TESLA- HIGH POSSIBILITY OF SELLING BY INSIDERS - INTRADAYTESLA- HIGH POSSIBILITY OF SELLING BY INSIDERS - INTRADAY
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Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Testing Support Tesla is in a falling trend channel in the medium long term. This signals increasing pessimism among investors and indicates further decline for Tesla. The stock gave a negative signal from the double top formation by the break down through the support at 215. Further fall to 163 or lower is signaled. The stock is testing support at dollar 214. This could give a positive reaction, but a downward breakthrough of dollar 214 means a negative signal. The volume balance is negative and weakens the stock in the short term. The RSI curve shows a falling trend, which supports the negative trend.
Price Momentum
TSLA is trading in the middle of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors are still evaluating the share price, but the stock still appears to have some downward momentum.
Tesla Is About To Sink. Get PUTS Ready!!!!
Tesla Is About To Sink. Get PUTS Ready!!!!
Currently Tesla (TSLA) is in a Downward Channel. At the top of the channel I have charted three areas of resistance. On the Chart I've listed them as Weak to Strong. Tesla last low maintained a little over $100, saving its rep of trading in the three digits. I honestly think with the approach of Earnings on April 24th Tesla will Hit a new low, lower than $99. I'll List below things I'm watching to managed this thesis. Stay Bless and Happy Trading. And also ill be going live and share a Video on my thoughts on this TRADE with levels. (IM USING A SIM ACCOUNT)
Feel Free to Share your Thoughts By leaving a Message Or DM
Go Easy On Me, Im New To This. ;)
1.Market Breadth in the S&P 500
2.52-Week Highs & Lows (MAHP & MALP)
3.Advance Decline Line
4.Price Exhaustion at the top of the downward channel NASDAQ:TSLA
5.Option flow (Put Call Ratio) in the resistance level of Channel.
6.VIX
7.Price Action Before Earnings (that's the purple line on the chart)
TESLA: Bullish: Inverted Head and Shoulders "in formation?! TESLA: Bullish: Inverted Head and Shoulders "in formation?! To watch
Concerning Tesla, as you can see, we are on the 38.2 Fibonacci of the decline from the historic high of $414 on November 4, 2021 to the low on January 6, 2023.
We are currently on the 38.2% Fibonaccio which is not a very high level; in the end. It is the "wolf of Zurich" who has detected a POSSIBLE "inverted head and shoulder" (inverted ETE); which if it becomes valid would give a first target around $245, then $275, and $307 (66% Fibonacci) and finally $400.
NB: I calculated all these levels in advance for you 'also thanks to Ichimoku.
So on an "inverted ETE" we are watching volumes and at the break of the "neckline" we enter the purchase, and we put our "stop loss" below the previous low, according to your currency management!
In addition, Tesla will also announce and present its robot taxi on October 10, 2024 so I think that at the macroeconomic level it will move.
Can you imagine such news, a presentation of the Tesla robot taxi, and nothing happens on the markets??!!!
I don't think so!!
However, if you currently want to short sell Tesla you can do so, and you can put a "Reverse stop" above the previous high, that is to say above the candle of August 16, 2024 around $234, for example.
Be careful on the markets
TESLA: GARTLEY detectedTESLA: GARTLEY detected
Today I detected a GARTLEY. TESLA's disappointing margins have weighed down the stock, but a bullish GARTLEY could cause the stock to rebound around $180.
Technically the GAPs and the EMA.50 and EMA.200 around $232 and $245 are possible upside targets.
On the downside: $180 and £175 constitute a potential reversal zone (PRZ)
Stay safe. Good trades.
Tesla Faces Turbulence as SAP Withdraws, Piper Slashes TargetsTesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle juggernaut led by Elon Musk, witnessed a sharp decline of nearly 6% in its stock value on Monday. This downturn was triggered by a dual blow – German software firm SAP's decision to cease its purchase of electric cars from Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) and Piper Sandler's reduction in the stock price target. As the electric automaker's shares plummeted to $177.27, marking their lowest point since May 2023, concerns loom over Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) market capitalization, with potential losses reaching a staggering $34 billion if the downward trend persists.
SAP's Decision and Delivery Woes:
The catalyst for the stock plunge came with the revelation that SAP, a prominent German software firm, has opted to no longer source company cars from Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ). Citing reasons such as delivery delays and price fluctuations, the move by SAP has added fuel to the fire, accentuating the challenges faced by the electric car giant. The German publication Handelsblatt reported the decision, sending ripples through the market and contributing to Tesla's already tumultuous week.
Piper Sandler's Grim Outlook:
Adding to the woes, Piper Sandler, a reputable brokerage, slashed its stock price target for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), citing lower delivery expectations for the year. The brokerage now expects Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to deliver 1.93 million vehicles in 2024, representing a modest growth rate of approximately 7%. This figure pales in comparison to the ambitious 50% growth target set by Elon Musk three years ago. The brokerage's concerns extend beyond the immediate future, expressing apprehension about potential price cuts due to an aging product lineup. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) grapples with these challenges, the stock price target was reduced from $295 to $225, intensifying the bearish sentiment surrounding the company.
Market Dynamics and Valuation
Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio of 57.75 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates is significantly higher than its peers such as Meta Platforms and Amazon.com, which have ratios of 24.10 and 40.97, respectively. This raises questions about the sustainability of Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) current valuation, given recent setbacks and the overall market dynamics.
Elon Musk's Warning and Consumer Demand:
CEO Elon Musk's warning about sluggish consumer demand due to high interest rates adds another layer of complexity to Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) challenges. Despite refreshing the styling and features of the Model 3 compact sedan, concerns linger about the impact of interest rates on consumer preferences, potentially impacting the demand for Tesla's offerings.
Conclusion:
As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) grapples with a confluence of challenges – from SAP's withdrawal to Piper Sandler's grim projections – the electric vehicle giant finds itself at a crossroads. The stock's recent downturn prompts investors and industry observers alike to closely monitor how Tesla navigates these turbulent waters. Whether the company can regain momentum, address delivery issues, and rekindle investor confidence remains to be seen, but one thing is clear – the road ahead for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is anything but smooth.
Tesla Vs the strongest EV stocks - Who is ahead and by how much!in this chart we just wanted to simply compare between the electric vehicles leading stocks and see what conclusions we can draw.
We can see NIO ripping up the chart with 600+% and showing that government funding backed with actual product delivery increase is a winning combination.
Workhorse which signed a EV delivery truck deal of 8.1 billion with USPS has been delayed last week due to elections, took a big slump after a major peak last month and now at 470%.
The beloved Tesla with only 186% after reports of china competition in the EV market will not be in favor of the American company and the earning which Elon called "best ever" didn’t help - Tesla is losing momentum every day from its peaks since the EV competition is getting tighter and more crowded.
NKLA EV trucks are holding by a thread with the GM Motors deal that may not come through after all and in that case they are expected to crash and burn below the 18 line of support (see full cover in my previous idea on NKLA).
last we have the somewhat unknown XPEV (Xmotors) also Chinese EV stock that is starting to get some market buzz lately and may seem to fight back real soon after the Aug IPO and traded at 20$.
THE BOTTOM LINE is that all eyes are on elections and if Biden may win then EV stocks are expected to jump much higher as Biden represents green energy endorsement -the hottest stocks at the moment in the market are EV, solar and green energy in general and that’s where we the traders should be focusing on.
sorry about the lack of technical but in our eyes, you must first cover the fundamental in order to time perfectly your entry with technical.
Trade safe!
Tesla Abandons $25K Vehicle for Robotaxi Sends Stock Plummeting Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer led by visionary CEO Elon Musk, finds itself at a crossroads as it grapples with strategic shifts and market turbulence. The latest blow came as Reuters reported the cancellation of Tesla's much-anticipated $25,000 vehicle, sending shockwaves through the investment community and sparking a sharp decline in Tesla (TSLA) stock.
The report, citing insider sources and internal messages, revealed Tesla's decision to pivot away from the affordable vehicle segment towards doubling down on its self-driving robotaxi platform. Despite Musk's swift denial on social media, the news triggered a 3.63% drop in Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock price, hitting a 2024 low and fueling investor uncertainty.
The abrupt shift in focus underscores Tesla's relentless pursuit of innovation and disruption within the automotive industry. While the cancellation may disappoint some enthusiasts eagerly awaiting an affordable Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) model, it reflects the company's strategic realignment towards future mobility solutions, particularly autonomous driving technology.
Tesla's ambitious plans for a self-driving fleet of robotaxis represent a bold bet on the future of transportation. By leveraging its existing vehicle platform, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) aims to revolutionize urban mobility and reshape the way people commute, work, and travel. Musk's unwavering commitment to advancing autonomous technology underscores Tesla's vision of a future where cars become autonomous robo-taxis, providing on-demand transportation services at scale.
However, the pivot away from the $25,000 vehicle raises questions about Tesla's product roadmap and long-term competitiveness. Critics argue that abandoning the affordable EV segment could limit Tesla's market reach and alienate budget-conscious consumers, potentially ceding ground to competitors in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market.
Despite the setback, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) remains bullish on its growth prospects, citing ongoing developments at Gigafactory Texas and emphasizing its position between two major growth waves. Musk's reassurances about progress on the next-generation vehicle platform offer a glimmer of hope for investors amid the turbulence.
Meanwhile, Tesla's stock performance reflects the uncertainty surrounding the company's trajectory. Recent gains fueled by the rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) updates were overshadowed by broader concerns about earnings projections and market sentiment. With analysts revising downward their 2024 earnings forecasts, Tesla faces mounting pressure to deliver on its ambitious targets and maintain investor confidence.
Looking ahead, Tesla's ability to navigate regulatory challenges, technological hurdles, and competitive pressures will be crucial in shaping its trajectory. As the EV giant grapples with strategic decisions and market headwinds, investors remain cautiously optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects while acknowledging the volatility inherent in disruptive industries.
Tesla's Future: Navigating Challenges and Seizing OpportunitiesTesla's Future: Navigating Challenges and Seizing Opportunities
Over the past five years, Tesla has experienced an extraordinary journey, with its shares in the electric vehicle (EV) sector skyrocketing by an impressive 1,263%, far outpacing the S&P 500's more modest 54% return during the same period. While the company currently faces immediate challenges, including intensifying competition and industry price wars, its future prospects may shine even brighter than its past achievements. Let's delve deeper into what the next five years could hold for this pioneering company.
The EV industry has seen a steady increase in competition, as startups and established automotive giants vie for a piece of the rapidly expanding market. For Tesla, this heightened competition has led to price wars and a squeeze on profit margins. In the second quarter, the company's operating margin declined from 14.6% to 9.6% as it reduced prices across its entire vehicle lineup.
In the short term, these challenges present obstacles for Tesla's stock because lower margins can result in reduced profits, even if revenue continues to grow. However, long-term investors should focus on the bigger picture.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs project that EVs will constitute half of all global new car sales by 2035, with this percentage soaring to over 85% in the United States and the European Union. As of 2022, EVs account for just 14% of worldwide new car sales, indicating that the industry is still in its early stages. Therefore, it makes strategic sense for Tesla to prioritize expanding its long-term market share, even if it means sacrificing short-term profits. Tesla's significant scale and profitability will also enable it to outperform competitors that are currently operating at a loss, such as Rivian or Lucid.
Tesla's management has outlined plans to reduce prices on next-generation vehicles through technological advancements and manufacturing efficiencies. If successful, these endeavors could create room for further price reductions while safeguarding Tesla's profit margins.
During Tesla's Investor Day presentation in 2023, the company's leadership unveiled an ambitious vision that extends beyond being just an automotive manufacturer, aiming to diversify into various clean and renewable energy endeavors. Over the next five years, one of the most promising non-automotive business segments for Tesla could be energy storage and generation. This sector involves the sale and installation of solar panels and stationary batteries for residential and commercial customers.
In the second quarter, Tesla's energy division generated $1.5 billion in sales, accounting for approximately 6% of its total revenue. What's truly remarkable is its year-over-year growth rate of 74%, surpassing the growth rates of the automotive and services segments, which stood at 46% and 47%, respectively. This rapid expansion suggests that over the long term, energy may play a more substantial role in Tesla's revenue makeup, bolstering top-line growth and providing essential diversification.
Tesla's management is making significant investments to seize this opportunity by expanding its production infrastructure. In April, the company unveiled plans for its second "megafactory" in Shanghai, China, with the capacity to produce 10,000 storage batteries annually. This strategic move could help reduce costs and make Tesla's energy products more widely available.
While Tesla's stock currently carries a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 62, which might seem steep, especially considering the short-term challenges posed by industry competition and price wars, investors with a long-term perspective should take note of the company's remarkable growth trajectory and its well-defined strategy to dominate the mass market for electric vehicles in the coming five years and beyond.
Despite its nearly $900 billion market capitalization, Tesla remains a quintessential growth stock that has not yet reached its full potential, especially as new business verticals like energy storage gain momentum. In the stock market, one often gets what they pay for, and companies with the most promising prospects typically command a corresponding premium. Tesla exemplifies this principle, consistently demonstrating its capacity for innovation and growth in the ever-evolving electric vehicle and clean energy landscape.
TESLA: Analyst Forecasts 60% Increase in Tesla StockTesla shares have been on a roll this year, surging almost 40% year-to-date and outpacing the S&P 500's 8% rise. While many analysts have lowered their price targets for Tesla due to its narrower profit margin from aggressive price reductions, Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter remains bullish on the stock. Potter's 12-month price target for the stock is $280, indicating a more than 60% increase from current levels. This optimism is driven by Tesla's robust free cash flow, which enables the company to self-fund its operations, and Potter's anticipation for profit margins to improve in the future due to the sale of high-margin software. Despite the short-term challenges arising from lower prices and demand uncertainties, Potter believes Tesla's driver-assist software packages, including Enhanced Autopilot and advanced driver-assist technology, will significantly boost profitability. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also expressed confidence in the company's future during Tesla's Q1 2023 earnings call, envisioning a future where full self-driving vehicles generate revenue as they participate in an autonomous taxi network. While there are numerous risks associated with the optimistic scenario that software will result in a much higher profit per vehicle in the future, if Tesla can successfully implement its self-driving and vehicle software vision as management intends, there is a strong possibility that Tesla's shares will soar.
Tesla breakout Tesla finally broke above 200 and 50 moving average. Last time Tesla was above 200/50 MA was on January 22nd. This could be a very positive sign for Tesla. This is not a financial advice, just trying to point out some technical on Tesla. Hope you like the chart. Thank you.
TESLA. The fast stock and the fast to drop.TESLA. The fast stock and the fast to drop. Tesla is about the drop with everything else.
Tesla is not worth the current value and the value is pushed because of the moneyflow from state not sales.
Keep that in mind.
tesla- the swing traders jackpotTesla has been consolidating between 600 to 700 range since past 4 weeks. Swing traders are minting money both ways. tesla trend cannot be defined until it crosses it support or resistance. Until then it is a good swing trade idea. Tesla bulls has lots of opinion about tesla going to 3000 so as the bears having opinion that tesla going to 400. No one knows where it will go, time will tell. I believe the best strategy to trade tesla is to do a put butterfly around 600 level. There is good divergence on 30 minutes chart that indicates that tesla might go up in next week. 700 is a strong resistance, will it break?.. Let the time tell us.
ideas here are for education and training, not a trading advice. Trade at your own risk
Tesla’s China-Made EV Sales Rise Amid Strong CompetitionTesla Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) continues to make significant strides in China, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) market. According to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), sales of Tesla’s China-made EVs rose 3% year-over-year in August. Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y surged by 17% from July, driven by Tesla’s aggressive strategies to attract local buyers. As the company expands its influence, a closer look at both the fundamental and technical aspects of Tesla’s stock reveals an intriguing narrative for investors.
Rising Sales Amid Fierce Competition
Tesla’s growth in China is particularly impressive given the fierce competition it faces from domestic EV makers like BYD, Leapmotor, and Li Auto. BYD, Tesla’s biggest rival in China, reported a staggering 35.3% year-over-year increase in sales, reaching a record high of 370,854 units in August. Despite this, Tesla’s consistent performance indicates that it is holding its own, thanks to several strategic moves:
1. Extended Incentives and Financing Options: Tesla has been offering zero-interest loans of up to five years since April, catering to cautious buyers amid a sluggish economy. This strategy has proven effective, especially in smaller cities, where Tesla saw a 78% year-on-year increase in deliveries in tier-three cities and a 47% rise in second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Nanjing.
2. Government Endorsement: Tesla has gained significant government backing, with several local authorities recently approving Tesla models for official car purchases. This endorsement helps Tesla penetrate segments of the market previously closed off due to regulatory restrictions, boosting both its sales and brand credibility.
3. Expanding Product Line: Looking to keep its offerings fresh, Tesla plans to produce a new six-seat Model Y in China starting in late 2025. This move is seen as an effort to appeal to family-oriented buyers and differentiate Tesla from other competitors in the market.
Despite a global downsizing of its sales force, Tesla’s China operations have maintained strong sales momentum, thanks to these strategic adjustments. Analysts project that if the current trend continues, Tesla could hit a record quarterly sales volume in China for Q3 2024.
Navigating a Mixed Market Environment
Tesla’s stock has shown a mixed performance recently, with technical indicators presenting both opportunities and cautionary signals for traders:
1. Price Action and Chart Patterns: Tesla’s stock was up 3% in Friday’s extended trading session but dipped 0.18% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern, a positive signal suggesting that buyers are stepping in at current levels. This pattern, coupled with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 50.21, indicates a potential uptrend in the near term. If the RSI dips to 40, near the one-month low pivot of $183, a rebound could be expected.
2. Support and Resistance Levels: Tesla’s stock is poised to hold its current levels, with analysts maintaining a “Hold” rating on the stock. Key support lies around $183, while resistance levels hover near $200, indicating that Tesla could be gearing up for a potential breakout if buying pressure increases.
3. Investor Sentiment and Volume: Trading volume and investor influx are critical factors. A surge in these could further propel the stock upward. With the introduction of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature in China expected by year-end, sentiment could turn increasingly positive, leading to higher trading volumes and bolstered prices.
Outlook: A Balanced Perspective
Tesla’s ongoing success in China and strategic initiatives point to a promising future, but investors should also be mindful of the broader market conditions. With high competition, economic pressures, and evolving consumer preferences, Tesla’s path forward in China will be closely watched. Technically, the stock shows signs of resilience, but maintaining its trajectory will depend on continued strong sales performance, positive regulatory developments, and the successful execution of new product rollouts.
For traders, Tesla offers a balanced risk-reward profile at current levels. The fundamentals provide a strong backdrop, while the technicals suggest that the stock is at a critical juncture. Whether you’re looking to hold for the long term or capitalize on short-term price movements, Tesla remains a key player in the evolving EV landscape. As always, keep an eye on macroeconomic trends and market signals to navigate this dynamic market.
Tesla Sues Matthews Over EV Battery Trade SecretsTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has taken legal action against its former supplier, Matthews International, in a California federal court for allegedly stealing trade secrets related to Tesla's battery-manufacturing process and sharing them with Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) competitors. The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, claims that Matthews owes damages exceeding $1 billion for misusing Tesla's trade secrets concerning dry electrode battery manufacturing technology.
Matthews, a Pittsburgh-based company that started supplying manufacturing machinery to Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) in 2019, allegedly shared Tesla's innovations related to dry-electrode coating with unnamed competitors. This technology is crucial for reducing the size, cost, energy consumption, and production cycle time of battery manufacturing plants, while enhancing the energy density and power of battery cells.
According to the lawsuit, Matthews not only shared Tesla's trade secrets but also claimed Tesla's inventions as its own in patent filings, revealing confidential Tesla information. Tesla is seeking the court's intervention to prevent Matthews from further misusing its trade secrets, compel Matthews to surrender its patent applications, and claim monetary damages.
As of now, representatives from Matthews and attorneys and spokespeople from Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) have not responded to requests for comments on this matter.
Technical Outlook
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock is up 4.48% in Monday's market trading with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58.34 which is poised for further gains and if Tesla Inc. should win the case against Matthews we should expect price impact.
Tesla Stock Plummet On China's Production CutTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has reduced production at its Shanghai factory amid slowing EV demand in the world's largest auto market. The move to cut production in China also comes as the global EV giant is heading towards a likely first-quarter delivery miss and has announced vehicle prices will begin to increase.
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is reducing production at the China plant to five days a week. The output cuts started earlier in March and could continue through April, Bloomberg reported Friday.
The action comes amid slowing EV growth in China and with Tesla's Shanghai facility already not producing at full capacity. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) observers have repeatedly said in recent weeks that global inventory appears high.
This week, local media reported Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) will slightly raise China list prices on Model Y vehicles starting on April 1, following similar plans in the U.S. and Europe. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is also offering discounts between $1,000-$1,500 in China on inventory Model Y vehicles. Inventory discounts are more significant in the U.S. and Europe.
First-Quarter Deliveries Below Expectations
The global EV company ended 2023 on a high in China. However, the EV dynamic in China has changed early in 2024. Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has also said China's EV companies are Tesla's main competition — with BYD (BYDDF), Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI) and others all making inroads in the EV market.
Tesla China delivered 60,365 in February, down around 19% compared to last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Chinese New Year ran for two weeks in February, from Feb. 10-Feb. 24. Tesla deliveries of China-made vehicles in January and February totaled 131,812, down 6% compared to 2023.
Cutting Shanghai production would be further confirmation of weakening demand not only in China, but in Europe and other key markets. Shanghai exports to Europe have waned over the past several months, while the Tesla Berlin factory is running well below capacity.
Meanwhile, with the first quarter ending soon, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) appears to be heading for a delivery miss. Wall Street consensus currently still has Q1 deliveries of 481,000 units, according to FactSet, but many analysts have cut predictions in recent days. Tesla is expected to report Q1 deliveries in early April.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares fell 3.3% to 167.14 during market action Friday. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) shares has a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38.26 indicating selling pressure.
Last week, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock dropped 6.7% to 163.57, hitting new 2024 lows and levels not seen since May 2023. NASDAQ:TSLA is down more than 14% in March and the biggest loser on the S&P 500 index so far in 2024.
UBS last week cut its Tesla stock price target to 165, from 225, and maintained a neutral rating on the shares. UBS lowered its Q1 delivery forecast to 432,000 units, from its previous 466,000 view. The firm also cut full-year deliveries to 1.96 million units, from 2.02 million previously.
With 2023 in retrospect, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings below 2023's level. That signals another year of earnings declines for this growth stock. Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.96 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be around a 5% decline vs. last year's $3.12.
Tesla - Out of Battery 🔋-Tesla is not just another automaker and has several distinctive factors that will make it a global leader over the long term.
-Its strong growth will last several more years and the company should be viewed as an early-stage growth company at least until 2025/26.
-This implies a lower multiple and compared to its current valuation, the upside in the next 5 years is not great right now.
-Its current market capitalization is about $550 billion, dwarfing the value of any other carmaker globally by this measure.
-Despite the fact that Tesla still has some advantages over its peers, this position is poised to change in the next 3-5 years, given that due to its own success Tesla’s business model is being rapidly copied by both legacy carmakers and new startups. For instance, this can be seen by XPeng’s (XPEV) business model in China that is clearly inspired by Tesla, or Volkswagen’s (OTCPK: VWAGY) plans to develop a recharging network in the U.S., Europe, and China over the coming years. Moreover, regarding autonomous driving, Tesla is probably nowadays the most advanced company in this field, but XPeng has achieved good progress in China, and technology companies such as Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) are also investing in this technology and therefore it doesn’t think that Full Self-Driving (FSD) will be a competitive advantage for Tesla over the long-term.
-Furthermore, most likely, Tesla will be only able to monetize its investments in FSD through selling its own cars, which means that customers have to choose FSD as an option, while other carmakers are most likely to choose technology from a company like Intel than from a direct competitor. This means that automakers that are currently behind in the development of autonomous driving capabilities, such as Stellantis (STLA) for example, will be reluctant to finance a direct competitor and may decide to choose Mobileye’s technology, or any other that may enter the marketplace, even if it may be inferior to Tesla’s FSD.
-Taking this background into account, batteries may be the only area where Tesla can develop a competitive advantage over competitors in the long-term, which may be key to become one of the largest automakers in the world. Tesla is investing significantly in the development of batteries and wants to include them in the car’s structure in the coming years, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency.
-According to IEA, sales of EV’s amounted to about 3.2 million units in 2020 and about 4.6 million units when considering also plug-in hybrid vehicles, an increase of almost 50% from the previous year, with China and Europe being the regions that represented the vast majority of EV sales last year. The market share of EVs was still quite low, at only 4.4% of global car sales, but is increasing quite rapidly (it was only 2.5% in 2019 and near zero in 2010) and this trend is only expected to accelerate in the next decade.
-Indeed, global sales projections for the next years is for compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 30%, with IEA projecting sales of 14 million EV units by 2025 and 25 million in 2030, representing a market share of around 22% and 39% respectively, assuming a flat global auto market during this period.
-Tesla delivered close to 500,000 units during 2020, thus despite its leadership position from a technological point of view in the EV industry, its global market share was only about 16%. This is explained by the fact that Tesla has a very large market share in the U.S., being the leading EV manufacturer by far, but in Europe and China, its market share is much lower. This is important because these two regions are ahead in the adoption of EVs and competition is stronger than in the U.S., showing that even in its domestic market Tesla is not expected to be dominant in the future.
-Tesla’s annual production capacity is currently about 1 million cars and with the two new factories, this may well double. Moreover, Tesla may also expand its factories in the future if needed, thus the company’s annual production capacity should not constrain its growth path at least for the next 3-4 years.
-Tesla delivered nearly 500,000 vehicles (from 367,000 in 2019), which was the main reason why its revenues increased by 28% YoY to $31 billion. The automotive gross margin was 25.6%, a much higher level than in 2019 (21.2%), showing that Tesla has been able to achieve economies of scale with increased production and has reduced costs by producing in China.
-Its net income was positive for the first year, based on GAAP, reaching $732 million and its free cash flow was nearly $2 billion, which is a very good achievement for an early-stage growth company like Tesla. Its capex more than doubled from the previous year to $3.1 billion, as the company is investing significantly in its future growth by building new factories.
-In Q1 2021, total revenues amounted to $10.4 billion, up by 74% YoY, and its gross profit increased to $2.2 billion (+79% YoY). Its net income was $438 million, compared to just $16 million in Q1 2020. From a financial standpoint, this quarter was somewhat messy as the company invested in bitcoin and had a $101 million positive impact, making differences with previous quarters less comparable.
Conclusion:
-Tesla is currently trading at an enterprise value multiple of about 11x based on its expected 2021 revenues, hardly a bargain!
-Indeed, its business profile is more similar to Apple for instance, given that both businesses have a strong brand in the consumer market and are based on both hardware (cars and the iPhone) and software (FSD and the App store). Apple is a well-established company that is still growing at very good levels, possibly giving some perspective about Tesla’s valuation in a few years.
-Tesla will only be considered a more mature company by 2025/26, when its revenue growth will start to decline to more ‘normal’ levels. Tesla is expected to have revenues of about $114 billion by 2025, according to analysts’ estimates, and I assume that Tesla’s EV/sales multiple will decline gradually to a level more similar to other mega cap companies, such as Apple.
-This means that a more reasonable EV/revenue multiple in 5 years from now will be about 5-6x annual revenues, which imply an enterprise value of around $630 billion at the middle of the range. Given that Tesla’s current enterprise value is about $560 billion, much of its future growth seems to be priced-in at its current share price, which is not exactly surprising considering the fantastic run it had over the past year.
Credits: Seeking Alpha
Our Opinion: We keep our target @ 380.
Tesla: Could Crash This Year to 205-210 Then DecayTesla has been a momentum stock that has completely been derailed from any sort of normalcy, fundamentals and even technicals. This is a stock that has now formed an "Ascending 3-Point Parabola" which is very common in bubbles and precedes the impending "bursted" bubble scenario.
BlackBerry had this scenario in its prime to the 100s....So did Bitcoin to 18k....And so did many stocks in the 90s like Apple. People won't want to believe it, but algorithms don't operate on the "feelings" of people.
The split-share increased liquidity and diluted shareholders and this will likely be a trigger for algo bots to sell the stock. I believe the "new price" 502 in Tesla will act as the ATH for a number of years and that the stock will likely crash to just over $200 this year before eventually decaying to 100 or less several months later based on an eventual dis-interest amongst retail traders, reduced media coverage and likely reduced earnings estimates. Furthermore, the fact Tesla failed to get into the SPX could be yet another significant reason for the stock's current ATH to act as "the" ATH.
Trade the stock at your own risk but I see an eventual generational buying opportunity in Tesla below $100 similar to the generational buying opportunity when Apple formed an ABC parabola in the 90s and eventually burst (before its big run this decade).
I know this post will make all the Tesla cult-lovers angry but Tesla's stock rise has nothing to do with its "innovation" and its "future potential".
- zSplit
TESLA: Earnings Expectancy is Postive + Covid19 Vaccine?Tesla (as I stated prior), seems to be a gift that keeps on giving. Elon Musk is meeting production quotas for Tesla, and now Tesla is even working on being manufacturing partners for Covid19 Vaccine drug makers. This may potentially be a first step into upgrading Tesla into either a large holding company or industrial conglomerate. Either way, it is definitely good news and reasons to be quite bullish on the future of the automaker (who now has alot of brand equity value as well). I am upgrading my level 2 target to be $1.5k by September. As always, this is on an opinion based basis and not meant to be taken as actionable financial advice. Pursue at your own risk.
Tesla: The bottom is in. Fundamentals look solid tooTesla stock technical analysis:
As you can see from the chart outlined above, Tesla stock seems to be on a very strong support line which used to be a previous resistance.
We're now currently hovering around the support area of $260-ish. Tesla fundamentals also look quite strong as it's operating at a profit, China factory is on the way and its Battery business looks quite solid as well.
Definitely a buy for me.
*disclaimer: I am long Tesla, ticker symbol TSLA
TESLA How further can it drop??Tesla (TSLA) has clearly overachieved since our previous buy signal (August 15 2024, see chart below), surpassing our $380 Target:
The last 3 weeks though has seen overdue weakness on the price action, which was delayed due to the U.S. elections aftermath. The deliveries miss is pulling the price back towards its fair value region and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the October 23 2024 bullish break-out.
Tesla has been trading inside a Parabolic Channel for almost a year (since February 2024) and the level that has marked the strongest buy opportunities recently has been the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Every contact on that level since the August 05 2024 Low, has been a solid buy entry.
Parallel to the 1D MA100 contacts, the 1D RSI tends to test its own Support Zone, whose bottoms are aligned and is an additional buy signal.
With regards to corrections within this Parabolic Channel, the two major ones have both been -32.65%, an amazing display of symmetry. If the current pull-back also follows that pattern and evolves into another -32.65% Bearish Leg, then it might make contact with the 1D MA100 around the $330 level. Unless the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone earlier, that is technically a fair value for Tesla in our opinion, where heavy buying may commence again.
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TESLA Have today's upbeat earnings erased the Robotaxi disaster?Tesla (TSLA) reported yesterday third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and said it expects to achieve "slight" growth in deliveries this year. This was enough to send the price in an after-market frenzy and so far in-session rising almost by +20%.
In fact, Tesla's market cap has increased by $126B today, the largest single day jump ever! Those earnings may prove to be pivotal for the automaker as they come just a few days after the Robotaxi event, which the market considered disappointing.
So can those earnings result be enough to reverse Tesla's fortunes, which has been massively underperforming relative to (particularly) the rest of the Magnificent 7? Well this can be answered through a technical perspective, with a chart that we published more than 2 months ago (August 15, see chart below):
That was Tesla's Channel Up since the January 06 2023 market bottom on the 1W time-frame, where we caught a buy just after the August 2024 Low. We projected that to be halfway through the new long-term Bullish Leg of the Channel. The recent October correction can be viewed as the April 24 2023 2nd wave of the mid-term pull-back of the Bullish Leg.
On the current analysis we view the same pattern but on the 1D time-frame, where the 1D MACD in particular excels at illustrating the identical nature of the two Bullish Legs price actions.
Right now the MACD is forming the 2nd clean Bullish Cross under the Lower Highs belt, a formation which on May 04 2023 turned out to be the confirmation that started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg that completed a +195% rise from the January 2023 bottom.
As a result, not only do we expect the stock to reach Resistance 1 (299.50), which is the July 19 2023 High before the year ends but also test Resistance 2 (385.00), which is the April 05 2022 High by January 2025.
Our Target long-term remains a straight up $380.00 as we pointed out those months back.
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