$ SMCI Target $ 65.0 Technical and Fundamental AnalysisAfter-hours price : Current: $ 29.50
Technical Analysis
• Key Levels: Crossing and holding above $28 on a weekly close could act as a launchpad for targets of $35 and $42. The bullish trajectory depends on maintaining this support level.
Future Price Targets
• If BDO, SMCI's new auditor, resolves accounting issues without regulatory challenges, the company could aim for a long-term price target of $65. This would rely on continued growth in AI-driven hardware markets and restored investor confidence
Fundamental Analysis
• Revenue and Earnings Growth: SMCI's revenue grew significantly in recent quarters, driven by demand in AI and data center markets. Forward EPS growth projections for the next two years are 41.3%
• Valuation Metrics: SMCI's forward P/E ratio of 5.43 and a PEG ratio of 0.15 highlight a strong value-growth balance
• Margins: Over the last ten quarters, SMCI has shown gross margins averaging around 15.97%, with operating margins of 9.72% and net profit margins of 8.88%. These metrics indicate stable profitability but room for improvement in operational efficiency
.
Summary
SMCI's technical breakout above $28 could unlock medium-term targets of $35 and $42, with the potential for $65 long-term if its operational and accounting challenges are addressed. Monitoring its new auditor’s progress and market developments in AI hardware will be crucial.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.*
Smcimarketstructureindicator
$SMCI surged by 78% ! A comeback or final rally?
Technically, NASDAQ:SMCI is overall moving in a bearish market, and it just be rejected by the resistance level of downtrend line and the high price of previous gap down candle with high volume.
In this case, the price may continue to go bearish if it could not break above the resistance level.
From the aspect of fundamental analysis, there is also a high possibility for NASDAQ:SMCI to go bearish due to the two reasons below.
Evident 1:
SMCI’s drop was driven by financial fraud, with its auditor, Ernst & Young, resigning. Additionally, NVIDIA is shifting its orders away from SMCI. And the price had a short-term callback since the company only recently found a new auditor, BDO, and submitted a compliance plan to Nasdaq.
It’s worth mentioning that NASDAQ:SMCI has experienced a similar situation before. Back in 2019, SMCI faced multiple delisting warnings from Nasdaq for failing to submit its 10-K report and other financial documents on time. Ultimately, SMCI was delisted for not meeting reporting requirements and moved to the over-the-counter market to continue trading. After improving its internal controls and financial reporting, SMCI was able to rejoin the exchange in 2020.
Evident 2: NASDAQ:SMCI doesn’t have any monopolistic products and its offerings are highly replaceable. Several auditing firms have been gradually lowering their ratings and pricing since August, and SMCI has long been heavily dependent on NVIDIA's GPU chips. This dependence is evident, as about 70% of SMCI’s production costs rely on NVIDIA components. Now that NVIDIA is shifting its orders to other suppliers, even if SMCI has found a new auditor and successfully submits a strong Q3 report, its future will largely depend on whether NVIDIA decides to return its orders.
Therefore, the recent surge over the past few days could be due to NASDAQ:SMCI creating a breathing space for itself, namely by submitting a compliance plan to Nasdaq. Regardless of whether it can meet the requirements, submitting the plan serves as a temporary measure to buy time. This move has sparked market enthusiasm, but that enthusiasm is likely to fade. If NVIDIA does not shift its orders back and if SMCI ultimately fails to submit compliant financial reports as outlined in its plan, the recent rise in stock price may turn out to be a short-lived rally, or what could be called a final dance.