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Spylong

SPY New All Time Highs By Year End. 8% No Recession Jerome Powell thanks retail for shorting the M2 debasement. Now watch in suspense the next months unfold of non stop SPY rising and the market try to figure out what's going wrong. Welcome to the roaring 23s and welcome to start of the final bubble. Once that 8% gap is taken out I suspect news to start breaking it and the "TLT bulls" will get a shock when capital leaves money market funds and flows back into the growth sector. Believing the "recession nonsense" is almost like believing the roman denarius aureus did not lose any silver content. We've been in a recession since QE started in 2009, the currency will always debase to defend asset value even though it makes it weaker, this is how's it will be until the end of this system.
SP:SPXLong
by FederalXBT
Possible SPX - Inverse H&S Long IdeaSP:SPX Bullish outlook on SPX ( S & P 500) - Golden Cross on Daily Timeframe (50 Days MA crossing 200 Days MA), - Possilbe hike Pause by the Fed at March/April meeting, - General negative sentiment and large short positions that would need covering, - General company earnings that mostly beat earlier estimates, - Generally safer environment to invest in US registered equities, - Mass Layoffs that will eventually decrease costs and consequently increase earnings per share, Things to watch : - Appleearning release end of today (as holder of largest weight) - Fed minutes of January 2023 Meeting, - Support Line at around 3,900 level, - DXY level 105 and already happened Death Cross (refer to my earlier DXY chart), As always DYOR and stay safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TheHopinionist
1
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AMEX:SPYLong
by bryandowningqln
SPY SPDR SP500 Long Second-Largest Weekly InflowSector-Financial/Banking ETFs Log Second-Largest Weekly Inflow This Year Technicals: Trend long bullish Trend continuation confirmation During LSEG Lipper’s fund flows week that ended June 21, 2023, investors were overall net redeemers of fund assets (including both conventional funds and ETFs) for the first week in three, withdrawing a net of $29.7 billion. Taxable bond funds (+$2.8 billion) and tax-exempt bond funds (+$672 million) attracted new capital. Equity funds (-$17.0 billion) and money market funds (-$16.1 billion) suffered outflows on the week. Index Performance At the close of LSEG Lipper’s fund flows week, U.S. broad-based equity indices reported negative returns - the Russell 2000 (-0.59%), Nasdaq (-0.91%), S&P 500 (-0.16%), and DJIA (-0.08%) were all in the red. For the DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, this was the first negative return over the last four weeks. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Total Return Index (+0.33%) recorded its fourth straight weekly gain. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Total Return Index (+0.64%) logged its third week in the black in four. Overseas indices traded down - Nikkei 225 (-1.61%), Shanghai Composite (-1.45%), FTSE 100 (-0.29%), and DAX (-0.85%). Rates/Yields The 10-two Treasury yield spread remained negative (-0.99), marking the two hundred and fifty second straight trading session with an inverted yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.28% on the week. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average (FRM) decreased for the third straight week - currently at 6.67%. Both the United States Dollar Index (DXY, -0.85%) and VIX (-5.15%) fell over the course of the week. Market Recap Our fund flows week kicked off on Thursday, June 15, with the weekly initial jobless claims data showing seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000. The four-week moving average was 255,750 - an increase of 8,500 from the previous week’s revised average and the highest four-week average level since November 13, 2021. The U.S. Census Bureau also announced the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report highlighting estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales were up 0.3% from the previous month and up 1.6% from 12-months ago - many forecasts had a monthly decline (-0.1%). Equity markets fared well on the day, both the S&P 500 (+1.22%) and Nasdaq (+1.15%) logged their sixth straight daily gain following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement that the Fed will not increase interest rates this earlier week. On Friday, June 16, the University of Michigan published their consumer sentiment report detailing an increase in the U.S. to 63.9, marking the highest level in four months. These figures also beat forecasts, reflecting there may be greater market optimism than originally thought with the debt ceiling drama passed (for now) and inflation trending downward (for now). Treasury yields rose on the day, led by the five-year yield (+1.89%). Equity markets fell on the day - Russell 2000 (-0.73%), Nasdaq (-0.68%), S&P 500 (-0.37%), and DJIA (-0.32%). On Monday, June 19, markets were closed in the U.S. in recognition of Juneteenth. On Tuesday, June 20, President Joe Biden stated that U.S. and China ties are on the “right trail,” saying that progress was made during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s two-day Beijing trip. The President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping seconded Biden’s comments and said, “China respects U.S. interests and does not seek to challenge or displace the U.S.” He added that the, “U.S. needs to respect China and must not hurt China’s legitimate rights and interests.” The U.S. Census Bureau published its Monthly New Residential Construction that showed privately owned housing starts in May were 21.7 percent above the revised April number. Privately owned housing completions in May were also up (+9.5%) above April’s revised estimate. Both equity markets and Treasury yields fell on the day - DJIA (-0.72%) and S&P 500 (-0.47%), while the 10-year Treasury yield fell (-0.98%). Our fund flows week wrapped up Wednesday, June 21. Equity markets fell for the third straight day - Nasdaq (-1.21%), S&P 500 (-0.52%), DJIA (-0.30%), and Russell 2000 (-0.20%). Fed Chair Powell came out and insinuated that the central bank’s rate hikes are not done this year, saying, “Earlier in the process speed was very important. It’s not very important now…Given how far we’ve come, it may make sense to move rates higher but to do so at a more moderate pace.” The two-year Treasury yield increased by 0.38% on the day, while the three-, five-, 10-, and 30-year yields all fell. Exchange-Traded Equity Funds Exchange-traded equity funds recorded $12.1 billion in weekly net outflows, marking the second weekly outflow in three and third largest this year. The macro group posted a 0.34% loss on the week, its first week in the red over the last four. Growth/value large cap ETFs (-$6.2 billion), growth/value small cap ETFs (-$2.4 billion), and sector other (-$1.5 billion) were the largest outflows among equity ETF subgroups. Growth/value large cap ETFs reported their largest weekly outflow in 12 weeks while realizing their first weekly loss in four. Sector financial/banking ETFs (+$949 million), growth/value aggressive ETFs (+$366 million), and sector real estate ETFs (-$79 million) were the largest inflows under the macro group. Despite logging back-to-back weeks of negative performance, sector financial/banking ETFs posted three straight weeks of inflows. This was also the subgroup’s second largest weekly intake on the year. Over the past fund flows week, the top two equity ETF flow attractors were iShares: Core S&P 500 (IVV, +$2.7 billion) and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP, +$1.2 billion). Meanwhile, the bottom two equity ETFs in terms of weekly outflows were SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY, -$6.0 billion) and iShares: Russell 2000 ETF (IWM, -$2.6 billion). Exchange-Traded Fixed Income Funds Exchange-traded taxable fixed income funds observed a $3.1 billion weekly inflow - the macro group’s sixth weekly inflow in seven. Fixed income ETFs reported a weekly return of negative 0.35% on average, their third week in the black in four. Corporate investment grade ETFs (+$1.8 billion), government Treasury ETFs (+$771 million), and flexible funds ETFs (+$325 million) were the top taxable fixed income subgroups to post inflows over the week. Corporate investment grade ETFs have logged six weeks of inflows over the last seven while realizing back-to-back weeks of plus-side returns. International & global debt ETFs (-$45 million), corporate high yield ETF (-$13 million), and balanced funds ETFs (-$7 million) were the top taxable fixed income subgroups to witness outflows on the week. International & global debt witnessed their first weekly outflow over the last four, despite four straight weeks of gains. Municipal bond ETFs reported a $514 million inflow over the week, marking their first outflow in the three weeks. The subgroup realized a positive 0.27% gain, marking fourth straight week in the black. iShares: iBoxx $Investment Grade Corporates (LQD, +$1.5 billion) and Wisdom Tree: Floating Rate Treasury ETF (USFR, +$436 million) attracted the largest amounts of weekly net new money for taxable fixed income ETFs. On the other hand, iShares: AMEX:HIGH Yield Corporates ETF (HYG, -$626 million) and Schwab US TIPS ETF (SCHP, -$366 million) suffered the largest weekly outflows under all taxable fixed income ETFs. Conventional Equity Funds Conventional equity funds (ex-ETFs) witnessed weekly outflows (-$4.4 billion) for the seventy-second straight week. Conventional equity funds posted a weekly return of negative 0.27%, the first week of losses in four. Growth/value large cap (-$2.0 billion), international equity funds (-$634 million), and equity income funds (-$624 million) were the largest subgroup outflows under conventional equity funds. Growth/value large cap funds have suffered 26 consecutive weeks of outflows while observing a 0.18% loss on average. The four-week net flow moving average has remained negative for 74 weeks. Sector technology conventional funds (+$18 million) was the only subgroup to report weekly inflows. This was the third week of inflows over the past for this subgroup. Conventional Fixed Income Funds Conventional taxable fixed income funds realized a weekly outflow of $313 million - marking their first weekly outflow over the past three weeks. The macro group logged a positive 0.28% on average - their fourth straight week of gains. Conventional corporate investment grade funds (+$415 million), corporate high yield funds (+$278 million), and government mortgage funds (+$23 million) reported the largest weekly outflows under taxable fixed income conventional funds. This was the third straight weekly inflow for conventional corporate investment grade funds. Conventional flexible funds (-$661 million), international & global debt funds (-$144 million), and balanced funds (-$96 million) were the top taxable fixed income macro group to produce outflows. Flexible funds have suffered 15 weeks of outflows in the last 16, despite four consecutive weeks of gains. Municipal bond conventional funds (ex-ETFs) returned a positive 0.28% over the fund flows week - their seventh weekly gain in nine. The subgroup experienced $158 million in inflow, marking the second inflow in the past three weeks.
SLong
by DaveBrascoFX
SPY: Support Becomes Resistance (Macro)SPY has reached the .618 Fib retrace level and we are definitely at a crossroads. If price break through this level and flips resistance into support, then the macro measured move on the monthly, puts price in the $700s. If resistance holds then we have a measured move to the $330 level, before hypothetically resuming this trend. If resistance holds and we resume our downtrend over the next few months than it is hard to say how things will play out from there. The upward channel could be considered broken and we form a new trend going forward. Although, another measured move down to the $330 level does seem to form a macro bullfrog on the SPY which is bullish. Given the warnings that the macro data has been flashing as far as manufacturing and china and consumer credit card debt and drop in savings accounts, etc. It is very likely resistance will hold and we continue downward temporarily from here. It is honestly a best case scenario because equities are fairly expensive right now.
AMEX:SPY
by Goontata84
1
$SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST)AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST) Next Target $440.08 If you had invested $1,000 in AMEX:SPY on June 10, 2013, at a price of $164.80 per share, you would have been able to purchase 6.06 shares. As of June 6, 2023, the price of SPY was $428.03 per share. If you had held onto those shares and not reinvested the dividends, your investment would have grown to $28,997.22. This represents a total return of 190.06% over the 9.99 year period. SPY paid a total of $49.99 per share in dividends over this period of ten years. Therefore, if you had held onto those shares and not reinvested the dividends, you would have received a total of $302.94 in dividend payments. However, if you had reinvested all dividends, your investment would have grown to $31,289.39. This represents a total return of 212.78% over the 9.99 year period. This week is packed with news and events. The FOMC is the big one of the week, but we also have CPI, PPI, Bond Auctions, Oil Reserves (which may be important with the OPEC cut), and plenty of other big news. Any unexpected changes or hints about future interest rate decisions could significantly influence the stock market behavior due to their implications for rates, timing, and monetary printing. *Disclaimer* The information is purely for *entertainment* purposes, and is not meant to be, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Do Your Own Due Diligence (DYODD)
AMEX:SPYLong
by VIN786
SPY S&P 500 Index ETF and the Debt Ceiling DealThe political climate is favorable for a small rally of SPY, the S&P 500 Index ETF, towards the next resistance level of $430. After several weeks of tense negotiations, President Joe Biden and House Republicans have reached an agreement in principle to address the debt limit and cap spending. The debt-ceiling deal is now finalized, and here are significant parts of the agreement: First, the agreement suspends our $31 Trillion debt ceiling until January 2025, providing some relief and avoiding immediate concerns. Additionally, the agreement ends the pause on student loan repayments, allowing borrowers to resume their payments. This decision aims to ensure the stability of the student loan system and address the long-term financial implications. Furthermore, the agreement includes stricter work requirements for low-income and older Americans who receive food stamps. These requirements are intended to encourage self-sufficiency and help ensure that federal aid benefits are effectively utilized. Regarding IRS funding, the agreement entails a $20 billion reduction from the initially proposed $80 billion budget. This reduction specifically targets the allocation meant to crack down on tax evasion by wealthy individuals and corporations. Moreover, the deal puts an end to the ongoing freeze on monthly student loan payments and interest. It also introduces restrictions on the President's ability to reintroduce such a freeze in the future. To avoid contentious debates until after the next presidential election, the agreement suspends the debt limit until January 2025. This decision provides a temporary relief from potential conflicts surrounding the debt limit. The agreement also implements new work conditions for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, raising the age limit for work requirements to 54. This measure aims to promote workforce participation and enhance the effectiveness of federal aid programs. Overall, this comprehensive agreement addresses various aspects of the debt limit and spending caps, aiming to strike a balance between fiscal responsibility and supporting those in need. My overall outlook is still bearish and i think the small rally could easily turn into a bull trap. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1