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es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count . this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing. wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit. pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown. there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation. 💸
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 15 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 15 Week Short from 4674 was good, followed by spring from the demand line of the uptrend channel. Market rebound from demand line of channel back into the possibility to test 4712. Weekly: Average volume down bar closing off high = weakness. Wait and see if weakness will flow over to lower time frame. Daily: Average volume up bar closing off high = possible weakness. Wait for next bar to confirm. H4: Climatic up bar followed by high volume up bar closing off high = Some weakness expected. Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4764 4733 4711 4674 4657 4613 4590 4551 4515 4472 4411 4381 4333 4267 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. ES1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
ES1! Key Levels into EOY 2023ES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish: 0.786 Levels clear development of structure into EOY. KL: 4741.25 Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) now approached 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This was a high area of interest as PA reverted to mean because it was where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)// Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9558// VIX 12.04 Price at time of study 4693.75// KL: 4741.25 Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Risk On
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GroundNinja
ES1! Analysis Update into OPEX, FED, and EOYES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish: +8% shift of structure upwards and price rediscovery from March 2022 levels. A period of inside candles preceding May 8,2023 reflected support at sigma 2. Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) is now approaching 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This is a high area of interest as PA reverts to mean because: it is where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)// Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9786// Price at time of study 4483.25// Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Neutral to risk on
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GroundNinja
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEKES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEK Price broke 4303. If this becomes support, next target level will likely be 4584. Scenario Planning: 1) Long on support at 4303 2) If false break, short on rejection at recent high / lower high. Note: Longer Term: 4150 need to hold as support in order for long trend to remain intact. Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = NTC weakness Daily: Low(er) vol up bar S>D close off high = NTC weakness *NTC = Non Trend Changing Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4584-4525 4303 4150 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For educational purpose only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 05 WEEKES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 05 WEEK Once price breaks out of 4303 and it becomes support, market will likely test next level 4584. Scenario Planning: 1) Continuation long: Long on retracement Note: Longer Term: 4150 need to hold as support in order for long trend to remain intact. Volume Analysis: Daily/Weekly: Ave vol up bar close toward high = NTC strength Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4584-4525 4303 4150 *NTC = Non Trend Changing Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For educational purpose only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
ES1! Fibonacci LevelsES1! Fibonacci Levels on 6wk horizon. Confluence observed with PA in sustained level between Key SMAS 20, 200. Confluence observed with 0.618 and 0.5 with areas of fair value. Reliability of measure supported using linear regression with pearsons r of 0.97554. A bear flag would be confirmed with breach of sigma 2 :3888.50 and KLs 3973.75, 3515.50 (and rediscovery of September 2022 and October 2020 prices). > 4165.75: 4319.25, 4509 (sigma 1 level confluent with fib 0.236); Where RSI of 54.43 x upward slope supports risk on auction // Price at time of study 4140.25// Upcoming earnings will be factored in alongside economic events, breadth, and treasury market volatility// Bias: Neutral to risk on
CME_MINI:ES1!
by GroundNinja
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 20 ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 20 Scenario1 rotation play yielded 120pts gain for week of 13 Feb. Scenario Planning: 1) Rotational play = trade at boundary of 4175-4061 zone 2) Short on test and reject of 4094-4048 zone Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = Minor demand H4: Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4175 4061-4048 3928-3788 3580 3502 3231 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 06ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 06 Last week's Scenario1 short and breakout trade both offers TP of 50pts each. Market is back into supply zone (circled), 3 TFs showing supply coming in. Temporary short opportunity may arise if market moves up on lower volume and narrow spread. Scenario Planning: 1) Short if 4209-4175 is resisted 2) Long on support and acceptance at 4094-4048 level when breakout level is tested. Volume Analysis: Weekly: High vol up bar close off high = supply coming in Daily: Higher vol down bar, possible 2BR formation = supply coming in H4: High vol down bar close at low (UT) = S>D. If up bar(s) after this is narrow spread and low volume, we may have a temporary short opportunity Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4175 4094-4048 3928-3788 3580 3502 3231 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01 After rotation between 3788-3928, market breakout for long opportunity. Temporary weakness may be expected. Wait at high levels to short is preferred Scenario Planning: 1) Short at rejection of 4175-4094 2) Long test and accept of rotation area 4175-4094 Volume Analysis: Weekly: Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand Daily: Low vol level bar close toward high = No Demand H4: Low Vol narrow spread up bar close off high = No Demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4175 4094 3928-3788 3580 3502 3231 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677