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Sp500short

SPX did everything as per the plan, Where to now?I posted this chart just last week as part of my Major short setup going back weeks. Link to previous post in the description, please go through that setup to get the context. This is going to be a short post, since everything is going as per the plan we just have to wait and watch, Price back to where I expect either a break below or bounce to continue higher. So as per the plan If it's going to bounce now, I have highlighted two 30 mins demand zones. where I expect a bounce. Those two zones are also confluent with 0.786 and 0.886 fibs of the retracements. Apart from this chart it pretty is self-explanatory. Boost this post and leave me comment for any questions on this I'd be happy to explain.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
Remaining on course if Wednesday is redHere is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart is the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 4330 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 4356. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 4372.61, 4654.45, and 3rd quartile at 4326.75. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 4370.16, median at 4352.58, and the third quartile was near 4328. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 4240 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 4330. A drop to 4330 tomorrow would only be a 1.3% loss. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go further. For now I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 4395 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 4400 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 4418.59 would place use back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SPX Further Downside Incoming (1D)SPX Daily Price Chart After the recent bounce of the level of resistance (Red Box) the SPX snapped it's first small level of resistance (Teal Dotted) and has continued lower. Price has also closed below the 50-day EMA while the 12-day and 26-day have recently crossed and the 50-day flattens out. The next level of support (First Green Box) should come into play within the next several days, unless we get a big sell-off Friday and hit it today, but this is the first area we expect to see a bounce. Also notable is the minor trend line (Yellow Dotted) that has been broken which should lead price action to eventually come in contact with it's major trend line (Yellow Solid) again. Relative Strength Not a lot to show here, however there have been two significant moves. First is the rejection of the 50 level (Aqua Circle) and the second is the break below (Aqua Highlighter) the major trend line (Yellow Solid). Both of these moves fortify the recent price action and indicate further weakness in trend. On Balance Volume OBV broke out of it's downward trend back in May (Yellow Solid) and started trading in an upward channel after. There hasn't been a reversal formation, but there is a small breakout forming (Aqua Highlighter) that coincides with recent price action and RSI movement. More evidence of an upcoming bounce is seen as a level of resistance is also being approached (Red Solid) TLDR; Dang man, talkin' bout no time man, dang ol' markets bleedin' man, come on up or dang ol' down man. Uh.. yea.. We think we understood that. Anyway.. Price action is on it's way down to a small level of resistance where we could see a bounce. RSI has bounced down off the 50 level and has broken down from it's main trend line; signaling a move lower. OBV has just begun to move down out of it's upward channel and also faces a level of resistance that could lead to bounce. What Seems Legit? A bit more of lower movement to hit the levels of resistance outlined above, then further downside Chart Key Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line Yellow Dashed = Minor Trend Line Red Solid = Major Support or Resistance Red Box = Resistance Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas Teal Dotted = Small Level of Resistance Aqua Highlighter = RSI / OBV Breakouts
SP:SPXShort
by Seems_Legit_Research
Where to from here on SPXI posted this chart few weeks ago as a follwup to my short to show few possible paths SPX is going to take after it begins the descent and SPX has followed the one where I explained about a possible break of the channel into the deviation below. please refer links below the description to look at my previous posts on SPX short idea. The only difference is that , this happened bit slowly than I anticipated , which makes this drop out of the channel less likely to be a deviation now. As you can see we are bouncing from the Suupport zone as I had highlighed in my previous post. Which brings us to the question where to from here. On The Daily TF we have first hints of a reversal or a decent size bounce from here , We have bounced from a key support and ended the day with right candle stick on the daily, but we need one more day of price action to confirm the reversal. If we get another green day without breachnig the low we are likely to head up. But If we zoom in to 4h TF things become clearer. Lets Look at the follwing chart: On Friday we broke structure to the upside on 4h and created a strong low at 4336. That number is not random , Will cover this in the next chart. If we get a pull back and break higher than fridays high we will get a full Change of trend on 4h TF. Once we do we should be able to break all the 4h strong highs until we meet the Daily Strong high at 4502 which is what I think will be hard to break and we will get a strong rejection from there. From there we can do one of the two things , either come back down create a double bottom and try again to break the daily high at 4500 and continue higher. If not we will continue the daily trend by breaking 4336 low and head lower. Now lets look at why price bounced from 4336. Following chart has the answer. If you know VPA , then you know price moves in ranges , just like candle stick patterns are fractles , Ranges can act like fractles as well. In the chart you can see There are 3 ranges R1 , R2 and R3 that formed on this uptrend. R3 is the larger range that encompasses R1 and R2 and 4336 is the VAL of this bigger range and as Per VPA theory , price in a range keeps roughly bouncing between VAH and VAL of the ranges .If you look at the VAH of R3 it concides precisely with the Daily strong high at 4500 which gives us another conflunece for a rejection there into the Daily OB shown in previous chart. Finaly if throw regular old fibs and Gann Fan into the mix we get additional confluence for a rejection at the 4475-4500 region as shown in the chart below. 4475 rehion is a gann resistance and 4475-4500 0.5 to 0.618 region of the retracement. Speculation: If we do get a move like the one I have explained , i.e move to 4500 area and reject , we will have few pattern emerge like inverse H & S and cup and handle . I have highlighted the targets if they mature. But always remember all these patterns are pure manipulation to trap retails , it totally possible that there is a fakeout into the pattern where pa comes to lower 4300s and then reverses from there can creating yet another pattern a Double bottom so be careful , only trade confirmations based on market structure change. Happy Trading All !!!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
1
Start up to go down on Thursday?IF Minute wave 3 (green) ended today, tomorrow could see an early morning high around 4433 before moving into more declines later. 15 and 30 minute chart triggered wave 3 of 3 and macro wave 3 signals seen here: The first signal was probable Minuette wave 3 inside of Minute wave 3. The second signal was likely the end of near the end of Minute wave 3. This would imply Minute wave 4 retracement up is next. Historical models point to Minute wave 4 likely lasting 2-4 hours which points to upward movement at the beginning of tomorrow. Minute wave 5 downward should begin after the peak and likely lead to a low beneath 4390 and possibly 4370 before the end of the week. Friday is a "nothing burger" for economic reports which could see the market end the week beginning to drift higher depending when the low below 4390 is achieved. Next week could see an early high before another low below 4350 is achieved.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD We will have choppy times ahead. Target 4600 Above 4600 Vey Low Volume The sentiment is positive 4060 is support Technically Higher Highs Lower Lows We are slowly leaving the current ange The ranges are increasing The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher. If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend. That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DaveBrascoFX
4
Which Path Will Prevail?Time to view all possibilities after a weak Friday of movement. I have developed an indicator that identifies Wave 3s, wave 3 of wave 3, and the end of corrective waves (2, 4, or B) which can be found here: . Some wave 1 and wave A ends will get a signal, but it takes other analysis to identify those points. Applying that script to the chart at the intervals below, may aid in identifying where the market is. The indicator on the chart is the second row of indicators called EW_3_v2. Here is the 10 Minute Chart: I have placed all of the locations of data from the macro waves which I will walk through. This chart shows Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 at 1050 (eastern time) on August 2. Next signal aligns with end of Minor wave 4. Next signal aligns with the probable Minuette wave 3 ending in Minute wave 1 inside of Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5 at 1500 on August 4. Next signal was likely Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 at 1550 on August 8. Next signal was Intermediate wave 2 at 1000 on August 10. The next and final apparent signal was a wave 3 ending at 1350 on August 10. This signal could be Minuette wave 3 inside Minor wave 1 possibly inside Intermediate wave 3. Next is the 15 minute chart: The first indicator of Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 from August 2 remains. Next signal is Minor wave 4 ending and the currently marked end of Intermediate wave 2 on August 10. Next is the 30 minute chart: which identifies the same points of interest and Minor wave 3 endpoint is indicate instead of the Minor wave 4 ending. I use this macro to micro to macro scale of chart viewing to confirm or identify possible points of interest. The main hourly scale only identified the end of Minor wave 3 which was the original job of my wave 3 indicator. Based on this, the main chart above outlines the 3 paths. The left chart is if we are in Intermediate wave 3. Ultimately the market should move down this week if this is the current location. The middle chart assumes we are earlier on than expected and that the low from August 11 was only the end of Intermediate wave 1. This would mean the market should move up for most of this coming week. The retracement percentiles have not changed and on the chart. Possible top target would be in the 4510-4525 area. The main issue with this theory is based on the location of signals from the 10, 15, and 30 minute charts. They do not align well if all of last week’s movement was only Minor wave 5. This is my skepticism with this chart. The right chart assumes we are in Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2. This would see the market move up early in the week but top before midday Wednesday. While this path is quite plausible and the prior target zone holds, the wave 3 indicator analysis would have placed wave 3s in the wrong location which is my skepticism for this theory. Basically, we have three potential paths this week. I will monitor to see which one plays out. I am back in sideline mode in the short-term until the path forward is clearer. Longer-term puts likely remain safe as that is the overall market direction.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Rocky week down, up next weekThe chart holds the expected movement for the beginning of the week if we are in the final wave down of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave 4 moved nearly on target with a reversal at the maximum historically observed reversal point and ran one hour beyond the models, however it fell drastically as expected. That idea can be viewed here: I initially believed the end of Intermediate wave 1 could have been completed on Friday with the rate of the drop. However, the historical data is pointing to a new low still to come. The models right now are pointing to the bottom as late as Friday, but most models are pointing to Wednesday. The levels are outlined on the chart above. The most specific historical wave sets are the light blue levels based on waves ending in C115. and most likely contain the bottom’s location. The next set of data is based on slightly broader historical waves ending in 115 and are yellow. The broadest data levels are the white lines. The markets could drop a little further to open on Monday are begin moving upward right away which would likely plant Minute wave 1 as the low from late Friday. Regardless, the index will likely move up to or toward a high on Monday to complete Minute wave 2. Minute wave 3 down could begin later on Monday and lead to a 50-point loss bottoming out on Tuesday. Minute wave 4 will likely be a quick jog (1-3 hours) upward late on Tuesday or even ending early Wednesday and the final bottom could occur on Wednesday. The end Minute wave 5/Minor wave 5/Intermediate wave 1 will likely be between 4420-4450. My expectations are in the 4430-4400 area. After Intermediate wave 1 is completed. The market should move up for at least 3-6 days putting a top somewhere into next week (August 14-17) but further analysis will follow.
CBOE:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Rocky week down, up next weekThe chart holds the expected movement for the beginning of the week if we are in the final wave down of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave 4 moved nearly on target with a reversal at the maximum historically observed reversal point and ran one hour beyond the models, however it fell drastically as expected. That idea can be viewed here: I initially believed the end of Intermediate wave 1 could have been completed on Friday with the rate of the drop. However, the historical data is pointing to a new low still to come. The models right now are pointing to the bottom as late as Friday, but most models are pointing to Wednesday. The levels are outlined on the chart above. The most specific historical wave sets are the light blue levels based on waves ending in C115. and most likely contain the bottom’s location. The next set of data is based on slightly broader historical waves ending in 115 and are yellow. The broadest data levels are the white lines. The markets could drop a little further to open on Monday are begin moving upward right away which would likely plant Minute wave 1 as the low from late Friday. Regardless, the index will likely move up to or toward a high on Monday to complete Minute wave 2. Minute wave 3 down could begin later on Monday and lead to a 50-point loss bottoming out on Tuesday. Minute wave 4 will likely be a quick jog (1-3 hours) upward late on Tuesday or even ending early Wednesday and the final bottom could occur on Wednesday. The end Minute wave 5/Minor wave 5/Intermediate wave 1 will likely be between 4420-4450. My expectations are in the 4430-4400 area. After Intermediate wave 1 is completed. The market should move up for at least 3-6 days putting a top somewhere into next week (August 14-17) but further analysis will follow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Early High on Friday Followed By New Weekly Low Tomorrow?If we are in Intermediate wave 1 down, we are likely near the end of Minor wave 4 up. Here is confirmation of wave 3 of 3 with the pink bars aligning in the bottom indicator at Minute wave 3 (green) inside of Minor wave 3 (yellow): There is a chance Minor wave 4 up has finished and was only 2 hours long. While the other likely option and one pursued in this chart is that Minute wave B has likely finished or could finish near the open. If Minute wave B ended with the low from August 3rd, then wave C will likely conclude within the first 3 hours of trading on August 4th. Strongest model agreement has wave 4 lasting 6 hours which would mean the top occurs within the first hour of trading. Secondary and tertiary models point to a likely maximum length of 8 hours (the third hour of trading on August 4th). The possible reversal levels are based on the following datasets in order from most specific to current wave location to more broad datasets. Light Blue levels are possible locations of market top tomorrow Yellow is slightly less specific than light blue White is most broad dataset The muted pink color represents specific data for Minute wave 4s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 1s. Basically the high tomorrow will occur within the first or second hour of trading and not go above 4550. Most conservative zone for the top is between 4524-4536. If the high from August 3rd is not surpassed on August 4th, the market will likely head down (and is already) into the final wave 5 of Intermediate wave 1. Initial loose projection is for this near-term market bottom to occur next week. Once confirmation of Minor wave 4's endpoint is recorded, Minor wave 5 will be projected.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6
If the top is in, we find the bottomStill awaiting additional price confirmation we are in Cycle wave C downward, but here is the current forecast if the current market top holds. My hourly program generated the usual waypoints based on historical data. Interestingly enough, Cycle wave A (the downward period between January – October 2022 was 1365 trading hours. Not to be outdone, Cycle wave B upward (October 2022 to July 2023) was 1366 trading hours. A common ABC relationship at times is the length of A plus the length of B equaling the length of wave C. I have outlined the most common lengths the program agreed on regarding the length of cycle wave C and placed them vertically on the chart. Of course 2731 hours is one of those values which could place the possible bottom as late as February 2025. The market bottoms based on most specific dataset to the current wave structure are the light blue levels, next slightly broader dataset produced the yellow levels, and the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C are the white levels. Based on these potential lengths and overall movements, I determined where Primary wave 1 should bottom based on historical data and each yellow outlined boxed represents these factors. I generally do not trade too much during the first wave, but instead allow the first wave to finish and then begin buying and selling based on the finalized data and historical relationships for expected movement. If Cycle wave C is 910 trading hours long, then the smallest box would likely contain the location of Primary wave 1’s bottom. The left side of this rectangle is the minimum length of time based on historical Primary wave 1 data and therefore the timeframe that wave 1 would likely reach at a minimum. The right side of this rectangle represents the third quartile of historical movement and therefore a possible maximum timeframe for wave 1’s bottom to occur. The additional boxes do the same regarding left and right bounds and all boxes correlate with the next duration in order (i.e. if the overall length is 1366 hours, the bottom should occur between the left and right bounds of the next largest rectangle). Rectangles were created for 910, 1366, 1821, 2047, 2731, and 3415 trading hours. The top and bottoms of the box relate to the potential market bottoms for the bear market. The top of the smallest box relates to the minimum historical movement if the market bottom is at 3328.09. The bottom of this same box relates to the third quartile of historical data for 3328.09. If the bottom ends between the top and bottom of this box, the market bottom could be around 3328.09. The tops and bottoms of the next box are related to an overall market bottom around 3271.95. Rectangles were created for market bottoms of 3328.09, 3271.95, 3183.44, 2972.71, 2878.89, and 2733.44. What does all this mean? Once Primary wave 1 ends, the bottom should fall in one of these boxes. We could use the endpoint to potentially rule out what the duration and bottoms WILL NOT be for this bear market. If the bottom of Primary wave 1 falls in the small rectangle which overlaps all rectangles, nothing can be ruled out yet. Additionally, the bottom of Primary wave 1 should get below 4300 at the very least, considering the market is above 4500 today, we are looking for at least a 200 point drop over the next few weeks. My initial projection for the market bottom from last July was around 2400 by March 2025. Based on all the completed data to this point, I am looking for a bottom sooner and likely in the middle of the fall of 2024. The bottom should not be as deep as originally forecasted either, and my initial call is likely no lower than 2700, but likely below 2900. So far it looks like the country’s credit rating was the first of many dominos to fall over the next year as the market moves lower. I still think a China v. Taiwan situation could do the most damage, but we shall see what happens. Oil prices have been creeping up as well over the past month and the inflated costs of goods have not begun to take form yet. Companies will be refinancing their debts at higher and higher levels moving forward and nowhere near enough companies have failed yet. Big ones will fall, and best guess as at least 4 big names go down before the market is done moving down.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Market Tops Tomorrow?The index never dropped today, which points to the second thesis that we were already in the final Minor wave 5 upward. The SP:SPX is not clear on position and waves, however, the futures are much clearer. This 15 minute chart outlines the possible Minor wave 4 path from start to finish along with current position in Minor wave 5. The bottom for the market was the low from July 20th. This means wave 5 is 2 days old and tomorrow is day 3. Typically wave 5 should move beyond prior wave 3 endpoints. In this case, if Minute wave 3 is in the books (green iii on chart), the market should move above that prior high (July 24) and the prior high established from Minor wave 3 (yellow 3) from July 19. Tomorrow could be a big day of moves with a possible top during the day or on Wednesday pre-Federal Reserve. Assuming we have completed at least Minute wave 3 with the high from July 24, Minute wave 4 could do the following based on hourly data. Based on waves ending in C554, the movement retracement quartiles are 29%, 38.94%, and 60.85%. Models agree the most with Minute wave 4 lasting 1 or 2 hours. Second agreement is at 3 or 4 hours, third is 0 hours, fourth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 554, the quartile retracements are 19.68%, 41.47%, and 53.75%. Strongest model agreement has the wave lasting 1 hour (117 models), with second most agreement at 2 hours (91 models), third place is drastically weaker at 0 hours (68 models), and the models are even weaker with 18 of them at 6 hours, 17 at 3 hours, and 16 at 5 hours. Based on waves ending in 54, the quartiles are at 23.17%, 36.355% and 54.07%. Length is 1 hour (581 models), 2 hours (411 models), 0 hours (379), 3 hours (111), 4 hours (95), 6 hours (90). Based on historical data for Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5, Minute wave 4 retracement quartiles are 19.53%, 42.535%, and 43.14%. Duration is strongest at 1 hour, then 2 hours, and then 5 hours. The chart currently has Minute wave 4 at 1 hour long and the retracement is near the third quartile or further end of historical data. This could mean Minute wave 4 has already been completed. Furthermore, Minute wave 5 is already 1 hour old. Another factor to note is the length of Minute wave 1 was 6 hours and Minute wave 3 was only 5 hours. A major rule of this wave theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest in length. This would require Minute wave 5 (already being 1 hour old) should not be longer than 5 hours total. However, during studies of micro waves this rule has been broken multiple times and may not be a limiting factor in the current instance. There is still a chance the market drops in the first hour of trading below the current Minute wave 4 low of 4547.47 in which case the data in the next paragraph is an hour later than it is stated. Regardless, tomorrow is lining up for the market top. What does the historical data indicate could happen assuming Minute wave 4 has completed? Based on waves ending in C555, the quartile movement extensions are 121.06%, 134.44%, and 171.99%. Models agree the most at 2 hours long, secondary is 1 hour long, third is 5 hours long (possible max based on rule wave 3 cannot be shortest), fourth is 4 hours, fifth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 555, the quartile movement extensions are 118.44%, 130.21%, and 159.05%. Model agreements for lengths are 1 hour (114 models), 2 hours (96), 3 hours (60), 5 hours (38), 4 hours (34), 0 hours (28), 7 hours (20). Based on waves ending in 55, the quartile extensions are 113.1%, 126.06%, and 154.92%. The forecasted lengths are 1 hour (626 models), 2 hours (494 models), 3 hours (230), 4 hours (185), 5 hours (174), 0 hours (161), and 6 hours (142). The final dataset is for Minute wave 5s inside of Minor wave 5s, inside of Intermediate wave 5s where the extension quartiles are 106.40%, 121.955%, and 152.06%. Modelled duration is 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, and 6 hours. The levels for Minor wave 5 are the right most items on the chart above. If Historical data holds true, we may barely make it to 4578 (the current high from Minor wave 3), and north of 4585 does not look possible. After the close are big tech earnings which normally have a bullish push into it. We shall see what happens. If tomorrow is not the top and/or Minute wave 4 or Minor wave 4 decide to return to life, I will analyze more tomorrow night.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Time To Drop After Tuesday's Nice Pop?Assuming we are early into the long trip downward would put us somewhere in the early stages of Cycle wave C down, Primary wave 1 down, Intermediate wave 2 up. This would have made Intermediate wave 1 down 5 trading days long with a 120.39 point drop. Based on waves ending in C12, Intermediate wave 2 will last 1 day. There are zero other possible lengths. The quartile movements (blue levels on left) are 27.99%, 50.12%, and 56.51%. Based on waves ending in 12, strongest model agreement for length remains at 1 trading day and second strongest by a lot is 2 trading days. Quartile retracement levels (yellow lines) are at 27.99%, 42.03%, and 66.20%. Tuesday was the first official trading day of Intermediate wave 2. This is quite possibly the only trading day of wave 2. IF wave 2 achieves a new high tomorrow, Thursday would likely not see a new high for a very long time until we drop well below 4328 again. IF a new high is achieved tomorrow it may remain at or under 4400. IF we break above 4400 tomorrow, we may still be BACK in Cycle wave B as was identified in my most recent Devil’s Advocate Analysis. IF back in, well still in B, the market is either in the final Intermediate wave 4 Minor wave B up or the early stages of Intermediate wave 5 which would likely lead to a final market top within 2 weeks. If no new high is achieved and the market falls (likely based on all the Bank of England/Central Bank/Federal Reserve panels in Portugal) the market is in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3 down. This scenario would have seen Intermediate wave 2 last a single day and retrace 46.8% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. Based on waves ending in C13, the quartile movement extensions of wave 1’s movement (blue levels farther on right) are 135.64%, 140.60%, and 165.83%. Most model agree on a length of 4-6 days, with secondary agreement at 7, 8, or 10 trading days long. Based on waves ending in 13, the quartile movement extensions (yellow) are 137.30%, 162.265%, and 198.02%. Models have strongest agreement on length at 5 days long, second is 1 or 4 days, third most agreement is 3 days, fourth is 7 days, fifth is 6 days, sixth is 2 or 10 days. Based on these models, the initial forecast is a possible market low late next week after the American holiday possibly below 4279 and probably not below 4240. This would equate to a drop of around 120 points in about 6 trading days. This is pretty much the same thing accomplished by Intermediate wave 1. Let us see how this plays out beginning with movement tomorrow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SP500 Bearish ScenarioThe #SP500 diverged 61% from the trend it had referenced since 1940. When we look at such divergences in history, we see that the index has returned to the reference trend. The beginning of this reversal is usually confirmed by a close below the SMA9 on the 3-month timeframe. This level is currently displayed as $4174. In a possible bear scenario, EMA60 or $2651 will guide us for the priority return level. Finally, EMA120, which is already at the same level as the reference trend level, will act as the last support. In addition, looking at the SP500 index in the daily time frame, the McClellan Oscillator, which has been working very successfully since 1900s, turned negative last week. However, another factor that can contribute to my analysis is that the monetary and fiscal policies made by HSBC today are not compatible with the bond and stock markets, and that the current recession will go further.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
Bottom targets if moving downBased on the theory the market has topped, the following is what we should roughly see next. There is still a chance Cycle B is not completed and I will outline what that could look like later this week or next. A few of those theories have us in only Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave C of Cycle wave B up with the next possible market top around 4631. However, Intermediate wave 4 would bottom no lower than 4387, which it did on June 20th. Another theory for a long and drawn up Supercycle wave 2 would put the market in Intermediate wave 2 up in the early stages of Primary wave A down. This would be the case if Supercycle wave 2 were to trickle downward for 5+ years. For now we will stick with the beginning of Cycle wave C down. Position: Submillennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle 5, Supercycle 2, Cycle C, Primary A Heading: Downward Shorthand wave reference: 152CA. Cycle was C will also end Supercycle wave 2 so we will forecast what wave 2 could do based on the completion of Supercycle wave 1 and the relational history of waves ending in 152. I have Supercycle wave 1 beginning in March 2009 and ending January 2022. This saw the market gain 4,151.83 points over 3,252 trading days for a rise over run of 1.277. Based on these figures and waves ending in 152, Supercycle wave 2 could retrace the total points at the following quartile levels (light blue lines in the chart below). The first quartile of all movement would be at 25.37%, the median movement of all historical data is 45.71%, while the third quartile of historical retracements is at 75.67%. Based on the same wave data, the most model agreement is in Supercycle wave 2 lasting 1,626 trading days. Second most model agreement is on 4,878 trading days, while third is a large tie at 469, 813, 929, 976, 1,084, and 1,158 trading days. Based on a broader dataset for waves ending in 52, the movement quartiles (yellow levels below) are 33.43%, 50.17%, & 68.96%. The models agree the most on a length of 1,626 trading days in length, second is 3,252, third is 813, fourth is 1,084, fifth is a tie at 542, 765, 929, & 1,445. A general point of reference for those dates is: 469: November 15, 2023 765: January 20, 2025 813: March 27, 2025 929: September 1, 2025 976: November 10, 2025 1084: April 6, 2026 1158: July 20, 2026 1626: May 8, 2028 4878: October 1, 2040 On very rare occasions, a macro wave 2 exceeds the length of the preceding wave 1. This would likely take anything over 3,252 days off the table. Macro second waves tend to retrace between 38.6%-57.43% of the prior wave 1’s movement. This would place the bottom between 2434.22-3216.01. Here is the chart solely based on Supercycle wave 1’s data: My initial forecast would place the market bottom around 2740 by mid-September 2024. All retracement levels are on the main chart with labels on the right side. ========+++++++++++========+++++++++++======== Here are the stats using the data from completed Cycle wave A and possible completion of Cycle wave B: Wave A lost 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days for a rise over run of 6.805. Wave B gained 956.89 points over 168 trading days for a rise over run of 5.696. This was 86.15% of the duration of wave A and a 72.11% retracement of wave A’s movement. Based on waves ending in 152C, Cycle wave C could extend the following quartile levels (light blue labels on left side of main chart) of Cycle wave A’s movement—93.53%, 126.25%, & 139.10%. Of note, the longest historical movement extension was only 149.86% of wave A’s movement. The models do not show strong agreement on any lengths, however, a grouping between 312-336 trading days was noted. Based on a slightly broader set of data for waves ending in 52C, quartile levels (yellow lines) are 96.12%, 138.69%, & 144.22%. Once again, the maximum extension is 149.86%. The models agree on duration of 195, 224, and 336 trading days. There are zero levels of secondary model agreement, however, there is large grouping between 106-130 and other groupings at 162-168, 312-317, and 390-392. Lastly, based on the broadest dataset is waves ending in 2C. The quartile levels (white lines) are 109.83%, 132.02%, & 154.44%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 168 and 195 trading days, secondary agreement at 98 days, third at 224, 292, and 390. The days for reference are: 98: November 6, 2023 112: November 27, 2023 168: February 16, 2024 195: March 27, 2024 224: May 8, 2024 292: August 15, 2024 312: Friday, September 13, 2024 336: October 17, 2024 390: January 3, 2025 These ranges introduce many possibilities. There is a downward trendline that had been providing resistance during Cycle wave A, that may provide resistance during the next downtrend. After reviewing all of the above data and finding intersection points with the trendline I am monitoring the following targets for now. If the bottom is November 27, 2023, the target may be around 3361. If the bottom is May 8, 2024, the target could be 2972.71. The targets thereafter are beyond the 149.86% threshold which has proven consistent thus far. A breach is always possible which would open the door to more targets of 2769 by August 15, 2024 and 2735 by September 13, 2024. The other targets lack intersection at this time. These are the initial estimates moving forward and continuing under the assumption the market has indeed topped at 4448. I will later map out the 5 wave structure to these bottoms to see which ones line up with current movement and additionally identify where we could move if we break above 4448 within the next 15 trading days. The best confirmation right now of us being in Cycle wave C and the final downward slope would be a break below 4048.28 before a move above 4448.47. The first level broken will confirm the next step.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Is tomorrow the day we predicted last year to be the market top?FOR THE FULL ANALYTICAL RIGOR THAT IS WORTH READING START HERE (otherwise skip to the section titled if you only care about the future “START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP”) It has been a long year since we got the program working, calculating probabilities, and identifying where we likely were in time. Sometime early 2022, I realized what would happen if we took all S&P 500 price data, applied structured Elliott Wave Theory to it, identified the relationships between all macro and micro wave structures, and determined our current location in time to forecast future movement. By early July 2022, I realized if we completed SubMillennial wave 1--Grand Supercycle 5--Supercycle 1 in January 2022, then I could take prior wave relationships to forecast the 3 waves inside of Supercycle 2 based on the data from Supercycle wave 1. This forecast can be found here: It forecasted the bottom of the first wave down (Cycle wave A) to end around October 18, 2022, the top of the second wave up (Cycle wave B) to end around mid-July 2023, and the final bottom (Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2) likely in the first quarter of 2025. I would update my program every time I believed waves completed and re-calculate these points and the movement over the next few weeks to months. Feel free to head to my profile to view all ideas. A few reversal points did occur earlier or later than forecasted at higher and lower levels, but I learned the original forecasts were normally the most accurate. One of the key places I rushed a forecast was as we got closer to October 18th I had the bottom occurring later in the October or closer to November. This August 20, 2022 analysis had the levels and days for the bottom spot on, but I temporarily went a different way. The relational data was proving more and more accurate. The actual bottom in October was on the 13th instead of the first forecast of the 18th. I finally accepted the bottom by December 5, 2022, once I went back to review my older analysis. From there the program continued to call waves out well, with Primary wave A happening lower than expected but on the date as seen in the December 5th analysis above. Primary wave B was long and the internal wave C never broke below the initial wave A which was confusing, however Primary wave B was forecasted on December 6th to occur in the middle of March and sure enough it occurred on March 13, 2023 as seen below: But after this original forecasting from the program I continued to attempt to find Primary B in many places after a traditional ABC wave down which never came. Finally by March 2, I reviewed my original analysis and updated Primary wave B to end around March 14 and it ended March 13 as seen here: Upon completion of Primary wave B, I forecasted the market top and end of Primary wave C. The forecasted date was June 16th no higher than 4403.88 as seen here: After the completion of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 1, I updated the market top to June 20th, based on Intermediate wave 1 likely lasting longer than initially expected when Minor wave 1 ran long as seen here: At this time I loosely placed Intermediate waves 1-5 in their projected locations as well. The market top was re-adjusted again back to June 16th on April 9th as seen here: Intermediate wave 2 was forecasted on April 17th as was spot on on April 26th here: Intermediate wave 3 was much longer than expected after gaining 33% of the expected gain in the first day followed by being slow and trading sideways at times too which is very abnormal of a wave 3. By May 7, I had backed the market top back up to July and then debt ceiling chaos broke out. With the debt ceiling resolved Intermediate wave 3 was still slowly moving. Then my program threw me for the biggest curveball I could not believe and thought it was an error. Intermediate wave 3 had finally wrapped up. All preceding waves to that point had been 12-25 days long. In my wisdom, Intermediate wave 4 would likely be in the middle of that range. The program urged it would only be 2 days AND only retrace 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. I was skeptical but went with it and said it could last 4 days. Intermediate wave 4 lasted only 3 days and after I adjusted the Fibonacci tool retracement levels, 15.06% said the bottom would be at 4261.479 as seen here: The actual bottom was 4261.07. Finally on June 8, 2023 Ziggy spits out the plan for Intermediate wave 5 as seen here: START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP The models are pointing for Intermediate wave 5 to last between 3-5 days with the likely top around 4393.93. I chose 4 days and around but not likely over 4400. After all the projections and models and recalculations over the past year we are here. Still around 4400 and back to mid-June. AND it’s Fed day with some high expectations of no hikes and word of a future cut in 2023. Elation should follow if this happens, but what else is going on. Inflation since 2021 is now around 16% and has increased every month since mid-2021. Wages for everyone have not increased even close to 16%. Mortgages are around 7%, not many people rushing to trade their 2% mortgage for a 7% mortgage now. Students with loan need to start paying the piper as they begin to accrue new interest again. Those that did not wisely save their payments and collect interest on that money over the past two years are about to give up some luxuries which means retailers and restaurants are will soon see declining sales. Chaos bound to rattle the 2024 Presidential tickets is just gaining steam with outcomes unknown. Meanwhile the VIX was at its lowest level since pre-COVID last Friday signaling complacency in an economy that continues to lay off workers. All the numbers are not moving synchronously in the proper directions which likely precedes market corrections. In this case, based on all the data, this is likely the major bear market I identified last year. I can always be wrong, or we can go up a little higher before correcting. But I have learned my lesson to trust the original analysis and that says the top is in. It would be smart to not repeat 2008 and watch your retirement accounts and 401Ks plummet 50% when you have the opportunity to do something about it today. Maybe move to cash or something with less exposure to major companies and indices or the G Fund for you government employees. You may not make much money and can always switch it up if the program is wrong, or you can save your retirement and sit out of the market for 14-18 months until we find the bottom. While others begin recovering and realize they need to pick up a second job or leave retirement for work again (Tom Brady might not mind) to survive, you could then ride the next major bull market up. Follow me if you would like to see where the models take us moving forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
$DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average Not Confirming The RunIf you wanted to know whether or not the market was on a bull run or not, all you had to do was look at the Dow Jones Transportation Average or even AMEX:RSP (which definitely does not fit the bull market, showing that overall the S&P 500 has barely broken 15% gain since October). More important though is the transportation average breaking off from the rally ahead of the rest of the market. When transportation is leading us lower this is not a good sign for the economy. Other economic indicators support this thesis. For example, cardboard box demand is the lowest it's been since 2008. Showing signs of a decline in goods demand. For more insights on trading and investing check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Spotify and Amazon.
DJ:DJTShort
by D1Finance
QQQ: I might be wrong (Inverted Chart)I have been a staunch bear since about March. Since the lows expected a nice bounce but that we would resume the downtrend at some point. Nothing has convinced me that this market would not do anything besides have another period of pullbacks, until I inverted the QQQ today. From this perspective, I cannot help but see the very real possibility of a double top at the very least. At that point though, there is no reason we couldn't keep going and make new highs. The macro economic conditions are not ideal in the slightest but this might be the kind of bull that is largely absent retail and will say that way until we actually start to top. A bull, minus retail, is what this looks like. You are not having investors capitulate easily at all. Buyers have been positioned large and they plan on staying there for a while. Very hard to say. This is by far the hardest market to judge, that I personally have participated in. I am thinking about taking some long positions in certain companies, maybe even the Qs but I will be doing so cautiously.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Goontata84
1
Wyckoff Supply and DemandThe stock market crash of 1929, also known as the Great Crash, was a disastrous event for the American economy and marked the beginning of the Great Depression. It is highly unlikely that a similar situation will repeat itself exactly, as the lessons learned from those events have led to the implementation of policies and measures aimed at preventing such a major crisis. However, there are certain signs and contemporary economic trends that may raise concerns. For example, the high levels of public and private debt globally pose a significant challenge. Continued debt growth can lead to financial instability and restrict long-term economic growth potential. Furthermore, the performance of financial and stock markets can provide clues about the state of the global economy. During periods of strong economic growth, overheating can occur, which may lead to speculative bubbles. If these bubbles burst, significant market corrections can occur, impacting the real economy. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical instability, trade tensions, and abrupt fluctuations in commodity and raw material prices can influence the global economy and generate volatility in financial markets. To determine more precisely whether the current situation exhibits similarities to the stock market crash of 1929, a detailed analysis of multiple economic, financial, and political aspects at a global level is required. Moreover, experts and economists should further evaluate these aspects to make more accurate predictions.
FX:SPX500Short
by HoratiuBogdan