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XAUUSD Gold: Bearish Butterfly And TL Retest completed.As mentioned in our previous XAUUSD analysis, we were expecting a reversal at 1296 $. - see attached Levels to Buy/ Sell analysis -
Gold soars as risk sentiment worsens on weak US-China Data.
Almost the same picture was printed on Yen Strenght ( as presented by FXY ). Yen tested the trend line and reversed. - Safe Haven Asset with Gold -
Levels as described on the chart.
USDJPY Measured Move Down and Butterfly FormationsI want to approach the matter technically. I will share my fundamental approach on a detailed USDJPY forecast later.
According to the Bulkowski’s definition which I completely agree, MMD algorithm finds three consecutive turns, starting with a minor high then a minor low ( start of the corrective phase) then a retrace of at least 70% ending in a minor high( the end of the corrective phase – According to my backtests “Fib 50% – Fib 61.8% ” is the perfect retracement level – It is assumed that the next minor low will end the pattern at the bottom of the second leg.
According to the measured rule, as seen on the chart, the target of the pattern 109.100.
The trading tip can be described as “If the price nears the target or support abounds near the target as price approaches, close the trade.”
I will set my target as 109.200. I have two reasons for setting up 109.200 as the target.
1. Bullish Butterfly Pattern on the Daily Chart – Fibonacci 1.27 extension-
2. MM 4/8 Main Support/Resistance
So I will look for a long opportunity somewhere between 109.2** – 109.1** and my first target will be 110.100. I will send entry notification to the members.
An H4 Closing below 110.200 will be the confirmation of the MMD pattern targeting 109.200.
Note: Midterm Fundamentals -Demand for Yen as a safe haven asset – confirms the shorter-term bearish continuation in USDJPY.
Happy New Year
NIKKEI 225 Index Strugles to break above 20200The correction of Deep dive from 21600 to 19000 seems to be blocked by 20200 resistance.
An ascending triangle pattern is being printed on H4 Chart. - Potential bearish continuation pattern. -
Short at the potential breakout.
Bullish breakout would be validated at 20225.
DXY Dollar Index Technical OverviewI will not dive into fundamentals in this analysis as they are the subject of my next DXY forecast which I will publish in the first week of 2019.
DXY recovered its losses on Friday and ended the week at 96.95 just below the 97.05 resistance.
Let us put the facts at the table:
1. DXY is trading in a Bullish Market.
2. Trend reversal level may be set as “firm closings below 93.85”
3. The key resistance resides at 97.70
Bullish Continuation Scenario:
*A huge “cup and handle” formation will start to work again if the Index closes above 97.05 resistance.
**Firm closing above 97.05 will carry the Index toward 97.70.
***Breakout and closing above 97.70 would trigger the bullish move. Targets are 99.20, 99.70, 100.40.The ultimate target of the formation 102.50.
As seen on the H4 Chart, DXY was printing an ascending triangle – a bullish continuation pattern –. However, the pattern has been busted by the false breakout of the baseline.
Bearish Reversal Scenario
*The midterm bearish reversal scenario could be validated by the breakout of the trendline at 96.50. The first target will be 96.20.
**Firm closings below 96.20 would trigger the bearish move. The target of the Index will be 95.70, 95.50 and 95.00.
Happy Holidays.
I wish the new year brings green pips for you.