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Further downside unlocked in GoldWe have some important updates here on Gold after the previous chart (see attached: "Large triangle forming...?"). It is now clear we are in the final leg of an ABC sequence. It is time to start paying attention to the Gold chart over the coming weeks, there is a very strong argument to be made for a top being formed here. This can retrace as much as 1255 here in another leg lower. To the other side, if we price starts to stabilise around 1325 then we may have set the low in the "E" chapter for those following the triangle. So to put it simply, what we have on the menu here to trade is the possibility of a top at 1325. If resistance holds here then we are unlocking a move back towards 1255 before eventually putting scaffolding up around a material low. Alternatively, I will be ready to add upside exposure should be crack the 1325. Good luck all those trading Gold for Spring.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
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Long
by MikeCryptoSignals
3
Short USD/JPY via risk=> Here we are isolating the Yen once more and expecting a worsening outlook of US assets to continue which will raise the prospect of asset repatriation out of the US. Whilst risk may be rebounding temporarily as the FED attempts a dovish shift, and US-China trade tensions are likely to continue de-escalating, USDJPY will still like remain on offer amid broader USD weakness. Here we also expect the rebound in risk sentiment to be temporary rather than fixed, meaning JPY will see some inflows. If Japanese banks tighten conditions further we will have a greater incentive for real money to reduce their exposure in the US. The only risk here is if risk on sentiment stays supported and the US macro outlook improves. For those interested in more details on the "flash crash" please see our previous USDJPY weekly chart! Good luck and all the best for those invested in the US.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Leg D completed on the Weekly... expecting bears to come in hereThose who have been following our commentary on Gold will have known 1180-1220 was our initial entry for longs when the position was anti-consensus. Once it started working we released the idea of longs towards 1345 and finally we are here after 14 weeks. Expecting a large retrace here as bulls unwind their positions and book profits, we have an opportunity to ride this retrace leg to the downside. Inflation is starting to edge down, the only card we need to be aware of is risk. For those tracking the macro side, via inflation 1225 is the only level in play for bears on this final leg E. There is plenty of room below current levels and we see great value in shorts here. Best of luck to those trading live, please remember to like and comment and keep the support coming. Thanks
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
Signs of homemade inflation a few months away... [take 2]For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. Initially we attempted shorting this before the market ran away without us. So in this second attempt we are positioning for exactly the same flow. => Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade) ...assuming we can clear risks on the US & China trade front then the stage looks set for a test as low as 1225 before any further meaningful upside ... would expect this to begin happening with an earnings recession towards Q3/Q4 this year. Good luck to those on the sell side here, we are being aggressive with the trigger in attempt to outsmart the beginning of a very large leg ahead of inflation data next week from the US.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
3
!!! DJI 1937 DO YOU BELIEVE IN COINCIDENCES ??? DEJA VU ???In the late 1937 after the great depression huge money printing have happened in order to stimulate the economy... Many successful investors and portfolio managers have mentioned that we have been in the last cycle of the business cycle ! According to one of the most successful money managers Ray Dalio we have been in a similar perdion as the late 30s period. After looking at charts it turned out that we are in TOO SIMILAR situation. Sell off have occurred after a huge rally that sell of has formed bearish cypher pattern. RSI have been showing overbought condition with bearish divergence. The bull trap has occurred after that with new hopes new believes for the bright future... But all of a sudden bad things start to happen and they GRIND ON slowly but surely. Just thinking about it... Hopefully there is some more room to go but all of that money printed all of that huge debt, slowing economic growth, trade tensions negative bond yields, few EU economies close to a recession it seems to me that thing might become really really BAD. Gold has appreciated significantly in the last 4 months... Be prepared. GOOD LUCK
DJ:DJI
by TG_Advisory
3
Signs of homemade inflation a few months away...For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. => Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade) ...assuming we can clear risks on the US & China trade front then the stage looks set for a test as low as 1225 before any further meaningful upside ... would expect this to begin happening with an earnings recession towards Q3/Q4 this year. Good luck to those on the sell side here, we are being aggressive with the trigger in attempt to outsmart the beginning of a very large leg ahead of inflation data next week from the US.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
Leveraged Loans | Corporate Risk Premium Crisis?Many of you may not be familiar with leveraged loans and the ETFs that have become available to investors through funds over the last few years, but they are important to understand in order to have an edge over the rest of the markets these days - whether that's traditional equities, commodities, derivatives or crypto - as wealth preservation will be a big theme during 2019/2020. Investors have been driven into leveraged loans and related products sharply since the Financial Crisis as a result of record low interest rates in developed markets caused by experimental monetary policy; investors have been desperate for yield! And so we have seen very low risk premium spreads between "risky" junk paper and "risk free" treasury paper as a result of distortions in the marketplace. This spread is currently in the single digits, but during the Financial Crisis - when credit flow started to freeze - the spread skyrocketed into the 40 point range! Treasuries have only room to go lower in the event of a credit crisis and so one can imagine that risky corporate paper will be the victim of such a scenario as companies no longer get access to cheap credit. This will put huge pressure on corporate yields, resulting in defaults and deeply discounted paper. FYI: The Quantity Theory of Credit is my theoretical and empirical inclination. Anyway, keep an eye on leveraged loans and the ETF carrying them. Due to the way these ETFs are held by funds they also carry significant redemption risks, which can cause a run on the funds that issue them and cause funds to panic sell to meet redemption requests from investors. I'm sure there are a few strategies one could devise to take advantage of such a scenario ;)
AMEX:BKLN
by Trader6127
don't worry about your losses what happens if you have a 1:1.5 risk reward ratio(means if you win you won 1/5% of your balance if you lose you lost1% of your balance) and doing 2 trade via any strategy that you prefer in a day (means your open trades should not be more than 2 at the same time). at the end of the month, you do 40 trades so we see below what happens(20 days * 2 trades = 40 trade in a month): ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- if you win 40 trades and lost no trades you make 60% in a month (40*1/5)-(0*1)=60-0=60% if you win 35 trades and lost 5 trades you make 47/5% in a month (35*1/5)-(5*1)=52/5-5=47/5% if you win 30 trades and lost 10 trades you make 35% in a month (30*1/5)-(10*1)=45-10=35% if you win 25 trades and lost 15 trades you make 22/5% in a month (25*1/5)-(15*1)=37/5-15=22/5% if you win 20 trades and lost 20 trades you make 10% in a month (20*1/5)-(20*1)=30-20=10% if you win 15 trades and lost 25 trades you miss -2/5% in a month (15*1/5)-(25*1)=22/5-25=-2.5% if you win 10 trades and lost 30 trades you miss -15% in a month (better change your strategy) (10*1/5)-(30*1)=15-30=-15% if you win 5 trades and lost 35 trades you miss -27/5% in a month (better change your strategy) (5*1/5)-(35*1)=7/5-35=-27/5% if you win no trades and lost 40 trades you miss -40% in a month (better change your strategy) (0*1/5)-(40*1)=0-40=-40% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now we average results: (60+47/5+35+22/5+10-2/5-15-27/5-40)/9=10% On average you can make 10% a month At the first sight you may tell yourself how I am going to be rich with only 10% monthly so please attention to below and see what happens if you start with 5000$ 1) 5000*1/10=5500$ 2) 5500*1/10=6050$ 3) 6050*1/10=6655$ 4) 6655*1.10=7320$ 5) 7320*1.10=8052$ - - 12) 15,692$ - - 24) 49,248$ - - 36) 154,563 - - 48) 485,086$ - 56) 1,039,825$ Congratulations!!! Now you are a millionaire after about 4/5 years of hardworking patience and discipline This why we should not be afraid of our losses GOOD LUCK Abolfazl Abedi
Education
by abolfazlabedi
Bitcoin update, Bull flag The last 24 hours have been quite interesting and informative. We saw a nice breakout from the bullfrog on lower timeframes but as many times seen on bitcoin a clear rejection from the top and a dump back to where we started. I think we can go to 4250$ today if the support don't break if the support breaks then we can go all down to 3800$. If BTC goes up i will see how BTC reacts and take a short position on 4210 - 4240. I trade on Bitmex guys let me know what are your thougts :) Your @dk.kern
BITMEX:XBT
by DavidKern