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NikeNIKE, INC. IS A
GROWTH COMPANY.
We create innovative, must-have products. We build deep, personal connections with consumers. And we deliver an integrated marketplace with compelling retail experiences.
“NIKE continues to deeply connect with consumers all over the world driven by our strong competitive advantages,” said John Donahoe, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc. “Our strategy is working, as we accelerate innovation and create the seamless, premium marketplace of the future. I’ve never been more confident in our leadership and teams to operate with agility in a dynamic environment.”**
Our third quarter revenue performance was impacted by disruption related to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in North America and EMEA. North America revenues declined 11 percent on a currency-neutral basis, largely driven by global container shortages and U.S. port congestion, which delayed the flow of inventory in the third quarter by more than three weeks, impacting timing of wholesale shipments, and partially offset by NIKE Direct growth of 15 percent. EMEA physical retail sales declined, as 45 percent of NIKE-owned stores experienced mandatory COVID-19 related closures for the last two months of the quarter, however this was partially offset by digital sales, which increased 60 percent. Today, approximately 65 percent of stores in EMEA are open or operating on reduced hours. Greater China revenues increased 42 percent on a currency-neutral basis, which reflects strong double-digit growth versus the third quarter of fiscal year 2019 as we annualize the impact of COVID-19, as well as continued strong digital sales growth of 44 percent versus prior year.
“NIKE's brand momentum is as strong as ever and we are driving focused growth against our largest opportunities,” said Matt Friend, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, NIKE, Inc. “We continue to see the value of a more direct, digitally-enabled strategy, fueling even greater potential for NIKE over the long term.”**
-Source: nike website
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Not Financial Advice. Not a Licensed Broker.
NIKE: One of the largest brands on this planet! BUY NOWNIKE: One of the largest brands on this planet! BUY NOW! 50% Upside Ahead
If you believe Nike is a dying company or will lose to HOKA, ON, and whoever else as the years roll on you clearly haven't studied Nike hard enough and seen the continued destruction of EVERY SINGLE brand to try and fight them...Adidas, Under Armor, Puma, New Balance, Asics, Brooks, etc. etc. etc. The LIST WILL INDEED continue.
This name is not a H5 Setup...YET. But, I'm adding it to my watchlist as we have a beautiful Inverse H&S, Sitting on a Volume Shelf, Wr% divergence, and a Hammer Candle which typically means a reversal of a downtrend. All on the weekly chart!
I believe that Value and Dividend names will be the hot ticket stocks in 2025 due to how beaten down they all are and so much treasury and high-interest savings money flowing into the markets, choosing this category of stocks to be on the safer side as that is the type.
Once we get the BULLISH Green BUY signal on the H5 Indicator, it's all over, and you will not see Nike at these levels, most likely EVER AGAIN! You all realize Nike has a large MOAT and is one of the most prolific brands on the planet, right?! Ok, good, I thought you forgot!
Will update once we get the flip to a BUY! Will begin adding in my LT portfolio now due to the value on this company at these levels right now though.
NFA
NIKE | JUST BUY ITNike topped Wall Street estimates for first quarter profit on Thursday as higher prices of its sneakers and apparel helped offset a hit from waning demand and persistent cost pressures, sending its shares up about 8% in extended trading.
Nike (NKE) is the largest apparel company in the world, with leading positions across different categories and regions. The company is currently facing challenges such as elevated inventory levels, inflationary pressure, and slow growth in China. Such issues have resulted in the stock dropping by 19% YTD. Although these headwinds are serious, I believe the company's durable brand, leading position, and high-quality products should allow it to come out stronger on the other end.
'Nike is a brand that is of China and for China' -John Donahoe
Like every other apparel and retail company, Nike thought post-pandemic demand would continue, so it increased production, which led to inventory levels hitting an all-time high in Q1-FY22, but as we know, that wasn't the case. Although NKE's inventory level is down from all-time highs, investors are still concerned, especially when inflation is eating into people's pockets and growth in China is slowing.
Inflation in North America has come down to 3.7% from its peak in June at 9.1%, but it is still a concern in Europe (6.1% in the EU union). As you can see from the graph below, sales in China have been decreasing for the past two years. There are multiple ways one can explain this: COVID related lockdowns resulted in the shuttering of some stores. Plus, Nike and other apparel companies started facing a backlash in China in 2021 due to the alleged use of forced labor in cotton production. However, if the company is successful at expanding into China, then we can expect a lot of room for growth.
Now that I have addressed the problems that are facing Nike, let me explain why I believe the company will overcome them. Nike sponsors the most well-known athletes such as Cristiano Ronaldo (+600 million Instagram followers), LeBron James, Michael Jordan, the late Kobe Bryant, Rafael Nadal, Tiger Woods, and more. This has helped the company build a loyal customer base and further boost its brand equity. With a loyal customer base comes pricing power, and as Warrant Buffet said:
Nike's pricing power is no joke. Its shoes have reached a level where they are considered luxury, with some selling for more than the $10,000 mark. In 2017, Nike's median price for a shoe regardless of gender was $80, which is $10 more than its biggest competitor, Adidas. I know 2017 was a long time ago, but shoe prices have increased since then, and I believe Nike is still in the lead given their dominant market position. Plus, Nike targets mostly the age demographic of 25 and 34. These are people who have not settled in yet. They just graduated college with extra income to spend on things such as expensive shoes. I believe this pricing power will continue as the company continues to sponsor talented upcoming athletes to build trust with customers.
Another way to measure Nike's brand power is by comparing its marketing spending against its peers. Nike's marketing budget in FY 23 was $4 billion, or 7.9% of revenue. On the other hand, Adidas spent 38% and Under Armour 11%. These companies have been allocating more of their revenue towards marketing but have experienced nowhere near the growth Nike has. NKE's association with well-known athletes in the U.S. has allowed them to have a 96% awareness rate, 53% usage rate, and 43% loyalty rate. Going forward, I expect the company's brand will remain high-quality due to sponsorships, high-quality products, and market-leading technology.
Founded by Bill Bowerman and Phil Knight in 1994, Nike has come a long way from its first store in Portland, Oregon. As of May 31, 2023, the company had 369 stores within the U.S. and 663 internationally, operating in more than 190 countries. Stores include franchised stores and third-party retailers. The firm owns multiple brands such as Jordan, Converse, and Nike. The company derives sales from four main segments and across four regions. I excluded Converse (4.74% of revenue) from the graphs below because I wanted to focus on the Nike brand. The company's app, NikePlus, has more than 160 million users.
On a trailing free cash flow basis, the stock yields over 3.3% relative to its enterprise value. My ~$104 May 24 PT implies a 28.00x P/E and 20.00x EV/EBITDA. Both multiples are below the ten-year NTM average and in line with the median. I project revenue to compound at a rate of 6.47% over the next three years, driven by market growth and new products, while shares decrease at a rate of 2.67%, driven by stock buybacks. The company is forecast to spend $12.1 billion on share repurchases over the same period.
Additionally, I believe the company still has room for margin improvement driven by price increases and DTC mix (direct-to-consumer). In FY 2019, DTC sales constituted 31% of revenue, and that figure stood at 44% in FY 2023. Although NKE is trading at a premium compared to peers, I believe it is reasonable considering its scale, high-quality products, and strong brand.
The first risk that I would associate with NKE is competition. The company competes with conglomerates such as Addidas, Puma, New Balance, Under Armour, and more. Additionally, e-commerce has made it very easy for anyone to start their own footwear brand. Other key risks to my rating include supply chain distributions, a recessionary environment, and slow growth in China.
Finally, we can point out that NKE appears technically oversold heading into the Q1 earnings report. From the chart , there has been relentless selling pressure over the last four months since NKE was trading at $130 per share.
The potential that NKE delivers a "good" earnings report with encouraging guidance, brushing aside fears the company is facing a deeper deterioration in its operating environment could be enough for shares to reprice higher. Simply put, our take is that NKE bears have gone too far, opening the door for bulls to take control.
The bottom line is that Nike is currently experiencing headwinds such as elevated inventory levels, inflationary pressure, and slow growth in China. Every business goes through similar challenges at one time or another, but I believe Nike is well-positioned to overcome these issues due to its durable brand, high-quality products, and leading position. I expect the company to keep endorsing high-quality athletes to elevate its brand equity and further strengthen its pricing power. My valuation implies a price target of ~$104 for May 31, 2024.
If you into NIKE brand you can watch Air film and read Shoe Dog book as well
Nike is about to test strong supportNike is about to test strong support
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Nike's stock over the past four years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, Nike's stock has hit its lowest point in recent years, hitting the 2.618 level of the bottom up golden section in the figure. The low point in October last year hit the 0.500 level of the bottom up golden section in the figure, and the high point in January this year hit the 1.618 level of the bottom up golden section in the figure! So, in the future, the bottom of the graph should be used as the dividing line for judging the strength of Nike's stock, which is 0.618 on the golden section!
Nike extends gains Nike's stock (NKE) kept rising in the intraday levels, buoyed by positive pressure from the 50-day SMA, and amid the dominance of the upward correctional wave in the short term, with negative signals from the RSI after reaching overbought levels, hurting the stock's movements.
Therefore we expect the stock to rise and target the resistance of 138.65, provided it settles above 118.47.
NIKE INC. AMERICAN SHOOES LOOSING GLOSS, AHEAD OF U.S. RECESSIONNIKE Inc. or Nike is an American multinational company specializing in sportswear and footwear.
The company designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment and services.
The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip H. Knight more than 40 years ago, on January 25, 1964, and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
As of July 15, 2024, NIKE (NKE) shares were down more than 33 percent in 2024, making them a Top 5 Underperformer among all the S&P500 components.
Perhaps everything would have been "normal", and everything could be explained by the one only unsuccessful December quarter of 2023, when the Company’s revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to $12.6 billion, which turned out to be lower than analyst estimates.
But one circumstance makes everything like a "not just cuz".
This is all because among the Top Five S&P500 Outsiders, in addition to NIKE, we have also shares of another large shoe manufacturer - lululemon athletica (LULU), that losing over 44 percent in 2024.
Influence of macroeconomic factors
👉 The economic downturn hurts most merchandise retailers, but footwear companies face the greatest risk to loose profits, as higher fixed costs lead to larger profit declines when sales come under pressure.
👉 The Nasdaq US Benchmark Footwear Index has fallen more than 23 percent since the start of 2024 as consumer spending is threatened by continued rising home prices, banks' reluctance to lend, high lending rates, and high energy and energy costs. food products - weaken.
👉 In general, the above-mentioned Footwear Sub-Industry Index continues to decline for the 3rd year in a row, being at levels half as low as the maximum values of the fourth quarter of 2021.
Investment Domes worsen forecasts...
👉 In the first quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs made adjustments to its forecast for Nike shares, lowering the target price to $120 from the previous $135, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The company analyst cited ongoing challenges in Nike's near-term growth trajectory as the main reason for the adjustment, anticipating potential underperformance compared to market peers, noting that Nike's 2025 growth expectations have become "more conservative."
👉 Last Friday, Jefferies Financial Group cut its price target from $90.00 to $80.00, according to a report.
👉 Several other equity analysts also weighed in on NKE earlier in Q2 2024. In a research note on Friday, June 28, Barclays downgraded NIKE from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating and lowered their price target for the company from $109.00 to $80.00.
👉 BMO Capital Markets lowered their price target on NIKE from $118.00 to $100.00 and set an overweight rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an equal-weight rating and set a $79.00 price target (up from $114.00) on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a $120.00 price target on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Finally, StockNews.com downgraded NIKE from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, June 21st.
...and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy
Perhaps everything would have been fine, and all the deterioration in forecasts could have been attributed to the stretching spring of price decline, if not for one circumstance - it is not the ratings that are declining due to the decline in share prices, but the shares themselves are being pushed lower and lower, as one after another depressing ones are released analytical forecasts from investment houses.
16 years ago. How it was
On January 15, 2008, shares of many shoe companies, including Nike Inc. (NKE) and Foot Locker Inc. (FL) fell after investment giant Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its stock price targets, warning that the U.S. recession would drag down the companies' sales in 2008 as consumers spend more cautiously. "The recession will further increase the impact of the key headwind of a limited number of key commodity trends needed to fuel consumer interest in the sector," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.
In early 2008, Goldman downgraded athletic shoe retailer Foot Locker to "sell" from "neutral" and cut its six-month share price target from $17 to $10, saying it expected U.S. sales margins to continue to decline in 2008 despite store closures.
The downgrade was a major blow to Foot Locker, which by early 2008 had already seen its shares fall 60 percent over the previous 12 months as it struggled with declining sales due to declining demand for athletic shoes at the mall and a lack of exciting fashion trends in the market. sports shoes.
Like now, at those times Goldman retained its recommendation rating to “buy” Nike Inc shares, based on general ideas about the Company’s increasing weight over the US market, topped off with theses about the Company’s international visibility, as well as robust demand ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
However Goldman lowered its target price for the shares from $73 to $67 ( from $18.25 to $16.75, meaning two 2:1 splits in Nike stock in December 2012 and December 2015).
Although Nike, at the time of the downturn in forecasts, in fact remained largely unscathed by the decline in demand for athletic footwear among US mall retailers, it reported strong second-quarter results in December 2007 (and even beating forecasts for strong demand for its footwear in the US and growth abroad) , Goldman Sachs' forecasts for Nike's revenue and earnings per share to decline were justified.
Later Nike' shares lost about 45 percent from their 2008 peaks, and 12 months later reached a low in the first quarter of 2009 near the $40 mark ($10 per share, taking into account two stock splits).
The decline in Foot Locker shares from the 2008 peaks 2009 lows was even about 80 percent, against the backdrop of the global recession and the banking crisis of 2007-09.
Will history repeat itself this time..!? Who knows..
However, the main technical graph says, everything is moving (yet) in this direction.
NIKE: On a key long term pivot and almost oversold.Nike is almost oversold on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.787, MACD = -2.530, ADX = 53.733) and is trading sideways inside the P1 Zone, which is the Pivot Band that has started several rebounds inside this 1 year Triangle pattern. This isn't an automatic buy for us yet, we need to see the price crossing over the 1D MA50 before buying and aim at the LH trendline (TP = 119.00). If P1 breaks downwards, we will on the HL trendline and aim again at the LH trendline (TP = 119.00).
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NIKE: Repeating the 2022 decline unless it crosses the 1W MA100.Nike isn't on its best long term technical outlook being neutral on 1D but bearish on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 36.926, MACD = -4.740, ADX = 46.648). The four month pattern is a Channel Down, which if broken upwards should target the 1W MA50 (TP = 111.50). That's on the medium term because on the long term, the market needs to cross over the 1W MA100 (which has been closing weekly candles under it since February 22nd 2022), if it wants to restore investor confidence. If not, we risk a repeat of the August-September 2022 selloff.
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Nike Set To Lay off 740 Employees at Oregon HeadquartersNike, the world's leading sportswear manufacturer, has announced its plans to lay off around 740 employees at its global headquarters in Oregon. This move aligns with the company's cost-cutting strategy, which was disclosed in December 2023, with the aim of saving $2 billion over the next three years. The second phase of layoffs is expected to commence by the end of June 2025, as the company looks to scale back on specific franchises amidst an uncertain demand scenario.
In compliance with the legal obligation, Michele Adams, Nike's Vice President for People Solutions, has notified the state authorities that the second phase of layoffs would begin at the company's headquarters. Earlier in February, Nike had indicated that it would cut around 2% of its total workforce, which equates to over 1,600 roles. As of May 31, 2023, the company had around 83,700 employees.
Despite the announcement, Nike's shares rose marginally in after-hours trading, although they have declined by nearly 13% this year. Several companies in the U.S. and Canada have announced new rounds of layoffs to curb costs in the face of an uncertain demand environment.
In March, Nike warned that its revenues in the first half of fiscal 2025 would shrink by a low-single-digit percentage. The company's decision to downsize its workforce is part of its strategy to rein in costs, as it navigates through a challenging business environment.
Nike is about to accelerate its rise !Nike is about to accelerate its rise !
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Nike stock for the past 4 years. The graph overlays the 2020 bottom to top golden section. As shown in the figure, Nike's stock took shape from the bottom of 2020, and after peaking at the end of 2021, it fell significantly! The two recent lows happen to be the 0.500 and 1.0000 positions on the bottom of the Golden Divide. In the future, Nike's stock is likely to continue to strengthen!
NIKE MOONIG ?Nike's gone pretty low since its all time high at 178.
I think that Nike is going to moon like it did after bouncing off the support line to go from 144 to 178 last time.
The RSI indicator also shows that the strength is really low, so its the perfect moment to buy.
"THIS IS NOT INVESTING ADVICE"
Nike to turnaround?Nike - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 109.31 (stop at 105.31)
The primary trend remains bullish.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
The stock is expected to outperform in its sector.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Prices have reacted from 102.90.
The bias is to break to the upside.
Our profit targets will be 119.31 and 121.31
Resistance: 109.10 / 113.00 / 116.00
Support: 105.00 / 102.90 / 100.00
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NIKE is making a bullish break-out targeting $155.00Nike (NKE) broke above its Falling Wedge, which based on the huge rally since October, is the technical bull flag pattern for a bullish continuation. The very same break-out was seen on July 29 2020. Both sequences formed Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns and 1D Golden Crosses. Even the RSI formations are identical. The 2020 one targeted the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is not at $155.00 and that is our long-term target.
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NIKE Inverse Head & Shoulders start the recoveryNike Inc. (NKE) broke above the 118.70 Resistance of the Shoulder level of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that started in August. Having rebounded last week on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and already now above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), this IH&S bears resemblances with the one in early 2020 which kick started the post COVID crash recovery.
As you see even the 1D RSI sequences between the two are similar. It would appear that right now we are in the process of turning the 1D MA200 in a Support as in mid-June 2020. Two weeks after the price convincingly broke above the Right Shoulder and the rally stopped just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
If the current pattern repeats the 2020 one, then the 2.0 Fib extension will get the price to 155.00. That is just below the 0.786 Fib retracement from the All Time High. Right now the price is on the 0.382 Fib.
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Nike: 3 Black Crows with Hidden Bearish Divergence Earnings PlayNike is yet to release their earnings but they will be releasing them tomorrow and i'm anticipating that whatever they are will result in a downwards move towards the $65 area; I will be playing this move via Buying of the January and February $80 Puts and Selling the $100 January 20th calls.
NIKE INC. Long positionNike seems to be in a long-term correction where it has completed wave A and now looking into forming wave B. Within wave B, wave A and B seem to be completed in a nice text-book style flat correction. Wave 1 of C seems complete. I will look at the behavior and reaction to the upside in the coming week to confirm my bias.