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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update for 3-3-25 : Absolutely PerfectThis quick little update is for everyone who follows my research. Today was absolutely PERFECT in terms of my expectations and how the SPY moved so far today. A nearly perfect downward price trend targeting the 588 level. Now, we'll see if we get a base and a squeeze higher before the end of trading today. I'm so impressed with my ability to pinpoint these type of opportunities for everyone. Remember, trading is about taking the opportunity to position your assets for gains. Get some. And please share your success stories if you have them. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
16
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-3-25 : Up-Down-UP Pattern CounterToday's pattern, and Up-Down-Up in counter-trend mode, suggests the markets will attempt to move downward after the open and attempt to retrace some (or most) of Friday's gain. I do believe this downward price move is essential for the markets to build a moderate base before attempting to move higher into the march 11-16 topping pattern my research suggests will prompt another breakdown in price. Ultimately, these moves up and down over the past 30+ days are establishing a sideways (mega-phone type) price structure that I warned was likely to happen more than 90+ days ago (back in December 2024). What we are seeing right now is a rolling of price while uncertainty continues to drive capital away from technology, semis and innovation - moving into safety and security. This will continue until July or August 2025, then capital will suddenly shift back into risk-ON in my opinion. By the time everyone thinks the markets are breaking downward (crashing), that is when I think the markets will make a sudden shift toward growth and innovation as the US resumes a growth phase in late 2025 (carrying into 2026). Currently, we are in a minor little "pause/rally" phase after the last bout of selling. This rally will likely end sometime after March 11 - leading to a breakdown in price starting between 3-14 and 3-17. This is a trader's market. Gold/Silver appear to have found a footing and seem to be bouncing. We'll see if Gold/Silver move above critical resistance and continue to rally higher. BTCUSD has rebounded back to support/resistance, but has also moved into a new DUAL Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests increased price volatility for Bitcoin. I still believe we are moving into a very side-range consolidation pattern for Bitcoin. I suggest staying fairly cautious today and setting up some trades for the pause/rally I expect to carry through this week for the SPY/QQQ. No need to get too greedy on a Monday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ALong
by BradMatheny
6
What Would Happen to Bitcoin if Stocks Crash?I have read different speculations on what might happen to the price of Bitcoin if the stock market were to crash. I am going to answer this using statistics, correlations, and examples of events from market history. This post will not speculate on the current nor future price movements of Bitcoin and Stocks; only their connection. I will be using the Tradingview Bitcoin Index INDEX:BTCUSD and the S&P500 Index ETF AMEX:SPY What is a "Crash?" I use a common definition of a stock market "crash" as a short or long duration decline of -30% or more. I distinguish this from "correction" which I define as a -5% to -10% movement. I'll look at the true crashes but also include significant corrections for comparison. Time Range I chose the time range from 2014 to present for this study. Bitcoin did not reach a comparable level of maturity nor public awareness until after the 2013 bull cycle. Also the 2013 Stock Market was ridiculously bullish. How Often Do Bad Weeks Line Up? I took particularly down weeks for Stocks, -2.5% or more, and compared them to the same week for Bitcoin. 2 out of 3 Weeks where the stock market was down big... Bitcoin was down big. Furthermore, the average magnitude of Bitcoin's down move was more than twice that of Stocks. How Correlated is Bitcoin to Stocks? The Correlation Coefficient measure the way in which two instruments move together. A value 1.0 means that they move identically up and down while a value of -1.0 means they move exactly opposite. The correlation of Bitcoin to Stocks varies from week to week. However, Bitcoin is far more often and to a greater degree positively correlated to Stocks. At the extreme Bitcoin is more highly correlated to Stocks than it is ever negatively correlated (0.93 versus -0.76) Bitcoin is move often positively correlated to stocks. 75% of weeks Bitcoin and Stocks are positively correlated 0.70 is considered "high correlation" and 33% of weeks exhibit high correlation On the contrary, less than 2% of weeks are ever highly negatively correlated Historical Crashes Now we will go into some narratives around historic events surrounding large down moves in Stocks and how Bitcoin reacted. 2021 2021 was a bad year for both Stocks and Bitcoin. The decline of Bitcoin began prior to the then All Time High of Stocks but both decidedly went through a bear market together. Of note; while Stocks declined -27.47% from the high to low over that same period Bitcoin declined -61.83%. COVID COVID was a major but short "risk-off" event in both markets. Stocks declined -35.45% from prior high to subsequent low and Bitcoin declined -63.09% from its respective high and low. 2018 Going back further in time we can look a less severe Stocks declines in 2018. The 2018 market narrative was dominated by rate decisions with the Fed raising rates 4 times that year. The initial correction at the beginning of the year happened within Bitcoin's decline from its 2017 All Time High. Within this context while Stocks gave up -11.76% Bitcoin fell by more than half. Later in the year as Bitcoin began to trade in a very tight range Stocks had a -20.47% decline. While the two did not coincide in their start times it is within the context of the longer Stocks crash that Bitcoin broke lower for another -53.62% Conclusion and Analysis I want to note here that Bitcoin was created AFTER "the big one" of 2008. There has never in Bitcoin's history been a true multi-year bear market for Stocks to compare. However, we have ample evidence to suggest that given a crash in Stocks it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will decline as well to a magnitude of double or more. This happens because the market as a whole views Bitcoin as a risk asset with much higher volatility than Stocks as a whole. When there is ample liquidity and positive sentiment they both perform well. When liquidity is constrained and there is negative sentiment they both perform poorly. Liquidity and speculation are what drive them both. This connection has not changed in recent times and has likely increased due to the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF and publicly traded companies exposing their share prices to the volatility of Bitcoin. Trade wisely.
I
by norok
2
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. ​ 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 3: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.​ 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.​ Trading Economics 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
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by TrendTao
Weekly plan: ESH2025NYSE:ES FUTURES 3/3/2025 6012>> 6056>>> 6083-93 Weekly pivot: 5970 , Now Trading @ 5957 5919>> 5878>>> 5828 CONTEXT: NYSE:ES closed Friday's session with massive spike to the upside. Now NYSE:ES is back inside the previous balance zone that extends to 214 points range with 6056 for half back, however we need to be cautious since daily chart still is One Time Framing Down (OTFD) which would end if NYSE:ES is able to recapture or trade above 5971, at that point we will need to redraw daily balance zone. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
Selling Premium Going into Costco EarningsGiven Costco’s historical tendency for minimal post-earnings stock movement, along with inflated IV in the options market, selling premium via a bear call spread is a high-probability, risk- managed strategy to profit from an expected IV crush and minimal price movement following earnings. Key Points Supporting the Thesis: 1. Historical Price Movement: Over the past 4 years, Costco’s stock has experienced an average post-earnings price movement of only 1.24%. The majority of moves have been within a modest range of -1% to +2%. This indicates that despite earnings announcements, the stock tends to remain within a predictable price range, minimizing the potential for significant directional price swings. 2. Implied Volatility and Overpricing of Options: Currently, the options market is pricing in a 4.6% move for Costco’s stock post-earnings. Given Costco’s historical price movement patterns, this is an overestimation of potential volatility. IV tends to collapse after earnings announcements. 3. Costco’s High Valuation: Costco is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 61, which is significantly higher than historical levels. This suggests that the stock is already expensive relative to its earnings potential, making it less likely to experience a massive upward movement after earnings. The high valuation also means that even strong earnings may not drive significant upside, further increasing the likelihood of a muted post-earnings reaction. 4. Earnings Catalysts and Market Behavior: Costco’s earnings reports historically have had limited impact on the stock’s price due to the company’s stable revenue and earnings growth. Investors have already priced in much of the growth potential, leading to minimal surprise reactions to earnings releases. The combination of low historical price movement and high IV makes this a prime environment for selling premium, as the likelihood of large moves is low, while option prices remain high.
NASDAQ:COST
by KevinBurrows
2
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 594.00 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 602.54 Safe Stop Loss - 590.04 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
ALong
by AnabelSignals
1
SPY - support & resistant areas for today Feb 28, 2025Here are the key support and resistance levels for SPY today, indicating potential reversal or consolidation points. A bounce off these levels may signal long (buy) or short (sell) positions. These levels are calculated using mathematical models relevant for today's trading session. They may change in the future. If you find this helpful and want daily insights at 9:30 AM, please boost this post and follow me. Your engagement supports continued updates. Thank you!
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by OnePunchMan91
3
SPY/QQQ Plan your Trade For 2-28 : Gap Up - LowerToday's pattern suggests the markets will open with a slight GAP UP (higher), then transition into a downward price trend throughout the rest of the day. After yesterday's deep selling, I suspect there may be a bit more of an uptrend in early trading. The 584-585 level on the SPY was hit. That was my original projected downside target for the Feb 21-24 breakdown in price. We've also seen Bitcoin collapse a little over 25%. I believe this deep selling in Bitcoin prompted a "sell-everything" type of breakdown in the SPY/QQQ and other assets (gold/silver). Once this move subsides/bases, I believe we'll see 2-3 days of basing/bottoming, then a reasonably strong reversion rally in the SPY/QQQ as the sell-everything fear settles. This would be a good time to look for initial "anchor" positions in certain assets related to a moderate recovery rally between now and March 11-14 - maybe a bit later. Overall, we are moving solidly into my expanding megaphone pattern and should continue to see increased price volatility. The next phase of the market trends is a moderate recovery rally. Then, as we approach the March 21-24 breakdown phase, we will see more selling. Get ready for a base/bottom setup. Then, we'll see the price move into a recovery phase, and the SPY may target 600 to 604 before topping again. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.28.2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 PCE Inflation Data Release 📈: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is set to be released. Economists predict a 0.3% rise in January and a 2.5% year-over-year growth. This data will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments. 🇺🇸🛒 Consumer Spending Trends 🛒: Personal income and spending data for January will be released, offering a glimpse into consumer behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.1% rise in personal spending. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Friday, Feb 28: 💰 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💰: Reports on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE Price Index for January. 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity, providing insights into the real estate market's health. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
ALong
by TrendTao
5
$QQQ Getting Over Sold?NASDAQ:QQQ I am stalking a bounce on the Q’s. From an intraday high (all time high) to an intraday low on this chart is about 6.2%. I would expect at least a dead cat bounce in the short term, but the market may not deliver for me. Having said that, I have an alert set on this 30-minute chart on the Downtrend line. “If” that triggers, I will go to a 5- or 10-minute chart to see if there is a good risk reward entry. And if I take the trade, it will be meant to be a day trade (of which I am not a fan) but it could turn to a swing trade “if” it gives me at least a 2% cushion. I know I have a lot of "ifs" on this one, but isn't that the way it is? I had posted another chart on the NASDAQ:QQQ index with a link below. I had said in that one that a pullback to the 510 “area” would not negate the longer-term uptrend. But one must be open to all outcomes.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by jaxdog
SPY - support & resistant areas for today Feb 27, 2025** AMEX:SPY : Daily Support and Resistance Levels** Here are the key support and resistance points for SPY for today. These levels are crucial as they define areas where the price may reverse or consolidate. A bounce off these support or resistance zones can signal potential long (buy) or short (sell) positions for traders. These levels have been calculated using mathematical models and future forecasting techniques, ensuring that they are relevant for the trading day. Please note that these levels are only applicable for today’s trading session and may change in the future. If you find this information helpful and would like me to share these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, please show your support by boosting this post and following me. Your engagement helps me understand the value of this content. If this post does not receive more than 10 boosts, I will reconsider continuing with these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
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by OnePunchMan91
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-27: Weekday FLUSH PatternToday's Weekday FLUSH pattern is similar to a CRUSH pattern. It usually represents a very wide-range price bar with the potential for a big breakdown or breakaway type of price action. Given yesterday's fairly wide price action and the NVDA earnings last night - I would not be surprised to see quite a bit of profit-taking in early trading, leading to an initial downward price trend, then moving into a basing/bottoming phase after 12-1PM ET. In other words, a fairly large DIP/Sell-off leading to a base/bottom, then flipping bullish through the end of the day today. Overall, I believe the SPY/QQQ will continue to try to push higher in the Excess Phase Peak pattern - reaching a peak between March 5-10 (only about 5-7+ trading days away). Thus, we don't have a big rally ahead of us - only about 3-5+ days of a fairly strong rally over the next 5-10 trading days. Now that the selling pressure has abated, metals should be forming a base or bottom. Get ready for an explosive move higher. BTCUSD has broken downward and is not in the larger consolidation phase. This phase will likely continue for at least 2+ weeks before we attempt to move into the search for the Ultimate Low (likely below $75k). Buckle up. Things are about to get very interesting. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ALong
by BradMatheny
5
$MES1! Charting to Purchase $SPY 1-DTE Call Option, 15-min TFContract: AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c Entry: $2.03 on 1:09pm Exit: $1.26 on 1:58pm (-$77, -38%) So after seeing price decrease 0.75%, 45 pints, 179 pips in 2 hours from $6,023.75 to $5,980 (support area), I decided to purchase a call expiring today on Feb 27, 2025. On the 15min and 5min I noticed price bounced around the $5,980 area and thought price would reverse to the upside. 1) Yesterday on Feb 26 @ 1:09pm, I entered AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c @$2.03 because of the drop and potential reversal. On the 5min: - candle had made a higher low - became an inside (1) candle #thestrat - began consolidating & hit support around 5,980. 2) When placing my stop loss, I mistakenly set up my option call to sell when AMEX:SPY (the stock) touched or went above $3.05 instead of programming the option call to sell when the specific option call ( AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c) touched or went above $3.05. You live and you learn. On to the next play.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by Brandonthrives