Tesla Faces Headwinds: Analysts Downgraded TSLA StockTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer, finds itself at a crossroads as analysts' sentiments diverge on the company's prospects. Recent downgrades and contrasting opinions reflect uncertainty surrounding Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) delivery expectations, pricing strategy, and the viability of its next-generation vehicles. Let's delve into the nuanced landscape of Tesla's stock analysis and the divergent views shaping its trajectory.
Downgrades and Concerns:
Wells Fargo's downgrade of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to underweight, with a reduced price target, highlights concerns over disappointing first-quarter deliveries and ongoing price cuts. The firm's skepticism extends to Tesla's next-generation offering, particularly the economics of the anticipated Model 2. Everscore's projection of delayed ramp-up for Tesla's cheaper vehicle further compounds apprehensions, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty:
Despite the prevailing skepticism, Wedbush Securities' analyst Dan Ives maintains an outperform rating for Tesla, albeit with reduced Q1 delivery expectations. Ives remains bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects, emphasizing a positive outlook for deliveries throughout the year. His optimism stems from observations during a recent trip to Asia, suggesting a slowdown in price cuts and potential stabilization in demand, benefiting Tesla and the broader EV industry.
Contrasting Views on Earnings and Performance:
Analyst consensus for Tesla's 2024 earnings paints a mixed picture, with projections below 2023 levels, indicating another year of negative growth. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas echoes concerns, lowering earnings projections and envisioning potential losses for Tesla in 2024. Despite trimming his price target, Jonas maintains an overweight rating, underscoring the complexity of Tesla's performance outlook amidst evolving market dynamics.
Market Response and Outlook:
Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock performance reflects investor uncertainty, with recent declines and contrasting analyst opinions shaping market sentiment. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates through delivery challenges, pricing adjustments, and the development of next-generation vehicles, stakeholders remain vigilant for signs of sustained growth and profitability. With Tesla's position in the EV landscape evolving, market watchers await clarity on its strategic direction and execution in the coming quarters.
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Tesla | Energy, Ai & Cybertrucks Tesla is one of the most promising company in the car industry
Tesla's deliveries increased by 40% in 2022, and the company is on track to increase deliveries by another 37% this year. plus, Tesla has incredible, new, market leading products coming online soon, including the long-awaited Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi. Also, Tesla's energy generation and storage business is taking off, and sales should continue soaring as its EG&S segment continues expanding.
Moreover Tesla is pioneering the artificial intelligence space, incorporating AI with its electric vehicles , increasing its lead over the competition, and cementing its place as the preeminent leader in the auto industry. Despite Tesla's valuation, its stock should continue garnering robust demand as Tesla's growth should continue eclipsing other automakers. Moreover, Tesla's profitability should continue improving and could increase considerably as the economy exits the transitory slowdown phase, moving into the new AI-propelled era.
Tesla recently announced its Q3 production and deliveries. It produced 430,488 vehicles in the quarter, delivering 435,059 in this time. While this illustrates a minor decline from last quarter's deliveries of 466,140 vehicles, Tesla reiterated its target of delivering approximately 1.8 million cars for the full year. The sequential decrease in production and deliveries was due to planned downtime in Tesla factories. Tesla has delivered more than 1.37 million in the first three quarters of 2023 and should eclipse the 1.8 million delivery mark as it will likely deliver more than 430,000 vehicles in Q4 to end the year. The increase to 1.8 million deliveries in 2023 will be about a 37% increase over last year's delivery numbers.
Tesla delivered 15,985 Model S/X vehicles and 419,074 Model Y/3s. If we subtract the 8% for leasing vehicles in the Model S/X segment, we have about 14,706 Model S/Xs sold. Also, if we remove the 4% for lease accounting in the Model Y/3 segment, we have around 402,311 Model 3/Ys sold in Q3. Applying an ASP of about $44,000 in the Model 3/Y segment and around $110,000 in the Model S/X space provides a vehicle sales estimate of $1.62 billion (Model S/X space) and $17.7 billion (Model 3/Y segment). Combined automotive sales could be around $19.3 billion in Q3.
While my revenue estimate is around the consensus sales figure, profitability may be better than anticipated in Q3. Tesla has approximately 3.171 billion outstanding shares. Consensus estimates suggest an EPS of around 76 cents in the third quarter. This dynamic implies a net income of about $2.41 billion or a net income margin of approximately 9.9%.
Last quarter, Tesla delivered 91 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate by 10 cents, approximately a 12.35% beat rate. Also, last quarter's net income margin was about 10.8%. If Tesla achieves a 10.8% income margin in the third quarter, its net income will be about $2.64 billion, amounting to about 83 cents per share, a beat rate of about 9%. Therefore, Tesla could surpass the beaten-down consensus estimate EPS figures, a positive dynamic for its stock.
We've waited a long time for the Cybertruck, and it should be available for customers in early 2024. The Cybertruck could account for approximately $8 billion in annual revenues. Thus, we could see 2024/2025 revenues increase more than the consensus estimates suggest. The Tesla Semi is in production, and deliveries are on their way. However, mass production revenues should filter down to the bottom line in 2024 and further years. The Tesla Semi offers remarkable performance and could contribute around $12.5 billion in annual revenues in the next few years.
Have you looked at Tesla's EG&S business lately? Last quarter. EG&S contributed$1.51 billion in revenues, approximately an 83% YoY revenue surge. EG&S 2023 H1 revenues surged by 105% over H1 2022. Tesla's Megapack massive energy storage is in high demand, and sales should continue to increase.Tesla has been perfecting its AI program for years. Tesla is developing robotics, full self-driving ("FSD") chips, Dojo chips, neural networks, and more. Moreover, Tesla should benefit immensely from the future robotaxi concept. This segment is expected to grow from essentially nothing to a $45 billion industry in several years. Tesla is pioneering the AI revolution and should benefit immensely in the coming years.
Tesla chart looks bullish and ready to hit higher targets like 270 and 280$
Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still BearishTesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him.
Regardless, the Mastodon socialists, the Reddit Marxists, and much of the supposed "liberals" just hate the guy because he purged the pro-child grooming pro-human trafficking pro-censorship communist old guard when he bought Twitter.
The way life under Communist Party rule works is this:
1. If the Party says you're good, you're good
2. If the Party says you're bad, you're bad
3. The Party is Great, Glorious, and Correct, and is always right
Thus, it really is self evident that it is time for mankind to sober up and eliminate the Chinese Communist Party's things from the areas outside of Mainland China. The Chinese people will soon deal with the CCP inside the Mainland, and Xi and the Party will be gone overnight.
The reason I bring the above up is not to get political or soapbox, but to point out to readers that when you get yourself caught up in these campaigns, you are going to bottom short and lose money because your vision is clouded and you're listening to a political campaign and not a professional.
I've seen so many people calling for $80 TSLA or for Tesla to go the way of Enron and collapse to zero in the next few months that it's actually both alarming and amusing at the same time.
The more your vision is clouded by prejudice as a trader the more likely you are to be one of those guys on r/WallStreetBets posting his 6 figure account that went busto buying $200k worth of short term $25 call options on Peloton, lol.
Black swan risks:
Because of the situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party as it faces the disaster of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic, Tesla and its Shanghai Gigafactory faces significant risk that could cause any successful long trade to endure a market-open gap down exceeding 20%.
For the reality is that the CCP has always been lying and covering up the pandemic situation. All its data and all its narrative are bogus. Really, the epicenter of COVID and a country of 1.5 billion people is posting positive case counts and death counts 95-99% lower than literally every single other country on the entire planet?!
The Party did the same thing during the 2003 SARS epidemic and yet nobody seems to have learned to not trust what that murderous regime says or the numbers it reports.
But you can't do anything for a fool who believes in the Marxist-Leninist atheism and evolution hoax and actually wants the genocidal CCP Red Dynasty in the first place.
The problem for Tesla is the Shanghai Gigafactory seated in Babylon is "our main export hub, supplying vehicles to most markets outside of North America," according to the Q3 earnings Shareholders Deck .
The Babylon Gigafactory has the capacity for three times as many units as Berlin and Texas, and even exceeds California's production capacity.
This is significant for longs because when the Communist Party falls, 6:00 PM Beijing time is 7:00 AM New York Time, and you won't like getting caught in the 1,000 point SPX gap down that the regime's collapse causes and what Wall Street does during that session as it runs for its life when everyone is caught off guard like they were when the USSR fell.
In my opinion, $108 in the last week of December was Tesla's bottom, evidenced by bounce back to $124 that happened Thursday and the strong weekly close to end the year.
However, for long-term Tesla bulls, this is a very bearish indicator, as evidenced on the monthly chart:
For long term bulls, you really do not want a stock to break a major 2-year-old bullish order block, which is exactly what Tesla did. It should maintain it and sharply reverse if there's to truly be another leg up.
There's a direct precedent for this principle on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures, which did exactly this in March, had an impotent bounce, and has since not been bullish at all. Tech has just been a slaughter house with the exception a few days like November CPI.
Tesla gives you some greater clarity on the weekly candles:
What's strange about Tesla's price action is:
The triple top at $315 before it started dumping. This becomes a big target on a reversal.
The $414.50 ATH. Yes, this was pre-splits, but remember Elon is the guy who paid $5 4.20 a share for Twitter.
Breakaway gap/liquidity void at $263.55. These also become targets once the algo and its MM have achieved their downside objectives.
In my opinion, Tesla on the hourly looks like a pretty solid reversal with the gap between $113 and $118 potentially being a breakaway gap.
Another big factor to consider is that the TSLL 1.5x leveraged bull ETF has fallen from $27~ to $6 during this bear run.
A very likely and rational target for this to retrace to when it does go in the other direction is $10. This is a lot of upside and makes for a heck of a trade. TSLL also traded at double its average volume literally three times last week, with 15 million shares being traded on Dec. 29.
Someone had to be the buyer on those trades and they didn't buy so it can go to $4 so easily.
So here's some potential scenarios:
1. Tesla is extremely bearish but will retrace anyways.
If this is the case then $160 is where it should go and it should get held back at the last green daily candle that peaked at $160.93. Either way, this is a pretty good long from the $120s.
2. Tesla has achieved its downside objective and MMs will target short seller funds' buy stops
This particular outcome I regard with a high degree of probability. If so, $330 is exactly where it will go before it will die. This is an amazing long.
3. Nasdaq is about to bounce to 15,000 and Tesla follows a huge bear market rally to perform a bump and run reversal to $420.20
I have reservations about the realism of this outcome, but I definitely believe it's a significant possibility between now and April if a genuine 2008-style market crash is en route for humanity in 2023.
Things that won't happen:
Tesla will not continue on to $500 with a new leg up. Frankly speaking, we're standing at the end of the good times.
It's up to you what you believe. One thing I know is that people don't believe in anything until they see it, and then they FOMO or get scared and give themselves regrets.
But what I want to say to all of you is: if you want a future you have to "practice social distancing" and "hand sanitizing" with the Chinese Communist Party and all of that Marxist atheism and evolution junk.
You need to return to tradition and come to understand that it's no less than the Divine side of the Cosmos our Earth is seated and rotating in that brings a future.
The Chinese Communist Party is a demon that was arranged to destroy the human race. Whoever can't see this are the greatest morons.
TESLA : Fundamental Analysis | long from support | LONG Tesla recently held its annual meeting in Texas, where shareholders voted in favor of a 3-to-1 stock split. The split itself has not yet been set, but it will be Tesla's second stock split in the last two years, and many investors consider it a favorable development.
To be clear, the split has no effect on the market value of the company, the intrinsic value of the stock, or important fundamentals such as profitability. The split simply makes the stock more affordable by lowering its price. But the price reduction is only necessary after a significant increase in the stock's value, which implies strong execution from a business perspective.
The upcoming stock split may have been the highlight for some investors, but the most important part of the shareholder meeting was CEO Musk's comments. He first talked about Tesla's profitability, noting that the company has achieved industry-leading operating margins over the past year. This success is due to a relentless pursuit of efficiency through design and manufacturing automation, as well as innovations such as one-piece molding and low-cost battery cells. And Tesla intends to become even more efficient in the future.
The recently opened Gigafactory in Berlin will cut logistics costs by localizing the company's European operations, which means fewer cars will have to be shipped to Europe from plants in the United States and China. Next year, Tesla also plans to get serious about introducing battery cells like the 4680, a technology that will cut battery production costs in half. This is especially impressive because, according to Cairn Energy Research Advisors, Tesla already pays less to produce batteries than any other automaker, and batteries are the most expensive part of an electric car.
Looking ahead, Musk says Tesla could reach a production level of 2 million cars by the end of this year, and he confirmed a goal of 20 million cars by the end of the decade. To achieve this, Tesla plans to build 10 to 12 gigafactories over time, and the location of the next factory could be announced later this year.
Financially, Tesla is operating at full capacity. Strong demand and unmatched efficiency have delivered truly impressive growth over the past year. Twelve-month revenue was up 60% over the previous year to $67.2 billion, and free cash flow was up 165% to $6.9 billion. But these numbers are only a fraction of what the company could become.
During a shareholder event, Musk noted that Tesla is as much a software company as it is a hardware company, reiterating his belief that full self-driving software (FSD) will eventually become the most important source of profitability for the auto business.
In this regard, Tesla has a significant advantage in FSD technology. Its cars have been equipped with autopilot hardware for years, allowing the company to collect more than 35 million miles (and more) of autonomous driving data. That's more than any other automaker, and high-quality data is the cornerstone of artificial intelligence.
With this in mind, Tesla plans to begin mass production of robotaxis in 2024, and in time the company plans to launch an autonomous passenger delivery service. This could dramatically change the nature of the business. Robotaxis is likely to generate huge amounts of recurring revenue at very high margins. Analysts at investment bank UBS, for example, believe the robotaxi market will be worth at least $2 trillion by 2030, and Ark Invest analysts predict that autonomous ride-hailing platforms could generate $2 trillion in revenue by 2030.
There's another piece of the puzzle: an autonomous humanoid robot code-named Optimus. Musk believes that Optimus will eventually be worth more than the car business and that its success will eventually make Tesla the most expensive company in the world.
Tesla stock currently trades at 15.1 times sales, which is an unbelievably high valuation for a car company. But over the course of a decade, Tesla may look more like a software company, which would make its current valuation quite reasonable. With that in mind, patient investors should consider buying a few shares of this growing company right now.
Tesla's Impressive RallyTesla Inc. has experienced a substantial upward surge, currently trading at $258.13 after a significant +21.13% move in a single trading session. The recent breakout is fueled by a combination of technical factors that suggest the rally may continue in the coming days.
1. Strong Breakout Above Resistance:
Tesla's recent price action broke past key resistance levels around $230 and $243, with the price surging above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $250.21. This clear breakout, coupled with a massive green candlestick, suggests strong bullish momentum.
The stock is now approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $260.30, indicating a potential target for continued upward movement.
2. Moving Averages Turning Bullish:
Tesla's price has surged above all major moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs), which are now likely to act as support levels during any pullbacks.
The alignment of the EMAs, particularly the shorter-term averages crossing above longer-term ones, is a positive sign that the uptrend is gaining strength.
3. Volume Surge Confirms Momentum:
The recent breakout was accompanied by a significant spike in volume, indicating that the move was supported by strong buying interest. Such high volume on an upward day confirms that institutional and retail traders are confident in Tesla's future performance.
4. Bullish Momentum Indicators:
The MACD is showing a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This suggests a shift from a bearish to a bullish phase, indicating that the recent upward move has solid momentum.
RSI is currently at 64.65, just below the overbought level of 70. This position indicates that there’s still room for Tesla to move higher before hitting overbought conditions, allowing for more potential upside.
5. Pivot Points and Fibonacci Targets:
Tesla is comfortably above its key pivot level at $243.12, suggesting that previous resistance has now turned into support.
The next targets for the stock are around the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $260.30, with potential to challenge higher resistance levels if the rally sustains its pace.
Tesla’s sharp upward movement, backed by strong volume, suggests that a new bullish phase has begun. As long as Tesla maintains its position above key support levels, especially above $243, the technical outlook remains promising. Investors could see this as a strong buying opportunity, with the potential for the stock to challenge new highs in the near future.
Tesla Set to Launch Six-Seat Model Y in China by 2025Tesla Inc. is gearing up to introduce a six-seat version of its Model Y vehicle in China starting in 2025, aiming to refresh the appeal of its top-selling but maturing electric car model. The company has initiated preparations with suppliers to ramp up Model Y production significantly at its Shanghai facility. While details on the expansion of the production plant remain concealed, pending approval for a 70-hectare expansion on former farmland, Tesla continues to show robust performance with a 6% year-on-year increase in Model 3 deliveries in the first half of the year.
This move to expand and innovate within the Chinese market is part of Tesla's broader strategy to maintain its competitive edge and adapt to evolving consumer preferences and technological advancements in the electric vehicle sector.
Technical analysis of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Examining Tesla's stock to offer insights into potential trading strategies:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current Trend : the stock exhibits an upward trend, recently regaining momentum above the key support level
Short-term Target : if the uptrend persists, the immediate target is at 266.00 USD, contingent upon breaking through the resistance at 235.50 USD
Medium-term Target : a successful breach of the current resistance could propel the stock towards 300.00 USD
Key Support : the crucial support level to watch is at 181.45 USD
Reversal Scenario : if the stock breaks below this support, it could signal a potential downtrend, with a downside target of 140.00 USD
Market outlook
As Tesla prepares to produce the new Model Y variant in China, its stock could see increased investor interest, particularly if it continues demonstrating innovation and market expansion capability. The technical setup is currently bullish, suggesting that, if Tesla can maintain its trajectory and break
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Tesla gains approval for government vehicle procurement in ChinaTesla Inc. has received approval for its Model Y vehicles manufactured in Shanghai to be included in the new vehicle procurement batches for official use by government and public organisations in Jiangsu Province, China. This marked a significant development for Tesla, indicating strong support from the Chinese government. It comes after assurances that Tesla's data collection practices meet local requirements following a data centre establishment and plans to release Full Self-Driving software in the PRC this year.
The recent engagements between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Chinese Premier Li Qiang also seem to have contributed to bolstering the company's position amid the ongoing US-China technology tensions. This new allowance for government agencies to purchase Tesla cars could boost Tesla's sales and presence in the Chinese market.
Technical analysis of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Analysing the potential trading opportunities based on Tesla's stock performance:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is currently in an uptrend, demonstrating strong growth potential
Resistance level : the last known resistance at 198.85 USD has been surpassed, and no new resistance has been established
Support level : 179.65 USD
Potential downtrend target : if a downtrend initiates, the downside target could be set at 160.00 USD
Short-term target : if the uptrend continues, the next short-term target could be around 310.00 USD upon rebounding from the resistance level
Medium-term target : with sustained positive momentum, the stock price might rise to approximately 345.00 USD
Investors should closely monitor Tesla's performance, especially after these new developments in China, as they could significantly impact the company's stock valuation and market strategy.
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The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments.
Tesla Rebounds From Multi Year Key SupportTesla's shares rose after the announcement of new models.
Tesla shares (TSLA) rose 12 percent in post market trading on Tuesday, tracking gains in the U.S. market after the electric vehicle maker promised new, more affordable models.
Tesla said on Tuesday it would introduce new models by early 2025 using its current platforms and production lines, while backing away from more ambitious plans to produce an all-new model expected to cost $25,000.
The rise in Tesla shares provided a much-needed boost after Tesla struggled for months with tough competition and declining sales.
In technical terms, Tesla shares are supported by a multi-year uptrend.
In addition, resistance trend line is also pointed out.
Tesla’s Post-Deliveries Surge Stretched from an EV StandpointTesla is having a rough year, being the underperformer of the Magnificent Seven group, as its peers surge. But the stock soared to new 2024 highs after the Q2 delivery report showed a substantial sequential increase, gaining more than 20% this week. Bulls are now back on the driver’s seat and have the opportunity to chase last year’s peak (299.29), although the record highs are distant.
However, this surge is hard to justify from a purely EV prospective. Tesla may have offloaded some of its inflated inventory in Q2, but deliveries were lower than a year ago, just as sales of Chinese rival BYD surged. Demand has weakened despite price cuts, the futuristic Cybertruck is not for mass production (and not for everyone) and we still have not gotten an update of the aging Model Y, which was the best-selling car of 2023. At the same time, there is some uncertainty around the crucial 25K affordable car that could accelerate sales and EV adoption, although it’s a price point where Tesla may have a hard time competing against Chinese firms.
Given these factors and the fact that the stock rally is stretched, a return below the EMA200 would not be surprising. This would create risk for new 2024 lows (138.80), but sustained weakness has a higher degree of difficulty.
Tesla at this point seems like a somewhat overvalued car maker, but an undervalued Artificial Intelligence company. At least part of the market optimism must be based on the AI promise. Elon Musk is preaching AI as the future of the firm, in a technology with the potential to unlock tremendous value as Tesla definitely has an edge, given the vast amounts pf proprietary data it collects from sources like the cameras and sensors in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles it has sold. The CEO pushes hard on full self-driving and robotaxis, with announcements expected in August, as well as humanoid robots and envisions more than a thousand of them working at Tesla factories next year.
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Tesla at a Crossroads: Slowing Growth But High Future HopesTesla, the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturer, is presenting a mixed picture to investors. While the company is still experiencing revenue growth, profitability remains a challenge, and the stock price has dipped significantly in the past year.
Growth on Autopilot?
Tesla's revenue has grown 10.12% year-over-year, reaching $94.75 billion over the trailing twelve months. However, this growth has slowed down compared to historical levels.
Earnings in the Red
A major concern for investors is Tesla's current lack of profitability. The company reported a negative EPS (earnings per share) of -$22.67 over the past year. Despite a positive gross margin of 17.78%, high operating expenses seem to be eating into their revenue.
Is the Stock Overvalued?
Tesla's P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) sits at a high 45.49. This suggests the stock might be overvalued based on current earnings. However, the forward P/E of 54.06 hints that investors are anticipating significant future growth.
Other Signs to Consider
The analyst recommendation for Tesla is currently a cautious 2.62, leaning towards a "Hold" position. The high beta of 2.31 indicates the stock is more volatile than the overall market. Short interest, at 3.65%, suggests some investors are betting on a decline in the stock price.
A Look Ahead
Tesla's future hinges on its ability to improve profitability. Can the company achieve consistent earnings and justify its current valuation? Maintaining its historical growth rates and navigating competition from other EV manufacturers will also be crucial factors.
Overall, Tesla remains an intriguing but risky investment. Investors should carefully consider the company's financial health, future prospects, and their own risk tolerance before making any decisions.
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Tesla Just Had Its Worst 4Mo Red Combo. Nightmare, or a Chance?!Tesla's stock just had its worst week of 2023, plunging 16% on Elon Musk's earnings-call nightmare.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA shares plunged 16% over the five-day stretch ending October 20, as disappointing third-quarter earnings and a disastrous call led by CEO Elon Musk sparked a sell-off.
The nightmarish week wiped nearly $130 million off the EV maker's total market capitalization. while Musk's own personal fortune declined by around $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index .
The stock is still up appr. 80% year-to-date, but has given up some of its gains over the past few months with the early-2023 hype around AI fading and investors starting to fret about the impact of higher interest rates.
Last Wednesday, on Oct 18, 2023 Tesla reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of Wall Street's expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66, missing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and also underperformed analysts' revenue forecasts.
Musk then said in a post-earnings call that Tesla had likely "dug own grave with the Cybertruck" due to enormous production challenges, and warned of several economic headwinds that could drag on demand.
Tesla just had its worst 4-months Red Combo since June 2023, while Tesla stocks price fading after that within four months in a row, from July till October (in this time).
Sure we can call this performance like a "mini-disaster", but still it's too early to say that world's richest man became a "little baby" who is "fully in tears".
Meanwhile strong and powerful technical analysis says that the carmaker's hellish string isn't a bad one, while buyout things right here to come.
Tesla stocks were doing well in June 2023, where bearish hugs and weekly SMA (52) were broken, so I have to say, there is almost no hellish right here, just a technical confirmation of reversal that has happened several months ago in 2023.
Tech graph below is a long-term view, with further updates on monthly/ quarterly basis.
Tesla's Capitulation Bottom and the Significance of VolumeTesla, the renowned electric vehicle manufacturer, has experienced various phases in its market cycles, including a significant capitulation bottom. By examining the chart, it becomes apparent that volume played a crucial role in identifying key turning points and understanding market dynamics. I'd like to explore Tesla's capitulation bottom, the importance of volume, and its implications during the mark-up phase of a market cycle.
Capitulation Bottom and Volume Analysis
During Tesla's consolidation period from February to April 2023, the orange volume moving average line shows consistently above-average volume, even as the average volume increased. This observation indicates heightened market participation and interest. The consolidation phase witnessed a slight decline in volume as buyer and seller activity subsided temporarily. However, this period of consolidation created confidence to market participants, suggesting that there were insufficient sellers to drive Tesla's price back to the January 2023 lows near $101. Consequently, bullish investors stepped in, initially with low volume, but with increasing volume over subsequent weeks.
Climax Volume and Recent Concerns
In the beginning of June, Tesla experienced a second price mark-up phase characterized by a climax in volume. However, the most concerning factor is the lack of volume observed last week. While it's important to note that it was a short trading week, it remains the lowest volume seen since December 2022. The lowest all year. Even the Christmas week in 2022 witnessed higher volume. Last week was associated with a breakout to add to injury. Last week, Tesla achieved fresh highs for 2023, and a price target of $300-$305 is anticipated in the upcoming week or shortly thereafter. However, if volume fails to increase in the following week, it could signal potential instability, necessitating a thorough assessment of positions.
Understanding Volume in a Mark-Up Phase
In market cycles, volume serves as a critical indicator during the mark-up phase. During this period, when prices rise steadily, increasing volume signifies growing market participation and confirms the strength of the bullish trend. Robust volume suggests conviction among buyers and sellers, validating the upward momentum. However, a decline in volume, particularly after a climax or surge, can raise concerns as it may indicate diminishing participation or waning bullish sentiment. It is important to remain vigilant during such periods and conduct risk checks to protect positions.
Educational Insights
Volume analysis is a vital component of technical analysis, enabling investors to understand market sentiment and validate price movements. In a mark-up phase, increasing volume demonstrates conviction, signaling the sustainability of the upward trend. Conversely, declining volume after a surge or climax may warrant caution and risk assessment . Traders and investors should consider volume alongside other technical indicators to gain a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and make informed decisions.
Tesla's journey has seen significant turning points, including a capitulation bottom, which can be identified by analyzing volume patterns. The consolidation period and subsequent mark-up phase provided insights into market participation and sentiment. Volume serves as a valuable tool to confirm trends and assess the strength of a market cycle. However, recent concerns arise from the lack of volume in the past week, warranting cautious monitoring and risk evaluation. By incorporating volume analysis into investment strategies and understanding its significance, traders and investors can enhance their decision-making processes and navigate Tesla's dynamic market with greater confidence.
Tesla BULLISH OUTBRAKE Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed his intent to invest in India as soon as possible after a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New York. Modi's support and push for investments in India have encouraged Musk, who confirmed that Tesla plans to enter the Indian market but did not provide a specific timeline. Tesla's entry into India has faced delays due to negotiations with the Indian government over import duties. The government is requesting Tesla to produce cars locally before considering tax breaks. Musk had a positive meeting with Modi and is optimistic about India's future. Currently, Tesla has a gigafactory in Shanghai, China, and is considering India as a potential location for a new factory. Both China and India are actively seeking to attract investments and promote the electric vehicle (EV) industry. China recently announced the extension of tax breaks for new energy vehicles (NEVs) until 2027. During his visit to China, Musk discussed EV development and Tesla's operations in the country with government officials and praised the quality and efficiency of the Shanghai gigafactory.
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Tesla Make or Break MomentTesla, as of recently has been in a steep, steep downtrend but found footing earlier in the week at about $166 where a hammer candle formed on the weekly.
We most likely see a small continuation of this reversal until we reach the resistance of the current downtrend marked in white. However, if Tesla manages to break above and retest its current downtrend's resistance, we can see Tesla soar to the resistance of the overarching downtrend marked in red, as is possible with the type of ranging Tesla does.
In my opinion, the lesser likely scenario is that Tesla hits resistance within the next six trading days, and rejects hard, sending it all the way down to the $130-$140s range where strong support is marked by the green ray.
Looking to long Tesla for a quick swing, and if possible, roll into the break above the current downtrend to test resistance on the larger, overarching downtrend in the ~$250s.
Tesla TSLA - Bears, Don't Be Greedy. No Moon, But $250 Is NextTesla is not the kind of stock that you want to get caught trading in the wrong direction on. It moves fast and hard and tends not to come back very easily.
Long is preferable to short, because on the monthly, it is not bearish and has left upside objectives behind. Don't kid yourself, those upside targets _will_ be taken out. Tesla is not a weak company.
It took until literally today for Tesla to finally take out a long term low after making its November, January, and April highs.
Frankly speaking, **now** you could call Tesla having entered a bear market, but only if you believe $414.50 was the top.
But at the same time, ask yourself if an Elon Musk company would come up short of $420? Dude paid $54.20/share for Twitter, remember?
Regardless, I know that Tesla is going to print at least $320 in the future, but I cannot say when that will happen. What I do know is that today Tesla has ran a significant long term low, which was from March of '21 at $179.83.
I cannot guarantee that it won't go lower and I can't guarantee it will go up right away. Maybe it won't go up at all. But I do believe that now that a significant downside objective has been obtained, Tesla's MMs will pair those sell side liquidations and panic sellers and poorly placed short sellers with the equivalent on the buy side in the gap at $250.
One of the reasons I don't believe Tesla will go take out those equal highs at $300 or set new highs yet is because Musk just sold a bunch of shares.
Keep in mind this is a guy who is a DARPA contractor and has a Gigafactory in Shanghai under the Chinese Communist Party. A guy who advocates for turning Twitter into "X" the "Everything App" like the evil CCP's WeChat, which more or less serves as a national-level surveillance and social credit system.
It's all part of this transhumanist technocratic Communist stuff, which is going in the wrong direction. Mankind needs to return to tradition. People need to remember they have a human body and that body can be cultivated through spiritual practice. What you can obtain by cultivating your mind through real life far exceeds what this modern technology could ever achieve.
Musk wouldn't have sold if prices lower than $177 weren't inbound.
Tesla won't make those big prices until it's the S&P's time to make 4,600 or new highs. SPX will be drug down by energy companies as oil collapses (Good job on re-electing the Democratic Socialists, everyone. They hate fossil fuels.) and defense contractors as the war in Ukraine goes towards negotiations.
Nasdaq is going to make big highs like the Dow just did first.
But first, we squeeze the neck of shortsellers.
This is pretty much what happened META in the last few days:
META Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull
Although Amazon has yet to deliver:
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
It's hard to say when Apple will pop
Apple AAPL - Brace Yourselves for $200. Seriously.
And I believe that Nasdaq is set to head to 14,000, not down, as everyone keeps calling:
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
Tesla to $250 is already more than enough for a crazy good long trade.
TESLA - 7% Higher Today but Resistance is Now ⛐🪫TESLA at resistance and the rebound could take a halt for the moment.
The markets are a funny place and Tesla rose 5% today amidst negative after negative projections.
ref: www.bloomberg.com
www.investmentexecutive.com
TESLA is a great company, there is no debate that together with APPLE and a few others are the Top-Tier stocks to invest in but our chart shows resistance checked right now and unless that resistance can be breached we ought to go short here..yes, we are day-traders.
TESLA NEWS:
Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) is delaying U.S. deliveries of certain long-range models by up to a month, its website showed on Wednesday, as the electric-car maker tries to steer itself through supply-chain issues and disruptions in China operations.
Musk plans to open all-night Tesla diner and charging station . That sound like a pretty cool idea but all cool ideas take time.
Tesla is a keeper but the time needs to be right. We prefer to buy over resistance or at 500$ eventually..
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
Tesla in freefall - soon to break $600?Tesla has come up on the radar and with the drawdown moving to 45% in the past 34 trading sessions traders are asking if we can see this trade sub $600 soon. Obviously, sentiment is shot to pieces and it's a tough environment for any listed entity, with few wanting to take on risk especially in high beta growth equities, regardless of the news flow from the company.
Fundamentally, we can focus on the big underperformance of Tesla since Elon Musk disclosed his intention to purchase Twitter - There are multiple schools of thought on why this is the case, although Musk has tried to assure the market that his focus on Tesla will not wane. China is slowing down because of its Covid zero policy and we’re now seeing earnings downgrades from analysts due to the loss of production in Shanghai, with a view that the slowdown is going to genuinely impact margins and earnings.
Earnings downgrades are usually laggards to price in this type of market anyhow, and the market discounts known news far more rapidly than any analyst can downgrade earnings.
What’s important here is the trend and it's clearly lower – this makes me incredibly cautious in trying to catch what is essentially a falling knife. Naturally, broader market sentiment is key, so if the S&P500 and NAS100 can in fact turn higher, and we see rate hikes being priced out of the swaps curve, with a further liquidation of USD longs, then Tesla should turn higher. A big ‘if’ of course.
We can see that Tesla is oversold but it's been that way for a while, and yet it keeps falling. Timing is always key, and it depends on one’s strategy – if trading momentum or a trend follower - notably for swing/position traders - then you’re likely short already and not seen an exit signal yet.
For scalpers and day traders there are a different set of conditions and considerations. One aspect is that price is 31% below its 50-day MA - aside from March 2020 we’ve never seen such a differential since Tesla floated – is this a sign the elastic band has been pulled too far and we could see mean reversion? Perhaps, but when markets are in freefall and we’re seeing both fundamental and technical factors impacting then what’s oversold can continue to be so.
Tesla is one to put on the radar…I think this can trade into $600 through June, but when I think of the distribution of outcomes the prospect of a short-term rally into $650/80 also looks promising, but I think this gives shorts better levels to look at.
CW
Tesla (NASDAQ: $TSLA) Slips Under 0.5 Fib Retracement! ⚡Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits. It provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; and purchase financing and leasing services. This segment is also involved in the provision of non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, sale of used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance, as well as sale of products to third party customers; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations, and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. This segment also offers service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty; and various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Tesla (NASDAQ: $TSLA) Elon Withdrawals Twitter Bid @ Support! 🔥Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits. It provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; and purchase financing and leasing services. This segment is also involved in the provision of non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, sale of used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance, as well as sale of products to third party customers; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations, and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. This segment also offers service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty; and various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Tesla (NASDAQ: $TSLA) Heading To 50-Day MA After Twitter Buyout!Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits. It provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; and purchase financing and leasing services. This segment is also involved in the provision of non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, sale of used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance, as well as sale of products to third party customers; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations, and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. This segment also offers service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty; and various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Tesla's key trend.Tesla began trading in a downtrend on Feb. 11 and has printed a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows, although volatility in the stock has recently been waning.
Tesla’s most recent lower high was printed on Feb. 16 at the $926.43 mark and when the stock bounces bearish traders will be watching for Tesla to form a bearish reversal candlestick below that level.
Bullish traders will be watching for Tesla to print a higher high above $927 to negate the downtrend.
On Friday, Tesla printed a hammer candlestick on the daily chart, which indicates a bounce to the upside is likely on the way.
Tesla has resistance above at $877.95 and $900.40 and support below at $821 and $780.79.
Tesla Major Bubble?Tesla has absolutely exploded in value especially since March 2020, which we believe was the beginning of a massive equity bubble. Tesla began trading around $40-80 range for over 6-years.
The vehicles they produce now, they produced in 2017. The Tesla Battery and Tesla Solar Roof were all known back then as they are now. Tesla has not announced anything that should put their stock price at over $900. We know why the stock rallied to $1200, and that was solely the Fed.
Perhaps most shocking is Tesla's P/E ratio which is now over 100X their earnings. This is extreme, and it screams asset bubble. Not even Toyota which is the worlds largest car manufacturer which produces both electric and gasoline vehicles has a P/E of less than 10.
So where do we stand?
We see equities going into a bear market. The FOMC of 1-26-2022 confirmed this when the Fed announced they are continuing their plans for tapering, raising rates, and shrinking their balance sheet. This will adversely affect the stock market and bring equities below a 15% correction, into a bear market.
Key Factors
Buying Volume Weak
MACD Turning Bearish
P/E Ratio: Extremely Overvalued.
Fed Tapering, Raising Rates, and Shrinking Balance Sheet.
50MA is 1/3rd Current Value
100MA is $180 Range
With the biggest buying of equities calling it quits and essentially "selling" this is a stock that I would get out of the way, short but do not expect a continued rally.
Tesla Stock Attempts To Lift Market.Tesla is now trading in a confirmed uptrend, with the most recent higher high printed on Monday, which was above the Feb. 1 high of $943.70. The most recent higher low falls at the $882 mark, and Tesla will need to stay above the level to avoid negating the trend.
On Monday, Tesla looked to be printing a shooting star candlestick on the daily chart, which indicates the high low could come on Tuesday. If it does, traders can then watch to see if Tesla shoots up to print another higher high later this week.
Tesla is trading above the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) but below the 21-day, which indicates a period of indecision is in effect. If the stock is able to print a higher high this week, it will regain the 21-day as support, which could eventually cause the eight-day EMA to cross above the 21-day, which would give bullish traders more confidence going forward.
* Bulls want to see big bullish volume come in and cause the stock to print a higher high and regain the 21-day EMA as support. There is resistance above at $945 and the $978.60 mark.
* Bears want to see big bearish volume break Tesla down to print a lower low, which will negate the uptrend. There is support below at $900.40 and $877.95.