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Microsoft Corp Daily (19.07.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis shows the following:
The (MSFT) share follows the support of the long term trend line (green) on this uptrend. The last three days the share made a sharp movement. All this development is above the KUMO, which means that the MSFT is bullish in long term. The weekly diagram shows bullish trend as the monthly too.
So the first think in mind is that MSFT has stabilize its price over the $40 and now the $43.71 (1.618 of fib is a support). MACD is bullish now and RSI reach the overbought levels. The volume is more than the usual.
There is no special candlestick pattern and the gap has covered. The share is over the KUMO and it is over the Tenkan Sen (green line) and Kijun Sen (blue line) too.
There is no special pattern. The 1.618 fib as we have mentioned above now is a support.
There is no sign of bearishness and all indicators agree for bullish. Usually Microsoft does not surprise us with the expected earnings so ... it seems long.
Microsoft Microsoft Corporation reported the growth of the quarterly revenue of the Azure cloud service amid the transformation of people to remote work and study. Cloud service revenue in the third fiscal quarter increased 23% to $14.6 billion.
MSFT has recently broken through the resistance price zone of 230-227 and tested it. I look forward to continued growth.
Best regards EXCAVO
Microsoft | Fundamental Analysis | Must Read...Microsoft's stock price reached an all-time high after the tech behemoth published its first-quarter earnings report last Tuesday. The company's revenue increased 22% year-over-year to $45.3 billion, beating analysts' forecasts by $1.3 billion. Adjusted earnings surged 25% to $2.27 per share, $0.19 above expectations.
For the second quarter, Microsoft management expects revenue growth of 16% to 18% year-over-year, which also beat analysts' expectations of 14%.
Microsoft's performance is majestic, but some investors may not crave to buy its stock after its price has already risen almost 50% in 2021. Let's look at a few reasons to buy Microsoft stock, as well as one argument for selling it, to see if it is still an attractive investment at these prices.
First and foremost, of course, is the growth of Microsoft Cloud Computing.
Microsoft's dramatic growth over the past seven years has been booste by the expansion of its cloud services, particularly Azure, Office 365, Dynamics, LinkedIn, and other cloud software. The business records the performance of these businesses together as "Microsoft Cloud."
In the first quarter, Microsoft Cloud's revenue grew 36% year over year to $20.7 billion, matching the 36% growth rate in the fourth quarter.
Revenue from Azure, the most thoroughly supervised segment of Microsoft Cloud, grew 48% on a constant currency basis. That represents an acceleration from Azure's 45% growth on a constant currency basis in the fourth quarter and should allay fears of a possible slowdown.
Azure's share of the global cloud infrastructure market also grew from 19% to 21% between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021, according to Canalys. That puts it in second place behind Amazon Web Services (AWS), whose year-over-year market share was unchanged at 32%.
Microsoft probably could not have achieved this growth without Satya Nadella, who took over as third CEO in 2014 and aggressively expanded these services with his mantra "mobile first, cloud first."
Second, we should not forget the recovery of favorable trends.
Over the past few years, Microsoft has become a fast-growth company again, but it continues to return tens of billions of dollars to its investors.
During the pandemic, several Microsoft enterprise services, including Office 365 Commercial, Dynamics 365, and LinkedIn Marketing Solutions, were disrupted as businesses closed.
However, as businesses resumed operations, those factors eased. In the first quarter, Office 365 and Dynamics 365 provided an acceleration in growth on a constant currency basis, and LinkedIn Marketing continued to grow.
The growth of these "resurgent" segments, along with the continued growth of Azure and other cloud services, is offsetting the slowdown in Microsoft's Surface and Xbox units, which suffered from chip shortages and other supply chains constraints in the first quarter.
Finally, it's returning a lot of cash to shareholders.
In the fiscal year 2021, Microsoft spent more than $39 billion on dividends and stock buybacks, accounting for about 70% of free cash flow (FCF). The company will spend another $10.9 billion, or 58% of FCF, on both activities in the first quarter of 2022.
Microsoft's forward dividend yield of 0.8% won't drag serious investors, but the company has reduced its stock by nearly 10% over the past seven years, offsetting the dilution from stock-based compensation plans.
Still, there is one single reason to sell Microsoft: its valuation.
Today Microsoft is worth $2.4 trillion, about eight times its market value of $300 billion when Satya Nadella became its CEO.
The company's stock currently trades at 13 times this year's sales forecast and 35 times its earnings forecast. Those estimates are slightly overstated compared to analysts' expectations for sales growth of 14% and earnings growth of 9% this year.
Massive market capitalization and high valuations could make it tough for Microsoft to repeat its multiple growth over the past seven years.
Microsoft stock is priced very high, but bears have been sounding the alarm about th is for years while the company's stock has been soaring. Still, most would agree that Microsoft deserves such a high valuation because it is still a perfect long-term investment that will continue to profit from the expanding cloud services market.
Microsoft Soars on Cloud Momentum, Fueled by AIMicrosoft is experiencing a period of robust growth, driven by the accelerating adoption of its cloud computing services. The company's recent fiscal third-quarter results surpassed analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings, solidifying its position as a major player in the cloud wars. However, a slightly weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for the next quarter has injected a note of caution.
The cloud division, Azure, continues to be the crown jewel of Microsoft's growth strategy. Azure is experiencing significant momentum, capturing a growing share of the ever-expanding cloud market. This success can be attributed in part to Microsoft's strategic push towards artificial intelligence (AI).
The company is heavily investing in AI research and development, recognizing its transformative potential across various industries. Microsoft's Azure platform provides a comprehensive suite of AI tools and services, allowing businesses to leverage AI capabilities for tasks like data analysis, machine learning, and intelligent automation. This focus on AI is proving to be a significant differentiator for Microsoft, attracting customers seeking to integrate cutting-edge AI solutions into their operations.
One key indicator of Microsoft's commitment to AI is its increasing capital expenditures on securing Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs). GPUs are essential hardware components for training and running complex AI models, requiring immense processing power. By investing in this technology, Microsoft ensures it has the necessary infrastructure to support the ever-growing demand for AI services on its Azure platform.
While Microsoft's financial performance is impressive, a slight concern arises from the company's guidance for the next quarter. Revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter is projected to be around $64 billion, falling short of the $64.5 billion analysts anticipated. This could potentially indicate a temporary slowdown in the overall growth trajectory. However, it's important to consider the broader market climate and potential external factors impacting revenue generation, such as fluctuations in global economic conditions.
Despite this minor setback, Microsoft's long-term prospects remain positive. The company boasts a strong and diversified business model. Beyond the cloud, Microsoft continues to generate significant revenue from its traditional software products like the Office suite and Windows operating system. This diversification provides a safety net, mitigating risks associated with any potential fluctuations in a single market segment.
Furthermore, Microsoft's commitment to innovation extends beyond just the cloud and AI. The company actively explores other high-growth areas like cybersecurity, gaming (Xbox), and mixed reality (HoloLens). These ventures have the potential to unlock new revenue streams and solidify Microsoft's position as a technological leader across diverse sectors.
However, Microsoft faces challenges on its path to continued dominance. The cloud market is fiercely competitive, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) holding a significant market share. Microsoft must persistently innovate and improve its cloud services to maintain its competitive edge. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny regarding data privacy and antitrust concerns could pose obstacles for Microsoft's growth strategies.
In conclusion, Microsoft is in a strong position, propelled by its flourishing cloud business and strategic investments in AI. While a slightly weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for the next quarter introduces some caution, Microsoft's diversified business model and commitment to innovation position it well for long-term success. The company's ability to navigate the competitive landscape and address potential regulatory hurdles will be crucial in determining its continued dominance in the years to come.
Microsoft Stock Analysis. Biggest sell-off in history happeningMicrosoft Stock Analysis. The biggest sell-off in history has been happening since the end of 2021. Long-term shorts are playing out on Microsoft stock.
New supply levels are being created on the weekly timeframe; the last one is located at $256 per share. Microsoft's stock price today is still bearish. The stock might take some time to pull back to the supply imbalance shown in the Microsoft stock video analysis and prediction.
The expectations for the IT giant are very negative, regardless of any positive news, earnings, or new products and acquisitions. MSFT stock price could drop as far down as $65 in the following months. You can use bearish stock option strategies to take advantage of the sell-off in Microsoft stock.
Microsoft's Triumph Over Apple: The AI Revolution
Microsoft (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) has dethroned Apple to become the world's most valuable public company, marking a pivotal moment in the tech industry's landscape. This changing of the guard is not merely a financial fluctuation but a manifestation of the profound impact generative artificial intelligence (AI) is having on Silicon Valley and Wall Street investors.
The Rise of Microsoft:
For over a decade, Apple held sway as the undisputed king of the stock market, outshining giants like Exxon Mobil. However, a seismic shift occurred when Microsoft's market value surged by over $1 trillion in the past year, securing its place at the pinnacle with a valuation of $2.89 trillion, edging out Apple's $2.87 trillion.
Generative AI as the Catalyst:
This shift is not incidental but a consequence of the advent of generative AI, a technology capable of answering questions, creating images, and even writing code. Microsoft's strategic pivot under CEO Satya Nadella has been instrumental in leveraging generative AI to redefine its business landscape.
Microsoft's Evolution under Nadella:
When Satya Nadella took the helm in 2014, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) was at a crossroads. Nadella's visionary leadership refocused the company on cloud computing, challenging industry pioneer Amazon. His subsequent bold bet on generative AI, marked by investments in OpenAI and the development of GPT-4 technology, set Microsoft on an accelerated trajectory.
Integration of Generative AI:
Under Nadella's direction, Microsoft introduced generative AI into various facets of its business. From incorporating chatbots into Bing to infusing AI into the Windows operating system, Excel, and Outlook, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) strategically positioned itself at the forefront of the AI revolution. The recent release of a $30-a-month AI offering within Microsoft's productivity software further underscores its commitment to integrating AI into its products.
Financial Impact:
Although the revenue from generative AI is just beginning to materialize in Microsoft's financial results, it accounted for about three percentage points of growth to Azure in the last quarter. This trend positions Microsoft as a frontrunner in harnessing the economic potential of AI, contributing to the company's market value surge.
Apple's Struggles and Microsoft's Advantage:
While Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) has been proactive in embracing generative AI, Apple seems to be lagging behind in the AI race. Apple's reliance on iPhone sales and incremental innovations has faced challenges, with Tim Cook's strategy showing signs of fatigue. Microsoft's strategic foresight into AI technology places it in a favorable position to navigate the future of the tech industry.
Looking Ahead:
The recent shift in market dynamics prompts a crucial question: who has the better strategy to propel their market value to the next level of $3.5 trillion? Microsoft's relentless pursuit of generative AI positions it as a strong contender, while Apple grapples with finding the next big innovation beyond the iPhone.
Conclusion:
As Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) surpasses Apple in market value, it marks a symbolic victory for generative AI. The tech industry's reordering underscores the significance of embracing AI technology for sustained growth. Microsoft's ascent serves as a testament to the transformative power of strategic investments in generative AI, positioning the company at the forefront of the ever-evolving tech landscape.
MICROSOFT:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION & NEXT TARGET|LONGπMicrosoft released its fourth-quarter results on July 27. The company's revenue rose 21% year over year to $46.2 billion, beating forecasts by $1.9 billion, and earnings rose 49% to $2.17 per share, beating expectations by $0.25. Commercial cloud revenue - which comes primarily from Microsoft 365 (formerly Office 365), LinkedIn, Dynamics CRM, and the Azure cloud infrastructure platform - rose 36% from a year ago to $19.5 billion.
That represents an acceleration from the 33% growth in the commercial cloud segment in Q3, but Azure's 45% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency slowed down from the 46% growth in the third quarter. However, Azure revenue still grew 51% in the period, compared to 50% growth in the previous quarter, so it profited from favorable currency factors.
Azure's growth rate still looks strong, but Microsoft's unwillingness to disclose any further numbers on the cloud platform is discouraging. Let's look at three reasons why Microsoft should finally open the curtain.
First, it is one of Microsoft's most significant businesses.
Azure is the main growth engine of the commercial cloud division. It has consistently grown faster than Microsoft/Office 365 and Dynamics 365 and remains the second-largest cloud infrastructure platform in the world after Amazon Web Services (AWS).
According to Canalys, Azure controlled 22 percent of the global cloud infrastructure market in the second quarter of 2021. It is behind AWS at 31%, but well ahead of Alphabet's Google Cloud, which is in third place with an 8% share.
Disclosing the exact amount of Azure's revenues and profits would let investors know whether Microsoft has pricing power in this competitive market, or whether it is simply trading margins for market share.
Second, consider that Amazon and Google don't hide their cloud metrics.
In 2015, Amazon began reporting accurate data on AWS revenue and operating profits. Google followed suit, reporting accurate Google Cloud revenues in 2019 and then disclosing the division's operating losses in 2020.
Last year, Amazon's AWS revenue grew 30% to $45.4 billion, or 12% of total revenue. Segment operating income rose 47% to $13.5 billion and accounted for 59% of operating income. In other words, Amazon can support the development of its low-margin retail business at the expense of its higher-margin cloud business, giving it an advantage over other online and offline retailers.
Revenues at Alphabet's Google Cloud unit rose 46% to $13.1 billion in 2020, a 7% increase. The division's operating loss increased from $4.6 billion to $5.6 billion, but Alphabet's total operating income still rose 20% to $41.2 billion. These numbers suggest that Google Cloud is offering lower prices than AWS to expand its market share, but the company can afford to stick with this losing strategy since it can compensate its losses from cloud computing with higher advertising revenue.
As for Azure, investors still don't know how much the cloud platform boosts Microsoft's revenues and how much it reduces profit growth.
Finally, no more vague hints about Azure's margins.
Microsoft executives mention Azure dozens of times during every conference call, but only hint a few times at the platform's actual gross margin. During Microsoft's third-quarter conference call in April, CFO Amy Hood said Azure's gross margin is growing, but the "shift in sales mix toward Azure" is still reducing the overall gross margin of the commercial cloud segment.
In the fourth quarter, Microsoft said that commercial cloud gross margins "increased 4 points to 70% despite the shift in revenue mix toward Azure," and the 14% year-over-year increase in operating expenses was mostly "driven by investments in Azure" - but we don't know exactly how much was spent.
These indefinite comments tell us three things about Azure: it makes far less profit than Microsoft's other commercial cloud businesses, it offers customers lower rates to keep up with AWS and Google Cloud, and it is constantly expanding with new investments and services.
Giving accurate revenue and operating profit data would clarify things and show investors how much money Microsoft is losing (or perhaps making) on one of its fastest-growing businesses.
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer recommended the management to reveal cloud revenue, margins, and profits six years ago, but his successor, Satya Nadella, did not follow the advice. Nadella's position made sense then, as Microsoft was just beginning its transition, but today it doesn't make much sense-particularly after Amazon and Google have laid all their cards on the table.
MICROSOFT $MSFT - Mar. 11th, 2024MICROSOFT NASDAQ:MSFT - Mar. 11th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $405.00 - $415.00
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $400.00 - $405.00
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $394.10 - $400.00
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: DNT, Leaning Bearish
4H: DNT, Leaning Bearish
Wanted to draw up NASDAQ:MSFT after seeing the ranging zone on the daily timeframe, figured I might be able to pick a few entries no matter which trend price breaks into. The bullish zone is expanded farther than I typically would have it because of how price is moving in the range and because there have been already been multiple tests to each level. Previous zones are labeled for reference. I would heavily rely on the 1H/15min timeframes for entries, and the Daily/4H timeframes for structure and zones to determine which direction I'm trading in. The weekly timeframe is bullish and the daily obviously has the sideways range as previously stated, but I would lean bearish because of the level breaks and structural breakdowns. The 4H is where I'm mainly looking, there was a strong bearish drop last Tuesday, March 5th. Price dropped from the bullish zone, straight through the DNT zone and right into the bearish zone. Price then tested and rejected the structural zone above (405.00 - 405.50), dropped to the bottom of the bearish zone (target 400.00), then broke back into the DNT area before rejecting the top level (409.30 - 410.10) and dropping back into the previous bearish zone (405.00), which is the current DNT zone (405.00). Although there is a lot of level breaks up and down through each zone, I am leaning bearish on the smaller timeframes due to how price has dropped and then retested as opposed to the bullish counterpart.
Microsoft: Challenges and Opportunities for InvestorsMicrosoft's business appears to be slowing down, with the company's stock declining since the beginning of 2022 due to sales growth reaching its limit. Furthermore, large parts of the company's business, including the PC and video game segments, are shrinking, and the outlook for corporate technology spending in 2023 isn't looking good.
Despite these major problems, Microsoft has several aspects that are not as well known and point to solid returns for investors in the long run. For example, the company has a rich portfolio that covers attractive sectors such as cybersecurity, video games, and cloud services, offering more diversified participation in technology growth trends than many other peers.
Although some of these niches may go through periods of decline, Microsoft provides investors with exposure to attractive industries that offer solid returns in the long run. Additionally, Microsoft's stable cash flow is another strength that sets it apart from many of its peers. The company generated $20.4 billion in operating income in Q2 of fiscal 2023, just 8 percent less than the previous year, and its operating cash is still strong at $11.2 billion.
Despite the challenges facing most tech giants in 2023, Microsoft has several strengths that could help it weather the storm. For example, the company pays a dividend that was recently raised by 10 percent, has plenty of cash, and does not need to rely on costly debt to finance its business. Additionally, Microsoft's global sales presence should smooth out the volatility from the downturn in demand in some markets and niches.
In conclusion, although Microsoft's stock may not be recession-proof, the company's strengths provide it with the flexibility to continue investing in high-yield projects such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality, ensuring that long-term growth prospects are not jeopardized by a few weak quarters.
Microsoft Next High & Target is Channel Top $570, ( AB = CD )Microsoft is Trending within the Channel. Next High and Target is the "Channel Top" at $570. Additionally, the ( AB = CD ) concept indicates that the AB impulse is Equal to the CD impulse.
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MICROSOFT: No buying before the Resistance breaks.Microsoft made an important bullish breakout as it crossed over the LH trend-line of the Falling Wedge last week and turned bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.105, MACD = 2.380, ADX = 32.602). The last sell signal is near the dotted top of a potential Channel Down pattern. As long as it holds, we are taking the sell and target the 1D MA200 (TP = 313.00). On the contrary, if the price closes over the R1 level (341.00) we will go long and target the R2 level (TP = 366.50).
The fact that the 1D MA50 is holding is certainly a build up to a bullish trend potentially. As is the Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD, which by the way is on a Bullish Divergence (HL) against the LL of the stock price.
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MICROSOFT: Last chance to rebound. Selloff under this trendline.Microsoft is on a neutral technical setting on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 47.707, MACD = 0.040, ADX = 29.959) despite trading on the HL of the Rising Megaphone for the second time in 30 days. As long as this trendline holds, MSFT is a buy signal, targeting R1 (TP = 366.50). A cross under the Bullish Megaphone, will be a sell signal aiming at the 1D MA200 (TP = 300.00).
It is worth mentioning that the 1D MACD formed today a Bearish Cross, the first since July 21st. The pattern could be replicating the price action of September-November 2022.
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Microsoft's Deal With Mistral AI Faces Regulatory ScrutinyMicrosoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) recent collaboration with French startup Mistral AI has sparked outrage among European lawmakers, prompting calls for a thorough investigation into what is perceived as a consolidation of power by the Redmond-based company.
The European Union, already scrutinizing Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, raised additional alarms as news broke of the tech giant's 15-million euro investment in Paris-based Mistral AI. The investment, earmarked for integrating Mistral's AI models into Microsoft's Azure cloud computing platform, has set off a wave of apprehension regarding potential antitrust violations and monopolistic practices.
Despite assurances from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) that its investment does not confer ownership in Mistral, but rather equity in future funding rounds, skepticism persists among policymakers in Brussels. The deal has fueled concerns that Microsoft's growing influence in the European AI landscape could stifle competition and innovation, particularly among smaller startups.
The timing of the announcement, coinciding with ongoing discussions surrounding the EU's comprehensive AI Act, has further exacerbated tensions. Mistral's purported lobbying efforts for exemptions under the AI Act have drawn scrutiny, with some lawmakers questioning the authenticity of claims regarding the protection of European startups.
European Parliament members, including Brando Benefei and Kim van Sparrentak, have raised doubts about Mistral's motivations and its alignment with American-influenced tech lobbying efforts. Allegations of a concerted effort to circumvent regulations under the guise of supporting "European champions" have cast a shadow over the integrity of negotiations surrounding the AI Act.
Alexandra Geese echoed concerns over the concentration of power and resources, urging for a thorough investigation into Mistral's conduct and potential collusion with the French government. The call for scrutiny underscores broader apprehensions regarding the unprecedented convergence of money and influence in the tech industry.
As calls for investigation mount, Max von Thun of the Open Markets Institute emphasizes the urgency of assessing the partnership's implications. The perceived discrepancy between Mistral's advocacy as a "European champion" and its alignment with Microsoft's interests underscores the need for regulatory vigilance in safeguarding fair competition and innovation.
In response to inquiries, both Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Mistral AI have declined to comment, while the French government remains silent on the matter. With stakeholders clamoring for transparency and accountability, the EU faces mounting pressure to address concerns over tech giant influence and ensure a level playing field for all players in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.
Microsoft: $115 Price ShortMicrosoft is nearly as valuable as Apple market cap-wise. The price correlation between November 16th until now seen some outmost positive growth. Even with some slight negatives from today, you can expect a very soon price target of $115. Also expected is Microsoft to rally past its 52 week high as a company. While, Microsoft isn't on my portfolio, it still shows market growth potential just looking at the basic trends.
MICROSOFT $450 Target hit. Potential consolidation ahead.Microsoft (MSFT) easily hit our $450.00 medium-term Target that we called on our last signal (May 01, see chart below):
That call came on the most optimal buy entry, with the price right at the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. The symmetry between the pattern's Legs is very high and based on the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up), we should now get a medium-term consolidation to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resume the uptrend.
The Higher High was priced just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, our next Target is $480.
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MICROSOFT How to trade as the Earnings approach?Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report the Earnings on Tuesday and last time we gave gave a pull-back buy signal (December 01 2023, see chart below) we caught the exact bottom:
Our original long-term Target was $460.00 but we have to downgrade it to $440.00. On the short-term it may be wise to take most or at least some of the profit if the 1D MA20 (red trend-line) as this has been a medium-term sell signal on July 26 2023. It's not just potentially lower than expected Earnings that may turn the trend bearish on the medium-term but also the Fed, which announce the Rate Decision on Wednesday.
As a result, if the price breaks below the 1D MA20, we will short and target the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at $370.00 where we will add another long-term buy position. Notice that the 1D CCI indicator and the correlation with the 2023 price action, shows that both scenarios are equally likely at the moment.
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