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#NKE Oversold - price at Covid LevelsAnalysis Overview Focus: Primarily on fundamental analysis. Current Price Context: Last time NYSE:NKE was at these price levels was in March 2020. The stock has been significantly beaten down. This year's growth estimate is gloomy (-14%). Investment Rationale Despite the recent challenges, Nike remains a solid company and is the world's most valuable apparel brand. P/E (TTM) is 19.74 which hints a kind of fair valuation. Moreover, analysts estimate an upside potential of +26.16% on average. Investment Decision I decided to buy 10 shares of $NKE. Exit Strategy I haven’t determined a specific sell price yet and might keep the shares indefinitely. My decision will be based on: General market sentiment Potential price increases in the near term Long-Term Outlook I believe Nike will perform well in the long term, but I’m also open to acting opportunistically and selling if there is a significant price increase in the near term.
NYSE:NKELong
by zip3gr
6/24/24 - $nke - Setup long into print but I'm on bench6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NKE Setup long into print but I'm on bench Quick comment on this softline bellwether. - Look at "NKE/SPY" on trading view e.g. look at Nike as compared to the S&P "comp". Puts you back at 2013 levels. In other words it's been a pretty bad "money" - recent result was weak/ consumer still yet to be cracking, and they'll really have to blow out of the water AND talk about how they're taking share - on this taking share point - have you noticed all these co's beating NYSE:ONON , NYSE:DECK , NASDAQ:CROX etc. that aren't obviously true comps, but nonetheless - taking the core business and growing in other areas Nike can't directly address. I'm not an expert here, but from my arm chair this matters - valuation is 27x PE... not "cheap". 3.5% yield and growing MSD at best is better cash - but again so are most A-tier brands. So in sum i'd expect a beat but it's hard to see institutions backing up the truck and adding. Look what happened to NASDAQ:LULU , gave a lot of it back, didn't stick. Smaller co. Probably a better MT-LT grower (vs. NYSE:NKE ). Cheaper PE too. It's tough for me to like this one into the results even if the chart looks like a good setup as this a. tape is rich/ toppy (for now - more on this later) and b. the stock has not been a good store of value so there needs to be an inflection in sentiment and facing this current consumer + being industry leader (so harder to "buck" the trend)... no me gusta mucho. I'm on the bench, warming up for a better pitch. Gl to longs. lmk if i've overlooked anything V
NYSE:NKE
by VROCKSTAR
2
First time since 1980'sFor the first time since the 1980's Nike's 100 day moving average has crossed below the 200 day moving average. to add to this, Nike has been struggling to get back to its ATH. if you notice the down trending pattern, investor interest is lack luster at best. Furthermore, if yo look back at the data, from 1982 to 1984 the pattern seems similar to right before the stock split. may not have any relevance but I have known history to repeat itself. I will post in the comments what I am looking at. overall this does seem to be a good shorting area with targets closer to the mid to low $70. A stretch? We shall see cdn.discordapp.com
NYSE:NKEShort
by Bmmcoo009
2
The TradingView Digest - March 25thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top ideas from our community, which includes a video tutorial on customizing TradingView charts, an informative post about Reddit, a hot script on price gaps, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events. We hope you find this week's edition exciting and engaging. Let's dive in! 😀 💡🎥 TradingView Masterclass: Create your perfect chart - by TradingView Dive into this video for a hands-on masterclass on TradingView's chart settings, created just for you! From the general themes to the smallest details, you'll learn how to fully customize your charts to match your unique trading style and preferences. Discover how to access and adjust every aspect of your charts, making sure they look, present data, and integrate trading features exactly how you want. 💡 Reddit Braves Wall Street with 48% Pop in Debut. When Growth? - by TradingView Reddit stepped into the public-market space this week with a flashy and splashy IPO in New York that chalked up a 48% gain on its debut day. The listing was met with lots of cheer from Wall Street as it was the biggest one for a social media company since Pinterest hit exchanges in 2019. 🔝 Top Stories 📰 Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady but Projects Three Cuts This Year 📰 Sterling Tumbles 2% to $1.2580 After Bank of England Keeps Rates Steady 📰 Apple Stock Wipes Out Over $100 Billion in Value After US Files iPhone Monopoly Lawsuit 📰 Reddit Stock Pops 38% Out of the Gate to Trade at $47 a Share at $9 Billion Valuation 📰 Bitcoin Powers Up by 12% to $68K After Jay Powell Upholds Rate-Cut Timeline 💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week: 💲 PDD Holdings soars on Q4 results beat 💲 Micron Posts Surprise 2Q Profit as Recovery Continues 💲 Accenture Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss 💲 NIKE Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y 💲 FedEx Posts Strong Quarterly Results 💡 Options Blueprint Series: Strangles vs. Straddles - by traddictiv Among the plethora of strategies, the Strangle holds a unique position, offering flexibility in unclear market conditions without the upfront costs associated with more conventional approaches like the Straddle. This article delves into the intricacies of the Strangle strategy, emphasizing its application in trading Gold Futures. 💡🎥 How to Set a Trailing Stop Loss on TradingView - by zAngus This one is a bit of a hack but follows on from my video on how to set 'Stop Losses' on TradingView for Connected Brokers. To set a trailing stop loss, you need to open your broker account, place the trade there, and it will then be reflected on the TradingView interface. 📆 Economic Calendar ⚡️ March 26th (United States) — Durable Goods Orders MoM ⚡️ March 28th (United Kingdom) — GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q4) ⚡️ March 28th (United States) — GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) ⚡️ March 29th (United States) — Core PCE Price Index YoY ⚡️ March 29th (United States) — Fed Chair Powell Speech ⚡️ March 31st (China) — NBS Manufacturing PMI 🔥 What's New Just a few minor tweaks last week, but fear not ... We continue working hard 👷🏽 to make the platform even better. 🌟 Script of the Week 📜 Gaps Profile - by vnhilton The script displays remaining unclosed gaps on the chart, helping you recognize shifts in market sentiment and pinpoint potential supply/demand zones. 💭 Our Weekly Thought: “ Sometimes the best trades are the ones you did not take. ” We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, remarks, or suggestions with us in the comments below. 💖, TradingView Team 📣 Want to be among the first to know all the news? Give us a follow!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradingView
2
Web3Coin World reported that Nike’s Web3 wearable device platform .Swoosh announced on social media that the Reveal schedule will be released at 12 noon Pacific Standard Time on Thursday, June 15, and more information will be released next week. Previously, Swoosh had said that due to falling behind schedule, the Reveal timetable, which was originally scheduled to be launched today, would be postponed. The main content may involve the processing plan of the uncast Nike's first digital sports shoe series "Our Force 1" Box.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by suxi518
1
Projecting Bitcoin to $6,400,000 million (10.496 trillion VOL) Working on creating an accurate model to project Bitcoins future movement, this would not include a market-cap its irrelevant, almost like me giving you a map to the treasure with an X without the path? what would be the point. To make this simply take the daily FX volume averages from reports saying this can hit $6 trillion per day of transactional volume Bitcoin as of the last weeks does somewhere around $41 billion of volume in USD per day yes that is 146.34 x smaller than just the FX currency market, not including bonds, equities, other assets. Take the network price of 1 Bitcoin giving us $11,679 at around just under half the 41 billion you start to see the volume of money on the network is what drives the Bitcoin price. Next we take the model and expand you start to see even at 5.2 trillion of volume we would hit a Bitcoin pricing the network at 3.2 million, and this would be assuming that the same circulating supply is the same for the next 10 years. The supply will likely reduce and be held offline reducing the daily traded BTC volume on average in the last years adding a multiplier to the Bitcoin valuation, something impossible to try to predict a nation state could turn around today and purchase 500,000 and keep them offline at a moments notice. Instead of looking at the value of 1 Bitcoin $25,000 is expensive because you're looking at $25,000 nobody who owns gold jewellery knows the price of a 1kg gold bar or cares about the value. A Bitcoin price of 6.4 million seems too expensive ? when in reality if Bitcoin captures international trade in multiple assets its not even the start of where it could go. 458,495.00 USD is the price of a single Berkshire Hathaway share, yet a share of Nike is 121.10 USD many people can own a share of Nike not many can own a share of Berkshire. Reference 1 share of Berkshire in 1984 was $1,280 - $1,280 in 1984 is worth $3,685.64 today.
Long
by FederalXBT
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * US New Residential Construction saw Building Permits for November down 11.2% from October to 1,342,000 and November Housing Starts down 0.5% from October to 1,427,000 . These numbers are reflective of an economy preparing for weakening demand as we head into 2023. US November Consumer Confidence spiked from 101.4 in November to 108.3 in December following two consecutive months of decline . This number is likely reflective of a lower CPI in November paired with expectations of continued lower inflation in 2023. Nike beat on both top and bottom 2023 Q2 estimates with its second best quarter of revenue growth in the past 10+ years , this is likely due to Black Friday sales and holiday shopping but is also reflective of a still strong US consumer. It was confirmed today by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the first transfer of the Patriot Air Defense System will be included in the most recent $1.85b aid package that the US will provide to Ukraine . Ukraine President Zelenskyy has also landed in the USA to meet with President Biden and deliver a speech to a joint session in Congress later tonight. Russia has previously declared that any Patriot Missiles supplied to Ukraine would immediately become legitimate targets of their armed forces attack . US Equities, US Equity Futures, Energy, Agriculture, DXY, HSI and N100 are up. Cryptos are mixed. Metals, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, NI225, VIX and US Treasurys are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently testing the 50MA at $3875 as resistance. Volume is currently Low (high) and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4045, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46.5 as resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session after retesting max bottom and is currently trending up at 11, the next resistance is at 17. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing -11.45 support. ADX is currently trending down at 13.6 as Price is attempting to defend support at the 50MA, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is to reclaim support of the 50MA it will have to close above $3875 as well as recapture support at $3913 minor support . However, if Price is rejected here at the 50MA, it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3710 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3810.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
NKE | GuidanceJournal Entry Bias: Negative. Sentiment: Pessimistic. Emoji (emotion): Bored 😑. Null Hypothesis: Sell. Alternative Hypothesis: Buy. Signals: ... Position: Short term day trade. Notes: ... Barron's Company Overview: www.barrons.com . Other: ... Tutorial: (Q/A) What exactly is the box labeled tolerance? The box labeled tolerance is a defined range of value & time that qualifies the right to exit the trade after a profit is made; as long as the security is inside the box and above the trade's entry one could say the profit is within tolerance, likewise if the security is outside the box either because of value or time one could say the profit is not within tolerance. It's a way to add parameters to the future outcome (as a means to grade the journal entry) while simultaneously providing leniency in the ability to achieve success with said journal entry. Social: I'm happy to hear from my readers/audience and I encourage constructive feedback; although I'm busy I will give my best effort to reply. About the Author: I'm not a Wall Street retailer or promoter I don't have products/services for sale and my intentions aren't geared towards pumping securities, although I am a financial scientist and one of my sources of income is trading; that is to say anything offered to the community is apart of my scientific journal or goodwill to mankind (you're very welcome). I also strive to become one of Tradingview's pinescript Wizards and Top Authors, as well as build a reputable reputation & following. About the Security: "NIKE, Inc. engages in the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment, and services. It operates through the following segments: North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, Asia Pacific & Latin America, Global Brand Divisions, Converse, and Corporate. The North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific & Latin America segments refer to the design, development, marketing, and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment. The Global Brand Divisions represent its NIKE Brand licensing businesses. The Converse segment designs, markets, licenses, and sells casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories. The Corporate segment consists of unallocated general and administrative expenses. The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip H. Knight on January 25, 1964, and is headquartered in Beaverton, OR." Disclaimer: My journal entry is not a complete prospectus, please consider it accordingly.
NYSE:NKEShort
by UnknownUnicorn28743597
Your chance to unload in case you were in it..Whats the "headlines". Amazon is buying PTON.. Nike is PTON. How about Burger King or CVS? Maybe Lowes will buy PTON. I think you catch my drift. I would not want to be holding Peloton. I would not short it.. well, I would but I am not. Out of 8000 tickers, there are better things to be in. Someone is unloading their PTON and as always, gets some headlines put out to get all the kids excited that have no idea what they are doing and they think PTON is going to 4000 one day. Nike is buying them! Amazon is buying them! Dump this garbage. Buy in a few months if you want, there will be decent percentages to be made, even with just a lower high.
NASDAQ:PTON
by Original_Stock_Whisperer
16
$BTC bitcoin isn't going anywhere*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Recap: My team is still holding the Bitcoin $BTC entry we made on 1/22/2022 at 35k. This is how the monthly chart looks to us currently. It's important to remember that at the end of the day charts are just for reference purposes. Sometimes they are 100% correct, and other times they couldn't be further from the truth. This chart depicts a tale of consolidation within the 32-42k range until March when $BTC decides to take its decided leap upward (or possibly downward). Crypto is however making new headlines and breakthroughs every day. NBA basketball superstar Lebron James recently announced a pact with Crypto.com for a Web3 project. Even in the NFL athletes like Aaron Rodgers, and Odell Beckam are being paid in Bitcoin. These things may not seem that important, but in reality, they actually are. Michael Jordan, known worldwide as the best basketball player ever signed a legacy deal with Nike in 1984. Nike has become widely popular ever since and continues to grow even now in 2022. If Bitcoin started in 2009, just imagine what it's going to look like 25 years from now. Many people feel as though they've already missed out on any potential Bitcoin run for the foreseeable future, but this couldn't be further from the truth. What Bitcoin will do within the next few weeks is uncertain, but my team is absolutely certain of one thing, and it's that Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Daily Market Update for 11/9Summary: Producer Price Index data confirmed fears of continued high inflation for the month of October. We already expected indexes to pull back after a long streak of daily gains, but the inflation worries helped solidify the trend reversal. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 9, 2021 Facts: -0.60%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 25%, Body: 69% Red Good: Lower volume on pullback Bad: Lower high, lower low, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Bearish engulfing body marks trend reversal Advance/Decline: 0.47, more than two declining for every Indexes: SPX (-0.35%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (-0.63%), VIX (+3.25%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Materials (XLB +0.46%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Producer Price Index data confirmed fears of continued high inflation for the month of October. We already expected indexes to pull back after a long streak of daily gains, but the inflation worries helped solidify the trend reversal. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.60% decline for the day. The red body engulfs the bodies of the previous two thin bodies in indecisive candles. The bearish engulfing body confirms the reversal in an uptrend. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The good news is that volume was lower than the previous day, signaling less conviction by sellers. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.31%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.63%. The VIX Volatility Index continues to rise, advancing +3.25% today. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Materials (XLB +0.46%) were the top sectors for the day as a mix of defensive and cyclical sectors moved higher. Financials (XLF -0.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.85%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The Core Producer Price Index (PPI), which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.4% month-over-month for October. That was higher than the 0.2% growth for September but lower than the forecast by analysts of 0.5%. The total PPI was 0.6% month-over-month, which matched the forecast. A 10-year treasury note auction showed lower demand than usual as investors worried about longer-term inflation. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was at -2.9 million barrels vs. the forecast of +1.9 m barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.08% for the day. The US 30y Treasury Yield dropped for another day, approaching its year-to-date lows. The US 10y and 2y yields also declined for the day. High inflation data would typically push yields higher, but the fact that yields dropped is something to note and could signal bond investors confidence in the Fed controlling inflation in the longer term. It could also just be some hope that the Consumer Price Index data will positively surprise investors tomorrow. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day. Gold, a common hedge against inflation, is at its highest point since the middle of June. Crude Oil Futures moved higher based on higher demand. Aluminum Futures continue to fall. The metal is critical to many parts of the supply chain, and so it is significant to see prices fall so far from record highs in October. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.551. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed range. Amazon (AMZN) continues to rally back to health with a +2.50% gain today. The stock has climbed 8% in the last five days since closing below its 200d moving average. The chart has nearly filled the gap created on July 30. Apple (AAPL) also advanced today, climbing by +0.25%. The other two of the four largest mega-caps declined, with Microsoft (MSFT) losing -0.21% and Alphabet (GOOGL) falling -0.08%. Amazon topped the mega-cap list, followed by Nike (NKE). Nike gained +1.15%. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list, falling -11.99% today as investors continue to react to Elon Musk's tweet over the weekend that signaled he might sell $21 billion worth of his position. PayPal (PYPL) disappointed investors with their guidance during an earnings call, sending the stock lower by -10.46%. Zynga (ZNG) and DR Horton (DHI) smashed investor expectations with their earnings, marching +9.44% and +5.18% higher. They topped the Daily Update Growth List. Joining PayPal and Tesla at the bottom of the growth list was Lemonade (LMND). Despite solid earnings, Lemonade declined -10.72% after making investors nervous with guidance and some key business metrics. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The focus will be on October's Consumer Price Index data, released before the market opens on Wednesday. The CPI data will show how much produce price inflation passed along to consumers. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will also be available. After the market opens, Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Walt Disney (DIS), Opendoor (OPEN), Bumble (BMBL), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Wendy's (WEN) are a few of the earnings reports scheduled for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq declined for the first time in 12 sessions. The index extended more than 6% above its 50-day moving average before pulling back. If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, it would mean a -0.58% decline. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 10/4 low point to a +1.10% gain for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's easy to look at today's decline as a reaction to inflation fears. However, indexes were extended after many consecutive days of gains and needed to pause or decline to let moving averages catch up. Good or bad surprises in Consumer Price Index data in the morning will undoubtedly impact investor sentiment. Equity markets will react in the short term, but look for what happens in the bond market for what big investors believe about whether inflation is sticky or transitory. Based on the bearish engulfing candle signaling a trend reversal, the expectation for tomorrow is for Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/8Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (24d), 4/1 (5d) and today 4/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 8, 2021 Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: +45% Good: Gains all-day with few pullbacks, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick under a green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: Three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shook off early nervousness over higher jobless claims and bulls led the markets rally throughout the day. Treasury yields, the US Dollar and commodity prices all supported Technology as the leading sector of the day, carrying the Nasdaq to the leading index of the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The 99% closing range resulted from a 45% green body at the top of the candle which opened with a gap above yesterday's close. The lower wick was formed in the morning, but the index quickly erased the dip with gains into the afternoon that ended with a rally at close. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied after a few days of declines and ended the day with a +0.88% gain. The S&P 500 advanced +0.42% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed with a +0.17% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -1.22% and is now well within the pre-pandemic range of highs and lows. Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top sectors for the day. Utilities (XLU -0.08%) opened with gains in the morning but faded to near the bottom of the list by the end of the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were the worst performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.38% continues to retreat from a pivot high at the end of March. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all declined. The yield curve continued its trend of flattening. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. All are showing strong demand and bullish for the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.592. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 89.95 from 52.02 the previous week. The index, released on Wednesday evenings represents the amount of exposure in active investment managers portfolios. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for another day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +1.92% and +1.34%, helping carry the indexes into close. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.61% and +0.51%, but closed in the lower half of the intraday range. We are still anticipating the crossover of the 21d EMA over the 50d MA for Apple and Amazon which will signal a confident uptrend. Microsoft and Alphabet have already met that milestone. PayPal (PYPL +3.48%), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +2.95%), ASML Holding (ASML +2.13%), Tesla (TSLA +1.91%) were at the top of the mega-cap list. Big communications companies Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) joined Nike (NIKE) at the bottom of the list, all with over 2% declines. Today was much better for growth stocks than the previous day, with the majority of growth in the daily update list having gains. UP Fintech (TIGR), GrowGeneration (GRWG), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list with over 10% gains each. Draft Kings (DKNG) and Dr Horton (DHI) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday, the producer price index data will be released that gives a view into inflation. Expect the US dollar and Treasury Yields to be impacted if the number is far off forecast. There are no notable earnings reports for Thursday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is nearing the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day trend line points to a +1.16% gain on Friday. The one-day trend line points to a small gain of +0.16%. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.85% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Everything lined up nicely for big tech and growth stocks today. Yields dropped back as the yield curve continues to flatten. The US dollar weakened, benefiting big multinational companies. Commodities show high demand indicating economic activity picking back up. Eyes will be on the produce price index data tomorrow before market opens. Higher prices would indicate more demand for products as a result of increased spending, but it may also make investors nervous about inflation. Still, Jerome Powell held firm today that inflation was unlikely, so investors will have to balance their worries with assurances from the Fed that changes in economic policy are still long off in the future. Don't fight the fed. The resurgence of growth stocks continues to accelerate relative to value stocks. The gains were broad across the category today. Many of the charts for growth have a long way to go to get past overhead supply and reach new all-time highs. Value stocks have leveled off for the past few weeks, could be basing and may have some more growth of their own. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/6Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (22d), 3/30 (5d) and today 4/6 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 6, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: +16% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support around 13,700 Bad: Long upper shadow from afternoon selling Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.10%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+1.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%) were top. Health Services (XLV -0.38%) and Technology (XLK -0.43%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was caution in the market on Tuesday after several days of record setting gains. Investors are monitoring the progress of infrastructure plans and the potential for new taxes. At the same time, the pandemic keeps popping up new fears as Canada declares a very serious third wave. The Nasdaq closed with a small -0.05% loss, after climbing 0.5% in the morning. The closing range of 24% is above a thin 16% body signaling indecision. The long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that sold off in the afternoon. Still, the index seemed to have support around the 13,700 area, testing the area twice and settling just below the line at the close. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. The S&P 500 closed the day with a -0.10% after setting another all-time high in the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both delivered inside days (lower high, higher low) with -0.29% and -0.25% declines. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.17%. The sectors show a clear shift in investor sentiment about an hour after open. Energy was leading the sector list in the morning before a downgrade of Chevron by Goldman Sachs. The downgrade doesn't explain it all as Exxon Mobil and oil prices also came down from morning highs. The other signal of investor nervousness was the shift of Utilities (XLU) from the bottom sector in the morning to the top sector at close. The only other sector that seemed to react to the change in sentiment was Financials (XLF) likely as investors bought up treasuries and brought long term yields down. Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ended the day at the top sector list. Health Services (XLV) and Technology (XLK) ended the day at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.29% but did not seem to be impacted by the morning change in sentiment. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both declined for the day while 2y note yields rose. The yield curve continues to flatten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced and continue in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) ended the day with gains, despite pulling back from morning highs. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. All are still showing strong demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.523. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Among the big four mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) ended the day with gains. However the declines across the other three were not enough to invalidate breakouts. With the big gains over the previous three sessions, there should be no surprise for prices to pause here. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are all trading above both key moving average lines (the 21d EMA and 50d MA). Apple hit resistance at the 50d MA and closed below the line. Alibaba (BABA), Nike (NIKE) and AT&T (T) were some of the top mega-cap gainers for the day. At the bottom were Intel (INTC), United Health (UNH), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML). Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains for the day. Top winners were ROKU (ROKU), UP Fintech (TIGR), Ehang Holdings (EH) and DataDog (DDOG). Investors still seem a bit uncertain which of these growth names will benefit with the economic recovery as they still chop back and forth regularly. For example Zynga (ZNGA) was near the top of the list yesterday, and at the bottom of the list today. DataDog at the bottom of the list yesterday and near the top today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. First employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. There are no notable earnings reports for Wednesday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still has support in the 13,600-13,700 area and stayed above it after two tests today. The five-day trend line points to a +2.10% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a sideways move tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.90% loss, which is just above the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors showed some nervousness today mid-morning, changing momentum in the market for several sectors. Despite the switch in sentiment, key areas of support held and we could view the day's result as a pause during a fairly aggressive uptrend the past few days. Still, the candle itself has that appearance of a shooting star that signals the end of an uptrend. So it could be things need to move sideways a bit here or even pull back once more before proceeding. With the overall economic situation continuing to approve, more upside seems in the future, but only the market can tell us when it will happen. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/17Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (9d), 3/11 (5d) and today 3/17 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 17, 2021 Facts: +0.40%, Volume higher, Closing range: 78%, Body: 58% Good: High closing range on slightly higher volume, support at 21d EMA Bad: Lower high, lower low, dipped below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body covers most of candle, similar upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.29%), DJI (+0.58%), RUT (+0.73%), VIX (-2.83%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.40%) and Industrials (XLI +1.15%) were top. Health (XLV -0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -1.63%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Happy St. Patrick's Day! Investors got what they needed to hear from the fed's Jerome Powell. Interest rates will remain untouched and there will be no tapering of bond buying despite a big upgrade in the fed's outlook on the economy. The change in investor sentiment mid-day was clear as the indexes made a rally. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.4% gain after dipping below the 50d MA and 21d EMA in the morning. The dip came as yields soared and investors worried about what was to come from the Fed meeting. After rallying in the afternoon, the index closed on slightly higher volume with a 78% closing range. The short upper wick above a 58% green body was formed from a small pullback just before close. There were about equal number of advancing and declining stocks. All indexes ended the day positive with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining +0.29% and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gaining +0.58%. The Russell 2000 was the top performing index for the day with a +0.73% gain. The VIX volatility index declined another -2.83% and is at its lowest point since February 2020. It is still above levels before the market crash of 2020. The improved outlook from the Fed had an impact across several sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.40%) and Industrials (XLI +1.15%) were top. The cyclical sectors recovered from losses earlier in the week. Health (XLV -0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -1.63%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained -0.46%. The Fed expects inflation to reach around 2.2% which will weaken the dollar in the short term. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose for the day, but pulled back from the big increases in the morning. The US 2y treasury bond yield dropped for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both rose today. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Most commodities are bullish on the improved economic outlook from the fed. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.605. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation. Mega-caps overall were mixed while the majority of growth stocks benefited from the day's news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly initial jobless claims data will be released on Thursday. Better than expected numbers could be a boost to today's optimistic outlook. Manufacturing data will also be released that will provide insight into how manufacturing is recovering to meet demand. Nike (NIKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Dollar General (DG), Weibo Corp (WB), Utz Brands (UTZ) will report earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to close above the 50d MA showing some support at that level. The one-day trend line points to a +1.57% gain tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +1.13% gain. The five-day trends line points to a -0.26% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market and the fed have been a bit at odds for the past month. Today the fed won. They gave us a firm stance on interest rates and bond buying while acknowledging the improved outlook for growth in the economy this year. That didn't provide any room for the market to argue. Don't fight the fed. That can put some more steam into the market rally. Still, many sectors have taken quite a beating in the charts this past few weeks and there is still a ways to go to recover prices. Until then, expect those sectors, stocks and indexes to meet with resistance as overhead supply needs to be shaken out before new highs can be made. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week In Review - 3/8/2021 - 3/12/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 8, 2021 Facts: -2.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 73% Good: Held above 12,600 as market closed Bad: Could not hold short rally in morning, selling the rest of afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Short upper wick over a thick red body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: More than one declining stock for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (+0.97%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.28%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.41%) and Materials (XLB +1.34%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC -1.34%) and Technology (XLK -2.42%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower The rotation continues. It's not often that a rotation is so clearly seen, with the Dow Jones ending the day up nearly 1% and the Nasdaq ending the day down 2.41%. Nine sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index, while the other two sectors lost enough to bring down the index for a loss by the end of the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.41% loss on lower volume. The closing range of 2% followed an afternoon of selling that formed the 73% red body underneath a small upper wick from the short morning rally. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 9, 2021 Facts: +3.69%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: 56% Good: Good gain on higher volume, higher high, higher low, above 13k Bad: Selling in last hour of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Slightly longer upper wick with a thick green body Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.42%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (+1.91%), VIX (-5.65%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.78%) and Technology (XLK +3.40%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -0.91%) and Energy (XLE -1.75%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The rotation reverses. Today saw a reversal of the past several days rotation as money flooded back into big tech, consumer discretionary, and growth stocks. Treasury bond yields seemed to stabilize a bit allowing investors to turn their eyes on the stimulus and the impact it will have on performance in the near term. The Nasdaq closed with +3.69% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 72% came after some selling in the final hour of trading, forming the upper wick. The green body covers 56% of the candle and represents a day that was dominated by the bulls. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 10, 2021 Facts: -0.04%, Volume lower, Closing range: 14%, Body: 69% Good: Higher high, higher low, support above 13,000 Bad: Rejection off 21d EMA in morning led to selling and close near low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.60%), DJI (+1.46%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-6.12%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.53%) and Financials (XLF +2.04%) were back on top. Technology (XLK -0.40%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The rotation settles. There was still signs of rotation in the market today, with the sector list flipping once again. But the effect is much more subdued than the past week. The passing of the stimulus has investors eyes wide open while they sent the Dow Jones Industrial to all-time highs. The Nasdaq was not able to benefit from the enthusiasm as it declined -0.04%. A sideways move, but still a day marked by selling after a morning gap-up. The closing range of 14% is underneath a thick red body of 69% and slightly longer upper wick formed just after the market opened. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks, however volume on declining stocks was higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 11, 2021 Facts: +2.52%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 67% Good: Another higher high and higher low, back above 21d EMA and 50d MA Bad: Not much, resistance at 13,400 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: Almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.04%), DJI (+0.58%), RUT (+2.31%), VIX (-2.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.14%) and Communications (XLC +1.89%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.26%) and Financials (XLF -0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The back and forth continues as the Nasdaq and technology stocks rise again. The sector list has flipped back and forth the last several days as investors rotate in and out of big tech and growth stocks. Today, the market rallied as jobs reports showed positive gains in the labor market and the stimulus is proceeding to Biden's signature. Technology was back on top while Financials moved to the bottom. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.52% gain on lower volume. The 67% green body was formed in the morning as the index quickly rose to intraday highs around 13,400 and stayed there the rest of the day. The short upper wick is above an 81% closing range. There were almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 12, 2021 Facts: -0.59%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: 58% Good: Bulls bought back the morning lows to bring index back above 21d EMA Bad: Lower high and lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body above a lower wick with very small upper wick Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.61%), VIX (-5.57%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) and Utilities (XLU +1.35%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Are you dizzy yet? This rotation just won't end. Every day this week the Technology sector flipped from the bottom of the sector list to the top and then the next day to the bottom. Yesterday it was at the top. Today it's back at the bottom. As long term bond yields are reaching for pre-pandemic highs, investors are still trying to determine the impact on valuations of big tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed the week with a green candle, but ended the day with a -0.59% decline. Volume was lower but the bulls bought up a morning dip to bring the index back above the 21d EMA in the afternoon. A closing range of 97% means a very small upper wick. The longer lower wick rests underneath a 58% green body. There were about the same number of advancing and declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) It was a wild week of rotation instigated by volatility in the treasury bond markets. Economists and investors weighed the impact of stimulus on inflation, currencies, bonds and equities. The outcomes could have opposite effects on different sectors. Technology and Communications, that have growth mega-caps, could be negatively impacted by higher yields, raising the costs of borrowing money to drive growth. Financials could benefit from the higher yields driving interest rates and additional revenue on both mortgages and commercial borrowing. The winners from the stimulus bill will be industrials and materials as the economy returns to pre-pandemic levels and these sectors benefit. The market made that clear as the Dow Jones Industrial gained 1% on Monday while the Nasdaq declined -2.41%. Utilities, Industrials and Materials were top sectors along with Financials. All cyclicals, but as the first three would remain steady throughout the week, Financials was up and down depending on bond performance. But it also seemed no one was quite ready to give up on big tech and growth stocks. Tuesday was "buy the dip" day, sending the Technology sector back to the top of the list. Growth companies like Tesla (TSLA) gained 20%, rebounding off recent lows. The four big mega-caps all closed the day with gains. Financials and Energy moved to the bottom of the sector list. The 3y note auction brought some optimism back to the bond market, bringing yields back down from recent gains. The 10y auction on Wednesday also brought some confidence back to the bonds market. Yields on treasury bonds pulled back a little. But even as yields came down, the yield curve steepened. A steep yield curve forecasts higher interest rates and could mean other monetary policy changes from the Fed. That's where the fear is focused. Technology moved back to the bottom of the sector list on Wednesday. A quick refresh on the yield curve. The yield of a treasury bond can be viewed as the level of risk investors see in the bond. Shorter term bonds are paid back quickly and therefore investors usually assign lower risk and therefore require lower yields. Longer term bonds are viewed with higher risk, there's more time between now and the maturity date of the bond for something happening that will impact the value, so yields are higher. Risk/reward. The yield curve is a plotting of the interest rates from short term to long term. When the yield curve is normal, there should be an upward sloping curve. From the shortest term bonds to the middle term, yields will accelerate. As you move past the middle, the longer the maturity date moves out the difference in yields level off. An inverted yield curve shows the opposite and means that there is much more risk in the short term than the long term, so yields are higher on short term bonds. What we are seeing this week is normal in that short term yields are lower than long term, but the curve is unusually steep. It's at its steepest slope since 2015/16. Investors see short term bonds as much safer than long term bonds, likely on the optimism of the short term economic recovery this year. Longer term, investors are more uncertain. What will happen to the dollar? When will the fed stop its easy money policy? So there is less demand for long term bonds, investors selling, bond prices drop, and yields go up. If the fed wants to get revenues from selling 10y, 20y, 30y bonds, what do they need to do? They need to entice bond investors by covering the risk with greater reward. They need to either stop injecting money into the economy which is devaluing the dollar (and making long term bonds risky), increase purchases of longer term bonds to control the yield curve, or they need to raise interest rates. Regardless of comments from the fed that they are not concerned with the increasing yields, it has investors spooked, sending them back and forth between fear and greed. Technology was back on top on Thursday. Long term yields were higher, but seemed under control. Friday Technology was back to the bottom, but after a morning dip, buyers brought the Nasdaq back up to close near an intraday high. Despite the yield curve steepening again with the 30y and 10y yields hitting their highest since early 2020, inflation numbers and consumer sentiment were better than expected. That was enough to give bullish investors optimism and end the week with the DJI and RUT at all time-highs and the SPX knocking on the door. Despite all the turmoil, the Nasdaq closed the week with a +3.09% gain on slightly lower volume. The closing range of 86% is far better than the previous weeks. The index had a higher low but a lower high, making this an inside week. I've redrawn the channel from the March bottom. If the index can stay in this channel, then it would seem the economic outlook has been priced into big tech and growth stocks, and the index can start to follow along with the gains we've seen in the Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +2.64%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained 4.07%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 7.32% for the week. The VIX volatility index closed the week with a -16.10% decline. It was a wild week for the sectors as investors rotated in and out of Technology and Communications stocks. All sectors ended the week with gains. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) was the big winner. Large stimulus checks will be delivered soon that are expected to be poured into the economy via consumer spending on both needs and wants. Technology ( XLK ) and Communications ( XLC ) spent Monday at the bottom of the sector list, Tuesday at the top, Wednesday at the bottom, Thursday at the top, and Friday at the bottom. In the end, the two sectors landed just behind the SPX in performance, but did have gains for the day. Financials ( XLF ) was also one to watch. It flipped back and forth as investors followed closely what was happening in the bond markets. The increase in yields could be a boon for Financials. The increased yields would have the opposite impact on big technology and communications companies and smaller growth companies. As yields went back and forth, so did the performance of these sectors. Energy ( XLE ) ended the week as the worst sector. Although it had a big gain on Wednesday, it wasn't enough to cover the losses on Monday and Tuesday. Utilities ( XLU ) and Real Estate ( XLRE ) did not have any big days, but were on a steady rise throughout the week. They ended the week in 2nd and 3rd place on the list. The two sectors are often used as defensive plays. Steep yield curve. You can see the spread between the US 10y and 2y treasury bond yields in the top chart, also marked with a green horizontal line so you can see just how long since the spread has been that wide. Also note that US 30y and 10y yields are back to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation and the possibility of a weakening US dollar means long term bonds are out of vogue. High Yields Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices both declined for the week. The spread between corporate bonds and short term treasury bonds remain about the same. The US Dollar (DXY) pulled back from the recent gains, declining -0.32% for the week. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly from its highest point since 2018. Timber (WOOD) advanced and is trading at all-time highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined but are still in upward trending channels. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The four big mega-caps had mixed results for the week. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) closed the week with +1.79% and 2.97% gains. Amazon likely got a boost from the stimulus checks expected to increase consumer spending while people are still nervous to shop at brick-and-mortar stores. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.32% for the week. Alphabet (GOOGL) was down-2.24%. Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above 10w and 40w moving average lines. Apple is trading below the 10w MA line and Amazon is trading below both the 10w and 40w moving average liens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this report. This week all four had gains. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) gained over 9% this week. Delta Airlines (DAL) advanced +7.83%. Marriott International (MAR) gained +2.23%. Exxon Mobil gained +1.71%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.606, showing investors getting a little more bullish. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward the greed side. The surprise was seeing the NAAIM exposure index go down to 0.48. That's a fairly low level and indicates nervousness from institutional investors. If exposure to equities by money managers is below 50%, then what is driving prices higher? -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday's TIC Net Long-Term Transactions data will give an idea of how much investor money is flowing in and our of US markets. More inflows means foreign investors are buying US equities and as a proxy, buying the US dollar to buy those equities. On the other side, US investors may be buying more foreign equities, using those markets currencies. Retail Sales data will be released Tuesday before market open. Industrial Production data will also be released, both indicating the pace at which economic activity is recovering. On Wednesday, we'll get news on Building Permits and Housing Starts before the market opens. After the opening bell, Crude Oil Inventories will be released. In the afternoon, FOMC economic projections and interest rate projections will be released. The weekly initial jobless claims data will be released on Thursday. Manufacturing data will also be released that will provide insight into how manufacturing is recovering to meet demand. Monday's earning reports will include a couple interesting small-caps: Vuzix (VUZI) and Desktop Metal (DM). Volkswagen (VWAGY) will report on Tuesday. In addition, FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Coupa Software (COUP), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Eastman Kodak (KODK) will report. Wednesday will include Pinduoduo (PDD), BMW ADR (BMWYY), Cintas (CTAS), Five Below (FIVE). On Thursday, Nike (NIKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Dollar General (DG), Weibo Corp (WB), Utz Brands (UTZ) will report. Be sure to check your portfolio for upcoming earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Did you see the Dow Jones Industrial average index? Six consecutive days of gains to set a new all-time high to close the week! The stimulus, passed through congress and signed by President Biden, is a huge amount of support to the economic recovery. Industrial stocks and small-caps are going to lead the charge and eventually the economics will be priced into big tech and growth stocks and they will join the rally. Never fight the fed. The Fed is continuing easy monetary policy that is fueling massive liquidity in the market. Many weekly charts look good. It's always important to take a step back and look beyond the daily turmoil. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Treasury bonds continue to have unusual volatility. Bond investors don't like volatility. Note only does it make it harder to use in hedging strategies, but popular trading strategies using multiple maturities of bonds become more difficult. The steepening curve Is an indicator of future interest rate increases, that will continue to worry equity investors away from the tech mega-caps and growth stocks. That will have an overweight influence on indexes and impact investor sentiment. The NAAIM exposure index doesn't represent all institutional investors, but it is an indicator of professional portfolio managers sentiment toward the market. At less than 50% exposure, one must question what is driving prices higher. It could be retail traders and passive indexation that is driving the current rally. That may be a recipe for disaster. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch Although the broader market is clearly not in correction, the Nasdaq is still lagging behind the other indexes. To build confidence in big tech and growth stocks traded on the Nasdaq, some gains on higher volume is required. If key levels on the downside breakdown, we can expect the big players in the Nasdaq to also pull down the other indexes. On the positive side: The Nasdaq closed above the 21d EMA on Friday, but below the 50d MA. That's the first key level to pass for next week. That level is at 13,367.48. Last week's high is at 13,601.33. This week could not make a new high, so having the index make that milestone next week will be important. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: Stay above the 21d EMA which is a currently at 13,290.28. The 10d MA is at 13,105.93. Going below this line will be a red flag. If the index has a pull back, the 13,000 is a support area that must hold. 12,599.23 is the low from this week. Stay above that level to make a higher low. The next support area is 12,500-12,550. 12,397.05 is the current bottom of the correction on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This was a week that reminded us to take a step back and look at the weekly charts. The Nasdaq chopped back and forth, that seems like losses. But on the weekly chart, the index had a good gain with a great closing range. At the same time, the choppiness may continue into the coming week and cause investors to get overly nervous. Although the other major indexes are performing well, eventually the big players in the Nasdaq could pull down those indexes as well. It's important to avoid predictions. Instead, set some expectations for what you might think will happen. Watch those key levels in the Nasdaq, and follow the price action of the index and your favorite stocks. Keep stop losses up to date to protect from a sudden turn to the downside. But lets hope for upside. The report is a bit brief this week since I'm heading out to vacation. I hope you have a great week ahead! I'll be trading from the beach. :) Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
12
Daily Market Update for 2/5Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (67d), 2/1 (5d) and today 2/5 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 5, 2021 Facts: +0.57%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 27% Good: New all-time high, not overly heated gain Bad: Some pullback in the afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin body in upper half of the candle, longer lower wick from morning dip. Advance/Decline: 1.95, two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.39%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (+1.40%), VIX (-4.13%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.72%) and Communications (XLC +1.26%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.22%) was the bottom sector for the day. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets topped a bullish week with one more gain on Friday. Every day this week produced a higher high and a higher low on the Nasdaq. The broad market rally continued despite disappointing employment data as investors hope the data will accelerate the stimulus bill through congress. The index closed with a +0.57% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 81%. The long lower wick, created by a morning dip right after open, is below a 27% body. The opening price became support in the afternoon as the index tested the area twice. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.39% and +0.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) formed its second Marubozu White candle in as many days, gaining 1.40%. The bullish candle had no upper or lower wick with the open being the low of the day and the close being the high of the day. The VIX declined another -4.13%. Materials (XLB +1.72%) and Communications (XLC +1.26%) were the top sectors of the day. Technology (XLK -0.22%) was the only loosing sector for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.53% for the day, possibly due to the disappointing economic data. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose while the US 2y declined sharply. The yield curve continues to steepen since the beginning of the year. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb higher. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.578. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) added to recent gains with a +1.71% advanced. Amazon (AMZN) was up +0.63% as the market moves past this week's news. Microsoft (MSFT) had a small gain of +0.08% as the stock consolidates a bit on lower volume. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.46%. All four are trading above the key moving average lines, but below their all-time highs. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) was the leading mega-cap of the day with a +3.58% gain. ABT was following by Exxon Mobil (XOM +3.35%), Nike (NIKE +3.19%) and Toyota Motor (TM +1.92%). Digital Turbine (APPS) added to yesterday's big gain with a 14.11% advance today. SNAP (SNAP) rose +9.14% even after selling off -10% in yesterday's post market reaction to earnings. Magnite (MGNI) rose +26.25%. Peloton (PTON) declined -5.86% on warnings of continued slow delivery to new customers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. However watch for updates on the Stimulus bill over the weekend. SoftBank Group will announce earnings on Monday. Timing is not listed, but it's likely to be before US markets open. Chegg (CHGG) will release earnings after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.12% gain for Monday. The one-day trend is a bit under that line and points to a +0.54% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -0.58% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.54% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a positive end to a great week. Time to use the weekend to relax and enjoy the gains. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2