BTC, ETH, LTCRelentless bear decimates $BTC, $ETH, $ LTC. Alt coins going six feet underground. Chest thumping crypto cheerleaders zipped. That's how the bear works.
Search in ideas for "BTC ETH"
BTC ETH LTC manipulation speculationI'll make a speculative call right now - Big money sell off to drive down price. Tomorrow LTC leads the rally to rebound prior to block 1371111. All chart signals indicated an uptrend. My guess this will show as an aberration on the 1D, and it will resume the course we were on today. Just a blind speculation from an outsider. It was also a good time to take profits, as indicated by red rectangle. The top of the previous downtrend - existing resistance line.
BTC -> ETH FLippening - WHENETHBTC can reach for flippening following new ATH. Even 35% further upside possibility
Will see within 1-2 months
BTC,ETH and LTC daily outlook Bitcoin has shown a huge sell off almost 20% from yesterday high. the pair hits intraday low of 12560 and recovered slightly from that level. The pair minor bullishness can be seen only above 15000. Any break above 15000 will take the pair to next level till 17000/18000. On the lower side, any break below 12560 will drag the pair to next level till 10958 (50- day MA)/7880 (100- day MA).
Ethereum declined sharply after hitting temporary top around 870. Minor bullishness can be seen only above 750 level. Short term bullish invalidation below 600. Any violation below 600 will drag the pair to next level till 390.
LTC/USD Major resistance -300 and support 200. Below 200 targets 132/100. Above 300 348/370.
Bitcoin | Psychological Barrier | $1200 | Conflict of Interest |Bitcoin in the past few days has corrected itself from a low of 900$ to 1200$ .
Bitcoin is right now testing the resistance and the psychological barrier .
But the thing is right now Bitcoin is in deep water and trouble with the debate about scaling of bitcoin going on where mining giants like Bitmain , AntPool , F2POOL are stopping segwit due to their own ulterior motives .
Mining Manufacturer are Blocking SegWit to Benefit from ASICBOOST and to have an edge over other mining giants such as bitfury .
Right now the price of bitcoin does not reflect what is going down in the ecosystem which is being corrupted by ego and money .
Keeping everything in mind , Bitcoin should go down from here and correct due to the fact that breaking the psychological barrier would need bull news and solution to conflict of interest
how much bitcoin would you buy if this was 2012 again?!!bitcoin has been one of the best investments in the last 10 years, how much bitcoin would you buy if you had the chance to buy it at 1$ ?
a new coin called ANS antshares has came out , and it has a deal with the largest marketplace in the world - Alibaba.
this is pretty HUGE for the coin and for crypto in general. a Chinese bot has bought yesterday 250k$ worth of ANS at yuanbo exchange, this remind me of bitcoin bots when it was under 5$ .
so that's a very investment to do and forget about for a year or 2.
read more about the Alibaba deal here:
siliconangle.com
BTC does the top before ETH again! ETH/USD is next!!!Just to be clear: I am long on ETH and flat on BTC. In the chart above, the candles are BTC/USD, the blue line is ETH/USD, and the comparison in purple below is ETH/USD. The chart shows a weekly view to fit the entire analysis in the frame, but the potential price paths I drew in it could play out in a matter of hours or days if the market speed accelerates. I do not try to time markets - I attempt to analyze the highest probability areas they will go to, but I have no idea how long they will take to get there!
ETH/BTC may hold the key to understanding how BTC/USD tops before ETH/USD at the ATH and how we may be seeing a repeat of historical price action. Note that on ETH/BTC we have a potential triple bottom reached in the past day or so when BTC reached the peak of it's recent run to the 8300s. This what exactly what occured when BTC reached the ATHs in Dec of 2017. ETH/BTC bottomed at the BTC top only to rally in the following couple weeks as ETH then made a new ATH after BTC did. Based on the triple bottom action in ETH/BTC, I decided to overlay BTC/USD and ETH/USD and then line the charts up using a retracement fib on BTC/USD. The fibs line up best when pulled from near the top of BTC down to a (potential future bottom of 2k BTC over summer?!) level of around 2000 on BTC/USD. You can see that when you overlay ETH/USD (shown in blue) that it appears ETH may have bottomed, whereas BTC may have not. You can also see and compare the ATH price action on BTC/USD, ETH/USD and ETH/BTC to where we are now and I believe it's not a stretch to see why ETH may be getting ready for a solid rally of nearly 100%.
Here is a look at what happened when we were at the ATHs:
Here is what happened just after the ATHs:
Here is what it looks like where we are now, when you line up sideways movement in ETH/BTC on the BTC/USD and ETH/USD overlays:
This type of analysis is very hard to do because it is difficult to line up the overlays correctly to see relative price movements at the same time, but ETH/BTC is a big key as when it moves sideways is when the price action should line up the most.
I believe that we should see ETH/USD break to the upside in the very near future as ETH/BTC begins to build positive structure off the triple bottom. During this time, BTC/USD could move sideways. In my opinion, BTC/USD is reaching exhaustion and, much like you see at the ATH - it may drop hard and suddenly, giving ETH room to gain in ETH/BTC if ETH doesn't fall as hard, moves sideways, or moves up during this time. Likewise, it is possible that BTC holds in this area and simply lets ETH/USD catch up, which would look like a slower and more gradual climb on ETH/BTC. Market conditions are different than they were when we came of the ATHs, but we are seeing a lot of the same type of hype behaviors in the market. It is entirely possible that some "magic news" appears on ETH that drives a strong move upwards so that ETH is able to regain some of the lost strength relative to BTC. It should also be noted that ETH/USD dipped hard as BTC/USD fell off the ATHs - likely shaking out many weak hands and tight stops before ETH took it's turn in the ATH spotlight. This means we could see ETH/USD dip to get the square ups below (around 160 and 180), but that the dip could be fast and then ETH could bounce back up while BTC does not.
Long story short, ETH may rally as high as the low 400s before this hype move off the "bottom" is completed, while it is unlikely that BTC has much room left to run in USD value. It could blow above the current fib level as ETH comes up, but it is unlikely to hold that action for long as this move is highly unsustainable. The current Tether and Binance lockdown situation are also in play and should affect your risk consideration! If significant negative news is released in the near future, this entire setup could be tossed out. Always start with risk first when building any position!
Will history repeat itself? Are the algos driving the market through cyclical patterning fractals of price action? Only time will tell!!
I am currently only holding ETH and fiat as this market looks to be setting many alts up for capitulation through the BTC/USD pump, by holding their USD prices steady despite losing nearly 50% in btc pairing values. This means when BTC/USD turns - those alts will now lose USD value twice as fast. Be smart, protect your capital!!
I am NOT a financial adviser and this information is for educational purposes only!!
Bitcoin: the king is dead, long live the king!We are at a historical moment in the lifetime of the crypto markets. The BTC dominance fell below 50% to never return above it ever again. I already spoke about it in my last ETH/BTC post (linked below); ETH is here to become the second hedge for the crypto market next to BTC.
BITCOIN AS AN INTRODUCTION TO CRYPTO
The time that people only knew Bitcoin and would only buy / trust BTC as an introduction to crypto is as good as over. With alts flourishing in gains, price, use case and performance; the popularity and adoption will only further increase. You could compare it with the internet where the at the start you just had a few dominant and well known websites to evolve into a diverse landscape of numerous websites for an almost infinite amount of use cases and communities backing them.
ALT COINS ARE DEAD
With Bitcoin falling below the 50% mark we have now entered a new era of crypto (like I said in my ETH/BTC post); the era of the "alt coin" is over. Alts are no longer alternative if Bitcoin does not make up most of the crypto market share - and with the projection of the BTC dominance only declining and never getting above 50% ever again; the word "altcoin" is dead. Instead its time for a new era: the era of cryptocoins; where each coin represents a use case and no longer is associated with its dominance in the cryptocap. In the end its simple; I project the BTC dominance to fall below 10% of the total cryptocap within the next 10 years; so how is holding any coin other than BTC seen as "alternative" if these coins make up 90% of the cryptocap? You get my point; its not. So lets get rid of the word "altcoin" right here and right now and lets evolve to an inclusice cryptospace without maxi's or "exclusionalists" and turn them into "inlcusionalists".
THE END FOR BITCOIN?
So you might think this is all doomsday for Bitcoin and I no longer support BTC or its use case, but believe me; I'm still a fan (look at my username) and a hodler. The future of BTC is very bright and we will see a BTC cap at the levels of gold (around 8tr) and possibly beyond. So yes, I project BTC will hit 1 million USD within the next 4 to 6 years. So that doesn't make BTC such a bad investment, does it? What this projection does tell you; is what crypto as a whole will do in the next decade: defi, insurance, decentralized consumer / retail solutions and trustworthy data storage being my first markets of interest concerning adoption. This means that lots of fundamentally strong "smaller cap" coins find their adoption markets and will increase their market caps immensely. Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and will fulfill its use case of digital gold; a hedge against fiat with diminishing risk and returns.
ETH VS BTC
There's one key element missing in the cryptocap puzzle: Ethereum. ETH will fullfill a crucial role for the adoption of crypto amongst the masses by providing safe and robust base layer solutions that will take up more than 50% of the total-cap of the emerging markets mentioned above. This doesnt mean that DOT, KSM, LINK, BNB (and many others) won't have any adoption or wont do well. It simply means that ETH is the Microsoft of the blockchain space - whereas most computers ran (and still run) on Windows, you will see that most blockchains will run on ETH protocols, base layers or smart contracts. Ok, great but what does this mean?
Well, this means something HUGE is about to happen and I have not heard any trader on this website about it (yet). ETH will, in the mid term; flip BTC in terms of marketcap. So this means in the future; the main hedge of crypto against crypto (not fiat) will be ETH and the ETH dominance. I project; depending on the adoption of other protocols that the ETH dominance will fluctuate between 40 and 60% in the coming decade. Obviously this means for traders that you compare your cryptocoin (not altcoin) with ETH; when you outperform ETH; you do well - when you don't; you're underperforming. An important note that I do want to add is that - also ETH in the long term - will have diminishing returns and risk - and will have the same faith as BTC - with eventually becoming less dominant in the total cryptocap and space. For now, however; its starting its way up to become the new king of crypto.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So if we look at the BTC and ETH dominance, you can clearly see that the charts and market support my theory. BTC fell below king levels of 50% and I do not expect it to ever return above it for a long period of time. It might retest 50% going into the bear market but I expect a rejection - to never return there again. So when people are chatting about "alt season", just please stop with it. It has been alt season since January and it will be alt season forever. That is a given, however with a important note that the next bear market will be painful for the alt cap in the short/mid-term. The long term is only bullish. I project the ETH dominance to keep holding a bull trend with again some possible pullbacks during the next bear market in order to just keep surging from there on after.
So to conclude, the BTC dominance will be in a permanent bear trend all the way towards 10% levels in the next decade. ETH will do the exact opposite and can (not will) surge above 50% dominance. I do not want to state my ETH price projection for the coming decade because I believe it might be too much to handle for most traders and we have to see how the deflationary model will work, but (if you like) you can 5x the craziest ETH predictions on Youtube and you could get close. For the short term; you can check my chart of where I think both are heading and I projected a nice cup and handle for the ETH dominance with a 36% surge against a -28% fall for BTC! The cup and handle being totally my own imagination but that doesn't matter too much; what matters is what the macro trend tells us: a new chapter for crypto has begun.
The king is dead, long live the king!
Most important charts for next month; Possibility for alt seasonBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Hello everyone 😃
In this article I want to explain some of the important tips and facts for next month !
Have to mention that there will be more and more tips but I would like to explain some of them.
🙋🏼♂️ Before everything; Don't forget to like our article if you enjoyed it and share your own opinion for next month in comments..
These are the charts that makes your vision more clear on movement in mid-term.
1️⃣ BTC/USD
2️⃣ USDT.D
3️⃣ BTC.D
4️⃣ OTHERS.D
5️⃣ ETH/USD
6️⃣ ETH/BTC
🔴 Before starting to discuss about this charts; These are all can be invalidated by a major fundamental !
1️⃣ BTC/USD : You can use BTC/USD's chart as a single completed chart for whole next moves;
But there are many hidden moves that formed on USDT.D and BTCDOWN/USDT, So it's better to have alternative look on other charts beside BTC/USD.
Now let's analyze the chart :
There are two stiff pressure zones;
It should be ok for BTC to break them but cause of low dominance and low transaction in a day there won't be any volume left on it to break these zones...
Also Moving averages are so near to these stiff zones and they will make it harder for BTC to break them.
📚 So the most proper scenario for BTC/USD in current situation is to have a sideway movement and it will make this possibility for ALTs to bounce !
2️⃣ USDT.D : You can use USDT.D's chart as a accurate pair to compare with BTC's movement and recognize the major direction in mid-term & long-term.
For the best conclusion I would suggest to add BTC/USD's chart on USDT.D chart :
As you can see on chart; There are two possible direction !
USDT.D is trying to break current bearish trendline ( wedge's higher line );
So current candle and next one will be very important for BTC and ALTs.
If USDT.D Break this trendline then there will be more chance for the sideway scenario.
If USDT.D Fails to break this trendline then there will be more chance for BTC to rebound above 50% dominance and continues it's rally to retest ATH !
📌 Have to mention that there is a chance for ALTs to refuse BTC's rebound and use it as a stronger sign to fly.
📚 So the most proper scenario for USDT.D in current situation is to have a breakout cause BTC has reached the resistance zone and we may see another rejection here.
3️⃣ BTC.D : You can use BTC.D's chart as a scale for the BTC's daily volume and ALTs dominance progress.
It's suggested to use it as a single chart !
As you can see BTC.D has reached the support zone;
Current level is important for ALTs and BTC's movement.
If BTC.D rejects to hold above 50%; Then we may see a big altcoin season or a major correction into bull run.
If BTC.D pulls back from this level; Then we may see a continuation on BTC's growth till ATH.
📌 Now fundamentals and huge volume traders are market makers, If ETH leads to break above 2700$ then we may see a start of bigger alt season in mid-term !
📚 We can't make decision on BTC.D for now but as we know, BTC's is at resistance zone and it could be a bad for BTC.D's movement...
In continue we might see more aggressive pushes on ALTs market cap !
4️⃣ TOTAL2 : You can use TOTAL2's chart as a scale for possibility of alt seasons in bull runs.
It's recommended to use TOTAL2 ( Exclude BTC's market cap ) with BTC.D's ( new price scale mode );
As you can see on chart;
TOTAL2 had a bullish crossover on BTC.D's movement.
It means that ALTs are being more stable on BTC's pair; So if BTC failed to hold a level again they won't follow it to those dips or highs !
How ever, BTC is very stronger yet.
For now, TOTAL2 is reaching last resistance's ATH and it will make more possibility for our mega alt season's scenario.
5️⃣ ETH/USD : You can use ETH/USD's chart as a ALTs leader and their progress in micro view ! ( It's easier to analyze )
For better overview we suggest to only Use supports and resistances; Trendlines and moving averages on high time frames.
ETH has reached it's historical trendline which is starts to form from 16th August 2018 !
Also it's moving into a rising wedge. ( Most of rising wedges in bullish market will fail to rejects the pair to lower levels ).
So now there are two major directions ( There are more few direction that I didn't mentioned )
If ETH breaks trendline and holds above it; It will be another confirmation for our alt season's scenario.
If ETH rejects to break trendline; The it will dive for rising wedge's lower retest.
📚 It's better to wait for a confirmation after breakout then we will make decision for it !
6️⃣ ETH/BTC : You can use ETH/BTC's chart as a scale for ETH's leads on BTC's pair and locate the points to enter an ALT coin !
It's better to wait for a breakout on chart and then most of alts will follow ETH on their own pairs.
There is a trendline which is acted as pressure zone and being resistance for ETH movement on BTC's pair !
For all of our chart next days are important; Also we are approaching the end of month and it's make it more important.
This monthly closes on BTC/USD's chart is important also !
📌 There are some visible tries on current candle for breakout; But it didn't confirmed the aggressive movement for ETH yet.
📚 It's better to take a look on daily closes on next days; If ETH succeeded to break and hold above current zone on BTC's pair,
Then we might see the signs of mega alt season after a week.. !
📍 These 6 charts are not recommended by a verified analyzer; All of them are collected from my personal experience !
🔺 Note that this article can become invalidated by a major fundamental.
🔰 What to do in mega alt season ?
There are some suggestions for it;
- Buy major altcoins and take profit with leveraged positions.
- Hold OTHERS ( altcoins that have low market cap )
- Try to find coins with higher potential that have projects or events in short-term and mid-term..
📌 There are some other signs that makes this possibility for ALTs to growth while BTC's accumulating :
1️⃣During the #Bitcoin bull run of 2017 we saw a huge increase on the balance from exchanges.
For now, the trend is the opposite and people are withdrawing their BTCs to personal wallets.
🔰 It means that huge volume traders are holding BTC and low volume traders will try to open contracts and positions on coins which have more volatility than BTC !
2️⃣ Younger inexperienced wallets was sold their BTCs during last minor dives.
🔰 We didn't had a major dive on TOTAL market cap; So it means that they changed their holding types from BTC into ALTs !
3️⃣ Bulls have a $115 million lead on Friday's $930 million Ethereum options expiry, a signal that ETH could be a route to new all-time highs.
🔰 It means that bulls and market makers are trying to reach at new liquidity pool for ETH and it will cause continuation on mid-term after a liquidity event !
After all you can simply see that ALTs are having a upper hand for bounce than BTC's momentum in next month.
- The pre-Alts Season already completed in last 30 days.
- The main one will happen in next days => It will come and go very strongly and fast.
Let me explain it on chart !
BTC listing CME on mid Dec 2017; So it cause a drop on BTC's dominance and then Mega Alt-season happened..
Now Coinbase listing on Nasdaq was on 14th April 2021; So I expect another underperforming from BTC on ALTs.
Hope you enjoyed our article about next month's suggestions 🙌
You can support us with your likes.
Also you can share your opinion with us in comments 😉🙋🏼♂️
Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision.
Have a good day!
@Helical_Trades
Bitcoin Bull Run Precedes Ethereum RallyDays of triple digit volatility and rampant amateur speculation are gone. Unlike the overblown enthusiasm which defined the peak of 2021, investors now are more measured and discerning.
2023 has been defined by (a) discrete and information fuelled rallies followed by unprecedented low volatility, and (b) rise of traditional finance entrants in digital assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied sharply relative to Ethereum (“ETH”), pushing BTC-ETH ratio to its highest level since 2021. Several factors point to a potential reversal in the ratio. Investors can deploy CME Micro BTC and Micro ETH Futures to harness gains from eventual reversion.
BTC surged 20% during the past week driven by excitement over the anticipated approval of a BTC Spot ETF. Large liquidations triggered as BTC prices rose on its re-emergence as a haven asset as discussed in a previous paper .
BITCOIN IS A HAVEN (AGAIN)
In October, BTC’s correlation with gold rose while correlation with Nasdaq-100 has inverted suggesting that investors consider BTC as a haven rather than a risk-on asset.
The case for BTC as a haven derives from its limited supply. Every four years, the number of BTCs minted as a mining reward, halves and will eventually halt, leading to a fixed supply.
BTC has played its role as a haven previously. In March this year, during the US regional banking crisis, BTC surged 40%. BTC also rallied 20% at the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict but soon pared those gains. Given the repeated pullback in its prices, question around BTC’s ability to deliver as a safe haven remains.
Assigning BTC a haven status could be a tad bit too early. It is a new asset. It faces regulatory ambiguity. It remains under-invested relative to traditional safe havens like gold and treasuries.
Notwithstanding that BTC is new, it is the most popular and widely tested cryptocurrency. Flow of assets from riskier crypto to the safety of BTC during rising uncertainty partly contributes to haven flows into BTC.
SHORT SQUEEZE ACCENTUATED BITCOIN’S RALLY
Recent rally was punctuated by heavy deleveraging in BTC derivatives. During the long squeeze in August, 64,000 BTCs were liquidated. In the following period, only half of these long positions returned.
These positions were not spared either as large liquidations occurred on October 17th and 23rd leading to unwinding of more than 60,000 BTC.
Source: Glassnode
The size of liquidation was like those in Jan 2023 when prices definitively broke above the $20k range, suggesting that this washout may be adequate to cement a major psychological price level.
AWAITING A BTC SPOT ETF
The latest development in the BTC spot ETF saga comes as an appeals court upheld the ruling against SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s spot ETF application based on concerns that market manipulation is not addressed sufficiently.
The court held that SEC’s decision was arbitrary, capricious, and unenforceable. This time around, the SEC stated it will not be appealing any further.
The SEC’s easing stance is also echoed in the modest feedback response to other spot ETF applications. Many now believe that all spot BTC ETFs will be approved together and probably before the deadline of January 10th.
Approval of spot BTC ETFs is expected to make the asset available to a wider audience in a familiar Tradfi product structure making BTC go “mainstream.”
Spot ETFs will spur greater demand for spot BTC from ETF manufacturers. When gold ETF was first listed, incremental fund flows translated into higher demand for physical gold.
ETF listing and BTC price run is not a given as regulatory concerns remain. Prices have struggled to sustain ETF excitement driven rallies not once but thrice in 2023 due to slow developments compounded by a harsh macro backdrop.
The risk that the current rally will pullback persists. Earlier this week, price action was significantly influenced by investors speculating on the approval of Blackrock spot ETF (IBTC). The rumours have been spurred by the listing, delisting, and relisting of the ticker on Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website.
BITCOIN BULL RUN PRECEDE ALTCOIN RALLIES
In stark contrast to BTC’s rally, other major cryptocurrencies have lagged pushing BTC dominance to its highest since 2021.
ETH has rallied 15% over the past week. ETH underperformance relative to BTC has pushed the ratio between them to levels unseen since 2021.
Altcoin underperformance is unusual. During past BTC rallies, ETH price tops lagged BTC tops by a month. This is a consequence of capital rotation within crypto.
In past rallies, asset rotation can be seen in three distinct waves starting with (1) increase in BTC capital, (2) ETH rotation, followed by (3) increasing stablecoin flows.
MARKET METRICS AND ON-CHAIN SIGNALS
A raft of market metrics points to bullish sentiment in crypto markets due to resilient Long-Term Holders (LTH), limited profits at current levels, and strained supply which is expected to be exacerbated by demand from spot ETFs.
More importantly, market metrics indicate a higher bullish sentiment for ETH.
FUTURES AND OPTIONS POSITIONING
Leveraged funds have built up net short positioning over the last few weeks in BTC futures. Contrastingly asset managers have setup net long positioning. In options, BTC full size options have a bullish P/C ratio of 0.51 and Micro BTC options have a P/C ratio of 0.76.
In contrast, leveraged funds bullish on ETH have switched from net short to net long positioning last week. Full size ETH options have bullish P/C ratio of 0.38 and Micro ETH options have P/C ratio of 0.38.
Overall, leveraged funds and option markets are more bullish on ETH compared to BTC.
TRADE SETUP
BTC prices may pullback relative to ETH in the short term given price divergence. CME’s suite of crypto futures can be deployed to harness gains from this trend reversal.
The hypothetical spread posited in this paper consists of two legs: (1) long position in Micro ETH futures expiring on November 24th ( METX3 ) and, (2) short position in Micro BTC futures expiring on the same date ( MBTX3 ).
Each lot of Micro ETH futures provide exposure to 0.1 ETH while each lot of Micro BTC futures provides exposure to 0.1 BTC. To balance notional values, nineteen lots of METX3 are required for each lot of MBTX3 at current prices
● Entry: 19.090
● Target: 17.58
● Stop Loss: 20.000
● Profit at Target: USD 276
● Loss at Stop: USD 169
● Reward to Risk: 1.6x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Decisive moment for cryptoIt's weird. ETH chart shows a bearish setup while BTC chart looks willing to bust above 12k. I'm currently in an underwater short that I could close but my intuition tells me price is going way lower for the moment. The brief hope to cross 12k I think was created by whales manipulating the market, as proven by the previous million-dollar sell walls that drove ETH to $330ish.
In my limited experience I feel price is wanting to bust above $12k but whales are still trying to accumulate more coins before the rally. I deduct this from the fact that whenever the price stalls and volume is minimal, price naturally follows an upward movement. Whenever a 50 ETH sell wall appears you know something is up. At times, ETH is leading BTC, at other times BTC takes the lead, and a few occasions other coins move BTC and ETH. XRP recently dominated the market movement for a brief moment. If you switch aroudn between ETH, BTC and XRP charts you'll notice when one coin is pulling or pushing the market. At times, ETH seems to be ready for a breakout, but suddenly BTC dumps and ETH's price structure completely breaks down. Food for thought.
If my underwater short busts I will close at a 20% loss unfortunately.
Key levels are highlighted in yellow. I see two scenarios here. If BTC busts above $12k with strength then we're going to see new all time highs probably in the range of $20k. If it busts below $12k, I feel ETH might see even lower levels seeing how its structure is very different than BTC's. BTC is dying to break above $12k, while ETH's price structure looks like it's dying to break down to 330 or below.
I do foresee a possible flippening where BTC breaks out of $12k and ETH busts further below before mooning, much like 2017. It has been three years of a bear market and finally the charts are showing bullsih behavior.
I do think we are going to see all time highs in the range of $20k and above for BTC this year, I am however doubtful it will happen this month.
An extra idea: Since the YFI craze, $ETH has been behaving differently compared to the $BTC chart. I think, given all the transactions going on in this ETH-based YFI networks, that ETH is getting similar volume than Bitcoin lately. I think that could explain the difference in chart structure between the two coins. $XRP will soon launch its bridge coin, Flare or Spark or whatever, on December 14 to create a bridge between XRP and ETH smart contracts. Overall, I think this will push the value of ETH and XRP higher than $BTC (relatively, not in real price) in the future. Only because XRP's transfer fees and transfer times are neglibile, and it's the top 3 coin overall. Add to this, the upcoming ETH 2.0 upgrade and I think ETH will become top 1 coin for at least a while.
It's hard to think price might move higher after seeing such a burst from $BTC in the past weeks. However, I do think, if price is to move higher than $12k, we must see another low before moving past this resistance. Elliot Wave suggest the price has completed it's 5th wave @ 12600ish for BTC, so my intuition says we will see more lows in the short-medium term before the end of 2020.
If ETH breaks above 486 it´s all f*ed for my trade at 20x. However, i feel that is unlikely.
For now, I have my ideas highlighted in this chart. Constructive criticism is more than welcome. My ass is on the line here. I have the last of my holdings in this short I showcase in my chart, hoping my intuition is correct. If BTC breaks above $12k, I'm screwed and I basically lost a chunk of my holdings. However, if ETH breaks below the key levels highlighted in yellow, I might very well live to enjoy another week. cheers. special mention to @haraldoxrp, the mage
BTC Market Update 6th JuneMarket Update 📊: Bullish Crypto and Extremely Bullish ETH
Ethereum (ETH) is projected to reach $6,000 by the end of the year or possibly sooner.
ETH ETF Trade:
- ETFs have the potential to accumulate over 1 million ETH.
- Currently, 3.3% of ETH’s circulating supply is held in investment vehicles globally.
Trend Analysis:
- ETH investment vehicle flows have been declining steadily since November 2021.
- This decline mirrored Bitcoin (BTC) flows until the U.S. spot ETF hype began.
- Investment flows have remained stagnant for the past 2.5 years.
- A significant trend shift is anticipated following the launch of U.S. spot ETH ETFs.
Forecast for U.S. Spot ETFs:
- Expected Net Inflows: $4 billion in the first five months.
- Basis of Estimate:
- Relative global ETH AUM market share compared to BTC: 28%.
- Comparison between CME’s ETH Open Interest (OI) and BTC: ETH currently at 23%.
- Benchmarking against cumulative spot BTC ETF inflows of $13.8 billion.
Projected Inflows:
- Estimated Net ETH Inflows: $3.1 billion to $4.8 billion.
- Equivalent to: 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH.
- Represents: 0.65-0.85% of ETH’s circulating supply.
Market Dynamics and Outlook
Estimated inflows of $4 billion to ETH and approximately $3 billion of sell-side pressure in BTC (due to Mt. Gox releases) favor ETH/BTC strength over the summer. While ETH/BTC has been on a linear downtrend for the past two years, the imminent positive catalyst for ETH and corresponding negative catalyst for BTC suggest a potential breakout.
Periods of ETH outperformance tend to be short-lived but very strong. In 2021, ETH's significant outperformance against BTC occurred in a seven-week period from late March to mid-May. Given the current setup, ETH is positioned for summer strength. With the ETH/BTC ratio at 0.054, taking a long position on ETH versus BTC is considered advantageous.
After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high.
Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store.
This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the road ahead. Anticipating short-term consolidation, this paper posits a short position in BTC/ETH ratio.
BITCOIN RALLY HAS MORE IN STORE
BTC is soaring fuelled by a range of tailwinds including strong demand from newly listed spot BTC ETFs, expected BTC halving, and a broader crypto market rally.
1. On-chain metrics do not signal significant profit taking (yet). Long-term holders have shown resilience despite significant gains in their holdings. Unrealized gains can be inferred by the market-value-to-realised-value (“MVRV”) indicator . MVRV assesses the market capitalization of BTC relative to its realized capitalization. It is determined by the price at which coins were last traded.
Current MVRV of 2.5x indicates that the current BTC prices are >2.5x the price at which coins last moved. Despite this, BTC supply that has remained unmoved in the past one year has remained surprisingly resilient. Supply not moved in more than a year is down 3.75% over the past three months while prices have rallied 53% and MVRV has remained >2x.
During previous cycles, particularly, when price peaked, MVRV was closer to three times, profit taking rates were high causing physical BTC to change hands rapidly. Current conditions do not match previous drawdowns suggesting potential for consolidation limiting further gains. Past performance does not necessarily imply future trends.
Current exchange inflows are near record highs. A substantial portion of these is from short-term holders rather than long-term holders.
Source: Glassnode
2. Continued spot buying as well as strong ETF demand. ETF demand shows no signs of slowing. Since putting our last paper on 26th Feb , an additional USD 2.3B of inflows have surged into spot ETFs. The pace of daily net flows to ETFs reached its highest level to date on 29th Feb.
Demand remains so solid that NASDAQ:IBIT became the fastest ETF to reach USD 10 billion in AUM, just 51 days after launch. Fidelity’s AMEX:FBTC is not far behind at USD 6.2 billion in AUM. GBTC outflows have continued but the pace of inflows has not reached those seen at the beginning.
In addition to fund flows, traded volumes have also remained elevated. BTC ETF volumes reached USD 11 billion on 28th Feb when prices soared above USD 60k for the first time. Volume on ETFs was particularly high when price rallied to its peak of USD 64k.
3. Funding rates and options smile . Funding rates on BTC perpetual futures signal elevated levels of speculative bullish demand. Funding rates are at levels observed during past bull runs.
Options markets are also pricing in further upside after last week. BTC options volatility curve of BTCH24 (March 2024) has shown a far higher forward skew compared to prior week. This is indicative of higher price for calls (bullishness) compared to puts (bearishness).
Source: QuikStrike
Call/Put skew over the past month shows that skew for calls have started to expand once more following sharp rally above USD 60k on 28th Feb.
Source: QuikStrike
BITCOIN NOW FACES RESISTANCE
Source: Coinglass
BTC market suffered large liquidations following sharp rally on 28th Feb. Liquidations were spread across both longs and shorts, but overall short liquidations were higher.
Across two more periods when price failed to surpass USD 63k definitively, long positions were liquidated once more. Still, since then liquidations have been much smaller than the peak.
Price remains rangebound after crossing USD 60k. It faced resistance crossing past USD 65k and maintained support above USD 60k.
BTC-ETH SPREAD LIKELY TO RALLY
BTC rallies typically precede ETH rallies as described before . Since that paper was published, the spread is merely 4% lower. The spread remains elevated relative to historical levels.
ETH has its unique tailwinds pushing it higher independent of BTC and the broader crypto market. Higher ETH burn due to greater on-chain activity is reducing ETH supply.
Moreover, decisions on spot ETH ETFs are expected by May 2024. While the final decision remains uncertain, the approaching deadline is likely to fuel bullish sentiments.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC price is sharply higher and close to its previous all-time-high. Tailwinds for BTC remain intact. It faces near-term price consolidation following the sharp rally.
BTC price consolidation will favour ETH in BTC/ETH spread. ETH outperformed BTC during periods of consolidation in the past.
A spread position comprising of long Micro ETH futures and short Micro BTC futures allows investors to gain exposure to this trend with a 50% margin offset.
Micro ETH futures offer exposure to 0.1ETH and Micro BTC futures provide exposure to 0.1BTC. Thus, eighteen contracts of METH2024 are required to match notional for one contract of MBTH2024.
The below hypothetical trade setup offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.8x:
• Entry: 18.35
• Target: 16.87
• Stop Loss: 19.50
• Profit at Target: USD 5,255 (+8.1%)
• Loss at Stop: USD 4,025 (-6.2%)
• Reward to Risk: 1.3x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
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Jan.9-Jan.15(ETH)Weekly market recapAs predicted in our last recap, all 11 BTC ETFs were approved. A new era has arrived for crypto. This means that more American entities will be able to purchase BTC through asset management companies. We learned from Bloomberg that the the trading volumes of the 11 BTC ETFs in the first two trading days were $4.6 billion and $3.1 billion respectively. Although for GBTC, many speculators chose to sell and leave, more funds entered the BTC ETF.
After the BTC ETF was approved, BTC did not break through 50000, but ETH rose even more. We mentioned in the previous recap that the BTC ETF may have been priced ahead of time. Of course, this part is only for approval and will not affect the long-term bullish trend. So it’s understandable when traders start going long on the ETH\BTC rate. The picture above is what we used in the previous recap to show how far ahead BTC is relative to ETH. However, after ETH rose, BTC and ETH have almost returned to the same level. After all, the market will begin to price the ETH ETF and the upcoming Dencun upgrade, which will benefit the ETH Layer2 ecosystem.
ETH closed the gap with BTC last week, rising above given support levels. ETH showed a long-awaited initiative. Although, like BTC, ETH experienced a correction over the weekend, the magnitude of the correction was not large. The ME indicator shows that ETH maintains its bullish trend. Although ETH faces the same situation as BTC on the WTA indicator, and it is difficult to recover from short-term rise, but it does not destroy the bullish trend at a large level. We raised the resistance level to 2700 and the support level to 2200.
In summary, ETH may continue to outperform BTC this week, and we believe that ETH may hit a given resistance level.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
ETH x Binance Legacy Chart: the road to 10KFor today a very special Ethereum chart: the complete history of ETH on Binance! A chart of almost 4 years of price action of Ethereum (soon to be the biggest cryptocurrency) and Binance; the exchange that was very small on the 17th August 2017 (where this chart starts) and now the biggest CEX. Do you see the link here?
Ok, some bold claims, lets dive into Ethereum, Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole with an indepth analysis of why, how, what and when. Remember; this analysis is purely educational and reflects my opinion and it is meant for an open discussion on the topic and not as financial advice.
Why is Ethereum market leader?
Ethereum is the infrastructure blockchain of the crypto space, it represents the most adoption, usage, transactions / fees and (in my opinion) soon the highest market cap. The reason is because Ethereum became the standard and benchmark blockchain in the space because of its revolutionary technology and team of developers who built it over the years. This makes ETH the most attractive blockchain to use for developers for the following reasons:
- Decentralization (this is what crypto is for, missing this piece kills the whole point)
- High security / trustworthy
- Biggest adoption in the market (standardization)
- Compatibility (for numerous use cases; wallets, exchanges, tokens etc.)
- Biggest developer community
- Layer 2 scaling and performance solutions
With the following downsides: performance and scalibillity.
Now you might think; well, how I should I care; I am an investor/trader, not a developer. Well, my answer to that is; you are a tech investor / trader by investing in crypto; therefore technology will always be the main driver of the market - not hype. So in the end its simple; the best tech wins and for now; that best tech is Ethereum. Sure, there are many promising competitors but they are miles behind and will need years to get even close to what ETH has accomplished.
So, if the market is tech driven, we need to side with developers. So if developers choose Ethereum, we should do the same. However, that is not to say to not be exposed to any other coin or to say competitors are worse or would not be able to compete with ETH; that is just to state the status quo and the projection of at least a few years ahead: Ethereum is market leader.
How will Ethereum develop?
We all know about the ridiculous gas fees and performance issues around Ethereum (and even Bitcoin). The reason is simple; proof of work has been the first standard set to decentralize networks and to incentivize participants to maintain the network's trust and security in real time (lets call it 1G). Now, however; there is a more effective way to tackle this problem; proof of stake (lets call it 2G) with more performance, security and efficiency. This is why a lot of new infrastructure blockchains have a better performance ratio than Ethereum and why some may think; those chains will outcompete ETH.
I do not think that will happen soon, it may happen somewhen in the future but I don't see it happening in the coming 3 years but maybe not even within 5 years from now. Given I don't have a crystal ball to look into the future; 5 years is my max range. So first off; Ethereum has a bunch of upgrades coming to improve performance and scalability. This will be challenging because they need to replace the engine of their cars while keeping the car running on the road. A potential risk indeed however the perfect test for vigilance of the team and network itself to prove my 5 year projection. If they pull off ETH 2.0 without major problems and they have significantly improved their performance and scalability; a new era for ETH has opened. So lets quickly go over the updates:
- Beacon chain: staking mechanism for ETH 2.0 (implemented on December 1st, 2020)
- Berlin Fork: reducing gas fees - successfully implemented on April 16, 2021 and gas fees are down already.
- London Fork: transaction focused; fees + deflationary ETH through token burn (coming July 2021)
- Shard chains: scalability, performance and POS transaction protocol for ETH 2.0
- The Docking: Implementing the Beacon and Shard chains and live is ETH2.0 with proof of stake (2022)
The upgrades above are the most important steps for ETH becoming fully proof of stake and a deflationary cryptocurrency. By doing so, ETH elimenates scalability and performance issues and will evolve inflationary ETH1.0 into deflationary ETH2.0.
What will change for the price of Ethereum?
The consequence of the innovations will be simple; the price of ETH will go up. That is, if all implementations are successful and there is no sudden hard fork forced by an error around implementing any of the new protocols. There is always a risk involved with these upgrades and if they fail; a lot of damage can be done to the network and the ETH price.
However, given the team's expertise, experience and their history of many successful upgrades and hard forks in the past; there is no reason to believe they can not pull it off. However, I just want to mention this risk as nothing in life is risk free.
So lets dive into the chart; as you can see we had two major bull runs for ETH; one in 2017 and one ongoing right now. The ATH of 2017 was around 1400$, right now we just did 2x of that; so we aren't close to the top in my opinion but again, everybody to their opinion and analysis but here is mine...
The 2017 bull run was insane, no one would have believed in a 1400$ ETH but there it was! Now I see a similar and even stronger parabola playing out; the difference being that 2017 was pre-adoption and we are now in the early-adoption phase. A very important is example of that is that ETH is finding early adoption in Defi with selling EU bonds through digital notes through the Ethereum blockchain. You would never see the European Investment Bank come even close to crypto in 2017, let alone actually using it. So that's the main difference between 2017 and now and in my opinion more of such adoptions will follow if the above upgrades and test cases from the EIB are successful.
Technical analysis
I have to say, I had many difficulties potentially finding a top Ethereum, especially at times when everyone was bearish due to the high gas fees and the success of BSC. When I dove back into charts and the fundamentals however; a much clearer picture comes to light.
I drew two Gann fans one for the 2017/2018 parabola and one of the 2020/2021 parabola. Point of interest is the blue support line of the 2017/2028 run with 3 touch points; support for the start of the parabola, support for a new run up and the start of the bear market. The inflationary pressure combined with the bear market gave us a damn good entry on ETH; with an absolute low of around $85 just over one year ago (!). Times have changed so fast!
From that bottom we have rallied over 4000% to the current price level of around the historical number of $3300. This week we had an historical breakout (!) but first let's get into the numbers of the current bull run thus far. On April 7th we broke out of the triangle formation with a breakout target of 1475$ (purple line) - perfectly aligned with the first "top" and major resistance during this run. The end? No, because at that point we effectively formed a double bottom with a new breakout target of around 2500$. The second "top" that came so suddenly only a few weeks back and was again met with heavy resistance that threw ETH back to around 2150$. The end? No, ETh reversed upwards immediately and rallied to current levels with unbelievable ease. So right now, one would ask again; the top?
No, not in my opinion and yes I can throw all the fundamental reasons above (thats 1) but (2) there have been multiple technical indicators flashing big time! The first one that flashed was the ETH/BTC valuation that broke a key resistance and the BTC dominance that broke below 50. These two signals created an historical pivot in the crypto markets forever. (no one is writing about it because no one realizes the implications, yet!) These are that:
- Bitcoin is no longer the major and the hedge for crypto against crypto (nothing changed against fiat)
- Ethereum is from now on the crypto hedge (portfolios should be valued in ETH)
- Altcoins no longer exist and we should get rid of this word (the majority of coins cant be called alternative)
You can read more about this in my previous analyses on ETH and BTC:
ETH/BTC analysis: the historical breakout
BTC vs ETH dominance: the historical pivot
When will Ethereum hit 10K?
This brings us to the last question in this analysis; when will ETH hit 10K? So obviously we have to watch out with these projections because I mentioned the risks above and nothing is guaranteed. But if we are optimists, which investor is by making an investment, the questions is not if Ethereum hits 10K but when?
Back to chart, so we just talked about the blue support line of the 2017/2018 bull run - normally not really interesting for now right? Well no, because we just broke back into our 2017/2018 bull channel, which is insane! If we hold this trendline as support which I project we will do; we can see ETH doing another 3x from here. If we look at the parabolic structure we also broke a 3 year old resistance level and we are now in full price discovery, this is untouched terrain.
So my projection is that when the markets stay healthy and nothing bad happens to ETH for whatever reason; Ethereum can rally to 10K by the end of 2021 or in the most bullish scenario: already be at 10K in July 2021! The purple box is the one we should look out for and I would like to see ETh hitting the heart in July 2021 and hit 10K before the end of the year.
This would not only be great for us investors but this could (potentially!) catapult the price of Ethereum even further! Why? Because it could (not should) mean that Ethereum has flipped Bitcoin in market cap. Something which I expect to happen within the next 2 years. Please refer to the above analyses about the ETH and BTC dominance because its easy to make assumptions about me or this analysis but in there you find why. In short:
Blockchain about technology built on a network that is decentralized and trustless.
And that is exactly what Ethereum provides. The utility and adoption of the blockchain technology is what drives the price of a digital asset. For Bitcoin that is store of value and it is (by far) the best fiat hedge there is right now; with diminishing risks and returns it has become the perfect digital gold. And to add to that; I believe the BTC price will still go up substantially given the upcoming inflation wave. However; it will no longer beat Ethereum, as Ethereum is the fundament for blockchain technology - just like Microsoft was to the personal computer.
Welcome to a new era of crypto; welcome to the era of Ethereum.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Comparison of 2017 vs 2020 Bull run on BTC and ETH - GreenCryptoHello All,
As we again seeing New ATH of the Bitcoins again and again let's see how 2020s bull run differs from 2017 bull and what the similarity and difference between them.
Above charts shows simple and and clear visualisation of how price of the two Major cryptocurrency BTC and ETH moved during 2017 bull run and how it is moving in current 2020 bull run. On the first look the major difference that wee see is when the price the price of the two coins started moving up with respect to other coin. When the bull run started in 2017 BTC price started moving up gradually while ETH slowly started recovering, when BTC hit near 20K ATH , ETH was just up around 100% compared to October price. Once BTC hit near 20K ATH it gradually started dropping which gave a good ETH as people started looking alternative to bitcoin , ETH started its run after that and hit 1400+ nearly a month after BTC hit near 20K ATH . so there was 1 month delay between ETH ATH from BTC ATH . Similar if you see 2020 bull run unlike 2017 ETH started moving up along with the BTC . Even though ETH did not hit new ATH , it is close to hitting new ATH .
This brings up the important that everyone has, whether ETH will continue moving upward once BTC starts dropping just like 2017 or will ETH drop along with the BTC . Only time can tell what will happen, however based on my experience i expect ETH to continue its rally even if BTC starts dropping , major reason being in 2020 lot of money got pumped into BTC which pushed BTC market cap to double of 2017, however for ETH the market-cap did not cross 2017 value and another reason being everyone is waiting alt season and emotion plays a big role in markets, once BTC starts dropping people start pumping money into Alts and which will push alts to new ATH .
Similarities between 2017 and 2020:
- Bull run started in November month
- BTC is the first coin to start pushing New ATH
- BTC broke its new ATH multiple times
Difference:
- ETH is following BTC rally instead of starting its only price rally
- Alts are not breaks it's new ATH
- No major money inflow to ALTs
Based 2017 bull run we can assume that this bull run will come to a halt on end of march but lets wait and see what new 2020 bull brings.
Thanks.
GreenCrypto
ETH probably will outperform BTC like 2017This is a monthly ETH to BTC ratio chart. It shows how ETH outperformed BTC in the last bull cycle and underperforms BTC in the last bear cycle. The ETH:BTC and BTC:ETH ratios are as follows:
Month/Yr ETH:BTC BTC:ETH
Nov 2015 0.00137 730
Mar 2016 0.0372 27
Dec 2016 0.007302 137
Jun 2017 0.1530 6.5
Sep 2019 0.01615 62
Sep 2020 0.04055 25
Dec 2020 0.002272 44
Jan 16, 2021 0.03315 30
The ETH:BTC ratio went generally up in the 2015-17 bull cycle. A well place ETH buy in Dec 2016 would have outperformed BTC by 20 to 1 in six months by June 2017. Could this happen again and ETH outperform BTC the next few months? The Elliot Wave has bottomed and recently moved up from .002272 last month to .03315 now. I believe the ETH:BTC ratio could rise again to 0.1530 like Jun 2017 later this year. If so, then ETH would outperform BTC 4.6 to 1.
Some are expecting $200,000 for the BTC price later this year. A ETH:BTC ratio of 6.5 would yield a $30000+ ETH price. Similarly, a $300,000 BTC price would yield a $46,000 ETH price.
SNX BullishEasier to read on my blog at medium
ideabuds.medium.com
As you can see Synthetix does have a long history of out performing BTC (green line) even in BTC breakout year of 2017, albeit that was when Synthetix was brand new and super tiny vs. after it has attained its high market cap rank. It has established a higher high, higher low trend vs. both BTC and ETH.
Most notably, news maybe driving this recent push. An article was published on a high price target (Over $1000 per SNX) which is why the token’s sentiment is now in full gear. That and I believe because in the environment we are in (BTC breaks above ATH) speculators want to use SNX to make shorts and hedges and leveraged positions, so the user demand not speculation demand is up on SNX as well. SNX allows the token holder to establish the 500% collateralized debt position to create leverage which the trader then uses to buy more BTC ETH (as they can at MKR or COMP but the SNX exchange allows users to speculate on whatever under the sun they want whereas COMP, AAVE, and MKR et al do not).
Here is another major aspect of why SNX and UMA among other future competitors in the derivatives space may go to the moon more than BTC or ETH.
Image for post
Now a few words on why all stocks are ETH or why BTC is limited to Gold etc.?
That is not really how I see this unfolding its just to make a point. ETH is more speculative than BTC like stocks are more speculative than gold (in a sense). Gold (unleveraged) is the traditional store of value, while ETH is more like a stock play on decentralized finance and crypto currency and the evolution of the entire space).
So no I don’t think currently ETH has a capture on all Stock → Crypto flows, just making a general analogy.
I believe capital flows will initially flow into BTC and ETH and BTC will remain the dominant crypto market cap until ETH perhaps takes over in the next 5 years as DeFi develops?
Timing this is difficult right now.
I don’t know when ETH will take over, but I do think BTC will need to stabilize in price and cease to give investors huge gains in order to incentivize risk taking into ETH / Alts. But that could be wrong perhaps ETH staking rewards which are now in effect is the turning point for ETH becoming the dominant currency in crypto?
I believe most money will flock to Bitcoin until we see wide adoption of BTC as a “reasonable” investment in the main stream though, and until then investors will think being cautious and not investing in alts is a “wise” thing to do. New entrants into crypto are what make markets rise, and so I believe new money will mostly come to BTC. The question is is will old money stay in BTC or will it jump into ETH & Alts as new money takes the BTC at high prices from them? If this waterfall is 1 to 1 BTC plateaus and ETH sky rockets?
To answer that we must look at stock to flows, and TVL vs market cap for coins gaining large shares of market cap and apply some micro coin economics to forecast the beta of various Alts.
How much supply is left on the exchange? What is the flow from BTC to a composite of Alts? BTC dominance relative to money flows is going to be a key indicator and we will need to chart that trend and look at resultant betas. Perhaps the best way is to simply chart Alt/BTC and Alt/ETH, and use a composite of DeFi coins index as the Alt and then use actual technical analysis rather than adding up supply numbers. That is what I’ve done above, and I think until the math is easy and data is available it is what I have to go by.
Let’s consider the medium run future where crypto is accepted as legitimate and not idiotic, but perhaps not fully adopted in an “all fiat goes to zero” scenario - you still have dinosaur boomers conducting business / trading on CME futures exchanges. What does that look like? Why does a futures trader leave the CME group and come to synthetix.exchange? What will that experience be like for him? Won’t it be similar to learning how to use email and pay bills online instead of writing checks? How will he learn it? Reading whitepapers and really being comfortable will take time. This is a much deeper and more realistic view of how to view the evolution. That being said, if pricing trends are already being shown in the market we are in the adoption curve in a place where we can make money on it, its not a wait for people to find it kind of a play. It’s here. It’s now.
BTC ETH and SNX will all do well I believe as investments but the extent SNX is able to really establish and maintain long-term upward trend lies in its ability to create a moat and not lose market share to competing derivative exchanges / coins. It must allow users (traders) the ability to do something they just can’t do on other crypto exchanges and both it and its competitors must be able to offer something the boomer cant do on traditional exchanges. I think there is potential for that, but I don’t totally understand SNX yet to say if it does that currently or not. To me, it’s just an idea and a narrative that the market is buying, but let’s go with it and research it as it rises. What I do see is the market is recognizing it as an asset they want to bet on likely because they see it as the beginning of a new bull market for DeFi as supported by it’s the leader to fully recover from the September Defi bubble pop, even stronger than Chain Link, which has not fully recovered ($12.50 from a peak at $20).
This is starting to seem like SNX may be THE story as Chain Link used to be, which is exactly why it’s important to perhaps not hodl long-term positions in alts, but to make sure you capture some gains and redistribute based on relative performance and charting. Crypto investors / traders are fickle and the capital moves from coin to coin faster than anywhere in the world.
BTC.D a study caseBTC dominance (or that of any other altcoin) is nothing more than the portion of BTC's market cap versus the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market. While the value of a token depends on the total number of tokens, dominance only depends on two factors: the liquidity of the token and the total liquidity.
But why is dominance an important parameter? Because dominance has proven over time to vary characteristically depending on the phase of the market cycle. This applies not only to BTC dominance but also to ETH and altcoin dominance.
(In this case, when we talk about altcoin dominance, we are excluding the dominance of ETH and USDT.)
That said, dominance increases if:
The liquidity entering BTC is greater than the liquidity entering the other projects;
The liquidity leaving BTC is smaller than the liquidity leaving the other projects;
The liquidity leaving the other projects is channeled into BTC;
Dominance decreases if:
The liquidity entering BTC is smaller than the liquidity entering the other projects;
The liquidity leaving BTC is greater than the liquidity leaving the other projects;
The liquidity leaving BTC is channeled into the other projects;
Dominance remains the same if:
The liquidity entering BTC is equal to that entering the other projects;
The liquidity leaving BTC is equal to that leaving the other projects;
There is yet another scenario to consider. There are times when BTC channels liquidity into stablecoins without this being comparable to the situation when BTC channels liquidity into altcoins. Typically, BTC channels liquidity into altcoins during periods of euphoria, where the intention is to distribute profits previously obtained in BTC into projects with higher potential returns. On the other hand, when BTC channels liquidity into stablecoins, it is associated with periods when security is sought during corrections (hence, we exclude USDT from the equation in comparative charts, as it is the largest and most important stablecoin).
These scenarios do not happen in isolation, which is why it is not easy to associate liquidity movements in the cryptocurrency market with exact phenomena.
However, we can always speculate and seek some support in the past.
Although altcoins have existed since 2011, there is only a record of BTC dominance charts since 2013. At that time, BTC dominance shared the total market cap with 30 other projects. By the end of 2014, this number had risen to 500. During this time, BTC dominance was never really challenged until the first bull market following the creation of ETH. This is the first cycle we will analyze.
Given the high value of BTC dominance after the peak of the first bull market, an increase in dominance due to the capital flight from altcoins to BTC was not observed. In this case, such a comparison is impossible.
Already at the beginning of the bull market in September 2015, BTC gains dominance:
The same was observed after the post-bull market bottom in 2017. As the price started to recover, BTC dominance increased:
The same has been observed in the current cycle; after the bottom was formed, Bitcoin's price has risen along with an increase in its dominance:
We can conjecture that when BTC forms a bottom, the market sentiment is one of extreme fear, leading investors to seek refuge in BTC. In the first two cases, we can see that after this period of increase, BTC enters another period of consolidation/correction, during which BTC tends to lose dominance to altcoins. This phenomenon occurs (hypothetically) because:
- Some investors sell BTC to take profits;
- Some distribute the profits made in BTC across alts that have remained at lows since the bear market;
- Some, experiencing losses, sell BTC after the recent rise to minimize their losses;
- Alts, depressed after the bear market and without significant gains, do not follow the decrease in BTC dominance, gaining ground instead.
Now let's compare the BTC price against USD with the dominance of BTC, ETH, and all alts excluding USDT and ETH, during the last two peaks and the period between them:
Although it was more noticeable during the last peak, in both instances, BTC dominance reached its peak before the BTCUSD pair hit its top. The peak in BTC dominance is characterized by the bottoming of all altcoins (excluding USDT and ETH) and the subsequent rally.
Despite each BTC peak having its own unique characteristics, the relationship between dominances has remained relatively consistent depending on the phase of the cycle.
If we divide the same time frame by the phases of the cycle:
We cannot observe the accumulation/expansion phase preceding the 2017 peak, making it difficult to precisely define the start of the blow-off top phase for that year. The only clear difference between both peaks is the behavior of ETH dominance: during the first blow-off top, ETH dominance fell while altcoins rose, whereas in the second peak, BTC dominance increased while altcoins also rose.
From a technical standpoint, we currently see a series of relatively equal lows in altcoin dominance, which could lead to a reversal when altcoin dominance drops and clears out all the liquidity from this zone:
As we can see from the previous cycle, this is exactly what happened:
(The dashed vertical lines mark the last two peaks).
From the 2017 peak to the blow-off top of the next cycle, the price steadily declined. Eventually, the price retraced and consolidated during BTC's retracement/accumulation period:
This accumulation created several lows that the price used to reverse the trend at the blow-off top.
As we can see, the altcoin chart is currently forming the same consolidation structure after the decline from the last BTC peak.
The trend in this chart is for the previous cycle's lows to be surpassed while the highs are not:
However, we can see that the price is far from the previous cycle's lows and relatively close to the highs, which was not the case in the last cycle.
Why is this? We can speculate that the growth of projects like Solana (which have taken significant market cap from ETH and BTC) makes the altcoin market (excluding ETH) less volatile, thereby retaining more market cap across all alts even during a bear market.
An interesting fact is the importance of the 26% level in altcoin dominance:
Speculating on the potential market cap for altcoins during a blow-off top, how likely is it that altcoins will significantly capture market cap from the two major projects that saw ETF approvals this year? To what extent might we expect a capitulation of altcoins given the current attention and interest in Solana?
Regardless of these considerations, from a technical standpoint, it is not expected that altcoins will see their dominance surge without the recent consolidation lows being decisively broken. Such a breakdown could occur, as seen previously, during BTC’s expansion phase, when its dominance increases abruptly, pushing the rest of the market’s dominance downward.
On the monthly timeframe, the price is being supported by a +OB (Order Block) within a +FVG (Fair Value Gap):
Drawing a parallel channel, we can see that the price also found support and reacted at the median of this channel.
Given the explanation above, it seems to me that the most important metric at this moment for determining the start of BTC's expansion and the subsequent blow-off top is this altcoin chart, along with BTC dominance.
:// BTCUSDT BTCUSD BTCUSDC #BTC #ETH #WBTC #WETHthis order block from 18 to 28 BTC is when the
crypto market cap doubled then tripled
with alts leading the way then ETH, as
people made money and dreamed of lambos and moon
rides they, for the most part esp on the retail side, did not want to take profits....> enter DeFi
this was a way to lock of some of these alt tokens this "next btc"
was their ticket, so staking it for aggressive returns
was a win win.
A LOT of money got locked in DeFi
and other stagnate pools of liquidity mostly subsidized and not
sustainable.
May to june was the real ride with jan 2022 defi leading the way started to make an exit in mass and the market really dumped.
as liquidity gets split up over multiple blockchains, used in micro banking techniques that are not sustainable, combined with rising eth price and network activity made the ever waiting and mostly unavoidable bottle neck exit ramp called the ethereum blockchain... ie if you want to move out of whatever esp some pool etc somewhere its a multi step process that always involves eth and or btc at some point. even rapped eth or weth/wbtc is a way to tap into major liquidity sources needed for these transaction and multi step swaps.
that blue box
is the level that defi and alts with eth as the gateway built during this market tripling. We see the dominance of that thick darker green trend line in the lower screen> is the ETH/Crypto Market Cap chart. >every time we have watched the market dump we see this chart dominate compared to the others crypto market charts (NOTE eth market cap dominance chart mirrors and or in that 2nd dump out of 3 big ones, dark green started to pop up but lighter green ETH.D was the one that popped out this dump BUT/AND started the inverse mirror action of dark green. (MARKET EXITING IN MASS) That’s the real clue (IF THOSE TO START TO DOMINATE AND then or GO inverse RUN. ) that thick green dark green b1t(h, when set at the same % price scale as the rest of the crypto market (eth btc defi alts market cap eth.d btc.d defi.d total crypto market cap) is what u see down in that mess of lines
Note that as we have watched this market mature or a stronger retail and funds really start to enter crypto markets _lol_ (big dumb retard-retail-the-giant, in some cases _ I thought I was bad in my degen ALT days, lol turns out the guys who run the CEL DeGen day trading team and some of the biggest exchanges and funds, turns out where a million times worse then the most degen of any of use little fish lol smilez.) basically we see a stronger alt and defi presence in the market charts, esp at the end of a good sustained rally. We still see that ugly green D1LD0 punch through but not as dominate as in the past.
What we r seeing is As people take profits or and exit the market eth and btc dominance or in general, eth then and btc market cap swells. These, are I believe, the classic crypto false pumps. Like now we r seeing the market line up for a nice run BUT then again that green b1t@c is sticking her d1(k up so be careful here. I also DO NOT LIKE, on the lower mash of crypto market price action charts, the rejection off the blue box ( that is where defi and alts then eth helped triple the market as btc doubled it. This happened in a one month time span give or take…. Those same kats may want out combined with many layers of other new money to old factors. X this with any nudge of market world news panic and BOOM dump
we recently dropped like a stone through this same level (the blue box, lower screen) and as we now see an obvious rejection telling us, no real interest in that trading block esp for alts
from here next week or so I think we see the alt market pump in fits and starts as btc and eth go sideways and that “kinda up” until some type of out and out rejection
btc 23500 eth 13 ish 1250 range.as bag hold continues to ensue and the last of the alt and defi markets bleed out through eth etc look for btc 12000 14500 and eth 675 to 850 scoop. It will happen fast so set those buy orders and or get ready to exit quickly. Solid alts looking to eventually take real positions in or for the brave get in and out now-ish :// ENJ MANA SOL all need to drop a bit more… anything that went recent parabolic and has not traded back down in that dildo neck that rocketed her up in the first place…. Wait D1cks get soft and those blocks need to see trade action before true support is made. SUSHI 1INCH all the dexs ZKS LRC n other layer 2 dexs will kill if the cross chain get a bit easier and safer to navigate. enter COSMOS’s ATOM token. ARBITRIM Optimism.io OP token UNI after a cool off. AAVE same same LEND MKR YFI SNX OCC ADA DOT some MATIC I guess. BAND lol ADA ALGO stand off for suck the gout D on ramp and walled garden blockchains for mainstream folks n co’s FANTOM YFI SUSHI all kinda a steal CRV on n on n on w3 g0
Do altcoins follow ETH more than BTC?Before today's cryptocurrency dip, BTC was continuing to return to a price near 42K, a near full recovery to the price from merely a few days ago.
Despite this, almost all alts (altcoins, i.e., cryptocurrency alternatives to BTC) have barely recovered 50% of their own respective prices from this same time period just a few days ago. So why the drastic difference? My theory: ETH
To illuminate this, I have mapped out the market caps of BTC, ETH, and every other cryptocurrency in the chart above. As one can see, the total market caps of ETH and the market caps of all other non-BTC/ETH cryptocurrencies (i.e., the remaining alts) have been at almost precisely the same rates of change since 2018 much more closely than to BTC. This looks to have continued during ETH's latest run in 2021. However, "all good uptrends must come to a retracement", which looks to have now started for ETH possibly resulting in similar drops for all other alts with it in my opinion.
The reasoning for such a phenomenon has often been explained multiple different ways, such as
- "all crypto, not just ETH, drops at more dramatic news such as the latest China ban"
- "precipitous drops in BTC price result in people taking out larger amounts until things subside"
- "whale manipulation causes all prices to drop to enable themselves to buy at smaller prices"
or the reasoning I generally prefer:
- "whereas BTC is a store of value, most other alts either use, are built upon, or support ETH and/or its smart contracts for usages such as utility tokens, DeFi, etc. and hence it has a larger effect on the market as a whole"
Regardless the reasoning, it looks like the trend of ETH might help anyone who watches a non-BTC cryptocurrency trend. However, despite what seems to me to be a stronger correlation, ETH has always followed the trend for BTC rather closely (as can clearly be seen in the chart). Hence, one should still keep in mind BTC for any dramatics that could influence ETH either positively or negatively, particularly as to which direction trends might head in the longer-term.
Also, in case you are curious how I calculated the market caps for BTC, ETH, and all other cryptocurrencies, check out my previous post for details:
And as always, this is not meant as any type of financial advice, but is just my opinion for an interesting trend. But please like or comment if you agree or have any thoughts.
ETH MARKET CAP CHART n ETH.D chart://maybe just turn it back offeven with BTC dropn hard the BTC Market Dominance chart went up same here with the eth market cap n eth.D charts _BTC N ETH black wholes infull effect
om days like this maybe just turn that computer rite back off…
_even with BTC dropn hard the BTC Market Dominance chart went up.
The market dumped 330 plus BILLION USD in about 4hrs. thats impressive consider'n BTC wasnt at 500 Billion untill_ SAT DECEMBER 26th 2020
MY point is if you look at the BTC market cap chart a good portion of that market cap like 220 billion of that drop was in Bitcoin. eth dipped some in market cap n price but not like BTC
_The same goes for the market dominance eth n btc charts. WE see a sharp drop in BTC n market followed hard but the bounce looks like it came quick which is GREAT as well as the inflows of BTC N esp ETH (ETH just keeps lookn stronger n stronger)
_MY worrie, at least short term is that im not sure how much spine _ heart _ whatever this new retail wave of crypto has. IE how much pain can this new retail group new or newer to crypto group take before they sell, what projects_ ALT COINs brake week first, fastest n hardest (is what we watching in times like this.)
_IM NOT SURE i was clear enough at least on how we feel on our end but BTC N ETH are about to take over the show for a bit so dont be surprised to see some alt profits black whole-d by the BTC monster n his quickly growing wild cousin ETHeReuM. On the other side good dip ops as well as seeing if ur fav project has the stones to still be a thing next year or in this space maybe next month. IT isnt enough to only have utility in the rite situation in an easy to use easy to adapt type of thing but u also need swag to carry the hype to get any traction, _unless ur just always blazing trails n very few in crypto or anywhere can do that consistently.
_THIS leads me to my next point and something ive had shoved in my face recently via XRP n DODGE smilez lol esp with dodge there is no active or really any utility. all 100 percent hype from a few tweets mems and half a$$ed organization of online groups like Wallstreet bets run'n up the score to mind blown life changing get ur pussy ate for a week or she give u head in grandmas bathroom type money... lol for real, every time i forget im forced to remember, THE POWER OF THE HYPE... it also reminds me no matter how solid, game changer, whatever_ ur project is remember why u got into CRYPTO yes u need a wide net for all the reasons above_BUT_. _FOR me n Mine, it was many reasons. LONG STORY SHORT we felt like most of us, we missed the BTC boat (LOL AGAIN PERSPECTIVE BTC WAS AT 10K AT THE TIME) so we wanted to catch up n make a few 100x gains no problem n then buy btc n eth. lol that was the plan but what happened is we FOmOEd in and lost 35% of our small n most of our actual real world money in a few days one bad week really. we realized we had no idea what the h3ll we were doing and still mostly don’t (smilez) but we learned and we always call it how we see it. we share our wins n losses and we k33p tryn to get better and and and we learned sooo much along the way.
_we have stopped getn alts n started takn profits last 2 weeks into eth n btc n some rebuys_stable coin_side line monies n thinkn about some new ones_projects but all in all its about btc n eth, for us at least. IM NOT sayn alts won’t continue to melt faces but we wanted to get back to our roots,
_THE market is getting smarter and maturing. we see A LOT of volatility around option days now in crypto. we see some projects pumps even when btc drops and not just one or two outliers but a decent portion meaning there is ecosystem that can flourish when btc is dropn etc. All this healthy non cannibal like financial growth is a must… but the volatility is still here, as we all saw this weekend. the liquidity sources are many and this space has little to no rules and def no 1-800 support or complaint line to call when it goes bad. u on ur own… so whoever u are where ever u are just try n remember why u got into crypto in the first place _whether it was financial freedom in a communist country where u get killed for going on the wrong, no regime controlled internet to ur a-h0ie cuzin, rich from btc he forgot he bought n u found keys for on an old piece of paper on the floor when drinking bears in his garage to everything in between _get back to ur roots. _always respect the pump but never follow it. (buy the rumor sell the news type thang) _trust ur reads n try to stick to ur half a$$ plan _for us thats always ALWAYS mor3 BTC ETH
Then even if u have the rite blend of utility – hype – swag – adaptability – project team_esp as they grow. (many projects just small teams sometimes just 4 or 5 people so scaling could get tricky and tech personalities im sure like any innovative space will be all over the spectrum so strong above qualities and team leaders etc etc will be a must as crypto begins to cross over mainstream n we see acquisitions, mergers and all the drama that comes with this growth. These cracks in the foundation will begin to show. It’s a big growing space so we definitely believe in wide big_ but QUALITY nets
BtcBTCbtc
ETHethETH
Not in order but tiered in groups
ALGO CEL SWAP ADA VET ZKS UNI AAVE REN n any solid defi project (need to look into the yearn team n curve etc etc asap)
DMST RAMP STMX n deep diving on our new alt list below or around the 500 rank in market cap_bigger risk bigger gains but again would stick with the mainstream stuff for a bit and ur true HODLes u believe in like rite now we HUGE ON CEL SWAP ZKS n anything keepn up or and developing into n on layer 2
CRO CHSB VGX FTX_FTT N any other centralized exchanges keepn up to the race to the cheapest fees as layer 2 s cheep swaps etc begin to dominate and other projects and tech begin to adapt. REGARDLESS OF MY RAMBLES THESE CENTRALIZED EXCHANGES like coinbase unfortunately will be the first step for new retail entering into crypto BUT the trend is switching to DOAs like uniswap 1inch sushi pancakeswap ZKSwap etc etc THIS is due to accessing layer 2 via side chains and other forms of tech that is quickly developing and expanding IE this means what use to cost us 30 to 100 usd to swap on uniswap etc now cost less then 1usd or around there (minus the market moving spread_which sometimes can be a positive gain trade or loss depending on how volatile n what direction its going n u buy’n) zkswap and even uniswap via V3 n this new token that allows for limit trades on uniswap etc etc_ UNILAYER. All in all_ the game IS CHANGING. Imagine when the wallstreet bets mentality gets ahold of the concept of uniswap n DAOs in general.
Happy hunting_ stay strong stay positive and never forget, get da bag…
Have a good weekend ya all
