Soybeans
Soy. Stuck in downtrend for 18 months. Turnaround time?Is it time now? If it closes above this trendline by the end of the week, well worth watching and keeping an eye out for entries intraday and daily.
Soybean - First time seeing this chartI was inspired by a friend who was asking me about the soybean. I don't trade this commodity but it was worth looking at now.
See how the price reacted nicely to the Bullish Bat at around 9.17, and now I see a potential Bearish Bat to short at around 10.23
It just goes to show that as long as the financial instrument is liquid enough, there will be Harmonic Patterns forming in them
Bullish beans pending breakout New crop beans are a little indecisive here at this point in time. But there are a few key indicators pointing to a movement upward.
1. Fundamental Analysis:
- China has been on holiday the last week. beans are cheap when comapred to rest of global market.
- China needs to buy beans for nov coverage.
-when they get back you will see big buying which will allow us to have good exports.
2. Technical Analysis:
- stoch looks promising
- big buying last couple days bringing increased momentum.
- bullish channel forming nicely after bounce from the support
-ascending triangle forming within the bullish channel
Look for a breakout through resistance of ascending triangle, then look for price to test upper side of bullish channel.
If price is held at ascending triangle resistance, look for move to lower side for another bounce off of support.
Soy beans set up spread longSoy on the year over year spread is getting to its widest point and could be setting up a good buying spot. This is a great way to get long beans from this low with great reduction of buying power. After a confirmed bounce off bottom and if we still have enough time will look to adding a theta component to the trade. Please feel free to ask questions.
Soybeans - correctionThere's a possible zigzag in wave (ii), so we could have a bullish rally pretty soon.
Soybeans - third waveWave (iii) has been started, so we could have a massive bullish rally in the coming weeks.
Soybeans (Supply & Demand levels) 1H ChartSupply and Demand levels for Soybeans / 60
Dark red = Fresh supply zone
Light red = Re-tested supply zone
Green = Fresh demand zone
Light Green = Re-tested demand zones
Short term analysis:
Price is moving in a bullish channel with price pulling back from Point of Control (VPS). Lower channel trendline is close to two fresh demand zones supported by high volume.
Bearish scenario:
Price pullback to demand zones and fails to continue breaking below the 10$ psychological level. This could result in a move down to 9.85$. Additional support is likely to be found at 9.783$, Daily chart pivot point.
Bullish scenario:
Buy orders are filled at the two fresh demand zones and price re-enter channel. Strong supply lies in the range of 10.24$- 10.60$. Past that level notable supply can be found between 10.339$ / 10.367$
Yes! Right Time to Buy SoyBean!I believe that successful trading strategies rely heavily upon identifying consolidation zones. Consolidation zones provide us the right direction of the market. Consolidation happens when a market move sharply upside or downside. Later, a trader can use these consolidation zones to identify patterns, whether it be a continuation or reversal.
It requires attention and care. Rather than turning out to be a factory of producing signals, it is better to sit down and look for a setup. Setups are important because we are planning a trade and execute them on time. If you fail to plan a setup, then you are planning to fail.
Another advantage of trade setup is that we know where to get out and the right time to go in. Know the market. Study the price movements and make your trades.
My charts use price movements, patterns, structures and indicators such as moving averages and oscillators. Trading intelligence is combining multiple knowledge to produce a favorable trade setup and plans.
Im long soybean oilSaw a double bottom and got the indicator confirmation. Long with stops at break even
June 2017 Soybean Crush Spread TradePM's Crush Spread (+1 ZS Soybeans, -1 ZL oil -1 ZM meal to sell this spread). September 2017 futures contracts.
This chart is weighted by Market value of each contract (the y scale shows profit / loss per 1 lot).
1. Seasonable window for lower prices in this spread from end of May until end of June.
2. RSI Divergence.
Soybeans: A Look at Current MarketOverall, market is down but could be in final stages of down trend from 2012 highs
Monthly Chart
In the March/April time frame, the DMI changed to where the -DI is dominant. The ADX continues to trend down signaling whichever dominant trend is not that strong. Current targeted support is 8.910. Though, there is an area in the +/-8.000 range that has provided support in the past. With the ADX approaching 20, it is possible that the 8 range (green on monthly chart) provides support for consolidation before next major trend develops.
Weekly Chart
The weekly chart has a more bearish definition to it.
DMI - A sell trigger was hit the week of 3/6 at 9.972. The -DI is dominant so the TRIX will be used to drive exit and potential re-entry.
TRIX - On week of 4/10, the TRIX signaled a potential exit. Price did close above this line during week of 5/1 but next week failed to follow-thru. So, weekly traders would have remained in trade. This week (5/29) will verify the down trend is continuing if TRIX holds below HMA.
Daily Chart
The daily chart has provided several sell triggers with most recent at 9.356. Price is currently sitting on previous support at 9.035
4hr Chart
The 4hr chart has several interesting concepts on it.
(1) A sell trigger occurred on 5/17 at 9.562
(2) The TRIX indicated a cover of short on 5/18. With next period follow-thru, the short would have been exited
(3) A buy trigger occurred on 5/21. However, there was no follow-thru so a long position would not have been taken
(4) When the ADX drops below both DI's and/or 20, trend trading should be put on hold and a price pattern for consolidation should be identified. From the consolidation, look for a breakout to trade. Some potential items to watch are:
DMI - During this time, there were several triggers but only last had follow-thru
TRIX - The TRIX dropped below 0 (bearish) and then pulled back but remained below 0 before continuing down again with the next trigger
(5) Sell trigger at 9.361 with follow-thru and new short entered
(6) A developing continuation pattern. I've seen these occur when the next time frame up (daily in this case) is developing a sustained trend. The TRIX/HMA combo indicate a new res->sup line but price fails to close and hold above it. If not stopped out, then continue to hold short.
Soybean futures: Daily uptrend signal, potential monthly bottomI am long Soybeans here, I think we can see a monthly bear trap from here onwards.
There is a daily uptrend signal, yet to be confirmed but likely to occur. I'd reccomend entering longs gradually, to ride the monthly trend.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Soybeans - pullback from channelThere's an ending diagonal in wave ((C)) of iv, so bears are likely going to deliver wave v of (c) of ((b)) soon
Soybeans settle into rangeSoybeans settle into their "normal range". Time to sell straddles or strangles.
Soybean -- good position for medium term longNice position to try long from here (945).
Stop below 935 (daily close).
Potential Bullish Shark for BeansUSDA report put Beans lower Friday. Be alert for spring and summer rallies, which have occurred in the previous two years. Next downside for Beans is a retest of 947.
Soybeans (SOYBNUSD)- In the latest prospective planting document, it was reported that acreage allocated for soybeans will increase by 7% this upcoming season. This means that soybean is fundamentally bullish. Analysis from previous reports show that there is an 80% correlation between an increase in acreage and an increase in prices 10-days post the release of the report. Additionally, there is a perfect correlation between an increase in acreage and an increase in prices 20-days post. Regardless of acreage changes, soybeans prices have gone up 7 times out of the last 10 years 20-days post of the release of the prospective planting report.
- It is anticipated that soybeans will drop to the next major support line before heading back up
- Entry price will be approximately 9.16
- There is also a Gartley pattern, with the D point @ 9.20, which is confluent with the support line
- First profit target will be at 10.260, however prices will likely go higher
- Note: The D point of the gartley can drawn by using a 78.6% retracement of the XA leg
