Taking a short-term view, the oil market feels delicately poised and what happens over the next 24-48 hours could be very telling for the near-term passage of play.
After a near 14% rally from the 4 June lows, which took price through the May range highs of $80.91, and after a huge bullish position adjustment in both Brent and WTI futures, we’ve seen price pull...
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“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial...
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“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial...
Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ no daily cycle
Tuesday DAY...
Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial...
Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial...
Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ No cycle started yet
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial...
Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ day 2 cycle
Tuesday DAY 2...
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“Trade setups, not movements”
Let’s jump into the Technical Analysis:
WEEKLY TEMPLATE (1hr chart):
Yesterday, Monday, the market broke through the previous...
The high on our Brent crude price has been $89.68 – hit at midday – but while our clients are long of crude (65% of open interest is held long), we’re seeing better sellers in the broader market, as we roll towards EU trade. The early rally felt reasonably orderly, but a lot of questions were being asked and without many immediate answers to obtain the certainty...
Further highs in crude have been seen in this momentum move. This time courtesy of some punchy OPEC forecasts for a 3.3m barrel p/d deficit in Q4. The IEA (International Energy Agency) are due to provide their update in the session ahead, and one can also expect a change in the forecast, given they previously pencilled in a 230k bpd deficit. $90 is the obvious...
Having reached the double top target, we see that Crude is now 15% below from its 50 day MA - in the past 2 years we've been as stretched as 17% below this average before we saw solid mean reversion kick in - we are in oversold territory and that offers an elevated risk of short covering
By way of flow, we now see 67% of open positions in crude are now held long...
The technicals in crude continue to break down as the buyers stand aside – the 26 Sept swing low looks close to being taken out at $76.61 and a break here sees $65 come into play – it does feel like these lows will be tested, so a short bias is preferred. The fact we see crude down 4% when copper is up 1% speaks to the EU price caps as the driver, over just a...
As I had mentioned earlier, this market is trading within a descending triangle and I was waiting for the daily close to decide if I was going to enter or not. Well, today's candle close was a long-tailed doji rejecting support. I am now long and looking for a potential move up to triangle resistance (about 120.000). Other important levels are 105.000 and 115.000.
In spite of the majority of the markets getting smashed, Crude seems to be holding up pretty well. Here on the daily time frame we see a descending triangle and price is testing support for the third time. I'll be watching the candle close today to confirm a potential entry long. Potential targets to the upside would be 105, 115 and 120 (which corresponds to...
Europe now gets the full attention – we’ve seen Germany’s trade surplus completely eroded, turning negative and into the first deficit since 1991 – clearly impacted by the reduction of Russian gas imports. Germany has been heavily reliant on Russian gas imports and the flow-on effect is we could be looking at gas rationing through the European winter and a...
Fed Chair Jay Powell stole the limelight in his testimony to the Senate and despite all we’ve heard pricing for the July FOMC meeting hasn’t shifted – the markets expect a further 75bp of hikes. What we have seen is solid buying in the US treasury market (2yr USTs were -14bp), while commodity markets evolve to show greater signs of recessionary fears, with copper...
