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SPY S&P 500 ETF Options Ahead of the CPI ReportIf you haven`t shorted the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data for the month of November 2022 on December 13, 2022, at 8.30am ET. The rate of inflation is the most important data that will impact the Fed’s coming rate hike decision. Now looking at the SPY options chain Ahead of the CPI Report, i would buy the $387 strike price Puts with 2023-1-20 expiration date for about $8.96 premium. If the options turn out to be profitable Before the CPI Report, i would sell at least 50%. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
4
SPX Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: it's been a few weeks that the price action has been really tricky to count. Until yesterday, we had the idea that we have peaked for wave b of Z and have started wave c of Z, which was invalidated yesterday. Update: with the higher high made yesterday, I am considering the following scenario: we have completed a triple zigzag in wave b. One thing that is worth noting is a fact I mentioned on the update of Nov. 14th: I have 4132.75 as the potential target for wave b peak . The peak of yesterday was 4132.22! Note: A very important challenge for the readers is to prove this statement to practice HEW: the hourly count I published on Dec. 8th and the current hourly count has the exact same structure of subwaves. So, we have basically not changed a lot on the hourly count, just the labels were changed because of the higher high made yesterday. Note: I repeat a valid point made on my Dec. 1st update: "There is a very important point in this count, as I warned before, this count can turn into an impulsive wave with equal probability and validity, meaning the bottom is in (this is a fact in the Harmonic Elliott wave theory that a triple zigzag can be also an impulsice wave since they both have the same structure of subwaves). How do we know which count is playing out? for now, we don't really care, both counts point to the fact that we should still head higher and get rejected probably mid-December to go lower. The structure and extent of that pullback is what determines the correct scenario." Note: the broadening triangle on NDQ is a very bearish formation, but it needs breakdown through the lower trendline to confirm.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by bamdadsalarieh
Likely Bearish Confluence - S&P500, VIX, DXY & EURUSD Powells recent remarks gave the S&P the boost it needed to test the weekly bearish trend line and now price action is also at a strong horizontal area of resistance. Other indices such as the FTSE have retraced most of the drawdown from when markets started falling at the start of the year. The S&P also is currently testing its Weekly 50ema. The VIX, which is the volatility index of the S&P is also heavily oversold and is sitting right back in a large area of support, as would be expected from the S&P moving higher in recent weeks. DXY, which has seen a pretty strong pullback after the recent bear market equity rally is now back at Weekly support, which coincides with getting very close to its Weekly 50ema. The confluence seen is also reflected in EURUSD, which is retesting its Weekly 50ema and a weekly horizontal resistance level. At current the confluence in the markets is pretty clean. Powell seemed to suggest that next months rate increase would be 50 basis points and the markets seemed to really bounce from that news. However, Powell was hardly dovish. If anything it seems to me that the recent rally after Powells comments enabled the markets to move up to a good area for bearish positioning. Short S&P, Long VIX, Short EURUSD and Long DXY.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Tall_Short
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations on the previous update: Completed wave c of (x) as expected and now we should head higher to form the last zigzag and complete wave b. Update: the price action followed the expected path precisely. Now, based on the structure, I see that we should still go higher. Wave 5 of a of (z) of b will form today, then we will have a pullback to test the broken descending trendline as wave b of (z) of b and again rally higher to complete wave (z). What are points of interest to consider as wave (z) peak? (~4217-4253) since the update of Nov. 14th, we had 4132.75 as a potential target, which now I think is going to be surpassed. Based on the pullback of wave a of Z, we get these points: 4208.75, 4245, 4253. Based on the volume profile of wave a of Z, we have 4276 as a previous POC and 4217 as the VAH. There is a very important point in this count, as I warned before, this count can turn into an impulsive wave with equal probability and validity, meaning the bottom is in (this is a fact in the Harmonic Elliott wave theory that a triple zigzag can be also an impulsice wave since they both have the same structure of subwaves). How do we know which count is playing out? for now, we don't really care, both counts point to the fact that we should still head higher and get rejected probably mid-December to go lower. The structure and extent of that pullback is what determines the correct scenario.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of the previous update: Developing wave b as a triple zigzag Second wave (x) is a flat with its wave 5 of c still missing. Wave b can be complete as a double zigzag and the confirmation for that is if we break the ascending trendline on the hourly chart. Update: not much to update. We completed wave c of (x) as expected and now we should head higher to form the last zigzag and complete wave b. Again, don't forget that it is possible that we have peaked: we wait for the breakdown through the ascending trendline to confirm that.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the last update, I expected that we are in wave 4 of c of (y) of b. So the basic idea was that we needed a pullback followed by a final push higher. Update: I am still having the same idea, but with a little bit of relabeling to my hourly count: I think we are developing wave b as a triple zigzag and right now, the second wave (x) is developing as a flat with its wave 5 of c still missing. Note that wave b can be complete as a double zigzag and the confirmation for that is if we break the ascending trendline on the hourly chart.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: the hourly count that I published yesterday was the bearish case that we have peaked for wave b, with a very short wave V of (c) of b. However, we did not see any follow through on the bear side and the move down from the Nov. 15th high is not impulsive. Now, I am reconsidering the same hourly count as before. Update: we are in wave V of (c) of b. I have the same target as before: 4132.75...note that this market is so fragile that any news can through it on a different path, aka bearish count.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh