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S&P 500 (SPX500)

Major Indexes Face Downturn: What's Coming Next?◉ S&P 500 SP:SPX ● The long-term trendline support has been breached. ● The immediate support range is identified around the 5,650 to 5,700 levels. ◉ Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC ● The Nasdaq Composite has rebounded from its long-term trendline support, demonstrating resilience amid economic uncertainty. ◉ NYSE Composite TVC:NYA ● The NYSE Composite has found support at its trendline and may bounce back from this important level. ◉ Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI ● After a consecutive decline over ten days, the index has surpassed its trendline support and is approaching the next support zone between 41,500 and 42,800. Overall, all indices are anticipated to recover shortly, with expectations of robust performance from major stocks.
SP:SPXLong
by NaranjCapital
SPX: Fed`s game of marketsMarkets were happy prior to Fed's rate cut in December in expectation of an additional drop of 25 bps of reference interest rates. However, Fed Chair Powell said something that markets did not expect to hear - inflation is going to be persistent in 2025, hence, Fed would most likely cut rates by only 50 bps during the next year. The correction was immediate, and the S&P 500 dropped from the level of 6,080 down to 5.867. The index recovered a bit during Friday's trading session to the level of 5.930, after cooling inflation data. All sectors included in the S&P 500 gained on Friday, indicating that the market most probably overreacted during the previous two days. Still, this jump in the market value was not enough to cover weekly losses. A cooling inflation data for November made markets revise their initial projections and value equities at higher levels. Still, considering that the Holiday season in Western markets starts in the middle of the week ahead, it is questionable whether the S&P 500 has the strength to reach for one more time level from two weeks ago.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be. key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200 bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section. Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again. bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range. Invalidation is above 6300. short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now. medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
1
Traders BEWARE! Extreme Volatility In 2025-26. LOOK OUT!I just completed a deep dive into my Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system, and I'm here to tell you that 2025 and most of 2026 will be highly volatile. If you do not attempt to stay ahead of these market trends, you could suffer a loss of 35% to 45% (or more) over the next 18 months or more. If you want to learn how to navigate these trends, I suggest you find someone you trust to help you identify the best opportunities for your investments and trading. This is no joke. This is the type of event that destroys trader's accounts and disrupts global economies. If you are not prepared for this, get busy trying to find someone to help you. Merry Christmas. Buckle up. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period. It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally. Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate. So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies. Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios. But will 2024 follow the trend? The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor . This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia . What drives the Santa rally? Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices Will there be a Santa rally this year? Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas. Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not. The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year. Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all. Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Pandorra
3
Critical Levels in S&P 500 Index this weekNavigating the S&P 500: What to Watch This Christmas Week If you look at the S&P 500's technical chart, you'll notice something intriguing: Friday's rebound wasn't just any rebound — it came with a surge in volume. The Index is flirting with its 50-day Moving Average, a key indicator with investors on edge. As long as macroeconomic data doesn’t throw any curveballs, there's a promising outlook for a festive rally in the stock market this Christmas week. My eyes are on the 6,000 mark for the SPX as a pivotal point. If the momentum continues, we might even see it touch 6,100, which could be the ceiling for this bullish run.
SP:SPX
by IrinaTK
1
SG10Y SG Govt Bond Yield UNCANNY heads up on US EquitiesHere is a rehash of the relationship between the Singapore 10Y Govt Bond Yields and US Equities ETF, SPY (Blue Line). Noted that when the SG10Y technically breaks out, the SPY technically breaks down, and vice versa. This is not 100% but happens an estimated 80% of the time, and recent occurences since September are marked out with bullish green or bearish red time lines, respective to SPY from the SG10Y leading indications. Just middle of this past week, the SG10Y spiked strongly and broke out, the next day saw the SPY tank significantly. In fact, the MACD for the SG10Y had already pre-warned of the breakout two days earlier! Given the current set up, as usual, I do my technical and charting projections. And in this case, it is clear that the Santa rally fizzled, year closign and next year opening should be weak until early February. Now, if this projection works as it should, then we would likely see a weak 2025 for the US equities... not only to take profit, but also offers opportunities to buy in at some point. (side note: as far back as 2020, 2025 was marked as the year of some resurgence of affliction from the neck upwards. It is a little sketchy, but it would very well be the surprise to tank the markets enough... watch for it)
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable volatility after reaching our critical support level of Mean Support 5870. Subsequently, it demonstrated a robust upward recovery. This development is anticipated to facilitate the impending phase of the renewed interim rebound, with the objective of retesting the Key Resistance level at 6090, thereby paving the way for continuing the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the Mean Support 5870 remains a great possibility.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Big Rally Closing Out 2024Over the course of the past 6+ months, I've been sharing research and content to try to help traders all over the world learn to profit by making better decisions. Some of the comments I've received have been very positive. But some of the comments I get are negative and some people have explained how they continue to lose money trading. In my mind, if you are gambling with your trading account - you will likely lose money. If you are actually trading (trying to book profits ASAP) and grow your account efficiently, you can make consistent money trading small amounts. In order to try to illustrate this example of trading, I created a $1000 trading account and limited myself to only trading $333 (MAX) per day. Here are the rules I set for myself... ------------------------------------------------- Trading Plan - Start with $1000 in capital - Break that capital into 1/3 Daily limits - Trade no more than 2-4 times a day - Try to target 1-2 short term-trades and 1-2 intermediate-term trades each day - Attempt to keep my losses limited (depending on market volatility) - If I lose more than $300, I will stop trading and reevaluate what I’m doing right/wrong The Daily Average Goal is 15-35% or more over a 30-day period of time. I will try to execute the trades early in the morning and share the trades with Ment.com members. I will attempt to pull the short-term trades off as early as possible (trying to lock in gains). I will attempt to let the intermediate-term trades run a bit longer (possibly more than 1-2 days) in an effort to catch bigger price swings. I will not attempt to chase market trends unless I see a very clear A-B-C type of price pattern. ------------------------------------------------- After just five days of trading, my account is up over $45% and I've never risked more than $250 - $300 per day trading Options. Anyone can do this - you just need the right tools and guidance. You can DOUBLE your $1000 trading account every 20 to 30 days if you are diligent, consistent, and really learn to trade (not Gamble). What is it going to take for you to learn how to trade efficiently? I'm trying to show you HOW to do it and HOW to learn the skills to improve your life. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation Which is when the next slowdown will hit. This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend. The stimulus was unprecedented Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago We are near the end! But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BallaJi
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-20 : GAP PotentialToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will present an opening price gap (in this case lower) and likely attempt to find support near these deep lows. I really want to point out how my Anomaly call, nearly 45+ days ago, really played out perfectly. It is so difficult for me to try to explain what I do with my research and analysis - but ultimately I simply call what I see based on the data. The last few days have prompted me to really push my efforts to continue to deliver superior research and analysis for my followers and subscribers. Ultimately, it is about helping people learn to become more profitable and learn to wait for the best trade setups. Gold & Silver are moving into a CRUSH pattern today. This could be a BIG MOVE for metals - and I believe the move will be to the upside. Don't get married to this move yet. The bottom is still setting up for metals. Bitcoin is collapsing through the EPP pattern. The ultimate low setup could still be a move below $90k, so be prepared for more downward trending throughout the end of 2024. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
SP500 / Bearish Momentum is under control...S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped another 1.7% and still has bearish momentum. As long as it trades below 5863, it will touch 5803 and 5781. so the consolidation will be between 5863 and 5781 till breaking, it is possible to do a correction till 5863 and then will drop. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5835 Resistance Levels: 5863, 5894, 5932 Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5734 Trend Outlook: Downward by stability below 5863 Bullish correction toward 5863 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Downward pressure on S&P 500 Index intensified past daysYesterday's sell-off damaged the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. While we initially saw a bounce back at the opening, it didn't hold. This makes the 5925 level a critical point to watch as we head toward the end of the year. For those keeping an eye on the charts, a trendline has been intact since the low in October 2023. Although it was breached during the August downturn, we managed to rally back into the bullish channel that's been forming since the fourth quarter of 2023. This channel offers support around the 5800 mark, and I anticipate this level will hold as we close out the year. Should we dip further, the following support levels to watch are 5690 and 5525. While I don't foresee us dropping to these lower levels before year-end, it's essential to acknowledge the potential downside risk. The market sentiment shifted following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, giving sellers the upper hand for the first time since the summer.
SP:SPX
by IrinaTK
Rate Cut Disappoints: Stocks and Gold Experience Sharp Declines◉ Abstract On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, marking its third cut in a row. However, the Fed also said it might not cut rates much more in the future because it expects the economy to grow stronger and inflation to continue. This cautious message worried investors, causing a sharp drop in the stock market. The S&P 500 fell about 2.96%, its biggest one-day loss since August. Gold prices also dropped by around 1.6%. The declines in both stocks and gold show that investors are feeling uncertain about the economy and are rethinking their investments based on the Fed's outlook. Continue reading the full article: ◉ Introduction On December 18, 2024, both the S&P 500 and gold experienced significant declines, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and market reactions to economic forecasts. ◉ Federal Reserve's Decision ● The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is typically a positive move for equities and commodities like gold. ● However, the Fed signalled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, expecting stronger economic growth and persistent inflation. ● This cautious outlook raised concerns about the possibility of limited future rate cuts, which spooked investors. ◉ Market Reactions 1. Stock Market Decline ● The S&P 500 fell by approximately 2.96%, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since August 5th. ● The market's reaction reflected a realization that previous optimistic expectations about aggressive rate cuts were misplaced. 2. Gold's Decline ● Gold prices dropped sharply, with an intraday decline of about 1.6%. ● Gold, while a safe-haven asset, is less desirable in a rising rate environment due to increased opportunity costs. ● With the Fed's indication of fewer future rate cuts, investors shifted away from gold. ◉ Overall Market Sentiment The simultaneous decline in both equities and gold can be attributed to a broader market sentiment that reacted negatively to the Fed's cautious outlook on inflation and growth prospects. This created a risk-off environment where investors were uncertain about both stock valuations and commodity holdings.
SP:SPX
by NaranjCapital
1
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart). It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it. This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze). Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork. What now? Back up again or is it really heading down this time? Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-) Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash! Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again. I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward. Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening. I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend. Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now. Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern. $95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Futures Steady After Wall Street Slump on Fed Rate Cut OutlookFutures Steady After Wall Street Declines on Fed's View of Fewer Rate Cuts U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's revised projections, which include fewer-than-expected interest rate cuts and elevated inflation expectations for next year. These updates caused a significant sell-off on Wall Street the day before. On Wednesday, the Fed announced its forecast of only two 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts in 2024, halving its previous projection from September. The central bank also raised inflation expectations for the early months of the incoming administration. These adjustments triggered the steepest daily declines in the three major U.S. stock indices since August. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline of more than 3.5% due to the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates by only 25 bps. This decision created uncertainty and weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Today, the U.S. GDP report is a key event that could significantly impact the market. The GDP growth rate is projected to decline by 2.8% compared to the previous period. If the GDP data comes in below 2.8%, the market may turn bullish, potentially reaching 5971. If the GDP data exceeds 2.8%, the bearish trend could continue, with the S&P 500 targeting levels of 5885 and 5863. Key Levels Pivot Point: 5932 Resistance Levels: 5971, 5988, 6020 Support Levels: 5885, 5863, 5837 Trend Outlook Downward Trend: Likely to persist if the price remains below 5932. Upward Trend: Potential recovery if the price breaks above 5932.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 Will Go Up! Long! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 5,900.98. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,967.79 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:SPX500Long
by SignalProvider
2