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SP500 moving as expected and more to comeThe SP500 is moving as expected and that supports our long term view. That view tells us that we are in a long term consolidation. I am not going to bother you guy's how to interpreted fundamental drivers which are in perfect harmony with the technical's. Just have a look at my previous posts and you will understand that the bias is to the downside short/medium term. I am short from last week with a risk/reward of 5 to 1 at the moment (my stop loss makes this a risk-free trade). I am perfectly fine leaving that on the table for now and am looking for more shorts to come. If things change I will update again. Have a good trading week!
SP:SPXShort
by TimStuyts
3
SP500 "Very long term projection" Weekly ChartSO please do not mind the messiness of this chart as I had to go to the weekly view and zoom way out which squishes everything together. I made a long term chart about a month or so ago and realized that my topping date was incorrect. You see, I truly believe that Trump will not get re-elected for a second term and I am using that as the trigger date. Just my guess on that. I originally, mistakenly thought that the election date was November 2019, but it is really 2020. So I had to move the election line and have two channels for two possible target areas. (obviously this is just a guess but lets have some fun shall we). The first black lined channel is narrowing as you can see. This is the line that hits the tops of this long bull run that started in 2009. If we only maintained that channel then the top of that channel by election time is around SP500 4300 - 4400 which should equate to DOW 38,000 - 40,000. (Not too shabby if you ask me). BUT. Does that really look like a parabolic bubble phase that has been spoken so much about. No it does not. SO what is the market capable of. I went back to the 1990's and mapped out the trajectory of price for that 5th wave of the large 3rd wave. That is what a bubble parabolic looks like. So first I took the bottom line of the channel and copy/pasted it to make an alternate upper channel that is parrellel. Then I took the 1990's price action and placed it to cover the next 3 years. And what do you know, that looks like a very good parabolic bubble phase and coincidently reaches the top of that upper channel around election time. Wild guess, I know. But why not. If, as you can see, we happen to reach that area then that would equate to DOW 48,000 - 50,000. And that is how these people have come up with Dow 50,000. At that point Gold should be bottoming at that point and everything should be in a bubble. I would be selling my house around that time if this transpires and buying a ton a physical gold and silver. GL
SP:SPXLong
by SalN
15
SP500 found a temp bottom?Last week we bounced off the 2350 level, with the SP500 seemingly having found a bit of a temporary bottom. Going into next week, we'll find out whether this bottom is "real" or just the result of a bit of profit taking. Regression is now bullish, so overall, my bias is slightly more bullish than bearish. Having said that, we just crossed into bullish territory and it wouldn't take much for it to turn bearish again. For Monday, I'm a buyer above Friday's point of control at 2380, and a seller below. I might consider a long at 2372 as well, but only if there is decent momentum...and of course I'd have to watch price until it clearly smashes above 2380 again. A break of 2365 to the downside would be very bearish for me. To the upside, we have the round 2400 level as first key resistance. Whatever happens, I have a feeling 2380 will be retested a couple of times before it really makes up its mind. A clean break of the 2370 to 2390 range will probably dictate the medium term trend. Anyway, I trade of 1min charts and will simply go long above 2380 and short below...using the m1 regression as confirmation. Should price have already taken off a bit in the overnight session, I will use retests of the VWAP as "2nd chance" entries throughout the day should momentum be strong.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TradeApe
1
#TSOT -Alternative Strats #SP500 Index #VIXA long call option in the VIX has been over-crowded for sometime, instead taking a queue with the VIM2017 for June futures was more logical as it has also been over-due for a correction before June'17 expires by the end of the 2nd quarter trading. The motivation has been identified to be a technical Island formation and the fact that a third price swing above 18.00 would be an attempt in line spread over a defined period of time. An alternative Plan B and an arbitrage Hedge is likewise in the making to ensure gains made over the carry-over period from last 4th quarter of 2016 would be protected in the event that such declines would continue to do so unexpectedly. Since we have called the price @2200-2500 for the SP500 Index, which is @2269 to this writing. In the event of a turn around, timing a relatively increase in market volatility will justify this strategic move. This would reflect only a price reversal not necessarily a trend reversal as prices are still well within a major decline.
VLong
by megatrade101
SP500 Short Term OutlookMy line in the sand (LITS) is at 2097.5. Above it, I'm only after longs...below, only after shorts. Kinda hoping for a bit of a pullback to the Tenkan, Kijun or Ichimoku cloud so I can hop in long for cheaper. Of course if my LITS breaks, my long bias is invalid and I'll be back looking for shorts. As everyone and his dog I'm expecting a correction for the SP500, but even on M15 I can't see a decent short signal (yet). Important to note that ADX has consistenly dropped while DI- (bears) gained a bit of power. DI- still above 20 too. If DI+ drops below 20 while DI- does the opposite, this bias is invalid too. Anyway...for now, looking for pullbacks so I can hop in long.
FX:SPX500Long
by TradeApe
1