$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD
We will have choppy times ahead.
Target 4600
Above 4600 Vey Low Volume
The sentiment is positive
4060 is support
Technically
Higher Highs Lower Lows
We are slowly leaving the current ange
The ranges are increasing
The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher.
If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend.
That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
Sp500future
SP500 Bearish ScenarioThe #SP500 diverged 61% from the trend it had referenced since 1940.
When we look at such divergences in history, we see that the index has returned to the reference trend.
The beginning of this reversal is usually confirmed by a close below the SMA9 on the 3-month timeframe. This level is currently displayed as $4174.
In a possible bear scenario, EMA60 or $2651 will guide us for the priority return level. Finally, EMA120, which is already at the same level as the reference trend level, will act as the last support.
In addition, looking at the SP500 index in the daily time frame, the McClellan Oscillator, which has been working very successfully since 1900s, turned negative last week.
However, another factor that can contribute to my analysis is that the monetary and fiscal policies made by HSBC today are not compatible with the bond and stock markets, and that the current recession will go further.
S&P 500, 6/22/23For Thursday, 4444.50 can contain session strength, below which 4352.50 is likely intraday, 4257.50 in reach by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis, possibly into later July.
Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 4444.50 signals 4462.50, while closing today above 4444.50 indicates 4503.50 within several days, able to contain buying through next week and the point to settle above for yielding the 4613.00 longer-term objective within several more weeks.
S&P 500, 6/20/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.
On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months.
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For Tuesday, 4451.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4606.50 remains 2 - 3 week objective.
Upside Tuesday, 2522.50 can contain session strength, while closing above 4522.50 should yield 4606.50 by the end of next week, able to contain buying through July.
Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4451.75 allows 4404.25 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for indicating a good weekly high, 4299.50 then expected by the end of next week, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later July trade.
S&P 500, 6/15/23For Thursday, 4399.00 can contain intraday weakness, the targeted 4441.25 - 4446.50 area in reach and able to contain buying through the balance of June.
Holding below 4441.25 allows 4203.75 long-term support by the end of July or sooner, while closing today above 4446.50 signals our 4600.00 longer-term objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
Downside Thursday, 4367.50 can contain session weakness, while closing below 4367.50 indicates a good weekly high, 4263.75 then expected within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4186.75 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
S&P 500, 6/14/23For Wednesday, 4402.50 can contain intraday weakness, the targeted 4436.00 - 4446.50 area in reach and able to contain buying through the balance of June, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 4203.75 within 3 - 5 weeks.
On the other hand, closing today above 4446.50 signals the 4596.50 longer-term objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
Downside Wednesday, 4353.00 can contain session weakness, indicates a good weekly high, 4263.75 then expected within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4188.50 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
S&P 500, 6/13/23For Tuesday, 4348.75 can contain intraday weakness, 4385.00 in reach and able to contain intraday strength.
Pushing/opening above 4385.00 allows 4409.00 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the targeted 4430.50 formation tomorrow, where the market can top out into July activity.
Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4348.75 signals 4328.75, able to contain session weakness.
Closing today below 4328.75 indicates 4263.75 within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4190.25 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
S&P Futures: Mind the "Bull Market" GapIs this the proper way to start a new bull market? Asking for a friend...
-Home prices relative to income are higher than during the peak of the 2008 financial crisis.
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-62% of new homebuyers are having trouble paying their mortgages.
listwithclever.com
-Some cities already seeing a rollover in housing prices with a rise in inventory.
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-Investors are leaving the housing market.
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-Commercial real estate is busting.
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-Hotel developers are broke.
www.reuters.com
-Total credit card debt has crossed $1 trillion for the first time ever.
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-Credit card delinquency rates are rising.
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-7 stocks are responsible for all of the gains in the SP500 this year.
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- Student debt payments are about to resume putting more pressure on cash-strapped consumers.
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Good luck out there in this new "bull market". I suspect that the gap will be filled sooner rather than later, especially with that lower TDI indicator showing the RSI above its upper Bollinger Band.
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007.
Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another.
Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher.
A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears.
Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
SP500 - SHORT SETUPOn daily timeframe, we have a last pump wich show us the level of distribution area, nothing bullish undeer 4200.
If the daily candle will close under 4.160, i will enter short
ES Overnight Breakdown Continuation?Will ES continue to break down the main channel support? If we do not hold 4150, I believe we will see a much needed cool off and a main channel retest around ~4120.
I played a short overnight for 20 points for a measured move of yesterdays leg. I believe we will see a small bounce to retest the uptrend, then see continuation down to the main channel as we have lost a bit of steam.
S&P 500 Futures Set-UpPut Option' Premiums are cheap compared to the chance of having a pullback.
RSI in overbought ranges.
Volume has been decreasing for the last weeks.
Entry Level: 4130
Stop Loss set at 4220 .
First Take Profit at 4050 . Second Take Profit at 3980 .
*Important to pay attention to the price action at the level of 4050. If it is recovered quickly, it will be bullish.
Consider moving the stop loss closer to the breakeven point if that happens.
Priority Number One: Survive in the market.
S&P 500 Index Analyze !!!S&P 500 has been moving on Ascending Channel for about 12 years😱. S&P 500 had an Impulse wave with an Extended 3rd Wave . When wave 3 is extended , we can use from Elliott Wave Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Guidelines of extended waves :
🔅 If wave 3 is extended , waves 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in magnitude and duration.= This guideline is running correctly on my chart✅ = The end of the main wave 5 (Zone): 4505 until 4182
🔅If wave 3 is extended , then wave 4 often ends at the level of sub-wave 4 of 3 and is quite shallow (retraces 23.6% – 38.2% of wave 3). This guideline is running correctly on my chart✅
🔴 Heavy Resistance Zone : 5817 until 5348 .
S&P 500 Index Analyze Timeframe 2 Weeks ( Log Scale )
❗️ Note ❗️: I expect that S&P 500 would go down at least until the middle line of ascending Channel .
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
My today's view on SP500 - FutureHi Traders,
This is my view for today on ES
Micro and Macro structure are both aligned. There’re few zone I’ll wait for the price to test:
- 4025 for a short
- 4080/90 for a short, as well
- 3960 for a long (but I need a strong confirmation)
Pit, Trading Kitchen
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
US500 Trading in a triangleHello Traders,
on higher timeframes CURRENCYCOM:US500 is trading on a triangle. For the moment we don't know where will be a breakout so we're trading inside of it.
Next target probably the 3850 level.
BOOK of SAMUEL: DAVID V GOLIATHWow! This is a first for me, in such a large timeframe. Looking at both patterns forming. The larger head & shoulders pattern may take precedence, as it is generally considered to be a more significant pattern. If the H&S pattern is confirmed, it would suggest that the uptrend is ending and that a downtrend may be beginning. However, if the Inverted H&S pattern is also confirmed, it could indicate that the trend is changing and that an uptrend is beginning.
My today's view on SPX500 FutureHi Traders,
This is my view for today on ES
Ok, the micro-structure. Is aligned to the macro one from are 4050. There is one more GAP to fill around 4080 area.
Today’s target is 4090 and could be reached directly during London Session or (better to me) by a liquidity grab from 4057 or Asian Session High Level.
Pit, Trading Kitchen
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
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TRADE UPDATE: TARGET REACHED - SP500Our short term trade paid off nicely even though it took 5 days.
The price headed to our target price of 4,008.
We now need to bank our profits and move on to the next trade.
Now we have a gap that is still to fill and we have orders to still fill on the daily (Fair Value Gap).
But I'll let you know!
My today's view on SP500 FutureHi Traders,
This is my view for today on ES
In terms of Structures and Technical Analysis, everything is BEARISH, next target is 3838, honestly I don’t think will be touched directly during today’s session. A possible manipulation around 4000 level key zone during US opening could bring market to the target.
Pit, Trading Kitchen
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
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