EURCAD Is Going Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURCAD.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.591.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.578 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Signals
GOLD at its peak, Trump and Powell in focusSpot OANDA:XAUUSD surged, with gold just hitting a new record high of $3,384.62 an ounce. Gold is now up more than $60 on the day. Trump's comments and the Powell "conspiracy" have combined to trigger market activity.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump released his insights into the negotiations on his social media platform Truth Social, saying that "the golden rule of negotiation and success is that he who has the gold makes the rules," meaning he who has the gold will have the upper hand. This post on gold is quite interesting, considering the market volatility caused by Trump's previous comments on stocks on social media.
Gold prices have surged to a record high as the U.S.-led trade war fuels safe-haven demand and the dollar weakens, Bloomberg reported, and data in the coming days could highlight early signs of damage to the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) the following day will provide a snapshot of economic activity since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs.
Gold prices have hit record highs this year as trade conflicts have roiled global markets, denting demand for riskier assets while spurring a rush to safe havens among investors.
Gold ETF holdings have risen for a 12-week streak, the longest such streak since 2022. Central banks have also increased their holdings of gold, supporting strong global demand.
Bloomberg notes that the sell-off in the US dollar intensified on Monday as US President Trump weighs whether to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Powell's possible removal could undermine investor confidence as the Fed's independence is seen as a key factor in investing in US assets. However, given that Trump has previously said he welcomes a weaker currency because it makes US products more competitive, he may welcome a weaker US dollar.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the technical chart, the short correction last Friday ended quickly as gold continued to rise along the short-term price channel.
The increase broke the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, giving gold the conditions to continue to rise with the target of the 3,400 USD price point in the short term, more than the 3,420 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
It is difficult to expect a significant correction in the current context, but the RSI down through 80 can be considered a good signal for the expectation of a short-term correction.
However, with the current position, the main technical outlook for gold is still bullish with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 3,372 – 3,357 USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,420 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3414 - 3412⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3418
→Take Profit 1 3406
↨
→Take Profit 2 3400
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3312
→Take Profit 1 3324
↨
→Take Profit 2 3330
88.5KHappy Easter,
So, our bullish trade is started well. But for now we wouldn't consider too extended targets. Based on AB=CD that we have on 4H chart , next extension is around 93K.
But here is a tricky moment exists and it relates to the H&S shape and strong 87-89K daily resistance. The point is that the right arm is yet to be formed, and it could be started right around 88.5K 1H chart targets.
That's why we're focused on just near standing targets. If Somehow, BTC will jump above 90K, then, the different scenario could appear. But for now we think it would be better to not take more risk and try to extract as much as good result from current positive position.
USDCAD Ready to Collapse? COT Signals a Bearish Storm!🔎 1. COT Context – Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Asset Managers: Consistently net short for most of the period, but since January 2025, there's been a strong recovery—net positions have become progressively less negative. By mid-April, they’re still short, but significantly less so.
Leveraged Money: Also heavily short in December 2024, but showing a clear bullish reversal starting in early 2025, with net positions turning increasingly positive on CAD.
✅ Interpretation: There's been a clear sentiment shift from bearish to bullish on CAD starting late 2024. This adds downward pressure on USDCAD.
💵 2. COT Context – US Dollar Index (USD)
Asset Managers: Consistently long, but reducing their net exposure since late March 2025.
Leveraged Money: Opposite of CAD – heavily short in December 2024, now recovering, though without strong momentum. Positions are hovering around neutral.
⚠️ Interpretation: While CAD grows stronger, USD shows signs of indecision or profit-taking. This amplifies the bearish bias on USDCAD.
📉 3. Technical Analysis – USDCAD
Current Price: 1.38369, right near a strong demand zone between 1.3700 – 1.3830, which has already been tested multiple times.
The current weekly candle is forming a doji or pin bar, hinting at a potential technical bounce.
Key Resistance: 1.45215 (monthly high).
Key Support: 1.3700. A breakdown below this could trigger a move toward 1.3480.
RSI: Neutral to slightly bearish, no major divergences observed.
🧠 Technical Outlook:
If the 1.3700–1.3830 zone holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.4000–1.4100.
If that zone breaks, expect a bearish continuation toward 1.3580–1.3480.
📊 Trade Summary
Fundamental Bias (COT): Bearish USDCAD → Strong CAD, weakening USD.
Technical Bias: Neutral to bearish, potential for short-term bounce before continuation.
🧭 Trade Plan
🎯 Short on pullback toward 1.4000–1.4100 with stop above 1.4150, targeting 1.3600–1.3500.
🎯 Breakout trade below 1.3700 → Enter on daily close confirmation, target 1.3480.
NAS100USD: Bearish Continuation After FVG RebalanceGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the institutional order flow remains bearish, continuing the momentum established during last week’s trading sessions. In alignment with this directional bias, we are strategically focused on identifying high-probability bearish opportunities.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
Sustained Bearish Order Flow:
Institutional behavior continues to reflect a bearish narrative, suggesting that smart money remains committed to driving price lower.
Rebalancing a Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Price is currently rebalancing a notable fair value gap—an internal range inefficiency—providing the perfect confluence zone for bearish setups. This rebalancing typically precedes a draw on external liquidity.
Targeting External Range Liquidity:
As the market rebalances internal inefficiencies (FVGs, order blocks), it subsequently seeks external range liquidity such as sell stops, liquidity pools, and engineered lows. This is a fundamental principle of institutional price delivery.
TRADING PLAN:
Entry Consideration:
Monitor price action within the fair value gap for confirmation of bearish intent. This zone serves as an internal liquidity area, optimal for institutional order execution.
Profit Targets:
Focus on external liquidity resting below previous lows—particularly sell stops and liquidity pools. These levels represent the logical draw where institutions aim to finalize order pairing and take profit.
By following the institutional flow, we align ourselves with smart money practices, improving our precision and probability of success. Stay patient and disciplined—confirmation is key!
Its good to be back,
The_Architect
BITCOIN Well well well.. The break-out happened..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed a massive break-out yesterday as it convincingly left the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) behind on its strongest 1D green candle since . The foundation of this was a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence on the April 08 2025 Low.
This is the same kind of Bullish Divergence that took place on the September 06 2024 Low and resulted in a similar Lower Highs bullish break-out. After an October 02 2024 re-test of the 1D MA50, the trend-line became the new Support all the way to the 3.382 Fibonacci extension (measured from the last Lower High).
As a result, we expect BTC's next medium-term Target to be $130000 (just below the new 3.382 Fibonacci extension).
So do you think the pattern will be repeated? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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GOLD heading to $3,450 or a bull trap ahead?XAUUSD has shown a strong bullish reversal from the key zone at $2,832, with a series of high-volatility, full-bodied weekly candles that completely absorbed the supply in the $3,050–3,140 area. The breakout of previous weekly and monthly highs confirmed a bullish structural shift, with a natural technical target around $3,450—its recent all-time high. Price reacted precisely to previously tested demand blocks, suggesting that buy-side pressure may still have room to expand.
However, a deeper look at COT data reveals a more complex picture: Money Managers’ net positions on GOLD have been declining sharply for months, diverging from price action. This may indicate a rally driven more by retail flows or ETFs than by institutional strength, making it potentially unstable. Additionally, the COT report on the Dollar Index shows growing net long positions among leveraged traders, signaling USD strength—historically a headwind for gold.
In summary, gold remains technically bullish with room to climb to $3,450, but COT data raises a red flag: if institutional positions don’t realign with the move, this rally could turn out to be a bull trap. From a trading perspective, there’s room for aggressive longs, but only with tight risk management.
USDJPY – Searching for a Bottom After a Brutal DropSince the start of the year, USDJPY has been in an almost free fall, losing nearly 2,000 pips and breaking multiple key supports, including the critical 150 level.
Yesterday, we even saw a spike below 140, a level not touched for quite some time.
🔄 However, after that spike, the pair reversed sharply to the upside, showing strong demand in that area.
Interestingly, this zone was tested at the start of 2024 and again back in September, adding even more technical relevance.
📊 Despite the poor outlook for the USD overall, I now expect a meaningful rebound from here, aiming for a retest of the former 146 support, which has now turned into resistance.
💡 Trading Plan:
I will be looking to buy dips near the current support, targeting a 1:3 Risk/Reward setup toward the 146 resistance area.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
NZD-USD Potential Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is making
A local bearish correction
Towards the horizontal support
Level of 0.5912 and after the
Retest we will be expecting
A bullish rebound
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SILVER WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅SILVER has retested a key
Resistance level of 33.15$
And as the pair is already
Making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the
Demand level below
At 32.09$ is likely
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nasdaq on Thin Ice? Smart Money is Bearish!📊 COT Analysis – NASDAQ E-MINI Futures
Asset Managers → Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows.
Leveraged Money → Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce.
✅ COT Conclusion:
Smart money is not buying the dip → fundamental bias = bearish.
🧠 Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade
📉 Structure:
Strong rejection from the 16,700–17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation.
Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone → confirming strong buyer pressure.
🎯 My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP):
Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone
Target: Supply zone 20,400–21,000
Exit: Closed just before the drop → perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance
📈 Post-trade context:
Price then rejected violently from that zone → we’re now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700.
🧭 What’s Next?
🔹 If price pulls back to 19,200–19,500, I’ll look for a short setup
🔹 If it breaks below 18,000 → clean path toward 16,700–16,500
✅ Trade Summary
🔥 Long from structural demand zone → exit at weekly supply
🧠 Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence
🐻 Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely
GOOG Alphabet Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought GOOG before the previous rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GOOG Alphabet prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 170usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-7-18,
for a premium of approximately $4.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CMCSA Comcast Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CMCSA Comcast Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 37.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
SILVER: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 32.816 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CHTR Charter Communications Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CHTR Charter Communications prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 360usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $22.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GBPCAD Will Go Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPCAD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.851.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.834 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Gold accelerates thanks to US-China tensions and a weakening USDGold prices continued to show their strength when breaking through the old peak of 3,434 USD and moving up to 3,460 USD/ounce, equivalent to an increase of more than 61 USD in less than a day, showing that safe-haven buying is overwhelming the entire market. On the 1H chart, the bullish structure is clear with EMA34 and EMA89 maintaining a strong slope, the price continuously increased after short technical corrections, confirming that the uptrend is still very sustainable. In terms of news, gold is being supported by two factors: trade tensions between the US and China escalated after Beijing decided to sharply reduce crude oil imports from the US and shift to Canada, increasing global risk concerns.
At the same time, global stock markets fell sharply, while President Donald Trump's controversial statement asking the FED to immediately cut interest rates sent the USD to a 3-year low. The combination of political uncertainty, risk aversion and a weak greenback has created a strong catalyst for gold to continue to be sought after by investors. In the short term, the $3,440–$3,450 zone could be new support, and if it holds above this zone, gold could continue to extend its rally towards the psychological $3,500 level.
BTC/USD: Hero's Quest to the Boss Treasure BTC/USD: Hero's Quest to the Boss Treasure
Price Action Deep Dive:
BTC/USD has formed a powerful SPAWN POINT breakout on the 4H timeframe, characterized by three consecutive blue candles with minimal wicks, indicating strong buyer control
Prior to the breakout, we observed a period of tight consolidation (level 15-20 grinding phase) where price was building energy for the current upward thrust
The breakout volume significantly exceeds previous candle volumes, confirming legitimate player interest in this upward move
Recent price structure shows higher lows and higher highs, establishing a clear uptrend path toward our target zones
Current candle formation suggests momentum continuation rather than exhaustion, with minimal upper wicks indicating buyers absorbing all selling pressure
Market Structure Context:
The breakout has successfully cleared the previous resistance zone (ELITE LvL 2 HP: 2), transforming it into support for future pullbacks
The Treasure Hunter color shift preceded this move, acting as an early warning signal for observant traders
Major support trendline from previous lows remains intact, providing a "regeneration shield" for any temporary retreats
Each pullback has been increasingly shallow, demonstrating growing reluctance from sellers to engage the hero's advance
The most recent consolidation formed a bull flag pattern before the continuation, classic "power-up charging" price action
With our Hero at Level 159 with full health and the Wizard's Journey already 53% complete, all technical indicators align for continued progress toward BOSS TREASURE around $94,000-$95,000, though we should remain vigilant for temporary pullbacks to the HEALTH POTION zone around $84,000.