Tesla. Next major support @ 64 +/-. 28/Dec/22Tesla’s stock price have broken 135 +/- major support. The next stop probably will be 64 +/-..
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TESLA Bearish ScenarioTesla share price has been trading into a bearish consolidation pattern for the last few weeks. The neckline of the bull trend, now an important resistance has prevented the price several times to continue the bull run. It is quite likely that the share price may begin quite soon an important bearish move. An entry short at around $340 with a stop in $364 seem reasonable.
Good luck fellow traders.
Tesla’s Cybercab Reveal Disappoints, Stock Dips 6.48% PremarketTesla’s stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) took a sharp dive in premarket trading Friday, dropping over 6% following the much-anticipated reveal of its Cybercab robotaxi concept at the “We, Robot” event. The unveiling, which was expected to be a game-changing moment for Tesla, left investors underwhelmed. This event, highlighting Elon Musk’s vision for autonomous driving, did little to offer short-term growth prospects.
Cybercab Unveiling Falls Short
Tesla CEO Elon Musk took the stage at Warner Bros. Studios in California on Thursday to reveal the futuristic Cybercab, a sleek, silver two-seater with no steering wheel or pedals, emphasizing the vehicle’s self-driving capabilities. Despite the bold design and its futuristic appeal, analysts were disappointed with the event's content. Musk presented ambitious long-term goals, such as autonomous driving technology making Tesla vehicles available for under $30,000 by 2027. Yet, there was a lack of concrete details on how and when these advances would impact Tesla's bottom line.
The event seemed to emphasize the far-off future of Tesla’s autonomous technology, as analysts from Barclays and Morgan Stanley pointed out that no updates were provided on immediate growth opportunities. Tesla didn’t share details on the low-cost model set for 2025 production or any significant progress in its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. The lack of updates on Tesla’s AI integration, specifically concerning its rumored partnership with Musk’s AI company xAI, also contributed to the overall disappointment.
Furthermore, while Tesla's Cybercab aims to revolutionize mass transit, investors were skeptical about its near-term viability. Without tangible manufacturing plans, regulatory approval, or significant technological breakthroughs, fully autonomous vehicles are still years away from becoming mainstream. This added to the frustration among investors who were expecting Tesla to present more immediate growth opportunities.
Technical Analysis
As of Friday morning, Tesla stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) has slumped by 6.31%, signaling a significant bearish sentiment in the market. This decline coincides with the broader disappointment surrounding the Cybercab event and is compounded by technical indicators showing a continuation of the downward trend.
The stock is currently trading within a bearish channel, indicating a sustained negative momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48, reflecting weak buying interest and suggesting there could be more downside in the near term. A crucial support zone has formed around the $205 price level, where a bearish gap-down pattern has appeared on the daily chart, further supporting the likelihood of Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) testing this zone.
With the lack of bullish catalysts, Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) shows no signs of a reversal. The $205 level aligns with a significant support pivot, and a break below this could trigger further declines. Investors should remain cautious as technical indicators continue to signal weakness.
Bearish Momentum and Market Sentiment
Tesla’s stock performance in the first half of 2024 was marred by a steep selloff, and while it has somewhat recovered, the current price action reflects lingering concerns. Analysts at Piper Sandler warned that “pre-event momentum fizzles,” predicting that Tesla shares may continue to face downward pressure in the coming weeks. With no immediate breakthroughs presented at the event, many expect the stock to face continued selling pressure, especially as investors weigh the long-term promises against Tesla’s current performance.
Moreover, Morgan Stanley's critique of Musk's failure to position Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) as an AI-driven company only adds to investor worries. Tesla's AI capabilities, once considered a defining strength, were not sufficiently addressed at the event, leaving investors questioning whether Tesla will retain its leadership in the autonomous driving space.
What’s Next for Tesla?
Tesla’s financial performance in Q3 2024, set to be announced on October 23, will provide further insight into how the company is faring. With increasing competition from rivals like Google’s Waymo and traditional automakers entering the electric vehicle (EV) and autonomous driving markets, Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) faces pressure to deliver more immediate results.
The stock is hovering near a critical juncture. While there may be some relief rallies, the broader sentiment suggests more downside risk, especially if Tesla cannot provide compelling short-term growth catalysts. Investors should keep a close eye on Tesla’s next moves in the autonomous vehicle space and any updates on its FSD technology as potential triggers for a rebound.
For now, Tesla’s Cybercab may have excited visionaries, but it has left investors with more questions than answers.
Tesla Stock Slips as Deliveries Miss ExpectationsTesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) saw a notable decline of 5% in early trading Wednesday following the release of its Q3 2024 delivery and production numbers. While the electric vehicle (EV) giant reported 462,890 deliveries—slightly above analysts' predictions—investors had anticipated higher performance, leading to a sell-off. This drop brings NASDAQ:TSLA down to $244.86, reflecting the ongoing battle between Tesla’s robust market presence and increasing competition from global automakers.
Q3 Delivery Report: Falling Short of the Hype
Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) delivered just under 463,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, surpassing the 461,000 estimate, but investor sentiment seemed to have set loftier expectations. The production numbers were similarly positive, with Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) producing 469,796 vehicles, up from the 430,488 vehicles produced a year ago. Despite this growth, the stock slipped as the market had expected a more substantial increase to sustain the company’s valuation, which had already jumped 32% in the previous quarter.
Analysts from Wedbush described the report as "a step in the right direction" but also noted that some investors may have been looking beyond these delivery figures, anticipating the October 23 earnings report and the unveiling of Tesla’s much-discussed "robotaxi." Still, Tesla faces ongoing headwinds, especially in the competitive EV landscape.
Competition Heats Up
Tesla’s dominant position in the EV market is increasingly challenged, especially by Chinese automakers like BYD and Geely, as well as emerging rivals Li Auto and Nio. In the U.S., Rivian, Ford, and General Motors are all making headway into the EV space, with GM recently reporting a 60% year-over-year increase in EV sales. Even with Tesla maintaining a significant lead in the U.S. market, these rising competitors are placing pressure on its growth trajectory.
Tesla’s lack of specific delivery guidance for 2024 raises additional concerns. Although the company’s sales are growing, its ability to maintain such momentum amid fierce competition is in question. Analysts will be closely watching Tesla’s October 23 earnings report, with a particular focus on profit margins and how Tesla navigates the balance between maintaining its market share and controlling production costs.
Technical Analysis: The Chart Speaks Volumes
On the technical side, NASDAQ:TSLA ’s stock is showing signs of weakness. As of the time of writing, the stock has dropped 3.57%, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 57.43—an indicator that the stock is losing its buying momentum and moving closer to a neutral or selling zone. While Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting underlying strength, the dip in RSI indicates potential volatility.
Tesla’s ability to stay above key moving averages amidst such market pressure will be critical in determining its next moves. Investors should keep an eye on whether the stock can sustain levels above its moving averages or if further selling pressure will drag it down into a correction territory. As the market awaits the earnings report later in the month, these technical patterns could provide a roadmap for short-term traders.
Tesla’s Future: More than Just Deliveries
Tesla’s long-term growth story remains intact, bolstered by innovations like self-driving technology and upcoming projects like the robotaxi. However, the EV maker must continue to outpace competitors and reassure investors that it can meet growing demand without sacrificing profitability. As the global EV market matures and competition ramps up, Tesla’s ability to innovate while maintaining healthy margins will be the key to its future success.
In conclusion, while Tesla’s Q3 delivery numbers met expectations, they fell short of the hype, leading to a sell-off. The stock remains technically strong, but investors should be cautious as it approaches critical RSI and moving average levels. With earnings just around the corner and Tesla’s next big product reveal on the horizon, the coming weeks will be pivotal for the company’s stock performance.
Tesla's Current Position: A Case of Uncertainty Amidst ChallengeTesla, once the darling of the stock market, has encountered a tumultuous period marked by declining stock performance and disappointing production figures. The company's stock experienced a 31% decline in 2024, a stark contrast to the Nasdaq Composite Index's 7% gain, leading to a growing sense of unease among shareholders.
One of the primary drivers behind Tesla's recent woes is its inability to meet production expectations. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla's unit deliveries dropped by 8.5% year over year, significantly below analysts' projections. This shortfall has raised concerns about the company's ability to maintain its leadership in the electric vehicle (EV) market.
Opportunity Amidst Decline:
Despite its recent struggles, some investors view Tesla's current valuation as an opportunity for bargain hunting. With the stock trading 58% below its all-time high and sporting a comparatively lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.8, there is optimism that Tesla may be undervalued, making it an attractive entry point for discerning investors.
Long-Term Bullish Factors:
Proponents of Tesla remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects, pointing to several factors that could drive future growth. Tesla's position as a key player in the EV industry, combined with increasing momentum towards sustainability, suggests potential for growth in the long run. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk's ambitious goals, including achieving full self-driving capabilities and deploying a fleet of robotaxis, could unlock new revenue streams for the company.
Despite the bullish outlook, Tesla faces formidable challenges that cast a shadow over its future prospects. Intensified competition from traditional automakers and dedicated EV startups poses a significant threat to Tesla's market dominance. Moreover, ongoing pricing pressure and margin compression raise questions about Tesla's ability to maintain profitability in the face of increasing competition.
In light of these challenges, there is hesitancy among investors to fully embrace Tesla's current valuation. While the market's premium valuation of Tesla is based on the assumption that its ambitious initiatives will materialize, there remains uncertainty surrounding their feasibility. Moreover, Tesla's susceptibility to macroeconomic influences, particularly fluctuations in interest rates, adds another layer of uncertainty to its future trajectory.
In conclusion, Tesla's recent struggles and uncertain future have given rise to a mixed sentiment among investors. While some see opportunity in Tesla's discounted valuation and long-term potential, others remain cautious, citing ongoing challenges and uncertainties. As Tesla navigates through this challenging period, only time will tell whether it can overcome its obstacles and regain its position as a market leader in the EV industry.
Tesla's Robotaxi Set to be Unveil Amidst Investor SkepticismTesla's journey on the stock market has been nothing short of tumultuous in recent times, as the electric vehicle (EV) giant grapples with diverging narratives surrounding its futuristic promises and current market challenges.
Elon Musk, Tesla's enigmatic CEO, once again sought to change the narrative by teasing the long-awaited robotaxi unveiling, scheduled for August 8th. This announcement, following a denial of reports about shelving plans for a cheaper electric vehicle, prompted a surge in Tesla's shares in extended trading. However, amidst the hype, questions linger about the feasibility of Musk's grand vision.
Tesla's history is peppered with ambitious promises and delayed deliveries. Musk's predictions about autonomous vehicles, including the much-touted robotaxi, have yet to materialize despite years of anticipation. Regulatory hurdles, technical challenges, and manufacturing setbacks have impeded progress, casting doubt on the viability of Musk's ambitious timelines.
Despite Musk's attempts to steer attention towards the future, Tesla's present struggles remain undeniable. Sluggish demand, intensified competition, and supply chain disruptions have weighed heavily on the company's performance. Tesla's first-quarter deliveries witnessed an 8.5% drop from the previous year, contributing to a sharp decline in share value.
The regulatory landscape further complicates Tesla's path forward. Recent recalls and safety concerns surrounding Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software underscore the challenges of gaining regulatory approval for autonomous vehicles. Convincing regulators of the safety and reliability of Tesla's technology remains a formidable task, one that could significantly impact the trajectory of the company's autonomous ambitions.
As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates these challenges, investor skepticism looms large. Analysts have questioned Tesla's growth prospects amidst a backdrop of sluggish demand and mounting competition. The recent selloff in Tesla's shares reflects growing concerns about the company's ability to deliver on its lofty promises amidst a volatile market environment.
Tesla's future hinges on its ability to bridge the gap between promise and reality, demonstrating tangible progress in delivering on its ambitious vision while addressing present-day challenges. The upcoming robotaxi may capture headlines, but the road ahead for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) remains fraught with uncertainty.
Technical Outlook
Technically, NASDAQ:TSLA stock has accumulated liquidity during its worst market days coupled with the release of its Robotaxi, it will capitalize on its gains as more buyers step in and then surge to a new Resistance level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.09 is pretty much good for a perfect entry as NASDAQ:TSLA is on its way to a new Resistance zone.
Tesla Faces Headwinds: Analysts Downgraded TSLA StockTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer, finds itself at a crossroads as analysts' sentiments diverge on the company's prospects. Recent downgrades and contrasting opinions reflect uncertainty surrounding Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) delivery expectations, pricing strategy, and the viability of its next-generation vehicles. Let's delve into the nuanced landscape of Tesla's stock analysis and the divergent views shaping its trajectory.
Downgrades and Concerns:
Wells Fargo's downgrade of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to underweight, with a reduced price target, highlights concerns over disappointing first-quarter deliveries and ongoing price cuts. The firm's skepticism extends to Tesla's next-generation offering, particularly the economics of the anticipated Model 2. Everscore's projection of delayed ramp-up for Tesla's cheaper vehicle further compounds apprehensions, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty:
Despite the prevailing skepticism, Wedbush Securities' analyst Dan Ives maintains an outperform rating for Tesla, albeit with reduced Q1 delivery expectations. Ives remains bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects, emphasizing a positive outlook for deliveries throughout the year. His optimism stems from observations during a recent trip to Asia, suggesting a slowdown in price cuts and potential stabilization in demand, benefiting Tesla and the broader EV industry.
Contrasting Views on Earnings and Performance:
Analyst consensus for Tesla's 2024 earnings paints a mixed picture, with projections below 2023 levels, indicating another year of negative growth. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas echoes concerns, lowering earnings projections and envisioning potential losses for Tesla in 2024. Despite trimming his price target, Jonas maintains an overweight rating, underscoring the complexity of Tesla's performance outlook amidst evolving market dynamics.
Market Response and Outlook:
Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock performance reflects investor uncertainty, with recent declines and contrasting analyst opinions shaping market sentiment. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates through delivery challenges, pricing adjustments, and the development of next-generation vehicles, stakeholders remain vigilant for signs of sustained growth and profitability. With Tesla's position in the EV landscape evolving, market watchers await clarity on its strategic direction and execution in the coming quarters.
Tesla | Energy, Ai & Cybertrucks Tesla is one of the most promising company in the car industry
Tesla's deliveries increased by 40% in 2022, and the company is on track to increase deliveries by another 37% this year. plus, Tesla has incredible, new, market leading products coming online soon, including the long-awaited Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi. Also, Tesla's energy generation and storage business is taking off, and sales should continue soaring as its EG&S segment continues expanding.
Moreover Tesla is pioneering the artificial intelligence space, incorporating AI with its electric vehicles , increasing its lead over the competition, and cementing its place as the preeminent leader in the auto industry. Despite Tesla's valuation, its stock should continue garnering robust demand as Tesla's growth should continue eclipsing other automakers. Moreover, Tesla's profitability should continue improving and could increase considerably as the economy exits the transitory slowdown phase, moving into the new AI-propelled era.
Tesla recently announced its Q3 production and deliveries. It produced 430,488 vehicles in the quarter, delivering 435,059 in this time. While this illustrates a minor decline from last quarter's deliveries of 466,140 vehicles, Tesla reiterated its target of delivering approximately 1.8 million cars for the full year. The sequential decrease in production and deliveries was due to planned downtime in Tesla factories. Tesla has delivered more than 1.37 million in the first three quarters of 2023 and should eclipse the 1.8 million delivery mark as it will likely deliver more than 430,000 vehicles in Q4 to end the year. The increase to 1.8 million deliveries in 2023 will be about a 37% increase over last year's delivery numbers.
Tesla delivered 15,985 Model S/X vehicles and 419,074 Model Y/3s. If we subtract the 8% for leasing vehicles in the Model S/X segment, we have about 14,706 Model S/Xs sold. Also, if we remove the 4% for lease accounting in the Model Y/3 segment, we have around 402,311 Model 3/Ys sold in Q3. Applying an ASP of about $44,000 in the Model 3/Y segment and around $110,000 in the Model S/X space provides a vehicle sales estimate of $1.62 billion (Model S/X space) and $17.7 billion (Model 3/Y segment). Combined automotive sales could be around $19.3 billion in Q3.
While my revenue estimate is around the consensus sales figure, profitability may be better than anticipated in Q3. Tesla has approximately 3.171 billion outstanding shares. Consensus estimates suggest an EPS of around 76 cents in the third quarter. This dynamic implies a net income of about $2.41 billion or a net income margin of approximately 9.9%.
Last quarter, Tesla delivered 91 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate by 10 cents, approximately a 12.35% beat rate. Also, last quarter's net income margin was about 10.8%. If Tesla achieves a 10.8% income margin in the third quarter, its net income will be about $2.64 billion, amounting to about 83 cents per share, a beat rate of about 9%. Therefore, Tesla could surpass the beaten-down consensus estimate EPS figures, a positive dynamic for its stock.
We've waited a long time for the Cybertruck, and it should be available for customers in early 2024. The Cybertruck could account for approximately $8 billion in annual revenues. Thus, we could see 2024/2025 revenues increase more than the consensus estimates suggest. The Tesla Semi is in production, and deliveries are on their way. However, mass production revenues should filter down to the bottom line in 2024 and further years. The Tesla Semi offers remarkable performance and could contribute around $12.5 billion in annual revenues in the next few years.
Have you looked at Tesla's EG&S business lately? Last quarter. EG&S contributed$1.51 billion in revenues, approximately an 83% YoY revenue surge. EG&S 2023 H1 revenues surged by 105% over H1 2022. Tesla's Megapack massive energy storage is in high demand, and sales should continue to increase.Tesla has been perfecting its AI program for years. Tesla is developing robotics, full self-driving ("FSD") chips, Dojo chips, neural networks, and more. Moreover, Tesla should benefit immensely from the future robotaxi concept. This segment is expected to grow from essentially nothing to a $45 billion industry in several years. Tesla is pioneering the AI revolution and should benefit immensely in the coming years.
Tesla chart looks bullish and ready to hit higher targets like 270 and 280$
Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still BearishTesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him.
Regardless, the Mastodon socialists, the Reddit Marxists, and much of the supposed "liberals" just hate the guy because he purged the pro-child grooming pro-human trafficking pro-censorship communist old guard when he bought Twitter.
The way life under Communist Party rule works is this:
1. If the Party says you're good, you're good
2. If the Party says you're bad, you're bad
3. The Party is Great, Glorious, and Correct, and is always right
Thus, it really is self evident that it is time for mankind to sober up and eliminate the Chinese Communist Party's things from the areas outside of Mainland China. The Chinese people will soon deal with the CCP inside the Mainland, and Xi and the Party will be gone overnight.
The reason I bring the above up is not to get political or soapbox, but to point out to readers that when you get yourself caught up in these campaigns, you are going to bottom short and lose money because your vision is clouded and you're listening to a political campaign and not a professional.
I've seen so many people calling for $80 TSLA or for Tesla to go the way of Enron and collapse to zero in the next few months that it's actually both alarming and amusing at the same time.
The more your vision is clouded by prejudice as a trader the more likely you are to be one of those guys on r/WallStreetBets posting his 6 figure account that went busto buying $200k worth of short term $25 call options on Peloton, lol.
Black swan risks:
Because of the situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party as it faces the disaster of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic, Tesla and its Shanghai Gigafactory faces significant risk that could cause any successful long trade to endure a market-open gap down exceeding 20%.
For the reality is that the CCP has always been lying and covering up the pandemic situation. All its data and all its narrative are bogus. Really, the epicenter of COVID and a country of 1.5 billion people is posting positive case counts and death counts 95-99% lower than literally every single other country on the entire planet?!
The Party did the same thing during the 2003 SARS epidemic and yet nobody seems to have learned to not trust what that murderous regime says or the numbers it reports.
But you can't do anything for a fool who believes in the Marxist-Leninist atheism and evolution hoax and actually wants the genocidal CCP Red Dynasty in the first place.
The problem for Tesla is the Shanghai Gigafactory seated in Babylon is "our main export hub, supplying vehicles to most markets outside of North America," according to the Q3 earnings Shareholders Deck .
The Babylon Gigafactory has the capacity for three times as many units as Berlin and Texas, and even exceeds California's production capacity.
This is significant for longs because when the Communist Party falls, 6:00 PM Beijing time is 7:00 AM New York Time, and you won't like getting caught in the 1,000 point SPX gap down that the regime's collapse causes and what Wall Street does during that session as it runs for its life when everyone is caught off guard like they were when the USSR fell.
In my opinion, $108 in the last week of December was Tesla's bottom, evidenced by bounce back to $124 that happened Thursday and the strong weekly close to end the year.
However, for long-term Tesla bulls, this is a very bearish indicator, as evidenced on the monthly chart:
For long term bulls, you really do not want a stock to break a major 2-year-old bullish order block, which is exactly what Tesla did. It should maintain it and sharply reverse if there's to truly be another leg up.
There's a direct precedent for this principle on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures, which did exactly this in March, had an impotent bounce, and has since not been bullish at all. Tech has just been a slaughter house with the exception a few days like November CPI.
Tesla gives you some greater clarity on the weekly candles:
What's strange about Tesla's price action is:
The triple top at $315 before it started dumping. This becomes a big target on a reversal.
The $414.50 ATH. Yes, this was pre-splits, but remember Elon is the guy who paid $5 4.20 a share for Twitter.
Breakaway gap/liquidity void at $263.55. These also become targets once the algo and its MM have achieved their downside objectives.
In my opinion, Tesla on the hourly looks like a pretty solid reversal with the gap between $113 and $118 potentially being a breakaway gap.
Another big factor to consider is that the TSLL 1.5x leveraged bull ETF has fallen from $27~ to $6 during this bear run.
A very likely and rational target for this to retrace to when it does go in the other direction is $10. This is a lot of upside and makes for a heck of a trade. TSLL also traded at double its average volume literally three times last week, with 15 million shares being traded on Dec. 29.
Someone had to be the buyer on those trades and they didn't buy so it can go to $4 so easily.
So here's some potential scenarios:
1. Tesla is extremely bearish but will retrace anyways.
If this is the case then $160 is where it should go and it should get held back at the last green daily candle that peaked at $160.93. Either way, this is a pretty good long from the $120s.
2. Tesla has achieved its downside objective and MMs will target short seller funds' buy stops
This particular outcome I regard with a high degree of probability. If so, $330 is exactly where it will go before it will die. This is an amazing long.
3. Nasdaq is about to bounce to 15,000 and Tesla follows a huge bear market rally to perform a bump and run reversal to $420.20
I have reservations about the realism of this outcome, but I definitely believe it's a significant possibility between now and April if a genuine 2008-style market crash is en route for humanity in 2023.
Things that won't happen:
Tesla will not continue on to $500 with a new leg up. Frankly speaking, we're standing at the end of the good times.
It's up to you what you believe. One thing I know is that people don't believe in anything until they see it, and then they FOMO or get scared and give themselves regrets.
But what I want to say to all of you is: if you want a future you have to "practice social distancing" and "hand sanitizing" with the Chinese Communist Party and all of that Marxist atheism and evolution junk.
You need to return to tradition and come to understand that it's no less than the Divine side of the Cosmos our Earth is seated and rotating in that brings a future.
The Chinese Communist Party is a demon that was arranged to destroy the human race. Whoever can't see this are the greatest morons.
TESLA : Fundamental Analysis | long from support | LONG Tesla recently held its annual meeting in Texas, where shareholders voted in favor of a 3-to-1 stock split. The split itself has not yet been set, but it will be Tesla's second stock split in the last two years, and many investors consider it a favorable development.
To be clear, the split has no effect on the market value of the company, the intrinsic value of the stock, or important fundamentals such as profitability. The split simply makes the stock more affordable by lowering its price. But the price reduction is only necessary after a significant increase in the stock's value, which implies strong execution from a business perspective.
The upcoming stock split may have been the highlight for some investors, but the most important part of the shareholder meeting was CEO Musk's comments. He first talked about Tesla's profitability, noting that the company has achieved industry-leading operating margins over the past year. This success is due to a relentless pursuit of efficiency through design and manufacturing automation, as well as innovations such as one-piece molding and low-cost battery cells. And Tesla intends to become even more efficient in the future.
The recently opened Gigafactory in Berlin will cut logistics costs by localizing the company's European operations, which means fewer cars will have to be shipped to Europe from plants in the United States and China. Next year, Tesla also plans to get serious about introducing battery cells like the 4680, a technology that will cut battery production costs in half. This is especially impressive because, according to Cairn Energy Research Advisors, Tesla already pays less to produce batteries than any other automaker, and batteries are the most expensive part of an electric car.
Looking ahead, Musk says Tesla could reach a production level of 2 million cars by the end of this year, and he confirmed a goal of 20 million cars by the end of the decade. To achieve this, Tesla plans to build 10 to 12 gigafactories over time, and the location of the next factory could be announced later this year.
Financially, Tesla is operating at full capacity. Strong demand and unmatched efficiency have delivered truly impressive growth over the past year. Twelve-month revenue was up 60% over the previous year to $67.2 billion, and free cash flow was up 165% to $6.9 billion. But these numbers are only a fraction of what the company could become.
During a shareholder event, Musk noted that Tesla is as much a software company as it is a hardware company, reiterating his belief that full self-driving software (FSD) will eventually become the most important source of profitability for the auto business.
In this regard, Tesla has a significant advantage in FSD technology. Its cars have been equipped with autopilot hardware for years, allowing the company to collect more than 35 million miles (and more) of autonomous driving data. That's more than any other automaker, and high-quality data is the cornerstone of artificial intelligence.
With this in mind, Tesla plans to begin mass production of robotaxis in 2024, and in time the company plans to launch an autonomous passenger delivery service. This could dramatically change the nature of the business. Robotaxis is likely to generate huge amounts of recurring revenue at very high margins. Analysts at investment bank UBS, for example, believe the robotaxi market will be worth at least $2 trillion by 2030, and Ark Invest analysts predict that autonomous ride-hailing platforms could generate $2 trillion in revenue by 2030.
There's another piece of the puzzle: an autonomous humanoid robot code-named Optimus. Musk believes that Optimus will eventually be worth more than the car business and that its success will eventually make Tesla the most expensive company in the world.
Tesla stock currently trades at 15.1 times sales, which is an unbelievably high valuation for a car company. But over the course of a decade, Tesla may look more like a software company, which would make its current valuation quite reasonable. With that in mind, patient investors should consider buying a few shares of this growing company right now.
Tesla (TSLA) Weekly Chart Analysis – Key Levels & Market OutlookTesla (TSLA) Weekly Chart Analysis – Key Levels & Market Outlook 🚀
1️⃣ Overall Trend:
✅ Long-Term Uptrend (2019-2021): Tesla experienced a massive rally, reaching all-time highs.
🔻 Correction Phase (2022): A significant pullback led to a strong downtrend.
📈 Recovery Mode (2023-Present): The stock started forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish structure.
📉 Recent Pullback: The price is now retracing from recent highs, showing potential short-term downside momentum.
2️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Levels:
📌 Support Zones:
$300: A critical level—if it breaks, Tesla could drop further.
$260 - $280: The next demand zone if selling pressure continues.
$240 - $250: Strong historical support, previous swing low.
$180 - $200: A major long-term base where Tesla found strong demand before a rally.
📌 Resistance Zones:
$380 - $400: A strong rejection zone—Tesla recently pulled back from here.
Above $400: A breakout could send TSLA toward $500+ (previous cycle highs).
3️⃣ Candlestick & Price Action Observations:
📉 Bearish Momentum:
The latest weekly candle is red, indicating strong selling pressure.
If Tesla fails to hold $300, expect a move toward $260-$280.
📊 Potential Bounce Area:
If buyers step in, Tesla might consolidate before another leg higher.
4️⃣ Market Context & Indicators:
🚗 EV Sector & Nasdaq Trends: Tesla follows macroeconomic conditions and overall tech sector movements.
📆 Earnings & News Catalysts: Watch for updates on deliveries, margins, and macro sentiment.
📊 Technical Indicators:
✅ Moving Averages:
50-Week MA: A close below this could signal weakening momentum.
200-Week MA: A crucial long-term dynamic support.
✅ RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Not oversold yet—watch for levels near 30 for potential reversals.
✅ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Bearish crossover forming? A confirmation could indicate further downside momentum.
✅ Fibonacci Retracement:
Retracement levels align with $260 - $280 as a possible bounce zone.
5️⃣ What’s Next?
📌 Bullish Scenario: If Tesla holds $300, expect a potential rebound toward $350-$380.
📌 Bearish Scenario: A break below $300 could lead to a test of $260-$280, with downside risk toward $240 - $250 in extreme cases.
🚀 Key Question: Will Tesla hold support and bounce back, or will sellers push it lower?
💬 Drop your thoughts below! 🔥📉📈
TESLA ($TSLA) – PRICE CUTS, NEW MODELS & SHRINKING MARGINSTESLA ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) – PRICE CUTS, NEW MODELS & SHRINKING MARGINS
(1/8)
Tesla’s Q4 2024 revenue came in at $25.17B (+1% YoY), missing estimates of $25.87B. Full-year revenue hit $97.69B, only slightly above 2023. Let’s break down the numbers! 🚗⚡️
(2/8) – EARNINGS SNAPSHOT
• Q4 non-GAAP EPS: $0.71 (vs. $0.74 est.)
• Net income slipped from $2.51B (Q1 ‘23) to $1.13B (Q1 ‘24) → margin pressures
• Full-year EPS: $2.04. Investors are edgy over slowing profit growth 😬
(3/8) – NEW AFFORDABLE EV
• Tesla plans to launch a lower-priced EV mid-2025—could spark future growth 🚀
• However, concerns linger about declining margins due to recent price cuts & softening EV demand 🔻
(4/8) – SECTOR SNAPSHOT
• P/E trailing: 177.26, forward P/E: 124.35 → major premium vs. Toyota (~8.5) & GM (~8.7) 🔎
• EV/EBITDA: 87.53—again, quite high
• Analyst avg. PT: $307.62 vs. current ~$355 → Some see overvaluation 📈
(5/8) – PERFORMANCE & COMPETITION
• Tesla’s revenue growth lags behind EV rivals like BYD (especially in China) 🇨🇳
• High valuation is tough to justify if margins keep slipping & demand cools
• Others note the potential for a “market correction” if Tesla doesn’t re-accelerate growth 🔻
(6/8) – RISK FACTORS
• EV Demand Slowdown: Price cuts & fierce competition in China
• Production Delays: Cybertruck & new affordable EV might take time to ramp
• Regulatory: Shifts in incentives or rules could slow sales 📉
• Economic Pressure: High interest rates = less consumer cash for big-ticket items
• Elon Musk: Diverted focus (X, SpaceX) + polarizing behavior 🌀
(7/8) – SWOT HIGHLIGHTS
Strengths:
Leading EV brand & loyal customer base 🔥
Diversified streams (storage, solar) → less auto reliance
Massive market cap at $1.16T shows confidence
Weaknesses:
Shrinking margins (~17.86% in 2024)
Production hiccups → scaling issues
Sky-high valuations vulnerable to correction
Opportunities:
2025 mass-market EV could open huge demand 🚗💨
AI & autonomy (FSD, robotaxis) for new revenue
Energy storage growth offsetting auto slowdowns 🔋
Threats:
Competition from BYD, GM, etc.
Lawsuits & regulatory scrutiny (discrimination, product defects)
Global economic uncertainty → lower vehicle sales
(8/8) – With Tesla trading around $355 & a P/E near 177, is it still worth the premium?
1️⃣ Bullish—Musk’s vision & new EV model = unstoppable 🚀
2️⃣ Neutral—Waiting to see if margins recover 🤔
3️⃣ Bearish—Overvalued, competition is heating up 🐻
Vote below! 🗳️👇
Tesla's Impressive RallyTesla Inc. has experienced a substantial upward surge, currently trading at $258.13 after a significant +21.13% move in a single trading session. The recent breakout is fueled by a combination of technical factors that suggest the rally may continue in the coming days.
1. Strong Breakout Above Resistance:
Tesla's recent price action broke past key resistance levels around $230 and $243, with the price surging above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $250.21. This clear breakout, coupled with a massive green candlestick, suggests strong bullish momentum.
The stock is now approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $260.30, indicating a potential target for continued upward movement.
2. Moving Averages Turning Bullish:
Tesla's price has surged above all major moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs), which are now likely to act as support levels during any pullbacks.
The alignment of the EMAs, particularly the shorter-term averages crossing above longer-term ones, is a positive sign that the uptrend is gaining strength.
3. Volume Surge Confirms Momentum:
The recent breakout was accompanied by a significant spike in volume, indicating that the move was supported by strong buying interest. Such high volume on an upward day confirms that institutional and retail traders are confident in Tesla's future performance.
4. Bullish Momentum Indicators:
The MACD is showing a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This suggests a shift from a bearish to a bullish phase, indicating that the recent upward move has solid momentum.
RSI is currently at 64.65, just below the overbought level of 70. This position indicates that there’s still room for Tesla to move higher before hitting overbought conditions, allowing for more potential upside.
5. Pivot Points and Fibonacci Targets:
Tesla is comfortably above its key pivot level at $243.12, suggesting that previous resistance has now turned into support.
The next targets for the stock are around the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $260.30, with potential to challenge higher resistance levels if the rally sustains its pace.
Tesla’s sharp upward movement, backed by strong volume, suggests that a new bullish phase has begun. As long as Tesla maintains its position above key support levels, especially above $243, the technical outlook remains promising. Investors could see this as a strong buying opportunity, with the potential for the stock to challenge new highs in the near future.
Tesla Set to Launch Six-Seat Model Y in China by 2025Tesla Inc. is gearing up to introduce a six-seat version of its Model Y vehicle in China starting in 2025, aiming to refresh the appeal of its top-selling but maturing electric car model. The company has initiated preparations with suppliers to ramp up Model Y production significantly at its Shanghai facility. While details on the expansion of the production plant remain concealed, pending approval for a 70-hectare expansion on former farmland, Tesla continues to show robust performance with a 6% year-on-year increase in Model 3 deliveries in the first half of the year.
This move to expand and innovate within the Chinese market is part of Tesla's broader strategy to maintain its competitive edge and adapt to evolving consumer preferences and technological advancements in the electric vehicle sector.
Technical analysis of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Examining Tesla's stock to offer insights into potential trading strategies:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current Trend : the stock exhibits an upward trend, recently regaining momentum above the key support level
Short-term Target : if the uptrend persists, the immediate target is at 266.00 USD, contingent upon breaking through the resistance at 235.50 USD
Medium-term Target : a successful breach of the current resistance could propel the stock towards 300.00 USD
Key Support : the crucial support level to watch is at 181.45 USD
Reversal Scenario : if the stock breaks below this support, it could signal a potential downtrend, with a downside target of 140.00 USD
Market outlook
As Tesla prepares to produce the new Model Y variant in China, its stock could see increased investor interest, particularly if it continues demonstrating innovation and market expansion capability. The technical setup is currently bullish, suggesting that, if Tesla can maintain its trajectory and break
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Tesla gains approval for government vehicle procurement in ChinaTesla Inc. has received approval for its Model Y vehicles manufactured in Shanghai to be included in the new vehicle procurement batches for official use by government and public organisations in Jiangsu Province, China. This marked a significant development for Tesla, indicating strong support from the Chinese government. It comes after assurances that Tesla's data collection practices meet local requirements following a data centre establishment and plans to release Full Self-Driving software in the PRC this year.
The recent engagements between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Chinese Premier Li Qiang also seem to have contributed to bolstering the company's position amid the ongoing US-China technology tensions. This new allowance for government agencies to purchase Tesla cars could boost Tesla's sales and presence in the Chinese market.
Technical analysis of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Analysing the potential trading opportunities based on Tesla's stock performance:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is currently in an uptrend, demonstrating strong growth potential
Resistance level : the last known resistance at 198.85 USD has been surpassed, and no new resistance has been established
Support level : 179.65 USD
Potential downtrend target : if a downtrend initiates, the downside target could be set at 160.00 USD
Short-term target : if the uptrend continues, the next short-term target could be around 310.00 USD upon rebounding from the resistance level
Medium-term target : with sustained positive momentum, the stock price might rise to approximately 345.00 USD
Investors should closely monitor Tesla's performance, especially after these new developments in China, as they could significantly impact the company's stock valuation and market strategy.
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The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments.
Tesla Rebounds From Multi Year Key SupportTesla's shares rose after the announcement of new models.
Tesla shares (TSLA) rose 12 percent in post market trading on Tuesday, tracking gains in the U.S. market after the electric vehicle maker promised new, more affordable models.
Tesla said on Tuesday it would introduce new models by early 2025 using its current platforms and production lines, while backing away from more ambitious plans to produce an all-new model expected to cost $25,000.
The rise in Tesla shares provided a much-needed boost after Tesla struggled for months with tough competition and declining sales.
In technical terms, Tesla shares are supported by a multi-year uptrend.
In addition, resistance trend line is also pointed out.
Tesla’s Post-Deliveries Surge Stretched from an EV StandpointTesla is having a rough year, being the underperformer of the Magnificent Seven group, as its peers surge. But the stock soared to new 2024 highs after the Q2 delivery report showed a substantial sequential increase, gaining more than 20% this week. Bulls are now back on the driver’s seat and have the opportunity to chase last year’s peak (299.29), although the record highs are distant.
However, this surge is hard to justify from a purely EV prospective. Tesla may have offloaded some of its inflated inventory in Q2, but deliveries were lower than a year ago, just as sales of Chinese rival BYD surged. Demand has weakened despite price cuts, the futuristic Cybertruck is not for mass production (and not for everyone) and we still have not gotten an update of the aging Model Y, which was the best-selling car of 2023. At the same time, there is some uncertainty around the crucial 25K affordable car that could accelerate sales and EV adoption, although it’s a price point where Tesla may have a hard time competing against Chinese firms.
Given these factors and the fact that the stock rally is stretched, a return below the EMA200 would not be surprising. This would create risk for new 2024 lows (138.80), but sustained weakness has a higher degree of difficulty.
Tesla at this point seems like a somewhat overvalued car maker, but an undervalued Artificial Intelligence company. At least part of the market optimism must be based on the AI promise. Elon Musk is preaching AI as the future of the firm, in a technology with the potential to unlock tremendous value as Tesla definitely has an edge, given the vast amounts pf proprietary data it collects from sources like the cameras and sensors in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles it has sold. The CEO pushes hard on full self-driving and robotaxis, with announcements expected in August, as well as humanoid robots and envisions more than a thousand of them working at Tesla factories next year.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Tesla at a Crossroads: Slowing Growth But High Future HopesTesla, the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturer, is presenting a mixed picture to investors. While the company is still experiencing revenue growth, profitability remains a challenge, and the stock price has dipped significantly in the past year.
Growth on Autopilot?
Tesla's revenue has grown 10.12% year-over-year, reaching $94.75 billion over the trailing twelve months. However, this growth has slowed down compared to historical levels.
Earnings in the Red
A major concern for investors is Tesla's current lack of profitability. The company reported a negative EPS (earnings per share) of -$22.67 over the past year. Despite a positive gross margin of 17.78%, high operating expenses seem to be eating into their revenue.
Is the Stock Overvalued?
Tesla's P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) sits at a high 45.49. This suggests the stock might be overvalued based on current earnings. However, the forward P/E of 54.06 hints that investors are anticipating significant future growth.
Other Signs to Consider
The analyst recommendation for Tesla is currently a cautious 2.62, leaning towards a "Hold" position. The high beta of 2.31 indicates the stock is more volatile than the overall market. Short interest, at 3.65%, suggests some investors are betting on a decline in the stock price.
A Look Ahead
Tesla's future hinges on its ability to improve profitability. Can the company achieve consistent earnings and justify its current valuation? Maintaining its historical growth rates and navigating competition from other EV manufacturers will also be crucial factors.
Overall, Tesla remains an intriguing but risky investment. Investors should carefully consider the company's financial health, future prospects, and their own risk tolerance before making any decisions.
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Tesla Just Had Its Worst 4Mo Red Combo. Nightmare, or a Chance?!Tesla's stock just had its worst week of 2023, plunging 16% on Elon Musk's earnings-call nightmare.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA shares plunged 16% over the five-day stretch ending October 20, as disappointing third-quarter earnings and a disastrous call led by CEO Elon Musk sparked a sell-off.
The nightmarish week wiped nearly $130 million off the EV maker's total market capitalization. while Musk's own personal fortune declined by around $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index .
The stock is still up appr. 80% year-to-date, but has given up some of its gains over the past few months with the early-2023 hype around AI fading and investors starting to fret about the impact of higher interest rates.
Last Wednesday, on Oct 18, 2023 Tesla reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of Wall Street's expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66, missing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and also underperformed analysts' revenue forecasts.
Musk then said in a post-earnings call that Tesla had likely "dug own grave with the Cybertruck" due to enormous production challenges, and warned of several economic headwinds that could drag on demand.
Tesla just had its worst 4-months Red Combo since June 2023, while Tesla stocks price fading after that within four months in a row, from July till October (in this time).
Sure we can call this performance like a "mini-disaster", but still it's too early to say that world's richest man became a "little baby" who is "fully in tears".
Meanwhile strong and powerful technical analysis says that the carmaker's hellish string isn't a bad one, while buyout things right here to come.
Tesla stocks were doing well in June 2023, where bearish hugs and weekly SMA (52) were broken, so I have to say, there is almost no hellish right here, just a technical confirmation of reversal that has happened several months ago in 2023.
Tech graph below is a long-term view, with further updates on monthly/ quarterly basis.
Tesla's Capitulation Bottom and the Significance of VolumeTesla, the renowned electric vehicle manufacturer, has experienced various phases in its market cycles, including a significant capitulation bottom. By examining the chart, it becomes apparent that volume played a crucial role in identifying key turning points and understanding market dynamics. I'd like to explore Tesla's capitulation bottom, the importance of volume, and its implications during the mark-up phase of a market cycle.
Capitulation Bottom and Volume Analysis
During Tesla's consolidation period from February to April 2023, the orange volume moving average line shows consistently above-average volume, even as the average volume increased. This observation indicates heightened market participation and interest. The consolidation phase witnessed a slight decline in volume as buyer and seller activity subsided temporarily. However, this period of consolidation created confidence to market participants, suggesting that there were insufficient sellers to drive Tesla's price back to the January 2023 lows near $101. Consequently, bullish investors stepped in, initially with low volume, but with increasing volume over subsequent weeks.
Climax Volume and Recent Concerns
In the beginning of June, Tesla experienced a second price mark-up phase characterized by a climax in volume. However, the most concerning factor is the lack of volume observed last week. While it's important to note that it was a short trading week, it remains the lowest volume seen since December 2022. The lowest all year. Even the Christmas week in 2022 witnessed higher volume. Last week was associated with a breakout to add to injury. Last week, Tesla achieved fresh highs for 2023, and a price target of $300-$305 is anticipated in the upcoming week or shortly thereafter. However, if volume fails to increase in the following week, it could signal potential instability, necessitating a thorough assessment of positions.
Understanding Volume in a Mark-Up Phase
In market cycles, volume serves as a critical indicator during the mark-up phase. During this period, when prices rise steadily, increasing volume signifies growing market participation and confirms the strength of the bullish trend. Robust volume suggests conviction among buyers and sellers, validating the upward momentum. However, a decline in volume, particularly after a climax or surge, can raise concerns as it may indicate diminishing participation or waning bullish sentiment. It is important to remain vigilant during such periods and conduct risk checks to protect positions.
Educational Insights
Volume analysis is a vital component of technical analysis, enabling investors to understand market sentiment and validate price movements. In a mark-up phase, increasing volume demonstrates conviction, signaling the sustainability of the upward trend. Conversely, declining volume after a surge or climax may warrant caution and risk assessment . Traders and investors should consider volume alongside other technical indicators to gain a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and make informed decisions.
Tesla's journey has seen significant turning points, including a capitulation bottom, which can be identified by analyzing volume patterns. The consolidation period and subsequent mark-up phase provided insights into market participation and sentiment. Volume serves as a valuable tool to confirm trends and assess the strength of a market cycle. However, recent concerns arise from the lack of volume in the past week, warranting cautious monitoring and risk evaluation. By incorporating volume analysis into investment strategies and understanding its significance, traders and investors can enhance their decision-making processes and navigate Tesla's dynamic market with greater confidence.
