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Bitcoin: Bearish Distribution Wyckoffian Analysis 1H (May 16)X Force Global Analysis: In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's bearish scenario based on the Wyckoffian logic. Analysis - On the right hand side, we have a simple diagram of the market phases developed by Wyckoff. - It's important to remember Wyckoff's emphasis on supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort. - In the accumulation phase, there is a high supply with low demand. - The effect of high supply and low demand is rock bottom prices - The Mark Up phase occurs when the supply of an asset has been diminished - The demand then picks up when retail investors start taking notice of the upside of the underlying asset. - In the Distribution phase, demand stays the same, while supply increases - During the Mark Down phase, supply is at an all time high - Basd on the wyckoffian logic, we are currently at a distribution phase, looking for a Mark Down. - It's also important to note that we have been rejected constantly by the mid resistance of the bollinger band Market Sentiment: Long short ratios are at 73 to 27, with exceptional amounts of long and dominant bullish sentiment in the market. What We Believe As mentioned previously, a break and close above 10K was imperative for a bullish rally. However, it seems as though Bitcoin is having a hard time with rejection around 9.5k levels too. Interpreting this as a distribution phase, while a test of the 10K levels could definitely be possible, the bearish probabilities are still high, and the corrective scenario remains valid. Trade Safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
12
The Fundamentals of Wyckoff Theory Richard DeMille Wyckoff was a famous stock trader and investor, born in the late 19th century (1873–1934). Wykoff was a pioneer in the technical approach to stock market research. Wyckoff’s analyzed these market operators and their operations and concluded where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He shows the position of stop-losses at all times, the importance of managing the risk of any trade, and he explained techniques used to campaign within the large trend ( bullish and bearish ).Wyckoff also founded Wall Street Magazine. A five-step approach to the market. Wyckoff also developed specific Buying and Selling Tests, as well as a unique charting method based on Point and Figure (P&F) charts. While the tests help traders spot better entries, the P&F method is used to define trading targets. However, this article won’t dive into these two topics. Accumulation The Composite Man accumulates assets before most investors. This phase is usually marked by a sideways movement. The accumulation is done gradually to avoid the price from changing significantly. Uptrend When the Composite Man is holding enough shares, and the selling force is depleted, he starts pushing the market up. Naturally, the emerging trend attracts more investors, causing demand to increase. Notably, there may be multiple phases of accumulation during an uptrend. We may call them re-accumulation phases, where the bigger trend stops and consolidates for a while, before continuing its upward movement. As the market moves up, other investors are encouraged to buy. Eventually, even the general public become excited enough to get involved. At this point, demand is excessively higher than supply. Distribution Next, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings. He sells his profitable positions to those entering the market at a late stage. Typically, the distribution phase is marked by a sideways movement that absorbs demand until it gets exhausted. Downtrend Soon after the distribution phase, the market starts reverting to the downside. In other words, after the Composite Man is done selling a good amount of his shares, he starts pushing the market down. Eventually, the supply becomes much greater than demand, and the downtrend is established. Similar to the uptrend, the downtrend may also have re-distribution phases. These are basically short-term consolidation between big price drops. They may also include Dead Cat Bounces or the so-called bull traps, where some buyers get trapped, hoping for a trend reversal that doesn’t happen. When the bearish trend is finally over, a new accumulation phase begins.
by TayFx
5
Is The Wyckoff Valid for Bitcoin?What is the Wyckoff Method? The Wyckoff accumulation is a century old form of technical analysis created by Richard D. Wyckoff. It is based on the principles of supply and demand. According to Wykoff there are two main phases in a market cycle: The accumulation phase and the distribution phase. f this was our Wyckoff spring moment then July could be very exciting! — Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) June 22, 2021 The accumulation phase usually follows a big price drop (Phase A) In the accumulation phase the price bottoms out as investors are starting to accumulate share or in this case Bitcoin. The demand and supply are close to even until slowly investors feel more comfortable to buy more and the price rises (Phase D and E in Graph). The distribution phase can be imagined as the mirrored version of this graph. After a heavy price increase, demand and supply are even and the price stops increasing, over time leading to a larger crash in price. Wyckoffs method states markets never repeat exact circumstances. So, instead of looking for the market to repeat itself, Wyckoff’s method requires analysts to look at broader sets of patterns. All price patterns vary slightly from previous incarnations either by size or volume to therefore making analysts adopt to different sets of outcomes instead of the same one. The second rule to the Wyckoff method tells investors and analysts to respect market relativity. Meaning, in order to understand today’s market trend, one must also evaluate the past. Finally, In the Wyckoff method, Wyckoff introduced three trends. These include up, down, and flat. He also introduced three time frames in his strategy: short term, intermediate, and long term. Is the Wyckoff Method valid? According to many experts in the industry, we could soon entering an uptrend in Bitcoin price. “In terms of the Wyckoff method, this $28.8K lower low is very similar to the $65K higher high. Both cause a maximum emotional effect on market participants.” Final thoughts Time will soon tell if the Bitcoin bounce off of 28k support this week is the spring to send Bitcoin back to reach it’s previous all time high. Many in crypto are hoping for a bullish reversal of the market come July.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sachi_diary
12
NZD/JPY 4H Wyckoff 23:1 Risk to Reward RatioWyckoff Trading Method is amazing to understand the market and the big players who move the market. The idea is to understand when the market consolidates and wether it is in a distribution/re-distribution phase or accumulation/re-accumulation phase. Wyckoff gives you a big Risk to Reward Ration if entered right. In the NZD/JPY attached picture, the price consolidated and before it there was a change of character, there I have identified the PS (Point of Supply). Then the SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) were identified alongside ST (Second Test) to mark the end of Phase A. Trading Ranges are identified by SC & AR. Phase B had an Ultimate Thrust followed by an ST for Phase B. Phase C is where the big players trick you into thinking the price will go down while in fact the want to push it up. That is called the Spring which is then followed by a Test. The Test usually happens to gather the hedge funds companies to join along. Phase D is where we see Signs of Strength and could be followed by a Last Point of Supply for any companies to join along. You could enter a trade in Phase C or Phase D only and you could even go on lower timeframes for better entries. You have to have patiences when trading Wyckoff because you could have Re-accumulation instead of Accumulation. In our online courses, we'll teach you how you can identify the difference :) Please share and support and let me know what you think in the comments section. Thanks !
by yousifkf
ALGO completing Wyckoff accumulation phaseAfter a multi-month period of mark-down ALGO is exhibiting the final stages of Wyckoff's accumulation model: 1. Preliminary Support (PS) established 2. Selling Climax (SC) achieved 3. Automatic Rally (AR) occurred 4. Secondary Tests (ST) occurred 5. Price broke key resistance level (Sign Of Strength / "crossed the creek" 6. Price Backed Up ("walk back to creek") The next phase is the mark-up phase. This could correspond well with a mid-term rally off SPY support level.
FTX:ALGOPERPLong
by cryptomius
Ethereum Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics AnalysisIn this post, I'll be analyzing Ethereum's Tether pair (USDT), using the Wyckoff Method. What is the Wyckoff Method? The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard Demille Wyckoff, a famous technical analyst of the early 20th century. He proposed the idea that markets can be understood through a detailed analysis of its supply and demand, which is seen through price action, volume, and time. He developed the idea of correctly anticipating and judging the direction and magnitude of a move out of a trading range. Why does Wyckoff's Method work so well in cryptocurrency markets? We can see Wyckoff's accumulation and distribution schematics working best when applied to cryptocurrency markets. This is mostly because his theory assumes a "composite man", a being who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the asset to your disadvantage if you don't understand the game he plays, and to great profit if you understand it. He event went as far as to say that it doesn't matter whether the market moves are real or not; whether it happens by real buying or selling, or artificial buying or selling by investors. As such, the Wyckoff Method is a perfect fit for a heavily manipulated market, such as the cryptocurrency market, as it allows traders to think like a whale. In the cryptocurrency market, thinking like a whale (a composite man) will help a trader profit tremendously. Terminology - Preliminary Support (PS): This is where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged downtrend. - Selling Climax (SC): This is the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy panic selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests near the bottom. - Automatic Rally (AR): This is where intense selling pressure is greatly diminished. - Secondary Test (ST): A point in which price revisits the area of the Selling Climax (SC) to test the supply and demand balance at these levels. - Sign of Strength (SOS): A point where the price advances on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. - Last Point of Support (LPS): The low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Analysis - Ethereum's chart on the 4h time frame can be interpreted from Wyckoff's accumulation schematics. - Phase A: This phase marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. - Phase B: This phase serves as a function of a new uptrend. This is where professional interests accumulate, at relatively low prices, in preparation for the next markup. - Phase C: This is where stock prices go through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing smart money investors to confirm a markup - Phase D: If the analysis is correct, this is the phase in which consistent demand dominates supply - Phase E: The asset breaks out, leaving the trading range, and the markup is obvious to everyone in the market. Counterarguments - While Ethereum seems to consolidate in a bull flag pattern, it currently seems to lack the strength and momentum required to break through the resistance zones, to complete its markup. - Nonetheless, the weekly chart remains dominantly bullish - While there is a lack of momentum on the shorter time frames, it could be said that Ethereum has secured its significant support levels - It could also be said that the Wyckoff Accumulation is taking place within the support zone of the weekly chart, indicating signs of bullishness. Conclusion While it's difficult to rely solely on the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics for a clear picture of where Ethereum is headed next, it definitely help shed light on the price movement from an alternative perspective. Given that more volume flows into Ethereum, and the trend is supported by strength and volume, we could see the accumulation complete with a markup.
by Michael_Wang_Official