Education using BTSI'm eternally bullish on BTS, but a year-long bear situation is possible...
When trading, look at the risk to reward. Shorting to the bottom of the triangle would yield 50% returns. Although you may get the false pride of buying the bottom.
However, longing to the NEAREST resistance level is 100% returns.
Longing to the second nearest resistance level is 300% returns.
There is lots of infighting in the Bitshares community right now, but at least there is fighting going on. There is no growth without decay.
Who knows?
Good luck.
Risk!!!
How To Setup A TradeThe most important part of trading is risk management. A correctly calibrated risk management system helps a great deal in reducing emotions and increasing returns . There are two elements that allow a trader to control the risk of his entry: the maximum risked amount of equity per entry and the stop loss. In the example above, we are assuming that we are about to enter a long trade in XAUUSD at the closing price of $1463.30/oz. What are the steps to define the maximum risked amount and to define the optimal stop loss range? An easy way to do this is to divide the account value by 32 to find out the maximum risked amount and divide the ticker value by 32 to find out what the stop loss range should be. The fraction of 1/32 is handy in calibrating risk management metrics. Doing this helps in avoiding over-leveraged trades through defining the maximum risked amount, and it aids in minimizing the risk of being stopped out every other trade through defining a stop range that is not too tight for the market volatility.
3:1 R/R 100 PIPS SetupAnother solid Risk to Reward setup here. I cannot stress how important it is to have a good Risk to Reward ratio under pinning all of your trading decisions. I always look for 5:1, 4:1 or at least 3:1 reward for any capital I put at risk. This means that even if im performing badly and placing more losers than winners, I'm likely to at least break even or even sneak some profit overall.
My reason for placing this short is fundamentally the euro is weak, its main pair EURUSD hit new lows today. While fundamentally the Canadian Dollar is under pinned by strong Oil prices.
In terms of technical analysis, I am targeting a retest of the broken trend line here to provide some impetus for bears.
IS IT WORTH TAKING THE TRADE? THE FINAL DECISIONSSo you have the "perfect" setup; all the stars align and you feel utterly confident in taking the trade, but should you? I have a process that must be completed before I even think about pressing the trigger.
Fundamental analysis points me in one of two directions, then from there I'm either short or long. I then look if there is a technical entry point that lines up in the way I want to enter. The final step to take is too see what target will be and what my R:R is.
For those that don't know R:R is risk to reward. So if you have 1:1 R:R and you risk 1% of your capital on a trade, then you stand to gain only 1%. This is pretty much a 50/50 gamble, and we don't gamble in trading.
If all the stars align and the R:R is 1:1 DON'T TAKE THE TRADE, MOVE ON!
We win by having better winning trades than looser's. Ideally I want a 1:1.5 R:R, ideally 1:2 (So if i risk 1% and my trade reaches TP I gain 1.5% or 2%).
If I have a R:R less that this I stay away or risk 0.5% on a trade, but I advise you stay away from the trade and look for another opportunity. After all, there are infinite entries in the future.
Happy Trading.
ORBEX: EURGBP Ready To Reverse? AUDJPY Still Correcting!In today’s market insights video recording, I talk about EURGBP and AUDJPY FX Minors.
Euro is affected by a report that a phase-1 deal is highly unlikely by the end of this year as the Chinese want rollbacks pushed to May 2020 and the US Congress just passed a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters; going against China again!?
Safe-haven flows were also increasing of course, following the report, allowing yen to appreciate against risk assets with AUDJPY attracting our attention once again!
Pound, on the other hand, is somewhat muted as the first televised debate between Boris and Corbyn was seen as a draw. This means that the euro's somewhat better performance could allow EURGBP reverse and move higher!?
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
NZDJPY is going downNZDJPY is currently in the upper part of the range channel and it is very likely to go back down in the next hours. TP and SL are the top and the bottom of the channel respectively that I have indicated with the horizontal lines.
I calculate the risk for this trade as over 3 times lower than the potential profit.
Good luck!
*This idea is for educational and advising purposes and should not be the exclusive base of your trades. Before trading, make your own analysis as well.
GBPCAD : POTENTIAL REVERSAL ?The GBP is still at the top of the Daily strength meter v CAD which has dropped below the zero line the past 3 days indicating a push up for GBP.
The problem here is that GBP has been attempting the move the past month and keeps being restricted in its advance.
A break and close above 1.7100 should provide clarity to the upside for the time being.
Should GBP start declining on the strength & weakness meter a reversal could be more favourable.
POLITICS !!!!
Thought on Gold MovesRisk reaction will continue till 1615 (some fib. retracement),
then with the FOMO effect loads will buy gold, and big institutional traders will then short the gold to squeeze profit out of them. First to 1400 with fluctuations there, then down to 1200.
Then they will cancel most other traders with the trick move, and the real gold price ascent will happen from 2021 onward to 1800$
(I cant expect later)
[Reversal] USDJPY setting up for bullish breakoutDespite the US dollar sliding most of last week, USDJPY did not selloff as much as other USD pairs. As a result, price has been able to maintain the ascending channel within the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Inverse head and shoulders patterns can trigger a reversal in momentum if enough volume gets behind positive price action (PA). The head of the pattern touches a key level of support, ~104.60, which acted as support during major selloffs in early 2018 and 2019. Longer term (M/W), price continues to coil within the descending triangle pattern, again, 104.60 as support for the pattern. If positive PA continues and the inverse head and shoulders pattern is activated, price may reach the ~112 range. However, that would require breaking weekly trend resistance so be mindful if you are trading this pair.
Overall market risk trends will dictate how trends turn out. It will be interesting to see if the Yen can maintain its safe haven status or if people will to the dollar.
GOLD 15 to 1 Long Trade - will it play out?Hello all DuncanForex here with another trade idea
I am hedging GOLD - I am currently short, however I am looking for it to potentially turn around and head higher as it is now near the dynamic support line (which was resistance) from the previous down trend.
If this does head higher - it could be a fast move.
I will watch accordingly
Find me on Twitter, YouTube and my website
thanks for looking
Safe Trading
Duncan
GET READY: ETHEREUM The video shows a contracting wedge into a zone of congestion. This is sometimes a reversal pattern.
I make no predictions. I explain carefully about losses and risk management of this situation.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or an encouragement to trade in securities. No liabilities accepted. Your losses are your own. This means you sue yourself if you lose your money.
Sometimes it's not trading which is the winning strategy....We've all been there....
- An alert on your phone draws your attention, "GBP USD up x%"
- A news story comes out; in this case "Brexit Breakthrough" and before you know it the markets are going nuts.
- You scramble on to the charts to take a look at the action and Holy Moly things are going UPPPPP!!! Naturally your eyes ignore all of the indicators on the chart, and it is natural. I think much like how we read words (We see the shape of the word not the letters which make it up), we see the chart and the big reward, not what could be happening.
- We jump into the action, ignore our pattern recognition, ignore our indicators, ignore our structures and well.... at that point it's plain old gambling not trading.
- Now, on this occasion as the chart shows, you might have been alright, the pound is shifting up, but it's shifting up on Brexit speculation, big banks buying the pound and news reporting after the fact, not because your strategy tells you you should enter. What happens tomorrow, if there is no Brexit deal? What if you entered now because it looks amazing, nothing more and tomorrow Brexit is off? You lose.
- I know, I've been there. Trumps Presidential victory I played the short and the long which happened and made one of the biggest losses of my trading career and all because I was trying to 'catch the wave' through fear of missing out (FOMO) and got it wrong in both directions.
- This fortnight, I missed the pound's massive surge, mainly because my capital was committed to other pairs and stocks and I have strict rules on how I allot my capital. And I made a comfortable profit on my other trades; not as much as I could have made on the pound, but the point is, I profited because I followed what I had learned and made a measured, relatively smaller risk trade. And when I looked at GBP USD, my response was, "Okay, I missed it; onto the next one".
- In our trading lives we will all have the occasional monster of an opportunity, but as we know, most trading is waiting around for things to happen, getting in and then.... waiting for more stuff to happen. These sorts of big trades are rare and I can guarantee you, the best trading strategy in the world will also not stop you being on the wrong side of them also once in a while. It's just the way of things. Better to follow your strategy and profit when your system tells you to.
- FOMO is real people, make sure you're entering for the right reasons!
Silver setting up for bullish breakoutSilver trades similar to gold. If there is severe risk aversion, expect for silver to rally. Price is trading near a previous level of resistance. If it can hold, it will become support. I would like to see price retest 16.86 before continuing higher. It would create a confluence of support. Price has already tested DS twice and it would put price near the apex of the triangle, making it prime for a violent break in either direction. If you plan on trading any precious metals, pay close attention to what is happening in politics. There will be a lot of fed speak next week and chances are they will be addressing QE4. Also, pay attention to trade wars as this will be the main driver for risk sentiment.
ORBEX: GBPCHF, AUDJPY - Tradetalk & Brexit Signals Mixed! In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #gbpchf and #audjpy minors!
Both pairs are showing an identical pattern and are indeed influenced by:
AUDJPY
- Tradewar tensions but latest from positive developments on the back of a potential partial deal Chinese are willing to do
- Positive Home Loans in AU and negative BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index figures
GBPCHF
- Blury Brexit developments with the risk of an election following an extension increasing
- UK-EU talks not looking good despite EU announcing otherwise
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice