Semiconductors
DNEX Techincal AnalysisMany gurus & group have already done their analysis on the future prospects of the company so let's talk about the technical part of the share movement of the company for the past 8 months.
From 0.20 to highest 1.05 in just 2 months with return of approx 450% during early of the year 2021, I believe many investors and traders have benefited from the drastic share movement of the company especially from the company warrant WD. Sky rocketing of a company share price in short period usually will draw market attention hence triggered profit taking from investors and traders. This is not the case similar to Genetec company with share volume of only 52m made easier to push the company share price. Dnex is a extremely heavy on its share volume of 3,090m especially after conversion of the company warrants and Private Placement. Hence, the company share price needs time to digest after shooting 450% in just 2 months.
I've seen many groups and gurus keep shouting on this company recently in telegram with their analysis of breakout from the triangle chart pattern (although I expect them to do thorough and meaningful chart analysis instead of just saying breakout from triangle chart pattern as I think most traders also know how to see lol). I don't know they are real investors or just want to speculate on this counter since the company share volume is real heavy but hopefully the market will soon treat it as a company with fundamental but not penny stock.
For the past 8 months, the share movement have went through 5 contractions/sell-down and every contraction kept narrowed as follow (refer to chart as well):
-39.41% in 56 days
-29.56% in 27 days
-17.73% in 22 days
-12.84% in 12 days
-6.14% in 4 days
The figures shown above are showing diminishing supply characteristics with decreasing volatility (refer to volume based on 20 MA showing downtrend line since March 2021) and it fulfill the characteristics of Volatility Contraction Pattern or VCP.
Characteristics of VPC
1.) Strong Underlying Demand;
2.) Overbought comes with Strong Selling Pressure; (Demand < Supply)
3.) Diminishing Supply Characteristics;
4.) Decreasing Volatility;
5.) Explosive Breakout (Demand > Supply)
Also to notice the chart pattern kept forming higher low and also with lower high but recent chart pattern seems want to form higher high which is a good signal for the share movement.
Nobody will know how's the share price movement in future but in order to in tact with the ideal chart pattern, the share price must be supported at 0.82 & 0.80. VCP is a very common theory in share market and everyone in share market also knows it. Most of the time the movement of a share price will not follow exactly the theory (sometimes the chart pattern too perfect I will scare also haha) we learnt so do your risk management before enter a trade but hopefully it will works this time (been tortured for so many times in counter as an investor haha).
LG Display is Looking UndervaluedFundementals:
P/E ratio at 3.5
OLED Sales gonna be higher since the holiday season
LCD Prices remain high
LG beat Q3 expectations
OLED growth going to be lucrative as LG position itself as the leader.
Technicals:
14day MA cross 50 Day MA
Bullish Reversal Pattern Formation
Major Support level on INTEL | What we want to seeBased on the current global chip shortage. There are 3 companies worth paying attention to TSMC - INTEL - SAMSUNG. The 3 of them are heavily investing in increasing their production capability to finish these shortages affecting key industries across the globe.
Today, we will analyze INTEL from a technical perspective:
-The main thing that we can observe on the chart is a MAJOR support zone. That's a key level to pay attention to. Why? Because since 2018 has been working as a key bouncing level
-That's why we want to observe contact there before thinking about any bullish setup. This is a good filter to avoid engaging in situations that are not 100% in our favor based on historical behavior
-IF we observe contact, we want to see a breakout of the descending trendline followed by a correction similar to the 3 scenarios that happened before.
-Our Target for this future movement is 57.00
What's the whole point of these types of analyses that are not "close to happening"?
If we do this regularly, we reach a moment where 3 to 4 times a month, we have premium situations working as expected, and we can develop high-quality setups on these charts that we get ready with months in advance.
If I have to define my edge on the markets, it would be: Patience + Being ready in advance as much as possible.
Thanks for reading!
$QCOM | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/1 Didn't have time to do a full Elliot Wave Theory analysis on this one, I apologize for that. However, very clear supply/demand zones labeled, while trading within a wedge. Extremely attractive bullish inverse head & shoulders shown on the chart, looking to potentially confirm and breakout early in the week.
The only thing holding me back from this is the fact that Qualcomm reports earnings on November 3rd. Setup is extremely good on this one, so I may make an exception and possibly day trade this one before earnings. Not looking to swing until after earnings is reported.
$AMD | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/1Looking like a potential local top may be in here with a pretty convincing reversal daily candle. Expecting quite a bit of choppiness for the next few weeks/month to retrace and build a base for a fifth wave higher towards my $138 target. Patience will be key on this to wait for the right setup to present itself. Worth keeping on your radar if the retracement happens quicker than anticipated.
AMD semiconductor beastAMD has been unstoppable over the last few years, and this last shake out of the market has been a testament to its momentum.
Perfect bull flag break out running to ATH and now looking for the cup and handle style break out in trend which often follows months long bull trend.
The market is set up well and my next targets for taking profit is around 133 and 145 over coming months.
AMAT go ZOOOOOMAMAT is bound for a strong impulsive move
✅ Phase 1: a harsh pullback
✅ Phase 2: a period of consolidation
✅ Phase 3 : an impulsive move to the 0.61 line of the pullback move
❌ Phase 4: another consolidation perdiod: Skipped
✅ Phase 5: a drop to the 0.38 line of the fib retracement
🤩 Phase 6: Back to the top we go
In wait to gainWe have been watching this action for a long time. Everything is fundamentally positive for it. The semiconductor crisis is good for it. The products are in demand.
Technically it will soon be possible to look for a long position. I recommend to look to buy when it gets above the 69 level. Further growth to $100 per paper. (43% Upside).
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QCOM probably good for at least a short-term swingWith today's weak inflation data, treasury yields are falling, which should be at least short-term bullish for tech. Qualcomm has an additional news catalyst from yesterday's announcement that they authorized a $10 B buyback plan. Qualcomm looks to be exiting oversold territory on the daily RSI. It's just under 15 forward P/E right now, with PEG under 0.5 and dividend yield at 2.2%. We may get some positive analyst coverage over the next week as an upside catalyst. I took a gamble on October 22 calls at the 128 strike.
$NVDA: Scoop There It Is ⤴️Recent political environments regarding Taiwan Semiconductors have highlighted the world's economy's need to wain from the dominance of TSM in the semiconductor manufacturing process, I think a great deal of money is going to come into NVDA both private and government as the US seeks to retain harmony with political rivals. This could greatly benefit Nivida's market cap, the stock has also shown how effectively it can move in massive cycle's so timing a perfect entry could be difficult through this range, but try scaling in and keeping your cost basis as low as you can.
QCOM | In a major support zone | Possible paths to expectToday, we will take a look at QCOM
The price is currently against a major support zone that has been working effectively since October 2020. Let see what we can expect in case of bearish or bullish resolutions.
This analysis is meant for people that develop short-term setups. Why am I saying this? because, at the moment, we can't think about new trends like the one from March 2020 until January 2021. To start thinking about something like that, I want to see a breakout of the current structure, at least. Alright, with all that said, let's start.
BULLISH scenario: If the price effectively bounced on the support zone, a propper invalidation zone for it would be 120 (there, we will start thinking that the level was absolutely broken)The target we will use for this idea is the white descending trend 142.00. There we will be open to rejections.
BEARISH scenario: If the price is able to break the support zone reaching a price of 117.00, we will expect a pullback towards the broken support level. IF that happens, a new low on that pullback would confirm the bearish movements with a target on 100
Thanks for reading!
AMD flag formationThe US markets have taken a beating over the last few weeks but as sellers start to reside we could see some short term recoveries across the market on some strong players.
Im watching AMD closely with this flag formation, not ruling out a drop back further yet before a bounce but the market structure is set for a continuation
Fib levels from the last bullish rally are being respected so targeting the 1.272 extension of around 130+ over coming months
Broadcom Makes a Higher LowSemiconductor stocks have struggled along with the broader market, but a few have managed to outperform. One of them is Broadcom.
The most interesting feature on AVGO’s chart is the series of higher lows, including Monday’s dip under $475. In contrast, the Nasdaq-100 made a lower low versus August.
Next, the bounce is occurring at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). That line has provided support since the beginning of June.
Third, stochastic recently dipped to an oversold condition.
Given the forward calendar, with earnings over the next few weeks, traders may view this an interesting moment for a stock showing signs of resuming its longer-term uptrend.
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SOXX 1 year trendSemiconductors/chips continue to be an essential part of everything around the globe.
For a year, we have maintained an upward trend, which is being tested today.
There are clear outperformers in the industry, but it is clearly been working for all of them as a whole.
When we have touched the trend line in the past, we have had a 50 point gain, which has happened through 2 weeks approximately. That gives us a target of around $505.
#TSM mid term AnalysisAs we all know TSM has amazing fundamentals, incredible advantages in their business model and benefitial political terms inside their country, right now their competitors are not close enough to compete with them at full scale. So we are not going to argue about value for this company. Not all day we have infront of us a company that represents value for half of the world chips manufacturer market.
since the July spike the price of #TSM has been trading at a side chanel from 108 usd to 125 usd, in case of a breaking of the 125 resistance at the edge of the accumulation channel, we can expect the price to travel smoothly to a) level target and so on, but in case of breaking the 108 support level we may see bears will take control to the oranges mark supports.
As expected due the economic enviroment right now, lets expect a lot of volatility but thats ok, dont forget you are sitting on a value stock, the stop loss is stretched due volatility.
$AMD and end of September Semiconductors...Here are some zones to ponder for NASDAQ:AMD next week. I have some larger bear and bull scenarios, but this is my little short term sliver of FRIDAY NIGHT FORESHADOWING.
Bullish in the blue, bearish in the red. Beware fakeouts!
Get on board, buddies!!!
-- patrick
More Upside in Advanced Micro?Advanced Micro Devices rallied hard on strong results in late July. Now almost two months later, the chip stock may be ready for another move.
Notice the slow and lazy pullback since early August, which resolved with a quick test under $100 on Monday. AMD came within $0.28 of its previous peak from January 11. That might be close enough to say old resistance is new support.
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has steadily risen and price is now bouncing at it.
Third, stochastics have dipped into oversold territory.
Finally, Bollinger Band Width is back toward the lower end of its typical range. That, combined with the successful retest of old highs, may suggest price action is ready to start expanding again.
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AMD position update. Boxes holding upHi everyone!
Today I am posting an update of my NASDAQ:AMD stock analysis and position.
I first provided my analysis on the stock mid August together with my boxes strategy tutorial. It is linked below.
Now let us see how it holds up.
Demand level of the higher box at 104 has proven to be a decend support.
We broke out of the box to the downside during a market-wide correction on Sep 20.
AND not surprisingly the price bounced off of 99 level, which is a bigger box supply zone turned into a support.
My outlook has not changed .
Still consider NASDAQ:AMD a great long-term investment.
I have added to my long position at 100.
Trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise.