August 16 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Balance Area; Russell $1,600 Supply Area; Stronger Selling; Buyer’s Non-Committal; Market Still In Uptrend.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices digested prior advances, evidenced by the non-separation of value.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday's higher open on pandemic relief efforts coming from the White House was erased on a liquidation to Friday’s range. Buyers later responded, establishing a v-bottom before resolving the contract adjusted all-time-high, overnight. After investors shrugged off news of simmering geopolitical tensions, Tuesday’s U.S. session gave back all advances, liquidating enough to repair the poor structure below $3,330.
Alongside news of resilient fuel demand, relative strength shifted to the Nasdaq Wednesday, with equity indices squeezing shorts and erasing the low-volume area left behind Tuesday’s liquidation. Thursday’s overnight activity caught up to Wednesday’s divergent delta, drifting lower alongside uninspiring political news. During the U.S. session, the S&P managed to pop higher, to and through the resting liquidity at the $3,375 area, before testing lower and closing in-range, neutral. The session’s narrative carried forward with Friday’s session ending the week in-balance and range.
In light of dull participation, the risks of a pullback have increased. Buyers lack the conviction to follow-through and sellers are beginning to step up on the liquidations that get rid of those weak buyers. The Russell 2000 closed the week off lower after coming to the $1,600 supply area. The Nasdaq, despite regaining relative strength, failed to make a new high, balancing out into week-end.
To see a positive change in tone, there needs to be separation of value beyond the all-time-high. Until then, the potential exists for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
NY Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts; Initial Claims; Philly Fed Business Index; Leading Index; PMI; Existing Home Sales.
Fundamental:
Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal. bit.ly
Coronavirus vaccine won’t become widely available to Americans until 2021. bit.ly
U.S. retail sales slow in July; obstacles mount for nascent economic recovery. reut.rs
Judge rejects a General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) case against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). reut.rs
Fortnite maker sues Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). cnn.it
United States petroleum inventories show a gradual rebalancing. reut.rs
Economy not enjoying a V-shape recovery, but is instead on the verge of a W-shape. bit.ly
Trump’s executive orders to shore up the economy will not be sufficient. bit.ly
ARK Invest CEO and CIO recaps recovery, reasons optimistic perspective. bit.ly
JOLTS shows far fewer jobs added in than the department's NFP report. bit.ly
Market avoids the Great Recession’s calamities, but economy struggling. bit.ly
Credit quality worsened again as the effects of the pandemic continued to weight. bit.ly
Trading volumes remain elevated, even as volatility returns to more normal levels. bit.ly
Post-election regime should stimulate growth through capital friendly policies. bit.ly
New York’s statewide positive test rate has remained at 1% for two months. bit.ly
The new economy stocks drive markets, but recovery won’t be v-shaped. bit.ly
The budget deal changes the way financial markets look at the eurozone. bit.ly
Producer prices rose by the most since October 2018, following June decline. bit.ly
Weak revenue environment will lead to fiscal austerity and higher leverage. bit.ly
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) in talks with Kabbage over acquisition. bit.ly
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) relaunches Twitch Prime as Prime Gaming. tcrn.ch
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces 5-for-1 stock split on August 31. bit.ly
Saudi Aramco sees a recovery in global oil demand, justifying export prices. reut.rs
COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system. bit.ly
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) jumps ship to join startup Stripe. reut.rs
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to produce 1B vaccines by next year. reut.rs
Court reverses antitrust ruling against Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM). reut.rs
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) curbs ads by U.S. news publishers with political ties. reut.rs
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) to cut debt before boosting output. reut.rs
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX cancellations rise, deliveries drop as crises drags on. reut.rs
U.S.-China trade deal in fine shape, White House’s Kudlow says. reut.rs
Gold has had its worst day in 7 years, but investors remain bullish. bit.ly
The U.S. already is feeling the impacts of ending unemployment benefits. bit.ly
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) bid for GM’s credit card business. reut.rs
Microsoft Inc (NASDAQ: MSFT) dual-screen Android phone to arrive September 10. reut.rs
Airbnb plans to confidentially file for an IPO in August. reut.rs
U.S. energy bankruptcy surge continues on credit, oil-price squeeze. reut.rs
Fed moves too far from mandate, fine tuning poses increased risks. bit.ly
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) eyes Sears, J.C. Penney stores for fulfillment. on.wsj.com
One-third of American renters expected to miss their august payment. bloom.bg
More than a third of Americans wouldn’t take a free and approved COVID vaccine. bit.ly
How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending, employment. bit.ly
COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand is significant and uneven. bit.ly
Coronavirus shutdowns reduce consumption, shift energy costs to individuals. on.wsj.com
U.K.’s faster-than-expected recovery prompts BOE to lower impairments forecast. bit.ly
Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s (NYSE: ICE) Ellie Mae acquisition is credit negative. bit.ly
U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co (NYSE: KODK) won’t proceed if allegations remain. reut.rs
Shares of major airlines rose on increases in the U.S. TSA screening numbers. reut.rs
Federal Reserve announces post-stress test capital ratios for large banks. reut.rs
Sentiment: 30.3% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 8/12/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,235,179,076 as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43% as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX
Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
Gold (GC): OANDA:XAUUSD NASDAQ:XAU AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX
Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL TVC:USOIL
Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
