Get started

Search in ideas for "Bitcoin"

#Bitcoin is in a 14-day Range; will BTC hold above $28.7k?Past Performance of Bitcoin BTC prices are inside a $3.5k trade range for two straight weeks with clear support at $28.7k. Technically, BTCUSDT is within a bear breakout formation, and the current pattern is a bear flag. Therefore, until there is a definite breakout, either above $32k or $28.7k, traders should stay on the sidelines waiting for trend definition. At spot rates, BTC is stable on the last trading day, adding two percent. #Bitcoin Technical Analysis BTC bulls have failed to close above $32k and the May 11 bear bar. As such, prices are still trending within a bearish shadow until there is a clear breakout. A welcomed close above $32k will signal the end of the bear run, with May 9 and 11 bars as climactic. On the flip side, a dashing close below last week's lows could usher in another leg down, possibly pushing BTC back to early 2021 territory. What to Expect from #BTC? Overall, traders are confident as sentiment shifts. Still, as BTCUSD moves horizontally inside a bear candlestick, price action is skewed for sellers. Before traders commit, a clear close on either side of the range would define the immediate and medium-term price trend. Resistance level to watch out for: $32k Support level to watch out for: $28.7k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
#Bitcoin Stabilizes, #BTC Resistance Level at $40.5kPast Performance of #Bitcoin Bitcoin prices are fairly stable at spot rates, swinging within a bear breakout formation as sellers remain firm. Technically, bears have the upper hand provided prices range within last week's trade range, as per the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart. In upcoming sessions, the reaction at $40.5k and around $37.3k—marking this week's lows, would define the short-term trend. Bitcoin Technical Analysis BTC is within a bear breakout formation as per the formation in the daily chart, aligning with the lower BB. The inability of BTC bulls to build on recent gains and float above $40.5k is negative for optimistic bulls. The immediate term price action is defined by last week's bear bar of April 26 of which the wide-ranging bar forced BTC lower in a bear breakout pattern. Aggressive, risk-off traders can unload on every retest, targeting $37.3k and later $35k if prices continue dumping in line with last week's trend. Overall, the upside appears limited and bulls exhausted. What to Expect from #BTC? The BTCUSDT price action is still in a bear breakout pattern despite solid fundamentals. This overview is valid as prices are below $40.5k and range inside the April 26 candlestick. Resistance level to watch out for: $40.5k Support level to watch out for: $37.3k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
#Bitcoin Recovers, #BTC Prices Held Below $40.5kPast Performance of #Bitcoin Bitcoin is stable in the last trading week. Technically, bears remain in control in a breakout formation. The April 26 bear bar defines the immediate trend. As sellers are in control, traders may seek to unload on every correction towards April 11 highs at around $40.5k. Bitcoin Technical Analysis From an effort versus result perspective, BTC bears have the upper hand. Although market participants are upbeat, traders are yet to reverse the losses of April 26. Besides, there have been lower lows in the past few trading days as bars begin to lean along the lower BB. Technically, this is a bearish development pointing to confident sellers. Therefore, as long as BTCUSDT prices trend inside last week's trade range, sellers may unload, targeting $35k in the immediate term in a bear trend continuation pattern. However, a surge above $40.5k and back into the April 11 trade range below $45 could embolden optimistic bulls. What to Expect from BTC? Bitcoin buyers, even amid the sell-off, remain upbeat. Nonetheless, sellers are in the driving seat, provided prices are below $40.5k and $45k in the medium term. Sharp losses below last week's lows may trigger a sell-off, forcing the coin back to Q1 2022 lows. Resistance level to watch out for: $40.5k Support level to watch out for: $35k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
#Bitcoin in a Bear Breakout, #BTC Resistance at $40.6k Past Performance of #Bitcoin Although Bitcoin bulls are struggling against firm bears, BTC prices are surprisingly stable at spot rates against the USDT, soaking the selling pressure of April 26. The coin, nonetheless, remains in a bear breakout formation. It is within the bear bar of April 26, moving in a tight trade range. Bitcoin Technical Analysis As per the BTCUSDT candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, sellers are in the driving seat. Sharp gains of early this week were quickly reversed on April 26 as the wide-ranging high volume bear bar forced prices below $38. Though #BTC is steady when writing, sellers are in control. Notably, prices are inside the bear candlestick of April 26. As such, every high offers an entry for sellers to unpack, targeting $35k—or lower, in the immediate term in a bear breakout pattern from the extended consolidation from April 11. Unexpected gains above $40.6k may lift BTC back towards the upper range of the recent sideways movement at around $45k. What to Expect from #BTC? #Bitcoin adoption is relatively high vis-à-vis other crypto assets. This is a net positive. However, after solid gains in the past two years, BTC appears to be overstretched and may retrace in coming months. Resistance level to watch out for: $40.6k Support level to watch out for: $35k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
#Bitcoin Tumbles, Sell-off May force #BTC to $35k Past Performance of Bitcoin The thrill following Bitcoin's fundamentally-triggered upswing quickly fizzled on April 26 when BTC fell below $39k to retest last week's lows. Currently, BTC is down a massive five percent versus the USDT and on the cusp of registering new April lows in a bear trend continuation pattern after an extended distribution period traced to mid-April. #Bitcoin Technical Analysis There is a bearish engulfing bar visible in the daily chart pointing to intense liquidation pressure. Of note, gains posted in the late New York session on April 25 were sharply reversed as sellers ran riot. With the April 26 bear bar wide-ranging and backed by relatively high trading volumes, the odds of sellers taking over are high. Sellers may begin unloading if #BTC prices fail to recover above $40k, especially if prices slide below $38k. In that likelihood, Bitcoin may easily tank to $35k—or worse, registering new 2022 lows. What to Expect from #BTC? Sellers are in control as per the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart. The recovery back to last week's trade range offered a chance for aggressive sellers to liquidate and mirror the trend set on April 11. Per the current setup, price action favors sellers provided prices are below the psychological $40k mark. Resistance level to watch out for: $40k Support level to watch out for: $35k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
#Bitcoin Prices Boxed in a $3k Range, #BTC Bears in ControlPast Performance of Bitcoin BTC prices continue to consolidate at spot rates, boxed within the April 11 bear candlestick as cool-off continues. Technically, #Bitcoin bears are under pressure despite the higher highs versus the lower BB. As long as prices are steady above $38k, buyers stand a chance. However, a comprehensive break above April 11 highs would signal a new shift in trend favoring buyers. Bitcoin Technical Analysis From the daily chart, sellers appear to be in charge. Ideally, buyers can begin buying the dips if there is a solid, high volume close above $42k and April 11 highs. This breakout will draw more bulls and reverse the bear breakout formation pattern of early April, defining a new price trajectory for the coin. On the flip side, despite the confidence exuded by traders, a dump below $38k may create panic. A sell-off could easily see #BTC fall to $36.5k—a key reaction point in April 2022—and later Q1 2022 lows, in a bear breakout continuation pattern. What to Expect from Bitcoin? BTC is consolidating, stuck in a tight trade range defined by the April 11 bear bar. Still, buyers are confident. Nonetheless, this outlook will be squashed if prices melt below $38k. Resistance level to watch out for: $42k Support level to watch out for: $38k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
Bitcoin Defying Gravity, but will BTC Clear $42.5k?Past Performance of #Bitcoin Following gains of April 18, Bitcoin bulls added to their longs yesterday, pushing prices above the $41k level. Based on the formation in the daily chart, BTC bulls may find support in the short term. Still, since #BTC prices are inside the trend-defining bear bar of April 11, traders may have to wait and check how prices react at April 11 high. A comprehensive close above this mark may be the base for possibly another swing towards $44.5k or better in the short term. Bitcoin Technical Analysis #Bitcoin has support at spot rates as BTC trades at a one-week high, above a $2k range. The current formation seems to favor bulls though sellers are technically in control from an effort versus result perspective. Aggressive traders may load on dips as long as prices are above $39k, with targets at $42k in the short term. Further gains may offer entries for risk-averse traders targeting $44.5k and later $48.5k. If not, and prices cool off below $39k, BTC may slide to $38k and $33k in a bear trend continuation pattern. What to Expect from Bitcoin? Bitcoin is inching higher after a six-day sideways movement inside the April 11 bear bar. Even though bulls are confident, sellers are in control, provided BTC is below $42.5k. Resistance level to watch out for: $42.5k Support level to watch out for: $38k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Long
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
#Bitcoin Recovers as #BTC Bulls Clear $40kPast Performance of Bitcoin Bitcoin found a reprieve in intraday time frames during the NY session. Despite initial fears, Bitcoin prices pulled higher above the $40k level and back into last week’s tight trade range defined by the April 11 bear candlestick. BTC is stable at press time, adding three percent in the last 24 hours and at break even against determined sellers week-to-date. Bitcoin Technical Analysis The BTC bull bar of April 18 had a long lower wick pointing to buying pressure in the NY session. From the daily chart, the recovery was stellar and buyers appear to be back in control after initial fears. Although prices may be stable at spot rates, the snap back to bull trend and back into the April 11 trade range could trigger more demand in the short term. Accordingly, while the move is positive, risk-averse traders can abstain until there is a total reversal of April 11 losses, giving control back to buyers. On the flip side, provided BTC prices are above $38k, aggressive traders may load the dip, aligning with gains of April 18, with targets at last week’s highs and $42.5k in the immediate term. What to Expect from BTC? Bitcoin is back into last week’s range as per the formation in the daily chart. Provided BTC is above $38k, the coin may print higher in the immediate term. Resistance level to watch out for: $42.5k Support level to watch out for: $38k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
1
Bitcoin - A weekly viewGood morning my fellow Bitcoinistas! I'm sharing my weekly chart to see how close the Bitcoin price follows the past 4 year trends. So far it looks very probable that Bitcoin will top out once touching the upper red average lines some time in early to mid 2022. If the trend continues the price should then bottom out about a year after this peek which would be a great time to accumulate again. Of course if Bitcoin enters into a "Super Cycle" this go round then all bets are off. The next stop would be the moon. :0) So basically if this chart works long term then profits should be taken at the upper bounds and new accumulation should happen at the lower bounds. I hope this chart finds you well. Cheers! BBS Out.
BNC:BLXLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
Bitcoin CME futures painting a cleaner pictureBased on my previous idea which I just updated too, BTC was going to hit 42k sooner than later and the picture wasn't great. The fractal played out nicely and the current correction has been pretty large, potentially even the beginning of a bear market. However in my opinion there is a lot of support in the 38-42k zone which hasn't been fully retested yet. On several exchanges we haven't tested the previous ATH of 42k, but got very close. Now the fractal indicates consolidation, another leg lower and then bottom. A bottom that could lead to 53k before we can tell whether we go up or down. There are tons of negatives for BTC and a lot fewer negatives for alts, but the truth is that I can't tell whether we are in bear market or not... not yet. There have been a few indicators that showed that could have potentially been the top, but it seems very weird based on previous cycles for this to really be the top. Maybe Bitcoin is done as other altcoins are stealing the show like Ethereum, Cardano and so on... along with the fact that there are too many longs, Bitcoin is attacked left and right from the media, and Elon definitely doesn't help. Now on the CME it is much clearer what has happened. We got up too fast, we never had proper corrections, many weird moves happened during the weekends and we had tons of double bottoms so there were many longs that were never shaken out. Once trading started on CME today the market tanked after getting rejected at the double bottom (seriously 3 double bottoms without an SFP - meaning the second low wasn't lower than the first one at the same level). Link with the previous bounce after a very similar move, the double gap at 60k was filled very nicely and then we went lower. A similar level right now is 53k, but will probably come once we retested the breakout zone on CME and hit the S3 monthly and S3 weekly, which are slightly below the 200 DMA. That would be the perfect shakeout and we'd hit such strong support that the market could fly up to 53k to fill what is like a 'CME gap'. Currently the 46-49k zone is resistance and the gap might be filled soon, but I doubt the correction is fully over yet. BTC is in a no trade zone for me at 46 as I either want to go long lower or short higher (long 38-42k short 53-55k)
CME:BTC1!
by BitcoinMacro
The Bitcoin Bull Flag - Either it will, or it won'tBitcoin has clearly broken out of this Bull Flag and if the close on 1/31/2021 stays above the flag the price should continue North. There are a lot of opinions out there with all that is going on but I'm sticking to my faith in where Bitcoin is ultimately going. Since Michelle Saylor thinks the same way I believe I am in good company. This next coming week should be very exciting for Bitcoin. Are you in or out? I'm in!!!! Good luck. BBS Out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
4
Bitcoin - The NEXT leg UP!Hello my fellow Bitcoinistas! Boy times are getting exciting are they not? Now that we have hit blue skies there is nothing but the current price action to give us clues as to where we are and where we are going. For those of you day trading I pray for you. You will most likely get whipsawed in and out of thousands of dollars. For all you fellow hodlers out there I know you are smiling ear to ear at this point. Be that as it may, if the pink line on this chart does not get violated to the downside I think we are basing for another move NORTH! Do I care either way? NO. After 8 years of following and buying Bitcoin dips my DCA is well below the 4 year moving average at this point. In other words YOU CAN'T PUSH BITCOIN LOW ENOUGH TO CHASE ME OFF MY HODL POSITION! That, in my opinion, should be EVERYBODY'S goal. Keep buying the dips and building as low a DCA price as you can. When Bitcoin runs away from that level you can sleep well at night with a big smile on your face. If you can't sleep at night it is probably because: 1. You don't understand Bitcoin and you are just throwing money at the wall and hoping it will stick. OR 2. You are playing with leverage and you know any major swing can wipe you out. OR 3. You have too much on the line that YOU CAN NOT AFFORD to keep tied up for the next 2 years. If this is YOU, fix the problem. 1. Educate yourself 2. Stop using leverage trades 3. Only put in a little at a time so that you won't miss it if the price drops for a while. If the price does drop 5-10% but a little more. Rinse and repeat. Good luck everybody. I wish you all the very best outcome no matter how you decide to play this game. BBS Out!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
1
Bitcoin - EVERYBODY wants the price to go lowerAnd that is why it probably won't. The Bulls that didn't get enough want the price lower so they can back up the truck and load up more Bitcoin. The Bears that got left behind at $3,200 want the price lower so they can say "I told you so" and finally get some Bitcoin at a decent price. Yep, EVERYBODY wants the price to go lower for their own greedy reasons. Yes, I said greedy. The underlying reason everybody wants to see lower Bitcoin prices is not because they think it will fail but because THEY WANT MORE OF IT! So..... what happens when everybody wants the same thing? The market tends to do the opposite. If my count is correct we just completed Wave 4 and are starting Wave 5 UP! That means we have all seen the cheaper prices for Bitcoin and many of us said "No thanks, I'll wait" To each his own I guess. This is all just my opinion of course. You do what you want. Good luck! BBS out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
8
Bitcoin - A few possibilities....Good morning my fellow Bitcoinistas! I'm taking a long weekend and won't be back until next week so I thought I would post my current thoughts. As you know from my last post I think we are trying to complete a 5-3-5 Zig Zag to complete this complex correction. If true, waves 1 and 2 are complete. I've drawn what I believe to be two possibilities to finish the pattern. Keep in mind that wave 5 of either count could end at any time. It all depends on where Waves 3 and 4 end which has not been completely defined yet. The orange horizontal line at $9,100 is the 20 Week moving average and should act as support. I would not expect the price to stay below it for long. Also keep in mind that if my count is off it may be possible for wave 5 to end where the blue wave 3 is currently located on the chart at $9,100 which would also make sense. The bottom line is I think we are getting close to ending the overall correction. Good luck this weekend, see you next week! BBS out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
8
Bitcoin and the Stock to Flow ModelGood morning my fellow Bitcoinistas! Yesterday sucked. We took a big hit. So what do I do when my hypothesis is wrong? I start developing a new hypothesis. I went back through my collection of Bitcoin information and reviewed the Stock to Flow model again. I wish I had paid more attention to it sooner. I could have put a few more Satoshi in my stack. To the point: The current Stock to Flow model indicates that a fair market price for Bitcoin, right now, this week, is about $8,300 - $8,800 Where is the price right now? About $8,425 as of this writing. What does this indicate according to the model? The market is pricing Bitcoin about right according to the Stock to Flow model. What can we conclude? Prices well below this area are very undervalued while prices well above this area, right now, would be considered over valued. So the main conclusion for me is that if your Dollar Cost Average (DCA) is currently BELOW $9K your hodl position is looking good. If your DCA is way over $9K you may want to take any current price opportunities to continue to average it down. My DCA is well below $5K so that is not an issue for me but I sill added a little more in this price range. If we dip into the $7Ks I will do the same as the prices then will be extremely undervalued according to the Stock to Flow model. Below is a link to what I am talking about. Take some time to really understand the details and descriptions and you will see that although the price took a big hit now, it will continue to rise going forward. Several months to a year after the next halving the minimum fair market Stock to Flow value is over $100K. (baby blue and purple lines) Now who doesn't want to stick around to see that? :0) Have a great day. BBS out. " digitalik.net "
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
4
Bitcoin - A positive viewIt seems many have gone negative on Bitcoin with the recent plunge of the stock market. I've seen calls for $6K, $5K, Zero, etc. It happens EVERY TIME Bitcoin corrects. On this chart, however, I do see something a bit more positive. This is a 3 Days chart with a 30 bar moving average which is the equivalent of a Daily chart with a 90 day or 3 months moving average. If you follow the yellow line and compare it to the light blue moving average you will see that the price broke below the moving average around last September. Then around November it tested the average from the underside and got rejected falling back to the bottom dark blue trend line. Then in 2020 the price broke OVER the moving average and has just now come back down to test it from the top. As you can see, if this area around the moving average holds this would be a positive development for Bitcoin. I just wanted to point this out. You may now return to your previously scheduled FUD programming...... BBS out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
1
Bitcoin and the Mayer Multiple - Keeping it simpleGood morning my fellow Bitcoinistas! Today I want to take a quick look at something called the "Mayer Multiple". It is simply a multiple of the 200 day moving average. This guy named Mayer noticed that when Bitcoin was under 2.4 of the multiple Bitcoin was a good buy. Well, we are currently at 1.18 On my chart the purple average is a study I made that is 1.1 of the 200 daily moving average. The orange line is the 200 daily moving average. The dotted blue line is my long term FIB channel trend line. As you can see, we are currently in a very sweet buying opportunity. Also, not on this chart, the price is currently pinning through the 20 week moving average which is also a historical buying opportunity. The bottom line? I believe that anywhere from the current price right now all the way down $9K is a tremendous opportunity for HODLers. If we spike down to the 200 daily MA around $8.5K even better. Are much lower prices guaranteed? Nope. You take what you can get. I don't expect the price to go much lower than about $9.3K (around blue dotted line) but even that is not a guarantee. If you are a day trader, swing trader, etc. do whatever you do best. But if you are a long term Holder I think now is a good time to start averaging in to a new long position if you don't already have one or add to an existing position if you do. Not advice, that's just what I've been doing. Good luck! BBS out. P.S. More info on the Mayer Multiple "https://mayermultiple.info/"
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
6
Bitcoin - The Double Three is complete! Or is it?Hello my fellow Bitcoinistas! I hope you enjoyed your long weekend for those of you that had one. I certainly did. :0) I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that the main correction is over. That's right, over. Unless this "Double Three" correction were to turn into a "Triple Three" correction which means we would need to tack on another X Wave followed by another smaller corrective pattern. I don't think this will be the case. I think the market has had about enough of this shit and is ready to move on. I know I am. If this last impulsive move up is the beginning of Wave 1 of the next 5 Wave move up then Wave 2 could retrace almost all the way back down to were wave 1 started. (Down by the blue Wave 5 and Y on this chart) It doesn't have to, I'm just staying it could retrace quite a bit and still not violate the rules. In other words I would not chase it. If I were looking to add to my longs I would wait for the pullback before I commit. That's not advice, that's just me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I don't see any other way to count it right now. I hope this post finds you all well and in the money. BBS out ! For more information about the "Double Three" look here: " www.elliottwave.net "
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
1
Bitcoin - Is the WXY correction about to end?Hello my fellow Bitcoinistas! Is it possible? Is this complex correction about to end? It could be. After reading up on "double three" corrections we have a Flat, followed by an (any three) X Wave, followed by a 5-3-5 ZigZag OR...…………… a TRIANGLE. Well, this crazy shit they call a chart looks more like a triangle forming than anything else. Do you agree? See the following link for an example " www.elliottwave.net " Scroll down to the section labeled "Combinations (double and triple threes) I'm still long since the beginning of time and plan to remain long no matter how this plays out. With BAKKT starting in a few weeks it's not time to get cold feet IMO. Good Luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
11
Bitcoin - Two possibilitiesGood morning my fellow Bitcoinistas! It looks like the pattern from my previous charts are playing out very well. A 3-3-5 Flat, X Wave, followed now by what looks to be a 5-3-5 Zig Zag. This chart zooms in on the Zig Zag to show how the count may play out. If Waves 1 and 2 are complete then we are currently in Wave 3. This Wave should complete soon IMO, and then we begin grinding out Wave 4 over the next day or so. The final Wave 5, however, is what most people are interested in. I have two possible targets on this chart circled in orange and marked with the yellow horizontal lines. The first target is around $9,000 as there is much support in that area and where many shorts may start to cover and many bulls begin scaling in long. The horizontal red line marks the CME futures gap everyone has been talking about forever. This seems like an obvious target but if we dip down that low I would expect us to overshoot it a bit. That's why I have the second lower target. This entire complex corrective move plays well into the BAKKT futures opening on September 23rd. I suspect they are taking full advantage of these lower prices and will continue to buy Over The Counter and possibly even on the down low through the Exchanges so long as they don't spook the sheep. They may even be using the CME futures to assist. Once they have loaded up their rocket ships with all the cheap Bitcoin they can get, the BAKKT futures open, and at that point I would see no reason to try to hold back prices any longer. Why? Would you invest hundreds of millions of dollars to create a platform to promote your newest safe haven asset and then shit all over it? At first I thought that may be their objective but in reality they need Bitcoin to succeed as much as we do. Where else are they going to store their wealth when all of the markets around the world begin to explode and fiat after fiat fails? No, this is their safe haven exit strategy in my opinion. Mine too and has been for years. They don't care about speed, smart contracts, defi apps, point of sale, etc. They care about scarcity, cryptographic security, decentralization, mobility, and the fact that their holdings cannot be counterfeit. All the qualities needed for the mega rich to stay mega rich. I plan to join them. BBS out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
11
Bitcoin, Altcoins and ... Crisis?For those that are following me on Twitter or Tradingview, you probably already know what I've been saying for some time. For those who don't, below I have all my recent ideas on Bitcoin, Altcoins, Central Banks, Bitcoin, Bonds, Gold and Stocks. Here are some key takeaways and updates Split your assets into USD, JPY, Gold and Bitcoin. For more risky stuff short European banks, buy silver, long gold stocks, long stocks that perform well in a recession and lend fiat on crypto exchanges. You can long bonds with good risk management. They are a bubble that I don't see popping soon, but could pop any time. To me they are like buying Bitcoin at 5-10k, so they clearly have room, but nobody knows when the music stops. As for Gold it is doing better than I expected, but for me to turn into a proper bull I'd like to see it clear 1560. For Bitcoin the timing was not right, but I informed people that I pretty much stayed out since 11800. Even all the way down I explain what I though was the best way to play it for those that are long only. Since I started longing at 10400 I made a few mistakes that took away some of my profits, but at least I escaped bad losses. To me it is all about increasing my BTC stash, but mainly through longing. Imagine how bearish things were, that even I, a mega bull realized that things were not right. Imagine that a guy that hates shorting had to short in order to hedge his BTC exposure. Too many bulls, too many longs and many other signs of the trend had changed and we were due for a drop. Managed to get a late average entry at 10800 on Huobi's quarterlies and I am ready to add more. I am all in on BTC and the best way for me to protect myself is hedging (not selling spot). In my opinion the current situation is very bearish. I don't think we are going to put a local bottom right at 10k. We've lost pretty much all important support levels, momentum is pretty bearish, the long/short ratios are only growing and alts are back into falling both in BTC and USD terms like in July. The best zone for a drop right now is at 7800-8500. For me to turn bullish without seeing that area tested, I'd need to see 11500 broken... We went up too fast, too soon and the Daily RSI hasn't been oversold since Dec 2018. Altcoins were performing well in BTC terms during the Bitcoin drop, until things snapped. I literally updated that idea a few minutes before some of them fell really hard. The reason is that many of these alts are overleveraged in USD terms, so when Bitcoin goes down, it drags them with it. Initially they fall less in USD terms by having a relief rally in BTC terms... until most retest their recently broken support levels in BTC terms, while slowly breaking their USD support levels. After a certain level things get ugly and this isn't the first time this has happened. Not surprisingly it once again happened right at the moment that Bitcoin Dominance was retesting an old high. This shows that the altcoin bear market is still strong. Now let's get into Bitcoin's role in the current macro environment. The reality is that it is not correlated with any other asset class and anyone who says the opposite is just spewing random nonsense while trying to find a narrative based on his beliefs. Bitcoin whales, market makers and other retail participants other than institutional investors, have pretty much nothing to do with traditional finance. Most people here have survived through insane drops and mad volatility. Most are here to protect themselves from a potential crisis. Very few of them hold other assets, and if they do, then Bitcoin and cryptos are probably just a small fraction of their portfolios. Most Bitcoin investors are either really well off or have very little left from. At the same time many traditional investors have started viewing Bitcoin as a Digital Gold or an uncorrelated asset with tremendous potential that isn't going away. Finally, in my opinion altcoins have more to fear as they are way more speculative than Bitcoin. With potential harsh regulations in environment where banks are losing control, and all the current negativity around them, they are coming closer and closer to their potential capitulation. We don't know how deep this could be, but we know that Bitcoin will most likely be negatively affected by this event if it occurs on the way down. Alts could capitulate either by BTC mooning or falling hard, but the second scenario would make things worse as we could see a vicious negative feedback loop. The whole situation looks very fragile and until I see most of the longs gone or Bitcoin making a decisive bottom, I'd be very cautious.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by BitcoinMacro
1