Strong BUY IndicationBullish Trend Confirmation:
Higher Highs and Higher Lows: The price action is forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong bullish trend.
Trendline Breakout: The price has broken above a long-term descending trendline, signaling a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages: The price is trading above key moving averages (e.g., the 50-period and 200-period moving averages), suggesting bullish momentum. A golden cross, where the 50-period moving average crosses above the 200-period moving average, is a particularly strong buy signal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line crossing above the signal line and moving into positive territory indicates increasing bullish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is rising and staying above 50, confirming the strength of the bullish move. However, it's not yet in the overbought territory, indicating room for further upside.
Chart Patterns:
Bullish Reversal Patterns: Formation of bullish reversal patterns such as a double bottom, inverse head and shoulders, or cup and handle.
Breakout from Consolidation: Price breaks out from a consolidation pattern (like a rectangle or symmetrical triangle) on high volume, suggesting the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Volume Analysis:
Rising Volume on Up Moves: Increased volume during price advances and lower volume during pullbacks indicate strong buying interest.
Volume Spikes: Significant volume spikes accompanying upward price movements, confirming the strength of the breakout.
Fibonacci Levels:
Retracement and Extension Levels: Price retracing to key Fibonacci levels (38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%) and showing strong support can provide a buy indication. Additionally, price targets can be set using Fibonacci extension levels.
Fundamental Factors:
Economic Indicators: Positive economic data or geopolitical events that favor precious metals as a safe-haven asset.
Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment turning bullish towards commodities and precious metals due to inflation concerns, currency devaluation, or other macroeconomic factors.
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7 Dimension Sell Idea For EURGBPCore Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
😇7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H1/M5
1: Swing Structure: Bearish with proper BOS after taking inducement and marking valid low. The price completed its corrective swing move with 4 pullbacks and a proper internal bullish structure, mitigating the extreme POI OB and sweeping swing liquidity in the Premier zone. It also swept external swing liquidity, making this entry more interesting with the Whale scoop entry setup.
Resistance: Supply area acts strong with a false breakout. Post-break buildup failed strongly, indicating that the price will go further down to form another low.
2: Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS:
Reversal: Rounding bearish patterns and consolidation rectangle bear side breakout. Shakeout reversal also at the same point.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS:
Multiple long wick candles at the POI area, then breakout the range with a momentum strict engulfing pattern.
3: Volume
🟢 Shows very good volume at the resistance level, but this volume is unable to break the resistance, so we consider it an execution volume at the point.
4: Momentum RSI
🟢 Since the start of July, momentum has been in the bearish zone with multiple bearish range shifts and divergence, everything loudly indicating this is still in the bearish phase.
5: Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Expansion has started just with momentum. Bearish headfake also indicates bearish volatility in this pair for now.
6: Strength: Showing weakness.
7: Sentiment: Everything is in bearish favor.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: M5
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Trend line breakout: Yes
💡 Decision: Sell
🚀 Entry: 0.8424
✋ Stop Loss: 0.8436
🎯 Take Profit: 0.8363
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 5RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 3 Days
SUMMARY: Analysis supports a strong sell position based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, with expected bearish momentum and high potential reward.
7 Dimension Buy Trade For USDJPY Core Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
😇7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: 15M
1: Swing Structure: Bullish with BOS after taking the inducement. Bullish impulsive swing move starts making a pullback in the internal structure POI liquidity zone. External POI OB FVG already taken from the discounted area.
🟢 Entry Model: Whale scoop
Support liquidity demand area might act as a reversal zone.
2: Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: No chart pattern is formed. Shakeout continuation.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: No significant candle pattern here.
3: Volume: Volume is almost dry during the whole corrective move, but we observed huge volume when the price takes liquidity or forms a false breakout.
4: Momentum RSI
🟢 RSI is still in the bullish zone, taking support on the extreme bullish support 40 level. No range shift yet and not any bullish support divergence. A bearish loud move makes some doubt, but it will confirm when the price gives a proper breakout on any side in this momentum range.
5: Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 A strong contraction is forming. This contraction breakout will confirm the proper move.
6: Strength: USD is still weaker.
7: Sentiment: Buy for the short term.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: 15M
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish
✔ Entry time liquidity take waiting
💡 Decision: Buy
🚀 Entry: 157.170
✋ Stop Loss: 156.890
🎯 Take Profit: 158.275
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 4RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 1 Day
Short SUMMARY: Analysis supports a strong buy position based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, with expected bullish momentum and high potential reward.
7 Dimension Sell Setup for Gold Technical Analysis Method SMC
** 7 Dimension Analysis**
Time Frame: H1 / 5M (Minute)
1: Swing Structure: Bearish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Choch, now at this extreme POI (Point of Interest) 🟢
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective (about to end) ↪️
🟢 Lower Time Frame (M1): Inducement is done. It's better to wait for M1 structure shift. ⛔
🟢 Internal Structure: Bullish yet ⬆️
🟢 Supply Area: Based on M5 timeframe 🟦
2: Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: No reversal chart pattern detected yet. ⬜
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Record Session count
3: Volume
🟢 After a good rally, volume is drying up now. **
🟢 Volume during correction is less than impulsive volume. **
4: Momentum RSI
Current: Bullish to sideways with proper bearish divergence and range shift. **
5: Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Middle band is interim support yet. 🟦
🟢 Price is currently in a contraction phase, making a Bollinger Band "W" pattern with the complete leg about to end. ➡️
🟢 High with a pin bar price also indicates a Band Puncher. **
6: Strength (ROC - Not Included)
7: Sentiment: Bearish for M5 SMC (Smart Money Concept) timeframe
✔️ Entry Time Frame: M5
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current Move: Correction at extreme POI ☑️
☑️ Resistance Area: Gives multiple rejections ❌
☑️ Candle Behavior: Not clear ⬜
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Waiting ⏳
** Decision:** Sell if price gives a breakout of the trend line ⬇️
** Entry:** 2381
✋ Stop Loss: 2387
Take Profit:** 2355
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:** 3.5
Expected Duration:** One day
SUMMARY:
Based on the multi-timeframe analysis, a potential short selling opportunity exists with a bearish bias. The current corrective move might be nearing its end at the extreme POI. However, waiting for confirmation from a bearish breakout on the M5 timeframe and a clear bearish candle pattern is recommended before entering a trade. Remember, this analysis should not be considered financial advice.
7 Dimension Trade Idea for NZDCAD😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bullish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Breakout of Structure (BoS); Current market is in a sideways mood
🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive to sideways
🟢 Inducement: Done
🟢 Decisional OB: Mitigated, but discount area liquidity is unmitigated yet
🟢 Support: Holds the price for the 4th time, indicating strong demand
🟢 Trendline: Buildup, prebreak, and a potential spike for tapping extreme areas
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: H4, Daily, and Weekly
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: Reversal, Rounding Patterns, Cup and Handle at both daily and H4 with strengthening buildup. Consolidation Rectangle makes this area interesting and demanding.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: In this highly consolidated zone, no candlestick pattern is effective. Watch and wait until breakout, then analyze candle behavior at breakout levels.
🟢 Volume: High volume throughout consolidation indicates bull dominance. Watch for volume on breakout or fakeouts for a final decision.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Momentum: Totally sideways
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Volatility: Highly contracted
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: NZD is stronger than CAD
💡 Decision: Wait till breakout or fakeout, but in both scenarios, consider buy positions
🚀 Entry: Breakout at 0.8418 / Fakeout at 8292
✋ Stop Loss: Breakout at 0.8383 / Fakeout at 8275
🎯 Take Profit: 0.8978
2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes; also Exit on 3rd trendline breakout, FOMO
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 20
🕛 Expected Duration: 50 days
📚 SUMMARY: The analysis points to a bullish trend with a strong consolidation zone. Breakout or fakeout opportunities are highlighted, emphasizing a buy strategy. The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, and a patient approach is recommended until decisive market movements occur.
7 Dimension Analysis For GBPNZD Yearly: The market is entrenched in a multi-year downtrend. Despite yearly structure breakouts, rejections from the CIP level have been consistent, indicating strong resistance. The failure to breach upper yearly resistance suggests substantial selling pressure. A post-breakout bearish buildup implies a high likelihood of further downside in the coming years.
Monthly: A shift from a bullish to a bearish character is evident. Strong resistance rejections, particularly marked by a classic doji in August 2023 within a blue-box-highlighted area, indicate significant downward potential. The momentum flow in August 2023 adds conviction to the bearish scenario.
Weekly: While the weekly chart shows some sideways movement, the current positioning lacks clarity. Further examination is required for a comprehensive view of the market dynamics.
😇7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
Swing Structure: Bearish
Structure Behavior: Choch 50%
Swing Move: Impulsive
Inducement: Done; high is confirmed
Pull Back: 1
Internal Structure: Bearish
Ext OB: Unmitigated
Resistance: Found at the FVG area, with demand formed and three proper IFC rejections.
Time Frame Confluence: Daily
Pattern
Chart Patterns: A rounding triple top within a green rectangle indicates a bearish breakout, signaling the end of the corrective move.
Candle Patterns: Inside, with a Harami on Friday close.
Volume
Fixed range volume indicates a strong seller presence.
Significant bearish volume is observed at the green rectangle.
During the cycle, only one bearish candle had a significant impact on price.
Momentum RSI
Zone: Sideways
Range shift: Not clear but oscillating between sideways to bearish.
Divergence: A hidden bullish divergence suggests the potential for short-term bullish momentum.
Overbought sold rejections count: 1, with a bullish divergence.
Volatility Bollinger Bands
The middle band is below, indicating a bearish trend.
Expansion suggests a short-term sideways zone.
Just finished a walking on the band.
Strength According to ROC
Values: -0.37 GBP vs. 3.5 NZD, indicating NZD's strength.
Sentiment
High selling sentiment according to all the studies.
✔️Entry Time Frame: H1
✅Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️Current Move: Impulsive is starting.
✔Support Resistance Base: Extreme supply area.
☑️Candles Behavior: Rally-based drop, Momentum.
☑️Trend Line Marked: Waiting for breakout.
💡Decision: Ready for sell
🚀Entry: 2.046
✋Stop Loss: 2.0602
🎯Take Profit: 1.9750
2nd If Internal Structure change also Exit 3rd trendline breakout, Fomo
😊Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:5
🕛Expected Duration: 15 days
SUMMARY:
The analysis reveals a strongly bearish sentiment in the market. The yearly and monthly perspectives provide a broader context, while the daily analysis points to an imminent impulsive move. The entry strategy aligns with the overall bearish outlook, with a clear risk-to-reward ratio and an expected duration of 15 days.
7 Diamnesion Analysis for OIL 😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective move is filled POi, now impulsive is starting
🟢 Inducement: Done
🟢 Pull Back: 1st and deep
🟢 Internal Structure: Bearish
🟢 Ext OB: Mitigated
🟢 Supply, Distribution, Rejection: Trendline broke, trend line Breakout/CIP done
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily, H4
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: Reversal, Rounding Patterns, Double top
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Record Session count observed in internal leg, Shrinking long wick end, Change in guard engulf, Momentum: strict engulfing with bearish strength, Tower top also observed
3️⃣ Volume
🟢 Fixed Range: In this area, bears are already strong
🟢 No Volume during correction
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Zone: Bearish sideways
🟢 Range shift: Bullish to sideways properly
🟢 Overbought rejections count: 2
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Middle band: Price below the middle band with a ninja candle bearish closing
🟢 Contraction: Fully
🟢 Two Band Punchers: Observed in the upper band
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: USD -3.05, OIL is -15
7️⃣ Sentiment
According to all sentiments, oil prices are under pressure
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current move: Impulsive
✔ Support Resistance Base: Supply area rejection
☑️ Candles Behavior: RSC, bearish Momentum
☑️ FIB Trigger event: Done
☑️ Trendline breakout: Done
💡 Decision: Sell at opening
🚀 Entry: 73.45
✋ Stop Loss: 76.87
🎯 Take Profit: 62.55
2nd If Internal Structure Changes also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, Fomo
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5
🕛 Expected Duration: 15 days
SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a bearish outlook, supported by structural, candlestick, and volume indications. Momentum in RSI and Bollinger Bands also align with the bearish stance. The decision is to sell at the opening with specific entry, stop loss, and take profit levels, considering potential internal structure changes and trendline breakouts.
7 Dimensions Bearish Analysis for EURCHF 🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis
Yearly: Super bearish
Monthly: Just broke the bearish structure
Weekly: Also just broke bearish structure
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive move is fully intact
🟢 Inducement: Not done yet, but a bearish buildup suggests more bearish momentum may occur.
🟢 Internal Structure: Totally sideways
🟢 Decisional and Ext OB: Both unmitigated.
🟢 Support Breakout: Awaiting; at CIP, a re-entry opportunity may arise. Buildup and prebreak qualities indicate strong bearish momentum.
🟢 Traps: fakeout at the bottom support; in this situation, a rebreakout is expected for continuation.
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: H4
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: Continuation - Fall and Base, Symmetric triangle at the base.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: In a sideways market, candlestick patterns might gain importance at the support or triangle breakout.
3️⃣ Volume
🟢 Fixed Range: Very high volume structure breakout.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Zone: Currently in a bearish to correction zone, technically indicating a bearish trend.
🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish at the last two internal swings.
🟢 Grandfather Father Son Entries: A 7-star setup is present for bearish.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Full Tight Contraction: Squeeze breakout awaited.
🟢 Walking on the Band: Highly expected.
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: EUR 2.72 vs CHF 6.55
7️⃣ Sentiment
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current Move: Sideways
✔ Support Resistance Base: Triangle
☑️ Candles Behavior: Bears appear stronger.
💡 Decision: Sell
🚀 Entry: 0.9261
✋ Stop Loss: 0.9366
🎯 Take Profit: 0.91060, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 3
🕛 Expected Duration: 15 days
SUMMARY: The market is exhibiting a bearish bias, with a clear breakdown of yearly, monthly, and weekly structures. The H4 timeframe reveals a robust bearish setup, awaiting confirmation of a support breakout for potential sell entries. Various indicators, including volume and momentum, support the bearish sentiment. The analysis recommends selling with a defined risk-to-reward ratio and a 15-day expected duration.
BITCOIN Analysis & Forecast 11.3.23 (AI Assisted)Watch the video version to see how this was generated ... your mileage may vary !!!
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Key Statistics and Technicals:
- Bitcoin Price: $34,474.71 (A drop of $516.32 or -1.48% for the day)
- Day's Range: $34,347.89 - $34,997.81
- 52 Week Range: $15,479.25 - $60,324.21
- Volume: 94
- Average Volume (10 days): 370
- Market Cap: $673.041B
- FD Market Cap: $723.638B
Performance Metrics:
- 1 Week: +0.82%
- 1 Month: +25.57%
- 3 Months: +16.65%
- 6 Months: +19.65%
- YTD: +108.73%
- 1 Year: +70.95%
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
News headlines reveal a mixed sentiment. On one hand, there are articles suggesting potential upside (e.g., "Bitcoin could be getting ready for a strong bull move"), while others indicate possible drawbacks (e.g., "Bitcoin price in risky territory; BTC faces "massively overvalued" stock").
The day's range, which is a difference of 654.92 USD, suggests a relatively moderate intraday volatility. Considering the 52wk range, Bitcoin is trading near its 52-week high, which can be an indicator of bullish momentum, but it also brings an increased risk of a correction or pullback.
Another critical aspect to consider is the broader macroeconomic environment.
Several news articles allude to potential regulatory changes, institutional involvement, and specific events that might influence price (e.g., "PayPal freezes Crypto kiosk after brief sell-out boom" or "Argentinian Presidential Candidate's Plan to Mine BTC Stirs Debate").
Positive Sentiment -
- "MicroStrategy gains $500 million with Bitcoin rise in Q3 2023."
- "Spot ETF 'undoubtedly' launch isn't guaranteed to sink Alts, Analysts say."
- "Bitcoin hits new ATH at $36,000 as rally seems unstoppable."
- "BTC hitting $34k could spell good news for altcoins."
- "Bitcoin's price is mostly flat as Fed holds rates steady, denies macro shift."
Negative Sentiment -
- "Is Bitcoin due a "significant" correction?"
- "ETF launch stokes fears Bitcoin and Ether trading with flash crash risks."
- "New BTC price 'breakouts see Bitcoin traders' caution lengthens to six-week."
- "Crypto volatility surges; Analysts say be ready for a drop."
- "Bitcoin's price volatility hints another increase 'On the Cards'?"
Weighting -
- Positive Sentiment: 40%
- Negative Sentiment: 60%
- Technical Indicators: Neutral with a tilt towards Strong Buy
Upside Potential -
Given the recent all-time high and positive sentiment from various news outlets, there's potential for BTC to retest its recent high at $36,000. Based on current momentum and historical performance, this could happen within the next 2-3 weeks. Probability: 60%
Downside Potential -
Considering the mixed sentiments and potential for a significant correction, BTC might see a drop towards the $32,000 - $33,000 range in the short term. This pullback might offer a buying opportunity. Probability: 40%
Misc. Observations -
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently, at $35428.53, it's up by 2.22%. Its dominance stands at 53.98%. The total market cap excluding BTC and ETH is at $368.143B.
Highest Gainers:
- Alchemy Pay / United States Dollar: +20.64%
- CELO / US Dollar: +11.06%
- Amp / United States Dollar: +8.70%
Highest Losers:
- XDC / Dollar: -3.27%
- Tezos / United States Dollar: -3.30%
- Gods Unchained / United States Dollar: -1.04%
High Volume Movers:
- Crypto Total Market Cap Exclude BTC and ETH: 88.333B
- Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar: 283.834K
- Litecoin / U.S. Dollar: 267.107K
Bitcoin remains a dominant force with more than half of the total crypto market share.
PoW cryptos such as Ethereum Classic and Horizen are seeing positive traction.
Amp, under the Currency/Remittance category, has a significant volume, making it one to watch closely.
Among investment-grade cryptos, CELO's 11.06% increase is notable, indicating increased interest or potential news driving the spike.
Contrarian Perspective:
High gains like those seen in ACH and CELO might face corrections. High gains in a short time frame can sometimes indicate overbuying, leading to potential profit-taking shortly after.
Bitcoin's dominance, while significant, means that a downturn in its price can significantly influence the entire crypto market.
. . . . . . . . .
INDICATOR SUITE:
Tesla Coil:
- len: 23.39
- 3xlen: 70.17
- len mirror: 16.61
- 3xlen mirror: -24.3
- average mirror: -5.06
- average: 34.94
Rate-of-Change (RoC):
- RoC: 32.74
- RoC + Signal Line Cross Up: 0.00
- RoC + Signal Line Cross Down: 0.00
- Various other sub-indicators including Bull, Hidden Bull, etc.
ATR + sma histogram:
- Histogram: 367.34
- ATR: 1102.50
- SMA: 735.16
OnBalanceVolume (OBV Cross):
- OnBalanceVolume: 7.579M
- Smoothing Line: 7.473M
Volume Analysis:
- Various plots ranging from 0.00 to 57892.77
HVol (dcedcow):
- Volume: 10.37K
RVol Pro:
- Value: 10.37K
Range Analysis - By Leviathan:
- VWAP: 27830.88
ADP:
- Primary ADP: 73
- Secondary ADP: 71
- Primary Signal Line: 71
- Secondary Signal Line: 68
Discretionary Weightings: Given the information and its relevance to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and Volatility …
- OnBalanceVolume (OBV): High importance. OBV measures the positive and negative flow of volume in a security relative to its price.
- ATR: High importance. Captures an asset's volatility.
- RoC: Medium importance. Measures the percentage change in price from one period to the next.
- Tesla Coil: Low to medium. Provides multiple layers of data related to price action.
Technical Analysis of Indicators:
- Tesla Coil: The chart seems to be in a consolidation phase, with the coil suggesting a possible breakout soon.
- Rate of Change: The ROC is relatively stable. This stability may suggest that the prevailing trend, be it bullish or bearish, is likely to continue.
- Average True Range: The ATR has remained consistent, suggesting that the current level of volatility is sustained. A higher ATR suggests increasing volatility, which might mean Bitcoin is experiencing significant price swings.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV indicates net buying/selling pressure. A declining OBV hints at a potential trend reversal, as volume precedes price. The OBV value is quite close to its smoothing line, indicating a balanced sentiment in the market.
- Time-Segmented Volume: This appears to be more bullish, suggesting institutional buying.
- Volume Spread: We see periods of high volume spread, indicating strong buying and selling forces.
- Accumulation/Distribution: The line suggests more distribution than accumulation recently, a potential bearish signal.
Price Projection: Given the current trend and indicators …
- Upside Potential: BTC could test its recent ATH at $36,000. Based on current momentum and external factors like institutional involvement, there's a 60% probability of reaching $36,500 within the next 2-3 weeks.
- Downside Risk: Considering negative news sentiment and potential regulatory challenges, BTC might face support at around $32,000. If this support breaks, we could see a further decline to $30,000 with a 40% probability over the next month.
Insights & Actionable Suggestions:
- Volatility & Volume: The ATR of 1102.50 indicates a high level of volatility for BTC in its daily price movement. The current volume is below its 10-day average, suggesting lower trading activity.
- RoC Indication: A positive RoC of 32.74 suggests the price momentum is currently bullish.
- OBV Insight: The OnBalanceVolume is slightly higher than its smoothing line, indicating that volume on up days is generally outpacing volume on down days. This can be a bullish sign.
- Performance Metrics: BTC has seen a robust performance YTD with a growth of 108.73%. It's essential to note that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend over the past year has been bullish.
Visual Representation: For a visual, consider plotting the mentioned levels on your chart -
- Support at $32,000 (red line)
- Resistance or next target at $36,500 (green line)
- Current price at $34,522.66 (blue line)
- Potential zones of interest (in a shaded region) between the support and resistance.
Additional Indicator Suggestion: Considering the current market conditions and to get a better understanding of the underlying trend strength, I'd suggest incorporating the Directional Movement Index (DMI). DMI can help ascertain if the trend is strong or weak, and when used with the ADX line, it can further validate the strength of bullish or bearish sentiments. This could be pivotal in the given circumstances where the market appears to be at an inflection point.
Lastly, given the data at hand, what are your thoughts on the potential for Market Makers or institutions manipulating the current BTC price, especially considering the evident bullish sentiment? Do you believe there might be an underlying play to hunt for retail liquidity?
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1D):
Initial Observations:
- Volume Profile: The chart showcases a fixed range volume profile to the left. The Point of Control (POC) - the price level with the most traded volume - is clearly visible around the 24848.00 mark.
- Volume-at-Time Histogram: There’s a significant volume spike around the range of $18000-$21000, indicating a possible support level or accumulation zone.
- Accumulation/Distribution & Time-Segmented Volume: The accumulation/distribution line is gradually inclining upwards, suggesting a net inflow of volume or accumulation. The time-segmented volume also points towards a bullish sentiment.
- Tesla Coil & Average True Range (ATR): The Tesla Coil's movement seems relatively stable. ATR, representing volatility, is increasing, suggesting possible strong price movements in the near term.
- Price Action: The recent price action exhibits a bullish momentum, breaking through a significant resistance level.
VSA-Derived Forecast:
- The strong accumulation and high traded volume at lower price levels hint at a bullish sentiment among traders. Institutions or market makers seem to have absorbed selling pressure around the $18000-$21000 range.
- The upward trend in accumulation/distribution points towards a continued bullish trend.
- Given the elevated ATR, expect larger price swings, both up and down, in the coming days.
Reconciliation with 1D Price Chart:
- The price is currently moving within an upward channel. Its recent breakout indicates a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
- While the price is approaching a Fibonacci level, considering the strong volume and accumulation signs, it's likely to test the next Fibonacci level upwards.
- The intersection of the VWAP at 24848.00 with the POC can act as a significant support level in the event of a pullback.
Improved Forecast:
Upside Potential: Given the strong bullish sentiment from both VSA and price action, expect Bitcoin to test the 0.236 Fibonacci level in the near term, which could act as a minor resistance. On breaking this, it could move towards the 0 level.
- Entry Point: Current level or on a minor pullback to the recent breakout zone.
- Stop Loss: Just below the VWAP at around 24000.
- Profit Target: 0.236 Fibonacci level as the first target and 0 level as the next target.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:3, given the distance between the current price and the stop loss compared to the potential upside.
- Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks.
- Probability: 70% for reaching the 0.236 level, 50% for reaching the 0 level.
Downside Potential: If there's a reversal, expect Bitcoin to find strong support around the VWAP (24848.00) due to the volume profile.
- Entry Point: If the price fails to maintain the breakout level.
- Stop Loss: Above the recent high.
- Profit Target: 24848.00.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.5.
- Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks.
- Probability: 30% given the current bullish sentiment.
. . . . . . . . .
PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1W):
The 1W (weekly) chart provides a wider perspective and thus offers a broader context to the previous 1D (daily) view. Here's a detailed analysis:
1. Price Action Analysis:
- Fibonacci levels: On this broader scale, we observe Bitcoin's price respecting various Fibonacci levels, notably the 0.236 and 0.618.
- Structure: The significant pullback after the previous bullish run suggests a possible correction or consolidation phase.
2. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- Volume-at-Time histograms: There's a clear Point-of-Control (POC) around the $27,650 level, indicating it's a key price point where a significant amount of trading has taken place.
- Accumulation/Distribution: The accumulation phase seems prominent before the surge that occurred around late 2020, suggesting institutional involvement. Post-2020, we see a distribution phase followed by a consolidation pattern.
- On Balance Volume: This shows that the volume is moving with the trend. The current trajectory indicates possible accumulation.
3. Volatility:
- Tesla Coil: Notably calmer, implying reduced volatility on the longer time frame.
- Average True Range (ATR): Volatility seems to be tapering off from previous highs. This reduction in volatility on a weekly chart could imply a significant move is brewing.
4. Trend Exhaustion:
- We're witnessing signs of consolidation post the previous rally. The intersecting points of the VWAP and other tools can provide potential points of volatility, which we should monitor closely.
Given this wider perspective:
Upside Potential: The break above the VWAP around $27,650 and stabilizing above the 0.236 Fibonacci level suggests potential for upside momentum. A break above recent highs could target the next Fibonacci level at 0.618.
- Entry: Around the current price level.
- Stop Loss: Below the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
- Profit Target: Just below the 0.618 Fibonacci.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.5.
- Time Horizon: 3-6 months.
- Probability: 60%.
Downside Potential: If Bitcoin's price fails to sustain above the VWAP and breaks below the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we could see a further decline towards the lower Fibonacci levels.
- Entry: On confirmed break below 0.236 Fibonacci.
- Stop Loss: Above recent swing high.
- Profit Target: Next Fibonacci level below.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.
- Time Horizon: 2-4 months.
- Probability: 40%.
Additional Indicator Suggestion: Given the importance of trend direction in this scenario, consider integrating the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) for this timeframe. The Parabolic SAR can provide dynamic entry and exit points and can be particularly useful in trending markets.
. . . . . . . . .
PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1h):
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- Volume Profile: A prominent high volume node appears around $33,000, indicating a strong support level. The Point-of-Control (POC) is visibly marked and rests just above this.
- Time-Segmented Volume: There's a noticeable surge in volume during the rapid price ascent, followed by a decline, suggesting a possible buying exhaustion.
Volatility:
- Tesla Coil: Relative stability is observed with slight periodic spikes, indicating contained volatility.
- Average True Range (ATR): No drastic peaks, which suggests that the price movement remains within a typical range for the time being.
Trend Exhaustion:
- The price is approaching the upper Fibonacci level (0.236). Should it break, we might expect a rally towards the next Fibonacci level (0.382). However, the consistent touch-points without breakthrough hint at resistance.
- The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) sits below the current price, suggesting the asset is trading at a premium.
Indicators:
- On Balance Volume (OBV): Displays an uptrend, suggesting buying pressure. However, the recent flattening can be a sign of a possible decline in this momentum.
- Volume Spread: The lack of prominent bearish bars with increased volume indicates that selling pressure isn't dominant.
Forecast & Trading Strategy:
-Short-Term Bullish Scenario (60% probability):
- Entry: $34,200
- Stop Loss: $33,400 (near the high volume node for support)
- Profit Target: $35,500 (approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci level)
- Risk:Reward: 1:2.6
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours.
-Short-Term Bearish Scenario (40% probability):
- Entry: $33,800 upon breaking below the support.
- Stop Loss: $34,200
- Profit Target: $33,000 (next volume node)
- Risk:Reward: 1:2
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours.
Session-Based Volatility:Considering typical crypto market behavior, anticipate increased volatility during the overlap of the Asian and European sessions and the opening of the New York session.
Trading windows:
- Asian-European Overlap: 6:00-9:00 UTC
- New York Session Opening: 13:00-15:00 UTC
Questions:
- Are there any macroeconomic events or news catalysts anticipated which might influence BTC's price action during our forecasted horizon?
- Considering your strategy revolves around Market Makers and institutional manipulation, have you noticed any recent patterns or behaviors in other assets that might indicate a larger play in Bitcoin?
. . . . . . . . .
PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (15m):
Price Action: The recent sharp decline indicates a strong bearish momentum, though the price has started consolidating within the $33,800 to $34,600 range. This consolidation is a good sign, showing that the decline might be temporary, or at least, we might experience some sideways movement for a while.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- We can spot a series of high volume spikes during price declines, indicating potential buying pressure or accumulation. The high volume during the decline around the 29th and subsequent upward movement confirms a potential bullish outlook.
- The Point of Control (POC) shown appears to be a significant support level where most trading has occurred. Prices tend to gravitate towards the POC, so this can be a potential target in retracement scenarios.
Indicators:
- Tesla Coil: Shows signs of potential volatility with multiple peaks, but currently, it's maintaining stability, hinting that the current volatility is diminishing and suggesting we might be entering a phase of price consolidation.
- Rate of Change (ROC): It's fluctuating around the 0 line, signaling a probable shift in momentum. However, the current consolidation means a lack of directional bias.
- Average True Range (ATR): Seems to be decreasing, aligning with the Tesla Coil's inference.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): A mild decline is noticed, hinting that selling volume has been slightly overpowering buying volume, but not decisively so.
- Time-Segmented Volume: The chart indicates more buying during certain periods, suggesting institutional interest at these levels.
- Volume Spread: Shows accumulation rather than distribution, reinforcing the bullish bias.
- Accumulation/Distribution: Displays a divergence. Even though the price made a lower low, the A/D made a higher low, suggesting underlying buying pressure. This could suggest potential upside if this trend continues.
Harmonic Patterns: There's a completion of a bullish harmonic pattern (potential Gartley or Bat) with the price touching the 0.786 retracement level and bouncing back, reinforcing a potential bullish move. Several harmonics appear to have reached completion, suggesting potential reversal zones. The intersection of these patterns with session-based volatility peaks can give ideal entry and exit points.
Session-based Volatility:
- It's evident that the price experiences heightened volatility during the overlap of the Asian (Tokyo) and European (London) sessions, and similarly, during the overlap of the European and American (New York) sessions. This suggests two potential windows for scalping opportunities: One shortly after the Tokyo open (when European traders are still active) and another after the London open (when American traders enter the fray).
Forecast and Trading Windows:
- Short-Term Bullish Bias: The recent bounce from the 0.786 level suggests a move towards the 0.382 and 0.236 levels as immediate targets. For scalping, consider long entries on pullbacks near significant support zones, like the POC or the lower boundary of the pitchfork.
Entry Point: Around $34,600 (near POC)
Stop Loss: $34,400 (below the recent swing low)
Profit Target 1: $34,800 (0.382 level)
Profit Target 2: $35,000 (0.236 level)
Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2 and 1:4 for the two targets, respectively.
Time Horizon: Given it's a 15m chart, this strategy might play out in the next 12-36 hours.
Probability: Medium-High. Multiple indicators and VSA align with this bullish outlook, but always be prepared for unexpected events, especially in the crypto space.
Enhancements based on the 15m chart:
- The shorter timeframe provides a granular view of price movements and allows for precise identification of entry and exit points.
- The session-based volatility observed aligns with typical forex market behaviors and can be used strategically for scalping.
Forecast: Given the indicators and chart patterns, there's a probable upside potential in the short term. The price might test the $34,600 resistance before determining its next move.
Trade Recommendations:
- Long Position:
- Entry: Around $34,100 (after confirming the breakout of consolidation)
- Stop Loss: $33,700 (below the 0.786 Fibonacci level)
- Profit Target: $34,600
- Risk:Reward ratio: Approx. 1:2
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours (given the 15m timeframe)
- Probability: ~60% (based on current indicators and patterns)
Contrarian Perspective: While multiple signs point to a short-term bullish move, it's crucial to consider the flip side. The price could reject the upper boundaries of the pitchfork, and a decrease in volume could indicate fading buyer interest. A clear break below the POC might negate the bullish outlook.
Remember to adjust positions based on real-time data, especially during high volatility sessions. Your thoughts?
. . . . . . . . .
Trade Ideas:
1D Chart - Swing Trading
The fixed range volume profile indicates substantial support in the vicinity of $32,500, making it an optimal region for establishing a position. The VWAP, marked at $24,848.00, acts as a historical average price, and the current price is well above this level, showing bullish sentiment. The intersection of Fibonacci levels with price action is noteworthy, especially around the 0.236 region. Accumulation/Distribution indicates a strong buying pressure, and the Tesla Coil along with Average True Range confirms the present volatility.
-Optimal Long Position:
- Entry Point: $34,400 (nearest to the day's low with support indicated by the volume profile).
- Stop Loss: $33,500 (just below daily ATR value, providing a buffer).
- Profit Target: $36,000 (near the 52-week range midpoint).
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:3.
- Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks.
- Probability: 65%.
Short Position: Though the current trend is bullish, potential trend exhaustion can be anticipated by observing the Price Action with Fibonacci channels and overlapping Pitchforks. The region above $36,000 might act as a strong resistance given the proximity to the 52-week high and the subsequent volume gap.
-Optimal Short Position:
- Entry Point: If Bitcoin drops below $34,200.
- Stop Loss: $34,700 (considering day's high).
- Profit Target: $32,500 (slightly above the ATR's lower range).
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:3.5.
- Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks.
- Probability: 35%.
. . . . . . . . .
1h Chart (and below) - Scalping
- Long Position:
- Entry Point: A buy order slightly above the recent consolidation zone, around $33,200.
- Stop Loss: $31,500 (Just below the Point of Control).
- Profit Target: The first target is at the next volume void around $34,700. A secondary target, if momentum persists, is at $36,500.
- Risk:Reward Ratio: For the first target, the risk:reward is roughly 1:3. For the secondary target, it's approximately 1:6.5.
- Time Horizon: Given the 1-hour chart, anticipate this trade to play out in the next 12-48 hours.
- Probability: Estimating a 65% chance of reaching the first target and a 40% chance of hitting the secondary target, given current consolidation and volume analysis.
. . . . . . . . .
Signs of a BottomAre we are still too close to the top to be at the bottom?
As painful as this year has been, we are still above the .382 of the trend up since the Covid low.
This could be a long process due to bear market rallies that have seemed ferocious. Folks who are long are happy, and those who are short are irritated.
Bear-market rallies: short lived recoveries of 5% or more that occur during the midst of a bear market before stocks fall to new lows.
The overall trend is DOWN. The trend can be your friend.
I do not think we are close to a bottom but we all have our own opinion.
Some signs a security are bottoming:
-Breaking trendlines to the upside. This can change later but can be useful.
-Reaching support areas in long term charts like weekly or monthly timeframes.
-Bullish candlestick patterns
-Oversold status on technical indicators, realizing that a security can stay oversold for extended periods of time and indicators change frequently. I am not a big indicator person but many depend heavily on them.
-Bullish chart patterns like double bottom, triple bottom patterns, reverse head and shoulder and cup and handle patterns. Basically, chart patterns that hint of the stock bottoming.
-Basing patterns like Rectangles and Triangles that are also known as consolidation patterns.
-Inflection point-The inflection point refers to an event that changes the progress of a company, economy or geopolitical situation. It is the turning point after a dramatic change.
-The security reclaims it's moving averages.
-Relative volume.
-Capitulation: When price has become so low that here are few or no sellers left. LOL. How do we know this? We don't but looking at the size of the volume bars and all of the above can help. If you see 10 monster long red candles in a row (exaggeration) then those candles contain a lot of sellers. If fewer sellers exist and are selling at lower prices, people will be looking to sell high and if buyers remain, the prices of the securities will rise. They say the stocks who led the rally up are often the last to hit the bottom. I do not know why for sure, but maybe because there are more buyers inside the leaders than the stocks who did not see the gains that AAPL or MSFT saw?
Patience can be a virtue.
Ideas are welcome as I am sure I did not hit every method of finding a bottom. Also, I am curious to find out how many are bullish or are you bearish about the market right now?
No recommendation
GOLD👑 (XAUUSD) KEY LEVEL TO WATCH 👀AND WHYMany skills are required for trading successfully in the financial markets. They include the abilities to evaluate a company's fundamentals and to determine the direction of a market trend. But neither of these technical skills is as important as the trader's mindset.
The recognition of patterns and its body of knowledge of how to react and what to expect helps a trader's success.
Traders are always analysing Trends and Reversals. Their eternal question for traders is Can the trend continues?. Knowing trends and trend reversals are critical for any trader’s success.
Chart patterns classification of 'Continuous' or 'Reversal' patterns helps traders to identify specific patterns and expect their outcome from current price action.
Traders move prices between key support and resistance areas (a tug of war) as their perception shifts between optimism and pessimism. This movement of price adhering to key support and resistance areas create chart patterns.
Reversal patterns exhibit a total shift of trends from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish in a single pattern structure.
Examples of the reversal patterns are 'Head and Shoulders, Double Tops and Bottoms.
A knowledge of reversal patterns helps traders to estimate the 'end of trends' to execute trades in a timely fashion for maximum gains.
This knowledge also helps traders to time the trades in the opposite direction and to place smaller stop levels.
Here I discuss one of the key reversal patterns
Chart Pattern and present examples of them.
GOLD has been trading an ABC Bullish Pattern from 1804.76, little I know about ABCS:
One of the best ways to confirm symmetry in the markets is to check price and time using two or more cluster confirmations. Another key method to compute these patterns is to use percentage change of price between market highs and market lows. Symmetry is a science by itself, and traders take great advantage of knowing the potential turning points and levels using these methods.
Symmetry is visible in all markets and in all time-frames. Symmetric rallies and declines give traders an advantage to determine the key turning points. A cluster of similar extensions and similar retracements at key price ranges, or some important levels provide insights into future significant resistance and support levels. In addition to knowing key turning points, the benefits of trading symmetric price and time cluster levels include low-risk trades.
The ABC Chart pattern and its related AB=CD Chart Pattern are prime examples of "Symmetry" in the markets. These "Harmonic" patterns help traders to identify buying and selling opportunities in all markets and in all time-frames. The ABC and AB=CD patterns are first described by H.M. Gartley in his book 'Profits in the Stock Market." (1935). The main advantages of trading harmonic patterns are that they allow traders to determine risk vs. reward ratios beforehand as they forecast key market turning points and profit targets for traders. The ABC pattern (can be a continuous or reversal pattern)
The key point in identifying an ABC and AB=CD patterns is to correctly detect the A, B, and C key inflection (Pivot) points in a chart while they are forming. These inflection points are determined from key swing highs and lows of various levels, and for its correction waves to determine distinct "swings." The potential C point is usually forecasted by the fib. retracements (0.38 to 0.618) of AB Swing. Once A, B, and C points (and AB, BC legs) are identified, a projection algorithm is applied to compute the Potential Completion Zone (PCZ). This PCZ area is where ABC pattern is expected to complete and may signal continuation of its trend in the first trend direction (AB). Following the completion of BC leg, the projections of AB and BC legs (using fib. ratios)
The swing legs (AB and BC) in ABC pattern are generally in symmetrical proportions both in price and time with consistent slopes. The tractable CD leg has a harmonic relation with symmetry for AB and BC swings. The ABC bullish structures are formed after a prolonged prior down trend or consolidation trends.
A Pattern Completion Zone (PCZ) is computed using AB swing and Fibonacci ratios (50-88.6% of AB). This PCZ area is where 'C' pivot is formed at the end of BC swing and to signal completion of ABC pattern.
Trade Entry:
After ABC pattern is completed, it is advisable to wait for the pattern to confirm a reversal signal using any momentum-based indicator or price confirmation mechanisms. I use various confirmation and trade entry methods, but one of the methods is price crossing 2-bar high after 'C' in ABC Bullish pattern or a 2-bar low after 'C' in ABC bearish pattern.
Stop:
A Stop is placed few ticks below C (in Bullish) or few ticks above C (in Bearish) levels.
Targets:
The ABC Pattern targets are computed using the AB and BC swings. The height pattern (AB) is used to project target levels from (-level using fib. ratios. The first target zone is (62-79% AB) from 'C' and second target zone is (127-162% AB). A secondary target level is set at 100% AB Level .
In resume price has reached the 100% AB: 2040.55.
Now what could we expect from price?
As mentioned above The ABC Chart pattern and its related AB=CD Chart Pattern are prime examples of "Symmetry" in the markets.
Gold on the daily chart the price resembles an AB=CD and the price is trading below the entry level 2012.36.
Stops: 2068.32
Targets:
38% AD: 1928.00
50% AD: 1890.61
62% AD: 1853.38
79% AD: 1800.41
Let me explain more about AB=CD patterns below
QQQ long - continuation diamondQQQ long - continuation diamond
The continuation diamond is a stock chart pattern that typically occurs within an existing uptrend or downtrend. It is a consolidation pattern, indicating a temporary pause in the prevailing trend before it continues in the same direction. The pattern resembles a diamond shape on the price chart, hence its name.
Here are the characteristics of a continuation diamond pattern:
Existing Trend: The continuation diamond pattern forms within the context of an existing trend, whether it is an uptrend or a downtrend. It signifies a temporary consolidation or indecision before the trend resumes.
Contraction: Initially, the price experiences a contraction or narrowing range. This contraction is depicted by converging trendlines, with lower highs and higher lows. Traders can draw trendlines connecting the swing highs and swing lows to identify the diamond shape.
Volume: During the formation of the continuation diamond pattern, trading volume tends to decrease. This decrease in volume indicates reduced participation and indecision among market participants.
Breakout Direction: The continuation diamond pattern suggests the potential continuation of the existing trend. Once the contraction phase ends, and the price breaks out of the pattern, it is expected to continue moving in the direction of the preceding trend.
Breakout Confirmation: Confirmation of the pattern occurs when the price breaks out of the diamond shape with increased volume. Traders often look for a decisive breakout above the upper trendline in an uptrend or below the lower trendline in a downtrend.
Price Target: The price target of the continuation diamond pattern can be estimated by measuring the height of the diamond pattern at its widest point and projecting it in the direction of the breakout.
It is important to note that not all diamond-shaped patterns on a stock chart are continuation diamonds. Other types of diamond patterns, such as diamond tops and diamond bottoms, have different implications and are reversal patterns rather than continuation patterns.
As with any chart pattern, it is crucial to combine the continuation diamond pattern with other technical analysis tools and indicators to increase the accuracy of predictions and make informed trading decisions. Additionally, it's recommended to practice proper risk management and consider other market factors before executing trades based solely on chart patterns.
us 100How Forex Chart Patterns Work
Chart patterns form due to the interaction between the buyers and sellers, which generally leads to the various chart patterns that you can see on your chart every single day.
Generally speaking, all chart patterns are looking at the interaction of supply and demand.
In other words, this constant battle between buyers and sellers so to speak gives birth to the many chart patterns you’re probably trading right now.
Let’s move on…
And see how to identify chart patterns
See below:
How to Read Chart Patterns
Forex chart patterns are a lot like those unrealistically perfect Instagram models.
The Instagram images look great but when you start to see the true reality, you’re not that excited anymore.
It’s easy to only see those typical cases where chart patterns worked, but it’s really hard to see when they didn’t work. We’re conditioned to avoid pain so; it’s easy to ignore the instances when a chart pattern didn’t work.
So, in order to be able to trade chart patterns like the pros, you need to have a systematic approach to reading chart patterns. Otherwise, you’ll continue chasing the fake Instagram models. But, when reality hits you, it will hit you where it hurts the most aka your wallet.
Now…
Let’s see how to recognize chart patterns like the pros.
There are really 3 major things that can be applied to any chart pattern:
The first step is to assess the size and quality of the chart pattern relative to surrounding price action
The second step is the location of the chart pattern. Where is the chart pattern located within the trend? Key swing high and swing low, Support and resistance levels, pivot points, etc.
The last step is to assess the potential profit margin. If it doesn’t offer a minimum risk:reward ratio of 1:1, it’s not a good
dxy
How Forex Chart Patterns Work
Chart patterns form due to the interaction between the buyers and sellers, which generally leads to the various chart patterns that you can see on your chart every single day.
Generally speaking, all chart patterns are looking at the interaction of supply and demand.
In other words, this constant battle between buyers and sellers so to speak gives birth to the many chart patterns you’re probably trading right now.
Let’s move on…
And see how to identify chart patterns
See below:
How to Read Chart Patterns
Forex chart patterns are a lot like those unrealistically perfect Instagram models.
The Instagram images look great but when you start to see the true reality, you’re not that excited anymore.
It’s easy to only see those typical cases where chart patterns worked, but it’s really hard to see when they didn’t work. We’re conditioned to avoid pain so; it’s easy to ignore the instances when a chart pattern didn’t work.
So, in order to be able to trade chart patterns like the pros, you need to have a systematic approach to reading chart patterns. Otherwise, you’ll continue chasing the fake Instagram models. But, when reality hits you, it will hit you where it hurts the most aka your wallet.
Now…
Let’s see how to recognize chart patterns like the pros.
There are really 3 major things that can be applied to any chart pattern:
The first step is to assess the size and quality of the chart pattern relative to surrounding price action
The second step is the location of the chart pattern. Where is the chart pattern located within the trend? Key swing high and swing low, Support and resistance levels, pivot points, etc.
The last step is to assess the potential profit margin. If it doesn’t offer a minimum risk:reward ratio of 1:1, it’s not a good
RVN Head and Shoulder formationInformation obtained from Investopedia:
What Is A Head And Shoulders Pattern?
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that resembles a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.
The head and shoulders pattern forms when a stock's price: Rises to a peak and subsequently declines back to the base of the prior up-move. Then, the price rises above the former peak to form the "nose" and then again declines back to the original base. Then finally, the stock price rises again, but to the level of the first, initial peak of the formation before declining back down to the base or neckline of chart patterns one more time.
Key Takeaways
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that resembles a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest.
A head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.
The head and shoulders chart pattern is popular and easy to spot pattern once a traders are aware of what they are watching for. The pattern appears on all times frames and can therefore be used by day and swing traders as well as investors. Entry levels, stop levels and price targets make the formation easy to implement, as the chart pattern provides important and easy-to-see levels.
Formation of the pattern:
Left shoulder: Price rise followed by a left price peak, followed by a decline.
Head: Price rise again forming a higher peak.
Right shoulder: A decline occurs once again, followed by a rise forming the right peak which is lower than the head.
What Does A Head And Shoulders Pattern Tell You?
A head and shoulders pattern is comprised of three component parts:
After long bullish trends, the price rises to a peak and subsequently declines to form a trough.
The price rises again to form a second high substantially above the initial peak and declines again.
The price rises a third time, but only to the level of the first peak, before declining once more.
The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head. The line connecting the first and second troughs is called the neckline.
Head and shoulders patterns can also signal that a downward trend is about to reverse into an upward trend. In this case, the stocks price reaches three consecutive lows, separated by temporary rallies. Of these, the second trough is the lowest (the head) and the first and third are slightly shallower (the shoulders). The final rally after the third dip signals that the bearish trend has reversed and prices are likely to keep moving up.
Smells like a fakeout…Looks like a fakeout…Is that the fakeout?Here on the XRPUSD 1day chart we have a pattern of a massive head and shoulders on xrp formed conveniently during a downward trend with a breakdown target of negative 20 cents. The Stoch RSI also bottomed out and is ready to travel upward again so there's not enough bearish momentum available to warrant such a breakdown. The downtrend makes it very unlikely a good head and shoulders because the h&s chart patterns that get validated are usually ones that act as reversal patterns at the top of trends not continuation patterns.Sure there are rare exceptions of when a continuation h&s happens but in reality those are just failed patterns that didnt trigger in my eyes. Still with it looking so obviously like a fakeout it makes one wonder if the whales are trying to fake us out with a fake fakeout...thats the only way I see something like this triggering. On the bitfinex chart this pattern is invalid but It appears to be valid for now on bitstamp,coinbase,and kraken. Its for this fake fakeout fakeout reason that I leave this idea neutral....but with a breakdown target of negative 20 cents, it seems like a ridiculous notion to believe it ever could be anything other than a fakeout.
EURUSD 7 Dimension Sell Trade Idea Top-Down View (H4 Analysis):
The H4 timeframe shows that the price has recently formed a Change of Character (CHoCH) and appears to be making a retracement. Despite this pullback, it hasn’t mitigated the higher-timeframe Points of Interest (POI), particularly the unmitigated Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). Observing H1, we see considerable volatility and uncertainty, possibly indicating attempts to shake out weak-handed traders before a deeper corrective move toward the H1 internal extreme POI for mitigation.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
🟢Time Frame: H4
🟢Swing Structure:
Bullish with CHoCH: The swing structure is bullish on the H4, with a recent CHoCH indicating a potential shift. An inducement has been observed, and price has just entered the discounted zone, which aligns with the 61% Fibonacci retracement level.
POI and Liquidity Levels: The area of interest includes the 61% & 88% Fibonacci level, liquidity sweeps, and support at the demand zone. Waiting for price to reach this zone and observing its reaction will be critical.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
Double Bottom: Forming as a potential reversal pattern at the discounted zone.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
Long Wick & Momentum Candles: Recent candles show long wicks and momentum on the downside, indicating that bears are still in control of the current session, albeit with limited momentum strength for long-term sustainability.
Volume:
Moderate volume suggests that while sellers are currently dominant, the bearish momentum may not hold for an extended period, reinforcing the expectation of a retracement.
Momentum (RSI):
🟢 Range Shift: Momentum has shifted from bearish to sideways with multiple bullish divergences, suggesting a loss of bearish strength and a potential for reversal or retracement.
Volatility (Bollinger Bands):
🟢 Middle Band Breach: The price has dropped below the middle band, indicating a slight bearish bias.
Expansion Cool-Down: Following a period of expansion, price appears to be consolidating and "cooling down" before the next directional move.
🟢Strength (ROC and Consolidation):
Consolidation Phase: ROC reflects consolidation, supporting the idea that the bearish momentum may pause or weaken, aligning with the expectation of a retracement or sideways movement.
🟢Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Probability: 65%
This setup has a moderate confidence level for a short-term sell entry, considering the confluence of factors on both the H4 and refined lower time frames.
🟢Trade Setup:
Entry Details:
Entry Time Frame: 15-Minute (15M)
Entry TF Structure: Bearish (for counter-trend entry in a corrective move)
Point of Interest (POI): Extreme Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Trade Execution:
💡 Decision: Sell Limit
🚀 Entry: 1.8747
✋ Stop Loss: 1.0888
🎯 Take Profit: 1.07927
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 6.94 RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 1 Day
SUMMARY:
This H4-based top-down analysis with entry refinement on the 15M timeframe provides a short-term sell opportunity within a bullish higher timeframe structure. Price action, volume, and momentum indicators suggest a potential bearish pullback toward the 15M POI, aligning with the 61% Fibonacci level and significant liquidity areas. The setup targets a short-term retracement with a high reward-to-risk ratio, with the expectation that price may retrace to mitigate lower timeframe liquidity levels before resuming the bullish trend.
7 Dimension Comprehensive Analysis FOR NVDAThis analysis focuses on a potential trade setup using the 7-Dimension Analysis approach on the Daily (D1) timeframe, with an additional H1 timeframe consideration for a counter-trade. Below is the detailed breakdown:
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily (D1)
Swing Structure:
The overall structure is bullish, with the market having taken inducement and currently moving toward completing its corrective swing move. The corrective move is nearing its extreme levels, with one pullback already completed and a proper bearish internal structure observed.
An Extreme Order Block (OB) is marked as the Point of Interest (POI) right at the discounted zone of the swing, around the 80% Fibonacci level. This area also aligns with a prior demand zone where the last impulsive move started, making it a strong area of interest for a potential buy entry.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
A reversal pattern in the form of a Rounding Pattern is forming, with a higher low (HL) internal leg that could lead this swing further down before it potentially reverses.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
After a Tower Top, the candlesticks have broken out to the downside in a narrow range, accompanied by gaps and momentum. The breakout was followed up by an engulfing candle, with a Dark Cloud Cover pattern in play, signaling strong bearish control in the market at this point.
Volume:
🟢 Despite the corrective move, there hasn't been a drastic decrease in volume, suggesting that this move is still part of a corrective phase. This implies that a significant buying opportunity may present itself at the POI.
Momentum RSI:
🟢 The momentum has shifted into a sideways zone after a long rally, with a range shift having occurred. However, according to Andrew Cardwell’s RSI analysis (Grandfather-Father-Son module), the overall market sentiment remains extremely bullish, indicating that this down move could just be a correction, and buying at the POI would be advisable.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 After an expansion phase, the market may take some time to cool down, so it's not surprising if the price enters a sideways or corrective range for some time at these levels.
Strength ADX:
The ADX also suggests that this is merely a corrective move, with a strong potential for continuation of the previous bullish trend after the correction.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 Stars)
Probability: 80%
This setup has a high probability, with strong indications that the corrective move will provide a buying opportunity at the identified POI.
Planned Entries:
Counter Trade Entry (Sell):
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ POI: Counter Trade Gap Down
💡 Decision: Sell Limit
🚀 Entry: 114.41
✋ Stop Loss: 120.1
🎯 Take Profit: 86.5
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 5RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 20 days
Main Trade Entry (Buy):
✔️ Entry Time Frame: Daily (D1)
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish
☑️ POI: Extreme POI
💡 Decision: Buy Limit
🚀 Entry: 87
✋ Stop Loss: 74
🎯 Take Profit: 180
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 7RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 60 to 180 Days
SUMMARY:
The analysis suggests a dual approach—first, a short-term counter-trade sell position based on the H1 structure with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, followed by a long-term buy position in line with the bullish daily structure. The corrective phase in the daily timeframe is expected to present a strong buying opportunity at the identified POI, with a highly probable chance of significant upside thereafter. The two trade setups provide different time horizons and risk profiles, catering to both short-term traders and longer-term investors.
1:7 Risk To reward Sell setup For ADBE
This analysis delves into a potential trade setup on the D1 (Daily) timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts. Below is a detailed breakdown:
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: D1 (Daily)
Swing Structure:
The current swing structure is bullish but shows signs of exhaustion. After a swing liquidity sweep and meeting key parameters like inducement, the impulsive swing move was unable to sustain itself above the previous higher high (hH) level.
All Points of Interest (POIs) have been mitigated, and after sweeping the liquidity, the price is likely to close in the Premier zone of the swing, signaling a strong possibility of a sharp sell-off in the coming move.
A "Whale Scoop" entry model is preferred here, with resistance and supply zones also located at these levels. The fake breakout further supports the expectation of a deep correction.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
Reversal pattern: A double top has formed right at the top, alongside a shakeout, indicating a potential reversal.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
The record session ended with a long wick hammer right at the swing level, signaling the probable start of another corrective swing move.
Volume:
🟢 There was no significant volume during the entire impulsive move, which suggests that the move may have been a trap. This, combined with the fake-out trap, confirms the likelihood of an impending sell-off.
Momentum RSI:
🟢 Although the momentum is still in the bullish zone with no range shift yet, a powerful divergence indicates that a substantial amount of bullish momentum is about to be exhausted. Caution is advised before considering any buy positions.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 The expansion phase of the Bollinger Bands is likely coming to an end, suggesting that the price might enter a sideways or corrective phase for some time.
Strength ADX:
The ADX still reflects a bullish trend, but given the other indicators, this may be lagging behind the actual price action.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3 Stars)
Probability: 60%
The trade setup has a moderate probability, indicating a cautious approach with potential for significant reward if the expected correction occurs.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: Daily
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish Liquidity Sweep
☑️ POI: Fakeout at swing level
💡 Decision: Initiate a Sell position.
🚀 Entry: 578
✋ Stop Loss: 589
🎯 Take Profit: 483
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:7
🕛 Expected Duration: 20 days
SUMMARY:
This Daily analysis suggests a counter-trend sell opportunity in a bullish structure showing signs of weakening. The presence of a double top, fake breakout, and lack of volume during the impulsive move all point toward an impending bearish correction. The setup is given a 60% probability rating, reflecting a cautious yet potentially lucrative opportunity. The recommended trade involves selling at 578 with a stop loss at 589 and a take profit at 483, yielding a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:7. The expected duration for this trade is 20 days, and it should be monitored closely for signs of the anticipated sell-off.
7 Dimensions BUY SETUP FOR EURCHFCore Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
This analysis focuses on identifying a potential trade setup using Smart Money Concepts on the H1 timeframe. Here's the detailed breakdown:
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H1
Swing Structure:
The market is in a bullish structure with back-to-back Breaks of Structure (BOS). After the last impulsive move, the corrective phase with 4 minor pullbacks has reached its conclusion, characterized by a bearish internal structure. The last swing involved a liquidity sweep that mitigated the Extreme Order Block (OB) and Sell Order Block (SOB) in the Discounted zone. This scenario creates a high probability for the initiation of another impulsive bullish move.
The same area also acts as a support or demand zone, further strengthening the potential for a bullish reversal.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
Reversal: A Double Bottom with a fakeout at the Point of Interest (POI), signaling potential bullish strength.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
A long wick pin bar, known as one of the strongest reversal signals, has appeared right at the POI.
Multiple momentum candles observed before the pin bar indicate climactic player activities and profit-taking.
A Tweezer top and Narrow Range 6 candles breakout have also been observed, adding to the reversal signal.
Volume:
🟢 A significant volume spike has been noticed right at the pin bar, which is a strong sign of a potential reversal.
Momentum RSI:
🟢 The current price is in a bearish to sideways zone, but a powerful divergence suggests that the market is preparing for a shift in momentum towards bullishness.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 After a massive volatile move, Bollinger Bands contraction has started. The upcoming breakout will be crucial in determining the next move. Based on price action, an upper band breakout is anticipated, as the price has formed a Headfake and W pattern with multiple Band Punchers.
Strength ADX:
ADX is currently neutral, indicating a potential shift in momentum is brewing.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 Stars)
Probability: 75%
This trade setup has a high probability, indicating strong confidence in a potential bullish move.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish
☑️ POI: Mitigated Extreme POI
💡 Decision: Open Buy position immediately.
🚀 Entry: 0.9480
✋ Stop Loss: 0.9445
🎯 Take Profit: 0.9648
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 3 RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 2 days
SUMMARY:
This trade setup on the H1 timeframe suggests a strong bullish opportunity. The market structure, volume, and momentum all point towards a potential reversal after a corrective phase. The pin bar at the POI, coupled with significant volume and bullish divergence in RSI, reinforces the likelihood of a bullish move. With a 75% probability, this trade setup offers a good risk-to-reward ratio of 3:1. The trade should be monitored closely, especially around the key levels of entry and take profit.
7 Dimension 4RR Sell Setup for NZDCAD Core Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
Based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, the following analysis has been conducted:
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
Swing Structure:
Bearish swing structure with a Break of Structure (BOS) after taking inducement.
Corrective swing move has nearly mitigated everything with 3 pullbacks, forming a corrective internal bullish structure.
At the Point of Interest (POI), we see three key elements: Extreme Order Block (OB), Fair Value Gap (FVG), and Liquidity (LIQ) resting above the double top at the Premier zone of the swing.
All of these factors align to create a strong area for sellers.
Entry Model: Regular SMC
Resistance: Demand zone is prominent.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
Reversal: A double top pattern has been identified.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
Long wicks have appeared multiple times at the top, indicating rejection.
Momentum candles have also formed in the same area of interest, showing significant market activity.
A classic tower top candlestick pattern with valid parameters has been observed.
Volume:
🟢 Substantial volume has been observed in this area after a long time.
Despite the volume, it has been unable to cross the point of interest, indicating profit booking and a show of strength from sellers.
Momentum RSI:
🟢 After a strong bullish momentum, the RSI reversed from the overbought level and shifted into a range inside the sideways to bearish zone.
A divergence between the last two highs is supported by loud moves, signaling that sellers are still in control.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Transition from contraction to expansion has occurred with a proper squeeze breakout.
Walking on the band suggests that the bullish volatile move is nearing its end.
Price is forming an "M" pattern in Bollinger Band terms, which is a strong bearish signal.
Strength ADX: Sideways yet, indicating neutral strength in the market.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
All dimensions are in favor of a bearish move.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ POI: Marked
💡 Decision: Sell limit
🚀 Entry: 0.8287
✋ Stop loss: 0.8333
🎯 Take profit: 0.8110
😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 4
🕛 Expected Duration: 15 Days
SUMMARY:
The analysis suggests a strong bearish setup with all dimensions aligning in favor of sellers. A sell limit order is recommended at 0.8287 with a stop loss at 0.8333 and a take profit at 0.8110. The trade offers a favorable risk to reward ratio of 4, and the expected duration is 15 days.
7 Dimension Sell setup for EURUSDCore Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
😇7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: 15M
1: Swing Structure: The market has formed a bearish BOS after taking inducement. Now, the focus is on the corrective swing move as a pullback. The internal structure also supports a bullish corrective move toward the external POI, OB & BB with proper FVG and LIQ resting area in the discounted zone. We are using one regular entry module for this.
2: Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS:
Reversal: Triple top is already formed at the top of the swing.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS:
We will check at the POI zone.
3: Volume:
🟢 Fixed range indicates full bearish control at the POI.
🟢 Volume during correction is almost dry.
4: Momentum RSI:
🟢 In strong bearish zone with proper bearish range shift and classic.
🟢 Grandfather-Father-Son entries based on H4 TF are intact and formed.
5: Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 About to break after contraction, possible squeeze breakout in the lower band. Walking on the band is also expected here.
6: Strength: Based on ADX, bears fully control the market at this level.
7: Sentiment: Strong bearish.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: 15 min
✅ Entry TF Structure: BOS Bear
☑️ Trend line breakout: Awaited
💡 Decision: Sell limit
🚀 Entry: 1.08475
✋ Stop loss: 1.08580
🎯 Take profit: 1.07601
😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 7RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 2 days
SUMMARY: Analysis supports a sell position based on Smart Money Concepts methodology, with strong bearish signals from structure, volume, momentum, volatility, strength, and sentiment.
7 Dimension Sell Idea For AUDNZD Core Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
😇7 Dimension Analysis
Market: At monthly rejection or supply zone
Time Frame: H4
1: Swing Structure: From the monthly zone, the market formed a CHOCH with inducement, giving a corrective swing move as the 1st pullback mitigated the extreme wick OB and swept liquidity at the Premier zone.
🟢 Entry Model: ABCD
2: Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS:
Reversal: Consolidation rectangle at supply level. Shakeout reversal Wyckoff method.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS:
Long wick: Hammer or hanging man but at the wrong place indicates a reversal. Momentum: Strict engulfing at the highest candle.
3: Volume:
Observed a very large selling volume on July 11th while the price was making new highs. This volume can be considered selling volume or profit-taking volume. Based on this volume, there is a very high chance that the price will go down.
4: Momentum RSI
🟢 Bullish to sideways zone with a proper range shift and multiple bearish divergences at the top indicate a sudden loss of momentum. Based on this, there is a high chance the price will go down.
5: Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Contraction has started; the price might range for some sessions. After this, expect a lower band squeeze breakout and continuation to lower "walking on the band" condition. Here, a BB M pattern is also forming and a band puncher at the highest candle.
6: Strength: Everything is neutral yet.
7: Sentiment: Sell
✔️ Entry Time Frame: 15m
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
✔ Entry Time POI: Mitigated
☑️ Trend line breakout: Yes
💡 Decision: Sell Limit
🚀 Entry: 1.1111
✋ Stop Loss: 1.1133
🎯 Take Profit: 1.1020
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 4 RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 10 days
SUMMARY: Analysis supports a strong sell position based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, with expected bearish momentum and high potential reward.