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SP500 BULLISHMarket Structure: SP500 is in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows and approaching a key level (support, uptrend line, swing low) and there is likely an accumulation of sell orders which are made up of breakout traders and stop losses of long positions. This accumulation of orders creates enough liquidity for the market to match orders at this low point before positioning to go higher. Trade: Wait for price to close below the swing low point and enter long on a buy stop @ 4378.60
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Mankz
$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD We will have choppy times ahead. Target 4600 Above 4600 Vey Low Volume The sentiment is positive 4060 is support Technically Higher Highs Lower Lows We are slowly leaving the current ange The ranges are increasing The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher. If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend. That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DaveBrascoFX
4
Trading Plans for MON. 08/14 - Back To The Basics?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/14 With the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation, and the earnings almost in the rear view mirror, markets might be going back to the basics this week in search of a direction. Our trading plans published on Thu., 08/10 stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". Last week's PPI numbers have validated why we didn't give too much weight to the CPI numbers and the markets' bounce following that. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to choppy markets to continue. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4483, 4474, 4466, or 4452 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4478, 4470, 4455, or 4446  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4462, and explicit short exits on a break above 4458. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Innovation boosts P/E ratios - P/E ration evolvesTechnological Innovation is Compounding Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to businesses' margins but it all comes down to: better tech = more efficiency = lower costs = higher earnings = higher P/E These innovation cycles bring efficiency leaps that are linked to P/E ratio waves. We can observe in this chart that the P/E ratio has cycles that coincide with innovation cycles. There were, of course, macroeconomic factors and wars that impacted the P/E, but high P/E can be explained by innovation cycles. We can also see that each innovation cycle will have higher P/E ratios than the previous. By looking at this chart, it feels that the P/E ratios still have room to grow.
SP:SPXLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/11 Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". Today's PPI numbers have validated why we didn't give too much weight to yesterday morning's CPI numbers and the markets' bounce following that. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to choppy markets to continue. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4492, 4481, or 4452 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4498, 4478, 4461, or 4447  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4488, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Moved too quick, is moving too quick or in wrong spotBest case--market is up tomorrow, however the high will be the highest high experienced for the next few years. See why below. Moved too quick? There is a possible chance Intermediate wave 2 completed today at the high within the first hour of trading. The forecast zone for ending price was 4519-4536 with a median historical target based on the most relational 2C12 wave ending at 4525.03. The slightly broader median data target for C12 waves was 4536.93, while the broadest dataset for 12 waves was 4528.65. Today’s top was 4527.37. If Intermediate wave 2 ended at this top, wave 2 would have lasted a whole 5 hours AFTER Intermediate wave 1 was 65 hours. Intermediate wave 2 would have lasted 7.69% the length of wave 1. Historical waves ending in 2C12 have made it at least 14.29% the length of the preceding wave 1. Wave 2’s ending in C12 have recorded lengths that are 7.5 and 7.69% of preceding wave 1. This is the first possibility to consider. If this scenario is true, downward movement should continue tomorrow. Moving too quick? Most models predicted at least 19 hours for the length of Intermediate wave 2. Second most agreement was 65 hours (length of wave 1), third was 32 hours and fourth was 22 hours. If the high recorded today was the end of Minor wave A AND today’s low afterward was Minor wave B, Minor wave C will be a long, slow climb or best-case end tomorrow and requiring another 70 point gain in one day (not impossible as of late). The main concerns supporting this thesis is today’s low dropped beneath the starting point of what would have to be Minor wave A. Corrective waves are the only waves in which wave B can surpass the starting point of the preceding wave which is what happened when today’s low dropped to 4577.92 which was a 105% retracement of Minor wave A’s movement. On a brighter note, Minor wave A was originally forecasted to end around 4525 IF all of Intermediate wave 2 were to sustain a top near 4532. Minor wave B was temporarily placed in a conservative position 40 points beneath A. IF the index remains in Intermediate wave 2, it is likely in Minor wave C up. There is no expectation or requirement for duration and the top can occur anywhere near the top of A, to include falling short of it. This scenario will hold true if the market is up tomorrow. A further drop below 4457.92 invalidates this theory. In the wrong spot? There are 3 clear waves moving upward for the currently marked Minor wave A at 4527.37 from today and 5 waves down for the currently marked Minor wave B (which can are most visible on a smaller timeframe chart). Minor wave A should have 5 waves in it and wave B should have 3. The alternative is that the currently marked Minor wave A up is either Intermediate wave 2 being fully completed, or some sort of wave 2 or wave 4 action from another macro wave set which would mean we are clearly in the wrong place. The Intermediate wave 2 scenario is a possibility, and the 5 waves afterward moving down could then be the first wave 1 down inside of Intermediate wave 3. This would mean the waves have sped up almost to an unrealistic, but possible pace. This is most likely NOT Minute wave 4 from Minor wave 5 back in Intermediate wave 1 because would be called Minute wave 4 has surpassed the ending point of what was marked as Minute wave 2. A new and sustained low below 4450 tomorrow could prove this scenario true. I have received wave 3 of wave 3 indicators all of the previously mentioned and plotted locations which is part of my bias believing the chart above is marked accurately. However, even with 3 of 3 indicators in the correct position, another wave could have sped up or slowed down which could push us further ahead than charted. The original Intermediate wave 2 forecast levels remain on the right side of the chart. If Minor wave C continues with upward movement tomorrow, the historical levels based on the currently placed Minor waves A & B are on the left. Minor wave C is not expected to move much higher than 4527.37 (the high from Minor wave A). Based on historical waves ending in C12C (light blue levels), the first quartile movement extension is 110.40%, the median is 126.14%, and the third quartile is 126.49%. This is not a typo. A large chunk of the data has had the top between 115-127%. This would be 4544 at the highest which is in line with the original Intermediate wave 2 projection at 4541.90. Models project Minor wave C to last 4-5 trading hours which would place the top toward the end of the trading day tomorrow (Friday August 11). All historical Minor wave C have travelled at least 105% of wave A’s movement placing a probable floor around 4530 (Minor wave C should end above 4530 per this data point). Based on waves ending in 12C (yellow levels), quartiles are 110.54%, 126.49%, and 172.42%. Models once again agree on 4-5 hours, with an outside chance at 8 hours long. Based on the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C (white lines), the quartiles are 116.55%, 138.4%, and 180.25%. Duration still holds firm at 4-5 hours with outside chance at 8. Bottom-line is tomorrow could continue the whipsaw up and back down, up into the weekend, or just outright down. Intermediate wave 2 from a duration standpoint will not likely end on late Monday or early Tuesday as originally projected. The level for the top and end of Intermediate wave 2 still looks valid. I have re-adjusted the target box for the new projected zone IF we are still in Intermediate wave 2 and the market moves up tomorrow.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
5
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/10S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/10 With the Fed and Interest Rates not burning issues anymore (at least for now), with major earnings mostly in the rear view mirror, markets are struggling to find a direction and a relevant factor to latch onto. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to listless markets. Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4525-4535 is the resistance level, a daily close above which will turn our models cautiously bullish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4502, 4516, or 4525 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4520, 4513, 4486, or 4472  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4497, and explicit short exits on a break above 4477. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: We are decommissioning our Positional Trading plans today, in order to launch them in a separate mode down the road. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Wave 3 Already?The selloff at the end of the day is exactly what was needed to maintain the projected top of Minor wave A. However, it is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 have now completed. This means Minute wave 3 could take the market up above 4515 tomorrow before cooling off into Minute wave 4. Minor wave A and Minute wave 5 end points have been updated based on the close and are a little higher than the initial projections assuming Minute wave 3 is tomorrow and sees the index climb above 4510-4520. The other major update is the final endpoint for Intermediate wave 2 up appears to fall no later than the end of trading hours on Tuesday. We will see how the trade goes tomorrow and possibly issue an updated forecast tomorrow night. The likely Minute wave 3 movement extension levels are on the left and should be finished tomorrow. The retracement levels for Intermediate wave 2 are on the right. Light blue levels are based on most specific historical waves to the wave being studied. Yellow levels are slightly less specific historical data, and white levels are based on the broadest data. This should be the trade assuming the CPI report is viewed as a positive report (even though the data is almost old news at this point and not accounting for the recent significant rise in fuel prices).
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
3
Generally Up Until TuesdayWith Intermediate wave 1 likely in the books, I have projected the top for Intermediate wave 2. It won't be as high as originally thought. Minor wave A could end tomorrow or Friday and wave B could end Friday or Monday. The end looks like maybe Tuesday based on historical data. Intermediate wave 1 ended about an hour late today but the market roared after the bottom per analysis: The move up this afternoon almost ran the whole length of Minor wave A's expectation so a cool off today may continue to provide room for gains tomorrow. The inflation read still appears to be a catalyst for gains, but maybe 20-30 points early on Thursday is not a significant jump or confidence in the reported numbers which the pundits may add the context of fuel prices having gone up after the end of July. This realization should led the market down into Minor wave B temporarily and then some sort of short rally should occur Monday/Tuesday. The next drop should be another 150-300 pointer. The projected bottom for this first Primary wave 1 down right now is early October, however, based on the ending point of Intermediate wave 1, it is possible the bottom is October remains above 4050 AND the final market low toward the end of 2024 could remain above 3100 based on the analysis here:
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Markets Searching for a Direction - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/09 With the Fed and Interest Rates not burning issues anymore (at least for now), with major earnings mostly in the rear view mirror, markets are struggling to find a direction and a relevant factor to latch onto. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to listless markets. Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction. The level of 4480-4490 is now the main support level, with 4500 the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate the same trading plans as yesterday: i.e., going long on a break above 4486, 4491, 4502, 4507 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4475, 4483, or 4497  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4505, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Start Low, Run High On WednesdayLooks like the bottom is on track for early tomorrow Minute wave 5 should end tomorrow morning simultaneously ending Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C. Minute wave 1 was only 3 hours long, and Minute wave 3 was only 2 hours long. This would mean Minute wave 5 should be 2 hours or less in duration. The quickest way to the bottom in only 2 hours is another gap down at the open. Right now, the models are not projecting a drastic bottom and they pretty much align with the initial projection for Minor wave 5 the other day which can be seen here where strongest model agreement had Minor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading tomorrow: The originally forecast bottoms for Minor wave 5 are in the center of the chart above and the newest levels projecting the end of Minute wave 5 are toward the left. The light blue levels for each are based on the most specific dataset relationally consistent with the current wave. The yellow levels are slightly less specific and the white levels are the broader of the datasets. The pink levels (only one is visible and it is on the left at a 98.88% retracement) are specific to waves which are Minute wave 5 in Minor wave 5, in Intermediate wave 1, inside Primary wave 1. This particular level indicates there have been occasions where wave 5 ends prior to go beneath wave 3’s bottom which is a significant possibility here. The models strongly favor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading but should only last 2 hours at most. My forecast would be a gap down to open with the bottom between 4450-4462. Intermediate wave 2 should begin after this point and lead the market upward for the rest of the day. I will crunch the data tomorrow once Intermediate wave 1 is confirmed to have ended, but Intermediate wave 2 will now retrace the drop performed by Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 levels are temporarily plotted and could see the market reach a peak between 4530-4560 by sometime early to the middle of next week. Intermediate wave 2 does not require a large boost and if it really takes 4-6 days to climb less than 100 points it could mean minimal gains over the coming days. The inflation report could also cause a large gain at first which would be wave A up inside of Intermediate 2. The reality of the data being delayed and folks considering the rising fuel costs could bring the market down again in the wave B down portion of Intermediate wave 2 and the final wave C leg up could get us to the target top. The CPI number on Thursday will likely assist in boosting the market up, however, the inflation data is for July and fuel prices have gone up significantly since the end of July which is not likely factored into the CPI number or the prices of goods moving forward. I figure the rising fuel costs alone will add to the downfall that is in the making again. The rise in the price of goods likely will not hit the inflation numbers for at least another month.
CBOE:SPX
by StockSignaler
3
Start Low, Run High On WednesdayLooks like the bottom is on track for early tomorrow Minute wave 5 should end tomorrow morning simultaneously ending Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C. Minute wave 1 was only 3 hours long, and Minute wave 3 was only 2 hours long. This would mean Minute wave 5 should be 2 hours or less in duration. The quickest way to the bottom in only 2 hours is another gap down at the open. Right now, the models are not projecting a drastic bottom and they pretty much align with the initial projection for Minor wave 5 the other day which can be seen here where strongest model agreement had Minor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading tomorrow: The originally forecast bottoms for Minor wave 5 are in the center of the chart above and the newest levels projecting the end of Minute wave 5 are toward the left. The light blue levels for each are based on the most specific dataset relationally consistent with the current wave. The yellow levels are slightly less specific and the white levels are the broader of the datasets. The pink levels (only one is visible and it is on the left at a 98.88% retracement) are specific to waves which are Minute wave 5 in Minor wave 5, in Intermediate wave 1, inside Primary wave 1. This particular level indicates there have been occasions where wave 5 ends prior to go beneath wave 3’s bottom which is a significant possibility here. The models strongly favor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading but should only last 2 hours at most. My forecast would be a gap down to open with the bottom between 4450-4462. Intermediate wave 2 should begin after this point and lead the market upward for the rest of the day. I will crunch the data tomorrow once Intermediate wave 1 is confirmed to have ended, but Intermediate wave 2 will now retrace the drop performed by Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 levels are temporarily plotted and could see the market reach a peak between 4530-4560 by sometime early to the middle of next week. Intermediate wave 2 does not require a large boost and if it really takes 4-6 days to climb less than 100 points it could mean minimal gains over the coming days. The inflation report could also cause a large gain at first which would be wave A up inside of Intermediate 2. The reality of the data being delayed and folks considering the rising fuel costs could bring the market down again in the wave B down portion of Intermediate wave 2 and the final wave C leg up could get us to the target top. The CPI number on Thursday will likely assist in boosting the market up, however, the inflation data is for July and fuel prices have gone up significantly since the end of July which is not likely factored into the CPI number or the prices of goods moving forward. I figure the rising fuel costs alone will add to the downfall that is in the making again. The rise in the price of goods likely will not hit the inflation numbers for at least another month.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Weekly Update: Are we Headed for Bad Times?I have been on Trading View for almost a year now. In that timeframe I have been fortunate enough to have almost 2,600 people who follow my work, shared almost 700 ideas within that community, and founded my website for paying members. Yesterday, we held a training / education Zoom call and dissected the move up off the October low of 3502. The purpose of this call was to strictly adhere to EWT rules & guidelines as we went through the chart literally day by day. The quick version of the outcome of that call was we have topped in the primary B countertrend rally. This conclusion was reached largely because of 2 major areas of focus from the October 2022 lows. The initial pattern, and the final impulsive portion of the pattern from March until the recent highs. Now I know most people may find this hard to accept. I fully expect the comments section to be lively but the notion of the initial portion of the pattern started off as a leading diagonal, is just plain wrong . Please allow me to explain. In preparation for this training, I spent time putting together my deck of slides, with an agenda to refer back to the live chart. As I went through the pattern and spotted what some Elliottitions would consider a leading diagonal off the 3502 bottom, I decided to spend some time researching Leading Diagonals. The reason being the theme of the call was the proper application of EWT rules and guidelines. So I wanted to be sure I was not assuming when I applied rules associated with ending diagonals to leading diagonals. What I found was eye-opening to me because I never questioned what LD’s were. Like some, I have always applied diagonals (ending or leading) as 3,3,3,3,3’s. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated this would be a series of abc’s but labeled as 1,2,3,4 and 5 with the 4 overlapping the 1. NOT SO FAST! My research turned up that although Ending Diagonals are a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern with governing rules, the larger EWT community is not 100% agreed on Leading Diagonals. Here’s an excerpt from AJ Frosts and Robert Prechter’s book, “Elliott Wave Principle”. Leading Diagonal It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, but the jury is out on a strict definition, as 5,3,5,3,5 that overlap are also accepted. These patterns were not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity. The notion of an LD is a relatively new idea that, in truth is accepted among many Elliottitions, but not all due a lack of governing rules. Well, I now have a quandary with respect to my upcoming zoom call with my membership. The entire basis of the call is the proper application of EWT Rules and or Guidelines. If there are no agreed upon rules, let alone guidelines, what do I do when the call begins and we start to examine the initial pattern off the 3502 bottom? I had already announced and scheduled the call. I decided to apply both loosely mentioned counts to this pattern (3,3,3,3,3 and 5,3,5,3,5) …and guess what? None of them apply. Not even close. You can go through the pattern yourself and what anyone is going to come away with when analyzing the initial pattern from 3502 on October 13, 2022 to the high of 4180 on December 22, 2022 is a an abc. If you have any doubts here’s the pattern zoomed in. So, based on the initial pattern being an abc...this entire move from start to finish was going to be corrective, or a countertrend advance. Trend being down. The last portion of the pattern that is impulsive starting in March 13th, 2023 until July 27th, 2023 should be labeled as following: C waves will normally terminate at the 1.618% fib extension....in which price did. Therefore, I firmly believe we have topped based on the fact that the leading diagonal may not even be a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern at worst, and at best, if it exists, has loosely based governing rules or guidelines. Lastly the impulsive portion of the pattern from March to July terminated at 1.618% of the initial pattern. I think it's a VERY VERY high probability we topped in July....and more importantly...should lead to a decline that could signify bad times ahead. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
Markets Struggling to Find a DirectionS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/08 With the Fed and Interest Rates not a burning issue anymore, with major earnings mostly in the rear view mirror, markets are struggling to find a direction and a relevant factor to latch onto. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to listless markets. Our models indicate sideways markets until this resolves in either direction. The level of 4545-4550 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4486, 4491, 4502, 4507 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4475, 4483, or 4497  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4505, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX: reversal might continueS&P 500 entered into a short correction during the previous week. The market reacted to the news that Fitch rating agency downgraded the US long-term government debt to AA+. As economists are noting, this would have an impact on higher borrowing costs for US companies, as borrowers now need to calculate with higher risk of doing business with US clients. Certainly it will have some implications to the US economy, but some analysts say that it will actually help Fed Chair Powell to finally slow down the US economy in Fed`s fight with inflation. For the US equities this was the worst weekly trading session since March. S&P 500 was down by 2.3% ending the week at level of 4.478. Whether this is a start of a rally, remains unclear as investors are currently divided on this topic. Earnings report pushed Amazon shares 8.3% higher, while Booking Holdings gained 7.9% on better than expected quarterly results. Still, investors continue to be concerned about a potential reversal of inflation, considering that average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month, and higher from market expectations. During the week S&P 500 exited from the overbought side and started a short reversal. RSI reached level of 48, indicating a potential for a further move toward the downside. Lowest weekly level was 4.473, but the peak from June at 4.400 has not been tested. This might be the next target of the index for the week ahead, with some probability that 4.000 might also be reached. A move toward the higher grounds seems unlikely based on current charts and technical analysis.
CBOE:SPX
by XBTFX
Rocky week down, up next weekThe chart holds the expected movement for the beginning of the week if we are in the final wave down of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave 4 moved nearly on target with a reversal at the maximum historically observed reversal point and ran one hour beyond the models, however it fell drastically as expected. That idea can be viewed here: I initially believed the end of Intermediate wave 1 could have been completed on Friday with the rate of the drop. However, the historical data is pointing to a new low still to come. The models right now are pointing to the bottom as late as Friday, but most models are pointing to Wednesday. The levels are outlined on the chart above. The most specific historical wave sets are the light blue levels based on waves ending in C115. and most likely contain the bottom’s location. The next set of data is based on slightly broader historical waves ending in 115 and are yellow. The broadest data levels are the white lines. The markets could drop a little further to open on Monday are begin moving upward right away which would likely plant Minute wave 1 as the low from late Friday. Regardless, the index will likely move up to or toward a high on Monday to complete Minute wave 2. Minute wave 3 down could begin later on Monday and lead to a 50-point loss bottoming out on Tuesday. Minute wave 4 will likely be a quick jog (1-3 hours) upward late on Tuesday or even ending early Wednesday and the final bottom could occur on Wednesday. The end Minute wave 5/Minor wave 5/Intermediate wave 1 will likely be between 4420-4450. My expectations are in the 4430-4400 area. After Intermediate wave 1 is completed. The market should move up for at least 3-6 days putting a top somewhere into next week (August 14-17) but further analysis will follow.
CBOE:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Rocky week down, up next weekThe chart holds the expected movement for the beginning of the week if we are in the final wave down of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave 4 moved nearly on target with a reversal at the maximum historically observed reversal point and ran one hour beyond the models, however it fell drastically as expected. That idea can be viewed here: I initially believed the end of Intermediate wave 1 could have been completed on Friday with the rate of the drop. However, the historical data is pointing to a new low still to come. The models right now are pointing to the bottom as late as Friday, but most models are pointing to Wednesday. The levels are outlined on the chart above. The most specific historical wave sets are the light blue levels based on waves ending in C115. and most likely contain the bottom’s location. The next set of data is based on slightly broader historical waves ending in 115 and are yellow. The broadest data levels are the white lines. The markets could drop a little further to open on Monday are begin moving upward right away which would likely plant Minute wave 1 as the low from late Friday. Regardless, the index will likely move up to or toward a high on Monday to complete Minute wave 2. Minute wave 3 down could begin later on Monday and lead to a 50-point loss bottoming out on Tuesday. Minute wave 4 will likely be a quick jog (1-3 hours) upward late on Tuesday or even ending early Wednesday and the final bottom could occur on Wednesday. The end Minute wave 5/Minor wave 5/Intermediate wave 1 will likely be between 4420-4450. My expectations are in the 4430-4400 area. After Intermediate wave 1 is completed. The market should move up for at least 3-6 days putting a top somewhere into next week (August 14-17) but further analysis will follow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 I NOTICED A GOOD SELL AREAOn S&P500, we have a bullish setup with the price slightly retracing in the area around 4479 after touching highs at level 4645. Currently, there is an excellent reversal zone, a sell zone, at level 4525, where the price in H1 formed a strong supply level that had a significant impact on the price in the past week. In short, I'm waiting for a retracement to that level before entering a short position, aiming for a target around 4375, which corresponds to the previous major low. Let me know what you think. Have a great weekend! Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
TSLATitle: Bullish Momentum on Tesla Shares Backed by Smart Money Analysis Description: In this Trading View idea, we delve into the analysis of Tesla shares and their recent price movement, utilizing the Smart Money concept to provide insights into the bullish momentum observed in the market. Smart Money Concept: The Smart Money concept involves analyzing the activities of institutional investors, hedge funds, and other large players in the market. These entities often have access to more comprehensive information and resources than individual retail traders, making their actions and positions crucial indicators of market sentiment. Bullish Signals: Our analysis reveals several compelling bullish signals for Tesla shares: Considerations: While the Smart Money concept and other indicators suggest a bullish stance, it's important to remain vigilant and consider potential risks. Conclusion: Incorporating Smart Money analysis into our assessment of Tesla shares reveals a compelling case for a bullish outlook. However, traders should exercise caution, conduct their own research, and manage risk effectively before making investment decisions. As always, market conditions can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay informed and adaptable.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Asif_Brain_Waves
Trading Plans for FRI. 08/04 - The Precarious Rally Continues...S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/04 As we published in our earlier trading plans: "The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes". As we published in the wake of the US debt downgrade: "There is a potential for sudden spikes up to squeeze the shorts in the near term. Might be risky to stay short while the index is above 4500", the 4500 support level has held and the index survived any potential downfall from the US debt downgrade. At least, for now. The level of 4545-4550 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4550, 4532, 4520, 4506, or 4491 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4528, 4516, 4502, or 4487 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4537, and explicit short exits on a break above 4537 (same level). Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models carried a short overnight, with an entry of 4509.90 and a short exit at 4516 (or, the equivalent in ES futures after hours). The short exit level was hit overnight closing the short at a deemed level of 4516 for a loss of 6.10 index points. For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Early High on Friday Followed By New Weekly Low Tomorrow?If we are in Intermediate wave 1 down, we are likely near the end of Minor wave 4 up. Here is confirmation of wave 3 of 3 with the pink bars aligning in the bottom indicator at Minute wave 3 (green) inside of Minor wave 3 (yellow): There is a chance Minor wave 4 up has finished and was only 2 hours long. While the other likely option and one pursued in this chart is that Minute wave B has likely finished or could finish near the open. If Minute wave B ended with the low from August 3rd, then wave C will likely conclude within the first 3 hours of trading on August 4th. Strongest model agreement has wave 4 lasting 6 hours which would mean the top occurs within the first hour of trading. Secondary and tertiary models point to a likely maximum length of 8 hours (the third hour of trading on August 4th). The possible reversal levels are based on the following datasets in order from most specific to current wave location to more broad datasets. Light Blue levels are possible locations of market top tomorrow Yellow is slightly less specific than light blue White is most broad dataset The muted pink color represents specific data for Minute wave 4s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 1s. Basically the high tomorrow will occur within the first or second hour of trading and not go above 4550. Most conservative zone for the top is between 4524-4536. If the high from August 3rd is not surpassed on August 4th, the market will likely head down (and is already) into the final wave 5 of Intermediate wave 1. Initial loose projection is for this near-term market bottom to occur next week. Once confirmation of Minor wave 4's endpoint is recorded, Minor wave 5 will be projected.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6