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BTC/USD : Trading range configuration (28,800 <=> 69,000) BTC/USD : Trading range configuration (28,800 <=> 69,000) How to describe the price action on goin on crypto and BTC/USD on current level? First of all it always depending the timeframe you are focus on. Here i will present the BTC/USD picture with the same way im used to do it since year : 1/ Situation on Strategic horizon (6 to 12 Month) 2/ Situation on Tactical horizon (1 to 3 weeks) 3/ Potential short-term trade idea (activable trade regarding R/R) 4/ Situation of the BTC regarding the global macro aspect (Multi asset classes and performance of the BTC within Crypto asset) ----- 1/ Strategic Horizon (Range before rise) Looking at (Monthly/weekly/daily Chart elements), the market is progressing within a significant bullish trend with a many chart, wave, and indicators occurence showing 28,800 as a Strategic support to keep safe in weekly close i order to keep the bullish trend valid and anticipating a new ATH towards 77 000 before in the best case 100/120K (max before significant bearish market) Main element : Elliot wave showing a configuration (Corrective wave in Zigzag Flat) to shape wave (IV) consolidating the full up trend from 3000 to 69K. A wave (IV) is totally logic here and quite healthy in order to accumulate new bullish momentum on indicators to push the market higher Once we say that it is normal to follow the downside swing on a shorter horizon.... 2/ Tactical Horizon (bearish towards 34800 max 28,800 - As long as 54000 remains resistance) The 24/09/2021, the combinaison between chart (double top test), Indicators (Divergence rsi + death cross MM daily) + Range configuration (Elliot) on Strategic horizon gave a clear exhaustion signal to fade from the swing up off the range (recovery after the 2020 sell off), 3 weeks after it was the ETH and 4 weeks after it was the CMC 200 index Ex BTC (TOP 200 crypto index) which gave the same signal. It means following this analysis a reduction to the exposure on BTC at 67400 and all the exposure on BTC at 64200 to wait the construction of the downside swing (69000 to 34800) before accumulating new bullish position on BTCUSD. Today The closest key tactical resistance is setup at 54K (See Daily element) MM resistance + Elliot/fibo key level are defining the key resitance to follow the continuation of the drop in order to reach 42400 area before the tactical target at 34800 (If we are following the Elliot wave account, we are now engaging the wave 5 from (c) from (IV) it means the drop towards the support after having consolidate in flat move the last past 20 days (accumulation before drop) 3H hours chart element reverse bearish today after having attempt to accumumate in bullish area in order to test the daily key resistance element (failed) So the logic now is to wait that the daily chart element at least provide exhaustion bearish signal by providing at least a divergence close to the strategic key support (as you can see the RSI is just below 50% so there is room and time... so no rush to buy the dips now.... 3/ Trading idea In the configuration selling all the dead cat bounce are good even now... The first Key resitance level to setup stop position (robust one i mean) is at 51050.... targeting 42400 as free lunch target lets say that between 49000and 50000 we can find a good area to short (i mean on intrday basis), if the market bounce till there (possible as long as 47000 stay support today or tomorrow). But keep in mind that only 54000 K remains the doors to break to invalidate any change of the current bearish dynamic. Mixe conviction to see larger bounce here but in case of 51050 Stay on my perspective the only strong intraday key resistance. 4/ BTC in macro view Here an article (i designed it) : learn.akt.io (keep in mind the level on SP500 are on weekly basis - so 4760 has been challenged but the zone is 4760/4830) Have a nice evening Jean
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by JeanJean1983
2
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 07 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 07 Week Last week's ES saw price rejection at previous breakdown level 4573 and test of breakout 4411-4446. Shall 4411-4446 support hold, shall look for long opportunity. If market returns into rotation, strategy will then be to short at upper boundary resistance and long at lower boundary support. Indecision on Daily/Weekly bar may cause whipsaw movement, trade with care. Weekly: Average volume up bar closing in middle = indecisiveness Daily: Average volume bar closing in middle. It has a lower low than previous bar, and closed higher and in the middle = some strength, but indecisive still. H4: High volume Upthrust bar, weakness will be confirmed if next bar closes lower. Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4629 4573 4520 4492 4411 4446 4318 4267 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stocks Reject Higher LevelsStocks have showed some weakness after rejecting higher levels at 4580. We appear to have topped out at this level for now with several red triangles on the KRI confirming prohibitive resistance for now. The Kovach OBV has taken a notable dive downward, but we have found support for now at 4462. We might be forming a bear wedge with a lower bound at this level. If we are able to break through, we should see good support at 4440, otherwise we will enter the previous value area between 4272 and 4440 again. If we see a burst of momentum, then 4580 must be broken before we attempt higher levels in the 4600's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Meet ResistanceThe S&P 500 has made a run for higher levels, but has faced extreme resistance at 4580, which we identified as a hurdle for stocks in these reports. We attempted to break higher, but several red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance. Subsequently, a small retracement took us back to support at 4521. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, lending skepticism to this rally. If we retrace further, it is likely that we will see support at 4440 again. If we are able to see momentum come through then 4632 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
Stocks Hit Our Profit Target 🤑📈 Will Momentum Continue??Stocks have gained notable momentum. We have broken through our first target of 4487, and have made a run for the second level at 4580. We are currently seeing some resistance at this level, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. There is a vacuum zone above 4580 to 4632, which is our next target for the S&P 500 if we are able to break 4580. The Kovach OBV is trending up, indicating bullish momentum, but we are facing a lot of resistance from these levels. If resistance prevails, we may retrace to support at 4487 again, or even retrace the entire move back to 4440.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Break Out!!Stocks have gained steam in the Asia-Pacific session, finally breaking through the upper bound of the range at 4440, which they have been holding all week last week. The S&P 500 was able to reach our next target of 4487, and continued to trend up, before finally coming up for air around 4521, where two red triangles on the KRI are noting resistance. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, suggesting there may be more legs to this rally. Watch for momentum at the open for confirmation. If so, then our next target is 4580. Once we break this level there is a vacuum zone back up to 4632. In the event of a retracement, 4440 should provide support, and if not, we will reenter the value area between 4272 and 4440 once again.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Test the RangeStocks are maintaining the wide range between 4272 and 4440. We are currently tending to the upper bound of this range, testing higher levels where we are meeting resistance. The Kovach OBV is trending upwards, suggesting a slight bull divergence. Watch the open today to determine if momentum picks up for clues as to whether we can break 4440. If so, the next target is 4487, then 4580. If 4440 provides prohibitive resistance, we could make a run for lows again at 4272, but we have plenty of levels of support in between from which we could get a pivot. Stocks must definitively break 4440 before we can be considered 'bullish' again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
S&P500 due for bounce - dead cat or rocket?The week's worth of S&P500 action was exciting, confusing and has implications for the next couple of weeks... The weekly chart shows the bounce off the weekly 55EMA with a nice long tail, likely a week or two of technical bounce to follow. The daily chart has a very bullish looking candle on Friday, where a long tail ends with good momentum to close at the top. While the weekly MACD is dropping off into the bearish territory, the daily MACD appears to be technically finding its way back to mean. Overall, this has odd implications, one being a start of a real bounce/recovery to historical high (or higher) OR it is a dead cat bounce for further downside after checking in with the daily 55EMA (about 4500). It is opined that we should have a visit to the last low, near 4200, but the real question is when . Meanwhile, stay nimble...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
Technical Analysis for StocksStocks appear to be establishing value in the lower 4300 handle. We have support from below at 4272, and are facing resistance above at 4440. The Kovach OBV has completely flattened out, confirming the indecision. Currently, it appears we are making a run for lower levels, so watch 4272. If we are able to break this, then 4228 is the next target. Beyond that, we have 4214, then a vacuum zone to 4188. If we catch a bid and are able to break 4440, then 4487 will be the level to break before 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Tumble after FOMCStocks have broken down from 4440, and sought out lower levels in the 4300 handle after dipping as low as 4272. This followed the FOMC meeting, where the Fed delayed an interest rate hike but noted that a hike every subsequent meeting for 2022 was not out of the question. This and balance sheet reduction is their plan to combat the highest inflation in a generation. The markets jostled to digest this information with choppy trading before stocks dumped to lower levels. The Kovach OBV is tapering upwards in an apparent divergence with price, which fell through two handles before finding support in the 4300's, reaching 4353, where we are seeing resistance from a red triangle on the KRI. If we fall further, then we should have support at 4245 or 4223. If we rally, then we will see resistance at 4440. It is likely that stocks will try to establish value somewhere between these two bounds before making their next move.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Hinge on Three Key Issues from the FOMC Statement TodayStocks continue to edge up trepidaciously, testing 4421 or so, the levels from which we dumped on Monday. Two red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance here at every attempt. We won't see much action in stocks until after the FOMC minutes in the afternoon. A rate hike is largely priced into the markets, so when this happens, we should be able to break out higher. However, if their rhetoric is particularly hawkish, we could make another run for lows. Watch what they have to say about three key issues: inflation, Omicron, and Russia tensions, all issues which are currently spooking investors. If we are able to break out, then 4487, and 4580 are the next targets. If we break lower, we could test 4245 again. The Kovach OBV is edging up showing a slight bull divergence, but the FOMC event is what the markets are hanging on before their next move.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Have Stocks Bottomed??Stocks dumped yesterday as we anticipated in the reports. Yesterday morning, we saw a small bounce from the S&P 500 apparently attempting to test the mid 4400 handle, but this was attempt was swiftly batted down in a persistent selloff that lasted most of the day. At the end of the day, we saw a sharp buyback, which could have been a gamma squeeze as puts were piling into the order books. The sharp short squeeze erased all of our losses with some stock indexes ending the day in the green. Currently, we edged lower, as the markets equilibrate from the selloff and subsequent rally. We appear to be getting support from 4327 and resistance from 4389 at the moment. If we continue to press higher, we could see an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 4409 or 4440. A breakout from there could test 4487, or 4580. If things take a turn for the worse, then 4245 should provide support, but if not 4188 and 4178 are the first levels in the 4100 handle.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
VIX - 9th time lucky? All of the blue cups are the same size and as you can see, they have been very accurate in attempting to capture the potential movement of the VIX in relation to the markets. We're seeing the markets making up some of the lost ground from yesterdays sell as expected, but if the bowl is to be respected as we have seen so 9 times in a row (last 6 being very accurate), we can see it reach levels between 25 and 31. I would consider buying nearer the bottom of the bowl if it reaches there with a tight SL, taking profit @ 25, 28.5 and 32. Best of luck! Sky,
TVC:VIXLong
by SkyTrees
Stocks Dip Sharply, A Bearish Start to the WeekStocks have fallen, taking a turn for the worse at the opening of the Asia-Pacific session. We have given up the 4400 handle entirely to seek support in the 4300's. We made a valiant attempt to pivot to the mid 4400's, where 4431 proved to be a barrier. A rejection took us back to support at 4380. A green triangle on the KRI is starting to suggest some support here, but the risk sentiment is looking pretty bearish. We should have support from 4364, 4350, and 4327 in the event of another dump. If we are able to catch a relief rally, 4431 should provide resistance, with 4487 a likely ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 24 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 24 Week Last week rejection at 4573 offered great short opportunity. Preference to short on retracement / when price returns to test shakeout area - possible scenarios provided Weekly: Ultra wide spread high volume down bar = strength may be returning Daily: High volume up down bar closing near low = weakness H4: Very high volume down bar closing at low = concern of buying into the down move Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4629 4573 4520 4492 4411 4332 4267 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stocks DUMP!! What to Expect...Stocks plummeted near close yesterday, cratering more than 100 points. It appears that the stock market is not digesting the Russia/Ukraine issue, with NATO talks 'going nowhere'. We made an attempt to break into the vacuum zone above 4580, but a red triangle on the KRI marked sharp resistance early into this attempt. Subsequently we sold off, smashing through the 4500 handle, and testing levels in the 4400 handle. We appear to be seeing support from 4462, and made a small attempt at a pivot to 4487, where we are currently seeing notable resistance. At the time of this writing, we are currently seeing what appears to be a rejection, seeking support at 4462. The already abysmal Kovach OBV has taken a sharp turn downward, but does appear to be showing signs of leveling off. We have a cluster of levels in the lower 4400's to provide support including 4440, 4431, 4421, and 4408. All of these could potentially be targets if the selloff persists. If not, we could make a run for the relative low at 4521 or attempt 4580 again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Continue to Dive 📉😱Stocks have continued to press lower, breaking several key levels. After breaking 4580, we made a brief attempt at a pivot back through the vacuum zone to test 4632, but that fizzled quickly. Subsequently, we plummeted back to lower levels, breaking 4545 and finally finding support at 4521. A green triangle on the KRI is confirming support at this level. The Kovach OBV is still abysmally bearish, arching straight down, with not the slightest sign of leveling off to suggest a bottom forming. However, at this point we are quite oversold and due for a relief rally, even if its just technically driven. If so, watch for a breakout from 4580 into the vacuum zone again, with 4632 being a potential target. If the rout continues, then 4504 and 4487 are the next targets to the downside.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Take a Noisedive!! Is a bottom in sight??Stocks took a sharp turn for the worse. As predicted, the break down from the inverse head and shoulders pattern we identified two days ago, was a bearish sign indeed. We have traversed the vacuum zone below 4632 and made a run for 4580. We anticipated this level to hold, but we saw only a brief attempt at a pivot off this level which was quickly sold back down, breaking 4580 and testing the next two levels down. We have several levels in the upper 4500 handle to provide a cushion, and it appears like 4545 may be doing the job for now. If not, the next levels are 4521 and 4504, the latter being the last support level in the 4500 handle. We have seen a small pivot from 4545, and are currently testing 4580 again, peaking up just above this level at the time of this writing. We have encroached upon the vacuum zone between 4580 and 4632 again, but the Kovach OBV has been solidly bearish for most of 2022. If we do see a rally, 4632 is bound to provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2