SPX 1D 200 EMA Retest? As the 9&21W EMAs cross and a new local low printing after a SFP top, could the S&P500 be getting its first major correction since Jan 2022?
From a TA standpoint this kind of setup looks to be high probability with good R:R for the bears. Targeting the 1W 200 EMA is the most logical area as it remains major support and whenever tested holds strong.
From a bulls standpoint this is worrying but could be rectified with a reclaim of the 9&21 EMAs preventing a "death cross" from there acceptance above the high would be the next step to maintain the rally.
Fundamentals play a major role and the geopolitical world shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps the tariffs angle is introducing uncertainty in American companies? Or the index is just exhausted from 2.5 years of climbing? Either way the chart is an interesting one to monitor for now.
Short-long
Bitcoin's Next Move: Accumulation or Breakdown?The Market at a Tipping Point – What's Next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $80,594, sitting 26.7% below its all-time high of $109,951 reached just over a month ago. The market is showing signs of uncertainty—traders are caught between a potential accumulation phase and a looming correction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing 38.2, creeping towards oversold territory, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) at 28.2 suggests that liquidity is drying up. With MA50 at 84,015 and MA200 at 92,048, BTC remains below key moving averages, signaling bearish momentum in the short term. But is this really a time to sell—or could this be a golden accumulation zone before the next leg up?
Recent VSA Buy Patterns indicate that smart money could be positioning for an upward move. However, resistance at $84,686 looms overhead, a level that must be reclaimed before bulls can take control. On the flip side, failure to hold above $76,701 support could open the floodgates to lower levels.
So, what’s the verdict? Breakout or breakdown—who’s ready for the next move?
Bitcoin's Price Roadmap: Tracking the Smart Money Moves
The market never lies, but it sure knows how to fake out the crowd. Let's break down the most recent Bitcoin (BTC) price action through the lens of high-impact VSA patterns and volume dynamics, separating the noise from the real moves.
Phase 1: The Sell-Off – Smart Money Setting the Trap?
2025-02-26 18:00 UTC – Sell Volumes Max kicks in, sending BTC downward from $86,002 to $84,112, a clear indication that the big players were offloading before the next major move.
2025-02-28 01:00 UTC – Confirmation: Another Sell Volumes pattern emerges, pushing BTC lower to $81,613. The downward momentum is undeniable. Bears are in control.
Phase 2: A Reversal or a Trap?
2025-02-28 08:00 UTC – VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st emerges at $79,176, signaling an accumulation phase. The structure suggests a comeback, but we need validation.
2025-02-28 06:00 UTC – VSA Buy Pattern Extra 2nd confirms the recovery as BTC moves up from $79,953 to $80,392, bouncing off key liquidity zones.
Phase 3: Where Are We Now?
Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $80K+ and sustain above the $78K liquidity zone suggests that the market might be done with the shakeout. However, true confirmation lies in breaking $84,686 resistance before bulls can run the show.
The MFI at 28.2 still signals low liquidity, meaning bulls need fresh momentum to confirm a sustainable move.
Key Takeaway: The Next Play
If BTC holds above $80K, watch for a move toward $84K+. If volume dries up, expect another flush before the real pump begins. Either way, the big money has already placed their bets—are you ready?
Technical & Price Action Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
When it comes to Bitcoin, levels are everything—play them right, and you’re in the game. Miss them, and you’re catching knives. Here’s what’s on the board:
📍 Resistance Levels – Where the Heat Is
$84,686 – First roadblock, and where sellers could step in hard.
$92,058.5 – If BTC rips past 84K, this is the next stop.
$94,036.1 – Mid-level supply zone; needs a breakout confirmation.
$96,271.2 – Psychological barrier before the big leagues.
$100,796.4 – The last line before full-on euphoria.
🛠️ Support Levels – Where the Bounces Happen
$76,701.7 – If bulls want a second chance, they gotta hold this.
$67,838.7 – Break this, and we’re talking deeper retrace.
$60,295.6 – Final line of defense before things get ugly.
$47,122.4 – Buyers better show up here.
$28,696.9 – Let’s not even talk about this one…
🚀 Powerful Levels – The True Battlegrounds
Support: $96,262.6 – Bulls want this level back, or it flips to resistance.
Resistance: $76,701.7 – If price reclaims this, expect fireworks.
⚠️ If these levels don’t hold, they flip to resistance. That’s how the market works—fail to bounce, and these same zones become walls for the next run-up. Stay sharp, play the levels, and let the market show its hand.
Trading Strategies Using Fibonacci Rays: Optimistic & Pessimistic Scenarios
The VSA Fibonacci Rays are already on your chart—your job is to watch for price interactions and react accordingly. These dynamic levels are based on the natural flow of price action, not rigid static points. When price meets a ray, it signals either a reversal or continuation, but only after confirmation from volume dynamics and moving averages.
🚀 Optimistic Scenario: Bulls Take Control
If Bitcoin reclaims key resistances and confirms strength via moving averages, we’re looking at a trend continuation.
Long Entry: $80,594 (current market level)
First Target: $84,686 (First resistance break confirms strength)
Second Target: $92,058 (MA200 alignment, momentum builds)
Final Target: $96,271 (Extended breakout zone)
Trigger: A clean bounce from Fibonacci Ray support with rising buy volume. Confirmation via RSI moving above 50 and MA50 flipping upward.
🔻 Pessimistic Scenario: Bears Keep the Pressure
If Bitcoin fails to hold above $76,701, we’re entering a corrective phase with further downside possible.
Short Entry: $76,700 (Break below key support)
First Target: $67,838 (Next liquidity grab zone)
Second Target: $60,295 (Stronger demand area)
Final Target: $47,122 (Capitulation scenario, extreme bear case)
Trigger: A rejection at $80,000–$81,000 on weak volume + failure to reclaim MA50 resistance. Confirmation via RSI below 40 and a bearish cross on MA100 & MA200.
🎯 Key Takeaways for Trade Execution
Always wait for price interaction with a Fibonacci Ray before entering.
Trades run from ray to ray—first target is always the next ray in the sequence.
A bounce from support rays = long setup. A failure to reclaim resistance rays = short setup.
MA50 & MA200 act as trend confirmations—price above is bullish, below is bearish.
Bottom line: The market won’t move in straight lines, but rays act as dynamic waypoints, guiding price through the chaos. Position accordingly.
Got questions? Want to discuss levels, setups, or how to use these insights in your trading? Drop your thoughts in the comments! I read everything and do my best to respond.
If this analysis was useful, hit Boost and save this post—check back later to see how price respects the mapped-out structure. Trading is all about understanding reaction points, and this roadmap lays them out for you.
I use a private indicator that automatically plots Fibonacci rays and key levels—if you’re interested in accessing it, shoot me a message.
Need a breakdown on a specific asset? I can chart it for you. Some analyses I share publicly, while others can be done privately depending on what you need. If you want a custom markup, let me know—we’ll figure out the best way to make it happen.
These rays work across all assets—crypto, forex, stocks, you name it. If there’s a ticker you want analyzed, hit Boost and comment below, and I’ll include it in my upcoming posts.
And if you haven’t yet—follow me on TradingView to stay ahead of the market. Let’s trade smart. 🚀
My Current View On The 1hr With No ReasonI like what I have and I even sell what I have! 😮 I like dollars maybe I am just some American that thinks in dollars in my wallet..🤑.. Its all fun and Games Until you start losing your bag.💰..
"Count the coin not the dollars" I say to myself while listening knowing well I am my worst enemy. 🎶
In this market cycle it is out to bite you! Anything given will quickly look to take it back including you.. Nothing is a given be ready to fight and beg for what you hold back be it coins or dollars.....
"One coin to rule them all until there is wait two or three... Oh wait there's another one!!!"
YOLO Moonboyz 🌛 If you feel so inclined to do so.
🚽👄 Toilet Mouth: "Why do all your post say Short!?" or a bunch of "BUT, BUT, BUT"
⭐Not my job to tell you to buy or sell entries matter to most I only care about my exits.
⭐Let each person determine their cost to acquire and choice to play or not.
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
Things 🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK!
🙏FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK & BALANCE your Senses!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈
You have been warned by The Coin SLayer!
P.S. Now witha bag!
P.S.S. well two or Ten
What Pattern Is This?Asking for a Technical Trader umm What Pattern Are WE Trading LOL
When In Doubt call me crazy "STAY OUT" or just hold I think we will see many more times like these remember nothings ever simply one way and the world you know can change into the one you have yet to know.
YOLO Moonboyz 🌛 If you feel so inclined to do so.
🚽👄 Toilet Mouth: "Why do all your post say Short!?" or a bunch of "BUT, BUT, BUT"
⭐Not my job to tell you to buy or sell entries matter to most I only care about my exits.
⭐Let each person determine their cost to acquire and choice to play or not.
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
Things 🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK!
🙏 FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK & BALANCE your Senses!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈
You have been warned by The Coin SLayer!
Bitcoin (BTC) +SHORT after a possible slight move upI anticipate BTC to possibly move up just a bit towards or in the lower $100k to take the first position, and even if it somehow manages to take out the previous high, that would be a liquidation spot for me to add a second position shorting it down into the late and early $80ks
Daily/Weekly Chart
$REAX: The Moment of Truth - Ready for a Skyrocket or a Crash?NASDAQ:REAX : The Moment of Truth - Ready for a Skyrocket or a Crash? 📉🚀
🚨 A make or break moment here, friends! 🚨
Good:
At strong cup-and-handle retest area (Strong Support Zone) 💪 *Measured Move for cup-and-handle breakout hasn't been realized yet
Falling wedge pattern into support 📈
Bad:
Off the volume shelf and in the volume gap ⚠️
Red H5 Indicator 📉
Short Williams CB formed and thriving
🚀 Going to $8.20 or sub $4 🚀
Not financial advice.
WHAT IS QM (SIMPLY)Quasimodo trading setup or QM is an advanced reversal pattern in which its formation signals the end of a trend, and most traders use its variants to improve trading results in the forex market.
If u don't understand it, there is high possibility for stop hunting.
u may heard HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern, yes?
QM is exactly HAD (head and shoulder) and u can trade it at: FL'S _ S&D ZONES and SR lines.
it is also a Great show for money back and u can short it at all.
What invalidates it?
only Do not ENG the first support.
But A.I. Is The Future!? "But A.I. Is The Future!?" He said while I ignored the excitement happily setting up my short yesterday at $28... In truth I am The CoinSlayer and I haven't shorted much lately well here was one. It was really fun.
Also something cant give me money forever perhaps we climb back up call it a trews???
"One coin to rule them all until there is wait two or three... Oh wait there's another one!!!"
YOLO Moonboyz 🌛 If you feel so inclined to do so.
🚽👄Toilet Mouth: " Why do all your post say Short!?" or a bunch of "BUT, BUT, BUT"
⭐Not my job to tell you to buy or sell entries matter to most I only care about my exits.
⭐Let each person determine their cost to acquire and choice to play or not.
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
Things 🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK!
🙏FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK & BALANCE your Senses!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈
You have been warned by The Coin SLayer!
P.S. Now witha bag!
P.S.S. well two or Ten
Trade BoxI have decided to start providing my signals in the futures market, so this will be the last trading box model I draw. Starting tomorrow, I’ll share futures signals that I believe can yield good profits with reasonable leverage on gold and crypto markets. If you need, let me know the name of the cryptocurrency so we can focus on it for a week. From tomorrow, we’ll begin trading on gold.
Possible Top for BTC/ETHI can see a possible top on the BTC vs ETH chart. It has clearly gone up alot and if you combine that with the divergence on the RSI + BTC Dominance about to fall the possibility for this to happen gets stronger!
This means that Ethereum is about to go for a run and if that happens alot of projects based on ETH will have a big rally.
GBPUSD Short and Longs (News) Scenario 1: Both PMIs Better than Forecast
Actual Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (Better than 48.8 forecast)
Actual Services PMI: 56.0 (Better than 55.2 forecast)
EUR/USD: Down - If both sectors perform better than expected, this might signal a stronger US economy, potentially leading to a stronger Dollar.
GBP/USD: Down - Similar to EUR/USD, a stronger US economic outlook could weaken GBP against USD.
USD/JPY: Up - Improved US PMI data might strengthen USD against JPY, especially if this leads to expectations of a tighter Fed policy.
Scenario 2: Both PMIs Worse than Forecast
Actual Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 (Worse than 48.8 forecast)
Actual Services PMI: 54.0 (Worse than 55.2 forecast)
EUR/USD: Up - If both sectors disappoint, this could indicate economic weakness in the US, leading to a weaker USD.
GBP/USD: Up - Weaker US data might make GBP relatively stronger, especially if UK economic indicators are not as disappointing.
USD/JPY: Down - A disappointing PMI might lead investors to question the US economic recovery, potentially weakening USD against JPY.
The Fib is just an example if we was to see a sell off it may come into play. If we not seeing a sell off the Fib will be non existent.
Tesla bearish gap fill for further highs!? Going along the lines of GAP fills since the beginning of the year #tesla have been filling all the gap fills apart from the last 2 big gaps that happened: .
My thoughts:
- will we see a sell off in the remaining weeks of the year? Fill in the 2nd to last remaining gap and then next year push all the way up to $450
- Do we see the sell off happen till president trump is elected as president and then the stock will fly back to the highs of this year? As Elon is part of D.O.G.E
————————————————————————
Bitcoin: 2024-2025 Will Be Bullish!!!We are observing Bitcoin here on a much bigger time scale and also from different perspectives.
We all know about four corners of the market or Wall St. Cheat Sheet Psychology of a Market Cycle. But here we have combined all the knowledge, and we see a beautiful view.
As you are all aware, each halving has begun with a nice bullish market, followed by a bearish market cycle, a nice accumulation, expansion, and then another reaccumulation.
With that being said, we are still 4 months away (around 127 days) from the next halving, and recently we witnessed a nice expansion phase that resulted in a ROI of 175%. This is more than enough for the expansion, which means we are going to enter very soon into the reaccumulation phase.
But be careful; this time more people might get greedy and have a FOMO due to the huge exposure to crypto and bitcoin we have had for the last year.
$SPX Today's closing price is importantHey traders! As shown on the chart, we are inside of my TS Contraction Pattern, we also have my elliott wave count.
If we close below 1st Validation level today, I'm going short.
Closing my short if we close above the invalidation level today or later on, so consider that as a stoploss
Short idea on $BTC In the local setup, I see a good opportunity for execution, with a risk/reward ratio of 1 to 5, which is very favorable. However, the risks here are quite high, so I will enter with a small portion. Reasons for entry. Based on the structure, it’s clear that we are retracing to 0.382 or 0.618 and then heading down. You can check this yourself. Since my portfolio is long, I won’t have any significant losses. If we drop, I’ll reinvest part of it.Reasons for entry. Based on the structure, it’s clear that we are retracing to 0.382 or 0.618 and then heading down. You can check this yourself. Since my portfolio is long, I won’t have any significant losses. If we drop, I’ll reinvest part of it.
EURUSD 01/9/24Here we are at the beginning of September, continuing to follow and track the markets as we do with every Sunday markup that we release. This week, we observed a clear bearish movement. As we move into the new week, we have a scenario suggesting that more downside could occur, while also recognizing the liquidity sitting above the highs. It’s important to understand that the probability of a deeper pullback before any bullish continuation, or an overall shift into bearish order flow, is highly likely given the current market conditions. A deeper pullback would mean lower pricing before a new bullish run continues.
In terms of a potential switch to a bearish outlook overall, we’ll be looking for price to pull back and then move lower before continuing in a trending direction, which is technically the opposite of what we have observed currently. This week, you can see the key levels I’m monitoring: we have our larger time frame refined area of demand, and a high that was created within the 4-hour time frame. We’re currently waiting for the low to be established to give us the high and low for our range. However, I’m expecting the price to come lower and interact with the area of demand, or potentially change the overall trend and direction.
Trade safe. Stick to your risk and always follow your plan.
8.18.2024 Weekly Pre-Market Analysis S&PThis is my Weekly Pre-Market Analysis on the S&P>
Right now we are going to wait for market structure to form.
We saw lower highs and higher lows form on Friday after the last bullish move up. So we do not have a clear direction as to which way if may head.
We have a plan for a SHORT position as well as a plan for a LONG position.
We just need to watch the LOWS & HIGHS form on the 15 minute chart, before we even think of getting into a trade.
FAKE BULL SEASON is OVER!As can be seen, the rising trend that took us from the bottom to the new ATH has been broken and according to the Fib levels, it does not appear that the decline will stop before 56K.
My guess is that the decline will stop temporarily at the minimum angle trend level, that is, 50K, but I do not think we will see a new ATH this year.
My thoughts are giving me no peace with this ideaMy opinion is that the alt season will be very powerful like in 2017. But it will be so sudden. That no one will understand at first what happened. Why do I think so? I believe that Bitcoin will not grow any more. But in order for there to be fomo on the market, it is necessary to make people buy and buy again. It is necessary for big money. There are more details in my position, which I will attach below
NICE TRADE IDEAS INCOMING!!After a nice selloff and a tap of the demand zone, buyers are stepping in.
Two areas marked with the green circles where I'm interested in taking a short and a long if PA plays out nicely.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Congrats!!! Gold Breakout played so well...Gold played out so good as we expected, gold broke the uptrend and started bearish rally and we are lucky that we caught the breakout, till now we have got 320 pips in few hours from a single trade, that was easy, and it also hit our 1st TP now you all who have followed this idea may close or hold the trade to the 2nd TP zone, and also set your trades to Breakeven for no risk at all, i have mentioned the 2nd TP zone which is quite wide so close when you feel like the profits you have earned is enough, and don't over trade...