gain are abundant, and the idea of being able to control one's financial future through trading is alluring. This perception of trading often creates a rosy and idealized image of what it entails, leading many to believe that success in the markets is easy to achieve.
🔶 Bellow the Iceberg
Below the iceberg, lies the reality of the challenges and difficulties that traders face on a daily basis. There are many hidden risks and uncertainties that are not immediately apparent to those who are new to the world of trading. Some of the things that people don't know that lie beneath the surface of the iceberg include:
🔸 Market volatility:
The stock market is a highly volatile environment, and prices can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably. This can make it difficult for traders to manage their positions and minimize their losses.
🔸 Emotional stress:
Trading can be a highly emotional experience, and the pressure to make the right decisions can be immense. Many traders struggle with anxiety, fear, and depression, particularly when faced with losing trades.
🔸 Lack of understanding:
The stock market is complex, and it can be difficult for traders to understand all of the factors that influence market trends and prices. This can lead to costly mistakes and an increased risk of financial loss.
🔸 Competition:
The stock market is a highly competitive environment, and traders must be able to keep up with fast-moving markets and make quick decisions based on complex data and information.
🔸 Long-term success:
Many traders are focused on short-term profits and may not consider the long-term impact of their trading decisions. Achieving lasting success in the markets requires a well-thought-out strategy and a strong understanding of the markets and the risks involved.
🔸 Timing:
Successful trading often requires precise timing, as markets can change rapidly and prices can fluctuate. Traders must have a deep understanding of market trends and be able to make quick decisions to take advantage of opportunities.
🔸 Risk management:
Trading involves risk, and traders must be able to manage their positions and minimize their losses. This requires a well-planned and executed risk management strategy, including setting stop-losses and taking profits at appropriate levels.
🔸 Knowledge and experience:
Trading is not just about buying low and selling high. It requires a deep understanding of market trends, economics, and financial analysis, as well as years of experience to develop a successful trading strategy.
🔸 Discipline:
Trading requires discipline and patience, as well as the ability to stick to a well-thought-out strategy. Many traders make impulsive decisions based on emotions or market rumors, which can lead to financial losses.
Welcome to the hardest game in the world.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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Risk!!!
🧭ORDER TYPES IN TRADING🧭
⚙️STOP ORDER
This one is better to be explained with the examples:
These orders can be used for trading breakouts. If you thought the EUR/USD would rally further after a move above the 1.1500 level, you would place a buy stop for entry at 1.1501. As the market printed 1.1501, your buy stop would become a market order and be filled at the next best price available.
If you thought that the EUR/USD would continue moving down if it traded down through the 1.1200 level, you would place your sell stop for entry at the 1.1199 level. As the market printed 1.1199, your sell stop would become a market order and be filled at the next best price available.
⚙️MARKET ORDER
The market order is probably the most basic and often the first order type traders come across. Market orders are traded at market: if you want to get into the forex market immediately, you can trade a market order and be entered at the prevailing price.
⚙️LIMIT ORDER
This one is better to be explained with the examples:
If the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1294 and you thought it would trade down to 1.1200 before rallying, you would place your limit order to buy at 1.1200.
If the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.12939 level and you thought it would rally up to 1.1300 before selling off, you would place your limit order to sell 1.1300. When using a limit order, you will only be filled at the price you designated or better.
It’s important to remember that you should familiarize yourself with the platform you are working with before undertaking any form of trading activity. This can help minimize any impractical errors when executing or managing a trade.
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How To Have An Edge Over The Markets 📚Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Today I want to share a basic trading plan that you can follow to quantify your trading edge.
📌 Step 1:
First, start from the higher timeframes like Daily/Weekly to identify the current long-term trend. is it bullish, bearish or stuck inside a range?
If the price is sitting in the middle of nowhere, then it is a NO trade zone as price has 50% change to go either up or down. Thus no edge!
📚 Wait for the price to approach the lower bound or upper bound. Then proceed to Step 2
📌 Step 2:
No matter how strong a horizontal / non-horizontal support or resistance is, it can still be broken. Thus don't buy/sell blindly as price approaches a support/resistance.
Instead, zoom in to lower timeframes like H1 and M30 to look for setups.
🏹A basic approach would be to wait for a swing low to be broken downward around a resistance as a signal that the bears are taking over.
In parallel, wait for a swing high to be broken upward around a suppor t for the bulls to take over.
This would be the confirmation to enter the trade.
Of course, your second edge would be through risk management by targeting at least double than your indented risk.
But that's a topic for another post 😉
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Hope you find the content of this post useful 🙏
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Don't Blow Your Account | Learn How to Avoid Margin Call
Hey traders,
In this educational article, I will share with you 5 simple tips that will help you not to blow your trading.
1️⃣Always Use Stop Loss.
Let's start with the obvious - with the stop loss order.
Never ever trade without that. Before you open your trade, plan in advance its placement, stick to it once the position becomes active and never remove it.
2️⃣ Manage Your Position Sizes
I know that most of you are trading with a fixed lot. That is a bad habit. You should measure the lot size for each trading position you take. You should define in advance the risk percentage you are willing to lose per trade and calculate the lot sizes for your trades accordingly, then.
3️⃣Avoid Taking Too Many Positions
Remember that in trading, quantity does not imply quality. The more trades you take, the harder it is to manage each position individually. I would suggest opening maximum 5 trades per day and holding no more than 8 trades simultaneously.
4️⃣ Avoid Trading Too Many Markets
The wider is your watch list, the harder it is to focus on each individual element inside. Do not try to control as many markets as possible, instead, narrow your watch list and concentrate your attention on your favourite trading instruments.
5️⃣Remember About Volatility
The more volatile is the market that you trade, the harder it is to trade it and the bigger stop losses you need to keep your positions safe. Remember, that the volatility is the double-edged sword. It can bring substantial profits, but it can also blow your entire account in a blink of an eye.
Following these 5 simple rules, you will make your trading much safer. Study them and add them in your trading plan.
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GBP/JPY Short Opportunity: Capitalizing on Channel Structure andI have created this GBP/JPY short market idea due to the favorable technical setup observed in the chart. The currency pair has been trading within a downward channel and the previous high presents an ideal point of entry for a short position. The liquidity at the previous high, indicated by the volume profile, adds to the confluence of factors supporting this trade idea. The downward channel structure combined with the high liquidity at the previous high provides a strong basis for my decision to initiate a short position in the GBP/JPY market.
Please note that this is not investment advice and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Trading always carries risk and it's important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Thank you for your attention.
Key week reversal on the gold marketThe key week reversal and break of a 2-month uptrend all point to a deeper sell-off for the gold market short term.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Learn Risk to Reward Ratio | Forex Trading Basics
Hey traders,
Planning your every trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose.
In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits.
Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss.
From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips.
To calculate a risk to reward ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss:
R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2
In that particular example, risk to reward ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2.
Let's take another example.
This time, you decide to short USDJPY.
From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips with a potential loss of 150 pips.
Risk to reward ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5.
Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2.
Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative.
If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss.
If the ratio is less than 1, it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk.
Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance.
With R/R ratio = 0.5
2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
With R/R ratio = 1
1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses.
With R/R ratio = 2
1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades.
You need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
Trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking.
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I would lie to you that I am very special!This is an event that has spread all over the real and virtual space these days
I am better than you, more beautiful than you, smarter than you
But the reality is something else
But we know the truth!
You and I are human, we have our merits and demerits, we all lied, we were all kind, we were both good and bad!
we are equal ..
With this introduction, I wanted to get here that we in the financial markets are involved with an equal scale of types of risk
It means that if I am facing some risks, you are also facing almost the same risks!
So, of course, if we are profitable but have a low win rate, or vice versa, we have a high win rate, but we may not be profitable in the long term.
Accepting this risk is the most basic step of entering the market.
I think money management and risk management are the only keys to success
Our learnings about technical and fundamental analysis only play a role in reducing or increasing the risk of our trade!
Consider the Long-Term ChartI'm not going to call if the bottom is in or "not so fast" but just want to point out that we may only be halfway through a significant long-term downturn. It's concerning to me that RSI has broken significantly below 50 for the first time since the market recovered from the lows in early 2009. It's also concerning that price looks like it wants to retest the 50-mo. EMA after seemingly finding support a couple months ago. There's still considerable downside risk to the 200-mo. EMA where it has found long-term support in the past and it also happens to currently line up with a double bottom with the covid panic low from early 2020. Will it go down to the 200-mo EMA now? I'm not sure, I'm just saying that it could and you need to be prepared for that. I do know that if it continues to drop it would be a blood bath down at those levels and also a great long-term buying opportunity in my opinion (it could find support above, at or below the 200-mo EMA and an interesting level would be the top from the tech bubble around 2000 which lines up with a period of sideways consolidation from 2015-2016.
Volume of trade enterThe volume of trading in relation to your capital play an important role in emotional liabilities such greed and fear.
Greed let you execute large volume with high risk
Fear let you out of the market even when you have a clear setup and edge.
The low volume of trading plan play an important role in attenuation of greed and fear gradually.
With time you will find yourself a good player in the money game.
The low volume of your trading master your plan ,execution and psychology.
It help you how make money with low risk and high profit and how to catch the trend from the beginning.
Learn The HIDDEN Costs of Trading
In this educational article, we will discuss the hidden costs of trading.
1 - Brokers' Commissions
Trading commission is the brokers' fee for opening a trading position.
Usually, it is calculated based on the size of the trade.
Even though most of the traders believe that trading commissions are too low to even count them, the fact is that trading on consistent basis and opening a couple of trading positions weekly, the composite value of commissions may cut a substantial part of our profits.
2 - Education
Of course, most of the trading basics can be found on the Internet absolutely for free.
However, the more experienced you become, the harder it is to find the materials. So you usually should pay for the advanced training.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that the course/coaching that you purchase will improve your trading, quite often traders go through multiple courses/coaching programs before they become consistently profitable.
3 - Spreads
Spread is the difference between the sellers' and buyers' prices.
That difference must be compensated by a trader if one wished to open a trading position.
In highly liquid markets, the spreads are usually low and most of the traders ignore them.
However, being similar to commissions, spreads may cut the substantial part of the overall profits.
4 - Time
When you begin your trading journey, it is not possible to predict how much it will take to become a consistently profitable trader.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that you will become one.
One fact is true, you should spend a couple of years before you find a way to trade profitably, and as we know, the time is money. More time you sacrifice on trading, less time you have on something else.
5 - Swaps
Swap is the fee you pay for transferring a position overnight.
Swap is based on a difference between the interests rates of the currencies that are in a pair that you trade.
Occasionally, swaps can even be positive, and you can earn on holding such positions.
However, most of the time the swaps are negative and the longer you hold your trades, the more costly your trading becomes.
The brokers' commissions, spreads and swaps compose a substantial cost of our trading positions. Adding into the equation the expensive learning materials and time spent on practicing, trading becomes a very expensive game to play.
However, knowing in advance these hidden costs, the one can better prepare himself for a trading journey.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
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Our Trading ManifestoHello everyone! In this post we will present and explain our trading system.
Our trading system condensates everything we have learned from hard work, study and even harder lessons received in these years of trading. It is constantly evolving and updating, we are always ready to question some aspects of our system and research tools and strategies that can improve it.
We will distinguish and explain three different aspects of which the system is composed: Analysis, Execution and Research.
Analysis
The analytical part concerns all the tools and the strategies that we use to formulate an hypothesis on the direction of the market, and consequently develop a trading strategy.
A trading strategy is composed by:
-an Invalidation Level: a price level that, if crossed, proves our hypothesis wrong. This is the limit level at which stop losses can be set.
-a set of Entry Points/Levels: composed by price levels of chart points that according to our analysis can trigger the move that we are hypothesizing.
-a set of Target Points/Levels: composed by price levels of chart points where the move that we are hypothesizing can end.
Once a trading strategy is determined, it will be implemented in the executive part.
But on what is our analysis based?
Elliott Wave Theory, Pattern Trading and Sentiment Analysis.
We believe that the chart encodes all the information available. News and events are priced in the market instantaneously. The fundamentals are revealed simultaneously with the price action.
Any news or fundamental consideration is just one piece of the puzzle. Price is the synthesis of the result.
Price moves because of mass psychological dynamics inducing people to buy and sell. These dynamics are observable in the sentiment and in the fundamentals, and manifest themselves in chart patterns. The composition of chart patterns forms Elliott Waves structures.
We don't use this approach as a mix of independent tools, but in a holistic and comprehensive approach. We analyze the wave structure of the market starting from higher timeframes, assessing probabilities of different scenarios by analyzing chart patterns and using different tools related to the sentiment, such as Smart Money Indicator, Volume Profiles, Order Blocks, etc. We use the same approach in smaller timeframes to set the trading strategy (Entries, Targets and Invalidation Level).
Execution
The executive part of our trading system involves risk management, placing orders in the market, and managing active trades.
Once we have developed a trading strategy, we have a set of entries, a set of targets and an invalidation level. We have to use them to define a Trading Plan.
Here is the first rule of risk management: we can not lose more than 1.5% of the trading capital for each trading plan.
You don't have to depend on one trade. One trade should not be decisive. Trading must not be funny. This is the only way to decrease your biases and your emotional involvement.
So in a Trading Plan we decide how many trades to open, how much risk to allocate on each trade (NOT MORE THAN 1.5% TOTAL), at what price execute the trade, and where to set stop losses.
No stop loss can be set above the invalidation level. If prices reaches the invalidation level we are OUT. No matter if prices then follows the hypothesized direction, market will always provide other opportunities.
We also plan where to take profits at the pre-determined Target Levels.
Research
The research part of our system is our constantly updating and challenging our knowledge studying new tools, approaches, strategies. Knowledge is dynamic and always updating. You never stop learning.
We will post all our analysis and trades. Stay tuned and happy trading! :)
Letters to a Young TraderMy dear self,
I am here once again to remind you not to give up on your pursuit. Of course, it's a great one you have chosen and you need to put in the work required to get there.
Many before you have walked the same path you're on today and emerged successful and you can too.
There will come bad days and you'll question yourself about the path you've chosen. You'll need words of wisdom to guide you.
You'll find nothing more helpful than the Bible.
Make it your best friend and carry it with you at all times. It'll help you more than you'll realize.
In the beginning stages of your development, everything will seem impossible to do and I want you to know it's normal to feel that way right nom.
Give yourself time to grow and let experience teach you. You can't learn it in one day. You'll get it at the right time.
The greatest lesson you'll learn as a developing trader is when not to do something and that will separate you from the rest of them park.
Your focus right now shouldn't be everyday trading.
Just because you have time to sit in front of the charts doesn't mean you should trade.
Finally, you should have low expectations and allow time for your growth.
Trading is a numbers game and once you learn how to manipulate the numbers, you'll find out that you don't need to do a lot to be successful.
It's always a pleasure to write you.
Yours;
The Source Trader
✅TRADING ONE PAIR ONLY✅
“TO TRADE, OR NOT TO TRADE A SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR. THAT IS THE QUESTION…”
🧿MULTIPLE CURRENCY PAIRS
Easier to recover from losses on a given currency pair
Less likely to experience not seeing any setups for a whole day/week
Better understanding of pair correlations required
Can be more distracting
🧿SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR
No risk of trading correlated pairs
Better ability to focus
Feeling of understanding the price movements more
Can be a struggle to stick to ONE pair
Feeling of missing out when big moves happen on other pairs
✅HOW TO TRADE SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR:
🔲Step 1: Pick Your Currency Pair
▪️Is the pair active when I intend to trade it?
Even though the Foreign Exchange market is open 24/5, some pairs may be less traded at some specific times. Refer to "When To Trade Forex To Maximize Your Lifestyle & Profit?"
▪️Do you understand the currency pair you want to trade?
If you trade a pair with your country's currency, your chances of understanding how the price of the pair fluctuates might be higher. You will know what's going on and might even be able to know where the currency is heading (we are talking of fundamental analysis here...).
▪️Is the pair too or not enough volatile for you?
Don't be surprised to see big swings in GBP/JPY or GBP/NZD because those pairs are considered more volatile. Some traders like it because the profits usually come quickly, but stopped out trades can be more frequent.On the other hand, a pair like USD/CNY will have some inactivity periods and that might be frustrating.
🔲Step 2: Plan Your Trading
Good strategies are abstract and should work on any currency pair, however, since you have decided to trade one pair only, you have the privilege of tailoring you strategy to the particular pair, taking into the account it’s volatility, average likelihood of fakeouts vs breakouts, how trending it is on average etc..
🔲Step 3: Stay Consistent
Stick to the plan for at least a month. You might start the month feeling excited. You might get discouraged because you've taken too many or too few trades two weeks in.No one cares. Stick to your decision.At the end of the month, two things will happen:
1. You'll have built more confidence in your ability to remain consistent.
2. You'll have performed an experiment and will be able to say what works vs. what doesn't.
Those are two great things for someone who's looking to grow as a Forex trader.
Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️
✅Gimme a like and the Gods of Trading will favour you this week👍
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BZYR: Potential long term investment - with riskI've become interested in BZYR which trades only OTC at this time. Why is this OTC stock of high importance for long term investors? In order to set this out my post is broken into various parts:
1 - Introduction
2 - The historical battles
3 - Efficacy of a cancer treatment
4 - Summary
5 - The risk to reward for long term investors.
The above cannot possibly avoid referring to organisations and materials in the public domain - as matters of fact and truth before the courts.
Introduction:
The founder has discovered a treatment for cancers that cannot be treated by conventional treatments, that is better than anything out there at this time. The research has been in the public domain for the last 30-odd years. The discovery is called Antineoplastons - which is a combination of various peptides and other 'chemicals'.
Historical battles:
The research evidence for efficacy has not been faulted. The FDA (in the public domain) took the founder through 4 grand juries. The case failed at the Texas State Supreme Court, in an attempt to remove the founder's medical licence.
The whole story runs very deep back to the 1980s - but despite strenous efforts to shut down the treatment (and the founder), it persists to this day, through the endless legal battles. Staying within the 'House Rules' means that I am cautious not to breach.
In 1982 the FDA stated " never have and never will approve a new drug to an individual but only to a large pharmaceutical firm with unlimited finances ." Therefrom sprung one of the most severe fights in FDA history. dealings with the FDA commenced in 1983 at that point the FDA commenced a civil action to try to close the clinic and stop all patients from receiving the medicine before the judge in this case.
Before the judge in the 1983 court case had announced her ruling the FDA sends her a letter warning her in advance " if this court declines to grant the injunction sought by the government thus permitting continued manufacture and distribution of antineoplastons the government would then be obliged to pursue other less efficient remedies such as actions for seizure and condemnation of the drugs or criminal prosecution of individuals. "
Efficacy of cancer treatment with Antineoplastons:
Mainstream cancer research organisations will say " There is not enough reliable evidence to use it as a cancer treatment " or that the treatment is ' experimental '. But this is not true. If there has been an experiment, it was fully under the watch of the FDA, and the results are beyond belief for success.
Double-blind randomised controlled trials in Japan have proved the superior efficacy of the treatment (which is not 100% but far better than what exists).
Summary
Antineoplaston treatment has weathered all battles for over 30 years. It's not going away. It's survival suggests something novel and unique has been discovered. Why is this treatment surviving at all? Why all the battles against it? Those are matters for you to ponder.
The risk to reward for long term investors:
The weeky chart will show that BZYR (an OTC stock) is near rock bottom and possibly in an accummulation phase. Note carefully that OTC stocks are not on conventional exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ.
The potential growth over a 5 year period could be significant in relation to a fixed risk of loss which should be an affordable one, if more research confirms it's specific kind of efficacy. This could be the next 'Amazon' of the biomedical world.
As always I emphasise the risk - and I am unable to provide tips on how to manage that. Disclaimers apply.
Bitcoin Shorts With Targets based on riskThis is the case for shorters. Targets based on actual risk at the time.
Bitcoin has gone up to almost liquidate 3x positions that have sold the current bottom. There was not been a 5% drop until price has topped out. Shorters are in panic and praying for price to reach 17.5k to 18k again so they can exit their short.