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Bitcoin technical and fundamental analysis #2Bitcoin has been in a really bad spot over the last few days and the situation seems pretty tough. Alts have been stealing the show and money is flowing out of Bitcoin and into Alts. Yes the Tesla situation played a role, as well as the volatility / correction is stocks... but Bitcoin was already not in a healthy spot given how fast it went up. In my opinion the current 'goal' is to get into the area that was never retested after the Tesla pump + getting to the 200 DMA. There are some important indicators and models showing support higher than 42k, but in terms of Technical analysis there are something that tell me we need to break the 42-43k bottom and create a little panic before we bottom. How we get there is different story, because after such a strong dip a bounce is expected. Like with the double CME gap at 60k, the market bounced after the previous crash and then fell lower again. The fractal sits perfectly on the price action (was one I saved yesterday). It disagrees with me as to what comes first (upside or downside), but agrees on the 42k bottom. There are a lot of things that I like in that level and why I think it would be the bottom (tracking various models and previous cycles), however 38-40 would literally be the perfect bottom and also have a high chance of being hit. 38k is rather extreme, but 40k has a lot of confluence too. The CME chart shows a slightly different picture for the spot charts, because there is a key double bottom at the first line which will most likely be broken. On CME some price action between 39 and 44k doesn't exist as it happened over some weekends, something that when we see it the price tends to go back into that area. For example we had that crazy little bottom recently at 47k, which was a weird double bottom on CME. Look where the price bottom after this dip. Right after it swept the low. In my opinion the crypto market hasn't topped, yet the only way to know is after we go from 38-42k. That will be the real test... There is a pretty high chance Bitcoin is done for a really long time especially if Ethereum surpasses the Market Cap of Bitcoin which is actually only 80-90% if we also include that there are 10% more lost coins in Bitcoin than in Ethereum. Ethereum has tons of things going for it, so Ethereum having 2x the market cap of Bitcoin won't be surprising at all to me, however when the flippening is about to happen I do expect some resistance and a pullback for ETH. I've been a hardcore Bitcoin guy, but I am also a trader... And the truth is that the market doesn't care about what is best or what will be the best, but it cares about hype, pumpamentals and unicorns. So Ethereum will be the biggest bubble in history and the biggest collapse, but for Ethereum to collapse it first needs to grow so much that people will see why we need Bitcoin. Until then Ethereum seems flawless and Bitcoin like the worst asset ever. That's something to keep in mind, as we don't live in a perfect world and the best doesn't always win and people don't have perfect information. Also neither system is perfect and in race, yes some times the slow and steady wins, but until it wins the faster one is ahead. The 100-300-400 Simple Moving Averages on the 12h chart are the same as 50-150-200 Daily Moving Averages These are the other charts that I am talking about but aren't showing up for some reason in the idea: s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BitcoinMacro
#Bitcoin in a narrow $3k range, bulls expect more upsidesPast Performance of Bitcoin Bitcoin prices are in a tight range, and volumes are lower as the market appears to steer clear until there is a clear trend definition in the short term. Overly, bears have the upper hand, but even though the events of mid-last week shape the current trend, prices are within a narrow trading zone, inside a bear flag. As it is, the primary support is at $15.5k, the sell trigger. #Bitcoin Technical Analysis Presently, Bitcoin is bearish and prices below $18.5k and $17.5k, marking Q3 2022 lows. At spot rates, BTC is tethered close to this year's lows, and the coin is likely to slip lower, dropping below $15.5k. Technically, prices are within a bear flag. There are higher highs relative to the upper BB, signaling strength. Still, unless prices are above $18.5k, bears are in control from an effort-versus-result perspective. Therefore, as long as prices are within the November 9 bearish engulfing bar, traders can short on every pullback, targeting this week's lows at $15.5k. More losses will trigger panic in the market, forcing BTC towards $12k. What to Expect from #BTC? BTC is still flimsy, and the uptrend is backed by dismally low trading volumes. Inside a bear flag, traders might search for shorts below $18.5k. However, gains above November 9 highs will disqualify the current preview, swinging price action in favor of depressed bulls. Resistance level to watch out for: $18.5k Support level to watch out for: $15.5k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
1
Bitcoin Dominace Quick Update, We are on Edge of Epic Altseason Bitcoin Dominance Quick Update. Bitcoin Dominance is now at support. If Bitcoin dominance breaks the current support level of 64.2%, then the next support is 63.3% and the last major support is 62.4%. We will see a huge altseason if Bitcoin breaks 62.4%. Bitcoin is trading in a range that is a good sign for alts and many altcoins already mooning. It's just a matter of time now, We are on edge of the epic altseason. If bitcoin remains below $35,000 for the next 2-4 weeks, we see every altcoin pumping.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Bitcoinik
2
Bitcoin Dominance Elliott wave, ABC correction going onBitcoin dominance touched 70.5% and rejected from there. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin Dominance completed the Elliott wave pattern and now the ABC correction wave is going on. The B wave is completed with a 70.5% high and now we started the C wave. 67.5% level is the next support zone for Bitcoin Dominance and after that, we see a quick fall in dominance. The upward momentum is broken on the daily chart. The next 2 weeks are very crucial and decide the move of alts. Bitcoin is also stable which gives little room to alts. Hold your bags tightly and place sell orders. Don't Hodl alts too long. Make an exit plan and place orders within range, don't except 10-20x directly. Book some profit or take back your investment at 2x and enjoy the ride. Let's hope 2021 will bring the best for us.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Bitcoinik
4
Bitcoin Waiting For BreakoutBitcoin is going on with healthy correction. The major support zone now is $10500-$10800, we may see a quick spike to these levels, buyback at these levels with 30% percent of funds. RSI is good for another up move on the daily chart. Resistance zone to keep an eye is $11900-$12200 if Bitcoin breaks these levels we may going toward $14,000. If the breakout is in downward direction $9800-$10,000 works as good support and then $9200. I am bullish on Bitcoin and the next parabolic move will push the price to $18,000 range. Keep out of alts, Bitcoin dominance will increase with price and alts will dump more. Happy Trading
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Bitcoinik
2
Bitcoin & Traditional marketsBitcoin is in a weird situation which looks like strong accumulation, while Bitcoin is cheap based on various models and indicators... However across all timeframes it is bearish. It hasn't managed to close above the Monthly + Weekly pivot, it is still below the main Volume Profile PoC (if we include the January area too) and it is below the all major daily moving averages (50-200-300), except the 350 DMA. Some reasons why Bitcoin and Crypto took such a hit, was that everything got really high really fast, excess leverage & speculations, too many coins, too many new entrants, institutions and most importantly global liquidity was shrinking. The inflation story was overstretched and the reflation/inflation trade was peaking, at least in the short term and the inflation story was driven by speculation and supply shortages, not by monetary expansion and real growth. Those exhaustion signs have been around since early 2021 and in Q2 things started getting more serious. Here I will examine where we are at the moment with tons of graphs. Will try to make it as simple and short as possible, but also describe all major asset classes as I do think that having a clear macro picture will help everyone make better decisions both in crypto and outside crypto. Stocks as a whole grew substantially over the last year, and we did see several indices go up 10-20% from the beginning of the year. The Nasdaq has been the best performer lately, while smaller stocks and stocks outside the US have been suffering. Asian stocks have performed very poorly although up until a few months ago their performance was incredible. Small caps in the US also a very similar story, but ones yields peaked, they peaked too and as the deflation/disinflation story was slowly taking over US behemoths started rising again as they are acting as 50+ year bonds. Currently the trend is benefiting US tech giants which however have grown quite a bit over the last few months and might eventually get a significant correction. If they correct hard, I can't see how small caps won't be affected, as the Russell 2000 has also been showing signs of exhaustion. Hasn't broken down yet and still looking ok for the long term, but until we get a clear breakout being a little more cautious isn't bad. In my opinion stocks will really go parabolic at some point, but I also can't ignore the fact that as a whole they are up 30% from their Feb 2020 peak and the financial system is very fragile. So for stocks the best thing is to be bullish but potentially reduce risk. As the VIX is at such low levels during a pandemic, preparing for higher volatility is the right thing to do. We haven't had a big move on the VIX since the Covid crash and before that we'd get one every 12-24 months. Now that the VIX is down 84% from its peak, completed a full cycle and is sitting at support... It is prudent to have less risk on. The major Meme stocks have had major corrections, but they might not be done yet. At least GME has found perfect support at 180 (talked about it recently). As long as it stays above 160 in my opinion there is hope. Above 220 it could really moon once again. For AMC things looked way more rough but the bounce yesterday really took me by surprise. It was really strong and managed to bounce hard after sweeping a key low. The 50-55$ area is an area of strong resistance, but if it manages to close above it we could see another major squeeze up. The last squeeze was a fomo rally + gamma squeeze + short squeeze and for now I don't know what this one could be like. I have a feeling that the one that will really squeeze this time around while AMC chops around 30-70$ is GME. Why? Double tops usually break and the one at 340 really looks ready to be broken. GME has consolidated for much longer than AMC too. One of the most important markets to look at, are US treasuries. Long dated bonds have been going up (yields down) and that's a deflationary move. What we have seen with the Reverse Repo from the Fed, is that the demand for these assets has been quite high and that the bond market isn't buying the strong reflation story. Just to be clear, both bonds and stocks can go higher, but as bonds fall or rise, certain types of stocks benefit from that. For example the 30Y bond goes down in price, small caps benefit, when it goes up, large caps benefit. The rate of change is also very important as big moves in bonds in either direction can create some short term panic in stocks. From their ATHs bonds fell about 28% which over the last 12 years has been a pretty good place for a long term bottom. However right now bonds have found some resistance and haven't broken out to the upside yet which means their downtrend might resume, which would benefit the inflation/reflation assets (people selling safe assets to get into risk assets). Next most important is the US Dollar. When the USD and Bonds go up together, it's a sign of trouble. Something isn't right... Of course both got significantly oversold and hit key support levels, so this might just be a technical bounce. Neither the USD or bonds have broken out yet. Will show several pairs here like EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCNH, USDZAR. EURUSD hasn't broken down yet, but below 1.17 I easily see it go to 1.14-1.15 where it could potentially bottom. Until then EURUSD is in choppy waters as it is flirting with the 300 DMA. It's long term trend is up, medium term sideways and short term down... but the bounce of support so far is quite promising. GBPUSD has broken a key diagonal, however the long term structure is quite bullish. It has formed a massive base and could eventually break higher, but until I see a close above 1.46 I'd play this level by level. Why? Because the 1.35-1.45 was multi decade support, so I'd like to see it fully reclaimed. On the USD pairs I do believe the USD has shown some extra strength, but nothing is clear there either. For USDCAD looks like a real strong reversal rally but it could just be a dead cat bounce. For USDCNH we have a similar situation, but with a higher chance that this is a real reversal. USDZAR fell so much that it finally bounced, but has so far found resistance on some previous key support levels. Both that and USDMXN have been getting slammed every single time and for now we haven't had a full confirmation of a reversal for those either. Looking just at EURUSD or DXY isn't the right way to evaluate dollar strength. Finally let's get into the most important commodities. Oil after sweeping its 2018 high by a little bit had an 8% correction and hit some really important support levels. It was a very healthy correction after a very huge rally and it might be over. Oil breaking above 77 again would be very bullish and its current structure is already quite bullish. Getting down to 64-66 would be a very nice buying opportunity. There are huge supply issues for oil and this could take the price much higher over the next few months or years. Copper failed to sustain above its 2011 ATH and the R3 Yearly, which is quite bearish. In the short term it has formed a bearish trend, but the long term trend is up and Copper has both high demand and supply issues. It's sitting above support and looking more and more bullish by the minute, so going long here isn't a bad idea, with a stop below the current lows. Otherwise wait for a break of the ATHs and buy any dips after that. Gold had a similar situation with Copper, but at different times. The truth is that the current macro situation is more bullish for Copper if governments start spending on building/creating stuff, especially for technological stuff or regarding renewable energy. We might have a disinflationary backdrop, but the demand for Copper might be much larger than its supply.
by BitcoinMacro
1
Bitcoin technical and fundamental analysis #1Bitcoin is looking pretty explosive here. Bitcoin has gone totally flat over the last few months and it has been just chopping around. Right now it is sitting at the exact average of all prices over the last few weeks/months. At the 50 DMA, Monthly P and the Volume Profile PoC. This has come right after the most crucial correction so far. We finally broke the 50 DMA after the two perfect touches screamed for breakdown, got close to the 128 DMA, touched the S2F 463DMA model, hit the Volume profile HVN, Golden ratio x2 multiplier AND the NVT price model. Couldn't have gotten any better... Or could it? We got a complete wipe out of longs at that point and funding has remained very low, the lowest around 57k. Essentially that was the best shakeout that bottomed at the best potential bottom. Alts have been trending higher vs BTC for 4 months and they still look strong. Eventually a lot of that money will flow back into BTC. A lot of the BTC sold has gone to strong hands and a big portion of the people who sold that BTC most likely bought alts with it, so when the flows reverse BTC could fly. Until then alts are a bit of an issue because BTC might suffer if Ethereum or others flip it in the short term. The altcoin top in my opinion will come either at the end of May or end of June and then BTC will start its rally... But until then we could see some incredible things there. I wouldn't be surprised if BTC has a rally to 70-80k and then has a major correction. This could come along with the large cap top and then small caps start rallying again like we saw in Feb-March. Until then going down to 51k isn't impossible, but I think that would be the bottom and we wouldn't go lower. If we go to 40k from here I will be very surprised given that things haven't gotten that hot yet. Funding rates across the board remain pretty low and just a few weeks ago we had a 30% correction which is usually enough for a bottom. For now I don't think 60k will break in one go, however I don't think it will take long either. So to me the question is more like will Ethereum rallying hard affect Bitcoin negatively? So far it looks like it. I don't believe the bull market is close to being over... Not even remotely. But BTC might suffer as alts go higher until either alts get too high and reverse or there is a catalyst for Bitcoin to rally. In my opinion these big rallies in alts will eventually force Bitcoin to correct along with them and at one point BTC will start rallying alone. However the truth is that my beliefs around the market and around Bitcoin are currently being tested given how many things alts have going for them, and more specifically Ethereum. If Bitcoin gets dethroned, that could be very damaging for the price even vs USD in the short term. At least until Ethereum fails...
Long
by BitcoinMacro
Bitcoin seasonalityBitcoin has nearly always closed Q4 in the Green. Only time it didn't was in 2014 where the price initially dumped 28%, then went higher from where Q4 started and then lower fell even lower. All other time it has been positive, but that doesn't mean that Q4 was starting smoothly. For the first 4 years there was initially a dump and then a pump. Even in 2010 there was a big spike down. The average drop was about 25-30%, with the two exceptions in 2010-2011 were the drops were much bigger. Time wise the 2014 would say that Bitcoin would dump near 4800 on October 22nd. Important dates as we are overextended in this 'bear market' which has lasted nearly 300days. 17th CBOE futures expiration. 22nd Fractal local bottom. 24th Full moon. 27th CME futures expiration. Bears have about 2 weeks to do something imho. If we go down we are going to go down hard and fast. Based on this data imho the best thing to do is: buy some Bitcoin now and keep some to buy lower. Don't dump in any case because the market could reverse very quickly. I can't see a scenario where we don't go near 10-11k by the EOY (not higher than that for now).
BNC:BLXLong
by BitcoinMacro
9
Bitcoin & Crypto market analysis 15/06/2021 #2Hello everyone! Bitcoin managed to close last week with a very strong candle, which was probably due to several reasons. Countries looking into Bitcoin, Microstrategy buying, Elon Musk saying they won't sell and a lot of other little positive news coming from various groups which are pushing for regulatory clarity and are pro Bitcoin. We had the formation of the mining council in the US which I don't think is a great idea, but many investors perceive it as a good step forward. Some regulatory clarity is also coming from China and it looks like miners moving out of China will be a very positive thing for Bitcoin. Today Bitcoin had a decent day as acted as expected. After Microstrategy announced that they completed the buying of Bitcoin, Bitcoin slowed down and had a little dip. A few hours later they announce that they plan to sell 1B worth of stock in order to buy another 1B worth of Bitcoin. I don't know if the SEC allows them to do so, but if they do... More big buying is coming and people will front run it again. We also had Paul Tudor Jones say that he now has 5% into Bitcoin and suggests that this is the right allocation. Now Bitcoin is forming a mini uptrend and the momentum has shifted upwards even if it might be short term only. Although Bitcoin going down to 18-24k would be very reasonable and based on my view of TA & cycles that would be the most likely scenario... Current fundamentals and quantitative data disagree. First of all there is a clear shift that money is moving back into BTC from alts. Yes alts will bounce, yes some will do very well... but despite what Bitcoin does, many need quite a lot of time before they start going up again. The amount of stablecoins in the market is very high indicating a lot of money on the sidelines and the marketcap to stablecoins ratio is very low (bullish) and at the same time the NVT and S2F are indicating Bitcoin was and is pretty cheap here. Actually the cheapest it has been in years based on those indicators. Long/Short rations have been the lowest they have been since Nov-Dec 2020 (all across the board), funding still very low and lending rates have completely collapsed. All that means that people are sitting on the sidelines and most gains could be made by going long right now. So overall momentum is shifting, positive news coming out again and again, on-chain data and futures are showing a pretty strong market with the potential of going higher and weak hands have been shaken out. So let's get into what we see based on TA which shows a bit of different picture and indicates that the path forward for Bitcoin might not be as smooth. Below I have added several links with interesting charts. Bitcoin has closed above 38.4k which was a key level and has confirmed an uptrend in lower timeframes. A small issue is that 36-37.4 is an area where Bitcoin left a decent gap on CME and some untested areas, but if Bitcoin goes there I think it is a good opportunity to go long even just in the short term. From 40k all the way up to 49k there is a ton of resistance for Bitcoin and several others things that I've mentioned on my previous analysis (Death cross, many touches of 28-31k + 300 DMA etc). Currently Bitcoin has found resistance at about 41k after sweeping the 40.4k high and then turned 39.5k into support which is quite bullish. Based on the horizontal resistance, the monthly P and the 200 DMA 42-42.5k seems to be the most important resistance. but as you can see below 44-44.5k also has resistance (50DMA + Weekly R3 + horizontal on CME) and 46-49k has some tons of resistance both on CME (major gap down), GBTC and especially the spot chart as it was a key break down level which was support for quite some time + R3 yearly. In my opinion if we go above 50k we will probably keep going higher. 53-54k is key resistance and could give a strong dip, but after that we'd probably see more upside. Yes this could turn like September 2020 with Bitcoin going up to 49-53k, then down to 37-40k and then higher. To me this won't be easy, this won't be smooth. Finally in terms of alts, they might bounce soon as they are getting oversold and are near support... but Bitcoin dominance could get all the way up to 60% before alts go up again. Good luck! s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com coinalyze.net
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BitcoinMacro
3
Bitcoin Report - Complete market analysis Is Bitcoin in an uptrend or downtrend? (Short & Long term) Bitcoin is currently chopping in a range, but is slowly forming higher highs and higher lows in the short term. The medium-term trend is down since we broke the bullish structure when it broke 47-48k and we are currently below the 50 & 200 DMAs which have also formed a death cross. However, the long-term trend is still up as the price is above the 28-29k support and above 300-350 DMAs. Most of you have probably already seen the Wyckoff schematics and that the price action really looks like Wyckoff accumulation. I am a pretty big fan of Wyckoff and his methods, but they aren’t perfect and there are no guarantees so trade based on them with caution. In my opinion until we get a close above 48k the market is neutral-bearish so it is better to play it level by level, potentially taking both sides (buying dips at support, selling rallies at resistance). Is Bitcoin’s momentum up or down? (Daily-Weekly) The current momentum for Bitcoin isn’t very clear and but it is coming at critical juncture. The RSI on the Daily is close to 50 where a very important diagonal lies. Above 50 it essentially turns properly bullish (the mid-point) and it won’t happen abruptly. There has been a very nice and slow build up with the RSI forming a nice trend. On the Weekly momentum is bearish, but not very bearish. Is Bitcoin overvalued or undervalued based on indicators & models? Bitcoin is significantly undervalued based on S2F multiple, the NVT, Puell Multiple and the Stablecoin Ratio. Based on stuff like Bollinger Bands, RSI, Mayer multiple, VWAP, MRVR, SOPR etc it seems fairly value to slightly cheap, but most of these indicate a bear market. The truth is that the market got very fearful based on the Fear and Greed index and some of these metrics are similar to what they were back in Sep-Oct 2020 before the big run up. What are long/short ratios, funding, premiums etc showing? Long/Short ratios are about 1-1.4 across most platforms. We haven’t seen Long/Short ratios really go below 1 and stay there, which might be a sign that the market isn’t ready for a huge long-term rally until longs get wiped out. However, because open interest got crushed this might not be necessary. Funding remains very low or negative most of the time. Every time it goes substantially negative, we have a decent move up and every time it stays near 0.01% for some time, we get a correction. We are in a period of very low funding for more than a month, after 5 months of very high funding which could mean that now we can start going higher even if it is just short term only until funding turns positive and remains positive. coinalyze.net Premiums show a healthy picture as they remain low after the expiration. They also came down from very high levels and they crashed below 0 only for a day. Currently they hover around 1% and that to me tells that we haven’t had proper capitulation yet, but it might not be necessary. The Korean premium has also collapsed from 24% down to 2% after hitting 0% twice, also an indication of less froth in the market, but also that the bull might be over. Binance, Bitfinex and Coinbase don’t have any significant premiums/discounts between them. GBTC premium also slowly going higher indicating potential institutional demand. What are the current statistics key on-chain data & statistics of Bitcoin? Currently on-chain data are showing very low levels of activity on chain, that long term holders aren’t selling and that they are back to accumulating after a period where long term holders were net sellers (now net buyers). On the 25th of June we got a pretty significant capitulation with some holders selling at a big loss. Overall, we aren’t seeing big deposits or withdrawals from exchanges, but the supply on exchanges is still much lower than where it was a year ago. The 1+ year inactive supply so far has bottomed at the same place it bottomed in Nov 2019 so we haven’t really seen so many people move their coins in this bull market. The big difference with the previous bull is that back then we had all the forks and many people moved their BTC to be safe when claiming forks like BCH. Long term holders not selling doesn’t guarantee upside as long-term holders tend to sell during bull markets, not bear markets. Currently BTC is going for its third gap up in a row after it was only having gaps down for almost 2 months. This might be an indication that something has really changed and the market is more bullish. This gap is going to be even bigger than the one during the ‘El Salvador / Microstrategy’ pump. Some really important historical data is that every time BTC has touched the 350 DMA it has bounced and it has bounced by about 65%. However, every time it has touched the 350 DMA and bounced, that was a dead cat bounce and the bear market had already begun. What are the key levels for Bitcoin right now? The most important level is 34.8-35.3 as it is the monthly Pivot which on July 1st rejected the price but has now been reclaimed. Not only is it the monthly P, but is a level that has acted as support or resistance multiple times. The fact that BTC managed to reclaim this level so quickly at the beginning of the quarter is significant. 33.8-34k and 32k are the most important support levels. If the price goes down to 30k I don’t think that level will hold. Below 29k the abyss and the next real support levels are 27k for a bounce, 24-25k for multiple bounces, 18-20k best buying zone and finally 12-14k the ultimate buying zone in case we get some sort of crazy bear market crash. To the upside the whole 35.5-37.1k area is tricky because there are several important factors like the 50 DMA, the Volume Profile PoC and some horizontal resistance levels. Above that in my opinion the bull case becomes much stronger and the next key resistance is in the 43-44k area and then at 47-48k. 43-44k is the perfect place for a potential trap the same way people got trapped going short below 29k. The only high that hasn’t been swept is the one at 42.5k but right above it there is the 200 DMA + the horizontal resistance block. Then the next best one is at 47-48k which is also a major CME gap. Maybe these two levels might simply reject the price short term, but be aware that either one could be the top. 53k is also resistance but probably only short term as above 48k I think the bull will resume. What are alts doing vs BTC? What are doing vs USD? What is the BM% telling us? So far Altcoins have been looking fairly strong and especially Ethereum. Ethereum has a lot of things going for it, probably a lot more than BTC. EIP-1559, ETH 2.0, DeFi, Layer 2 scaling and so on… After 4 months of alt season alts rarely recover very quickly and they probably need another1-4 months from now. Alts vs BTC haven’t dropped enough so if the bull resumes it will probably be Bitcoin rallying alone for a bit and then we will get the next alt season. If BTC goes down I expect ALTBTC pairs to crash again and slowly I’d expect the Bitcoin dominance to slowly go up to 60% before alts pump again. Ideally ETHBTC would pull down to 0.035-0.04 and find support there before going higher, but currently it looks very strong. If ETHBTC close above 0.08 I think ETH could overtake (flip) Bitcoin within the next 12 months. The key here is the strength and evolution of Ethereum as it could be the one actually dominating the market and forcing Bitcoin to take a back seat. This transition period could benefit alts again although we probably won’t have a period that was like the first 4.5 months of 2021. Essentially money could be flowing out of certain coins and tokens, into Ethereum and some DeFi projects. It is important to notice that this is a very speculative scenario as up until now Bitcoin has been the leader and the market is moving around it and we have never seen two consecutive alt seasons without that involving alts getting squeezed in BTC terms (Ethereum included). The Bull market percentage both for USDT and BTC pairs hit extremely low levels which whenever we have seen them (around 2%) after an alt season we usually get a bounce for alts. The last time we got these two at these levels was in Sep-Oct 2020 so it is normal to see altcoins do well and this could lead into Bitcoin having a strong bounce. www.turtlebc.com www.turtlebc.com What are traditional markets telling us? Traditional markets have shown quite a lot of strength despite the USD and Bonds going higher. The current environment is a bit tricky because I can't see what will stop stocks from going parabolic, but I also think we will get a strong correction at some point. Currently it is mainly US large caps that are performing the best as deflationary forces are kicking in again. There is inflation both due to government spending and due to supply issues (either supply chain issues or underinvestment -i.e Oil) but this doesn't mean things are going well. There is good inflation and there is bad inflation, and based on the current way the system is structured and people are behaving stocks are the most attractive place to be. The trend is extremely strong and I think it will continue. No idea when will the next 15-25% drop will come and the current risk on environment on stocks will benefit crypto. Oil is looking extremely bullish, while metals no so much. Other than stocks being on this mega trend which I've been talking about for about a year, I don't see other things as clearly. Big tech stocks do benefit from deflation, so even if the reflation trade is over this doesn't mean stocks will collapse. The US is the strongest one in the world and the system benefits US assets the most. I am bullish on - Stocks and Oil and I am neutral on - Metals, Bonds, USD. So how does this affect crypto? Well if stocks keep going, if QE and low rates continue, if governments keep spending, if we don't have a crash in the next few months as people have to start paying back debts... I think crypto will eventually resume its uptrend. There are many risks in the system at the moment and any shock could lead to big downside in crypto.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BitcoinMacro
Bitcoin - WATCH OUT MOON !Good Morning my fellow Bitcoinistas! I am still pondering how this 3rd corrective pattern will end, but end it will. And when it does end WATCH OUT MOON ! For those of you new to my work I am still 100% long Bitcoin and have always held a small long position since 2013. Yes, I have traded a little BTC here and there over the years and taken some profit but my primary focus has always been to accumulate as much as I can before the big pay day arrives. Well....... I think the big pay day is about to arrive. Or should I say the beginning of MANY big pay days is about to arrive. Or better yet, the first big pay day of a life of pay days is quickly approaching. Yes, I believe that if you hold enough Satoshi now you may soon be able to start taking a weekly or monthly pay check against them for the rest of your life. If you have an entire Bitcoin or more you may be able to not only take a pay check every week for the rest of your life but pass down generational wealth to your family too. It may still take a few years to reach that extreme level but I believe it is very possible to see in your life time if you are 70 or younger right now assuming you make it to at least 80. That's right, in less than a decade if it event takes that long. Look how far Bitcoin has come in one decade when NOBODY was watching. Now the entire world is watching and all the Big Players are lining up to take their piece of the pie. No matter what the pie is, and no matter how small or how large the pie is, these people ALWAYS have believed that it is their God Given right to own the majority of the pie. Am I wrong? They have done it with Stocks, Bonds, all Commodities, Real Estate, Currencies of the world, etc. etc. They gobble up anything and everything of value and leave the scraps for the rest of the population. What do you think they are about to do with Bitcoin ? I thought at first, maybe they are buying up Bitcoin so they can destroy it. For what? So all of their paper denominated assets go to zero as the dollar continues to lose value or hyper-inflates to zero? No, that can't be it. They don't want to save the dollar. They couldn't give two shits about the dollar. What they want to save is their wealth and power. For the really rich, and the really wise, hanging on to a dying financial system and debt based monetary system does not make any sense. What does makes sense is for them to protect the dollar and prop it up just long enough form them to make their escape into something new. They know that the old financial system is going down and anything attached to it will go down with it. They KNOW this. So what is their answer? In a word - Bitcoin Bitcoin is the only financial asset available that has absolutely no counter-party risk when you hold your own keys. Not even gold or silver can make that claim when it is stored in somebody else's vault. They need a life boat that is completely independent of any of the other financial markets that my implode from their mismanagement. So when other markets and currencies decline where are the value of those dollars going to go? For the well informed they are going into Bitcoin. For the brainwashed bag holders their dollars will ride those markets down to the basement. You are the fortunate ones in my opinion because you are paying attention and taking action. Others just think Bitcoin is another fad that will soon pass like cell phones or the Internet. Too bad for them. Crypto will soon be running the world and you are either ahead of the curve or you are not. By the time most people come to this epiphany it will be too late for them. They will remain the day to day debt slaves they've always been working paycheck to paycheck just to make ends meet. Even after their paychecks are denominated it Satoshi it will be too late for them to amass great wealth starting from zero. One benefit on their side, however, is that anything they save in Bitcoin will not be eaten away by inflation like their dollars of the past. So in that situation even the lowly savers might have a chance to put together a little nest egg for themselves over time unlike today. YOU HOWEVER HAVE A ONCE IN A LIFE TIME OPPORTUNITY IN FRONT OF YOU RIGHT NOW! Yes I meant to yell. I needed to get your attention and I'll end this extra long monologue with these final thoughts: Trading is a great skill if you are good at it. Those that are good at it have made tremendous profits in terms of dollars over the years. I, however, have never been particularly great at trading. I have done very well recognizing trends, patterns, and looking long term down the road while others are looking short term at their own selfies but I am not that great at perfectly trading those ideas. That's why I HODL more than trade. I, and I suspect you, have been blessed with the curiosity of looking for what is NEXT instead of just focusing on the nonsense that is dangled in our face every day. I believe what is next is Bitcoin and I believe that now it is the time to HODL and accumulate more than it is time for trading. (unless you are really good at it) I thought about raising cash at the peak of the next move but where is that? How high will it go? When will it turn? Will it turn? I don't know. What if it goes lower? How much lower will it go? I don't know. The market has done a particularly good job this time of disguising its intent. So even though I can't tell exactly what the price is going to do next based on looking at the charts (that which is dangled in my face) I can get a good idea of what is coming next by watching what the big money players are doing. What are they doing? Buying massive quantities of Bitcoin OTC and spending millions and million of dollars to build out the infrastructure needed to promote their new found investment of the century - Bitcoin. I have long believed that the easiest way to get rich is to watch what the rich people are doing and then do that. Well, we finally have a vehicle available in which we can do exactly what they are doing even before many of them get to do it themselves. We all have the ability to buy and hold Bitcoin NOW. But what happens when all of the available supply is gone? The early opportunity is gone too. Think about that for a minute. What happens when all of the available bitcoin is sucked up into their new financial system, contracts, etc? How does the average Joe get any? Answer: He works his ass off to earn it. Just like he does today for the dollars he earns. That's why I am still buying and HODLing as much as I can regardless of price. I am buying my future pay checks now while they are still cheap rather than continue to work for them later. If I am wrong I'll never be wealthy. But that was never really an option anyway before Bitcoin. So what do I really have to lose by holding Bitcoin? NOTHING BBS out. P.S - If you have an answer as to what type of corrective pattern will complete the over all Double Three correction I'd love to see it. Thanks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
15
Bitcoin - Weekly update for Sunday June 23, 2019Hello my fellow Bitcoinistas! The week was a heck of a ride was it not? I know we still have a couple hours to go before this week's candle official closes but I'm going to go ahead and call this a green week. lol. For those of you following my work you already know this chart pretty good. For those that don't you will notice that after the previous breakout (yellow left) Bitcoin experienced SEVERAL weeks of bullish price increases before taking a break, then resumed again, and again, and again until finally topping out around $20K. We appear to be in the same pattern. Breakout, touch-back, red week, engulfed by green week, followed by many green weeks to follow. You can of course short this if you want, but I believe those still calling for $6K and especially $3K are just smoking crack or some other illegal substance in my opinion. Can you make money on the short side too? Sure you can if you are a friggin trading ninja and are well skilled at snatching raw chicken out of the mouths of alligators. But go ahead, try your luck. You may be the ONE. :0) Why fight the trend? Look at the 20/40 weekly moving average cross on the right of the chart. It crossed on June 2nd and just keeps expanding. To get those averages to uncross right now somebody would have to crack Bitcoin and ruin it for everybody forever. Really, it would take a complete failure of Bitcoin to get prices to come back down that far right now and uncross those averages. Look at the same averages on the left of the chart. Look at how long they held up under the last bull run. It takes a lot and a long time to uncross these averages once they cross over bullish. The top of the 20 week MA, right now, is about $6K, just to touch it. Do people really think we are going to undo all the progress of the past few weeks in just a few hours, days, weeks, etc. and break below $6K. Really? Again, it just tells me that crack is cheap right now and all the Bears are smoking it. We may not hit $20K next week but we ain't hitting $6K either. The odds and averages say we are going higher long term not lower so don't buy the BS. What is driving this? For me it is what is has always been. The scarcity and security of Bitcoin as a store of value. Like physical gold, a place to park your savings and wealth so that it does not loose purchasing power over time. Has anybody that bought gold or BTC lost their purchasing power from 10 years ago? I don't think so. If anything it has increased tremendously, especially for BTC. This is what people want in sound money. Limited supply, no government control, no unlimited printing, secure, easily stored, easily divided, easily transported, easily transferred, and cannot be counterfeit. Bitcoin has ALL the benefits of gold and several benefits that gold does not have. You can't make a Gold watch with Bitcoin, but you sure can buy a very nice gold watch with Bitcoin. Rolex anyone? :0) What else is driving Bitcoin right now? The financial industry, Facebook, and the public awareness that brings. In short, the Facebook news about Libra is a good thing for Bitcoin. It validates the idea of crypto and brings awareness to those sitting on the fence. The big difference is that Libra will be tied to fiat currency value and other debt instruments. All the crap that is NOT associated with Bitcoin. People argue "But Libra will be stable" That may be true. Libra may achieve the goal of always being worth about 1 dollar or 1 whatever the unit may be. Here's the rub. Over time whatever cost you 1 Libra today may cost you 10 or 100 Libra later. It will lose purchasing power over time just like all the crap it is supposed to represent. How is Bitcoin different? It is actually a form of real MONEY, not just a currency. The value of Bitcoin when compared to all other currencies will continue to rise in those units as those units continue to race towards zero. All fiat currencies eventually get reset and go to zero. History is littered with dead currencies, not money, currencies. We have been taught that green toilet paper is "money" and it is NOT. It is fiat currency printed by the government in unlimited quantities and dilutes all those green pieces of toilet paper that were printed before them. We all need to recognize the difference between what is sound money and what is just a currency. When you can figure out the distinctions you will be in a much better frame of mind as to were to invest your labor. At any rate, that is my rant for this week. I'm still bullish on Bitcoin and plan to be so for quite some time. The halving is coming up next year and the projected stock to flow ratio puts BTC at no less than $60K at that time. Is that a guarantee? We won't know until we see it. Nothing is a guaranteed in life. Everything is a risk. But for me, being long on Bitcoin is a risk I am willing to take. Especially when I compare it to all the other options available. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin, the only real money I am currently aware of. I said "money" not assets, currency, valuables, etc. I said money. I hope this week treated you right and you put many more more Satoshis in your pile. If you were a Bear, sorry about your luck. For the right price you can come collect your skins. They are on the floor in front of my fireplace right now but I have more than I need. Please come buy them back, I'm trying to get rid of them. :0) BBS out! Oh yeah, I almost forgot. If you like these updates and feel they are worthy of a thumbs up I would certainly appreciate it? Thanks in advance.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
4
#Bitcoin Bulls Firm, BTC Stuck in a Choppy Sideways ConsolidatioPast Performance for Bitcoin Based on the performance in the daily chart, bitcoin prices remain volatile and choppy. Even though the primary trend remains northwards, there are hints of weakness, looking at the candlestick arrangement. The only positive is that sellers have been unable to break below the $29.8k and $30k primary support. The $31.3k is a liquidation level to watch out for. #Bitcoin Technical Analysis The uptrend remains, and prices are inside a bull flag, looking at the performance in the daily chart. The consolidation remains, but the breakout direction would shape the short-to-medium-term trend. For now, conservative traders can wait until there is a clear trend definition, aware that gains above $31.3k would likely pump the coin to $32.5k or better. Conversely, sharp losses below $29.8k invalidate the current preview, possibly allowing the coin to retest $28.3k and later $27k. What to Expect from #BTC? Buyers are optimistic, but the current formation points to balanced price action. The overall trend, set by events in the last weeks of June, dictates price action. Aggressive, risk-off traders may load as prices move sideways, aligning with the primary trend if prices are above $29.8k. Resistance level to watch: $31.3k Support level to watch: $29.8k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Long
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
#Bitcoin Consolidates, BTC Resistance Remains At $31.3kPast Performance of Bitcoin At spot rates, there is nothing to write home about BTC. Prices remain within a consolidation, moving below $31.3k and above the primary support zone at between $29.8k and $30k. Even though buyers are optimistic, the rejection of higher highs can be a concern for bulls. Still, with prices consolidating horizontally, the breakout direction could shape the short-to-medium-term trajectory. #Bitcoin Technical Analysis Buyers are confident; every low should theoretically provide entries for buyers targeting $31.3k or better. The rejection of higher prices on June 28 was with light volumes. Therefore, the uptrend remains from an effort-versus-result perspective unless there are deep losses below $30k. Conversely, there could be a reprieve if there are gains above $31.3k. Before committing, conservative, risk-on traders can wait for definitive, high-volume breakouts above/below $31.3k and $29.8k, respectively. What to Expect from #BTC? Traders are closely watching how price action unfolds in the daily chart. As it is, the path of least resistance is northwards at least from a top-down preview. Even so, the weakness in the recent retracement questions the strength of buyers. Therefore, while bulls remain in control, a break below last week's lows could define the immediate trend for Bitcoin. Resistance level to watch: $31.3k Support level to watch: $29.8k Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Long
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
1
#Bitcoin Ranging with Shrinking Volumes, Primary Support at $25kPast Performance of Bitcoin Bitcoin continues to trade under a tight trade range and above clear support and resistance levels, as evident in the daily chart. Even though there is a tinge of optimism with traders expecting the coin's fortunes to turn around, the reaction at FWB:25K and $27.3k could shape the near-term formation of the coin. The coin's volatility is muted for now, and prices are within the June 6 bull bar. #Bitcoin Technical Analysis In the short term, the June 6 bar is critical for the immediate trajectory of Bitcoin. On the upper end, the June 6 high is $27.3k, while support is $25.3k. This $2k range has confined the trader range of the past seven trading bars—all of which are with light volumes. Accordingly, from an effort-versus-result perspective, bulls have the upper hand. However, this preview will be null if BTC crashes below FWB:25K with rising volumes similar to or better than June 6. Therefore, the current trend remains neutral unless there is a wide-ranging bar from the current level towards $27.3k or breaking vigorously toward $22.5k. What to Expect from #BTC? Traders are optimistic, but prices are within a tight trade range. Conservative traders can wait for breakouts above or below present reaction levels for trend definition. Before then, buyers are in charge from a top-down preview despite recent days of lower lows. Resistance level to watch: $27.3k Support level to watch: FWB:25K Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
by Bitcoin_Analyzer