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Risk!!!

What happens at each stage of the market cycle?This picture is of vital importance. It's something that you simply have to try to recognise when trading, whether you're multi asset, trading only crypto, FX, equities - it simply doesn't matter, since sentiment is indiscriminate and uncaring as to your asset class. In each section, we've got what is occurring at each stage. 1) Risk off. 2) The start of the crisis management 3) Risk on 4) Caution On the right hand side of each diagram shows what generally is bought during these periods, and how your portfolio *could* be constructed. And at the bottom, is what is generally sold off. What we always have to remember is this... 'How do we optimally construct our trade ideas/portfolio to make best use of the current market condition?' A trade that you think should come off under one market condition (especially if you're technicals focused) might not work, since the market context doesn't support the trade's success. Key to this is understand the beta of different asset classes to. Let's take FX. AUD, GBP, CAD and emerging market currencies are all high beta. Here's the equation to work out beta of say, EURUSD... Beta (EURUSD) = StdDev (EURUSD) / StdDev (market average) This implies that they move pretty heavily in line with risk sentiment and probably have outsized returns relative to the average. Countering this, EUR and JPY tend to be pretty low beta, predominantly due to their respective central bank policies. Being long AUD on a return to caution (as I believe we are in now, for example, on a technicals basis would probably be the incorrect thing to do. Priming yourself not necessarily to forecast, but to get to grips with where we are now and whether anything can change based on certain factors is absolutely vital. Thanks for reading, and let me know in the comments if you would like a full image of this!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by FinkPro
3
Visualizing Risk ManagementI would like to save people from getting burned so after 3.5 years of being in this space here is my advice: 1. It is easy to fall in love with an investment, especially when you believe it could make you rich. Have belief, but don't be blinded by it. Consider that you could be wrong, late, or even too early. 2. Price can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Getting chopped up in the range will dwindle your capital that can be very hard to recover. 3. If everyone knows it, the market will no longer follow that path. The moment you determine a certainty is the moment you're destined to learn some lesson. 4. Doing nothing is hard. It feels good to be all-in, but this pushes emotions to the brink for new investors that can't stop looking at the screens. Trading/investing can be as simple as drawing one horizontal line on a chart. Price goes above and you're in. Below and you're out. Numbers don't lie. Develop a plan and cut the emotion.
Education
by Bohrbtc
AudCad ready to sink further... Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
GJ to take a turn from here?Watch for turning here...not just for GJ but other crosses like AJ and Cadj Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
A resistance tough to overcome? GBPUSD might turn lower... Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
USD will push up higher? Still looking good for upside... Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
TVC:DXYLong
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Macro Perspective - TechnologyAn increasing level of concern is rising within the Bond, Equity and Real Estate Complexes or Markets. I prefer Complex as each "Market" has a number of entities using their control mechanisms. The Equity Complex has a number of headwinds approaching for Technology (NQ). Yields, specifically the 10Yr Treasury Note has been a reliable Instrument for an Inverse or Negative Correlation. 10Yr Yields rose Friday 4.6% In addition, we want to observe the Long End of the Yield Curve flattening - this is a warning sign, one which proceeds corrections. Technically, the most recent reversal has seen poor breadth within NQ. The majority of the rise have been driven by the usual narrow Big Cap, heaviest weighted Equities. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, FB, MSFT - NVDA provided most of the gains for Index. Unusual option activity has been on the rise as well, favoring large and often extreme positions for downside. One Trade amounted to $40Million in QQQ 340 Puts. The NQ has repeatedly created a large squeeze prior to a reversal, the last thrust higher pushed up 500 points late in the day only to collapse the following day, giving up all of its gains. IMHO, something is brewing which will be extremely bad for the NQ. There are a number of vectors for it see a large correction. Earnings will be led by share buy backs, Co2 Credits and a host of other accounting manifestations, but Gross Revenues should be less than optimal for a sustained uptrend. The "Delta" variant may encourage some traders to position for increasing "growth" initially - this is not March of 2020. Taiwan is at risk on a number of fronts. This would clearly be a large negative for Semiconductors. I do believe this will play out as there is an increasing number of large entities seeking to follow Apple's lead with their RISC Architecture and begin using their own Chipset Designs and Architecture. MSFT announced this some time ago. Google continues to reduce MSFT Office's market share with Google Docs. Windows 11 is a clear signal MSFT is changing their strategy after having announcing Win 10 was it. The concentration of Chip/Chipset fabrication in Taiwan presents an imbalance globally and with it the attendant risks. China is one, Water is another and there are a more. Japan has recently sworn to defend Taiwan as they are wholly dependent on Semiconductors for almost everything they manufacture. The US has conducted multiple Naval exercises in the South China Sea for years. IS something brewing there? I do not know, but do believe there is an inherent risk well advanced with respect to Taiwan. There is little the US can do to prevent China taking back Taiwan IMHO. I favor a Geopolitical Event inducing this correction, one that occurs after hours during GLOBEX and not RTH. Europe is well advanced in declining Economic activity. The pace of Economic growth in China has slowed. The US reopening trade has been one of confusion, mistrust and one foot our the door. If traders review Samsung in 2019 and their decline in Gross Revenues, we are witnessing the same event spreading once again. Inflation changes purchasing decisions, substitution effects begin to take place. There is much more, but I will condense this in now: I expect Tech to see a large correction later this month. I expect a number of Monthly Red Bars for a number of Indices. I will discuss the ES YM RTY and Bonds in upcoming posts. I do believe the Russell 2000 and tech will lead the Indices down soon. Perhaps August - November contracts will serve us well. Given the large ranges, using Micro Contracts for Inverse Ladders would be a wise choice. The VXN should be monitored closely, it has worked well. We will see how hard this can be pushed prior to a large reversal. The VIX has not been as correlated to the NQ as the VXN and 10Yr Yields. Good Trading Everyone - more to follow as we are approaching highs in everything, although the YM won't likely peak until August.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by HK_L61
2
Is this a breakdown or a meltup?The choice is yours - you can see it any way you like. The technical features here are: 1. Reducing peaks of squeeze momentum. 2. Recent RSI is below 50. 3. Rejection of 4H ATR line. 4. Large area of consolidation. Caution: none of the above means that price has to crash. Just to be clear - price could well go to the moon. The technical situation in my assessment (at this time) means greater probability for the south. Probability estimates do not predict how far a movement may go. This is a set up for a trend-following scenario i.e. high risk to high gain. High risk means high probability of big losses, if you don't know what you're doing if you short this. Following a trend south means finding a suitable trend that is below the 4H time frame. There is no magic formula to work that out. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
Most Valuable StockApple is the most valuable publicly traded company ($2.37T) behind Saudi Aramco. This title has been rightfully earned as the company continues to deliver in customer loyalty, growing services business, and continued product development pipeline. This stock has continuously made all-time highs since its inception and is currently within 1% of its all-time high of $143.15. Technically, there are three indicators that show favorable future price action. 1) The company is not in an overbought condition according to the MACD. 2) The company has tested its previous resistance of low $140s multiple times. 3) The company Price-to-Earning ratio has consolidated as earnings have risen in the past couple of months Furthermore, as interest rates have been low this company is a safe bet to outperform due to its historical growth. This provides a sense of risk-free return, a great hedge in the current high-valued market. Finally, there has been significant call buying recently further ratifying the potential for a breakout.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by howdydany
AUDUSD recovery battles 200-DMA amid mixed sentimentAUDUSD pares weekly gains while easing to 0.7543 amid early Wednesday. The pair earlier benefited from the Fed’s rejection to rate hike and tapering before the US dollar picked up safe-haven bids. Additionally, weighing on the quote could be risk-negative headlines from China and cautious sentiment ahead of US PMIs. Hence, failures to cross the key moving average, namely 200-DMA around 0.7555, could recall the 0.75000 threshold on the chart. However, any further downside will be restricted by a four-month-old support line near 0.7485. Meanwhile, an upside breakout of 200-DMA level of 0.75555 will need to cross multiple lows marked since early February near 0.7580 to convince buyers for a return. Following that, the 0.7600 and early month low near 0.7645-50 should gain the market’s attention as a break of which could confirm the bullish momentum targeting the monthly top near 0.7775. Overall, AUDUSD fades bounce off the key support line and hence further weakness can’t be ruled out.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Where can we buy $LINK with the best risk reward ratioHi, welcome to this quick update hope it can improve your perspective on the market. We are witnessing some huge volatility at the moment, but these volatile times are the best to fill your bags with some good and promising coins. 1.You can start Buying $LINK at this current low and aim for $26 as your first Target and $33-$34 as your second Target midterm. 2.If you haven't bought $LINK at $15 or so, I recommend you to put some Buy orders at $13, as it is the midpoint of the previous Bull market range. The crucial points that you should consider are: We don't want to see $LINK drops below $9-$8, so your Stop-loss is below that area. If you are perma Bull, then you should know that the bullish breaker lays around $33. If you are going to buy $LINK at this current price, then average down or average up at the levels that I drew, depending on your own risk management Your likes and comments will cheer me up a lot, thanks.
Long
by CryptoSep